Here is the number of eligible voters from each zone:

http://www.todaysecho.com/exclusive-how-atiku-can-win-the-presidential-election/

This is another prediction in Atiku's favour

As the 2019 presidential election in Nigeria approaches, the major players are gearing up for a thrilling contest. Today’s Echo estimates that about 51 candidates will participate in this election. However, the two major candidates are Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC has ruled the country for over years, after defeating the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in the 2015 presidential election. It was the first time the PDP would lose power since 1999. Buhari is seeking re-election for another four years.
On Sunday, October 7, 2018, the main opposition party, PDP picked a candidate; Atiku Abubakar, who is a former Vice President and a renowned businessman. Atiku had also contested with Buhari for the APC ticket in 2015 and lost.
As Buhari and Atiku face off in a battle for the reins of Nigeria, Today’s Echo examines how Nigerians will vote and the issues that will determine the winner in this thrilling contest.

Geographical Analysis of Registered Voters
Nigeria was formed in 1914 by the British through the amalgamation of Northern and Southern protectorates. Today, the country is divided into 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, the 36 states are grouped into six geopolitical zones based on shared demographic and geography. Each geopolitical zone has a fairly homogenous mix in terms of religion and ethnicity.
Note: To win the presidential election, a candidate must win majority in both number and states and have at least 25% votes in at least 25 states.
To get a better perspective of the situation, Let’s look at the number of registered voters in each geopolitical zone:
North-West: 20,158,100
North-East: 11,289,293
North-Central: 13,366,070
South-West: 16,292,212
South-East: 10,057,130
South-South: 12,841,279
Total: 84,004,084


Current distribution of eligible voters across the 6 geopolitical zones. Source: Today’s Echo Analytics
The illustration above shows that the North-West has the largest number of electorates, concentrated around the three states of Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna. Next is the South-West, dominated by the APC.

How the States are Likely to Vote
We have considered current issues and the data released by INEC on the number of eligible voters.
Below is the analysis of PDP and APC’s share of each geopolitical zone:
North-West
The North-West seems to be an all Buhari affair as we expect him to win at least 6 states. However, we expect him not to get as much as he did in 2015 when he contested against a southerner. Atiku is should garner up to 25per cent in many states here.
In Zamfara, a traditional Buhari stronghold, he can get up to 65 per cent against Atiku’s 35 per cent
Neighbouring Sokoto will be different as the defection of the governor, Aminu Tambuwal makes it a swing state. This is 50-50
Katsina is overwhelmingly for Buhari at 80 per cent to Atiku’s 20 percent. Similarly, Jigawa will go 70- 30 in favour of Buhari.
In Kano, Kwankwaso’s influence will give Atiku a boost but will not get him more than 35 per cent to Buhari’s 65 per cent. Kaduna will also go to Buhari, though he will take 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40 per cent.

North-East
This is another region Buhari is used to winning. However, Atiku will also have a good showing here too because he is an indigene. We also expect Buhari to win at least three states here.
Despite the insurgency, Borno and Yobe are overwhelmingly for Buhari and he will likely win at ratio 65-35 in both states. Bauchi is also for Buhari as he will win by 70 per cent to Atiku’s 30 per cent.
Adamawa is different as it is Atiku’s home state. Atiku wins here with 55 per cent while Buhari takes 45 per cent. So also is Gombe, which PDP won in 2015 and where Governor Dakwambo still holds sway. Atiku will win here with 55 percent while Buhari will take 45 per cent.
Atiku’s biggest gain will perhaps, come from Taraba, where PDP won in 2015 and Aisha Al-hassan(Mama Taraba) has defected from the APC. Atiku should get up to 65 percent here to Buhari’s 35 per cent.

North Central
With the widespread insecurity arising from herdsmen attacks and defection of many popular figures from the ruling party, Atiku will have a slight edge in this region.
In Benue and Plateau, Atiku is set for victory at 60 per cent to Buhari’s 40 per cent. Niger and Nassarawa will be different though, as Buhari will win with up to 60 per cent and 55 per cent respectively.
The two battleground states in the region are Kogi, where Dino Melaye and other defectors are giving governor Yahaya Ahmed a tough time, and Kwara where the APC is hell-bent on demystifying Saraki. Both states are 50-50.
FCT, which usually votes for the incumbent, will slightly go Buhari’s way with 55 per cent to Atiku’s 45 per cent

South-East
This is one of the regions easy to predict, as Atiku will definitely win all the five states here. We don’t expect Buhari to get up to 40 percent in any state here, except Imo.
Anambra, Enugu and Abia will likely give Atiku up to 75 percent with Buhari getting around 25 per cent.
Ebonyi, where Governor Umahi has been giving silent support to Buhari, Atiku should get up to 70 per cent with Buhari settling with 30 per cent.
Imo State will give Buhari the highest number of votes in the South-East; 40 per cent estimate.

