De Noble: Who is this person?

That is the truth! His bad advisers have brought more harm than good to him.

GEJ should forget about the south-west.

It's a bad deal

SUBSCRBING

Atiku and the seven governors trumped GEJ, they were not gonna be used as arrangees, GEJ already had an express ticket but he needed them to make it look legitimate and that is why I applaud the walk-out, it was a master piece. GEJ has issues to grind with the masses for the punishment he rendered people on January 2012 with fuel increase and how he handled protesters, he will answer them come 2015 when the masses vote him out. OBJ is in line with the fractional parties, if GEJ believes OBJ caught a cold, then he is a mugu. Everyone is mad at GEJ he has taken all the wrong steps since he came to power, this is a man who has done nothing to affect the lives of Nigerians, yet he wants to jump to 2015 when we are still in 2013. He should finish his exams and allow Nigerians award him his score card to determine if he should repeat or be dismissed for failing.

Not convinced you are not paid to write this.

Clearly most of the responses here have been skewed. The OP is CLEARLY pro-PDP, pro-GEJ and most likely one of the numerous voltrons working for PDP on social media. Let me clearly and simply state my contributions here:

1. Only a political baby will think the exit of Atiku (with his deep pedigree in Nigerian politics)as well as key stakeholders such as Amaechi, Aliyu Babangida, Kwakwaso, Sule Lamido from an already strained PDP is of no significance. They didn't leave to join APC, PDM or any other party but form a parallel faction. That was a ploy to cause disunity in the party and trust me some more people will leave.

2. I am both on the street as much as I'm online. The average Nigeria is definitely not happy. Clearly paid voltrons and political mercenaries are, but the tens of millions of Nigerians we convinced to vote for GEJ are not happy. The North is worse than it was, the South West is not any better and the South South are equally against him. He has done very little compared to the resources he had.

3. There are unconfirmed rumuors even within the PDP that the new faction has 14 governors and they intentionally got only 7 of the bravest and strongest to leave. Did you ever think Ahmed of Kwara (and definitely Bukola Saraki in the Senate) would be against GEJ? If you add 14 to the 11 in APC, you're left with only 11 'true' PDP governors and that means there will be some strain on resources for 2015.

4. The North still feels they should be President. Tukur is not a leading Northern figure and rooting for GEJ means going against the wish of his people. Someone here mentioned Kaduna and I laughed. Have you heard of the camel going though the eye of a needle? North-Central was the surest for him before now in the North, but not with Aliyu-Babangida of Niger and Ahmed of Kwara.

5. Most of the governors think they are as qualified as GEJ to be President. In fact, most feel they are more qualified and do not feel they NEED to support his personal ambitions.

6. The people that should be GEJ's pillars are against him. OBJ wanted Andy Ubah in Anambra at all cost, but that's not going to happen. Same as the Yoruba's in PDP, who feel they are worse off with him as President. He is surrounded by weak, old political dead woods who are better off in the village drinking palm wine.

7. It will be very difficult to ring in 2015, except in some remote local governments in Bayelsa, praying GEJ and Seriake don't fall out. Many people (even women) are now aware and I'm not talking of social media ooo. People eye don tear.

8. APC is currently shopping for a candidate. Some sources say they are looking for a Northern Muslim from North Central or North East. They have approached the billionaire T. Y. Danjuma but his health won't allow him. If they get someone with track records of good performance, it will be difficult to beat him in the South West (with APC boyz), South-South (with Amaechi against GEJ), North-East (don't even go there at all), North-West (Sambo is not as popular as even Shekarau), South-East will be GEJ's strong-hold.

Did you know that base on the reality on ground now, impeaching GEJ is now easy!!!

this guy ignorantly underestimates the southwest

GraphicsPlus:

I have studied and analyzed this infamous move of Atiku and his boys and considered the event and possible resultant effects. By this, I see the birth of infamous 'new PDP' as clear signs of GEJ's shortest cut to Aso Rock unhindered. It is totally clear that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the nation's electoral umpire will NEVER recognize 'the new PDP' and its leadership making it impossible to field-in candidate in 2015 election. Again, with Atiku as leader with presidential ambition under this unpopular platform, and if it later leads to Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM chaired by one of Atiku's aides, which will actually be the end of the road that leads to nowhere near presidential villa come 2015. In the other hand, the major opposition to the GEJ's and PDP, All Progressives Congress, APC is already in internal squabbles over who flies the party's flag in the 2015 presidential election. In this case, the old trojan horse, the 'professional' presidential candidate of all seasons, Gen. Mohammed Buhari and others of northern extraction are already on ground to tear the zone (North) in pieces to the advantage of PDP.



