By : Apena Ibrahim Adeboye

This is a personal analysis which is subjected to empirically backed criticism.

As at 7th of December 2015, Naira to dollar stood at ₦250 to $1, which was the highest fall of Naira to Dollar in history (Reference 1). As at today 28th of December, 2015, Naira to dollar stands at ₦197 to $1 (Reference 2), this shows there is an improvement.

All the same, have you ever asked why the value of Naira keeps dropping its value, Have you ever imagine if exchange rate of naira to dollar stands at ₦500 to $1, Did you make research on why use of NAIRA ATM abroad was ban ? (Kindly read reference 4 to know why). All these will help us understand the effect of the Ban of Naira ATM usage outside Nigeria.

It’s no news that some Nigerians in Diaspora are working towards protesting against the ban of Naira ATM abroad, especially those studying. With due respect, it's shameful that some Students who schooled or are schooling outside the country, especially those who offered or are offering business related courses do not understand why the inability to use Naira ATM outside Nigeria will be better off in the long run. Let’s kindly visit Economics as a course before complaining, though I am not an economics expert but I will apply the fair knowledge I have by the grace of God.

Let’s start with a simple analysis, this analysis will focus mainly on those schooling outside Nigeria;

SCENARIO ONE
Schooling Abroad and its effect on Naira. (Nigerians Schooling in Ghana as a case study)
The case study below is used for about 200,000 Nigerians schooling in Ghana, according to statistical fact (Reference 3)
Scenario Effect on Naira & Nigeria economy
1. Average School fees for a student per year ₦400,000_ Naira Out , Nothing In ,
2. Accommodation for about ₦100,000_ Naira Out , Nothing In,
3. Living expense of about ₦300,000 _ Naira Out , Nothing In,
Total expenses incurred by a Foreign trained Nigerian annually _₦800,000 Out, Nothing In.

Cost for 200,000 students per year ₦160,000,000,000 (₦160B)
Total expenses in 4 years ₦640,000,000,000 Out, Nothing In

Note:
Living expenses of 200,000 foreign trained in Ghana alone for a year is about ₦60,000,000,000 (₦60B)

Over 200,000 Nigerian were schooling in Ghana as at 2013.
(Reference 3)
SCENARIO TWO
1. Mr Ade imports phone to sell in Nigeria with about ₦100,000 each.
2. A student who schools in Ghana left this phone to buy the same worth of phone in Ghana.
EFFECT OF SCENARIO TWO
1. ₦100,000 gone out of Nigeria, ₦100,000 worth of Phone Imported (balanced)
2. ₦100,000 worth of phone ignored by student, yet such student took another ₦100,000 out of Nigeria to buy same phone in Ghana without any return to Nigeria. This means Nigeria has lost 100,000 to the Ghana Market despite having such product in Nigeria. Funny enough, if such phone is stolen before such student gets back to Nigeria, it means such student has made Ghana economy ₦100,000 better.

In one semester, an average Nigerian Schooling in Ghana must have spent about 800,000 of Nigerian currency in Ghana. Assuming we have about 200,000 Nigerians schooling in Ghana, it means about ₦160B is spent in Ghana education system within a year without any monetary return for Nigeria. Assuming this 160B is invested in Business , it would have been better because we would get goods in return for such chunk of money going out of the country , bear in mind that there are a lot of Nigerian students scattered around the world, Just imagine how much schooling abroad alone is taking out of Nigerian economy annually, imagine how much money spent on luxurious items , Health and so on in Ghana and other countries, Trillions of Naira. Have you imagined what it would look like if these monies are invested in our educational sector? That by the way.

After schooling abroad, some of the foreign trained do not even think of coming back to create jobs in the country, they rather think of coming back to earn from a white collar job, having used their certificate to bully home trained Nigerian Graduates. Does this really justify the huge amount spent on education outside Nigeria, Though, it’s a fact that knowledge must have been acquired and one can spend as much as possible to acquire knowledge.

As an average Nigerian Schooling outside the country, it’s normal to feel very bad when such news is broken (Ban of Naira ATM abroad). However, it will be a big disgrace to jump up to protest over it without understanding what is being protested about.
The question is simple ,
1. Do we prefer the value of naira to keep falling while we have access to spend naira anyhow outside Nigeria or we reduce the amount of naira going out and maintain a valuable naira.
2. The amount of Nigerians in diaspora are not up to 20% of those in Nigeria, thus , do we suffer those in Nigeria for the happiness of those in Diaspora or those who travel out to flex on vacation.