South-South
This is another region overwhelmingly in favour of Atiku. He can win all six states.
In Rivers State, despite the influence of Rotimi Amaechi, Atiku may get up to 70 per cent with Buhari taking 30 per cent.
Bayelsa and Delta will both give Atiku around 65 per cent with Buhari taking 35 per cent
Due to the influence of Akpabio, Cross River is likely to give Buhari up to 35 per cent with Atiku getting up to 65 per cent. Donald Duke is someone to watch out for in this state as he may be a spoiler.

South-West
This is the region most difficult to predict and will most likely be the ultimate determinant. This is a traditional APC stronghold due to Bola Tinubu’s influence. However, the current widespread dissatisfaction with the government may be to Atiku’s benefit. Most of the states here are too close to call.
Lagos state has a highly sophisticated and urbanised population with a blend of ethnic groups. It will likely be 50- 50.
Ondo State recently had an election where PDP was displaced, it will likely go to Buhari at 55 per cent with Atiku getting 45 per cent. Omoyele Sowore may be a spoiler for APC here.
Ekiti is also too close to call because PDP was in charge of the state until recently. It is 50-50.
Osun State is yearning for change, as seen in the recent gubernatorial election which PDP nearly won. It will go slightly to Atiku at 55-45.
Oyo and Ogun will likely go to Buhari at 60 per cent while Atiku will get around 40 per cent.

Summary
Buhari (15): Zamfara, Kebbi, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Oyo, Ogun, FCT, Niger, Nassarawa, Ondo
Atiku(17): Anambra, Abia, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Cross River, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, Delta, Bayelsa, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Edo, Adamawa, Gombe, Osun
Swing (5): Kwara, Lagos, Ekiti, Sokoto, Kogi

What this Election is About
This election is about three things; The Economy, Security, and Corruption.
The 2015 election, which swept Buhari into power was based on two issues; Corruption and Security. Many people perceived the ascetic, quiet General as a strict man who will not condone corruption. There was also the worsening insecurity in the North-Eastern part of Nigeria where Boko Haram was running riot. Many people saw Buhari’s antecedents as a stern military commander, as just what Nigeria needed to wage an uncompromising war on insurgency and rid the country of terrorism. Many also thought the APC would phase out the endemic corruption that was prevalent under the PDP, and usher in an era of rapid economic development.
It has been almost four years of Buhari’s administration and none of these has happened. Instead, the country was thrown into a debilitating recession which it is still emerging from. There has also not being much progress on corruption.
Disappointment with Government
According to Nuhu, one of the people interviewed by Today’s Echo, corruption is perceived by many to be as prevalent as it was when the PDP held sway.
“I cannot categorically say President Buhari or Vice President Osinbajo is corrupt, but they seem to have a lackadaisical attitude towards corruption around them. Look at the various allegations, including that of Governor Umar Ganduje of Kano State, former pension boss, Raheed Maina, former SGF, Babachir Lawal, and former intelligence boss, Ayo Oke who left the country before the country ordered for his arrest,” Nuhu said
Global corruption watchdog, Transparency International recently released its Corruption Perception Index, which indicates that Nigeria’s corruption perception has not changed from last year.

