NGSE Indicators Return To Red, As Nigeria’s Q2 GDP Data Confirms Economic Slowdown

Market Update for August 27, 2018
Trading and investing risks continue to mount on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), despite the prevailing low valuation as a result of two consecutive quarters of economic decline as confirmed by the nation’s Q2 GDP at 1.5%, judging by the data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), compared to 1.95% in the previous quarter. The GDP level had earlier fallen from 2.11% in 2017Q4, amidst the heightening political uncertainties ahead of next year’s general elections (READ MORE).

There is als a seeming lack of well-articulated economic reform policies by the fiscal authorities to match concerted efforts by the monetary authorities, including the proposed single-digit loans for agric and manufacturing companies in the country, using the pool of sterile funds kept with the apex bank.
Monday’s trading session was volatile, closing negative to reverse the two previous trading sessions of positive sentiment, starting out with a little move to the upside, before the ensuing selloff between the midday and afternoon after Dangote Cement Plc suffered a pullback. The NSE All-Share Index thereby tested another support level at 34,634.30 but couldn’t get through, before rolling over in the last hour to close down at 35,311.36 on a low volume traded.

Regardless of the prolonged down market, some stocks have remained fundamentally okay. Identifying when to buy is however what technical analysis will do for you, that is why you should go for Investdata Consulting’s July 28, 2018 Stock Trading Workshop HOME STUDY PACK. These are audio-visual materials you can play to view the live class on your phone and laptop to help you know when to jump into the market and specific stocks, or stay out. For your Study Pack, call or send ‘YES’ to the phone numbers below.

Market technicals on Monday were weak and mixed, despite the positive sentiments in the midst of relatively low volume traded and positive market breadth as confirmed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a ‘buy’ position of 78% and ‘sell’ volume at 22%. Volume index was 0.70 of the day’s total transactions.
The energy behind the day’s market performance was weak, as reflected in the money flow index at 31.95bps, despite inching up from previous day’s 30.97 points, indicating that funds entered few stocks in the midst of the prevailing low market liquidity.

Index and Market Cap
The All-Share index lost 114.81bps, closing at 35,311.36 basis points, having opened at 35,426.26bps, representing a 0.32% decline, just as market capitalisation shed N56bn, closing at N12.8tr, from N12.84tr, representing a 0.32% decline.

If you haven’t joined Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup, where you can look over our shoulder and follow to know when to hold cash and take advantage of the watchlist of stocks for different investment purposes that you may position in, as the market decline create new opportunity. To register and become a member send Yes or stocks to the phones numbers below. The number of stocks on our watch list has increased due to the prolonged correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.

Monday’s downturn was attributed to losses suffered by Dangote Cement, Dangote Flour, UACN, and Unilever, which impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date return now at 7.67%. Market capitalization within the period dropped to N698.24bn, or 4.98%.

Bull Sector Performance
Sectorial performance for the day was largely bullish, except for the NSE Industrial goods that closed down by 0.40%, while the NSE Insurance and Banking indices reduced the effects of the loses, chalking 0.99% and 0.98% respectively. Market breadth was positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 26:14 to halt the two previous days of bull market.
Market activities were down in volume and value by 66.72% and 55.36% respectively to 178.81m shares worth N2.02bn, from the previous day’s 527.74m units valued at N4.53bn.

Transactions for the day were boosted by trading in financial service and aviation stocks that witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart, like: Nahco, Access Bank, Diamond Bank, UBA and Zenith Bank,
Niger Insurance and Diamond Bank were the best stocks as they topped the advancers’ table, after gaining 10% each, closing at N0.44 and N1.21 respectively, purely on market sentiments. On the flip side, First Aluminum and Ikeja Hotel were the worst, losing 10% and 9.68% respectively to close at N0.36 and N2.52 apiece, due to profit taking and market trend.

Market Outlook
We expect the market to oscillate as bargain hunters take advantage of the low-price regime, as political party primaries kicks off. The ongoing anxiety in Nigeria’s political environment by party leaders and politicians continues to heat up the system and scare investors away, while the world keenly watches Nigeria’s political space amidst interesting development in the jostle for political relevance in the day’s leading to the all-important 2019 general elections.

Meanwhile, investors continue to interpret the recent Q2 earnings reports so as to rebalance their portfolios and watch the political space, while analysing the actual numbers released so far as a basis for determining the market and economy’s direction going forward. More disappointing reports will drive the market further down, or inspire a reversal if the numbers beat expectation.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season were Q2 interim dividend payment are expected in the market arena very soon.

We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamental.

Amrose Omordion
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/ngse-indicators-return-to-red-as-nigerias-q2-gdp-data-confirms-economic-slowdown/

4 Methods of Avoiding Investment Bias

We all have read about confirmation bias–the tendency to look for information that confirms a pre-existing belief–and how that bias leads us to make bad investment decisions, such as holding a stock for too long or selling it too soon. And in spite of your expertise and good judgment, we all can succumb to this bias when it comes to investing.

I have come up with four steps to make sure that you don’t succumb when investing.

*Examine all evidence with equal rigor* If you have been sitting on cash during the stock market’s run this year or have been conservative with your investments choices, you may be feeling that you’ve missed out on big returns. And this could lead you to jump into some investments simply because you believe that the market highs will continue (and they have, after all), not because they are the right choice for your portfolio

*Get someone to play devil’s advocate* It has happened to the best of us, no matter our education or background in investing. You are having a conversation in the kitchen at work when you hear someone say, “I just made 100% profit buying ABC stock, and this thing is just taking off.” if you hear a tip from a person you trust and like, chances are you will become convinced that it is, of course, a good idea.

*Be honest with yourself about your motives*. Have you ever heard the saying, “If you can see Fayemi through Fayemi's eyes, you can sell Fayemi what Fayemi buys?” I think it applies to the way I’ve looked at investments in the past–and the motives behind my decisions.

*Don’t ask leading questions.* One of the biggest mistakes you can make as an investor is to ask questions that set you up to get the answer you want–not the answer you need.

Happy Trading,
Ambrose Omordion
http://investdataltd..com/2018/08/4-methods-of-avoiding-investment-bias.html

PS: All the above cannot be done in isolation, it is only through knowledge acquisition.

At 1.5%, Nigeria’s 2018Q2 GDP Grows Slower, Hits N16.58tr

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday morning published Nigeria’s much awaited Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2018, showing a 0.45% slower growth than the 1.95% recorded in Q1.
Specifically, the NBS said Nigeria’s economy grew by 1.5% (year-on-year) in real terms to N16.58tr, which was 0.72% higher than that of the corresponding period of 2017, just as real GDP growth was 2.94% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

This followed the 3.95% negative growth Year-on-Year in the nation’s oil sector, while the non-oil sector climbed 2.05% in real terms. This represented 1.60% increase compared to the rate recorded for the same quarter in 2017, and 1.29% points over the first quarter of 2018.
In broad terms, the NBS explained that “growth in Q2 2018 was driven by developments in the non-oil sector as Services sector recorded its strongest positive growth since 2016. However, the relatively slower growth when compared to Q1 2018 and Q2 2017 could be attributed to developments in both the oil and non-oil sectors.”

The nation’s economic growth was less than the flat 2% growth envisaged by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, even as aggregate GDP stood at N30.69tr in nominal terms. This represented a 7.85% increase when compared to N28.46tr of the preceding quarter and 13.57% rise, when compared to the N27.03tr in the 2017 corresponding quarter.
Average daily oil production for the period fell to 1.84m barrels per day, 8% lower than the 2mbpd average recorded in 2018Q1. Nigeria’s oil production level has so far not matched the 2.05mbpd achieved in 2016Q1, after which it had fallen to 1.61mbpd in the third quarter of that year. Oil production also represented a 1.6% drop from the 1.87 recorded in 2017Q2.
Real growth of Nigeria’s oil sector was –3.95% YoY in Q2 2018, “indicating a decrease by –7.48% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017. Growth also decreased by –18.72% points when compared to Q1 2018. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –8.34% in Q2 2018.

