Our forex reserve is currently 28200 USD million as at January which is low as compared to when it was 62081.6 USD million in September 2008, thats why the CBN has reduced the supply of dollar causing its shortage so as to av a favorable Balance of Payment, wich according to the IMF/IBRD a BoP is said to be favorable if it can finance 3 months of its imports.
The motive by the CBN to reduce $ supply is what's causing the free depreciation of the naira to the dollar. Bureau De Change now have to outsource dollars from nearby countries, which now depreciates the naira the more due to the increased cost of getting it. Now one would wonder, why people don't go to the bank to get the dollars at a cheaper rate at #199 for $1 and go get them at BDC's at #325 for $1; lack of confidence in the banking sector and the CBN's policy to retain as much dollar as possible in the CBN's reserves, thereby making commercial bank give their customers excuse. These leaves the customers no choice than to go to the BDC's which now increases the demand for dollars. Now back to the BoP criterion by the IMF, now that our money is depreciated in value, it makes foreign goods dearer to import and as such our BoP might not be favorable though depending on the import quantity.
To remedy this, I feel the CBN has to persuade customers to reduce their dollar usage for some months, which leads to a reduced demand for it. There need to be diversification from oil to other high return prospective sectors. Government should encourage local production of manufactured goods if possible, to increase the purchase of domestic goods, and with all that the naira should start appreciating.

Opened to criticism and corrections.

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