Why Atiku?
There is growing discontent against the current regime, but it is hard to tell how widely-spread it is. A Buharimeter poll conducted by the Centre for Democracy and Development(CDD) in May 2018 reveals that 40 percent of Nigerians approve of the President’s performance while 44 percent disapprove. This marks a decline of 17 percent from 57 percent rating recorded in the 2017.
To defeat Atiku, the APC is banking on his perception as a corrupt man. An American investigation of money laundering activities in which he was implicated readily comes to mind. There is also a shadow of elitism hanging over his head. As a former vice president, many Nigerians see Atiku as a major player in Nigeria’s sordid past. Atiku is responding by presenting his credentials as a successful businessman with stakes in several private enterprises. Atiku has also portrayed himself as the one who can get Nigeria working by reenergizing the economy and providing jobs.
He is also a capitalist; an advocate of free trade, which is both a plus and a minus for him. His manifesto reveals plans to operate a free economy and sell off some government corporations, including the petroleum behemoth; NNPC. His critics say he is planning to mortgage government enterprises to himself and his cronies in a move reminiscent of the half-done privatisation policies of previous PDP regimes.
Besides the three major issues, other factors that will be contributing to the outcome of this election are the influence of former leaders and the body language of the international community.
The Obasanjo Factor
Former president Olusegun Obasanjo is perhaps the most dominant figure of the Fourth Republic. As its pioneer president, he has been instrumental in the emergence of three other presidents, including Muhammadu Buhari. Many see his support for Atiku as a crucial factor in his quest to unseat Buhari.
Towards the 2015 presidential election, Olusegun Obasanjo upped his criticism of the incumbent government and displayed body language that showed he wanted regime change. The retired general created a public spectacle when he tore up his PDP membership card and implicitly threw his weight behind Buhari, who eventually won the election.
Although formerly a sworn enemy of Atiku, Obasanjo has explicitly supported him against Buhari, whose government he has called a ‘failure’.
In October 2018, religious leaders brokered a reconciliatory meeting between Obasanjo and his estranged former Deputy. After the meeting, Obasanjo said Atiku Abubakar had ‘re-discovered and re-positioned himself’ and is now good enough to enjoy his support in the next election.
The former president also said among the other presidential aspirants in the PDP, Atiku is the best fit to displace the president during the 2019 polls.
He however, warned him that it would not be easy to defeat President Buhari, who was able to lead a coalition to unseat an incumbent in 2015. He also charged him to obey the rule of law if he becomes president.

The International Community
Obasanjo’s stance also seems to be aligned with the international community. Although, International institutions and Western countries have explicitly declared their neutrality in the election, the body language of some Western institutions indicate a careful condemnation of the government. This does not mean they support the opposition but that they are more optimistic about regime change than the continuation of the incumbent.
The government must have felt this perceived antagonism from the west, as indicated in jittery pronouncements by top government officials. A good example of this is Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai’s careless utterances, threatening that foreigners who intervene in Nigeria’s matters during the election will leave the country in body bags.
Conclusion
This analysis is in no way definite, it is a result of careful observation of voting patterns, current trends, and available data, and Today’s Echo has tried to be as scientific as possible.
It remains a very tight race that is difficult to predict, unlike the earlier elections of the Fourth Republic. Although Atiku Abubakar may likely win with a slim margin, it can still tilt in favour of either candidates.

The Buhari Support group has called on the Economic and Financial Crimes commission to immediately issue an International Warrant of Arrest on Former Nigerian Petroleum Minister, Diezani Alison Madueke's allies, Kola Aluko of Atlantic Energy, Benedict Peters, CEO of AITEO group, and host of others back to Nigeria to face corruption charges being levelled against them.

The group in a statement signed by Alhaji Jamilu Sadauki, its Director of Youth said they are baffled by the commission's slow pace and lackadaisical attitude towards fight against corruption in recent times.

The group alleged that Benedict Peters, Kola Aluko and others are the brain behind the Third Force working assiduously to oust President Muhammadu Buhari from Power in 2019 in order to secure their freedom from prosecution.

The group said Mr. Benedict Peters played a huge role in the 2015 Presidential election and supported the then ruling PDP.

"Weighty allegations of embezzlement of our commonwealth, such as these ones are not what should be swept under the carpet," the group stated.

The Buhari support group also stated that it is a shame that the anti graft agency has not been able to arrest Mr Benedict Peters who is just hiding from prosecution in neighbouring West African country and also Mr Kola Aluko whose whereabouts is well known to the commission, saying all it takes is for EFCC to write a letter to INTERPOL for their arrest.

The Treasury Single Account(TSA) has been touted by many as an important instrument in the fight against corruption by the Federal Government. The idea behind it is to unify all government accounts across different banks into one single account so as to ensure smooth record-keeping, transparency and accountability. The TSA came from IMF recommendations to enable the efficient management and usage of government funds.

Fragmented systems of handling receipts and payments often lead to loopholes for inefficiency and corruption, making government lose funds in the process. Also, the proliferation of government bank accounts had made it difficult to track government funds and supervise their disbursement. Thus it was difficult for the Nigerian government to declare its financial status and establish its credit worthiness before international financial institutions.

