Nigeria’s Currency-In-Circulation Drops By N219.89bn YTD


Latest data by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on Tuesday showed that currency-in-circulation (that is, outside of bank vaults) dropped significantly year-to-date from N2.157tr by December 31, 2017, a period usual associated with the festivities of the Christmas and New Year to N1.937tr at the end of February 2018.
This means the figure dropped by N219.892bn or 10.19% within the two-month period, which was more than the drop in the comparable period of last year when it fell by N200.288bn or 9.19% from N2.179tr at the end of December 2016 to N1.978tr in February 2017.
Month-on-Month, currency-in-circulation fell by N8.1bn or 0.42% from N1.945tr; just as it dropped by N41.549bn or 2.09% year-on-year, from the level in February 2017.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nigerias-currency-in-circulation-drops/#more

NNPC Hasn’t Explained $22.7bn Oil Bid Round Earnings, NLNG Div, NEITI Says


Waziri Adio, executive secretary of Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) says state oil company the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is yet to explain what it did with at least $22.7bn earned from the sale of oil licenses and in dividends from its stake in Nigeria LNG Limited over a 15-year period.

In a chat with Bloomberg in his Abuja office, Adio said while the struggle is ongoing with the corporation in this regard, energy producers in the country have cooperated and complied with requirements to publish payments.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni SpA operate joint ventures with the state oil company that account for about 90% of the output of Nigeria, Africa’s top producer.

Nigeria LNG is owned 49% by NNPC, 25.6% by Shell, 15% by Total and 10.4 % by Eni.
He however admitted that financial accountability in the oil industry has improved, as “the sector is no longer the black hole that it once was, but we can still use more transparency.

“Things are opening up. There could be more in the area of contracts, ownership and expenditure transparency, but definitely there is some progress.”
Ndu Ughamadu, NNPC spokesman, didn’t answer three calls to his mobile phone and two text messages by Bloomberg seeking comment.
NNPC has said in the past it has the authority of the government in its actions.
Neiti was set up in 2004 after Nigeria acceded to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which requires international energy companies and governments involved in mining to publish all their payments.

The Neiti law “does not give us the power to compel compliance or to enforce our recommendations,” he said. “But we have done our reports, with findings and recommendations, and we have shared them with government.”
So far, the agency has produced reports covering the years from 1999 to 2015 and is working on those for 2016 and 2017, which are scheduled for public presentation in July and November. Before the end of this year, Neiti plans “to automate our data collection process and be able to provide real-time data and real-time analysis,” Adio said.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nnpc-hasnt-explained-22-7bn-oil-bid-round-earnings-nlng-div-neiti-says/

Investors Cross 400m Units Of FBN Holdings In Off-Market Trade For N5bn


The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) witnessed heavy trading in the shares of financial services supermarket- FBN Holdings as investors crossed a total of 400,000,632 units, representing 1.11% of its shares outstanding at N12.50 each in two deals.
Investdata News learnt that the off-market trade worth N5bn was executed via negotiated deals between Cordros Securities Limited (buyer) and Fundvine Capital & Securities Limited (seller).

This brought total volume of FBN Holdings traded for the day to 425.603m units in 378 deals.
This brought total transaction volume for the day to 831.388m units worth N10.568bn, exchanged in 5,651 deals.
The Financial Services sector accounted for 76% of total volume traded, which represented 74% by value, followed by the Oil and Gas sector’s 16.00% of volume traded and 1.79% of value, among others.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/investors-cross-400m-units-fbn-holdings-off-market-trade-n5bn/

Nigerian Bourse Looks To Market Forces For Next Direction, Amidst Hope For More Numbers


Market Update for March 12, 2018

Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on Monday remained very volatile to close lower on a huge traded volume as the market seemingly ignores the positive and impressive earnings being released by quoted companies repeatedly. This is like a confirmation of the belief by INVESTDATA that the numbers emanating today have since been priced into the stocks before now, especially during the rally that began in the closing months of 2017 and way into January 2018, in reaction to the Q3 reports. It may also be a sign that even the technical corrections in February that kept the market in the up and down movement during the peak of earnings season has not change their minds about the stock valuations.
Besides the circular by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) giving conditions that qualify the nation’s banks for dividend payment, based on their exposure to Non-Performing Loans (NPL), there have also been reports by Moody’s and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that have triggered negative sentiments for banking stocks. The sector is the most capitalised on the Nigerian bourse and influences the general stock market directly and indirectly.
Although the NSE Index ended Monday on a negative note, the NSE Insurance and NSE Oil/Gas closed higher. The day started out with a little upside movement, and then pulled back, steeply so, by the mid-morning session, before retracing up between the midday to afternoon, touching intraday highs of 43,228.41 from lows of 42,943.34. The index thereafter retraced back above the 43,000 level on a negative market breadth.
Technically, the market was weak on Monday.
When market is down on a huge volume such as this, it is a sign of bearish trend. But then, going by the high volume seen in FBNH (READ) arising from a cross deal by two dealing firms, which helped to significantly lift transaction volume, market forces will on Tuesday confirm the next direction of the market as more numbers are expected.
It must be noted that the huge transaction volume notwithstanding, the composite NSE’s All-Share index is still trading above the short moving average of 20 and 50-day.
During the day’s trading, there were buying pressure of 40% on a huge volume traded, while selling position was 60%. Volume index was 2.24 with money flow index energy strengthen for the session at 65.71 point from the previous day’s level of 65.06 points.
At the close of trading, the All Share index shed 111.36 points to close at 43,056.51 after opening at 43,167.87 basis points, representing a decline of 0.26% on high traded volume that is higher than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation for the day lost N105.36bn to close at N15.4tr from an opening value of N15.51tr which also represented 0.68% value loss.
The downturn was attributed to price depreciation by stocks like: UBA, Guaranty Trust Bank, FBNH, Unilever, Dangote Flour, Guinness, UBN, Cadbury and Nestle, which together impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, cutting it to 12.59%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period improved to N1.8tr, representing 13.18% YTD growth.
The All-Share index and other sectorial indexes closed red, except for the NSE Insurance and NSE Oil/Gas that were in green for the day due to price appreciation in Consolidated Hallmark insurance, Unic, Royal Exchange Insurance, NEM and AXA Mansard, rally in Total Nigeria. Market breadth was negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 34:19.
Market activities were down in volume and value by 94.2% and 96% respectively to 831.39 million shares worth N10.57 billion from previous day’s 1.54 billion units valued at N19.71 billion.
Transaction volume for the day was boosted by financial services and oil stocks like FBNH, Zenith Bank, Japual Oil, Regency Insurance and United Capital which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
The top performing stocks were Unic Insurance and Multiverse, which gained 9.52% and 7.69% respectively to close at N0.23 and N028 on market sentiment, while Regency Insurance and Diamond Bank were the worst performers, shedding 5.71% and 4.87% to close at N0.33 and N2.15 respectively on market forces and profit booking respectively.
During the trading session on Monday, 7-Up Bottling Company was officially delisted from NSE’s Daily Official List, while Zenith Bank and Mcnichols Plc released their 2017 full-year earnings reports. Zenith Bank’s numbers were not only impressive, but beat market expectations and offered a final dividend of N2.45, which brings its total dividend for the year to N2.70 per share, a level that may be difficult to match by peers (READ).

Market Outlook

We expect the positive sentiment to resurface again after yesterday’s pullback, on the strength of more impressive scorecards to hit the market on Tuesday and the days following till the end of the week. Also expect volatility and strong recovery moves to continue and profit taking at different times, depending on the expected numbers.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the INVEST 2018 traders and the investors’ summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.

Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
Meanwhile, the Investdata equity trading and investment education train moves to Port Harcourt this month in line with its resolve to encourage and enhance the return of more retail investors to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as a veritable instrument for mobilizing savings, wealth creation and redistribution.
At the Port Harcourt edition investment summit tagged: “Power of Earnings Season For Profitable Trading and Investing” we would be simplifying stock market investing is billed for Saturday, March 17, 2018 at Emerald Hotel Limited, Rumuola. From there, it moves to Abuja on Saturday, April 14, 2018.

As the Nigerian economy continues on its recovery path, participants would learn how to trade intelligently, beginning with setting investment objectives and applying simple tools to help decision making even on impulse.
A statement by Investdata quoted Mr. Ambrose Omordion, its Chief Research Officer as saying: “The training is also to help participants appreciate the changing pattern of the Nigerian economy since its emergence from recession, its effect on company fundamentals, which calls for new strategies for profitable investing. Investors are recovering from the recent market correction due to price decline suffered by equities over the past three weeks.
“Participants will learn how to effectively combine fundamental and technical tools for profiting from the market transformation, while protecting their capital.
“As independent research analysts, InvestData Consulting Limited will also unveil simple steps for surviving any market situation profitably and how to manage profit and loss positions using simple technical analysis tools. We would also be looking at equity investment in a pre-election year and beyond.”

Participants at the Port Harcourt and Abuja legs of the summit would learn how to be among the lucky 10% who manage to consistently play the stock market profitably on their own, guided by our simple trading strategies and buy & sell signal setup.
At Investdata we have been teaching investors simple and proven strategies which when implemented makes you a successful trader and investor in any market situation, especially when it comes to equipping you well enough to know how to protect you portfolios and profit from market corrections in a recovering economy.

We have also, over time, focused attention on attuning the mindset of investors and traders to managing risk, while eliminating emotions when trading so as to avoid irrational investment decisions.
At each of the events, all our stock trading and investing materials that will enhance the knowledge of participants and boost their returns on investment will be available at a discount.
As is our tradition, at our workshop of December 9, 2017, Investdata recommended the following 16 stocks to participants:

African Prudential Plc
Dangote Flour Mills Plc
Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc
Fidson Healthcare Plc
Fidelity Bank Plc
FBN Holdings Plc
Eterna Plc
Access Bank Plc
Dangote Cement Plc
Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc
Honeywell Flour Mills Plc
Presco Plc
Okomu Oil Palm Plc
Total Nigeria Plc
Unilever Nigeria Plc
Zenith Bank Plc

“An analysis of the stocks after four months and one week since December 9 when the summit in Lagos shows that Dangote Flour for example has returned 42.11% from N11.40 each to N16.20. This was after it touched a peak of N17.81 within the period, representing a 56.22% ROI; followed by Eterna, which chalked 35.63%, after its share price climbed from N4.35 on Friday, December 9, 2017, to N5.90 each, just as it recorded a high of 60% returns. FBN Holdings, another of the recommended stock climbed 26.39% from N9.02 per share to close at N11.40 on March 2, 2018, hitting a high of N15.16 each, or 68.07%; while Honeywell Flour notched 23.18%, after closing at N2.71 from N2.20 per share and attaining a price of N3.69, or 67.72% for investors and traders who exited at that price,” Omordion explained.

