GenBuhari:
The reason is because I am concerned that there is a looming crisis in Nigeria and it is to do with imminent collapse of crude oil prices and the likelihood that oil may become worthless forever. Since oil is the reason that is preventing Nigeria's break up, when oil becomes worthless, there would no reason for Nigeria to stay intact.

ndu_chucks: In a way, the effect of this zero demand for Nigeria's oil by the USA, is over exaggerated by the OP and others. The Chinese are more than ready to replace the US as the primary importer of Nigeria's oil.

If people are planning to breakup Nigeria anytime soon, they should be prepared to fight against the great Nigerian Armed forces and sophisticated Chinese weapons of war.

Dibiachukwu: Have anybody thought about this. Without oil money, northern Nigeria is almost useless to both china and USA. West would support North because they are interested in keeping the sons of CHUKWU down. China would support north too, because they are also interested in that. But where are these weapons going to come from. Who is going to pay for them? It is easier to destroy than to build. If Nigerians are wise, they would start gyrating towards regional/tribal autonomy. 67 style massacre would not lead to civil war in Alaigbo. It would lead to civil war in areas where these massacres occur! The hunter shall become the hunted.

Onlytruth: All I can do is laugh. I have always told Ndigbo to be ready to fight for their property wherever they may be in Nigeria. The OP is right only to the extent that Ndigbo would "pack their loads on their heads again and head East". I'm not so sure about that especially if Nigeria stays one. Now, a divided Nigeria is another matter.

In any case I've come to be a one Nigerianist to the core. I really think that Nigeria is tailor-made for Ndigbo by God himself.
All we need to do is cage Islamic extremism, or restructure the regions for greater autonomy. Methinks that even the North would realise that extreme Islam is not in its interest, and would eventually opt for Turkey styled Islam rather than Afghani styled one.

Whatever the case may be, Nigeria's destiny as the de facto leader of Africa and the black nations of the earth should be bolstered by smart folks.

ndu_chucks: In a way, the effect of this zero demand for Nigeria's oil by the USA, is over exaggerated by the OP and others. The Chinese are more than ready to replace the US as the primary importer of Nigeria's oil.

If people are planning to breakup Nigeria anytime soon, they should be prepared to fight against the great Nigerian Armed forces and sophisticated Chinese weapons of war.

saxywale:
I don't know how long it would take a tanker to navigate the high seas all the way from Nigeria to China. By the time we factor the distance and the fact that the Chinese would have to leave other oil producers in Europe and the middle east to come all the way to Africa. They would want our oil for a dirt cheap price.

saxywale:
I don't know how long it would take a tanker to navigate the high seas all the way from Nigeria to China. By the time we factor the distance and the fact that the Chinese would have to leave other oil producers in Europe and the middle east to come all the way to Africa. They would want our oil for a dirt cheap price.

thoth:

It does not work that way, a capitalist only thinks about the cost of Operations, and if that cost is more lesser than getting from middle east then they will go to the end of the world to get it. when hell breaks loose in Nigeria the government or anybody that is controlling the oil fields will be willing to sell oil at less than $20 per barrel as long as that guarantees inflow of weapons because he knows that attaining his goal depends on it, being alive depends on it, the moral of his soldiers depends on having enough good weapons and excess ammunitions , to make it worse those vampire nations will propose to whomever controls the oil fields deals they could make if he wins the war......then there you have a knot.

No capitalist Chinese or American would ignore the opportunity to make big bucks for little sweat.

ACM10:

Do you think that capitalists will side with non-indigene oil block owners over the indigenes in the event of war? Think again. The first move in the event of war will be land owners taking over their land. This will drive a dagger through the heart of the war effort by the present oil block owners. It's complicated.

GenBuhari: Many who know me on NL know that am fiercely anti-tribalist, so please understand that what I am about to say, is not in anyway intended raise tribal sentiments, but more of a recognition of the possible tribal reality on the ground.

I have been considering starting a thread advising Igbos to learn from events leading up to the declaration of Biafra in 1967, and to be prepared if such tribal violence /genocide may re-occur.

The reason is because I am concerned that there is a looming crisis in Nigeria and it is to do with imminent collapse of crude oil prices and the likelyhood that oil may become worthless forever. Since oil is the reason that is preventing Nigeria's break up, when oil becomes worthless, there would no reason for Nigeria to stay intact.