Atiku has just made the greatest mistake in his political career by trying to factionalize PDP. He has failed to understand that what this means for him and his governor boys is that they are sitting on the fence.

u forgot that it can be dangerous for a party to have faction. when both produces a flag bearer, which of them will inec accept. only the court can decide and u know how long it takes for the court to decide in nigeria. even when the court decides the unfavoured faction can appeal until it gets to supreme court. so a fictionalized party may end up not producing a candidate.

Ufeolorun: The same miscalculation and simplistic assessment of issues that's made a sitting president the laughing stock of those who pay attention to details.
Well,
you lot should keep throwing around base less figures in the face of stark political reality however,there has to be
a change of trajectory so back water politicians can go back home and stop acting out of league .
Nigeria is on the floor already and we need not fear a any further plunge,I pray so.

ur piece was brilliant! D words in bold says it all.

abu12: @op this is first time a ruling party will have a faction at national level, pray for GEJ to complete his tenure, because he might be the first president to be impeach by national assembly if it won't lead to the end of nigeria as a country, because GEJ party will endup been the minority.
I trust tambulwa the speaker and david mark is a trickish man.

na u go impeach d president.

Billyonaire: A closer look at the Atiku Boys indicated that none of them wore the PDP regalia, meaning they planned that factionalization which failed. Let me add that the registration of PDM was supposed to lead to defection of the Anti-GEJ PDP Governors, but I guess someone briefed them that declaring for PDM will mean automatic forfeiture of the PDP mandate that they hold as Governors, which will lead to removal from office to EFCC net.

So, they decide to try their luck with factionalization, hoping that PDP will expel them, which will tantamount to holding the mandate and fighting from within, but PDP WILL NOT expel them, they will remain outlaws till 2015 is over except they kneel and beg.

Now, GEJ has fully taken over the party machinery, let me add to your permutation that 45% of 21 million strong Lagosians are Igbos and mostly of voting age, so trust me, GEJ is taking Lagos Votes and by extension the SW considering the numbers.

You have been spewing the above bolded line in your posts recently. Is it that you do not read and therefore do not know about the Supreme Court judgement as regards Atiku when he joined another party?

Please read it up. Only National Assembly members will lose their seats upon defection to another party.

@ op thunder fire you

hardywaltz: Why are u guys worried now? Tym will tell.
In ur analysis u forgot to mention the pending battle for the control of National Assembly in the coming days, incase u forgot the Apc + New Pdp NA members are enuff to effect a change in the leadership of NA (unless the Almighty-Jang formula is applied).
The New PDP has a lot up their sleeves I just pity that kintagerteen/trainee president

It is foolhardy to say that Wamako, Sule Lamido, Babangida Aliyu, Kwankwoso, Amaechi and Bukola Saraki are weaklings in PDP, @op, now tell me the support base of Jona if he has lost the core north and south west even before election. Note also that he cannot win in Edo and Rivers, right in his own south south GPZ if elections are conducted right now, you dont seem to know that these so called dissidents are out to allign with APC for a mother of all battles in 2015, you better advise the spin doctors of your paymaster to start restrategising instead of cutting and pasting an unfounded analysis on nairaland, you will be surprised....

Your write up is inadequate, let wait and see the out come of the game. Please, don`t jump the gun.

@OP
I don't know where you got your analysis from.There is something called NUISANCE VALUE.If these governors are trully serious on defecting he had better watch it,because more northern governors may follow. The new faction has all the momentum right now. If anything he can't be sleeping with all his eyes closed.

Why is GEJ suddently romancing OBJ? I thought he had anenih,clark and all the power brokers? GEJ a political neophyte who will engage in needless battles and dump his allies at will. Even Asari warned him to stop stepping on the wrong toes.