Also, he added that investors who followed Investdata’s advice to position in African Prudential have gained 22.36% from N3.98 per share at the beginning of the period to N4.87, attaining a 30.65% height within the period; just as investors in Unilever Nigeria creamed 23.89%, which makes it the stock that is closed to its peak during the period. Fidelity Bank’s shares have within the period appreciated by 12.45% to N2.80, but rose as high as N4.33 each, representing 73.89% RoI; while Fidson Healthcare returned 23.68% to close at N4.70, after reaching N5.05 per share, representing RoI of 32.89%; among others.

Two stocks in the pack however underperformed slightly, with Okomu Oil Palm lost 4%, opening for the period at N75.00 and falling to N72.00 per share, after attaining a height of N75.75; just as Flour Mills of Nigeria shed 4% from N35.00 to N33.60; after rising to N37.35 each.
That means a basket built around the above stocks has within the period, without doubt, yielded bountiful returns.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nigerian-bourse-looks-market-forces-next-direction-amidst-hope-numbers/

Fidelity Bank: Robust Headroom For Growth, Amidst Investor Patronage


COY: Fidelity Bank
Rating: Hold
Current Market Price: N3.04
Fair Value: N5.00

Key Financial Tickers
• Our analysis is based on Fidelity bank’s latest financial report which is the nine months statistics
• The report shows an outstanding growth against corresponding period of 2016 and more than 50% growth above the half year result
• We have rated earnings quality of Fidelity bank high, as reasonable level of consistency was noticed in the released date.
• Based on record, the next financial report (4th quarter) should hit the market between the last week of March and first week of April.



Corporate Summary
Incorporated in 1987, Fidelity Bank evolved over the years from a merchant bank (through organic and inorganic initiatives) to become a fully-fledged commercial bank with an international focus. (Albeit, currently operating nationally). The bank provides a complete range of financial services, including investments, commercial and retail banking. It ranks amongst the top 10 banks in Nigeria.

Company’s Figures
• Against comparable period of 2016, Gross Earnings grew by 17.89% from N215.59 billion to N225.85 billion
• Profit before Tax (PBT) stood at 65.08% over similar period of 2016, standing at N16.236 billion as against the N9,835 billion in 2016
• Similarly, Profit for the period soared by 65.09% over the N8.753 billion reported in 2016 nine months financial performance
• Total deposit declined slightly by 2.67% against previous nine months’ financials. The figure dropped from N795.59 billion in Q3-2016 to N774.38 billion.
• In conclusion, indices in the income statement show an outstanding improvement over the corresponding period of 2016.



FX Exposure
Fidelity Bank is exposed to foreign exchange risks via its foreign currency denominated borrowings, deposits and advances. While the bank continues to review its exposure, taking a proactive approach towards the management of its related assets and liabilities, we envisage that the current intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will go a long way to reduce its exposure to the risk. Nevertheless, it is necessary to state the significant reduction in its international borrowings from N76.901 billion in Q3-2017 to N32.672 billion-Q3-2017 as published in its nine months financial performance report.
As can be seen from the table below, the bank’s total debt to equity at 64.27% is fairly above the industry average of 54.48%. Substantially, the equity is enjoying appreciable investor’s patronage, confirming the high level of confidence reposed on its management.



Profitability Ratios
Averagely, Interest Expense to Gross Earnings ratio is within acceptable level at 43.48%, which is fairly above estimates from few other operators in the sector. Similarly, both Profit before Tax and Profit after Tax margin to Gross Earnings ranged within its pair estimates, safe Access Bank that have slightly higher margins.



Efficiency Ratios
The bank’s Asset quality remained relatively stable at the current Non Performing Loan of about 5.90%, which ranks it 6th in the sector. We are of the opinion that the management should be commended for such performance. Nevertheless, we recommend that exposure to both oil and government loans should be seriously curtailed. Shall we reiterate therefore that in line with the recently released regulations of the central bank of Nigeria on qualification of financial institutions to pay dividend; all things being equal, shareholders of Fidelity bank should expect cash dividend for the full year 2017 business activities.



Investment Ratios/Dividend
At its nine-month Earnings Per Share of 50k, we have projected between 70k to 80k full year EPS for Fidelity Bank. Should our estimate be achieved, going by the average payout ratio of 30% common with the financial institution, between 21k and 24k dividend payout should be expected. In other words, estimating with N2.99 current market price, we expect a best case scenario of 8% Dividend Yield and 26.75% Earnings Yield, despite the rapid revaluation of its current market price on the floor of the exchange during the January-February boom.



QoQ Comparison
Outstandingly, the management of Fidelity Bank successfully grew its income statement elements through the reported quarters of 2017. Putting the figures side by side, it was discovered that exceptional growth was recorded between first and the second quarter of the year. On a reduced momentum, the growth continued to the third quarter. We expect the extension of the positive performance into the last quarter of the year and have conservatively projected few income statement items in this regard.



Technical View


Currently, we have established two major supports for the daily share price movement of Fidelity bank; the first is around N2.43 while the second lies around N2.22. Meanwhile it currently trade near a previous support turned resistance point at N3.12. Should this major resistance be broken, then, it should be assumed that the stock may have exited downtrend and may have commenced a new journey towards the north. Queuing behind know fundamentals, we foresee more investors positioning for positive expectations in the next two weeks from now. We also expect some level of shock at release of the expected result as most investors may opt for capital gains rather than waiting for cash incentive.

By JEARIOGBE TUNDE SEGUN
Equity Analyst

Fidelity Bank: Robust Headroom For Growth, Amidst Investor Patronage


COY: Fidelity Bank
Rating: Hold
Current Market Price: N3.04
Fair Value: N5.00

Key Financial Tickers
• Our analysis is based on Fidelity bank’s latest financial report which is the nine months statistics
• The report shows an outstanding growth against corresponding period of 2016 and more than 50% growth above the half year result
• We have rated earnings quality of Fidelity bank high, as reasonable level of consistency was noticed in the released date.
• Based on record, the next financial report (4th quarter) should hit the market between the last week of March and first week of April.



Corporate Summary
Incorporated in 1987, Fidelity Bank evolved over the years from a merchant bank (through organic and inorganic initiatives) to become a fully-fledged commercial bank with an international focus. (Albeit, currently operating nationally). The bank provides a complete range of financial services, including investments, commercial and retail banking. It ranks amongst the top 10 banks in Nigeria.

Company’s Figures
• Against comparable period of 2016, Gross Earnings grew by 17.89% from N215.59 billion to N225.85 billion
• Profit before Tax (PBT) stood at 65.08% over similar period of 2016, standing at N16.236 billion as against the N9,835 billion in 2016
• Similarly, Profit for the period soared by 65.09% over the N8.753 billion reported in 2016 nine months financial performance
• Total deposit declined slightly by 2.67% against previous nine months’ financials. The figure dropped from N795.59 billion in Q3-2016 to N774.38 billion.
• In conclusion, indices in the income statement show an outstanding improvement over the corresponding period of 2016.



FX Exposure
Fidelity Bank is exposed to foreign exchange risks via its foreign currency denominated borrowings, deposits and advances. While the bank continues to review its exposure, taking a proactive approach towards the management of its related assets and liabilities, we envisage that the current intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will go a long way to reduce its exposure to the risk. Nevertheless, it is necessary to state the significant reduction in its international borrowings from N76.901 billion in Q3-2017 to N32.672 billion-Q3-2017 as published in its nine months financial performance report.
As can be seen from the table below, the bank’s total debt to equity at 64.27% is fairly above the industry average of 54.48%. Substantially, the equity is enjoying appreciable investor’s patronage, confirming the high level of confidence reposed on its management.



Profitability Ratios
Averagely, Interest Expense to Gross Earnings ratio is within acceptable level at 43.48%, which is fairly above estimates from few other operators in the sector. Similarly, both Profit before Tax and Profit after Tax margin to Gross Earnings ranged within its pair estimates, safe Access Bank that have slightly higher margins.



Efficiency Ratios
The bank’s Asset quality remained relatively stable at the current Non Performing Loan of about 5.90%, which ranks it 6th in the sector. We are of the opinion that the management should be commended for such performance. Nevertheless, we recommend that exposure to both oil and government loans should be seriously curtailed. Shall we reiterate therefore that in line with the recently released regulations of the central bank of Nigeria on qualification of financial institutions to pay dividend; all things being equal, shareholders of Fidelity bank should expect cash dividend for the full year 2017 business activities.



Investment Ratios/Dividend
At its nine-month Earnings Per Share of 50k, we have projected between 70k to 80k full year EPS for Fidelity Bank. Should our estimate be achieved, going by the average payout ratio of 30% common with the financial institution, between 21k and 24k dividend payout should be expected. In other words, estimating with N2.99 current market price, we expect a best case scenario of 8% Dividend Yield and 26.75% Earnings Yield, despite the rapid revaluation of its current market price on the floor of the exchange during the January-February boom.



QoQ Comparison
Outstandingly, the management of Fidelity Bank successfully grew its income statement elements through the reported quarters of 2017. Putting the figures side by side, it was discovered that exceptional growth was recorded between first and the second quarter of the year. On a reduced momentum, the growth continued to the third quarter. We expect the extension of the positive performance into the last quarter of the year and have conservatively projected few income statement items in this regard.



Technical View


Currently, we have established two major supports for the daily share price movement of Fidelity bank; the first is around N2.43 while the second lies around N2.22. Meanwhile it currently trade near a previous support turned resistance point at N3.12. Should this major resistance be broken, then, it should be assumed that the stock may have exited downtrend and may have commenced a new journey towards the north. Queuing behind know fundamentals, we foresee more investors positioning for positive expectations in the next two weeks from now. We also expect some level of shock at release of the expected result as most investors may opt for capital gains rather than waiting for cash incentive.

By JEARIOGBE TUNDE SEGUN
Equity Analyst
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/fidelity-bank-robust-headroom-growth-amidst-investor-patronage/

Expect Continued Repositioning, As Profit Taking Wanes Amid More Earnings Surprises


Market Update for March 15, 2018

Nigeria’s stock market on Thursday had another weak trading session that was highly volatile, pulling back below its shortest moving averages of 20 and 50 to touch the lower band of the Bollinger, near the recent strong support level of 41,883.82 basis points. A breakdown of this level may lead the market to 37,795.62bp, but with the earnings season midstream, just as the torrent of positive economic data like the February inflation data that stood at 14.33% from 15.3% in the prior month, resulting in 13 straight months of decline. This continues to reflect the impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued intervention in the foreign exchange market, which had supported the relatively stable exchange rate, besides boosting the ongoing economic recovery and company fundamentals. These and the sentiment induced low price regime in the market are expected to attract bargain hunters at this point and in the process support a market rebound as more scorecards are expected in the coming days and ahead of the March 31, deadline for submission of audited results for those with December 2017 year end.
The day started out with a little pop to the upside, before a pullback to support which could not get through, and then it rolled over to nominal lows on the NSE Index, but the NSE Consumer goods did not confirm. The indexes rolled back down in what looks like wedges, or some sort of consolidation.

