Emeskhalifa:
THE CURRENCY SITUATION: A MUST READ

1). So many Nigerians have stacked Naira notes in their closets and are cut up with this policy of the CBN. There is a rush by ignorant Nigerians to convert their Naira to Dollars. Naira is at all time low against dollar and it's going to go even lower. For example a man converts #10m to 12,500 USD at the current exchange rate. It's easier to keep it with himself than to deposit in a Domiciliary account with a DMB because of the stringent policies around FX cash deposits. He hopes that by December when the new Nigeria is floated, he'd have his FX converted back to Naira from the Aboki guys he bought his USD from.

2)The Aboki man who sold FX to his customers at exorbitant rate excitedly goes to the DMB to deposit the millions of Naira he got the the FX swap he did. He knows he is getting richer in geometric proportion by this new policy by the CBN. He awaits the printing of the new Naira notes so as to reconvert the Naira he has in his account today USD and continue making more money.

3). All customers who deposited their Naira notes, those depositing and those who would be depositing are eagerly waiting for December 15. The DMBs are also waiting for the said date. Meanwhile there is a cashless policy waiting to hit all Nigerians by January 2023. On December 15th, customers would rush to the DMBs for new notes so as to withdraw as much as they can before January when the cashless policy would be effected 100%. The DMBS would rush to the central bank branches to withdraw new notes. The branches would go to the H/O for new notes. H/O would release just a little to branches based on cash management policies. CBN Branches would release in trinkets to DMB branches and tell them to go manage their customers. DMBs would revert back to their customers based on the low available new cash notes. There would be slight panicking as customers who deposited old naira notes cannot retrieve same notes from the DMBs anymore because of unavailability. Remember, digital money and paper money is still money and so customers would be advised to use electronic channels to make payments.

4) The Aboki guy who kept millions of Naira is also a victim of the shortage of new notes and so he cannot buy back FX from his customers who were hoping to return the ones the got earlier ones the new notes are in place. Aboki begins to panick as well. Those who have FX and need naira notes begin to sell their FX to people who have naira whether old or new just to cash in before January. In doing so, USD begins to crash as rapidly as it rose. Much of the FX becomes deposited in DMBs as carrying the raw cash isn't useful anymore. The CBN is happy because there is more FX in the banking system to give for Forms A, M and Q. Naira begins to gain rapidly against the dollar.

5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.

6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don't try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.

Let's try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God's grace.

okeysoninv:
china nko,no country will allow it's currency to battered like nigeria. mind it's not an issue of export and import . politicians, BDC are the cause of down fall of naira. nigeria has been doing import since creation of this country but it never get bad as of now. the panacea is kill the BDC and political spectators you will see everything falling to #440. no importer will Slash 80% of currency notes at home except the political class. the same political class are the one putting pressure on naira. politician spectators with no economic value

englishmart:
This country is badly governed. Official exchange rate is 439, but you can only access it at 800+. Are we no killing ourselves?
This government is bent on impoverishing the masses, and making things as tough on them as possible.
Feudism they say, thrives when the people are poorer and less educated.

jeffoe:
baning bdc wouldn't solve the problem (demand problem) just the same way banning abokifx have not. it would just move the market underground. we have very weak institutions continually weakened by the political class. not everyone utilising the black market are doing it for criminal reason. a lot are because they just cannot access the dollar at the official market. the real problem is in the supply side. the demand for dollar in 1960 has increased considerably but the supply (from export) has not that where the problem lies. aggressively improving productivity (agricultural export first) and then value added products export.

Emeskhalifa:
THE CURRENCY SITUATION: A MUST READ

1). So many Nigerians have stacked Naira notes in their closets and are cut up with this policy of the CBN. There is a rush by ignorant Nigerians to convert their Naira to Dollars. Naira is at all time low against dollar and it's going to go even lower. For example a man converts #10m to 12,500 USD at the current exchange rate. It's easier to keep it with himself than to deposit in a Domiciliary account with a DMB because of the stringent policies around FX cash deposits. He hopes that by December when the new Nigeria is floated, he'd have his FX converted back to Naira from the Aboki guys he bought his USD from.

