Nigeria’s decades-old program to boost wheat production and reduce imports worth more than $4 billion a year has faltered with farmers cutting output because of soaring input costs, leaving foreign suppliers to meet rising domestic demand, officials and farmers’ groups said.

The latest harvest is coming in slowly and output will drop in the current season, Zakari Turaki, head of cereals research at the Lake Chad Research Institute, based in the northeastern city of Maiduguri, said in a phone interview. Many farmers say that the government of President Muhammadu Buhari, which took office in 2015, suspended a program to support strategic crops, including wheat subsidies, causing many of them to abandon the grain.

“The problem is that farm inputs, like seeds, are not subsidized and the poor farmer cannot afford to buy it,” said Mala Kachalla, a wheat farmer who spoke by phone from the northern city of Zaria. “Some of our farmers imported winter seeds as they’re cheaper. Unfortunately, this type doesn’t grow in this part of the world, because here we grow spring wheat.”

Nigeria produced an average of 80,000 tons of wheat a year for decades until the introduction of a new variety in the 2012-13 season that tripled the average yield as more areas were cultivated, according to the Lake Chad Institute. Output fell sharply to 60,000 metric tons in the 2016-17 season after reaching a peak of 350,000 tons in 2013-14, according to Turaki, with farmers also hurt by the Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in some of the growing regions. He sees a further production decline in the current season to 50,000 tons.

In contrast, Nigeria’s wheat imports, which reached 4.6 million tons in 2017, are expected to expand by 9 percent to 5 million tons next year and double from that by 2030, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as demand surges for wheat-based foods such as pizza, pasta and bread. The West African nation estimates it spends $4 billion to $5 billion annually on wheat imports.

Temperate Crop

Agriculture Minister Audu Ogbeh didn’t respond to two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment. Buhari’s administration has said that it is seeking to diversify the oil-dependent economy by boosting agriculture.

Though wheat is a temperate crop, it grows in irrigated farms in northern Nigeria’s cool, dry season from November to April. Farmers like Kachalla say there’s enough land to grow all of the country’s wheat requirements with government support.

Such sentiments propelled the country to ban wheat imports in 1986 as the military regime then in power launched the domestic grower plan and experiments were encouraged to create alternative flour from cassava, corn and local wheat combinations. The ban was lifted six years later under diplomatic pressure from the U.S., the main source of Nigeria’s imports.

In the absence of government support, many farmers are leaving wheat and adopting other crops that are less expensive to grow. Those who persist are finding it difficult to sell as millers prefer the cheaper imported wheat.

Pasta and Noodles

“Flour millers prefer to buy foreign wheat because it is cheaper,” said Abdullahi Argungu, chairman of the wheat farmers association in northwestern Kebbi state. “But in terms of quality, our local wheat is better than the imported one.”

In Gombe state farmers have given up plans to plant 10,000 hectares (25,000 acres) of wheat while in Kano the cultivated area was reduced to 10,000 hectares in 2018 from 33,000 hectares in the previous year, according to Batari Dauda, chairman of the local wheat farmers association.

Wheat imports into Nigeria attract a duty of 20 percent, while flour is charged a 100 percent duty. Imports of wheat flour, pasta, noodles and spaghetti are banned.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/nigeria-s-domestic-wheat-plan-falters-with-imports-set-to-surge

I remember the cassava flour initiative of the goodluck administration.


What has happened to it?

We should be sticking to crops we have an advantage in producing. This mindset if being completely self sufgient in everything is not necessary. After decades of subsidizes the poor farmers still can't compete. It's crazy to think they can't afford the seeds the and other agro inputs even with the low interest loans.

One thing to note is countries like America subsidize their wheat to the nth degree. Farm subsidies don't have to be used. If you follow new Zealand's example you could have successful agro sector.

The Nigerian obsession with "self-sufficiency" just shows the total lack of understanding of the principle of comparative advantage, even at the highest levels of government. Buhari and his propagandists are just the latest in a long line of Nigerian rulers who can't seem to grasp that "self sufficiency" has nothing to do with prosperity, otherwise countries like North Korea and Nigeria (which already has one of the lowest import to GDP ratios in the world) would be at the top of the prosperity lists, while countries like the UK, South Korea and Singapore would be amongst the poorest. It's economic ignorance like this - along with the pervasive corruption and irrational, tribalism-driven policy-making - which has led to Nigeria suffering from such low economic growth for so many decades, even as formerly poorer countries have passed us by.

omohayek:
The Nigerian obsession with "self-sufficiency" just shows the total lack of understanding of the principle of comparative advantage, even at the highest levels of government. Buhari and his propagandists are just the latest in a long line of Nigerian rulers who can't seem to grasp that "self sufficiency" has nothing to do with prosperity, otherwise countries like North Korea and Nigeria (which already has one of the lowest import to GDP ratios in the world) would be at the top of the prosperity lists, while countries like the UK, South Korea and Singapore would be amongst the poorest. It's economic ignorance like this - along with the pervasive corruption and irrational, tribalism-driven policy-making - which has led to Nigeria suffering from such low economic growth for so many decades, even as formerly poorer countries have passed us by.