The weak state of the market is gradually triggering another correction mode after an attempt to recover from the February global markets induces shakeout as a result of lack of a monetary policy and unclear fiscal direction on the back of huge borrowings. This case is made worse by the fact that the 2018 budget continues to lie with the National Assembly, amidst an ongoing blame game between the presidency and the National Assembly over who is responsible for the delayed passage by the federal legislators.
These have no doubt slowed down the inflow of funds into the nation’s market and economy. The dwindling liquidity is influencing the market negatively despite the impressive earnings and high dividend payout at the ongoing earnings reporting season, which the market has repeatedly turned a blind eye to.

Technically, the market’s buying pressure of 17% on a low volume traded, is signaling distribution phase, while selling position was 83%. Volume index was 0.57 with money flow index energy weakened at 47.62 point from the previous day’s level of 53.03 points.
Meanwhile, the All Share index shed 654.11 points to close at 42,185.38bp after opening at 42,839.49 basis points, representing a decline of 1.53% on low traded volume that is higher than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation for the day lost N234bn to close at N15.09tr from an opening value of N15.21tr which also represented 1.53% value loss in investors’ portfolios.

The downturn was due to negative investors sentiment that affected the share price of blue chip stocks, despite positive and high dividend payout. This impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, cutting it to 10.21%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period improved to N1.62 trillion, representing 11.76% YTD growth.
The composite index NSEASI and other sectorial indexes were lower, except for the NSE Consumer index that closed higher for the day due to price appreciation in Nestle and Dangote Sugar. Market breadth remained negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 39:15.
Market activities were mixed as volume was up by 8.34% to 404.66m against the previous day 373.52m, while value was down by 11.94% to N6.03bn from the previous day N6.85bn.

Transaction volume for the day was boosted by financial services stocks like Zenith Bank, FBNH, Regency Insurance, Fidelity Bank and UBA which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
NPF Microfinance and JohnHolt were the top performing stocks with 9.78% and 4.00% gain respectively to close at N2.02 and N0.53 on market sentiments, while Fidelity Bank and Japual Oil were the worst performers, shedding 9.23% and 8.75% to close at N2.55 and N0.73 respectively on market forces and profit booking respectively.

Market Outlook

We expect the negative sentiment to change as more scorecards hit the market today and next week. We do expect this current situation to linger in a recovery economy with stronger corporate earnings, positive economic data and transparent market that is technology driven.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the INVEST 2018 traders and the investors’ summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.

Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
Meanwhile, the Investdata equity trading and investment education, comes up in Port Harcount tomorrow, this edition is tagged: “Power of Earnings Season For Profitable Trading and Investing” we would be simplifying stock market investing is billed for Saturday, March 17, 2018 at Emerald Hotel Limited, Rumuola. For more details call 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223

Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/expect-continued-repositioning-profit-taking-wanes-amid-earnings-surprises/#more

Access Bank: Enjoying Long Positive Valuation From Investors, Maintains Uptrend


Rating: Hold
Current Market Price: N13.00
Fair Value: N11.16
By: Jeariogbe Segun (Independent Analyst-Tradelines DotBiz Inv. Ltd)

Key Financial Tickers
• Our analysis is based on Access Bank’s most recent financial report which is the nine months statistics
• The report was a mild growth against corresponding period of 2016 and slightly below 50% growth above the half year result
• We have rated earnings quality of Access bank high, as reasonable level of consistency was noticed in the release date.
• Based on record, the next financial report (4th quarter) should hit the market any time between the second and third week of March.



Corporate Summary
Access commenced operations in Nigeria over 26 years ago as a privately owned commercial bank, which later became a public limited company in 1998. Through a combination of both organic and inorganic growth strategies over the years, the bank now ranks among the five largest banks in the country, and as such was classified as one of the systemically important banks (SIBs) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 2014. Currently, Access operates as a commercial bank with an international focus. It operates in Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa and the United Kingdom (UK).

Company’s Figures
• Against comparable period of 2016, Gross Earnings grew by 26.16% from N603.59 billion to N761.51 billion
• Profit Before Tax (PBT) increased by 5.68% over similar period of 2016, standing at N72.91 billion as against the N68.98 billion in 2016
• Similarly, Profit for the period appreciated marginally by 4.28% over the N54.08 billion reported in 2016 nine months financial performance
• Total deposit declined slightly by 1.03% against previous nine months financials. The figure dropped from N2.270 trillion in Q3-2016 to N2.247 trillion.
• In conclusion, indices in the income statement revealed a mixed performance against corresponding period of 2016.


Debt Profile
The Eurobond Security profile in the table below refers to the US$400,000,000 subordinated notes of 9.25% resettable interest issued on 24 December 2014 with a maturity date of 24 December 2021 and US$300,000,000 notes of 10.5% interest issued on 19 October 2016 with a maturity date of 19 October 2021. These represent an amortized cost of N218.56bn. The principal amount on both notes are payable at maturity, whilst interest is payable on a semi-annual basis at their respective interest rates.
Also find in the table below, details of the interest bearing borrowings by the financial institution. In our opinion, the loans are not in any way a threat to the bank’s operations as the interest are at most 3%. Meanwhile, our estimates show that the interest bearing borrowings is 57.95% of the Net Assets (as at Q3-2017). And Debt Securities is 57.18% of the Net Assets.
As revealed in the estimates above, Total Debt to Equity is 115.14%, implying that the total debt is 116.25% of the shareholders’ equity. In our opinion, this is quite on the high side. Beta value is fairly below the industrial average, but good enough at 1.10x.



Profitability Ratios
Interest expense margin increased from 22.81% estimated in 2016 to 34.08%, meanwhile both PBT and PAT Margin inched below comparable period of 2016. Return on Average Equity is currently 11.16% while Return on average Assets is 1.59%. See the below table for details.


Efficiency Ratios
Nine months 2017 Gross Earnings is same as 10.31% of the Total Assess of Access Bank Plc, this is marginally above the 9.68% estimated last year. Meanwhile Gross Earnings to Equity stemmed lightly below last year’s at 72.25% against 74.10% (Q3-2016). In all, although rhe management of Access Bank has not outstandingly built its efficiency ratios, it has been able to defend same from surging.

Investment Ratios/Dividend
As noted in the income statement above, earnings only grew marginally above the comparable period’s statistics, nevertheless, the Total Comprehensive Income per share declined from N3.07 of Q3-2016 to N2.67. Since the share price of Access Bank have increased from the N5.70 (as at the release date of result in 2016) to N9.90 on the day the current result was released, the earnings yield declined from 32.80% to 19.69%. Book Value of Access Bank is currently estimated at N17.47, this is 14.09% above the N15.31 estimated in Q3-2016.
We expect at most a 50k dividend for the full year ended 2017.

QoQ Comparison
Between the first quarter of 2017 and the second quarter, the income statement of Access bank grew outstandingly. Meanwhile, the growth momentum reduced between the second and third quarter of the year. Looking back into the bank’s books, we understand that this trend had been before now. On the strength of this dwindling growth pattern, we have projected few income statement elements as shown in the below table.



Valuation
While trying to arrive at an intrinsic value for Access Bank, we have settled for constant perpetual dividend discount model. Our growth rate was 8%, while the discount rate used was 14%. Although this value was slightly below the bank’s book value, we settled for the value in consideration of the high Debt to Equity ratio. The rate is subject to revaluation as the debt profile is adjusted.

Technical View

Outstandingly, the share price of Access Bank has enjoyed long positive valuation from investors as the stock has maintained uptrend from December, 2017 till date. It seems to be battling a cracked resistance situated at N13.12 per share, and may have found support at N12.35, although proper support for this stock is at N11.71 each. In our opinion, any slight fundamental boost will dust the said resistance, especially now that it is attempting support close to the said resistance.
Technically, we therefore recommend a HOLD on the share price of Access Bank.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/access-bank-enjoying-long-positive-valuation-investors-maintains-uptrend/#more

Nigeria’s Total Debt Up By 28% In Two Years Under Buhari, Says BudgIT

Wednesday’s revelation by the Debt Management Office (DMO) that Nigeria’s total debt hit N21.7tr, or about $70.92bn at the end of December 2017, according to BudgIT, an organization committed to raising transparency standards, means that the Federal Government, under President Muhammadu Buhari has bloated the nation’s debt level by N6.1tr or 28% in just two years.

Between December 2016 and the corresponding period of last year, the country’s debt level jumped N4.34tr or 25% up to N21.7tr (about $70.92bn) from N17.36tr, comprising mostly high-interest, locally-acquired credit, Mrs. Patience Oniha, Director-General of the Debt Management Office said at a news briefing on Wednesday.
In a post on its official twitter handle on Thursday morning, BudgIt, which undertakes citizen engagement & accountability especially in public finance in the country, said a summary of the DMO statement shows that Nigeria “added N3.75tn to domestic debt and $7.6bn to external debt.”

Oniha said the country’s domestic debts at the end of December 2017 was N12.59tn; while external Debts amounted to $14.9bn; up from N8.84tr and $7.3bn respectively in 2015, the year Buhari assumed office on May 29.
Nigeria’s total debt at the end of 2017, she noted, comprised mostly high-interest, locally-acquired credit, even as the country’s first Eurobond will be repaid at maturity in July, she said, putting the debt mix at about 27% foreign and 73% local, which it plans to cut to 40:60%, after the $2.5bn Eurobond sale in February, in a bid to increase the ratio of foreign, but cheaper to service dollar, to domestic debts.

Nigeria paid off about N130bn worth of treasury bills maturing this week, instead of rolling over the debt as it has done in the past.
Eurobond sales last year boosted foreign reserves by $4.8 billion, in addition to February’s $2.5 billion gain, Oniha said.
The Federal Government is also expected to save N81.66bn after it refinanced $3bn of Treasury Bills, she said.

“The key benefits of the restructuring of the portfolio are the reduction of the government’s debt-service costs, lowering of interest rates in the domestic market and improved availability of credit facilities to the private sector,” Oniha said.
In 2017 the government spent N1.6tr out of a budget of N7.2tr on debt servicing, with only 9% of that for external borrowing and the rest spent on local loans, according to the DMO.
The DMO repaid N198bn of maturing domestic debt at the end of last year with the proceeds of its Eurobond sales to rein in the increasing cost of credit, Oniha said.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nigerias-total-debt-up-by/#more

UBA, French Devt Agency Sign Agreement To Finance Africa’s SMEs


Press Release

United Bank for Africa Plc, a pan-African banking group and Agence Française de Development (AFD), France’s public and solidarity-based development bank, on March 14, 2018 have entered into a Framework Agreement to utilise the EURIZ and ARIZ schemes offered by AFD to facilitate the financing of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and startups across the 20 countries where UBA operates in Africa.
The new partnership, an off-shoot of the strategic relationship both institutions have had over the years, will enhance UBA’s capacity to finance SMEs in Nigeria and across the other 19 African countries where the bank currently operates, whilst ensuring AFD uses the financial structure availed by UBA to reach out to many SMEs across Africa.

The AFD’s EURIZ project helps the financially under-served Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises to receive loans for business development and sustainable jobs. AFD designed ARIZ risk-sharing facility as one of the financial tools to give SMEs easier access to financing from financial institutions. In the same vein, ARIZ helps financial institutions to deal with their SME risk and thereby help them develop their loan activity for micro-enterprises, SMEs and microfinance institutions (MFIs).