“The Oil sector contributed 8.55% to total real GDP in Q2 2018, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.04% and 9.61% respectively,” all of which occurred at the same time as crude oil price (Brent) maintained steady rise from $65.32 per barrel in January, reaching $76.98 in May, before falling slightly to $74.4 per barrel in June. The non-oil economy, NBS continued, was mainly driven by Information and communication services,

Construction, Agriculture, Transportation and Storage and Other Services.
“In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.45% to the nation’s GDP, compared to 90.96% recorded in Q2 2017 and 90.39% recorded in the preceding quarter.”
While services contributed 53.97% for the period; industries accounted for 23.18%; followed by agriculture with 22.86%, which was less than 22.93% in 2017Q2, but better than 21.65% in 2018Q1.
The agric sector crawled by just 1.19%, representing 1.82% decline from 3% in the prior quarter and 4.23% in the 2017Q4.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/at-1-5-nigerias-2018q2-gdp-grows-slower-hits-n16-58tr/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Reports

NSEASI buy � volume index 1.31 MFI 40.91
Access buy � MFI 42.52
Afrprud buy � volume index 2.44 MFI 55.60
Air service buy � volume index 2.70 MFI 40.36
Caverton buy � volume index 2.24 MFI 30.09
Dangote sugar buy 100 MFI 27.51
Diamond buy � volume index 1.04 MFI 63.54
Eterna buy 0% MFI 68.83
ETI buy � MFI 85.14
Fbnh buy � MFI 49.17
Fcmb buy � MFI 34.28
Fidelity buy � MFI 51.53
Fmn buy 80% sell 20% volume index 2.83 MFI 65.49
FO buy � volume index 0.93 MFI 43.08
GT buy � MFI 21.82
Hony flour buy � volume index 1.20 MFI 38.80
Japaul buy � volume index 1.05 MFI 56.53
Lasaco buy � MFI 20.44
M&B buy � volume index 16.34 MFI 81.50
Mben buy � volume index 1.08 MFI 25.85
Oando buy 33% sell 67% volume index 0.79 MFI 60.84
Regalins buy 0% MFI 21.46
Royalex buy 0% volume index 2.47 MFI 53.19
Skye buy 0% volume index 1.53 MFI 55.65
Sovereins buy � MFI 55.19
Sterling buy 67% sell 33% MFI 60.91
Total buy � volume index 11.09 MFI 81.17
Transcorp buy � volume index 1.11 MFI 61.65
Uba buy 60% sell 40% MFI 13.38
Ubn buy � volume index 2.18 MFI 38.44
Ucap buy � MFI 77.63
Unilever buy � volume index 2.26 MFI 36.11
Uniondac buy � MFI 57.84
Wapco buy � volume index 0.98 MFI 70.47
Wema buy 0% MFI 5.45
Zenith buy 50% sell 50% MFI 20.69

http://investdataltd..com/2018/08/investdata-daily-sentiment-reports_29.html

Investors Take Position Ahead Of Month-end Window Dressing

Market Update for August 28, 2018

Nigeria’s equity market on Tuesday resisted a further downward pull on improved sentiment, reversing previous day’s decline as bargain hunters took advantage of the prevailing low prices to re-position ahead of month-end’s window dressing and trading account balance by fund managers. This was especially true of banking stocks that had experienced selloffs by smart money, which made their shares prices attractive, considering their fundamentals. Added to this is the fact that a few are expected to pay interim dividend, even as investors look forward to half year earnings reports by these banks to hit the market any moment from now.

As at close of trading on Tuesday, the market seems to have set a recovery momentum to build on, but with the dwindling economy and political risks arising from the 2019 poll, which had triggered cautious trading due to seven months of decline. Investors should still watch to confirm this rebound before gradually taking position, because the economy is still dragging, as revealed by the 2018Q2 GDP report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Back to NSE, the attractive low valuation of banking stocks in the market, plus the fact that they could finally earn some income from their huge sterile funds kept with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in form of Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR). This is because the CBN plans to extend the funds to operators in economic growth stimulating and job creating companies, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing (READ MORE).
The attraction to banking stocks resulted in a breakaway gap to the upside in the morning, which consolidated for a few minutes and then another rally took the index to intraday highs of 35,516.20 basis points, from low of 35,309.90bps for the day by midday to afternoon to close positively on a high traded volume.

Regardless of the prolonged down market, some stocks have remained fundamentally okay. Identifying when to buy is however what technical analysis will do for you, that is why you should go for Investdata Consulting’s July 28, 2018 Stock Trading Workshop HOME STUDY PACK. These are audio-visual materials you can play to view the live class on your phone and laptop to help you know when to jump into the market and specific stocks, or stay out. For your Study Pack, call or send ‘YES’ to the phone numbers below.
Tuesday’s market technicals were positive and strong, with high positive sentiments, high volume traded and positive market breadth as confirmed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a ‘buy’ position of 100% and ‘sell’ volume at 0%. Volume index was 1.31of the day’s total transactions.
The momentum behind the day’s market performance was however weak, despite the huge improvement, as reflected in the money flow index at 40.95bps, up from previous day’s 31.95points, indicating that funds entered some stocks in the midst of the prevailing low market liquidity.

Index and Market Cap
The benchmark index notched 204.85bps, closing at 35,516.21 basis points, after opened at 35,311.36bps, representing a 0.57% growth, just as market capitalisation was up N72.64bn, closing at N12.97tr, from N12.88tr, representing a 0.57% value gain.
If you haven’t joined Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup, where you can look over our shoulder and follow to know when to hold cash and take advantage of the watchlist of stocks for different investment purposes that you may position in, as the market decline create new opportunity. To register and become a member send Yes or stocks to the phones numbers below. The number of stocks on our watch list has increased due to the prolonged correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.
Upturn was as a result of price appreciation in low, medium and high cap stocks that impacted positively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date return now at 7.09%. Market capitalization within the period dropped to N623.12 billion, or 4.69%.

Bull Sector Performance
Sectorial performance for the day was largely bullish, except for the NSE Insurance that closed down by 0.16%, while the NSE Banking and Oil/Gas indices topped the table with 1.67% and 0.67% respectively. Market breadth was positive as advancers outpaced decliners in the ratio of 33:16 to halt the previous days down market.

Volume and value witnessed an increase by 89.97% and 17234% respectively to 339.68m shares worth N5.5bn, from the previous day’s 178.81m units valued at N2.02bn.
Transactions for the day were boosted by trading in financial service, healthcare and conglomerates stocks that witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart, like: Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Stanbic IBTC, May/Baker, Transcorp and UBA.
Portland Paints and Jaizz Bank were the best stocks as they topped the advancers’ table, after gaining 9.72% and 9.62% respectively to close at N2.71 and N0.57, purely on market sentiments and low-price attraction. On the flip side, Ikeja Hotel and Law Union Insurance were the worst, losing 9.92% and 9.88% respectively to close at N2.27 and N0.73 on profit taking and market forces.



Market Outlook
We expect the market to remain volatile as bargain hunters take advantage of the low-price regime, despite the political activities.
Meanwhile, investors continue to interpret the recent Q2 earnings reports so as to rebalance their portfolios and watch the political space, while analysing the actual numbers released so far as a basis for determining the market and economy’s direction going forward. More disappointing reports will drive the market further down, or inspire a reversal if the numbers beat expectation.
Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value, especially during this season were Q2 interim dividend payment are expected in the market arena very soon.
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst improving company, economic and market fundamental.

Attention
The difference between you and others who are not aware of what I am sharing with you is ACTION.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/investors-take-position-ahead-of-month-end-window-dressing/

CASH AND NEW

On a stock exchange, this is a method of postponing payment on a bargain until the next settlement day, the investor begins with a bargain for which he or she would like to postpone payment, towards the end of the account, a deal is made that is opposite to the first, meaning, the investor either buys or sells a similar instrument, the original position is then restored by yet another purchase, to be settled on the next settlement day, in effect, the investor negates the original position and then returns to it in the next account.

Investdata Academy
http://investdataltd..com/2018/08/cash-and-new.html

CBN Writes MTN To Refund $8.13bn Repatriated Via Forged Papers

• Fines StanChart, Stanbic IBTC, Citi, Diamond Banks N5.87bn

Even before paying the fines for its last infraction (sale of pre-registered sim cards in the country), telecommunications giant, MTN Nigeria, is in yet another troubled waters (READ).

This time, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which at the midweek said it has written the subsidiary of the South African giant to refund a total of $8,134,312,397.63 repatriated using ‘fake’ Certificates of Capital Importation (CCIs) between 2007 and 2015.
The company, which continues to delay the listing of its local arm on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) (READ MORE), being a condition for relaxing the previous fine, is accused of ‘flagrant violation of extant laws and regulations of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”
Specifically, MTN Nigeria is accused of violating “the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, 1995 of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Foreign Exchange Manual, 2006.”

The CBN also imposed fines totaling N5.68bn fine on: Standard Chartered Bank, Stanbic-IBTC, Citibank, and Diamond Bank, whose managements were, along with that of MTN directed “to immediately refund the sum of $8,134,312,397.63, illegally repatriated by the company to the coffers of the (CBN).”