2)The Aboki man who sold FX to his customers at exorbitant rate excitedly goes to the DMB to deposit the millions of Naira he got the the FX swap he did. He knows he is getting richer in geometric proportion by this new policy by the CBN. He awaits the printing of the new Naira notes so as to reconvert the Naira he has in his account today USD and continue making more money.

3). All customers who deposited their Naira notes, those depositing and those who would be depositing are eagerly waiting for December 15. The DMBs are also waiting for the said date. Meanwhile there is a cashless policy waiting to hit all Nigerians by January 2023. On December 15th, customers would rush to the DMBs for new notes so as to withdraw as much as they can before January when the cashless policy would be effected 100%. The DMBS would rush to the central bank branches to withdraw new notes. The branches would go to the H/O for new notes. H/O would release just a little to branches based on cash management policies. CBN Branches would release in trinkets to DMB branches and tell them to go manage their customers. DMBs would revert back to their customers based on the low available new cash notes. There would be slight panicking as customers who deposited old naira notes cannot retrieve same notes from the DMBs anymore because of unavailability. Remember, digital money and paper money is still money and so customers would be advised to use electronic channels to make payments.

4) The Aboki guy who kept millions of Naira is also a victim of the shortage of new notes and so he cannot buy back FX from his customers who were hoping to return the ones the got earlier ones the new notes are in place. Aboki begins to panick as well. Those who have FX and need naira notes begin to sell their FX to people who have naira whether old or new just to cash in before January. In doing so, USD begins to crash as rapidly as it rose. Much of the FX becomes deposited in DMBs as carrying the raw cash isn't useful anymore. The CBN is happy because there is more FX in the banking system to give for Forms A, M and Q. Naira begins to gain rapidly against the dollar.

5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.

6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don't try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.

Let's try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God's grace.

Emeskhalifa:
THE CURRENCY SITUATION: A MUST READ


5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.

6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don't try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.

Let's try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God's grace.

Acidosis:



If you follow that Oluwole economic explanation, you fit enter gutter.

pa3k001:
he didn't convince me enough.....there were so many assumptions in this article. The naira will not recover frm this free fall in this context.....Only except d dollar is redesigned

descarado:

Are you sure he refused?

Soludo during his time came up with scraping bdc. He was seriously warned. You resign, they put their people and continue the rot.
Who is losing . Let all of us be mad together.
When we are ready, we know what to do.

Sanusi boasted one day that he can make millions overnight through bdc.

The south is busy chasing shadows especially yoruba. Their problem is igboman.

You work, this people milk the whole money through bdc and nnpc.

grandstar:


The Abokia are not at fault. No Economists blames the Abokis. This is a clear case of markets failure.

Buhari fixes the exchange rate and repeatedly said he does not believe in devaluation. This is the crux of the matter.

Buhari believes that it is cruel for Economists to allow the currency depreciate or devalue it. He feels they fix it.

This is hogwash. First he has no to peg the exchange rate. This is the duty of the CBN. It has autonomy. Emefiele refusal to tell off the president is the cause of this disaster.

Economists are not the ultimate determinants of the exchange rate. It is the market-forces of demand and supply. If the price of crude oil falls by 50% which accounts for at least 75% of dollar inflows, Nigerians simply have to pay more for the greenback. This isn't rocket science. Economist simply work with the fundamentals, no matter how benign or malign, and manage it.

However, Buhari says no. By fire by force, it must stay at that price. His stiff-neck position is why things are so bad. Lamido Sanusii said the differential between the official and parallel market rate must not be more than 3%. Presently, its going close to 90%!

All the 3 leading presidential aspirants have all said they will make the Naira flexible again.

Powersurge:
As long as there is arbitrage opportunity, Naira will continue to slide down the bottomless pit.

The problem is generated by CBN and banks. They give dollars to ex CBN officials, politicians, "big men" with strong connects at the official rate, even lesser sometimes. These folks float the money in at the parallel market with their foot soldiers.

Banks will hoard dollars and sell to people that would float them at the parallel market.

