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On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by debaj10: 8:08pm On Sep 10, 2015
Someone said the warning came in January.
Another compared the NSE with the NASDAQ.
Someone else said, 'We should be like the Chinese'.
There are also those who just want things explained in plain english!
I'll try.

The warning came in January with THE SAME CBN GOVERNOR; that should tell you something about the man.
Did Emefiele present the warning to GMB?
If not he committed a 'sackable' offence. But I stand to be corrected.

The NASDAQ lost 'blah, blah' percentage, means what exactly?
Well, the real reason is China, because the US economy actually enjoyed a boost when interest rates were raised.
But when China sneezes, the world catches a cold.
Meanwhile, NASDAQ is not your mate o! The US financial power was built over 200 years; you want to compare our economy with that kind of might? Meanwhile, unlike them, we're too small to snob such big players; where JPM goes, many, MANY investors- not speculators, mind you- will follow. If your government bonds are rubbished, your economy suffers because your banks can't get foreign partners and real sector investors will shy away. Most of us don't even know that QUITE A LOT of our business institutions import, produce and do business with foreign loans or partners!
And JPM heard our banks crying that they have $5billion sitting in their vaults, with no way to use the money because of CBN restrictions- who no go vex with dat kyn gist?!? Yet the CBN wants everyone to believe that it's meeting the rules of the bond agreement. Very funny.

For those who think we can simply abandon our economic and financial obligations and turn to China:
First of all: You president has snubbed them since his inauguration. His VERY FIRST STATE VISIT should've been to see the Chinese Premier to wangle a crude purchase agreement from him; or better still, a crude swap- because we all know how the Chinese deal with corruption. Heh. Even if they refused to buy our crude, they're likely going to be our largest bi-lateral trade partner in the near future so it makes simple sense to go visit them. Especially now that it's clear that even where BH are concerned, we're not getting any weapons from the West.
Instead, he went to the very people he'd insulted when he was a dictator. These guys- the NSA, CIA, MI6, Mossad- have very, VERY long memories. This is simply payback; and I fear it's just the beginning...
Secondly: Many of our agreements are VERY long-term, 5, 10, 20 year contracts that we can't simply ignore or get out of. Plus, when you go to country A, sign papers but want to sign different papers with country B, they'll tell you, 'Actually sir, your agreement with A prevents such and such from occurring between us because we have such and such agreement with country C, who are country A's partners.'
See how complex things can get?

The reality is this:
-Emefiele is being bombarded from several directions by quite formidable (actually, by gargantuan) forces. But he's made it really hard to pity him; when you use emergency measures like currency restrictions and your economy takes the hit that MAN has been- and now the LCCI are- desperately screaming about, outside onlookers know that you can't make them any money. It's that simple. Had he advised GMB to take pro-active steps to assist those- especially manufacturers- who lost out in the forex restrictions, guys like JP Morgan would have a less 'self-righteous' stance, even if they still went ahead to do what they planned to.
Besides, they claim that if they let us flout the rules, it unravels the system. The CBN gave a rejoinder
-Crude price is in the gutter and our currency is tanked. So when you lose out from stable agreements like bond purchases, you have very little hope of attracting investors to your real sector- industry/manufacturing, construction, etc. This is because they ask, 'How can this government guarantee anything?' Even if our economy was diversified before now, the issue is that the world economy has slowed down, so no one will wait for even an export-based economy to get it's act together when the captain of the sinking ship seems to be lost in... whatever it is he does with his time.
-There's STILL no economic team so there's ABSOLUTELY NO ONE to advise the president on what these all mean and what the best ways are to tackle the problem. Mind you, even with a crack team there's usually A LOT of contradictory and conflicting views on how to solve the problem.
-You cannot 'be like China'. China is the world's (first) second largest economy- because US dey do wayo. Whatever, China is more heavily invested in the US economy than US in the Chinese economy. Plus, Europe goes where the US tells them, so China has to 'maintain', at least for now. And we all seem to forget that China became number 2 by inviting EVERYBODY to come and invest in factories for every single item in the world.
Therefore, simple lesson:
Without investors, your economy will perish.

As usual, Criticism, Suggestions, Insights all welcome.

God bless us all.
Re: On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by Nobody: 8:08pm On Sep 10, 2015
MY GUY, IF I UNDERSTAND THE CONTENT OF THIS POST, MAKE I NAKE*D BAFF FOR BATHROOM..


ABEG YOU FIT SUMMARIZE?
Re: On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by Homguy(m): 8:40pm On Sep 10, 2015
Insightful post man! Thanks
Re: On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by debaj10: 1:47am On Sep 12, 2015
The problem with national economics is that no nation is an island.
So to explain any one thing will involve multiple players all heading in different directions at the same time.
But the gist is:
Generally, the world economy is slowing down.
This leads to investors being cautious in where they spend their money.
If your economy can't GUARANTEE good profits, they turn away.
You need a clear economic direction for these investors to know where your focus will be; this helps them decide what 'ministry' they'll invest in, for example- if government says it's going to meet UN recommendations on the education budget (which is 26% of the national budget), then investors begin to look into making CAPITAL/ real EDUCATION sector investments- labs, ict, construction, grants/scholarships, research, etc.

But the CBN rules make it hard for STRAIGHT-FORWARD investments; you have to jump through hoops to get your dollars to work for you. Plus, banks are holding on to hard currency that NO ONE seems able to use for anything- kind of like locking up your food and starving, because you don't want to feed your visitors.
And all of this is happening with very low oil prices. So who's going to invest in the economy?

So how do you reduce a high demand for dollars?
A possible solution is for the government to follow the advice of Dr. Henry Boyo who's been advocating dollar certificates.
Another part may involve bi-lateral agreements that involve using crude to make real sector purchases- for expertise, machinery for heavy industry, construction, etc- like I heard IBB did with Julius Berger.

There's no short-term fix.
The long-term solution is to begin exporting finished products. That's why Japan and China like to weaken their currency against the dollar- because they're MAJOR exporters and weaker currencies will earn more when dollars are converted to local money. Even exporting tinned foods (being 'finished products') will boost the economy; or converting all our animal skin to belts, shoes and bags for export=huge forex earnings!

That's some of the gist.
Re: On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by PresidKing(m): 5:14am On Sep 13, 2015
You logic is long, can't really understand
Re: On JP Morgan And Our Economy- A Layman's View by debaj10: 8:22am On Sep 13, 2015
I thought the second line of my 'summary' gave reason why it's 'long'?

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