“The country suffers when well-meaning Nigerians keep silent to the truth”;…“Help our youths the truth to know”….. Having taken time to research and tried to understand the rational and justifiably reason for the fuel price hike, my conclusions puts some chills in my spine. Highlighted challenges or restraints that lead us to take this solution path included; “I don’t know where MY products are going”… “It’s more a question of FX and economics” than the regressive status of Ministry of Petroleum (subsidy regime), NNPC supply and distribution inadequacies and stakeholders (pump price manipulators/overnight billionaires) or mandate issues- key actors’ conclusions-half the truth. Analyzed data in this article are of the CORE resultant issues as specified by these key actors that led to this solution path, the signifying resultant impact on the aggregate nation, and the cumbersome realities of the truth to show us a better way/step in going forward that is primarily people sensitive.

Supply and Distribution still remains the root problem for PMS scarcity NOT economics or FX; it’s IMPOSSIBLE for any analyst to determine and provide a feasible data that measures how much PMS is consumed by our geographical populace, from the designated provision made by the FG because of primarily the diversion of product outside the shores of the nation, hoarding and local influx of bunkered fuel. Even if any innovative analyst tries to determine this by calculating what is the product consumed per person, per household, or per income multiplied by the population census of the appropriate demographic index, per location or state at a given time they would still not be able to determine which, where, when of actual amount of designated (PMS Product) is consumed by our populace. “NNPC was only able to supply 48 percent of the nation’s required consumption which was a far cry from what is needed in the country” our minister of communications comments.
The consumption statistics data in arriving at this solution path is infeasible and in moving forward will be a “false step”-meaning the reality of intended destination can’t be achieved. After a Civil-oriented preliminary survey, research findings indicates that our port serves as a “hub” to supply/distribute PMS products to other neighbouring countries and our locally produced fuel also ends up in such routes because of favourably prices. If all this is FIRST addressed we would have spared the masses the heightened experienced current hardship. The core resultant negative impact of economical corruption in Nigeria is INFLATION, its the resultant cancer that is keeping our economy at a recessive state and the price hike solution path has increased our inflation by 2.7% in using the scale that has been proffered here.

The fuel prices CAN NOT crash in the next three (3) months by market forces only by FG directive; the bureaucracy process and the business time cycle to obtain the derived licences(merchant) for a new player, would take three months at least-(I wonder whether provision for the hardware and software, structure, processes for the realization of this solutions and for its new opportunities was already in place before the price hike-(People Sensitive Indicator-PSI) and the sale and transaction process cycle must occur at a certain time cycle, amount, rate, and consistency before it can impact a market price of PMS product in order to crash it. Only 200,000 licenses have been provisioned for “ordinary” citizens”; scarcity of licenses might impact the two months timeframe because of primarily the time taken to vet all applications(everyone that can apply); the subsidy regime was running in States like Lagos, Port Harcourt, Abuja- “Model states”, we should use the glass half full perspective in moving forward here and see the subsidy regime as working for the nation(model states) and take the responsibility and do the hard work via the DPR to ensure that other states comply working strategically, scientifically and systematically. Please note; these model states need and consume most of the PMS products but yet sustained the 86.5naira with favourably supply. Lets tell ourselves the truth, if we still cannot control our PMS product Pricing, Supply and Distribution how can the government ensure price regularity even when its pegged at 145naira? This should have been FIRST addressed before the price hike-PSI

‘History of Nigeria’s foreign reserve at a glance; FX;
“ international reserves as “consisting of official public sector foreign assets that are readily available to, and controlled by the monetary authorities, for direct financing of payment imbalances, and directly regulating the magnitude of such imbalances, through intervention in the exchange markets to affect the currency exchange rate and/or for other purposes”
According to trading economics, Foreign Exchange Reserves in Nigeria decreased to 27140 USD Million in April from 27870 USD Million in March of 2016. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Nigeria averaged 10337.96 USD Million from 1960 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 62081.86 USD Million in September of 2008 and a record low of 63.22 USD Million in June of 1968. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Nigeria is reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