Buhari ordered CBN to give dollars to people going to Hajj at abysmal rate. When you toy with something as sensitive as the economy, you get burnt.

okeysoninv:
they should abolish official and approve black market rate so that naira will exchange to #3000. illiterate everywhere. even USA and China doesn't float their currency. no way in the world allowed black market to determine the trajectory of it's currency except in Nigeria. rather kill the spectators and hoarders that buys up dollars available. CBN can regulate the bank but can't monitor aboki BDC. it's a shame of the country

almarthins:


I thought I was the only seeing it this way. Emefiele and finance minister should be arrested for complacency.

okeysoninv:
there is so no country without protectionism. USA protects their currency. china do, every country do.

SIRTee15:


Oga stop arguing what u don't know anything about.
US dollar is in full float, there are more dollars outside the USA than inside. How will they restrict that type of currency. Do u think dollars will be the global official currency is American govt restrict.

GreyLaw:


Emefiele tell off the president, in Nigeria? Hahaha...

Emeskhalifa:
THE CURRENCY SITUATION: A MUST READ

1). So many Nigerians have stacked Naira notes in their closets and are cut up with this policy of the CBN. There is a rush by ignorant Nigerians to convert their Naira to Dollars. Naira is at all time low against dollar and it's going to go even lower. For example a man converts #10m to 12,500 USD at the current exchange rate. It's easier to keep it with himself than to deposit in a Domiciliary account with a DMB because of the stringent policies around FX cash deposits. He hopes that by December when the new Nigeria is floated, he'd have his FX converted back to Naira from the Aboki guys he bought his USD from.

2)The Aboki man who sold FX to his customers at exorbitant rate excitedly goes to the DMB to deposit the millions of Naira he got the the FX swap he did. He knows he is getting richer in geometric proportion by this new policy by the CBN. He awaits the printing of the new Naira notes so as to reconvert the Naira he has in his account today USD and continue making more money.

3). All customers who deposited their Naira notes, those depositing and those who would be depositing are eagerly waiting for December 15. The DMBs are also waiting for the said date. Meanwhile there is a cashless policy waiting to hit all Nigerians by January 2023. On December 15th, customers would rush to the DMBs for new notes so as to withdraw as much as they can before January when the cashless policy would be effected 100%. The DMBS would rush to the central bank branches to withdraw new notes. The branches would go to the H/O for new notes. H/O would release just a little to branches based on cash management policies. CBN Branches would release in trinkets to DMB branches and tell them to go manage their customers. DMBs would revert back to their customers based on the low available new cash notes. There would be slight panicking as customers who deposited old naira notes cannot retrieve same notes from the DMBs anymore because of unavailability. Remember, digital money and paper money is still money and so customers would be advised to use electronic channels to make payments.

4) The Aboki guy who kept millions of Naira is also a victim of the shortage of new notes and so he cannot buy back FX from his customers who were hoping to return the ones the got earlier ones the new notes are in place. Aboki begins to panick as well. Those who have FX and need naira notes begin to sell their FX to people who have naira whether old or new just to cash in before January. In doing so, USD begins to crash as rapidly as it rose. Much of the FX becomes deposited in DMBs as carrying the raw cash isn't useful anymore. The CBN is happy because there is more FX in the banking system to give for Forms A, M and Q. Naira begins to gain rapidly against the dollar.

5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.

6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don't try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.

Let's try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God's grace.

okeysoninv:
what about china? is yuan float, most even . do you under what float means? USA still controls dollars if you don't know. most of you are illiterates any way. these are countries with floating currencies Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago .

SIRTee15:


You are just a block head. Go and read why American dollar is the official currency for global transaction and foreign reserve, then come back and discuss.
So many people have corrected u on this thread but u dey do strong head- typical of semi baked educated Nigerians. They will never learn and add value to themselves but be arguing blindly up and down.

