jmaine: They just gave GEJ an express ticket to the 2015 polls . . .

OneGuyLikeDat: I looool at this analysis, probably one of the weakest I've seen so far.
SW will never vote massively for GEJ, they voted for him in the last election because they thought he was "different" which he has proven not to be. They will prefer to pitch their tent under anybody APC drops because APC is in control and covering their faces with infrastructural development in the region.

SS and SE are going GEJ's way but with a formidable VP from APC, there can be a block vote from their.

The only thing that can stop a northerner from winning is if both PDM and APC present formidable northern candidates, that will divide north's vote. Both NE and NW will not vote for GEJ, just the same reason SS and SE will vote for GEJ.

so with a better analysis, SW+NE+NW go APC(or a northern candidate's way) while SS +SE+part of NC go GEJ's way. Where do you have the most population? NW and SW, now you see that what GEJ must do is ensure two formidable northern candidates emerge or else, its back to Otuoke.

seunlayi: [size=30pt] Atiku scored F9 in Political Mathematics[/size]

idonchop:


Source please

ckkris:

The EFFECT being that President Jonathan is now in full control of PDP STRUCTURES, to the effect that he will now get automatic ticket to contest for 2015 presidential election.
Another effect is that those boko haram governors better come back on all fours, or they become as politically irrelevant as Atiku. And they are too rebellious to join &submit under the dictatorship of Tinubu & Buhari PLC.

OneGuyLikeDat: I looool at this analysis, probably one of the weakest I've seen so far.
SW will never vote massively for GEJ, they voted for him in the last election because they thought he was "different" which he has proven not to be. They will prefer to pitch their tent under anybody APC drops because APC is in control and covering their faces with infrastructural development in the region.

SS and SE are going GEJ's way but with a formidable VP from APC, there can be a block vote from their.

The only thing that can stop a northerner from winning is if both PDM and APC present formidable northern candidates, that will divide north's vote. Both NE and NW will not vote for GEJ, just the same reason SS and SE will vote for GEJ.

so with a better analysis, SW+NE+NW go APC(or a northern candidate's way) while SS +SE+part of NC go GEJ's way. Where do you have the most population? NW and SW, now you see that what GEJ must do is ensure two formidable northern candidates emerge or else, its back to Otuoke.

X-factoria:


Your analysis is seriously flawed! You assumed that the bunch of South-Westerners found on Nairaland are the same with those who will vote in 2015. All the noise about South-Westerners sticking with APC only exists in Lagos among those whose opinions are swayed by the compromised media. Most of those who will vote do not read newspapers and have no access to the internet. I am from the South-West, there is nothing like block votes in the coming presidential election along party lines. People in the South-West do not see the presidential election as APC vs PDP, they see it as GEJ vs Buhari (assuming APC presents Buhari). You also forget the religion angle, the perception that APC is all about a grand islamic agenda. And if you know that the South-West is almost 50/50 muslim/christians, and the fact that many Yorubas (especially those who were adults during Buhari's tyrannical regime) know that they have never fared well under a hausa/fulani presidency, there is no way Jonathan will not have a decent showing. Lest you forget as well, South-Westerners do not take orders from Tinubu. At least Ondo State have proven that to be true.

Now lets talk about the performance of APC Governors in South-West. Anyone in his right senses know that APC is set to lose Ekiti State thanks to Fayemi's intolerance of the opposition both within and outside of the APC. In the last 6 months, scores of people in Ekiti State have lost their lives by the hands of Fayemi's thugs and much more are in the hospital nursing wounds inflicted on them by same people. Ekiti people will surprise APC in their next governorship election. In Ogun and Oyo States, debt profile have risen 200%. In the first quarter of this year, three out of the top five most indebted states in Nigeria are Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States, all under APC. Wait...just before you say they inherited the debts, PDP's Gbenga Daniel left a debt of approximately N49bn and APC's Senator Amosun has taken it to over N200bn today. Most of these borrowings have been pilfered away through inflated contract awards. Go check how much they are awarding contracts. Sensible people in the south-west know that these APC "Angels" are no better than their PDP predecessors. They steal with reckless abandon!

