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Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks - Business (4) - Nairaland

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Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by jomoh: 7:54pm On Aug 02, 2015
stagger:


How will demand for dollars reduce when we still import petroleum products and a lot of school fees remittances to schools abroad still occurs?

Did you read the part where I talked about resumption of refineries. Go back and read it.

Yes we still remit school fees abroad but I can categorically say that the total school fees remittance abroad in a whole year can never be up to the amount we spend on refined petroleum products quarterly.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by jomoh: 7:56pm On Aug 02, 2015
989900:


What do you make of Boyo's assertion?

Kindly go thru the links too.

"Going forward, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be more responsible in the management of the monetary policy. For instance, the CBN’s harebrained policy of monetising the monthly, statutory foreign exchange allocations due to the various tiers of government, distorts our macroeconomy on so many levels.

It creates excess liquidity by flooding the money market in one fell swoop with a surfeit of Nigerian Naira that now turns around to shop, sometimes inordinately, for foreign exchange, goods and services, etc, thereby worsening the exchange rate and inflation rate at the same time.
"
--Henry Boyo

https://www.nairaland.com/844884/solution-fuel-subsidy-wahala-look

http://eaglereporters.com/2015/06/01/buhari-vs-a-clueless-mpc/

Will get back to you once I go through it.

SangoCrusader:
@Jomoh

You too, please share some of that high grade weed with me.

You must be high as a kite to believe these policies will have any effectiveness whatsoever. My advice is to jump ship and convert your total bank balance of N242 to $1 before it is too late.

Bro no be you give me the weed ni. E don finish for where u dey get am?

But on a more serious note, I will like to see your contrary and detailed analysis as to why you think it won't work.

Anything short of it then maybe you should come back to this weed you introduced me to and stop taking that new expired weed, its not good for your head. grin grin

2 Likes

Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by Mcslize: 2:07am On Aug 03, 2015
Anyone wit any idea? I bought a Tab on aliexpress. Weneva som1 call once it rings d time wil automatically start counting even wen I don't pick d call. How can I remove it frm dat mode?
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by SangoCrusader: 4:55am On Aug 03, 2015
@jomoh

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21656700-desperate-measures-bank-toothpick-alert

Some more homework for you... that article encapsulates everything wrong with the nitpicking job Emefiele is trying to do. He is starting to earn a reputation as a buffoon and his failure at stabilizing the Naira is evidence of his buffoonery.

Here is the article from the Economist:

CENTRAL bankers may talk in martial terms of defending currencies against bloodthirsty speculators, but they seldom suffer wounds more grievous than a bruising of their egos. They can, however, cause untold harm to economies, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is doing in puffing up its exchange rate.

The naira has been hit hard by a fall in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export. The official exchange rate has slumped by almost 20% over the past year to about 196 naira per dollar. The black market rate, a more accurate gauge, is close to 230. Instead of allowing the naira to devalue, the central bank is trying to defend it by blocking imports. It has drawn up a list of disfavoured goods, and will not grant foreign exchange to import them.

Godwin Emefiele, the governor of the central bank, said he wants to conserve foreign reserves (which have fallen by about a fifth over the past year and now cover only six months of imports) and stimulate local production. “Nigeria cannot attain its true [potential] by simply importing everything,” he said.


The hit list appears to have been drawn up by someone wandering around a home and a building site and randomly pointing at items. It includes Indian incense, toothpicks and wire rods as well as more obvious luxuries such as private jets (demand for which could be slashed by simply barring government officials from flying in them). It also includes basics such as rice and tinned fish. Nigeria does not produce enough of these things to feed itself, but no matter. The nation must be shielded from foreign sardines.

Economists find the policy baffling. Central banks usually prop up their currencies if they are worried about inflation, or allow them to devalue to depress imports and stimulate exports. Nigeria, by contrast, appears to be set on achieving both an uncompetitive exchange rate and higher inflation. Whereas many investors were impressed by the previous CBN governor, Lamido Sanusi, who was sacked for exposing corruption, they fret about the harm being inflicted by the current one. Some wonder which would be worse for Nigeria: allowing him to serve the remaining four years of his term or undermining the independence of the central bank by sacking him.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by jomoh: 9:55am On Aug 03, 2015
SangoCrusader:
@jomoh

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21656700-desperate-measures-bank-toothpick-alert

Some more homework for you... that article encapsulates everything wrong with the nitpicking job Emefiele is trying to do. He is starting to earn a reputation as a buffoon and his failure at stabilizing the Naira is evidence of his buffoonery.