Let me make you laugh. I saw on NTA 2 Channel 5 that government want agriculture to account for 49% of GDP.

I shook my head in Yoruba when I saw this.

I think the policy is on going. I don't remember anyone cancelling it.

CSTR1003:
I remember the cassava flour initiative of the goodluck administration.


What has happened to it?

grandstar:


Let me make you laugh. I saw on NTA 2 Channel 5 that government want agriculture to account for 49% of GDP.

A shook my head in Yoruba when I saw this.

In other words, they want to take Nigeria in the opposite direction to that which every other country - including agricultural powerhouses like America, Canada and Australia - has taken to attain highly-developed status! It's sobering to think that the livelihoods of more than 180 million people depend on the decisions of leaders so ignorant of even the rudiments of economic history, and that the rank economic illiterate currently in Aso Rock is coasting to another 4 years of economic destruction, thanks to a toothless and incompetent opposition.

they are not illiterate
it doesn't pay them to fix it

omohayek:

In other words, they want to take Nigeria in the opposite direction to that which every other country - including agricultural powerhouses like America, Canada and Australia - has taken to attain highly-developed status! It's sobering to think that the livelihoods of more than 180 million people depend on the decisions of leaders so ignorant of even the rudiments of economic history, and that the rank economic illiterate currently in Aso Rock is coasting to another 4 years of economic destruction, thanks to a toothless and incompetent opposition.

omohayek:
The Nigerian obsession with "self-sufficiency" just shows the total lack of understanding of the principle of comparative advantage, even at the highest levels of government. Buhari and his propagandists are just the latest in a long line of Nigerian rulers who can't seem to grasp that "self sufficiency" has nothing to do with prosperity, otherwise countries like North Korea and Nigeria (which already has one of the lowest import to GDP ratios in the world) would be at the top of the prosperity lists, while countries like the UK, South Korea and Singapore would be amongst the poorest. It's economic ignorance like this - along with the pervasive corruption and irrational, tribalism-driven policy-making - which has led to Nigeria suffering from such low economic growth for so many decades, even as formerly poorer countries have passed us by.

are you sure we don't have an advantage in wheat?

mikolo80:
are you sure we don't have an advantage in wheat?

Have you bothered to look up the Wikipedia entry for wheat (Triticum aestivum)? If you did that (or a Google search) you'd realize that it does best in more temperate parts of the world, rather than in the tropics, which is why places like Canada and the USA are by far the biggest wheat producers. There's a reason why wheat was never a part of West African diets before powers like Britain and France came to carve out colonies. Here's a scientific paper discussing the issue: https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/100419/2/02whole.pdf

In any case, this is all irrelevant. The market naturally sorts out which goods and services have a comparative advantage where, and all governments have to do is stop trying to interfere with the results. Cocoa production in Ghana and Nigeria took off despite the intentions of the British, who wanted to force farmers to grow rice, and if our farmers have an advantage in wheat, the interference of an inept and corrupt Nigerian government won't be required to make it tell.

omohayek:

Have you bothered to look up the Wikipedia entry for wheat (Triticum aestivum)? If you did that (or a Google search) you'd realize that it does best in more temperate parts of the world, rather than in the tropics, which is why places like Canada and the USA are by far the biggest wheat producers. There's a reason why wheat was never a part of West African diets before powers like Britain and France came to carve out colonies. Here's a scientific paper discussing the issue: https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/100419/2/02whole.pdf

In any case, this is all irrelevant. The market naturally sorts out which goods and services have a comparative advantage where, and all governments have to do is stop trying to interfere with the results. Cocoa production in Ghana and Nigeria took off despite the intentions of the British, who wanted to force farmers to grow rice, and if our farmers have an advantage in wheat, the interference of an inept and corrupt Nigerian government won't be required to make it tell.

hope the article talks about spring wheat which can grow profitably in african highlands.as opposed to winter wheat which is not temp tolerant

omohayek:

