Dangers of being predictable
Quite often we see psychological research results published in the media, but we tend not to question how and why these predictions were made. We sometimes apply the theories to our lives (and dealings with others) and reap their effects in due time, but on the other hand, this raises the question of whether we too are within someone else’s region of application of psychological theories.

Except for case studies, most psychological theories were created from observing animals (mostly mice) or a small group of people, and general predictions of human behaviors are made afterwards. Why do psychologists observe animals (or a few people) and conclude that humans generally behave that way? Is that not just awkward? Well, it is not, because we have been known to behave like animals, and we influence each other. Therefore, by observing animals (or a group of people), we can predict our general behaviors.

Around 300AD saw the implementation of a political masterstroke, the government policy that will define the course of human civilization. The Roman Empire had tried to curtail the growth of the Christian sect, especially because of incessant clashes with their pagan counterparts in its colonies to no avail. Measures and penalty put in place made members of the Christian sect more resolute, such that they celebrated their sufferings and struggles, and the sect continued to grow.

As a last straw, the Roman Emperor, Constantine decided to convert to Christianity, and created a story as the reason for his conversion. The Christian community accepted him and through this, he was able to quell the Christian faith and reduce the incessant attacks from the other sects, and put his name in history as the reformer of all time.

How did Emperor Constantine achieve this feat? He achieved this by exploiting a basic human predictability: if you identify a people they’ll judge you differently (favorably) from others. We tend to perverse judgment for people of same cultures, ideas, and beliefs etc. with us.

We tend to judge situations and actions based on our relationship with person(s) concerned. Our judgment are not the same for everyone, we have different kinds of judgment for different people based on relationships and status.

We will allow certain things from people of similar ideas and beliefs with us that we will not allow from people whose ideas and beliefs are different from ours. This is a major bias that we all have; we are fair to our friends and family and vicious to those we consider our enemy.

For identifying with them, the Christian sect allowed certain things from Constantine which they did not have allow from non-Christians. This gave him the opportunity to reform the Christian faith by establishing creeds and beliefs, and dictate books to be read. In fact anyone who questioned his reforms was branded heretic and killed, and even this injustice was allowed.

The result of Constantine’s reform is that the Christian faith dwindled gradually till it became a shadow of itself. The things that were possible for the apostles and other people who lived before this reform seem like myths when compared to modern day Christianity. In fact, many institution (and individuals) often fake similar situations to entice adherent because they cannot replicate such excellence.

Politicians all over the world have continued to deploy Constantine’s tactic for its efficiency; they have continued to exploit our predictability to influence our decisions, especially for election. During campaigns, politicians come to us with well-crafted and often emotional stories to identify with us just to get us to vote them or their preferred candidates.

Every of our behavior is pretty much predictable because our desires which underline our motives can be understood. Psychologists like Abraham Maslow have created proven theories of human motives and behaviors by understanding our desires, and this has been confirmed to be real by other psychologists.

However, it is important to note that these theories only predict human behavior in certain situations, and the fact that they have been proven to be real and effective till this day highlights our level of predictability.

Our behaviors are empowered by our fears, urges and ambitions. For example, it is easy to predict an unmarried young man’s behavior around a beautiful lady of his age range, or a poor man’s behavior around the rich by understanding our urges and ambitions. It also easy to predict the behavior (frantic) of society on a news of impending disaster by understanding our fears.

It really does not take educational qualification to predict our behaviors; a person does not have to be a psychologist before they can predicts us. Given enough time, anyone can predict another by simply observing them. Likewise, parent (especially mothers) often have the natural ability to predict their offspring irrespective of their age.

IMPLICATION OF PREDICTABILITY
Why do we set traps for animals, especially the ones we do not want in our homes? Why are we confident of the outcome? The answer is that we predict animals’ behavior quite easily; we leave suitable bait(s) in their paths, and we are sure that they will be attracted by our bait(s).

Are we always right with our prediction? No, but we are often right. What is the implication of this? This indicates that animals are easily exploitable; an animal can easily be exploited for its predictability to achieve an end (more often unfavorable). It can easily be trapped, killed, or relocated just by prediction of its behavior.

This should not bother us, but the fact that most psychological research are carried out on animals should make us concerned with this. If animals can be exploited for their predictability, does that mean we too can easily be exploited for our predictability?

Yes, we can easily be exploited for our predictability. For if we are predictable, we are catchable. It is only needed to create and properly place attractive bait(s) as in opportunities for us and we’ll behave expectedly. Just as animals do not apply rational and critical thinking to analyzing opportunities, we too tend to be overwhelmed with attractive opportunities.

Therefore, our predictability leaves us suitable prey for whoever seeks to exploit us, and however and whenever they chose to do that. Our fears, urges, and ambitions leave us regulated and limit our ability and behaviours to expected outcomes. Also, our biases limit our ability to make sound and rational judgment.

HOW DO WE OVERCOME PREDICTABILITY?
David had conquered every nation he warred against, and in no time became very rich from his numerous victories and was well respected among his people and even among rulers of other nations who had heard of his fame.

However, David questioned the circumstances in his life; why are the circumstances always favorable for him, and this birthed his realization that God was esteeming him and making his ways prosperous because of his people (2 Samuel 5:12, 1 Chronicles 14:2). This realization helped him stay humble and love the people because he understood how important they were in his life.

Therefore, we must always critically analyze our lives and question every circumstances. We must always analyze every opportunity that comes our way irrespective of how attractive it might be. It is natural to question the odds when things are not favorable for us, but we should endeavor to also question the odds when things are favorable for us.

A better way to overcome our predictability is through obedience to the gospel of Christ. What is the gospel of Christ? The gospel are a set of commandments Jesus gave his followers, and charged them to teach everyone how obey them. If diligently obeyed, these commandments will make us behave differently from the natural way (Mathew 28:19-20, 1 John 2:3-4).

Jesus like every other person was predictable at the early part of his life, in fact his mother predicted his action at the beginning of his mission (John 2:5), but as he began to obey and teach the life of God (Acts 1:1), his family became worried because he became very unpredictable (Mark 3:21).

Jesus was the light that could not be comprehended by the darkness; no one can predict what they cannot comprehend. His motives and decisions became unnatural, and this made his behaviors unusual and unpredictable.

We too can become like Jesus if we begin to do (i.e. obey) the gospel, and soon we will gain enough understanding to teach it to others. This will give us a new and unusual kind of thinking that is unnatural. Being natural makes us easily predictable because urges, ambitions and fears are natural part of life. Anyone who understands these can exploit us at any given time, but a spiritual (unnatural) person is unusual to a natural world and hence unpredictable.

For example, the fear of death is natural to all forms of life and our behaviors are predictable in situations that threaten our lives, but Jesus has conquered this fear and anyone who lives like him will also conquer this. In fact, the bible records a few examples of his disciples who were not regulated by this fear and behaved unexpectedly in life threatening situations.

So then, let us be intentional about becoming spiritual persons by diligently obeying the gospel of Christ. For in doing this, we’ll be saved from whatever regulates and limits us and be able to give sound (and single) judgment.
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