“Our partnership with Agence Française de Development(AFD) is novel as the scheme being introduced will enable us reach the various markets in our presence countries and would empower the SMEs across Africa through the provision of financial access, critical to their survival,” Kennedy Uzoka, Group Managing Director/CEO, UBA Plc, said.
“With this partnership, we will be able to derive value from a world-class financial institution which we believe is critical in growing wealth on the continent in the long-term,” Uzoka further stated.

Also speaking at the signing, Mrs Cecile Couprie, Deputy Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, Agence Française de Development(AFD) said: “It is an honour for us at AFD to work with UBA to promote the development of African countries. Working with UBA will assist us to contribute to improving the economic and social conditions in Africa of which the growth of SMEs is essential.”
Both Parties recognize the core role of the private sector in the economic development of Africa and the need to support African entrepreneurship as the catalyst to creating jobs and fighting against poverty on the continent.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/uba-french-devt-agency-sign-agreement-finance-africas-smes/#more

S&P Upholds Nigeria’s ‘B/B’ Rating On Rising Oil Prices, Production FX Policy


• Seeks ‘Significant Fall In Fiscal Deficits’

Just soon after a team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to put an end to its foreign exchange intervention policy, which started last April to stabilize the Naira against global currencies, Standard and Poor’s’ Global Rating cited it as a basis for affirming its ‘B/B’ rating and stable outlook.
In its report on Friday, S&P also noted the country’s increased oil production, which has been helped by the peace in the Niger Delta region where the government is encouraging private investors and oil bearing communities to co-own modular refineries, at a time oil prices are looking up.

Other factors, according to the agency include the Federal Government’s external commercial borrowings that have helped to raise foreign currency inflows into the economy in 2017.
The report, while affirming the ‘B/B’ long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria, as well as a long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings at ‘ngBBB/ngA-2,’ however noted that the country’s “fiscal consolidation remains slow, while economic growth is improving at a slower pace than we previously envisaged.”

The stable outlook, it said, signals its “assessment that non-oil-sector improvements could support higher economic growth and fiscal revenues over the next 12 months.”
It warned that Nigeria risks losing the ratings “if we don’t see the significant fall in fiscal deficits that we expect in our base case,” assuring also that it could upgrade the country “if we see much higher economic growth prospects than our base case or if Nigeria’s external liquidity indicator improves, perhaps due to further accumulation of international reserves alongside an extension of external debt maturities.”
The ratings, it continued are based by moderate external indebtedness and a relatively low general government debt stock, although debt-servicing costs remain high, just as it “remain constrained by our view of the country’s low economic wealth, weak institutional capacity, lower real GDP per capita trend growth rates than peers at similar development levels, and low monetary policy credibility.”
On institutional and economic profile, S&P noted Nigeria’s weak economic performance, even as “current pace of economic growth remains low relative to peers with similar wealth levels.

“Political decision-making in Nigeria can be unpredictable, since government institutions are relatively weak.”
Also going for Nigeria, it continued, is that “despite underlying tensions and complexities,” the country’s democracy successfully “weathered a transfer of power between different political parties,” in reference to the May 29, 2015 transfer of power from then President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
While noting the economy’s 0.8% growth in real terms, in 2017, compared with a 1.6% contraction in 2016 as it recovered from recession driven by improvements in oil prices, increasing foreign currency inflows, and strong agricultural sector performance, even as oil production stabilized at about 1.9m to 2.1m barrels per day, after disruptions in early
2017.

“In the near term, we estimate that the economy will grow at 2.4% of GDP in 2018 (compared with our previous forecast of 3%) and will average 2.8% in 2018-2021.
“Excluding agriculture, the non-oil economy has yet to fully respond to the improving conditions, with modest growth of less than 1% in 2017.
Thus, we expect non-oil-sector improvements will support our forecasts for higher economic growth. However, real per capita GDP growth of negative 0.19% (which we estimate by using 10-year weighted-average growth) remains well below that of peers with similar wealth levels. Nigeria has significant infrastructure and energy shortfalls and low income levels, with GDP per capita estimated at US$1,800 in 2018.”
The S&P report also acknowledged that the country “is taking steps to improve its governance and strengthen the business environment. The latest World Bank Ease of Doing Business Indicators show Nigeria improving 24 places to No. 145 of 190 countries.

“Fiscal budgets are frequently passed well after the year has begun, which delays the government’s responsiveness to economic challenges. We also view decision-making as largely centralized in the person of the president, although we note that the federal system of government helps to redistribute wealth and spread power to some extent.”
Still on the country’s over-reliance on oil revenue, especially when prices are high, S&P believes it exposes “Nigeria to significant volatility, in terms of trade and government revenues. Rising oil prices, a relatively new market-determined exchange rate window introduced in April 2017, and government external borrowings are helping to increase foreign currency inflows into the economy, allowing the central bank to increase foreign-exchange reserve buffers.

The agency also revised its 2017 general-government fiscal deficit estimate to above 5% of GDP, up from its initial 3.5% assumption in September 2017, based on preliminary outturn.
It also estimated annual change in net general government debt at average 3.6% of GDP in 2018-2021, compared with 3% previously, “based on slower non-oil revenue growth compared with budget, transfers by federal government to the lower levels of government remaining at a high level, a faster implementation of capital budget spending, and overall still relatively high deficits of states and local governments.”
The rising oil related revenues, not withstanding, S&P believes fiscal adjustment challenges remain for Nigeria this year.

While states and local governments remain heavily dependent of the month Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributions and running deficits, expected to remain at around 1% of GDP until 2019, the agency projected an overall general government deficit, excluding “the clearance of fiscal arrears to contractors, suppliers, and lower levels of government.
“If a proposed plan to clear fiscal arrears, estimated between 2% and 3% of GDP, is approved by the national assembly in 2018, through the issuance of Naira-denominated debt securities, it could increase our deficit and debt projections by the same margin.

“Overall, we forecast that Nigeria’s gross general government debt stock (consolidating debt at the federal, state, and local government levels) will average 27% of GDP for 2018-2021, comparing favorably with peer countries’ ratios. We also anticipate that general government debt, net of liquid assets, will average 18% of GDP in 2018-2021.”
“We include debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON; around 5% of 2018 GDP)–created to resolve the nonperforming loan (NPL) assets of the Nigerian banks–in our calculation of gross and net debt. Over 70% of government debt is denominated in Naira.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/sp-upholds-nigerias-b-b-rating-rising-oil-prices-production-fx-policy/#more

Julius Berger Returns To Profit, Nets N2.57bn In 2017, Offers N0.25 Dividend

Nigeria’s construction giant, Julius Berger Nigeria Plc reported a return to profit in the 2017 financial year, posting N2.572bn, compared to a loss of N2.398bn in the prior year, helped by significant growth in “other gains” and investment income.
The board has therefore recommended a dividend per share of 25 kobo only, representing a total payout of N330m, for consideration and approval by shareholders at the annual general meeting slated for June 21, 2018 in Abuja.
The fit was achieved, according to the result submitted through the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday, came despite the 2.08% limp to N141.89bn revenue from N138.993bn in 2016.

Segmental analysis of the revenue showed that the bulk came from civil works which fetched N74.301bn, up from N72.783bn; and building works, which rose from N58.872bn to N60.099bn; while income from services remained flat at N7.489bn from N7.336bn.
More specifically, construction contracts accounted for N135.29bn revenue, up from N131.657bn; while rendering of services came to N6.599bn from N7.336bn.

Cost of sales jumped to N97.591bn from N84.767bn; leaving gross profit at N44.298bn, down from previous N54.226bn.
Marketing expenses dropped from N53.327m to N47.851m; just as administrative expenses dropped slightly from N37.38bn to N35.564bn; resulting in operating profit of N8.686bn, down by N8.106bn or 48.27% from N17.792bn in the 2016 full year.

Investment income boosted the company’s finances by 295.7% from N284.681m in the preceding year to N1.126bn, mainly from the N1.028bn dividend received, an item head that did not exist in 2016; even as interest income dropped from N284.681m to N97.932m.
Other gains improved to N4.076bn from N1.443bn, representing a N2.633bn or 18246%; earned mainly from the N3.215bn profit from sale of property, plant and equipment, compared to the previous N4.495bn. Net foreign exchange gains stood at N185.943m from the N5.704bn loss; ahead of the N674.93m sundry income, as against the N2.652bn.

Finance cost rose to N6.9bn from N5.784bn, out of which interest and overdraft facilities amounted to N5.411bn from N3.961bn; interest on loan dropped slightly from N1.498bn to N1.327bn; while other finance charges fell from N324.52m to N161.176m.
Foreign exchange acquisition loss fell from N14.234bn from N3.249bn; following which profit before tax stood at N3.739bn from a a loss of N1.498bn. Profit from the civil works segment fell by a significantly 48.27% to N6.745bn from N13.04bn; just as building works profit dropped to N1.716bn from N3.319bn, representing a 48.29% decline; while services dropped from N432.669m, from N223.818m
Net profit for the period represented 207.22% improvement over the N2.398bn net, represented Earnings Per Share of N3.61, from the N3.36 loss.

Dividend payment is slated for June 22 for shareholders whose names are in the register when it is closed from June 4 to 6, 2018, according to a notice by Mrs. Cecilia Madueke, Julius Berger’s Company Secretary.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/julius-berger-returns-profit-nets-n2-57bn-2017-offers-n0-25-dividend/#more

Photo News: NSE Celebrates 2018 Global Money Week


Caption: From left, Mrs. Temitayo Ade-Peters, Lead, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE); Bola Adeeko, Head, Shared Services Division, NSE; Abimbola Babalola, Head, Market Surveillance and Investigation, NSE; Mrs. Simi Nwogugu, Executive Director, Junior Achievement Nigeria (JAN) during the NSE 2018 Global Money Week Celebration at the Exchange on Friday, March 16, 2018.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/photo-news-nse-celebrates-2018-global-money-week/#more

Amnesty Report Alleges Shell, Eni Of Misleeding Nigeria On Oil Spills

A new report by Amnesty International say Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Eni SpA may have misled Nigeria’s regulators by wrongly attributing oil spills to theft and sabotage in order to avoid paying compensation to affected communities in the Niger Delta region.
There were “at least 89 spills may have been wrongly labeled as theft or sabotage when in fact they were caused by ‘operational’ faults,” Bloomberg reported the London-based group said in the report released on Thursday.
“Of these, 46 are from Shell and 43 are from Eni. If confirmed, this would mean that dozens of affected communities have not received the compensation that they deserve.”

Shell and Eni, along with ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Total SA operate joint ventures with state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. that pump most of the crude of Africa’s biggest producer. In the southern Niger River delta, which is home to the country’s oil and gas industry, local communities are frequently in conflict with energy companies over allegations of pollution and environmental degradation.
Shell’s Nigerian arm said in an emailed statement that “the allegations leveled by Amnesty International are false, without merit and fail to recognize the complex environment in which the company operates.