Here is the article from the Economist:

CENTRAL bankers may talk in martial terms of defending currencies against bloodthirsty speculators, but they seldom suffer wounds more grievous than a bruising of their egos. They can, however, cause untold harm to economies, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is doing in puffing up its exchange rate.

The naira has been hit hard by a fall in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export. The official exchange rate has slumped by almost 20% over the past year to about 196 naira per dollar. The black market rate, a more accurate gauge, is close to 230. Instead of allowing the naira to devalue, the central bank is trying to defend it by blocking imports. It has drawn up a list of disfavoured goods, and will not grant foreign exchange to import them.

Godwin Emefiele, the governor of the central bank, said he wants to conserve foreign reserves (which have fallen by about a fifth over the past year and now cover only six months of imports) and stimulate local production. “Nigeria cannot attain its true [potential] by simply importing everything,” he said.


The hit list appears to have been drawn up by someone wandering around a home and a building site and randomly pointing at items. It includes Indian incense, toothpicks and wire rods as well as more obvious luxuries such as private jets (demand for which could be slashed by simply barring government officials from flying in them). It also includes basics such as rice and tinned fish. Nigeria does not produce enough of these things to feed itself, but no matter. The nation must be shielded from foreign sardines.

Economists find the policy baffling. Central banks usually prop up their currencies if they are worried about inflation, or allow them to devalue to depress imports and stimulate exports. Nigeria, by contrast, appears to be set on achieving both an uncompetitive exchange rate and higher inflation. Whereas many investors were impressed by the previous CBN governor, Lamido Sanusi, who was sacked for exposing corruption, they fret about the harm being inflicted by the current one. Some wonder which would be worse for Nigeria: allowing him to serve the remaining four years of his term or undermining the independence of the central bank by sacking him.


I wish to read the CBN response to this but before I do that, let me respond to this

This people never provided reason why they said banning those things were bad for our economy except for rice which is obvious we don't produce to the level we need.

How can they say restricting government officials from boarding private jet will curb the demand for it. Apart from deziani Maduekwe, how many government officials used Private jets and how many will even use it under PMB.

Though in all honesty this is really cheap but I don't know how banning toothpick and the likes can result to inflation.

Rice. Yes banning rice was not too good, but restricting the amount of import would've sufficed.

All in all, this is just a microcosm of the whole thing it does not negate anything I've said in my previous comment.

We are talking of comprehensive blockage of leakages of Dollars out of our economy using all means necessary.

The petroleum products import reduction is still there. The control of illicit funds in the economy.

We still have control of Naira released into the economy(cashless policy)
on another side.

1 Like

Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by miredia(m): 10:20am On Aug 03, 2015
laplace12:

Smuggling dollar to neighboring countries and then selling to Nigerian importers in electronic form is the next lucrative business grin
How do you mean electronic form?
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by FOREXMART(m): 2:23pm On Aug 03, 2015
ClintonNzedimma:
$1=N1 loading
Lol you kidding me.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by conyema12(m): 4:13pm On Aug 03, 2015
What the CBN is doing right now is a temporary measure.
The real value of naira to dollar should be in the neighborhood of 1: 230.
This is based on the current economic realities.
Our economy is completely import dependent and the fall in oil price is not helping out.
A point will reach when the rise of naira due to this speculation will cease and naira will eventually find its level.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by jomoh: 4:46pm On Aug 04, 2015
989900:


What do you make of Boyo's assertion?

Kindly go thru the links too.

"Going forward, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be more responsible in the management of the monetary policy. For instance, the CBN’s harebrained policy of monetising the monthly, statutory foreign exchange allocations due to the various tiers of government, distorts our macroeconomy on so many levels.

It creates excess liquidity by flooding the money market in one fell swoop with a surfeit of Nigerian Naira that now turns around to shop, sometimes inordinately, for foreign exchange, goods and services, etc, thereby worsening the exchange rate and inflation rate at the same time.
"
--Henry Boyo

https://www.nairaland.com/844884/solution-fuel-subsidy-wahala-look

http://eaglereporters.com/2015/06/01/buhari-vs-a-clueless-mpc/

I have gone through his assertion and i have this to say about it.

I think it is a very brilliant idea of fiscal policy. One that seeks to strengthen the currency by controlling the supply of naira to the economy. It is a design that will ensure that the currency is very strong against the global currency but like every fiscal policy, one needs to be very careful in its application by considering merits and otherwise.

