At last: West Lo kan

The thunderous lyric of West Lokan was the singsong in the political orchestral of Osun four years ago. It was the dying moments of Aregbesola’s 8-year tenure. Aregbesola who hailed from Osun East had succeeded Oyinlola from Osun Central. Little wonder that those from Osun West felt it was their turn to run the affairs of Osun state in the immediate post Aregbesola era. That would not happen though as Aregbesola’s chief of Staff, Oyetola who hailed from Osun central was already positioned by the political godfather of Aregbesola to succeed him. Aregbesola grudgingly agreed and as it turned out, the likes of Adeoti, a political virtuoso who was Aregbesola’s Secretary (SSG) and Najeem Salam, then Speaker of the House of Assembly felt shortchanged. Adeoti quit the party and ran on the ticket of ADP. Oyetola was eventually declared the winner of the 2018 Osun governorship election after a rerun.
Less than 2 years into that regime, things fell apart between Aregbesola and his supposed political godson Oyetola. That political internecine culminated in the loss of Oyetola’s bid for second term on July 16, 2022. Prior to that, Aregbesola had called his political godfather, Tinubu out in a manner that betrayed his diehard loyalty to his benefactor. It would be wrong however to reduce the outcome of that election to the political quagmire in the APC. The purpose of this piece is to provide an analysis of that election and proceed to set an agenda for the incoming PDP government.

1. The implosion within the APC: As stated above, the ruling party in Osun, APC shot itself in the foot through relentless internal bickering in the past two years. The Ileri group of Oyetola and the TOP group of Aregbesola/Adeoti went for the jugular. It did not appear the governor had the political sagacity to grapple with this problem. The last thing the governor should have allowed was for this issue to linger into the election. My training and understanding of politics show that politics is a game of interest mediated by compromises. The more I investigated the root cause of the political “love-lost”, the more I realised it was more a clash of interests rather than a battle for public good. While Aregbesola’s rationale was that his legacy was being eroded by his successor, Oyetola tried to parry it by retorting that there is a difference between legacy and policy and his attempt was not to rubbish Aregbesola’s legacy but rather to tweak some of his policies that were considered below par and not in public interest. Jagaban, the political godfather of the duo looked the other way while the two children wrestled in the mud. The result was a divided house that crumbled in the face of stiff opposition from PDP

2. Political Alienation: An acquaintance of mine told me 4 weeks ago that the political imbroglio within APC was not lineal. There was a third force that did not wish Oyetola well. This third force neither belonged to Ileri not TOP group. As a fact, some of them belonged to the APC executives at the ward, Local government and state levels. As much as they were sympathetic to the Ileri group, they felt alienated in the scheme of things, they were excluded from meetings-both sensitive and ordinary, they felt untrusted. For this group, the only way out is for APC to lose so the party could be reorganised for future political battles. My source indeed said he made several efforts to reach the governor through text messages and phone calls, but all efforts were ignored. This takes us to the third factor.

3. Governor’s inaccessibility: Oyetola is reputed to be gentle but inaccessible. He rarely responds to text messages or phone calls. At least a Senator from Osun and a House of Representative member have complained in the open about their inability to get audience with the governor. It does not bode well that a National Assembly member, irrespective of the political party, could not reach the governor despite several attempts. Politics apart, any governor who does not make himself accessible is digging his own political demise sooner or later.

4. Adelekes’ strategic Moves: Soon after the 2018 election believed by the Adelekes to have been stolen, the political strategist of the Adeleke dynasty. “chairman” Deji Adeleke went to the drawing board and came out with a blueprint targeted at wrestling power from the APC in 2022. Part of the gameplan was to change the leadership of the PDP in the state. This led to the removal of Adagunodo as the party chairman. Sunday Bisi, erstwhile state party PRO became the acting chairman. The symbol of the struggle, Ademola Adeleke, widely touted to be “uneducated” went back to school to shore up his qualifications for the battle ahead. He returned to Nigeria from Georgia, USA with a diploma in Criminology. No doubt, the governor elect has vastly improved going by his performance during the 2022 Osun governorship debates. He beamed with confidence and relative astuteness contrary to 4 years ago when he voted with his feet and refused to participate in any debate. This adhered him to many swing voters who felt impressed by the much-improved Senator Ademola Adeleke. Besides, Chaiman “MAO” of the Adeleke dynasty, Deji Adeleke skillfully reached out to the stakeholders in different parts of the state who got sold out to the idea of Senator Adeleke’s freshly minted capacity for the job, Openly or clandestinely, some stakeholders in Osun worked for Adeleke’s victory.

5. A “kind of peace” in the PDP: Even though PDP also broke into two factions; Adeleke vs Oyinlola faction, national political gladiators in the PDP were able to broker a “kind” of peace that resulted in Oyinlola showing up at the Maga rally of PDP, two days to the governorship election.

6. The Osogbo Factor: Osogbo (Osogbo and Olorunda) delivered over 50,000 to PDP in the governorship election. Many factors contributed to this victory; Ataoja’s outburst when Senator Adeleke visited him, which went viral and was believed by many to be a tacit support for Adeleke, disenchantment by not a few who believed government’s presence was not felt in Osogbo, and many other clandestine factors not fit to be published here.
Ataoja’s outburst turned out to be a calculated risk and should be rewarded by the governor elect. Osogbo should at the very least be rewarded with the post of the SSG, the governor elect should also steer clear of any act that will seem antagonistic to the cause of Osogbo as a people and as a state capital. If not, another election will come like a thief in the night and the tide may turn.

7. INEC and Security Agencies’ Vigilance: On the eve of the election, a group of thugs believed to be positioned to cause chaos during the election were apprehended in Osogbo. This singular act doused the fear of safety many voters may have entertained. Hence, the election was largely free from the usual tension especially in the major cities but for a few skirmishes in places like Ife South, Irewole, and Ifelodun. INEC was also able to perfect its act with the timely distribution of election materials and the digital transmission of results which foreclosed a repeat of alleged result tampering four years ago.

8. Civil Servants: The so-called rally by the civil servants in favour of the incumbent a few days to the election turned out to be a ruse as the civil servants were believed to be disenchanted and indifferent because of the backlog of unpaid salary arrears and other entitlements. They were further angered by the political strategy of the incumbent to issue letters of promotion on the eve of the election which the civil servants considered insulting to their intelligence.

9. Increased Political Awareness: Compared to previous elections, more voters participated in the 2022 Osun governorship election than the previous elections. About 800,000 voters were accredited in the 2022 elections compared with the 696,000 that were accredited in 2018.

Agenda for the incoming government

Job Creation: Statistics have it that there is over 27 percent unemployment rate in Osun as of 2021. Job creation requires ingenuity and not mere political rhetoric. I implore the governor elect to use his friendship with Dangote to get the erstwhile Osogbo Steel Rolling Mills running along with other moribund manufacturing establishments in Osun to open job opportunities.

Entrepreneurship: Mr Governor elect, you should identify available endowments in each Local Government area and build local capacity around it to create opportunities for the people.

FDI: It is not enough to promise you’re bringing dollars and pounds through foreign direct investment, you should make it happen.
Security should be in the front burner. Osun should be a safe haven for all and sundry.

To put this piece to bed, I want the Adelekes and the PDP to be wary of the pitfalls of the outgoing government because “pasan ti afi lu iyale, owa laja fun iyawo”. Let them run an inclusive government devoid of acrimony and nepotism.

Abel Wright is a Political Analyst

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