The company said it “responds to spill incidents as quickly as it can and cleans up spills from its facilities regardless of the cause.”
Details of the alleged spills said to have occurred from 2011, in the case of Shell, and from 2014 for Eni, have been given to the Nigerian government, which is being urged to reopen investigations into the incidents, Amnesty said.

Eni will make a statement later in response to the allegations by Amnesty International, a company official said when contacted for comment.
Shell and Eni have been on trial in Italy since March 5 over bribery charges involving an oil field in Nigeria. They are accused of having paid $1.1 billion to the Nigerian government in 2011 for a license to drill in deep waters off the Nigerian coast.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/amnesty-report-alleges-shell-eni-misleeding-nigeria-oil-spills/#more

Expect Continued Repositioning, As Profit Taking Wanes Amid More Earnings Surprises


Market Update for March 15, 2018

Nigeria’s stock market on Thursday had another weak trading session that was highly volatile, pulling back below its shortest moving averages of 20 and 50 to touch the lower band of the Bollinger, near the recent strong support level of 41,883.82 basis points. A breakdown of this level may lead the market to 37,795.62bp, but with the earnings season midstream, just as the torrent of positive economic data like the February inflation data that stood at 14.33% from 15.3% in the prior month, resulting in 13 straight months of decline. This continues to reflect the impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued intervention in the foreign exchange market, which had supported the relatively stable exchange rate, besides boosting the ongoing economic recovery and company fundamentals.

These and the sentiment induced low price regime in the market are expected to attract bargain hunters at this point and in the process support a market rebound as more scorecards are expected in the coming days and ahead of the March 31, deadline for submission of audited results for those with December 2017 year end.

The day started out with a little pop to the upside, before a pullback to support which could not get through, and then it rolled over to nominal lows on the NSE Index, but the NSE Consumer goods did not confirm. The indexes rolled back down in what looks like wedges, or some sort of consolidation.

The weak state of the market is gradually triggering another correction mode after an attempt to recover from the February global markets induces shakeout as a result of lack of a monetary policy and unclear fiscal direction on the back of huge borrowings. This case is made worse by the fact that the 2018 budget continues to lie with the National Assembly, amidst an ongoing blame game between the presidency and the National Assembly over who is responsible for the delayed passage by the federal legislators.
These have no doubt slowed down the inflow of funds into the nation’s market and economy. The dwindling liquidity is influencing the market negatively despite the impressive earnings and high dividend payout at the ongoing earnings reporting season, which the market has repeatedly turned a blind eye to.

Technically, the market’s buying pressure of 17% on a low volume traded, is signaling distribution phase, while selling position was 83%. Volume index was 0.57 with money flow index energy weakened at 47.62 point from the previous day’s level of 53.03 points.
Meanwhile, the All Share index shed 654.11 points to close at 42,185.38bp after opening at 42,839.49 basis points, representing a decline of 1.53% on low traded volume that is higher than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation for the day lost N234bn to close at N15.09tr from an opening value of N15.21tr which also represented 1.53% value loss in investors’ portfolios.

The downturn was due to negative investors sentiment that affected the share price of blue chip stocks, despite positive and high dividend payout. This impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, cutting it to 10.21%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period improved to N1.62 trillion, representing 11.76% YTD growth.
The composite index NSEASI and other sectorial indexes were lower, except for the NSE Consumer index that closed higher for the day due to price appreciation in Nestle and Dangote Sugar. Market breadth remained negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 39:15.
Market activities were mixed as volume was up by 8.34% to 404.66m against the previous day 373.52m, while value was down by 11.94% to N6.03bn from the previous day N6.85bn.

Transaction volume for the day was boosted by financial services stocks like Zenith Bank, FBNH, Regency Insurance, Fidelity Bank and UBA which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
NPF Microfinance and JohnHolt were the top performing stocks with 9.78% and 4.00% gain respectively to close at N2.02 and N0.53 on market sentiments, while Fidelity Bank and Japual Oil were the worst performers, shedding 9.23% and 8.75% to close at N2.55 and N0.73 respectively on market forces and profit booking respectively.

Market Outlook

We expect the negative sentiment to change as more scorecards hit the market today and next week. We do expect this current situation to linger in a recovery economy with stronger corporate earnings, positive economic data and transparent market that is technology driven.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the INVEST 2018 traders and the investors’ summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.

Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
Meanwhile, the Investdata equity trading and investment education, comes up in Port Harcount tomorrow, this edition is tagged: “Power of Earnings Season For Profitable Trading and Investing” we would be simplifying stock market investing is billed for Saturday, March 17, 2018 at Emerald Hotel Limited, Rumuola. For more details call 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223

Ambrose Omordion
CRO | Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/expect-continued-repositioning-profit-taking-wanes-amid-earnings-surprises/#more

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For Week Ended March 16, 2018

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/invstdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-week-ended/

@nsenigeria Corporate Actions As At Week Ended March 16, 2018


http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nsenigeria-corporate-actions-week-ended-march-16-2018/

Reversals Ahead On NSE, Amid Low Prices, More Earnings Reports, Positive Economic Indices, Position Taking


Market Update for Week Ended March 16 and Outlook for March 19-23

The equity market in the past week closed lower to halt two consecutive weeks of recovery trend, despite the combination of earnings surprises from quoted companies, improving consumer confidence level and the outpouring of positive economic data into the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

The continued negative sentiments for the ongoing earnings season so far is a great disappointment for market players, especially traders that had positioned for capital gains on the strength of market reactions to released numbers, but so far it had been a different story. The sad reality has been that share price of companies posting positive Q4 numbers with high dividend payouts have continued to nosedive, thereby propelling high volatility in the market, just as optimism among traders in the season and numbers released so far is fading away. On the last trading day of the week, it seems, the market was beginning to react less negatively to positive earnings as supply from market makers and other players continued to becloud the market which is currently suffering from weak demand side as a result of low liquidity and panic selling to cut losses for traders that position in expectation of corporate earnings.

Also, there is the absence of fresh funds from the foreign investors and institutional investors such as Pension Fund Administrators (PFA) entering the market at this point, despite the impressive numbers and high Dividend Yields; as fixed income securities, especially bond and other money market rates are declining. The expected rate cut is in sight, with a continued decline in the consumer price index, when the Senate finally screens two deputy governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and four Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members before the end of March 2018. As Godwin Emefiele, the CBN Governor said last week, the MPC meeting is likely to hold in the first week of April to give monetary policy framework and guidance for the second quarter of the year. Thisday newspapers on Monday reported the CBN as fixing the MPC meeting for April 3 and 4, 2018. This follows the high interest rate militating against activities that will further drive the expected economic growth, which is also influencing prices on the NSE, considering the current low valuation in the market.

The impressive full year earnings reports from Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank and Stanbic IBTC released to the market during the week under review have however elicited a declining pattern in their stock price performances, just like the earlier numbers released before then, except for Stanbic that move to a new 52-week high.
The pullback in the market is a function of confidence in the economy, especially as this is a pre-election year, a situation that has reflected in the disagreements over the proposed change in the election time table given by the umpire- Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This is not forgetting the delayed approval of MPC members by the Senate, just as the 2018 budget, with the Presidency and National Assemble foot-dragging on major issues. The S&P’s recent affirmation of the nation’s ‘BB’ rating and stable outlook on the strength of increased in crude oil production and price, sustained expansion of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and the CBN’s foreign exchange intervention policy that is propelling the economic recovery, just as it warned about the nation’s increasing deficit (READ).

Meanwhile, the NSE’s composite All-Share index pullback to breakdown the recent strong support level of 42,000 on a strong negative sentiment to 41,935.93 with low traded volume after touching the week high of 43,228.94 basis points from low of 41, 741.34bp. This situation may be linked to major market players discounting of the numbers even before they hit the market and the CBN’s recent guideline for dividend payment by banks.

Market technicals for the period were negative and mixed as traded volume was low on negative market breadth and strong selling pressure of 88% and buying volume at 12% of the week’s total transaction to halt a two-week positive market performance.
The All Share Index for the period shed 1,231.93 points to close at 41,935.93 points, after opening from 43,167.86 points, representing a 2.85% decline on a relatively low volume, which was lower than previous week’s. Similarly, market capitalisation lost all of N506 billion to close lower at N15tr from its opening value of N15.51tr, representing 3.26% value loss. Within the period Africa Prudential’s share price was adjusted for dividend of N0.40.

The negative sentiments in the market was maintained during the period with increased selling positions targeted at low, medium and high cap stocks, with particular attention on Fidelity Bank, FBNH, Zenith Bank and Japual Oil, among others. With anticipation of more numbers, there is the high possibility of the results beating estimates as we have seen so far. Loss within the period impacted negatively on the NSE’s year-to-date returns which dropped to 9.66%, even as market capitalisation growth for the period fell to N1.64tr, representing a 10.12% gain from the year’s opening value.

During the week, low cap stocks were dominant on the top advancers table as best performing equities. These are low price stocks with positive market sentiment, with high possibility of dividend payment. Transactions were driven by activities in the financial services, consumer goods and Oil/Gas sectors, even as market breadth was negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 60:25 on a low volume of trades to short-live the two-week bull run.

The market was down and mixed for the period as the NSEASI kicked off on a negative note with loss of 0.26%, which was marginally reversed on the second trading day with a flat gain of 0.04%, pulling back at the end of midweek trading when it shed 0.54%. This was sustained on Thursday with 1.53% loss which was extended till last trading day of the week when the index shed another 0.59%, bringing total loss to 2.85% as traders and investors were disappointed by the negative reaction to positive earnings hitting the market.
The NSE index and all sectoral indices closed in red for the period, except for NSE Insurance that was green with 0.25%. Market activities in volume and value were down by 20.78% and 8.33% to 2.44bn shares worth N36.66bn from the previous week 3.08bn units valued at N39.99bn.

The best performing stocks during the week, were ABC Transport and John Holt, gaining 14.29% and 12.5% respectively to close at N0.48 and N0.54 per share, due to market sentiments for low priced stock, while the worst performing for the period were Japual Oil and Fidelity Bank that lost 30.93% and 22.48%, closing at N0.67 and N2.31 respectively on the back of market forces and profit taking.

Market Outlook
We expect a reversal on the strength of low prices and more earnings reports to hit the market, with economic indices remaining strongly positive for bargain hunters to take advantage of this pullback to position for short trading. Even as more income investors take position in value and dividend paying stocks, ahead of 2018 Q1 corporate earnings and economic data.
Also, expect volatility and repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payout and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is approaching.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the rest of the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the INVEST 2018 traders and the investors’ summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.

Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing eduction train move to Abuja April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/reversals-ahead-nse-amid-low-prices-earnings-reports-positive-economic-indices-position-taking/#more

Low Valuation, High Dividend Yield Lure Investors, As Bargain Hunters Return


Market Update for March 22, 2018

It was a spectacular trading session on Nigeria’s equity market on Thursday, as the benchmark All-Share index halted a six-day consistent pullback of mixed investors sentiment but weak inflow that kept the market’s movement in the south direction, irrespective of impressive earnings and dividend payouts announced by the quoted companies.