While the merits of a strong Naira against the dollar are not farfetched, the negative effect of it, if not well managed should only be imagined than experienced. Increased purchasing power, Reduced inflation rate, Reduced interest rate, fuel subsidy removal, are all merits of Strong Naira against Dollar. They all look juicy but mismanagement of one of these advantages -Increased purchasing power- has the ability to rubbish all the merits stated.

If increased purchasing power is not well managed, I fear Nigeria will never attain the industrialised state that we crave. Mismanagement of this point will only turn our economy into a buying economy -which is very dangerous- instead of a selling one. A country with a currency that has a very high purchasing power has to be able to effectively manage every sector of its economy.

If we cannot manage every sector of our economy, it will collapse eventually because people will prefer to go to where the powerful money can be enjoyed (public infrastructures and quality services).

People will prefer to buy foreign products rather than locally made ones (Ministry of commerce and industry needs to be on top of their game, customs services is highly needed for enforcing restrictions)

In short, there are lots that could go wrong if it is not well managed. They are too numerous to state here. basically it depends on what brings about strength and what time it became strong. You can read more here

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3457/currency/problems-of-a-strong-currency/

On the other hand, if we have a focused and disciplined government that can effectively manage such, using the strong purchasing power of the currency to buy equipments needed for our industrialisation and having product standard like the USA, our economy will be one of the strongest.

The question is can we honestly say we are ready to manage this kind of fiscal policy that requires a lot of discipline?

Conclusion

I think it is a very brilliant idea but a very risky one for a very corrupt and unorganized economy/country like ours

1 Like

Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by 989900: 6:54pm On Aug 04, 2015
jomoh:


I have gone through his assertion and i have this to say about it.

I think it is a very brilliant idea of fiscal policy. One that seeks to strengthen the currency by controlling the supply of naira to the economy. It is a design that will ensure that the currency is very strong against the global currency but like every fiscal policy, one needs to be very careful in its application by considering merits and otherwise.

While the merits of a strong Naira against the dollar are not farfetched, the negative effect of it, if not well managed should only be imagined than experienced. Increased purchasing power, Reduced inflation rate, Reduced interest rate, fuel subsidy removal, are all merits of Strong Naira against Dollar. They all look juicy but mismanagement of one of these advantages -Increased purchasing power- has the ability to rubbish all the merits stated.

If increased purchasing power is not well managed, I fear Nigeria will never attain the industrialised state that we crave. Mismanagement of this point will only turn our economy into a buying economy -which is very dangerous- instead of a selling one. A country with a currency that has a very high purchasing power has to be able to effectively manage every sector of its economy.

If we cannot manage every sector of our economy, it will collapse eventually because people will prefer to go to where the powerful money can be enjoyed (public infrastructures and quality services).

People will prefer to buy foreign products rather than locally made ones (Ministry of commerce and industry needs to be on top of their game, customs services is highly needed for enforcing restrictions)

In short, there are lots that could go wrong if it is not well managed. They are too numerous to state here. basically it depends on what brings about strength and what time it became strong. You can read more here

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3457/currency/problems-of-a-strong-currency/

On the other hand, if we have a focused and disciplined government that can effectively manage such, using the strong purchasing power of the currency to buy equipments needed for our industrialisation and having product standard like the USA, our economy will be one of the strongest.

The question is can we honestly say we are ready to manage this kind of fiscal policy that requires a lot of discipline?

Conclusion

I think it is a very brilliant idea but a very risky one for a very corrupt and unorganized economy/country like ours

Excellent! You just photocopied my mind.

My question/concern is, why has the FG and CBN turned a deaf ear to this since 2002? The banks, CBN, and FG are all in bed together having a three0me?


I watched Boyo totally rip apart one of the CBN's deputy governor and CEO of one of them banks on Channels TV. It's all on youtube and more.


So far, I've not seen anyone disprove his theory/proposal. I've searched so hard; can't find one!
Except those that think he meant disbursing funds to arms of government in dollars in lieu of "dollar certificates" (which is what he meant).
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by jomoh: 8:09pm On Aug 04, 2015
989900:


Excellent! You just photocopied my mind.

My question/concern is, why has the FG and CBN turned a deaf ear to this since 2002? The banks, CBN, and FG are all in bed together having a three0me?


I watched Boyo totally rip apart one of the CBN's deputy governor and CEO of one of them banks on Channels TV. It's all on youtube and more.


So far, I've not seen anyone disprove his theory/proposal. I've searched so hard; can't find one!
Except those that think he meant disbursing funds to arms of government in dollars in lieu of "dollar certificates" (which is what he meant).