In the event that oil prices should crash tomorrow, Nigeria has no alternative source of income and no contingency plan, people may start to starve, riots may start and wholesale tribal violence may ensue.

Igbos should start planning for this eventuality and plan for safe evacuation of their lives , businesses and property from possible hostile regions of Nigeria in the event that massacres of Igbos break out.

The US predicted Nigeria would break-up by 2015, you may ask how can they be so sure?
Well I was shocked to learn that US are now self sufficient in oil and together with Saudi Arabia, they now have the capacity to control when the oil price crash occurs.

The US and Saudis are artificially keeping oil prices high whilst US oil companies quietly sell off all their oil blocks and repatriate their profits out of Nigeria.

I hope it does not ever come to such a crisis but it would be advisable for Igbos to start planning for safe evacuation should a crisis turn genocidal.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQTKrEjYy4

thoth:

The capitalist will work with anybody that Controls the oil fields, that is one silly mistake africans make. In congo they went for Mobutu and they funded him till he took over the oil fields, in Somalia they funded the Puntland regiments to take over the oil field, In angola they went for the guys that controled the oil Producing areas.

DURING THE NIGERIAN CIVIL WAR THEY WENT FOR THE GROUP THAT GURANTEES FREE FLOW OF OIL NOT THE PEOPLE THAT OWNS THE LAND OR EVEN THE PEOPLE THET ARE ON IT FOR ALMOST 18 MONTHS. Now what do you think ?

ACM10:

Two can play the game my dear. We are no more in the age of ignorance. Everybody is aware of factors that influence the international politics. The events you cited happened during the cold war era. The world has changed since then. The oil owners can give the superpowers a better deal if they play the politics well.

thoth:
there is something that is called Post-factor analysis. It is the analysis of a group and what they might become in the future if they achieve their aim. Believe before any capitalist nation or company engage you in such transaction they must have done a Pf on you in order to find out how useful you will still be after the war, believe me if they ever perceive one way or another that you will not continue to be exploited after the war, that you will not become a puppet state for them, that you will not allow them the total unhinged freedom to pillage you they will not choose to support you. Before you start thinking of how you might convince them let me inform you that is a Pf is done independent of what you said or promised and 80% of data used is gotten from events and general perception of the target group before the event(war) that instigated the need. So if a Pf is done for example on nigeria no south south or south east group will ever be supported since it is very unlikely that these groups will be stupid enough to allow themselves to exploited once they have achieved their goal, secondly the high unpredictability of these group also makes it a bad choice. It is all about business.

Lasinoh: Sooooooooooo. . . what will happen to the ones begging for contracts in ASO ROCK?
I mean the ones living in Kaduna and Lagos?
I mean the ones that REFUSE to go to BIAFRA or THE WEBSITE CALLED 'NIGERIAN-BIAFRA WORLD'?
I mean the ones that can't survive without NL. . . .


Wahala dey o!

Lasinoh: Sooooooooooo. . . what will happen to the ones begging for contracts in ASO ROCK?
I mean the ones living in Kaduna and Lagos?
I mean the ones that REFUSE to go to BIAFRA or THE WEBSITE CALLED 'NIGERIAN-BIAFRA WORLD'?
I mean the ones that can't survive without NL. . . .


Wahala dey o!

ACM10:

In the post 9-11 world. The so-called post factor analysis can never favour those that are predisposed or sympathizes with Islamic extremism. Superpowers are now cautious in dealing with such groups. The world has moved on from the age of ignorance and misconception. No superpower will support rabid extremists, who will only send suicide bombers to their country. They are wiser now. Moreover, they are well aware that the age of exploitation has gone. The event of '67 was possible because the mentality of colonialism was still prevalent which was rooted in exploitation. Everyone is wiser now. Equal partnership with mutual benefit is the rule of the game now.

ACM10:

In the post 9-11 world. The so-called post factor analysis can never favour those that are predisposed or sympathizes with Islamic extremism. Superpowers are now cautious in dealing with such groups. The world has moved on from the age of ignorance and misconception. No superpower will support rabid extremists, who will only send suicide bombers to their country. They are wiser now. Moreover, they are well aware that the age of exploitation has gone. The event of '67 was possible because the mentality of colonialism was still prevalent which was rooted in exploitation. Everyone is wiser now. Equal partnership with mutual benefit is the rule of the game now.