As INVESTDATA has noted repeatedly, the market’s technical correction had created buy opportunities for bargain hunters to capitalize on the decline and relatively low equity prices to position for short term rally. Money flow index turned the corner, moving north at the end of Thursday’s trading session to signal that funds are again entering the market after several days of seizure apparently to wait for more numbers, especially the blue-chips and banking stocks.

The day’s trading started with a little gap up, but pulled back by the mid-morning when it became obvious that the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) Index was holding support. Thereafter it took off again, and in the process, eliminated some loses from midweek’s low position. That is when it had a very strong intraday rally by the afternoon to hit a high of 41,640.04 basis points from its 41,370.69 low pullback to test, but held once again, and ran up to the session’s highs with about an hour to go, holding on till the close of the day’s session.
This high traded volume that reversed the downtrend should trigger traders and investors demand for stocks in an earnings reporting season, as the market awaits more positive numbers with recommendation of juicy dividend. However, market rebounded in line with INVESTDATA’s expectations as bargain hunters hit the market to take advantage of the high dividend payouts and yields.

Market technicals for the day were strong and positive despite the seeming flat market breadth, with buying pressure improving to 98% on a high volume traded that signals improved investors demand for stocks, while selling position stood at 2%. Volume index was 1.16 with money flow index momentum looking up at 35.65 point from the previous day’s 28.13 points.
The All Share index for the day gained 138.36 points to close at 41,49633.79 basis points after opening at 41,496.25bp, representing a growth of 0.33% on high traded volume that is higher than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation was up by N195.79bn to close at N15.04tr from an opening value of N14.85tr which also represented a 0.33% value gain.

The upturn resulted from value gain in stocks like Fidelity Bank, FCMB, PZ Cussons, UBA, Nigerian Breweries, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, Dangote Flour, Flourmills and Stanbic IBTC. This expectedly impacted positively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, which rose to 8.87%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period stood at N1.43tr, representing a 10.51% YTD growth.

The market’s composite index and other market indices were higher except for the NSE AseM that closed lower. Market breadth for the day was slightly positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 29:28, while market activities rose in volume and value by 11.0% and 30.2% respectively to 542.35m shares, worth N7.35bn from the previous day’s 488.7m units valued N5.64bn.
Transaction volume was boosted by financial services stocks like: Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, FBNH and UBA, which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.

The best performing stocks was GSK which gained 10.20% to close at N24.30 on the back of the N7.50 per share special dividend proposed and market sentiments, while Japual Oil notched 8.62% at N0.63 after the plethora of profit taking, especially following doubts over the Milost investment in the country. Multverse and Unity Kapital were the worst performers, shedding 8.70% and 8.33% to close at N0.21 and N0.22 respectively on market forces.

Market Outlook
Being the last trading day of the week, profit taking is expected but due to the previous days of downtrend, we foresee the improved sentiment continuing as bargain hunters take opportunities of low prices. This follows expectation of more earnings reports hitting the market up till Friday and beyond, especially as companies have up to Thursday next week as regulatory deadline to submit their December year-end audited results in line with the post-listing rule of the NSE. We do not expect this pullback to linger on, in a recovering economy with the outpouring of stronger corporate earnings, positive economic data and transparent market that is technology driven.

Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.
Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.

We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/low-valuation-high-dividend-yield-lure-investors-bargain-hunters-return/

Ahead April 3 Meeting, Senate Clears 2 CBN Deputy Govs, 3 MPC Members, Rejects 1


Nigeria’s upper legislative chamber- the Senate, on Thursday approved the appointment Mrs. Aisha Ahmad and of Edward Lametek Adamu as Deputy Governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and three of the four Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members nominated by President Muhammadu Buhari.

Despite the Senate’s decision to withhold the approval of the fourth MPC, the two-day meeting at which the nation’s benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPC) is fixed is expected to open on April 3 as announced by Godwin Emefiele, the CBN Governor.
Considering the report of the Committee on Banking, Insurance and other Financial Institutions, presented by Senator Rafiu Adebayo, Senate President Bukola Saraki said Aisha Ahmad and Edward Lametek Adamu had been confirmed as deputy governors, while Prof. Festus Adenikinju, Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi and Robert Chinwendu Asogwa had been appointed to the MPC.

The Senate however rejected the nomination of Asheikh Maidugu, urging the President to expedite action and present a replacement for screening.
Dr. Saraki, while thanking the committee members and wishing the MPC members a fruitful and successful tenure, noted that the “exercise will allow the Central Bank to continue to play its role in providing stability in our economy.”
On the comment by the Senate Leader, Senator Ahmed Lawan, that the MPC is not fully constituted because of the rejected nominee, Senator Saraki said the issue will be revisited when the Senate reconvenes next week.

Commenting specifically on Edward Adamu who was appointed Deputy Governor from his position as Director, Human Resources at the apex bank, Saraki said such “will be great encouragement to the staff of the CBN who will see one of their own in this position. I am sure it will boost the morale within the institution.”

While also congratulating Mrs. Ahmad, he said “the two new Deputy Governors of the CBN are coming at a time when the economy is a major issue. We have just come out of a recession and we need to continue with our economic growth and see the sustainability of the foreign exchange and other related challenges.
“We hope that the new new Deputy Governors will work with the Governor to move the country and our economy in the right direction,” he stressed.

He urged the CBN management to continue working closely with the National Assembly to update the nation’s legislators “on the progress that is achieved.”

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/ahead-april-3-mpc-meeting-senate-clears-2-cbn-deputy-govs-3-mpc-members-rejects-1/

Low Valuation, High Dividend Yield Lure Investors, As Bargain Hunters Return


Market Update for March 22, 2018

It was a spectacular trading session on Nigeria’s equity market on Thursday, as the benchmark All-Share index halted a six-day consistent pullback of mixed investors sentiment but weak inflow that kept the market’s movement in the south direction, irrespective of impressive earnings and dividend payouts announced by the quoted companies.
As INVESTDATA has noted repeatedly, the market’s technical correction had created buy opportunities for bargain hunters to capitalize on the decline and relatively low equity prices to position for short term rally. Money flow index turned the corner, moving north at the end of Thursday’s trading session to signal that funds are again entering the market after several days of seizure apparently to wait for more numbers, especially the blue-chips and banking stocks.

The day’s trading started with a little gap up, but pulled back by the mid-morning when it became obvious that the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) Index was holding support. Thereafter it took off again, and in the process, eliminated some loses from midweek’s low position. That is when it had a very strong intraday rally by the afternoon to hit a high of 41,640.04 basis points from its 41,370.69 low pullback to test, but held once again, and ran up to the session’s highs with about an hour to go, holding on till the close of the day’s session.
This high traded volume that reversed the downtrend should trigger traders and investors demand for stocks in an earnings reporting season, as the market awaits more positive numbers with recommendation of juicy dividend. However, market rebounded in line with INVESTDATA’s expectations as bargain hunters hit the market to take advantage of the high dividend payouts and yields.
Market technicals for the day were strong and positive despite the seeming flat market breadth, with buying pressure improving to 98% on a high volume traded that signals improved investors demand for stocks, while selling position stood at 2%. Volume index was 1.16 with money flow index momentum looking up at 35.65 point from the previous day’s 28.13 points.

The All Share index for the day gained 138.36 points to close at 41,49633.79 basis points after opening at 41,496.25bp, representing a growth of 0.33% on high traded volume that is higher than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation was up by N195.79bn to close at N15.04tr from an opening value of N14.85tr which also represented a 0.33% value gain.

The upturn resulted from value gain in stocks like Fidelity Bank, FCMB, PZ Cussons, UBA, Nigerian Breweries, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, Dangote Flour, Flourmills and Stanbic IBTC. This expectedly impacted positively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, which rose to 8.87%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period stood at N1.43tr, representing a 10.51% YTD growth.
The market’s composite index and other market indices were higher except for the NSE AseM that closed lower. Market breadth for the day was slightly positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 29:28, while market activities rose in volume and value by 11.0% and 30.2% respectively to 542.35m shares, worth N7.35bn from the previous day’s 488.7m units valued N5.64bn.
Transaction volume was boosted by financial services stocks like: Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, FBNH and UBA, which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.

The best performing stocks was GSK which gained 10.20% to close at N24.30 on the back of the N7.50 per share special dividend proposed and market sentiments, while Japual Oil notched 8.62% at N0.63 after the plethora of profit taking, especially following doubts over the Milost investment in the country. Multverse and Unity Kapital were the worst performers, shedding 8.70% and 8.33% to close at N0.21 and N0.22 respectively on market forces.

Market Outlook
Being the last trading day of the week, profit taking is expected but due to the previous days of downtrend, we foresee the improved sentiment continuing as bargain hunters take opportunities of low prices. This follows expectation of more earnings reports hitting the market up till Friday and beyond, especially as companies have up to Thursday next week as regulatory deadline to submit their December year-end audited results in line with the post-listing rule of the NSE. We do not expect this pullback to linger on, in a recovering economy with the outpouring of stronger corporate earnings, positive economic data and transparent market that is technology driven.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.
Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/low-valuation-high-dividend-yield-lure-investors-bargain-hunters-return/

ECOWAS single currency in 2020? Not credible


By Charles Robertson, Renaissance Capital

Despite the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) declaring last month that they will push ahead with a single currency by 2020, we think this is not credible. Nigeria’s critique that a single currency is unwise at this time is valid. We think an East African single currency by 2024 is also unlikely.

Ghana says it’s keen for a single ECOWAS currency by 2020, even without Nigeria

The market has entirely ignored the leaders of ECOWAS who on 21 February reaffirmed their commitment to a single currency for up to 15 ECOWAS member states, to be enacted by 2020. This is partly explicable because Nigeria has made clear its lack of interest in joining the single currency at this stage. While ECOWAS had a GDP of $566bn in 2017 (IMF estimate) or 25% of Africa’s and 37% of SSA’s GDP, without Nigeria, the figures are less significant at $171bn and 8% and 11%, respectively, of which half would be accounted for by Ivory Coast and Ghana alone. But more important for the market is that 2020 looks impossible to achieve, in our view, which raises the question as to why the target was reiterated and whether it is in fact a good idea.

A nascent West African central bank was already established in 2001

A single currency for ECOWAS has been on the agenda for at least a generation. Over a decade ago, the target was a single currency for the West African countries not already in the CFA franc zone, to be established in 2015, and then integrated with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries by 2020. A West African Monetary Institute was set up – and still exists – to enact this single currency. Its last annual report was for 2015 and the latest statistical data on its website are for 2011-2012. Nothing we can find suggests the “by 2020” date is realistic.