It is said that the establishment of the TSA will stop the proliferation of government bank accounts, mop up all public funds from the banking system and promote healthy competition among the MDAs (Ministries, Departments, and Agencies). The TSA is operated by Remita, a technological innovation that channels all funds paid to all commercial and microfinance banks, all government ministries, departments and agencies into the TSA. Remita is a one-stop payment solution that has ensured the seamless flow of funds from all payment platforms into the government coffers and has made it easier to monitor revenue generation.

The TSA had been activated in Nigeria since 2012. However, it became imperative in September 2015, barely four months after swearing in the APC government. President Muhamadu Buhari ordered that all government revenue be paid into a single account held by the CBN. Bank compliance was fast. The following day, all banks checked the government accounts with them and emptied the funds therein into the TSA.

Presidential spokesman, Femi Adesina explained that all funds due to be paid to the government or its agencies should be deposited into the Treasury Single Account. Despite the initial difficulties in establishing the TSA, it has been met with optimism in many quarters. The Nigerian senate has lauded the initiative, with one lawmaker saying that full compliance with the directive would help in blocking leakages and ensure transparency, and another saying the development would enable banks, which hitherto relied majorly on MDAs, to become more resourceful. The Bankers committee declared support for the policy, almost as soon as it came out.

There have been a few arguments against the TSA due to the challenges arising from its adoption. Towards 2016, following presidential directives for banks to remit all public funds to the TSA, over 2 trillion Naira of public funds was suddenly moved out from banks. Due to the massive amount of cash that was suddenly withdrawn from the banking sector, there was no trading between banks for a while as there was no liquidity. One dealer told journalists that trading was currently going on because no bank was willing to put out quotes until there is a clearer direction with the implementation of the Treasury Single Account.

This led to disruption in the activities of the banks because liquidity was affected. Public funds make up roughly 10% of cash held by banks. With the loss of public funds, many banks were affected. Nevertheless, these were initial shocks that will gradually dissipate as more money flows into the system. The banks have improved their operations knowing they cannot rely on public funds to shore up their liquidity. Meanwhile, liquidity is gradually returning to the banking system. As banks increase their effort to make up for the loss in liquidity, the total amount of money in the system will increase because money will flow in to replace public funds that have been taken out.

Despite challenges associated with its adoption in Nigeria, the TSA has several benefits. It enables the efficient monitoring of the allocation of resources and generation of revenue. It is saving the CBN the headache of always mopping cash from banks due to the money lodged several bank accounts that have been overlooked. This will ultimately lead to reduction in government spending.

Furthermore, the adoption of the TSA will increase transparency within the MDAs and the government. The Remita platform has record keeping features that document all payments, therefore secret payments without the knowledge of the government would be impossible. Government can also easily monitor the money in its account at any given time. This will reduce the cases of trapped funds in unknown obscure accounts while government borrows money for other operations. TSA will also put a stop to the issue of some public officers secretly depositing public funds in the bank to yield some interest for them, at the expense of what the money was originally meant for.

Moreover, it will stimulate accurate reporting by the government and all MDAs. Some government revenue generating companies don’t even know how much money they have generated because they are operating several accounts. TSA focuses all revenue generation on a single platform with excellent record keeping activities so that government revenue can be easily calculated.

One sector in Nigeria that is showing pessimism to the TSA is Academics. Universities are saying that despite its benefits, it makes it difficult to access funds for research. The Association of Academic Staff Union of Universities(ASUU) complained that the TSA is blocking the access of lecturers to some international funds. This is because when these funds go into the TSA, it becomes difficult to access them urgently when they are needed. Nevertheless, the benefits of the policy for the educational system are much more than the initial difficulties faced in implementing it. With a little flexibility, the TSA will bring maximum benefits to the education sector. The National Universities Commission(NUC) has already advised universities in the country to key into the process.

The Remita-operated TSA will ensure that correct data is obtained on any project carried out in the universities. Statistics such as the number of staff, number of students, and total school fees paid will easily be determined.

Lastly, the TSA will make a huge impact on the private sector also, especially as it interfaces with the public sector. Today, government contractors are not being paid from the MDAs but directly from the CBN, with a transaction that leaves a trail of records. This will make it easier for contractors to receive their payments and ultimately fast track the ‘Ease of doing Business’ Initiative of the government. Despite its many challenges and loud antagonists, the TSA has come to stay.