Lastly, you assume that all is well with APC as well. In my Ogun State for example, there are about three factions in the APC from the state level down to the LG wards; those loyal to the Governor, those loyal to former Governor Segun Osoba and those who take order directly from Tinubu. I am sure that APC will not succeed in placating all aggrieved members before the general elections. So they are as much vulnerable as PDP.

busy mouth: PLEASE UR ANALYSES MUST HAVE BEEN DONE IN THE DARK....SOME OF THOSE GOVERNORS THAT REMAINED AT THE PDP CONVENTION DID THAT COS THEY ARE STILL WATCHING...UP UNTIL 2015 YOU CAN NOT SAY FOR SURE WHO WOULD VOTE FOR WHO....AND PLEASE NIGERIANS ARE INDEED TIRED OF GEJ...SENTIMENTS APART,HE IS THE WORST PRESIDENT THE COUNTRY'S EVER BEEN CURSED WITH...HE WAS NOT THERE WHEN THE PARTY WAS FORMED AND YET HE CAME TO MESS IT UP....HE WOULD PAY ON EARTH BEFORE HE MEETS HIS MAKER..

GraphicsPlus:
Already, GEJ's men are in full control of five out of the six geo-political zones. The North-East for now is the zone yet to be occupied by GEJ's political network. Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe and part of Adamawa states of the North-East are in GEJ's safe hands. In Katsina and Kaduna of the North-West the fresh air is still full blown. While Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara are opposition's stronghold, though of no much import as GEJ emerged without them in 2011.

The South-West states certainly have no strong interest at the centre. The guys there are contented with the control of the regional states and will of course repeat their 2011 miracle for GEJ.

X-factoria:


Your analysis is seriously flawed! You assumed that the bunch of South-Westerners found on Nairaland are the same with those who will vote in 2015. All the noise about South-Westerners sticking with APC only exists in Lagos among those whose opinions are swayed by the compromised media. Most of those who will vote do not read newspapers and have no access to the internet. I am from the South-West, there is nothing like block votes in the coming presidential election along party lines. People in the South-West do not see the presidential election as APC vs PDP, they see it as GEJ vs Buhari (assuming APC presents Buhari). You also forget the religion angle, the perception that APC is all about a grand islamic agenda. And if you know that the South-West is almost 50/50 muslim/christians, and the fact that many Yorubas (especially those who were adults during Buhari's tyrannical regime) know that they have never fared well under a hausa/fulani presidency, there is no way Jonathan will not have a decent showing. Lest you forget as well, South-Westerners do not take orders from Tinubu. At least Ondo State have proven that to be true.

Now lets talk about the performance of APC Governors in South-West. Anyone in his right senses know that APC is set to lose Ekiti State thanks to Fayemi's intolerance of the opposition both within and outside of the APC. In the last 6 months, scores of people in Ekiti State have lost their lives by the hands of Fayemi's thugs and much more are in the hospital nursing wounds inflicted on them by same people. Ekiti people will surprise APC in their next governorship election. In Ogun and Oyo States, debt profile have risen 200%. In the first quarter of this year, three out of the top five most indebted states in Nigeria are Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States, all under APC. Wait...just before you say they inherited the debts, PDP's Gbenga Daniel left a debt of approximately N49bn and APC's Senator Amosun has taken it to over N200bn today. Most of these borrowings have been pilfered away through inflated contract awards. Go check how much they are awarding contracts. Sensible people in the south-west know that these APC "Angels" are no better than their PDP predecessors. They steal with reckless abandon!

Lastly, you assume that all is well with APC as well. In my Ogun State for example, there are about three factions in the APC from the state level down to the LG wards; those loyal to the Governor, those loyal to former Governor Segun Osoba and those who take order directly from Tinubu. I am sure that APC will not succeed in placating all aggrieved members before the general elections. So they are as much vulnerable as PDP.

seunlayi: [size=30pt] Atiku scored F9 in Political Mathematics[/size]

ckkris:

The EFFECT being that President Jonathan is now in full control of PDP STRUCTURES, to the effect that he will now get automatic ticket to contest for 2015 presidential election.
Another effect is that those boko haram governors better come back on all fours, or they become as politically irrelevant as Atiku. And they are too rebellious to join &submit under the dictatorship of Tinubu & Buhari PLC.

simpleseyi:

Is the comparism of Atiku Abubakar and Bianca Ojukwu reasonable?

Billyonaire: A closer look at the Atiku Boys indicated that none of them wore the PDP regalia, meaning they planned that factionalization which failed. Let me add that the registration of PDM was supposed to lead to defection of the Anti-GEJ PDP Governors, but I guess someone briefed them that declaring for PDM will mean automatic forfeiture of the PDP mandate that they hold as Governors, which will lead to removal from office to EFCC net.