Ghana might like to see borrowing costs drop by 50-90% and the stock market boom

We can guess why Ghana may be keen to join a single currency with others in the region. The Bank of Ghana policy rate is 20%, while WAEMU short rates are around 2-3%. Ten-year bond yields at 15.7% in Ghana would halve if they could converge at WAEMU borrowing costs. Ghana could enjoy a boom as its local debt servicing costs would plunge by 50-90%, and the cost of private sector borrowing could fall sharply too. It is a similar incentive to Greece’s in 2000, which this analyst recognised at the time, but warned would have severe repercussions for the country in 2005 (three years too early). The Greek stock market trebled in just over a year as it became clear it would join the euro, lost all those gains within three years, then more than trebled again in the subsequent four years before collapsing back to 1995 levels today.

But we think deep structural differences will emerge

Encouraging an extreme boom-and-bust cycle is not our primary concern though with the ECOWAS plan. Our core worry is that Ghana in particular is well placed to pull ahead of WAEMU countries in a dramatic fashion in the coming decade. Literacy data imply it can industrialise now, and grow at a sustainable 6-9% annually, while WAEMU countries cannot do so for another generation, and Nigeria is unlikely to do so for a decade. This would lead to very significant structural differences within ECOWAS, which will be highly challenging for any central bank to manage. Meanwhile we struggle to see why WAEMU countries would drop the CFA which seems to be working well, for an untested new currency regime. Last, we agree with Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari who raised many valid and economically insightful reasons to suggest a common currency is unwise at this time.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/ecowas-single-currency-2020-not-credible/#more

Photo News: Institute Of Directors Nigeria President Sound Closing Gong On NSE


Caption: Dr. Mrs. Ije Jidenma, F.IoD, Second Vice President, Institute of Director (IoD); Oscar Onyema, Chief Executive Officer, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE); Alhaji Ahmed Rufai Mohammed, President/Chairman of Council, IoD; Chief (Dr.) Chris Okunowo, First Vice President, IoD; Samuel Yemi Akeju, Immediate Past President, IoD and Bola Adeeko, Head, Shared Services Division, NSE during the Closing Gong Ceremony at the Exchange 0n Tuesday, March 20, 2018.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/photo-news-institute-directors-nigeria-president-sound-closing-gong-nse/#more

Photo News: Finance Minister, Gates Foundation, Meet On Vaccine Financing For Nigeria


Caption: Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun; Co-Chair of Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Mr. Bill Gate; President, Global Development, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Chris Elias; Country Director, Nigeria Office of Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Paulin Basinga, during a meeting on vaccine financing and support for Nigeria’s fiscal agenda in Abuja on Thursday, 22nd March, 2018.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/photo-news-finance-minister-gates-foundation-meet-vaccine-financing-nigeria/#more

Expect Month-End Rebalancing, Positioning, Ahead Regulatory Deadline For December Accounts

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/expect-month-end-rebalancing-positioning-ahead-regulatory-deadline-december-accounts/

Reversal Imminent Ahead Of Quarter-end Portfolio Rebalancing, MPC Meeting

The stock market started the week on Monday very volatile, closing flat, as the day started out with a gap up which was sustained from the mid-morning till noon before a reversal due to the intra-day profit booking in banking stocks that plunged the index in the closing minutes. This pull was strong enough, forcing the session to close marginally lower.
Trading in recent days have formed a double bottom, but continues to side-trend at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which suggests that the market is resisting to breakdown this major support despite the mixed sentiment in the trading arena. The NSE index has retested this level in the last four trading sessions, trying to retrace up on a mixed volume of up and down movements. Bottoming out of the Nigerian Stock Exchange’s All-Share index is imminent, especially as investor sentiments are strengthening, as the earnings reporting seasons reaches its peak this week, just as the first quarter ends and the filings are expected by the end of April.
During Monday’s trading session also, the index hit intraday highs of 41,662.40 basis points in the afternoon before the pullback to the low of 41,454.30 at which it closed the day. This resulted from value loss by the combination of Guaranty Trust Bank, Seplat Petroleum Development Company, Unilever, Forte Oil and Lafarge Africa.

The mixed market technicals for the day supports rebound in Tuesday’s trading sessions, the low traded volume on a selling pressure of 100% with positive market breadth, equally signals the impact of high dividend attraction for investors who are taking advantage of the markdown dates to position and move their funds for dividend income, considering the high yields in the short-term. Volume index was 0.82 with money flow index momentum looking up at 38.85 points, slightly better than previous day’s 38.37 points.
Meanwhile, the composite index NSEASI shed 17.80 points to close at 41,454.30 basis points after opening at 41,472.10bp, representing a growth of 0.04% on low traded volume that is lower than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation for the day lost N5.97bn to close at N14.98tr from an opening value of N14.98tr which also represented a 0.04% value loss.

The downturn was as a result of price decline among the low, medium and high cap stocks which slight impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, to contract at 8.40%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period stood at N1.37tr, representing a 10.04% YTD growth.
Market and sectorial performance were mixed, as the benchmark index and other market indices closed lower, except for the NSE Insurance and NSE Consumer Goods that closed higher. Market breadth for the day was positive as advancers outweighed decliners in the ratio of 34:17, while market activities were down in volume and value by 32.17% and 24.08% respectively to 379.93m shares, worth N5.13bn from the previous day’s 560.12m units valued N6.76bn.

Transaction volume was boosted by financial services, conglomerates and oil stocks like: Access Bank, Zenith Bank, UBA, Transcorp and Japaul Oil, which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
Custodian & Allied Insurance and GSK were the day’s best performing stocks, as they topped the advancers table, after gaining 10.00% to close at N4.51 and N28.05 respectively on the back of their strong dividend yields, while Forte Oil and Royal Exchange Assurance came out worst after losing 9.09% and 6.06% to close at N40.00 and N0.31 respectively on market forces and sentiments.
During the trading session, Chemical & Allied Products, Okomo Oil Palm and MRS Oil released their 2017 full year results, proposing N2.03, N3.00 dividends and 1:5 bonus shares respectively.

Market Outlook
We expect a reversal on the strength of end of the quarter fund managers trading account balance, expiration of 90-day statutory period to release December 31, year-end account which will result to more earnings reports to the market, ahead of first quarter economic data and corporate earnings to give the state of the economy and the companies so far in 2018. Even as more income investors take position in value and dividend paying stocks, alongside bargain hunters. As MPC meeting holds next week to give direction of the interest rate that will drive the economic recovery and inflow of funds.

Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.

It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.

Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/reversal-imminent-ahead-quarter-end-portfolio/#more

NSE Extends Bearish Trend, Amidst Hope For Economic Direction Ahead MPC Meeting


Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) Tuesday extended its bearish trend on a continued volatility wave to close lower amidst a low traded volume and negative sentiments, despite the impressive 2017 corporate earnings and weak inflow of funds into the market, which had made equity prices react positively to the high dividend payout and yields. Even so, major market players continue to stylishly take profit because they had factored in these numbers into their pricing before now, given that the stock market is a discounting machine that prices the future into the present.
Nigeria’s case is seemingly not peculiar, given the continued decline of equity market indicators in the international markets, due to technical shake up of global economies and markets, despite the rising crude oil price over the last year, trading above $65 per barrel which is near its 52-week high.
Trading on the NSE on Tuesday started out on a weak note which was sustained through the mid-morning till midday on the back of sell-offs, after which it spiked to an intraday high of 41,466.48 after touching low of 41,232.61 that had been the major support level it tested five trading days ago, making this level an inflection point. As such, any breakdown of this point will add to more than the 10% the market has lost so far from its year-high, which calls for cautious even when changing strategy to invest for dividend income.
Market technicals for the day was weak, as traded volume was low on a selling pressure of 95% with negative market breadth, signaling negative sentiment at the peak of earnings reporting season irrespective of strong numbers and high dividend. This should ordinary be of concern for the investing public as they await the outcome of next week’s Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) two-day meeting beginning on April Tuesday. Volume index was 0.77 with money flow index momentum looking down at 38.46 points, slightly better than previous day’s 38.85 points.
At the close of the day’s trading, the All-Share index shed 211.06 points to close at 41,243.24basis points after opening at 41,454.30bp, representing a 0.51% slide on volume that is lower than the previous day’s. Similarly, market capitalisation for the day fell by N76.25bn to close at N14.9tr from an opening value of N14.98tr which also represented a 0.51% dip in value as investors portfolio continue to bleed in an earnings season.
Price depreciation suffered by low, medium and high cap stocks like NB, Total Nigeria, Guinness, PZ, UBA, Zenith Bank, UBN,ETI, Double One, Cadbury, Seplat and Diamond Bank impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, which dropped to 7.84%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period reduced to N1.3tr, representing a 9.49% YTD growth.
The composite index and sectorial performance all closed in red, except for the NSE Industrial and NSE Consumer Goods that was green. Market breadth for the day was negative also as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 22:31. Market activities were down in volume and value by 7.12% and 19.30% respectively to 352.89m shares, worth N4.14bn from the previous day’s 379.93m units valued N5.13bn.
Transaction volume was boosted by financial services, conglomerates and oil stocks like: Japual Oil, Zenith Bank,FBNH, Transcorp and Access Bank, which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
The best performing stocks were GSK and MRS Oil that topped the advancers table, after gaining 10.12% and 5% respectively to close at N30.90 and N28.05 respectively on the back of their strong dividend yields and bonus share. Diamond Bank and International Brew were the worst after losing 7.32% and 5% to close at N1.90 and N54.15 respectively on market forces and profit taking.
During the trading session, CCNN (READ) released their 2017 full year results, proposing N1.25 dividends.

Market Outlook
Wednesday and Thursday, being the last two days to the expiration of the 90-day statutory period for companies with December year-end to release their audited accounts, we expect more earnings reports to the market, ahead of first quarter economic data and corporate earnings which would give the health status of the economy and the companies so far in 2018. With more income investors taking position in value and dividend paying stocks, alongside bargain hunters, we expect next week’s MPC meeting to give direction of the interest rate as inflation continues to decline thereby further driving the economic recovery and inflow of funds.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.
Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.
Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/nse-extends-bearish-trend-hope-for-economic-direction/

UK Banking Licence Will Help Us Support Africa’s Real Sector- Uzoka


Kennedy Uzoka, group managing director of the United Bank for Africa Plc, says the regulatory permission by its London subsidiary to carry out Wholesale Banking activities in the UK is another step to truly becoming Africa’s global bank, providing support to customers across the real sector of the continent’s economy.
A statement by the group said the upgrade of UBA Capital (Europe) Ltd to United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited, makes it only Sub-Saharan African bank to conduct banking activities in New York and London, as well as in 20 other countries across Africa.

The statement quoted Uzoka as saying: the “authorisation strengthens our capabilities in meeting the growing cross-border financing needs of our customers. It enhances our customer coverage and product offerings whilst positioning our group as an optimal conduit for trade and foreign investments into and across Africa as well as export flows to the United Kingdom.
“Importantly, the licence will enable us to fulfill our aspiration of deepening financial intermediation in Sub-Saharan Africa and providing the much-needed financial support to the broader real sector of the African economy,” he added.