First let me start from the people that prefers using of real dollars to certificate dollars. Those people has not really understand the concept at all. If physical Dollars are paid in lieu of certificate, what will eventually happen is what is happening presently. Dollarisation of the economy. Why have physical dollars in our economy when it will only harm the economy. Its either they've not assimilated the theory or they are ignorant as to the effect of having physical dollars in the economy through the BDCs or they are being mischievously selfish.

Like I said in my conclusion, it is very brilliant and at the same time very risky.

Had it been that the strength is brought about by the strong economy, any shocks serulting from it will be absorbed easily. For example if we have successfully diversified and we decide to deploy this program then we would only need discipline in managing the kind of recession in the crude oil market presently but in a situation that we're still dependent on a single commodity, in times of recessions like this how dollar inflow will just drop suddenly leaving us with Naira chasing the few remaining dollars in the economy.

But if we have a very focused government and state governors determined to work as against the thieves that we have presently. We can deploy it, cut down on our imports of finished goods and encourage people to go massively into production by granting import waiver to machines and equipments. If we are not able to get it right in three years, its better we revert to the previous one. Retaining it after not getting right in three years will be disastrous.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by 989900: 8:49pm On Aug 04, 2015
jomoh:


First let me start from the people that prefers using of real dollars to certificate dollars. Those people has not really understand the concept at all. If physical Dollars are paid in lieu of certificate, what will eventually happen is what is happening presently. Dollarisation of the economy. Why have physical dollars in our economy when it will only harm the economy. Its either they've not assimilated the theory or they are ignorant as to the effect of having physical dollars in the economy through the BDCs or they are being mischievously selfish.

Like I said in my conclusion, it is very brilliant and at the same time very risky.

Had it been that the strength is brought about by the strong economy, any shocks serulting from it will be absorbed easily. For example if we have successfully diversified and we decide to deploy this program then we would only need discipline in managing the kind of recession in the crude oil market presently but in a situation that we're still dependent on a single commodity, in times of recessions like this how dollar inflow will just drop suddenly leaving us with Naira chasing the few remaining dollars in the economy.

But if we have a very focused government and state governors determined to work as against the thieves that we have presently. We can deploy it, cut down on our imports of finished goods and encourage people to go massively into production by granting import waiver to machines and equipments. If we are not able to get it right in three years, its better we revert to the previous one. Retaining it after not getting right in three years will be disastrous.

The part in bold cannot be over-emphasized, and it sure applies in all cases.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by laplace12(m): 11:34pm On Aug 04, 2015
miredia:
How do you mean electronic form?

Direct transfer to their Nigerian accounts
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by GreenUzzy(m): 9:05pm On Aug 09, 2015
lastpage:

3pm sharp!
Up gunners! undecided

Lastpage!
you see your life! AssNal 0-2 Westham @EmerateStadium shame.
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by macsilver(m): 11:50am On Apr 06, 2016
ClintonNzedimma:
$1=N1 loading



1$= #318 now.. April 6 2016
Re: Conspiracy Theory Of What Could ‘happen’ To Naira/dollar In The Next Few Weeks by nicewoody6: 12:54pm On Apr 06, 2016
What do you think of this theory?

Many Peer to Peer (P2P), Business to Business (B2B), B2P and P2B money transfer service giants exist today, with outstanding features like;

1. Acceptance of your local currency for Out-bound transfers.
2. Use of real/official exchange rate.
3. Zero transfer charges for First timers.
4. Huge savings on transfer charges especially when compared to conventional bank charges. Average of 80% savings.
5. Instant transfers to some countries.
6. Elimination of delays, unnecessary paper works and other bottle necks.
7. Safety and security of your funds.
8. Convenience.
9. Transparency :- zero/no hidden fees.
10. Etc

Good and Golden examples of such bodies are:
1. Transferwise.com
2. Currencyfair.com
3. Worldremit.com
4. Xoom.com
5. Just to mention a few.

Unfortunately many of them offers only In-bound services in Nigeria and none is presently offering Out-bound Money Transfer Services.

No doubt, their Out-bound money transfer services if introduced will force the price of the dollar in the parallel market to fall. Does anyone have a contrary opinion?

More so, their Out-bound services could lead to the collapse and death of the parallel market. ( Job loss). Do you think otherwise?

Well, the Real Questions are...

1. Will these bodies ever offer Out-bound Money Transfer Services in Nigeria? 

2. Do you think there is a Western conspiracy or a profitable political and economic power agenda hindering these bodies from offering Out-bound services in Nigeria?

3. Inbound services without outbound defeats the P2P concept which is the basis on which they operate. One without the other creates a huge imbalance.

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