A statement by the CBN on Wednesday, August 29, 2018, quoted its Director, Corporate Communications, Isaac Okorafor, as saying the regulatory sanctions became necessary, following “allegations of remittance of foreign exchange with irregular Certificates of Capital Importation (CCIs) issued on behalf of some offshore investors of MTN Nigeria Communications Limited and subsequent investigations carried out by the apex bank in March 2018.”

A breakdown of the fines by the CBN showed that while a fine of N2,470,604,767.13 was slammed on Standard Chartered Bank; Stanbic IBTC Nigeria is to pay N1,885,852,847.45. On its part, Citibank Nigeria was directed to N1,265,541,562.31 penalty, and Diamond Bank, N250m for violating extant rules.
Investigations by the CBN into allegations of remittances by the four banks of forex with irregular certificates of Capital Importation (CCIs) issued on behalf of some offshore investors of MTN Nigeria, showed that a total of $3,448,119,321.72 was repatriated by Standard Chartered Bank on the basis of the illegally issued CCIs.

Another $2,632,005,623.78, $1,766,263,212.75 and $348,914,501.30 were repatriated by Stanbic IBTC Nigeria, Citibank Nigeria and Diamond Bank Plc, respectively during the period 2007 and 2015. Accordingly, he said the CBN had directed the affected banks to immediately refund the respective sums to the CBN.

The CBN investigation further revealed that on account of illegal conversion of MTN shareholders’ loan to preference shares (interest free loan) of $399,594,146.00, the sum of $8,134,312,397.63 was illegally repatriated by the company.

While disclosing that the investigations by the CBN took a while in order to carry out thorough inquiry and give fair hearing to all parties involved, Okorafor advised all banks and multinational companies in Nigeria to adhere strictly to the provisions of all extant laws and regulations of Nigeria in their foreign exchange transactions. He warned that failure by the management of banks and companies to abide by the existing guidelines would be appropriately sanctioned, which sanctions may include denial of access to the Nigerian foreign exchange market.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/cbn-writes-mtn-to-refund-8-13bn-repatriated-via-forged-ccis/

Access Bank Reports Flat 2017Q2 Profit, On FX Loss, Loan Provision

After weeks of anxiety, the board of Access Bank Plc, on Wednesday published its audited result for the half-year ended June 30, 2018, showing that flat growth in earnings and profit, even as a negative N4.189bn “other comprehensive income,” up from the previous N6.017bn, left “total comprehensive income for the period” at N35.435bn, down by N10.041bn or 22.08% from N45.477bn in the corresponding period of 2017.
This followed a N33.779bn net foreign exchange loss, as against previous half-year’s N59.022bn income, even as net loan impairment charge dropped from N10.362bn to N7.34bn. The situation was saved significantly also by the N59.564bn net gains on investment securities, as against the previous N3.645bn loss.

The profit slide notwithstanding, the directors elected to retain the dividend of 25 kobo per share, from earnings of N1.38 each, even as ratio of total impaired loans and advances to gross risk assets stood at 4.73%, slightly better than the previous 4.76%.
Specifically, gross earnings for the half-year stood at N2…, representing a N6.448bn or 2.62% notched above the … reported in the preceding period; with interest income at N186.686bn, up by 15.3% from N161.905bn; and interest expense jumping by a higher N22.526bn or 28.56%. This left a net interest income of N85.296bn, from N83.041bn; just as the net interest income after impairment charges climbed to N77.956bn from N72.676bn.
Fee and commission income for the period was better at N30.284bn than the preceding half-year’s N25.076bn; even as fee and commission income slowed down to N217.896m from N250.51m; resulting in net fee and commission income of N30.066bn from N24.826bn.

Net operating income soared to n10.267bn from N4.216bn; personnel expenses dropped slightly from N27.743bn to N26.085bn; even as rent expenses at N2.225bn was higher than the N1.665bn in 2017. Along with the other operating expenses of N61.884bn, down from N69.136bn, profit before tax for the period stood at N45.842bn, a N6.206bn, or 11.92% decline from N52.048bn recorded in the first half of 2017. Income tax however dropped by N6.371bn or 50.61% for the period under review, from N12.588bn, which analysts believe could be postponing the evil day, since the true picture would show up in the December full-year score-card. The tax reduction ensured a flat net profit at N39.625bn from N39.459bn.

Other comprehensive loss (net of related tax effects) stood at N4.189bn, compared to a N6.017bn gain, left total comprehensive income for the period at N35.435bn, which was N10.04bn or 22.08% down from the previous N45.477bn.
The group presented a slightly better balance sheet, with assets of N4.46tr, compared to N4.092tr; boosted by the N1.905tr customer loans and advance, which however dropped marginally from N1.995tr; followed by the N1.14tr cash and balances with banks; up from N953.944bn.

The auditors, Messrs PwC however called attention to the impairment on customer loans and advances to the tune of N104.3bn (notes 3.9, 4 and 23), arising from “materiality of the loans and advances balance net of impairment (N1.9tr)…”
Total liabilities for the period stood at N3.911tr from N3.586tr, lifted by the customer deposits which improved by N164.1bn or 7.31% from N2.244tr to N2.408tr. Shareholders’ funds however declined to N460.188bn from N508.539bn.

A breakdown of its loan book shows that oil and gas remain its biggest play field, accounting for N525.567bn, of which the oil services accounts for N234.541bn; followed by upstream sub-sector with N149.094bn; while government got N254.796bn, slightly up from N252.844bn.
The 25 kobo dividend will be paid to those whose names appear in the register of members at the close of business on September 6, 2018, which is the qualification date, while the register closes on Friday, September 7, 2018. Dividend payment will be made electronically to shareholders on Friday, September 21, 2018.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/access-bank-reports-flat-2017q2-profit-on-fx-loss-loan-provision/

Applications For Elumelu Foundation Cohort Rises By 650%, Forum Holds Oct. 25

Africapitalism promoter and chairman, Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF), on Tuesday urged more of the continent’s successful entrepreneurs to partner in the task of mentoring and raising the next generation of African success stories.

A statement by the leading entrepreneurship-focused philanthropic organisation, announcing the foundation’s 4th Annual Entrepreneurship Forum scheduled for October 25, 2018, in Lagos, noted that this has become expedient against the backdrop of the number of interests expressed in its yearly cohort.
According to Elumelu, who is also chairman of the United Bank for Africa Plc and Transnational Corporation of Nigeria (Transcorp), “we will be championing and celebrating them. This year, we are truly achieving scale and impact; we received over 150,000 applications in 2017 alone, up from 20,000 applications in 2015 (650%).

“We are now calling on the current generation of African success stories and others to partner with us to see how we can all further create impact, genuinely transform millions of lives and increase the number of inspiring stories we will be hearing in Lagos”.
Elumelu also expressed satisfaction that in just four year, TEF has “directly impacted 4,460 entrepreneurs, and we are beginning to see the results – job creation, ripple effects, but most importantly a recognition that Africa’s economic well-being is driven by entrepreneurs: female and male, large and small – they are the engine of our continent’s transformation.
The event, the statement continued, will unite over 5,000 entrepreneurs, global investors, leaders from the African public and private sectors and developmental organisations.

The 2018 cohort, a unique opportunity to generate ideas, forge networks and bring policymakers and the private sector together, in a spirit of robust debate and interaction, the statement added, will bring mentors face-to-face with partners, culminating intensive 12-week induction programme.
In line with the Foundation’s tradition, the Forum will include an interactive session with President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya and President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana, moderated by the TEF Founder.

The Forum will also feature the launch of the TEFConnect, the world’s largest digital platform for African entrepreneurs, dedicated to connecting African entrepreneurs and the entrepreneurship ecosystem.
Also, Chief Executive of TEF, Parminder Vir assured that “the TEF Entrepreneurship Forum is the only event across the continent that brings together the complete African entrepreneurship ecosystem, demonstrating our commitment to capturing the whole continuum – from the entrepreneurs themselves, governments who must provide enabling environments, to capital, advice and perhaps most importantly access and network”.
Inspired by Tony Elumelu’s economic philosophy of Africapitalism and his vision to institutionalise luck and democratise opportunity for a new generation of African entrepreneurs, the Tony Elumelu Foundation has implemented one of the most ambitious entrepreneurship programmes globally.