Have you bothered to look up the Wikipedia entry for wheat (Triticum aestivum)? If you did that (or a Google search) you'd realize that it does best in more temperate parts of the world, rather than in the tropics, which is why places like Canada and the USA are by far the biggest wheat producers. There's a reason why wheat was never a part of West African diets before powers like Britain and France came to carve out colonies. Here's a scientific paper discussing the issue: https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/100419/2/02whole.pdf

In any case, this is all irrelevant. The market naturally sorts out which goods and services have a comparative advantage where, and all governments have to do is stop trying to interfere with the results. Cocoa production in Ghana and Nigeria took off despite the intentions of the British, who wanted to force farmers to grow rice, and if our farmers have an advantage in wheat, the interference of an inept and corrupt Nigerian government won't be required to make it tell.

fortunately agric is still dominated by the private sector despite three massive ignorance present there

Blue3k:
We should be sticking to crops we have an advantage in producing. This mindset if being completely self sufgient in everything is not necessary. After decades of subsidizes the poor farmers still can't compete. It's crazy to think they can't afford the seeds the and other agro inputs even with the low interest loans.

One thing to note is countries like America subsidize their wheat to the nth degree. Farm subsidies don't have to be used. If you follow new Zealand's example you could have successful agro sector.

what is New Zealand example?
Example in what? Wheat or... What exactly?

There agricultural policies im which new Zealand cut subsidies then pivate farmers grew sector through Technological innovation. They focused on areas of competitive advantage being wool cheese and milk production.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYbrWOfhtKY

MIKOLOWISKA:
what is New Zealand example?
Example in what? Wheat or... What exactly?

Blue3k:
There agricultural policies im which new Zealand cut subsidies then pivate farmers grew sector through Technological innovation. They focused on areas of competitive advantage being wool cheese and milk production.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYbrWOfhtKY

thanks chairman

omohayek:

Have you bothered to look up the Wikipedia entry for wheat (Triticum aestivum)? If you did that (or a Google search) you'd realize that it does best in more temperate parts of the world, rather than in the tropics, which is why places like Canada and the USA are by far the biggest wheat producers. There's a reason why wheat was never a part of West African diets before powers like Britain and France came to carve out colonies. Here's a scientific paper discussing the issue: https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/100419/2/02whole.pdf

In any case, this is all irrelevant. The market naturally sorts out which goods and services have a comparative advantage where, and all governments have to do is stop trying to interfere with the results. Cocoa production in Ghana and Nigeria took off despite the intentions of the British, who wanted to force farmers to grow rice, and if our farmers have an advantage in wheat, the interference of an inept and corrupt Nigerian government won't be required to make it tell.

If I get your messages clear. We should be looking to produce enough of those things that thrive best in our climate naturally instead of trying to produce more of what we consume.

I think this makes sense. Why try to plant wheat because we consume it? Why not exploit the potential of other crops we have comparative advantage in like cocoa., cassava, yam and corn and earn enough. money to buy the wheat we need?

It is sad we have people in power who are constantly thinking of how to use sensitive policies to play intertribal and interregional politics.


It may surprise you know that solar generated power is being auctioned for as low as N10,000/Megawatt Hour or N10/kilowatt hour around the world while Nigeria with abundance of resource for solar power is struggling with vandalism prone gas plant infrastructure that delivers power at a higher cost. Why not use these solar power plants to satisfy the energy need during the day for millions of day time working Nigerians instead of having the run on petrol generators for as high as N120/kilowatt hour?

CodeTemplar:

If I get your messages clear. We should be looking to produce enough of those things that thrive best in our climate naturally instead of trying to produce more of what we consume.

Exactly. That's the reason why Nigeria became a major exporter of groundnuts, cocoa and palm oil even early during the colonial era. As you point out, thanks to Nigeria's equatorial location, the country also has a major competitive advantage when it comes to producing clean energy from solar power, so not only should there be no difficulty meeting the country's domestic energy needs from that source, Nigeria's advantage should also start drawing energy-intensive industries from abroad, assuming an attractive regulatory and policy framework is in place, which is the biggest problem with Nigeria's economy. Most of Nigeria's leaders have been a toxic combination of utterly incompetent (like Buhari) or corrupt (like GEJ), and therefore incapable or uninterested in passing policies that will attract major foreign investment: everything in this country is about chasing after a share of oil-revenues (aka "national cake" to the exclusion of everything else.

Update wheat imports surge 31% according to Bloomberg.