By Emmanuel Eneojo Akagu
emmanauelakagu@gmail.com
We don’t have time, time to blame who caused this problem that now constitutes a new global medical emergency, or to delegate who alone should bear the burden, it is what it is, and it is upon every one of us like pink rubber bands on a kid’s braces. The earth is heating up, now 1.33 degrees higher than the 1900 level, causing polar ice to melt, raising the sea level, and resulting in flood risks in coastal cities like Lagos, and other negative consequences of its aftermath. The trouble is, people’s health is also impaired.
According to the United Nations, climate change is expected to intensify the health problems that already pose a major burden to vulnerable populations like Nigeria. At the same time, coordinated international responses can help prevent some of the worst impacts of climate change on health.
What does this mean for us? You won’t like the answer to this vital question, I didn’t like it. I’ll try to illustrate what it means to us in various fronts. The impact of climate change in Nigeria incorporates temperature rise, extreme weather events and a rise in sea level. And the Nigerian people would face harsh impacts of the aftermath of this in the spheres of water and food insecurity, greater exposure to the risk of heat stress, an alteration of the patterns of disease transmission (both infectious and vector born), and the flood risks of coastal towns and cities, from Calabar to Lagos. Sufficient mitigation measures and adaptation would go a long way in promoting public health, security and development of land and water resources from the hazard or threat of climate change.
In the aspect of human heath, it constitutes a grave danger to the generality of the population in Nigeria. In 2010, a United Nations report indicated that 1555 people in Nigeria died from cholera, and 38173 cases in total were reported as a result of heavy rains and excessive floods, the same was the case in 1991 where 7654 deaths were reported according to statistics from WHO with majority being women and children, and majorly in northern Nigerian cities. This epidemic was as a result of excessive rains and flooding, which polluted municipal water sources and supply systems, including wells and streams. Sewage flows indiscriminately, openly in many of these cities, and when it floods, the risk of ingesting water contaminated with human and animal faeces if heightened.
The melting of the polar ice caps has led to a rise in sea level over the last century, as shown by NASA, risking many cities in Nigeria’s southern states. A report by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency indicates that an average of 548300 people are projected to be affected by flooding annually due to sea level rise between 2070 and 2100. With improved R& D, development and adaptation programmes like continued construction and raising of dikes, the annual affected population could be limited to about 300 households. There are indications that adaptation alone may not proffer sufficient protection to sea level rise which is a long term process, and with high emissions leading to increased impact. Apart from the death risk from drowning, flooding causes monumental indirect health consequences, including but not limited to impacts on food production, water, and disrupting the ecosystem, others include spread of infectious vector-borne diseases, water related diseases and population displacement.
In the aspect of heat related mortality, an enquiry into the incidence of this threat of climate change was launched by Yasushi Honda in 2015, and he argued that under a high emissions scenario, heat related mortality in aged people (65 years and above) are projected to increase to about 80/100000 by 2080, compared to the present baseline statistics of about 3 deaths in 100000 annually, from 1961 to 1990. Mean annual temperatures is expected to be heightened by climate change, and the intensity and frequency of heat waves, resulting in a greater number of people at risk of heat-related medical conditions, may be heightened. The aged, children, those with chronic illnesses, and other vulnerable groups are at higher risk to heat-related conditions.
On the standpoint of food security and nutrition, agricultural production is negatively impacted by higher temperatures, draught, floods, and human displacement. Members of the vulnerable group (in economic, political and social terms) are mostly affected, and could constitute a crisis, as was the case in Nigeria’s north-east in 2015 to 2017. A further exposure to extreme weather events could only escalate the crisis. A report in the WEF indicats that unless with considerable effort made to improve climate resilience for the vulnerable group, the risk of a food crisis and malnutrition globally could go up by about 20% by 2050. It was 31% in 2013 in Nigeria among under-5 children.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in April 2017 produced a report which highlighted inspiring examples of adaptation solutions for health worldwide, which included some eye catching, mind blowing initiatives that could be adopted by Nigeria. They include food programming initiatives for vulnerable countries, mosquito surveillance network monitors, smart hospitals and health facilities, and integrating health into the national adaptation plans. Lastly, awareness of the issue must be raised via self learning courses and public health teaching in institutions. Employing all these initiatives and more will go a long way in improving our resilience to climate change, and mitigating its negative impact.