The Programme is a 10-year, $100 million commitment to identify, train, mentor, and fund 10,000 entrepreneurs. Its goal is to invest in businesses that will generate at least 1,000,000 new jobs and contribute at least $10 billion in new annual revenues across Africa. In its 4th year, TEF Entrepreneurship Programme has empowered 4,460 entrepreneurs with a total investment of USD20m; 4,000 funded directly by the Foundation and 460 have been funded by partners.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/applications-for-elumelu-foundation-cohort-rises-by-650-forum-holds-oct-25/

Investdata Daily Sentiment Reports

NSEASI buy 32% sell 68% volume index 1.08 MFI 37.93
Access buy 56% sell 44% volume index 3.22
Custodian buy 0% volume index 2.04 MFI 83.44
Dangote Cement buy � MFI 72.68
Dangote flour buy 0% MFI 23.28
Dangote sugar buy 87% sell 13% volume index 1.75 MFI 27.31
Diamond buy 0% volume index 2.69 MFI 46.07
ETI buy � volume index 0.78 MFI 87.71
Fbnh buy � volume index 0.70 MFI 44.48
Fcmb buy 0% volume index 2.97 MFI 8.17
Fidelity buy 67% sell 33% MFI 45.07
FO buy 0% volume index 1.44 MFI 39.58
Nem buy � volume index 3.93
MFI 45.61
Oando buy � MFI 66.18
Skye buy � volume index 1.41 MFI 52.85
Stanbic buy � MFI 75.82
Transcorp buy � MFI 62.84
Uba buy 57% sell 43% volume index 1.70 MFI 12.73
Wapco buy 19% sell 81% MFI 68.69
Zenith buy 0% MFI 20.06

http://investdataltd..com/2018/08/investdata-daily-sentiment-reports_31.html

ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

This is a money management approach based on informed, independent investment judgement, as opposed to passive management which seeks to match the performance of the overall market by mirroring its composition or by being broadly diversified or the buying and selling of a bond as opposed to holding them to maturity.

Investdata Academy
https://investdataltd..com/2018/08/active-management.html?m=1

Investdata Monthly Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 25% sell 75% volume index 0.74 MFI 60.77
Access buy 52% sell 48% MFI 34.81
Afrprud buy 65% sell 35% MFI 79.17
Aiico buy � volume index 0.80 MFI 36.20
Air service buy � MFI 69.23
Berger buy 3% sell 97% volume index 0.88 MFI 88.54
Betaglas buy 0% volume index 7.31 MFI 88.52
Cadbury buy 46% sell 54% MFI 48.02
Cap buy 0% MFI 32.60
Caverton buy 61% sell 39% volume index 0.74 MFI 50.14
CCNN buy 37% sell 63% MFI 82.32
CIleasing buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.31 MFI 78.65
Custodian buy 9% sell 91%
Cutix buy 0% volume index 1.49 MFI 85.35
Dangote Cement buy 65% sell 35% volume index 1.65 MFI 66.80
Dangote flour buy 47% sell 53% MFI 72.85
Dangote sugar buy 56% sell 44% MFI 74.39
Diamond buy 47% sell 53% MFI 58.99
Eterna buy 37% sell 63% volume index 1.29 MFI 68.43
ETI buy 37% sell 63% volume index 1.03 MFI 74.82
Fbnh buy 0% MFI 65.24
Fcmb buy 33% sell 67% MFI 39.87
Fidelity buy 30% sell 70% MFI 58.87
Fmn buy 46% sell 54% volume index 0.90 MFI 64.76
FO buy 0% volume index 1.49 MFI 45.82
GT buy 0% MFI 41.20
Hmarkins buy 50% sell 50% volume index 9.57 MFI 55.48
Hony flour buy 16% sell 84% volume index 0.74 MFI 53.39
Japaul buy 25% sell 75% volume index 1.90 MFI 56.64
Lasaco buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.81 MFI 33.18
Lawuni buy 0% volume index 1.47 MFI 79.59
Learn buy 0% MFI 68.28
Linkass buy 68% sell 32% MFI 81.24
Lvstk buy 33% sell 67% MFI 49.66
Mansard buy 0% volume index 4.56 MFI 15.42
M&B buy 63% sell 37% volume index 4.46 MFI 38.00
Mben buy 14% sell 86% volume index 1.83 MFI 24.08
Mobil buy � MFI 76.15
Nahco buy 31% sell 69% volume index 8.51
Nascon buy 33% sell 67% MFI 79.01
Nem buy 92% sell 8% volume index 5.95 MFI 90.07
Nestle buy 20% sell 80% MFI 72.64
Nigerins buy � volume index 1.99 MFI 53.04
Oando buy 56% sell 44% MFI 40.76
Okomu buy 59% sell 41% MFI 78.68
Presco buy � MFI 75.46
PZ buy � MFI 47.69
Red buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.30 MFI 81.39
Regalins buy 40% sell 60% volume index 6.28
Seplat buy 0% MFI 60.32
Skye buy 50% sell 50% MFI 43.42
Sovereins buy 25% sell 75% MFI 52.63
Stanbic buy 30% sell 70% volume index 1.43 MFI 23.90
Sterling buy 54% sell 46% MFI 77.60
Total buy 70% sell 30% volume index 0.81 MFI 17.98
Transcorp buy 81% sell 19% MFI 76.65
Uacn Property buy 6% sell 94% MFI 59.18
Uacn buy 10% sell 90% MFI 39.76
Uba buy 5% sell 95% volume index 1.56 MFI 43.86
Ubn buy 89% sell 11% MFI 52.83
Ucap buy 65% sell 35% MFI 51.41
Unilever buy 0% volume index 0.87 MFI 71.72
Uniondac buy 6% sell 94% volume index 12.24 MFI 69.67
Unity buy 5% sell 95% MFI 73.57
Upl buy 0% volume index 1.13 MFI 43.35
Vitafoam buy 10% sell 90% MFI 62.86
Wapco buy 0% volume index 0.93 MFI 39.93
Wapic buy 38% sell 62% MFI 71.90
Wema buy 8% sell 92% MFI 70.17
Zenith buy 16% sell 84% volume index 0.75 MFI 35.18

https://investdataltd..com/2018/09/investdata-monthly-sentiment-report.html?m=1

UBA Appoints Ex-Ekiti First lady, Three Others As Board Members

United Bank for Africa Plc, on Friday announced the appointment of Erelu Angela Adebayo, former first lady of Ekiti State, among four new Non-Executive Directors, subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The new directors, including Ms. Angela Aneke, Alhaji Abdulqadir Jeli Bello and Isaac Olukayode Fasola, will replace Mrs. Rose Okwechime, founder and chief executive of Abbey Building Society Plc; Adekunle Olumide, Alhaji Ja’afaru Paki and Yahaya Zekeri, who retired with effect from August 30, 2018.

A statement by the group said Erelu Adebayo, Chairman, Erelu Adebayo Foundation for the under-privileged, graduated with an M.Phil in Land Economy from Cambridge University and is a council member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). With extensively work experience in real estate development, she previously served on the boards of organisations like Dangote Foundation, DN Meyer Plc, Wemabod Estates.
Ms. Aneke is a board advisor, banker and a strategic thinker with over 30 years’ experience in financial services, in the areas of financial control, strategy, transaction banking, corporate banking, retail banking and governance. She has held executive management and board positions in several international and regional institutions, including Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and the UBA Plc.

On his part, Fasola, who is pursuing a Ph.D. in Business Administration, the statement added, brings on board over 30 years of cognate experience in management and board positions spanning banking operations, risk management, credit analysis, insurance, asset management, business strategy/development, performance management and corporate governance. He holds two MBAs and previously served as an Executive Director of a commercial Bank in Nigeria.

Bello, a Chartered Accountant, has over 30 years’ corporate experience in the banking sector, during the period he held several senior management positions in various banks and previously served as Group Chief Credit Officer of UBA. Thereafter, he was Executive Director in charge of Risk Management for the group.
Commenting on the new board appointments, the chairman, Tony Elumelu welcomed the quartet, who he said “bring a wealth of experience in their fields and will be tremendous assets, as we deliver on our mission to become the leading Pan-African financial institution in all our countries of operation.

“I am particularly pleased that two of the newly appointed Non-Executive Directors are women, bringing the total number of women to four, a further demonstration of our commitment to ensuring equality for both men and women,” he added
Also, Elumelu expressed appreciation to the “retiring Directors for their leadership and dedication to UBA and for their contribution to an already impressive 2018. I wish them the very best in their future endeavours”.