Andrew Martin, CEO of United Bank for Africa (UK) Ltd, also described the enhanced positioning of the group as timely, coming “at a time when the UK is seeking to expand trade and broaden economic ties with Nigeria and Africa in general.”
Following the authorization, UBA (UK) will in addition to a full suite of treasury services, cash management, corporate lending and wholesale deposit offerings to professional and eligible counterparties, plans to extend its operations “to all aspects of trade finance; issuance, acceptance, confirmation and refinancing of Letters of Credit of different variations, including SBLCs.”
The broader licence is also expected to help in the group’s determination to broaden its earnings and profit, by especially growing the contributions from its operations outside of Nigeria.

At the end of 2017 full year, for example, the group’s revenue grew 20% to N462bn, a third of which is attributable to non-funded income, even as subsidiaries outside Nigeria contributed a third of the group’s top-line and 45% of profit for the year, which the management described as a remarkable improvement from the 31% made in 2016.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/uk-banking-licence-will-help-us-support-africas-real-sector-uzoka/

CCNN Reports 157% Net Profit Growth, Offers N1.57bn Dividend


The board of Cement Company of Northern Nigeria (CCNN), on Tuesday presented its audited result for the year ended December 31, 2017, showing that profit grew at a faster pace than turnover, just as cost of sales was constrained, just as the management successfully reduced borrowings for the period.

The directors have therefore recommended a dividend of N1.57bn, which translates to N1.25 per share for the period, to be distributed subject to shareholders’ approval at the next annual general meetinging.
Turnover for the period rose 39% from N14.087bn to N19.588bn, almost of which was earned from selling cement in Nigeria, while only N154.979m came from outside the country.

CCNN’s cost of sales could only rise by 18% to N11.983bn from N10.151bn, the lion’s share of which was the N6.694bn energy cost, as against N5.399bn in 2016; followed by N1.61bn spent on raw materials and consumables, down from N2.031bn; while salaries, wages and benefits gulped N1.403bn, up from N1.241bn. This resulted in gross profit of N7.605bn, which was 93% better than the N3.936bn recorded in the prior year.

Other income dropped to N103.213m from N138.319m, with insurance claims of N47.073m, as against N3.383m; followed by deferred revenue of N37.017m, down from N48.476m.
Selling and distribution expenses increased to N882.806m, up from N367.636m, of which distribution cost amounted to N707.331m, compared to the previous N109.805m.
Administrative expenses jumped to N2.598bn from N1.9bn, buoyed by the N760.821m for salaries, wages and benefits, which rose from N631.407m; followed by technical and management fees of N648.28m, as against the previous N459.055m.
Operating profit stood at N4.226bn, as against the previous N1.806bn.

Finance income slipped from N132.722m to N108.202m, with interest income at N123.833m from N51.425m, while interest on defined benefit obligation was negative at N15.631m from N81.297m; finance cost dropped to N131.901, down from N198.7m, with interest on borrowings dropping to N154.841m from N221.092m; bringing net finance expenses to N23.698m from N65.977m; while Profit before tax jumped to N4.203bn from N1.74bn, representing a 141% increase; just as net profit increased from N1.253bn to N3.223bn, which was a 157% improvement. The net profit translated to Earnings Per Share of 257 kobo, as against the previous 100 kobo.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/ccnn-reports-157-net-profit-growth-offers-n1-57bn-dividend/

Caution On NSE, Amidst Sustained Decline Despite Earnings Season Peak


Mid-week’s trading session on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) had a very hard roll over on the major support level to the downside, following through the four-day downtrend as a result of the persisting sell-offs to close the session lower on a high traded volume. It was a session that dragged the market deeper into the bearish zone as the NSE Index dropped at the opening, rallied back to intraday highs of 41,280.46 resistance level, but could not get through, came down and made lower-lows to breakdown the psychological line of 41,000 which had been an inflection point.

The NSE trading board was mixed, but mostly red as the highly capitalized stocks shed value, despite their impressive financials and high dividend payout for the 2017 financial year. The NSE All-Share index broke down the yellow trend line, confirming that the market has just entered its long bearish mode, since the full year earnings season has not influenced equity prices positively or supported market value. This further shows that not even the 2018 Q1 numbers will do much as per impacting the market, since liquidity is not flowing into the market. Rather, the Nigerian market is experiencing a liquidity squeeze as revealed by institutional money flow index of the NSE.
The recent performance of both the international and locally markets show that there is a clear divergent between the equity market and crude oil price movement. Before now, oil price movement had been linked to equity market movement, unlike the present situation when oil prices are looking up while equity markets globally are going south. All of these are happening despite the growth being experienced in the world economy and recovery being experienced here in Nigeria.
As Wednesday’s trading session had broken down the strong support level at this point, we advise cautious trading and positioning even when changing strategy to invest for dividend income.

The day’s technical positions were negative and mixed, as traded volume was high on a selling pressure of 90%. Market breadth was negative, signaling negative sentiment at the conclusion of a major earnings reporting season and end of first quarter and irrespective of strong numbers and high dividend payout. The NSE indicators continued to slide, gradually wiping away all the recorded gains before now. Volume index was 1.16 with money flow index momentum looking down at 37.12 points, from the previous day’s 38.46 points.
Meanwhile, the composite index NSE ASI shed 441.16 points to close at 40.802.08 basis points after opening at 41,243.24 bp, representing a 1.1% decline on a high volume that was higher than the previous day’s.
Similarly, market capitalisation for the day went down by N159.37bn to close at N14.74tr from an opening value of N14.9tr which also represented a 1.1% value loss, which further dragged investors’ position into red.
The continue downturn is attributed to selling pressure and profit booking on medium and high cap stocks like Dangote Cement, NB, Total Nigeria, GTBank, Access Bank, UBA, Zenith Bank, Fidelity, ETI, Flourmills and Dangote Sugar which impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-To-Date returns, which contracted to 6.69%, just as market capitalisation gains for the period reduced to N1.13tr, representing a 8.31% YTD growth.

The sectorial performance indexes were lower in the same direction with the general market index except for NSE Consumer Goods that closed higher. Market breadth for the day remained negative also as decliners dominated advancers in the ratio of 29:18.
Market activities were mixed as volume traded was up 51.6% to 535.19m from the previous day’s 352.89m units, while value traded dropped by 11.7% to N3.66bn from Tuesday’s value of N5.13bn.

Transaction volume was boosted by financial services and consumer goods stocks like: Champion Brewery, Skye Bank, Sterling Bank, FBNH and LASACO Insurance, which witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart.
GSK and Wema Bank were the best performing stocks that topped the advancers’ table, after gaining 10.00% and 9.4% respectively to close at N34.00 and N0.93 on the back of strong dividend yields and market forces, while Japaul Oil and Mutual Benefits were the worst performers after losing 8.5% and 5.4% to close at N0.65 and N0.35 respectively on profit taking and market forces.
During the trading session, AXA Mansard released its 2017 full-year results, proposing a final dividend of N0.06.

Market Outlook

Despite the continued bearish mode of the market, we expect a rebound, being the last trading day quarter and expiration day of the 90-day statutory period for companies with December year-end to release their audited accounts, expect more earnings reports to the market, ahead of first quarter economic data and corporate earnings which would give the health status of the economy and the companies so far in 2018. With more income investors taking position in value and dividend paying stocks, alongside bargain hunters, we expect next week’s MPC meeting to give direction of the interest rate as inflation continues to decline, thereby further driving the economic recovery and flow of funds.
Also, expect repositioning to continue, while profit taking will reduce on the strength of expected payouts and earnings surprises.
However, we would like to reiterate that investors should not panic but go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season when dividend payment is ongoing.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning for the year’s trading activities, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamentals.
It is time to combine fundamentals and technical tools to take decision by knowing the support and resistant level to reposition or exit any position. A stock market is in cycles. You must know the cycle it, or particular stocks therein are to successfully manage your trading and investment risk. For stocks that should be on your shopping list to buy in these seasonal changes as the year unfolds, sign up to INVESTDATA BUY AND SELL signal setup by calling 08032055467.

Get your home study pack of the INVEST 2018 Traders & Investors Summit and ride with the current recovery on Nigeria’s stock market and economy, thereby ensuring that you invest and trade with knowledge. You can also access stocks analysed in the home study pack of the Chart Summit held on February 24, 2018, including the 15 stock-picks for 2018 are available now to guide your positioning as trading for the year.
Comprehensive training materials on stock Trading and Investing for Financial Independence series are Available, you can play and watch on your mobile phone, laptop, desktop and TV set. Kindly call or send yes to 08032055467, 08028164086 or 08111811223.
We say big thanks to all the participants and resources persons that made Investdata Investment education workshop debut in Port Harcourt a success. The trading and investing education train move to Abuja on April 14, 2018.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/caution-nse-amidst-sustained-decline-despite-earnings-season-peak/

Wema, Two Others Get $50m Islamic Bank Loan For Nigerian SMEs


Jeddah-based Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) says it has extended a combined $50m to enable three Nigerian banks finance Small and Medium-scale Enterprises in the country.
According to Reuters, the multilateral body said it had signed $20m financing agreements with Wema Bank and Jaiz Bank; and another $10m for SunTrust Bank.
the ICD, the private sector arm of the Islamic Development Bank, has in recent years sought to expand its activities across Africa, home to a quarter of the world’s Muslims.

The funds would be extended to SMEs in sectors like health, communication, technology, manufacturing and agriculture, the ICD said.
The ICD has previously extended financing of $120 million for Nigerian businesses, while advising several African governments on their plans to issue Islamic bonds, including Senegal, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast.
A statement by the ICD Management noted “the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) have a crucial role to play in a country’s growth and development, and ICD has big plans for them. This is an important niche in all the member countries, especially in Africa. ICD is now focusing on increasing access to funding to the private sector by channeling the funds to established financial institutions in its member countries”.

The facility is coming days after Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun urged ICD to initiate innovative financial products to fund the private sector.
Mrs Adeosun who spoke while declaring open the third edition of the Africa Islamic Finance Forum organised by the Federal Ministry of Finance in collaboration with the ICD in Lagos on Tuesday, also called on the ICD to establish a long-term commitment toward the economic development of member countries.
Represented by Aliyu Ahmed, the Director, Economics Relations Department Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Adeosun said the forum establishes a strong partnership for the development of the private sector, the largest employer of labour worldwide, and the engine of growth in the country.

She assured that the Federal Government would explore every available opportunity to achieve strong and sustainable economic development.
“This serves as a tool for providing innovative sources of investment and financing support to our governments, large corporations, Small and Medium Enterprises, SMEs, and our entrepreneurs.

“We expect that ICD would be able to demonstrate to us its capacity and capability to deliver on this front,” said Mrs Adeosun.
Speaking earlier, the Acting Chief Executive officer of ICD, Mohammed Anmari, said the forum was to promote Islamic finance as well as showcase the finances the organisation had been providing.
In his words, “it is like any other pool of capital available from both local and international resources and the difference is that Islamic finance is about risk sharing.
“This comes handy in times of economic crisis or downturns and increases the resilience of the financial sector,” said Mr Anmari.

http://investdata.com.ng/2018/03/wema-two-others-get-50m-islamic-bank-loan-nigerian-smes/