So, they decide to try their luck with factionalization, hoping that PDP will expel them, which will tantamount to holding the mandate and fighting from within, but PDP WILL NOT expel them, they will remain outlaws till 2015 is over except they kneel and beg.

Now, GEJ has fully taken over the party machinery, let me add to your permutation that 45% of 21 million strong Lagosians are Igbos and mostly of voting age, so trust me, GEJ is taking Lagos Votes and by extension the SW considering the numbers.
No my friend, you got it wrong. You don't just write off 7 states governor out of your political permutation like that.

This was a very wrong move, and always, from people opposing the silent and humble president. Cos they always posses the luxury of mistakes - an act of god.

Let me add that the bank of justice can never go bankrupt, Amaechi will reap what he is sowing.

Nashville:

You will just waste your time typing rubbish. The SW voted GEJ because the ACN did not present a real alternative. The only state where ACN mobilised for Ribadu actually went to Ribadu - Osun state. So please stop posting rubbish. The market men and women in the SW are firmly in the hands of ACN so GEJ just does not stand a chance. There are no solid PDP members in the SW anymore. Secondly you talk about the Igbo vote. Unfortunately the Igbo in Lagos are much more civilised and enlightened than their brothers in the village so most of them will vote ACN. This same people voted Fashola and they are enjoying the benefits of living in Lagos. They will vote Fashola again if his name appears on the ballot. GEJ should forget about the South West.

GraphicsPlus: Atiku and 7 governors walked out of the PDP national convention to shoot themselves at the feet at Shehu Yaradua Centre in a bid to factionalize PDP. But what Atiku and his boys did not know is that their action is an express cruise to victory for Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan(GCFR).

It is no news that at the Special Convention of the PDP yesterday, the Turaki of Adamawa, Nigeria's former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar apparently sensed the obvious failure to secure his political interests in the convention, quickly made an eye contact and body signs to his boys, the dissident governors and co, and the result was an immediate walk-out in watery protest that resulted in forming a purported new PDP. This inglorious exit was certainly insignificant as the mammoth crowd remained same; indicating their poor followership in the party.

I have studied and analyzed this infamous move of Atiku and his boys and considered the event and possible resultant effects. By this, I see the birth of infamous 'new PDP' as clear signs of GEJ's shortest cut to Aso Rock unhindered. It is totally clear that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the nation's electoral umpire will NEVER recognize 'the new PDP' and its leadership making it impossible to field-in candidate in 2015 election. Again, with Atiku as leader with presidential ambition under this unpopular platform, and if it later leads to Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM chaired by one of Atiku's aides, which will actually be the end of the road that leads to nowhere near presidential villa come 2015. In the other hand, the major opposition to the GEJ's and PDP, All Progressives Congress, APC is already in internal squabbles over who flies the party's flag in the 2015 presidential election. In this case, the old trojan horse, the 'professional' presidential candidate of all seasons, Gen. Mohammed Buhari and others of northern extraction are already on ground to tear the zone (North) in pieces to the advantage of PDP.

Already, GEJ's men are in full control of five out of the six geo-political zones. The North-East for now is the zone yet to be occupied by GEJ's political network. Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe and part of Adamawa states of the North-East are in GEJ's safe hands. In Katsina and Kaduna of the North-West the fresh air is still full blown. While Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara are opposition's stronghold, though of no much import as GEJ emerged without them in 2011.

North-Central for sure is GEJ compliant with Kogi, Plateau, Benue states, and Abuja FCT, leaving Nasarawa to its fate while Kwara and Niger states are still indecisive. For South-South and South-East zones, they will always remain GEJ's indisputable fertile ground and ever untouchable by the anti-GEJ. The South-West states certainly have no strong interest at the centre. The guys there are contented with the control of the regional states and will of course repeat their 2011 miracle for GEJ.

This position is logically and objectively x-rayed.

Atiku has just made the greatest mistake in his political career by trying to factionalize PDP. He has failed to understand that what this means for him and his governor boys is that they are sitting on the fence.

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President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR) is the best president Nigeria has ever had. Sentiments apart. But do you notice how INEC is freely exercising their duties independently without GEJ interfering? If it were OBJ, who is a judge to rule and order PDP and INEC to recognize Andy Uba as the authentic governorship candidate for Anambra gubernatorial when the National secretariat which is under the president favours another candidate? Goodluck Jonathan is an evangelist of rule of law. We must forget sentiments, religion and tribalism and throw our weights behind him come 2015.

God bless Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR)!
God bless Federal Republic of Nigeria!