I didnt mention yuan, everybody knows it's a tightly restricted and heavily regulated currency fixed to the dollar at a non fluctuating rate.

okeysoninv:
they should abolish official and approve black market rate so that naira will exchange to #3000. illiterate everywhere. even USA and China doesn't float their currency. no way in the world allowed black market to determine the trajectory of it's currency except in Nigeria. rather kill the spectators and hoarders that buys up dollars available. CBN can regulate the bank but can't monitor aboki BDC. it's a shame of the country

Mynd44:


https://twitter.com/ChifeDr/status/1588140820061888514?t=n5ZdmYQz1-4nzxjeru0VjA&s=19

whiteboyswag:
you don’t have any idea what’s going on.

englishmart:
This country is badly governed. Official exchange rate is 439, but you can only access it at 800+. Are we no killing ourselves?
This government is bent on impoverishing the masses, and making things as tough on them as possible.
Feudism they say, thrives when the people are poorer and less educated.

okeysoninv:
what about china? is yuan float, most even . do you under what float means? USA still controls dollars if you don't know.

dododawa1:
EMEFELE ( IGBO CBN governor) and BUHARI ( FULANI president) sabotaging NIGERIA,but d IDIOTs are blaming TINUBU

Emeskhalifa:
THE CURRENCY SITUATION: A MUST READ

1). So many Nigerians have stacked Naira notes in their closets and are cut up with this policy of the CBN. There is a rush by ignorant Nigerians to convert their Naira to Dollars. Naira is at all time low against dollar and it's going to go even lower. For example a man converts #10m to 12,500 USD at the current exchange rate. It's easier to keep it with himself than to deposit in a Domiciliary account with a DMB because of the stringent policies around FX cash deposits. He hopes that by December when the new Nigeria is floated, he'd have his FX converted back to Naira from the Aboki guys he bought his USD from.

2)The Aboki man who sold FX to his customers at exorbitant rate excitedly goes to the DMB to deposit the millions of Naira he got the the FX swap he did. He knows he is getting richer in geometric proportion by this new policy by the CBN. He awaits the printing of the new Naira notes so as to reconvert the Naira he has in his account today USD and continue making more money.


3). All customers who deposited their Naira notes, those depositing and those who would be depositing are eagerly waiting for December 15. The DMBs are also waiting for the said date. Meanwhile there is a cashless policy waiting to hit all Nigerians by January 2023. On December 15th, customers would rush to the DMBs for new notes so as to withdraw as much as they can before January when the cashless policy would be effected 100%. The DMBS would rush to the central bank branches to withdraw new notes. The branches would go to the H/O for new notes. H/O would release just a little to branches based on cash management policies. CBN Branches would release in trinkets to DMB branches and tell them to go manage their customers. DMBs would revert back to their customers based on the low available new cash notes. There would be slight panicking as customers who deposited old naira notes cannot retrieve same notes from the DMBs anymore because of unavailability. Remember, digital money and paper money is still money and so customers would be advised to use electronic channels to make payments.

4) The Aboki guy who kept millions of Naira is also a victim of the shortage of new notes and so he cannot buy back FX from his customers who were hoping to return the ones the got earlier ones the new notes are in place. Aboki begins to panick as well. Those who have FX and need naira notes begin to sell their FX to people who have naira whether old or new just to cash in before January. In doing so, USD begins to crash as rapidly as it rose. Much of the FX becomes deposited in DMBs as carrying the raw cash isn't useful anymore. The CBN is happy because there is more FX in the banking system to give for Forms A, M and Q. Naira begins to gain rapidly against the dollar.

5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.

6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don't try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.

Let's try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God's grace.

okeysoninv:
they should abolish official and approve black market rate so that naira will exchange to #3000. illiterate everywhere. even USA and China doesn't float their currency. no way in the world allowed black market to determine the trajectory of it's currency except in Nigeria. rather kill the spectators and hoarders that buys up dollars available. CBN can regulate the bank but can't monitor aboki BDC. it's a shame of the country

Djhitmusiq1:



Please check your facts. Most developed countries including the USA float their currencies. Google is your friend. I’m not sure if you know what floating means in macroeconomics.

Dearlord:


How sure are you that naira will not recover?

Those assumptions are the reality taking effect and that will determine the factors of it stability or instability.