The group, on Wednesday published its audited financials for the half-year ended June 30, 2018, with profit before tax of N58.1bn, from its operations across 20 African countries, which followed its recent acquisition of a licence in Mali and the United Kingdom. The bank also has offices in New York City and in Paris.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/08/uba-appoints-ex-ekiti-first-lady-three-others-as-board-members/

Investdata Daily Sentiment Reports

NSEASI buy 7% sell 93% MFI 42.55
Access buy 25% sell 75% MFI 25.39
Aiico buy 40% sell 60% volume index 0.84 MFI 61.21
Dangote sugar buy � MFI 47.34
Diamond buy 0% MFI 22.74
Fbnh buy 80% sell 20% volume index 0.86 MFI 39.36
Fcmb buy � MFI 44.03
Fidelity buy 0% volume index 0.94 MFI 63.16
Fidson buy � volume index 7.22 MFI 85.54
FO buy � volume index 0.83 MFI 24.44
Jaiz buy 0% volume index 4.53 MFI 51.10
Japaul buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 49.89
Mben buy � volume index 1.31 MFI 13.16
Nem buy � MFI 48.13
Oando buy � MFI 76.87
Skye buy � volume index 2.16 MFI 52.21
Sovereins buy � volume index 2.84 MFI 66.91
Transcorp buy 0% volume index 0.81 MFI 76.70
Uba buy 0% MFI 13.00
Wapic buy 0% MFI 44.50
Zenith buy 33% sell 67% MFI 26.95

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/investdata-daily-sentiment-reports_7.html

THIN MARKET

A thin market is a market with a low number of buyers and sellers or it is a stock market situation where there are few bids to buy and few offers to sell.
Prices tend to be more volatile as assets tend to be less liquid in a thin market since there are small number of buyers and sellers thus resulting in a low transaction volume.

Thin securities market is characterized by few bids to buy and few offers to sell, low level of liquidity, wide spread in bid and asked prices and highly volatile price. Thin market may apply to a single security or to the entire stock market.

Significance of a thin market is that its participants need to have the financial resources to effectively absorb sudden price shocks associated with high volatility, which means that the associated risk may work in the favour of its participants and ultimately result in sudden gains.

Investdata Academy

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/thin-market.html

Investors Focus On Q3 Financials, Amidst Volatility, Bargain Hunting In Penny Stocks

Market Update for September 6, 2018
It was yet another ugly trading session in Nigeria’s equity market on Thursday, closing lower on a continued downtrend movement that has spanned over eight months, with the benchmark All-Share index making lower lows on investors’ weak sentiments.
The prolonged downturn has made the NSE rank among the worst performing markets in Africa and even globally, after achieving over 45% gain that helped it emerge best performing exchange in the world in 2017. This growth trajectory extended into January 2018, suspending the usual January effect with a huge gain of over 17% in one month, the first of its kind in the last 15 year.

These were on the strength of positive macro-economic indices, stronger corporate earnings, rising oil price and consumer confidence that attracted inflow of capital. But, as the year progressed, factors against the market started unfolding especially after the fiscal authorities seemingly went to sleep in Q1, failing therefore to induce some form of stimulus or reforms to sustain the growth tempo. Instead, government spent all of the time celebrating the nation’s emergence from economic recession, without giving a direction, a situation that ultimately reflected in the nation’s Q2 2018 GDP which declined to 1.5% from 1.99%.

This was also happening at a time of rate hike in developed economies and markets, a situation that triggered early selloffs and profit booking, heightened by political risks and economic slowdown, coupled with the delayed passage and assent of the 2018 budget. Even so, budget implementation and style of funds disbursement are conspiring to making Nigerians not to feel the impact of the N9.1tr budget. Feelers are that most of the capital projects approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) are not cash-backed, contrary the impression given to the citizenry. This may have accounted for the poor level of economic activities and seeming illiquidity in the country.

The NSE opened down, moving lower, before making lower-lows, after which it rallied marginally by the afternoon from intraday lows of 34,087.26 basis points to touch a high of 34,438.13bps before pulling back to close the day red at 34,110.22bps on a low traded volume.

Despite the prolonged ‘sell’ market, some stocks have remained fundamentally attractive. Identifying when to buy is however what technical analysis will do for you, that is why you should go for Investdata Consulting’s July 28, 2018 Stock Trading Workshop HOME STUDY PACK. These are audio-visual materials you can play to view the live class on your phone and laptop to help you know when to jump into the market and specific stocks, or stay out. For your Study Pack, call or send ‘YES’ to the phone numbers below.

Thursday’s market technicals were negative with high sell sentiments, low volume traded and negative market breadth as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a ‘sell’ volume of 93% and ‘buy’ position at 3%. Volume index was 0.68 of the day’s total transactions.
The energy behind the day’s market performance was however weak, despite the slight improvement, as reflected in the money flow index at 42,55bps, up from previous day’s 41.99points, indicating that funds entered some stocks in the midst of the prevailing low market liquidity.

Index and Market Cap
The All Share index set for danger zone as it lost 304.15bps, closing at 34,110.22 basis points, after opening at 34,414.37bps, representing a 0.88% decline, just as market capitalisation lost N101.14bn, closing at N12.45tr, from N12.56tr, representing a 0.88% value loss, thereby deepening investors red position.
If you haven’t joined Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup, where you can look over our shoulder and follow to know when to hold cash and take advantage of the watchlist of stocks for different investment purposes that you may position in, as the market decline create new opportunity. To register and become a member send Yes or stocks to the phone numbers below. The number of stocks on our watch list has increased due to the prolonged correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.

Thursday’s downturn was due to losses suffered by low, medium and high cap stocks like Guaranty Trust Bank, Unilever, UBA, Zenith Bank and Eterna that impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date return now at 10.89%. Market capitalisation within the period dropped to N1.28tr, or 7.86%.
Bear Sector Performance
Sectorial performance for the day was largely bearish, except for the NSE Industrial Goods and Oil/Gas that closed higher by 0.38% and 0.15% respectively, while the NSE Banking and Conglomerates indexes topped the table with 2.46% and 1.73% respectively. Market breadth was negative as decliners outpaced advancers in the ratio of 31:19 to continue bear transition.
Volume and value were down by 17.84% and 4.17% respectively to 164.5m shares worth N2.07bn, from the previous day’s 200.28m units valued at N2.16bn.
Transactions for the day were boosted by trading in financial service stocks that witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart, like: Guaranty Trust Bank, UBA, Skye Bank, Jaiz Bank and FNBH.
AG Leventis and Fidson Healthcare were the best stocks as they topped the advancers’ table, after gaining 10% and 9.09% respectively to close at N0.44 and N6.00, purely on market sentiments and forces. On the flip side, Wapic Insurance and Eterna were the worst, losing 10% and 9.42% respectively to close at N0.36 and N6.25 on market forces and profit booking.

Market Outlook
We expect the market to remain volatile as bargain hunters take advantage of the low-price regime, in the midst of political risk especially as primaries kicks off and defection continued.
Meanwhile, investors are looking forward to Q3 earnings reports so as to rebalance their portfolios and watch the political space, while analysing the actual numbers released has given basis insight of companies earnings power that are likely to drive prices and determine the market.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.
However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.


Attention
The difference between you and others who are not aware of what I am sharing with you is ACTION.
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/investors-focus-on-q3-financials-amidst-volatility-bargain-hunting-in-penny-stocks/

N5.65bn Fine: CBN Debits Accounts Of Stanbic, Diamond, Others Despite Protest

• We’re Innocent, Stanbic IBTC Tells NSE

Despite protest by the directors of Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank, Stanbic IBTC Bank and Diamond Bank and assurances to investors that they were engaging the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over a N5.65bn fine imposed for alleged “irregular” issuance of Certificates of Capital Importation (CCIs) totally $8.13bn to telecommunications giant, MTN Communications Nigeria Limited, indications emerged on Thursday that the accounts of the four banks have been debited by the apex banks to the tune of the fines.
This followed a letter to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) by the board of Stanbic IBTC Holdings, insisting on the innocence of its banking subsidiary in the matter.

A breakdown of the amount showed that while Standard Chartered was fined N2.4bn; Stanbic IBTC was hammered to the tune of N1.8bn; followed by Citibank’s N1.2bn; and Diamond Bank, N250m.
Godwin Emefiele, Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently insisted that the N5.78bn fine imposed on the four followed over 30 months of investigation into the alleged fraud.

In a letter by Chidi Okezie, its company secretary, to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), which follows an earlier one on August 30, 2018, Stanbic IBTC Holdings noted that the CBN had debited the account of its banking subsidiary for the full amount of the fine.
Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc and its banking subsidiary insisted their earlier position, “which is the fact that the bank has done nothing illegal,” has not change.
Accordingly, the statement said “the bank will continue to provide CBN with documents and details in support of our contention that our actions in relation to these transactions were not illegal.”

