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Counting Card At Blackjack - What To Expect, What To Not Expect - Career - Nairaland

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Counting Card At Blackjack - What To Expect, What To Not Expect by MFerrara(m): 7:20am On Sep 28, 2017
This will be a quick introduction to the concept of professional card counting as a second income option.

Professional gambling is a profession that a lot of people dream about - who wouldn't want to go to sleep with loaded pockets when the others have to get up to go work for a boss they dislike, in an endless 9-to-5 grind?

While I am not a professional card counter by any means (I am simply an actuary with a deep passion for math and luck-based chance games), nor am I at a level of skill comparable to a true professional (not by a long shot), counting cards is something that I have done for the last 8 odd years weekend in, weekend out - sometimes with very low bets, sometimes with much higher ones. Having some free time, I thought it might be beneficial for other Nairalanders if I were to share some basics about counting cards, in case anyone out there was seriously thinking about trying it out.

What is Counting Cards?
In its essence, the act of counting the value of the cards remaining in a deck you (the dealer and the players) are playing with at a casino/club. This is done in order to be allow the player to gain an edge on the house (adjusting his/her bets accordingly) and make a profit off the game.

What Counting Cards is not:
It is not an easy, simple way to get rich. While the basic premise seems easy enough, especially when paired with a basic methodology (+1-1), the act itself is much harder to take to its natural end that one would expect. Why is that? Because of many reasons. For example, many times the dealer knows you are counting, or at least he will have a strong suspect and will act upon it, making the act of counting much harder for you. Other times you will have fooled the dealer, but even then playing the standard 6-decks sabot while counting will make your head spin. Pair this with a long-day (aka from 12 to 14 hours straight) of game and drinking to keep up appearances, and one can imagine that to actually make money off counting cards you will need to be ready to invest time and money, while possessing steel nerves.

How is it accomplished?
While there are a lot of methodologies, both for the individual and for the group, the most iconic is the simple +1/-1 previously mentioned, which consists in designing value to the various decks you will be playing with (a typical sabot is played with 6 decks in Italy, but I know that in many areas of the worlds you can easily find 2 or even 1 deck sabot, making the act of counting cards much easier) and then adding or subtracting value during the game, while adjusting one's bets depending on the true value of the hand.

While this methodology is pretty true and tested, I'd personally invite anyone serious about learning how to count cards to study and find for himself which method works better - I have yet to find a lot of players that agree on which is the best methodology to use. The only advice I can give is - once you found something that works, stick to your guns. Simplicity and reliability accomplish more over the course of a long game than a more profitable but unreliable methodology.

How profitable is it?
The 1 million dollar question. You can expect to make from 1/4 to 1/2 of your bet per hour once you start to gain confidence and learn the ins and outs of the method you chose to follow (about this, while sticking to your guns is good, do try to not get too stuck in a paradigm). If you are ready to be thousands of dollars, you will be able to achieve a lot, while if you want to stick to lower bets you will make comparatively less, simple as that.

Having said this, there are a lot of circumstances that might alter your profit-per-hour (for example not calling a particularly good hand to not give yourself away to the dealer, or simply sitting out certain hands), one could estimate that it could be possible to make 1$/hand dealt if the player had a constant 1% advantage over the house, for an average of 50$ +/- per hour (presuming that a player would be dealt an average of 100 hands per hour) . Personally speaking, I find this a handy if unreliable estimate: there have been days when I averaged around 100$/hour, days when I just sat out after a losing streak, and days when the average earning might have been around the estimate. Like I said before, it's really situational.

But, this should really not bother a person that was serious about learning how to count cards. Just compare yourself to a farmer - you may not know exactly the moment when you will be paid, but you know that the investment will pay dividends in the end.

To give a practical example as well as a practical advice on how to start, I started with 300 euros that would not have been sorely missed had I lost them. i began with average bets in the order of 10 euros or a little higher, and then started ramping up the average bet over the years as I began to acquire confidence in myself as a player. I would advise you all who want to try counting cards to put away a little war chest for this purpose (let me repeat this point - do not play with money you would miss if you lost it. If you count cards you play to win, not just to play and probably lose like the majority of people) and to play only with said money, alongside a percentage of your winnings.

One can decide for himself how much put away/reinvest in the game, but I found out a 55/45 split between reinvesting and putting away is a good compromise - of course everyone will find for himself the optimal split in this regard.

Should I pay a program to learn how to count cards?
I did not pay anybody to teach me - I simply checked out the books necessary at the local library. Having said this there are people that prefer a class environment. If you are one of said people, sure go ahead and enroll in a program, be in person or online. I simply advise people to try the self-help way first. It's cheaper.

Which books did you read?
Various books. Among them the classical "Beat the Dealer" of O.Thorp (even tho many of its indications are not appliable today, it is a must-read for any serious counter), "Blackjack for Blood: The Card-Counters' Bible and Complete Winning Guide" of Bryce Carlson (bought this one, very recent) and "Modern Card Counting: Blackjack", by Patrick Linsenmeyer. Of course there are endless good books about the argument, but these are three that really stuck out to me.

Many Counters play in group/this is the stereotypical setting - how real is it?
I won't lie - if you are really serious about making card counting your lifestyle, playing in a "professional" team might be for the best. On the other hand, if your objective is not to earn millions (and yes, it is well within the real of possibility. Various famous counters earned millions and some even tens of millions) but simply to create a 2nd form of income (that just so happens to be an enjoyable passion at the same time), you can very well go ahead alone in this world. It might make things a bit harder, but it is also easier at the same time.

"There are few casinos/clubs in my area! What can I do?"
Travel. There is no middle way. The natural place for a card counter is at a Blackjack table. If there is no table, there is no counting cards. Simple as that.

Note: the values I express are in dollars and euros since I live in Europe. If you live in Nigeria, you will play in the local currency and will bet in said currency, ergo convert/re-size what I said for your own local reality. Same thing for people that live out of Nigeria that happen to read this brief piece: if your currency is anything other than $ or euros, simply use your own local standards and apply them to the game.

I hope this brief piece gave everybody something interesting to think about and that it might have been helpful - if it has been, it has accomplished its purpose.

Have a good day!

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