I am convinced the current so called dollar, fuel scarcity/parallel market rate is engineered by saboteurs, corrupt competent key actors, unpatriotic elements and incompetent capacity. Nigeria is the country with the second highest foreign reserves in Africa, Nigeria is one of the biggest exporters of crude oil (fuel) even at 40$ per litre, Nigeria has 150 million populace, yet in the whole of Africa we are the only ones who is experiencing fuel and dollar scarcity, what we have most off. I am baffled…‪#‎chill‬. Nigeria’s foreign reserves translates to high credit worthiness for our country meaning our reserves can serve any trade for the next 6months and its credit worthiness can help sustain for another year. However, research shows that our “FX” has already been used to generate income by past administrations and its generated finances have been earmark for other trades.

If we come from the perspective of saving us from the “cabal”- (“Fake businessmen became true billionaires overnight”) and the peoples will(mandate), then the FG approach, questions its intent. The timing is very insensitive to the masses especially the YOUTHS, we just gotten a breath of fresh air in the passing of the “budget of Change” and the good news that Dangote Group will suspend production of tomatoes paste till certain prerequisites are put in place by the FG and other stakeholders in this sector, ensuring the cost of tomato is affordable by the populace. Suggesting WE can not bare a fake billionaire for another day than this hardship was incorrect. Business systems shows that already integrated players of a sector/industry, will most likely be the dominant players after changes in that sector/industry especially in developing countries.

In realty the chief benefactors of this price hike remains - individuals that have kept the petroleum sector ransom (pump price manipulators- “fake businessmen”), these consummate actors make up 2 percent of the population. The chief losers are neither government nor the elite; the losers are the masses who make up 100million Nigerians. Yes! we are the losers because we will not only carry the heavy burden, we will also be the ones to pay the ransom. We the YOUTHS are yet to believe this path is masses sensitive. I think the masses would have expected the FG to be more sensitive to its current plight as a nation and maybe be patient in taking this route, when it was not even a question of critical revenue generation but actually based on maybe market unfairness continuing. And thinking it is a breach of the promise made by this government to the people would be a disconnected notion of the masses.

If we really don’t have a justifiable economical reason to increase fuel other than has been provided; I humbly join all other well meaning Nigerians: TMG, NLC etc on this front and ask the FG to please retreat on this decision path. Let’s be FIRST able to determine how we can control our pricing, supply and distribution in real time, to then determine what we consume as a nation, it might be surprising that including our locally and dwindling importation, it could sustain the populace or product price be less than 86.5 naira in an OPEN MARKET. We are available to do the hard work and you have been selected, elected or appointed to think of the masses before any decision is taken. Yes, its right to free any market up (open market) so more people can participate and market forces determining product price which is hinged on CONSUMER SATISFACTION-the ideal path leading to INDUSTRIALIZATION but in realities the FG has not yet put in place the environment to let this occur without strangulating the masses and the PEOPLE are not SATISFIED with the new rate.

A staple food like tomato stew and rice cannot be afforded by families anymore because of genuine tomatoes scarcity- a single tomato is 150 naira and with black market fuel been the prevalent source generally at 150-200 per litre…now with official price at-145 per litre and the parallel market is 250-300 per litre. A tomato immediately becomes literally gold, until Dangote stopping production takes effect on the industry’s economy. We can use this scale to understand the current situation of the nation. The truth is that the price hike is unfair, and its timing is unpatriotic, insensitive and indicates how much the FG is disconnected from the realities of the suffering of the masses and their primary mandate.

On a final note, i ask how much is it to produce a litre of PMS i.e what is the cost price of locally producing a litre of Petrol?

P.S as an update to the reasons behind the price hike, is that of price volatility of the international pricing per litre, the budget did not make provision for this volatility. Understood, but without the subsidy regime if the international pricing of oil increases from 40$, the local pricing must then increase, so by June, as a now "free oil market" the price may increase more than 145 naira. A time when as a chief exporter/importer of crude oil, when we should enjoy lower local oil prices like our counterparts. So i ask, are we now relying on our chief point of FX generation to save us from this mess by international price going lower at anytime for our local populace to enjoy"'lower local 'pricing? Nigeria which way?