Nonetheless, the group assured that the debit does not impact on the capacity of our banking subsidiary to handle clients’ requests or clients’ ability to continue to carry out viable business transactions with either the bank or the Stanbic IBTC Group, whether in relation to the importation of capital or otherwise.

Media reports some days ago quoted Emefiele as saying that once the CBN receives $8.14bn illegally repatriated, the CBN will credit MTN with the Naira equivalent at the exchange rate at which the transactions were consummated,
According to him, “CBN examiners had been investigating three charges of infractions against the four banks and MTN, particularly the manner of funding the equity investment into MTN and the subsequent capital repatriation that resulted thereafter”.

“The investigation was in two parts, the first allegation started about two and a half years ago, when examiners began to investigate;

“The method of payment for shares by local shareholders in MTN International, which is the sole owner of MTN Nigeria.

“Whether the banks breached the extant regulations requiring banks to issue CCIs within 24 hours of receipt of funds inflowed into Nigeria.

“On the first charge regarding investment by local shareholders, the CBN examiners discovered that the local investors, purchased fx from the Nigerian foreign exchange market, repatriated the funds and these funds formed part of the total funds inflowed by MTN totaling $402m between 2001 and 2003. By the extant regulation, only funds inflowed into Nigeria qualify for the issuance of CCI.

“However, examiners observed that the extant FX regulations at the time of investment allowed Nigerians to purchase shares with foreign currency. So, whereas you would say that the investment of the local shareholders should be voided because the funds came from within Nigeria and were round tripped, you can also say that it is allowed because Nigerians were allowed to invest in foreign currency assets. So, we reasoned that since this transaction happened over 10 years ago and the company was doing well, we should grant them a waiver.

On the Second offence regarding the CCIs, the regulation provides that banks must issue CCIs for inflowed funds within 24 hours. The examiners reported that the banks failed to issue some of the CCIs within 24 hours; which is sanctionable. Again the CBN decided to overlook this offence given that these transactions took place over 10 years ago.

It was based on these facts that the CBN wrote the letter dated February 22, 2017 granting MTN the permission to continue paying dividends on the CCIs. So when our Directors were summoned by the Senate to provide the CBN perspective, they told the Senate that the CBN had pardoned the offences and based on this, the Senate towed the same line with the CBN and cleared MTN and the banks of the issues.

“Now the third offence, which is actually the crux of the matter in dispute now relates to the unauthorized conversion of a loan of $399 million to preference shares by the MTN and the banks and thereafter repatriated the sum of $8.1 billion without CBN final approval.

“The facts from the last examination which commenced in March 2018 is that, at the inception of the company, the shareholders inflowed the sum of $402m and reported that $343m was equity and $59m as loan. The examiners later discovered that in its 2007 audited accounts MTN’s auditors reported that the investment of $402m was stated as $2.99m in equity and $399m as loan, a statement that is in conflict with their earlier disclosure and on the basis of which CCIs had long been issued to the company. Soon after, the company, through its bankers approached the CBN for the conversion of the loan of $399m to Preference shares. The CBN thereafter gave an Approval in Principle subject to fulfilling certain conditions. Notwithstanding, the Company and the bank went ahead and concluded the conversion to Preference shares without CBN’s final approval and based on this, repatriated the sum of $8.1bn outside the country,” he stressed.

The CBN felt this was too grievous and that this couldn’t be ignored. When the Committee of Governors was informed about this breach, it sounded unbelievable. In order to give the MTN and the banks a fair hearing, a meeting comprising the CBN Committee of Governors, the over 20 Examiners, the MTN officials and the banks was held on May 25,2018. At this meeting, we gave the company the opportunity to defend itself over the breach but unfortunately, it couldn’t. In fact the bank that concluded the conversion, apologized; stating that it was an unintended error. The COG was alarmed that a bank could ignore CBN’s directive requiring final approval before such a huge transaction could be consummated.

The COG further directed MTN and the banks to meet with the examiners to provide any evidence within one week that could convince the examiners to change their position. Indeed, the deadline for the submission of documents and evidence was extended to over 12 weeks. Despite granting these extensions, the examiners position never changed, as the Company and the banks had no new evidence to provide. Based on this, the examiners concluded their reports and made their recommendations which was subsequently adopted by the COG

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/n5-65bn-fine-cbn-debits-accounts-of-stanbic-diamond-others-despite-protest/

How to Spot Opportunities in a Bear Market

"In battle there are direct rule and indirect methods of attack, yet these two in combination give birth to a series of maneuvers. Have you exhausted the possibilities." Sun Tzu.

In the stock market you must be vigilant for emerging opportunities regardless of the circumstances. With creativity and the ability to to seize the moment, you can gain an edge.

The current bear market contains two elements: Danger and opportunity. and indeed, from my years of experience, every bear market contains within it both possibilities. It is your perspective or let me say response that determines the outcome. This is why Jack Cranfield said E+R=O. That is Event + Response=Outcome.

In other words, Bear Market + Response=Outcome.

The question is what do you do in other to get your desired result:

1. Be on the lookout for new opportunities.

2.Keep your mind open to Alternatives.

3. Pause to look at the bigger opportunities in the stock market: find the opportunity hiding in plain sight.

4.Don't be too focus on one target. For might some opportunities along the way.

Happy Trading,
Ambrose Omordion

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/how-to-spot-opportunities-in-bear-market.html

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 29% sell 71% MFI 31.30
Access buy 11% sell 89% MFI 32.69
Aiico buy 35% sell 65% volume index 2.17 MFI 74.28
Air service buy � volume index 1.55 MFI 55.21
Caverton buy � MFI 51.75
CIleasing buy 82% sell 18% MFI 92.57
Continsure buy � volume index 0.77 MFI 69.22
Custodian buy 96% sell 4% MFI 60.13
Cutix buy � volume index 1.00 MFI 61.94
Dangote Cement buy 65% sell 35% MFI 42.47
Dangote flour buy 0% MFI 42.51
Dangote sugar buy 69% sell 31% MFI 71.02
Diamond buy � MFI 60.72
Eterna buy 0% volume index 1.25 MFI 75.00
ETI buy 0% MFI 35.36
Fbnh buy 36% sell 64% MFI 48.06
Fcmb buy 50% sell 50% MFI 25.78
Fidelity buy 73% sell 27% MFI 57.87
Fidson buy � MFI 19.69
Fmn buy 11% sell 89% MFI 40.32
FO buy 82% sell 18% volume index 1.16 MFI 26.79
Glaxo buy � MFI 14.51
GT buy 20% sell 80% volume index 0.78 MFI 46.62
Hmarkins buy � MFI 90.53
Hony flour buy 0% MFI 41.30
Jaiz buy 88% sell 12% MFI 44.24
Japaul buy � MFI 53.80
Lasaco buy 33% sell 67% MFI 19.76
Law buy 0% MFI 66.45
Learn buy 0% MFI 39.23
Linkass buy 71% sell 29% MFI 41.61
Lvstk buy � MFI 38.77
M&B buy 68% sell 32% MFI 65.53
Mobil buy � volume index 1.58 MFI 34.49
Mben buy 14% sell 86% volume index 0.70 MFI 52.10
Nahco buy � MFI 23.09
Neimeth buy � MFI 29.09
Nem buy 62% sell 38% volume index 1.07 MFI 92.04
Nigerins buy 0% volume index 0.77 MFI 85.36
Oando buy 71% sell 29% MFI 25.70
Okomu buy 96% sell 4% volume index 1.93 MFI 49.02
PZ buy 19% sell 81% MFI 4.95
Red buy � MFI 27.95
Regalins buy � MFI 32.12
Royalex buy � MFI 50.72
Seplat buy 15% sell 85% volume index 1.15 MFI 10.51
Skye buy � volume index 1.07 MFI 48.11
Sovereins buy 67% sell 33% volume index 0.92 MFI 40.61
Stanbic buy 0% volume index 1.43 MFI 18.63
Sterling buy � MFI 34.54
Transcorp buy 27% sell 73% MFI 26.34
Uacn buy 0% MFI 14.28
Uba buy 0% volume index 0.81 MFI 16.49
Ubn buy 0% MFI 34.37
Ucap buy 0% MFI 75.37
Unilever buy 0% MFI 53.81
Uniondac buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.96 MFI 73.46
Verita buy 50% sell 50% MFI 45.77
Wapco buy 0% MFI 47.19
Wapic buy 43% sell 57% volume index 0.87 MFI 83.59
Wema buy 0% MFI 33.98
Zenith buy 17% sell 83% MFI 35.91

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report.html

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For Week Ended Sept 7, 208

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/investdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-week-ended-sept-7-208/

Corporate Actions On NGSE As Of Friday, Sept 7, 2018

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/corporate-actions-on-ngse-as-of-friday-sept-7-2018/

Stanbic IBTC Gets SEC Approval To Surrender Venture Capital Licence

The board of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc, on Friday said it has received a “No Objection” from the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) to voluntarily surrender its venture Capital Management licence of its subsidiary.