Imagine you wake up one day to see the exchange rate of naira to dollar standing at 500 Naira to 1 Dollar, Do you think it will be easy for parents to pay fees abroad.

SUGGESTIONS
1. Students schooling or intending to school abroad should rather think of how government can help in providing a means for students to transfer their school fees and money for upkeep. Though, this should be regulated, but not to protest over the Ban of ATM usage Abroad. NANS Excos and other student activist abroad should get to work on how to get alternatives for students to get money abroad. Who knows , students might be allowed to use Naira ATM abroad but lets consider the effect.
2. Most traveling outside Nigeria , especially within African countries should stop the habit of taking naira out to buy what can be bought in Nigeria , eg Phones , Laptop e.t.c
3. This is also the best avenue to challenge the government to work on the educational sector of Nigeria so that Nigerians will stop wasting chunk of money on schooling outside. In Ghana alone, Nigerians spends about 160,000,000,000 on education. The question is ;
a. How many people come to Nigeria to study or spend such money?
b. How many countries appreciate the monies spent by Nigerians in their economy.
Thus, if government won’t allow free usage of Naira ATM for students, then, they should provide alternatives or better our education system by scrapping JAMB and POST JAMB.

RECOMMENDATIONS TO LEARNED COLLEAGUES
Please let's apply what we learnt in school. When we spend more of our currency to import without Export, the value of Naira will keep dropping. So let’s plead to government to rather work on a policy to support fees payment and up keep money for students schooling abroad, also for business men. Also why are we not thinking of business we can do in abroad , afterwards , we send the little money you earn to Nigerian banks.

CONCLUSION
This literally mean , we are giving out without receiving except from petrol which is our major source of income , NB , price of Petrol is also dropping. If you give out without receiving you must reduce in whatever you have. This is one of the reasons why naira is dropping value. Therefore, ban of Naira ATM use outside Nigeria is a good policy. I don’t care who the governor of Central Bank of Nigeria is but I salute him/her for this. At least , this Policy should be maintained till Naira can be equivalent to about ₦100 – $1 dollars. If buhari Claims to take ₦1-$1, Do we think he will just perform Miracles, these are some of the ways to achieve it. Lets think of what to do so that others will come and spend or invest in our economy, However, there should be a way out for those who genuinely need to use the ATM outside Nigeria (Businessmen, students and likes ) Surely Politicians and those who pay visit to other countries Should be totally BANNED from use of Naira ATM abroad, amount taken out of Nigeria should be regulated.

This write up is not in any way to support any political party but for the betterment of Nigeria. Change and betterment will not occur if we won’t pay the price, ABOVE ALL, THIS IS A TEMPORARY MEASURE FOR THE SAKE OF STABILIZING THINGS. It is mainly geared towards those who spend naira on luxurious stuffs abroad.

Thank you for reading, comments to enlighten me are welcomed.

Reference
Referece 1 https://www.thecable.ng/finally-naira-falls-to-dreaded-2501

Reference 2 http://www.cenbank.org/rates/ExchRateByCurrency.asp

Reference 3 http://www.vanguardngr.com/…/nigerian-students-spend-n100b…/

Reference 4 http://thecitizenng.com/…/banks-blame-atm-card-ban-abroad-…/

Refeerence 5 http://ynaija.com/why-we-cant-reverse-ban-on-atm-card-use-…/

You made really good points which are apt but what you failed to realize is that the CBN powered by the FG is only cutting the branches of the tree rather than cutting the tree from its roots. The question is this, for how long would this plaster and patch service keep on. How long can the FG hold it on. Like it or not, Nigerians would still buy and patronize markets outside Nigeria if what is at home is not comfortable with them. I see no reason why Nigerians would go to Ghana to School. I have not seen any foreigner in a Nigerian school before. except for international schools paying exorbitant fees which most likely are in USD.

Although the policy by the CBN is good in a way and it would greatly affect me too but I see no reason why hands should not be on deck now to repair the parts that are missing. If Nigerian schools are not up to world class standard in every sense of it, then parents would keep on sending their kids abroad and go to Ghana or Cotonou and pay their fees from there. If we keep importing rather than producing and using these items, Nigerians would not mind smuggling the foreign ones which are way better. producers of commodities also need to have a some sort of standard mechanism devoid of corruption and greed and focus on quality and durability. If this is not done, business folks would keep trying to get more standard products outside and the worst part of it would be that the transfer of these monies would be done off the books which would even mean more leakages for the Naira to keep depleting in its value. so in whatever way the CBN is trying to fix this issue would be like fetching water in a basket..