In a notice to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) by Chidi Okezie, its company secretary, the group stated that the said subsidiary- Stanbic IBTC Ventures Limited, “does not have any Venture Capital obligations with any of its clients.”

It also assured that the surrender of its licence would not impact negatively on the group as “SIVL will still continue to operate as a going concern.”

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/stanbic-ibttc-gets-sec-approval-to-surrender-venture-capital-licence/

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 4% sell 96% MFI 37.98
Access buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 27.86
Aiico buy � MFI 65.56
Continsure buy � volume index 0.77
Diamond buy 80% sell 20% volume index 2.99 MFI 36.26
Fbnh buy � MFI 33.43
Fcmb buy � MFI 48.09
Fidelity buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.48 MFI 47.17
FO buy 0% volume index 1.10 MFI 24.42
GT buy 0% volume index 0.88 MFI 27.90
Jaiz buy 0% MFI 47.43
Japaul buy 0% volume index 0.81 MFI 50.55
Mben buy 0% volume index 1.56 MFI 32.53
Skye buy � volume index 0.75 MFI 64.06
Transcorp buy 20% sell 80% MFI 68.08
Uba buy 60% sell 40% MFI 13.58
Uniondac buy � MFI 65.41
Wapic buy 0% MFI 52.72
Wema buy 0% MFI 25.39
Zenith buy 0% MFI 28.24

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_11.html

Despite Suit, MTN Group Confident Of Resolving $10.13bn Dispute With Nigeria

Rob Shuter, Chief Executive of African telecommunications giant- MTN Group, on Tuesday expressed confidence that the ongoing dispute with Nigeria’s Federal Government and its Central Bank (CBN) would be resolved amicably.
Reuters quoted Shuter as telling reporters at the ITU Telecom World conference in Durban that: “Nigeria, it’s our largest market. We’ve been operating there since 2001.

“We do have some challenges these past few weeks, but we believe we will be able to make our case and I’m sure we will move past that as soon as we can,” he added.
The CBN accuses MTN of using in improperly issued certificates to convert shareholder loans in its Nigerian unit to preference shares in 2007, following which $8.13bn in dividends paid by MTN Nigeria to its parent between 2007 and 2015 should be returned, the central bank said.

Also, Abubakar Malami, Nigeria’s Attorney General says MTN Nigeria should have paid approximately $2bn in taxes relating to imports of foreign equipment and payments to foreign suppliers.
Meanwhile, MTN informed investors also on Monday that it has sought protection of Nigeria’s Federal High Court.
But confirming the planned diplomatic resolution of the dispute, South Africa’s Telecommunications Minister Siyabonga Cwele said on the sidelines of the same conference that the government was ready to help put in a word for MTN.

This, he said, will however be “if they need our assistance, then we will engage our counterpart in Nigeria.
“But at this stage they have not asked us to intervene… We will be waiting for their call,” Cwele told Reuters, saying already MTN has told the South African government that talks continue between the company and the Nigerian government.
MTN’s latest troubles come about two years after it agreed to pay more than $1bn to settle a dispute over SIM cards in Nigeria.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/despite-suit-mtn-group-confident-of-resolving-10-13bn-dispute-with-nigeria/

MTN Sues FG, CBN Over $10.13bn Capital Repatriation, Tax

Not willing to go down without a fight, telecommunications giant- South Africa’s MTN Group Limited says it has dragged the Attorney General of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to court over the $8.13bn fine and refund imposed on the company.
Soon after, the AGF, Abubakar Malami, accused the company of alleged “unpaid taxes on foreign payments and imports and that approximately $2.0 billion in relation to these taxes be paid to the Federal Government of Nigeria.”

While remaining in a filing with the JSE Exchange, MTN Group Limited said it remains
“resolute that MTN Nigeria has not committed any offences and will continue to vigorously defend its position, the company’s statement which did not however state the division of the Federal High Court of Nigeria, said it has filed a suit seeking to protect its Nigerian “assets and shareholder rights within the confines of Nigerian law.
The company assured its shareholders that it also applied “for injunctive relief restraining the CBN and the AGF from taking further action in respect of their orders, while we continue to engage with the relevant authorities on these matters.

CBN had written the South African giant, whose Nigerian arm contribute substantial portions of revenue and profit, to refund $8.13bn repatriated through “irregular” Certificates of Capital Importation (CCIs) issued for dividends declared through four banks operating in Nigeria.

The banks: Standard Chartered Bank; Stanbic IBTC Bank (another company with South African parentage); Citibank; and Diamond Bank (founded by Paschal Dozie, who is founding chairman of MTN Nigeria), have been debited to the tune of N5.65bn.
The various parties may be in for a long-drawn legal battle, as CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, was reported as saying last week that “CBN examiners had been investigating three charges of infractions against the four banks and MTN, particularly the manner of funding the equity investment into MTN and the subsequent capital repatriation that resulted thereafter”.

“The investigation was in two parts, the first allegation started about two and a half years ago, when examiners began to investigate;
“The method of payment for shares by local shareholders in MTN International, which is the sole owner of MTN Nigeria.
“Whether the banks breached the extant regulations requiring banks to issue CCIs within 24 hours of receipt of funds inflowed into Nigeria.
“On the first charge regarding investment by local shareholders, the CBN examiners discovered that the local investors, purchased fx from the Nigerian foreign exchange market, repatriated the funds and these funds formed part of the total funds inflowed by MTN totaling $402m between 2001 and 2003. By the extant regulation, only funds inflowed into Nigeria qualify for the issuance of CCI.

“However, examiners observed that the extant FX regulations at the time of investment allowed Nigerians to purchase shares with foreign currency. So, whereas you would say that the investment of the local shareholders should be voided because the funds came from within Nigeria and were round tripped, you can also say that it is allowed because Nigerians were allowed to invest in foreign currency assets. So, we reasoned that since this transaction happened over 10 years ago and the company was doing well, we should grant them a waiver.

“On the Second offence regarding the CCIs, the regulation provides that banks must issue CCIs for inflowed funds within 24 hours. The examiners reported that the banks failed to issue some of the CCIs within 24 hours; which is sanctionable. Again the CBN decided to overlook this offence given that these transactions took place over 10 years ago.

“It was based on these facts that the CBN wrote the letter dated February 22, 2017 granting MTN the permission to continue paying dividends on the CCIs. So when our Directors were summoned by the Senate to provide the CBN perspective, they told the Senate that the CBN had pardoned the offences and based on this, the Senate towed the same line with the CBN and cleared MTN and the banks of the issues.
“Now the third offence, which is actually the crux of the matter in dispute now relates to the unauthorized conversion of a loan of $399 million to preference shares by the MTN and the banks and thereafter repatriated the sum of $8.1 billion without CBN final approval.

“The facts from the last examination which commenced in March 2018 is that, at the inception of the company, the shareholders inflowed the sum of $402m and reported that $343m was equity and $59m as loan. The examiners later discovered that in its 2007 audited accounts MTN’s auditors reported that the investment of $402m was stated as $2.99m in equity and $399m as loan, a statement that is in conflict with their earlier disclosure and on the basis of which CCIs had long been issued to the company.

Soon after, the company, through its bankers approached the CBN for the conversion of the loan of $399m to Preference shares. The CBN thereafter gave an Approval in Principle subject to fulfilling certain conditions. Notwithstanding, the Company and the bank went ahead and concluded the conversion to Preference shares without CBN’s final approval and based on this, repatriated the sum of $8.1bn outside the country,” he stressed.

“The CBN felt this was too grievous and that this couldn’t be ignored. When the Committee of Governors was informed about this breach, it sounded unbelievable. In order to give the MTN and the banks a fair hearing, a meeting comprising the CBN Committee of Governors, the over 20 Examiners, the MTN officials and the banks was held on May 25,2018.
“At this meeting, we gave the company the opportunity to defend itself over the breach but unfortunately, it couldn’t. In fact the bank that concluded the conversion, apologized; stating that it was an unintended error. The COG was alarmed that a bank could ignore CBN’s directive requiring final approval before such a huge transaction could be consummated.

“The COG further directed MTN and the banks to meet with the examiners to provide any evidence within one week that could convince the examiners to change their position. Indeed, the deadline for the submission of documents and evidence was extended to over 12 weeks. Despite granting these extensions, the examiners position never changed, as the Company and the banks had no new evidence to provide. Based on this, the examiners concluded their reports and made their recommendations which was subsequently adopted by the COG,” he stressed

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/mtn-sues-fg-cbn-over-10-13bn-capital-repatriation-tax/

N250m Fine: Diamond Bank Insists On Innocence, Pledges Cooperation With CBN

The management of Diamond Bank Plc, on Monday informed shareholders through the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debited its account to the tune of N250m, being fine levied over “irregular” foreign exchange remittance on behalf of MTN Communications Limited.
Diamond Bank is one of the four fingered following a 30-month investigation of illegal repatriation of $8.13bn through issuance of the “irregular” Certificates of Capital Importation (CCI) on behalf of the telecom giant.

On its part, MTN Nigeria has been directed to refund the $8.13bn in exchange for the Naira equivalent.
A statement by Uzoma Uja, Diamond Bank’s Company Secretary, while insisting on its innocence, argued that its officials “carried out the subject transaction in full compliance with all rules, regulations and guidelines,” but has promised to continue engaging and cooperating with the CBN by furnishing it with every information necessary.”

It assured “that the payment of this fine does not impact our capacity to offer normal banking services, nor out clients’ ability to access these, including transactions that have to do with capital importation.
“The bank will continue to uphold its high standard of compliance with the laws of the land.”

Besides Diamond Bank, others whose accounts were debited for a total of N5.7bn following involvement in the forex repatriation are: Standard Chartered Bank, Citibank; and Stanbic IBTC Bank, whose parent company- Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc, earlier reported to the NSE that its account was debited for the N1.8bn fine by the CBN. A further breakdown shows that Standard Chartered was fined N2.4bn; while Citibank received a N1.2bn slap.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/n250m-fine-diamond-bank-insists-on-innocence-pledges-cooperation-with-cbn/

NSE Drops 25.82% From Jan-High, As 2019 Concerns Drags Investor Sentiments Lower

Market Update for September 10, 2018

Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) extended its downtrend on Monday to start the week, consolidating four consecutive sessions of decline that finally broke down the psychological line of 34,000 mark on a low traded volume. Since January 2018 when the NSE hit its five-year peak at 45,312.82 basis points, the NSE has lost 25.82% to rank the worst performing market in the globe, as well as the MSCI Emerging Market Index that had decline by 20% from its high on both an intraday and closing basis. This officially puts the index in bear market territory.

The emerging markets had suffered this fate due to the rate hike in developed economies and markets which put pressure on the upcoming markets as funds were exiting the equity market for another investment window in US Treasury Bills as yield almost hit 3.2%. However, the Nigerian stock situation worsened the slowdown in economic activities that resulted in the fragile growth that was supported by the non-oil sector. Knowing that the strong recovery recorded in 2017 as revealed by the GDP is weak, considering the Q1 2018 GDP figure of 1.95% that declined to 1.5% by Q2 GDP released by NBS. Add this to the heightened political risk as the 2019 general elections draw closer on daily basis with the gale of defections without a clear economic plan or agenda to revitalize or boost the economy from the politicians and their team.

The composite NSE All-Share index started the day on a gap down, which was sustained in the mid-morning till afternoon as it made lower lows to touch intraday lows of 33,594.44 basis points from a high of 34,014bps, before retracing up marginally to close the day lower at 33,611.69bps on a high selling pressure.
Despite the prolonged ‘sell’ market, some stocks have remained fundamentally attractive. Identifying when to buy is however what technical analysis will do for you, that is why you should go for Investdata Consulting’s July 28, 2018 Stock Trading Workshop HOME STUDY PACK. These are audio-visual materials you can play to view the live class on your phone and laptop to help you know when to jump into the market and specific stocks, or stay out. For your Study Pack, call or send ‘YES’ to the phone numbers below.

Market technicals for the day were negative with high sell sentiments, low volume traded and negative market breadth as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a ‘sell’ volume of 96% and ‘buy’ position at 4%. Volume index was 0.58 of the day’s total transactions.
Momentum behind the day’s market performance was weakened, as shown in the money flow index at 37.98bps, down from previous day’s 43.54bps, indicating that funds are still leaving the market despite the few kobo stocks that appreciated in the midst of the prevailing low liquidity in the market.

Index and Market Cap
The NSE index at the end of the trading session shed 426.22bps, closing at 33,611.69 basis points, after opening at 34,03791bps, representing a 1.25% decline, just as market capitalisation lost N155.6bn, closing at N12.27tr, from N12.45tr representing a 1.25% value loss, that further deepening investors loss position.
If you haven’t joined Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup, where you can look over our shoulder and follow to know when to hold cash and take advantage of the watchlist of stocks for different investment purposes that you may position in, as the market decline create new opportunity. To register and become a member send Yes or stocks to the phone numbers below. The number of stocks on our watch list has increased due to the prolonged correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.

Monday, downturn was impacted by selloffs in medium and high cap stocks like Nestle, NB, Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, UBA and GSPEC that further impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date return now at 12.11%. Market capitalisation within the period dropped to N1.34 trillion, or 9.84%.

Bear Sector Performance
Sectorial performance for the day was bearish, as all indices closed red. Market breadth was negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 21:11 to continue bearish run.
Volume and value were down by 11.74% and 34.29% respectively to 137.63 million shares worth N1.36 bilion, from the previous day’s 155.95 million units valued at N2.07 billon.

Transactions for the day were boosted by trading in financial service stocks that witnessed increased trading to top the activity chart, like: Diamond Bank, UBA, Guaranty Trust Bank, Fidelity Bank and FNBH.
Sunu Assurance (Equity Assurance) and Union Diagnostic were the best stocks as they topped the advancers’ table, after gaining 10% and 7.4% respectively to close at N0.22and N0.29, purely on market sentiments and low-price attraction. On the flip side, Nestle and GSPEC were the worst, losing 9.7% and 9.4% respectively to close at N1,355 and N5.75 on market forces and profit taking.

Market Outlook
We expect the market to maintain this volatility as bargain hunters take advantage of the low-price regime, in the midst of continued selloff and political risk, especially as primaries kick off any moment from now.
Meanwhile, investors are looking forward to Q3 earnings reports so as to rebalance their portfolios and watch the political space, while analysing the actual numbers released has given basic insight into companies’ earnings power that are likely to drive prices and determine the market.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company’s numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.
However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/09/nse-drops-25-82-from-jan-high-as-2019-concerns-drags-investor-sentiments-lower/

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report


NSEASI buy 68% sell 32% MFI 32.41
Access buy � volume index 1.30 MFI 31.78
Afrprud buy 0% MFI 57.66
Aiico buy 17% sell 83% volume index 0.91 MFI 66.13
Continsure buy 0% volume index 0.92 MFI 23.55
Dangote sugar buy 0% MFI 51.76
Diamond buy � volume index 1.32 MFI 39.50
Fbnh buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 36.27
Fcmb buy 0% MFI 46.66
Fidelity buy 0% volume index 1.28 MFI 44.28
FO buy 0% volume index 1.11 MFI 23.92
GT buy 39% sell 61% volume index 1.33 MFI 27.90
Japaul buy 0% volume index 1.54 MFI 47.01
Lasaco buy � volume index 0.97 MFI 62.09
Nahco buy 0% MFI 95.59
Oando buy 14% sell 86% volume index 1.18 MFI 69.05
Regalins buy � MFI 9.07
Skye buy 100 � MFI 56.54
Sovereins buy � volume index 1.21 MFI 45.66
Transcorp buy 0% MFI 66.71
Uba buy 12% sell 88% MFI 14.29
Ucap buy 0% volume index 1.03 MFI 47.18
Uniondac buy 67% sell 33% MFI 67.96
Wapic buy � volume index 0.83 MFI 60.65
Wema buy 0% MFI 28.35
Zenith buy 0% volume index 0.74 MFI 32.34

http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_12.html

Sheep

A sheep is that investor who has no strategy in mind but instead trades on emotion. He simply listens to others and thereby join the bandwagon team.

Unfortunately, he places his financial futures on hearsay of people who do not have reliable sources of sound investment advice, as a result often misses out on the most meaningful moves in the market.

This type of investor often makes rash investments decisions and are often the last to get in on a major market rally. They can be eaten by a bull or bear if they are not in the right place in the market.

Like the animal that inspires this term in stock market arena, a sheep of an investor is a follower, relying on a shepherd for guidance.

Investdata Academy
http://investdataltd..com/2018/09/sheep.html