All these wouldn't have mattered if GEJ is a performer. The Nigerian masses would have been his strong hold. But if it comes to the games of tribal politics he should watch it,history shows that when the North and SW align its always a touchdown.

He should go back to the drawing board, seek settlements and put his wife on the leash. That woman is attracting more enemies than friends. He shouldn't seek automatic ticket,let there be primary. There is nothing to be afraid of.

I agree to this. Goodluck Jonathan for 2015. Just in 3 yrs of ternure He have achieve 70% of his transformation agenda

anuoro: I agree to this. Goodluck Jonathan for 2015. Just in 3 yrs of ternure He have achieve 70% of his transformation agenda

Chai? Which one has he achieved? No be same country we dey? What exactly?

Though is very unfortunate that our leader will continue to get ride upon us with some nursery school analysis that I was reading in this thread, so much shameful and painful that some DUMPS come to NL everyday to be in support of this clueless GEJ to be their president in 4 more year to come after 2015

Pls can any of this bastards nigeria who support GEJ point out to one physical achievement of this foolish president that lack wisdom to guide a Nation or they should point out to one of their state ware life was cheap to live,

I fill to cry while reading all this trash that some idiot are saying on this thread imagine some ppl still in support of GEJ while he fail to deliver any of his 2011 promise to this Nation but only for him to put us into much Hardship than anybody ever done in 01/1/2012

Anyway I will like to ask all this SE and SS that how much are u ppl buying fuel in that ur cave? was it the same #97/ Litre we buy from SW? Pls give the real answer or is there any state in ur SE or SS that enjoy light than ppl of SW or is there any state in this SE or SS that witness massive development like Lagos or is there any Business state is this area that can compete with Lagos or Kano

Anyway we SW do not appeal to none of u ppl not to vote inn GEJ come in 2015, but don't take LAGOS as ur FCT, go to ABJ and do ur business since any state that become FCT was no man's Land just like u all fools claim on lagos, its ppl that bear the hardest part of this problem cos all Governor of SW are competing to make their state look like Lagos and they are working toward that

Those against GEJ,where did he go wrong.

As a matter of fact, this opinion/thread is the foolishest (pardon my french) one i've ever seen on nairaland....we understand you are an apologist but must you rub it in our face?..GEJ is going down and i sincerely pray and hope you see this thread in 2015 and see how insincere (apologies to insincere9jerian) your opinions were.
Do have a rough night since you still belong to the camp of the bastards attempting to foist the clueless one on us.
P.S I really have strong opinions as per who gets Nigeria out of the doldrums...no hard feelings

i pity you op for ur wrong mis calculations,if i may askm you a question,why did gej run to meet with obj,where is foolish abanti and the old haggard attack dog,obj is a trick man and remember he met with those governors pleadin on gej behalf,he know all what will happen that is why obj factor will not be taken away ,dont forget oyinlola is obj man,baraje is obj man.so gej has many problem to tackle,and the best for him his to forget about 2015 because,he is surrounded by negatives in political calculation.

jmaine: They just gave GEJ an express ticket to the 2015 polls . . .

So why is he begging them? Keep deceiving yourself.

baynix: DAYUMMMMMMN!!! Those Ppl That Liked OP's Assss Are Morafuckerz!!

are u jealous because he has a lot of likes. If to say you be politician, u for become atiku.

There will be no new PDP but PDM

hillsate: The 6 Governors forming the new PDP are seasoned politicians.
Remember they were thesame Govs meeting prominent Nigerians in the name of reconciliation.
You think they were doing reconciliation? These guys were purely scheming.
Their working out of that PDP convention was planned well ahead of time and it was for effect.

They were thesame Govs who played the Jang card and left him hanging.
Out of the 23 states controlled by OLD PDP, 7 have been lost leaving them with 16 states.
All these was done to prove to GEJ that 2015 is not uhuru for him

Desperate, frustrated politicians. They have nothing meaningful to offer.

PDP gets a NEW PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE!!!

GEJ is OUT!!!!

Where are the GHANA MUST GO BAGS !!!

Like OBJ, LIKE GEJ! Time to CHOP YOUR MONEY!!!!


Third Term Agenda don FAIL AGAIN!!!!!


Mu Che Che Che Che Che

The giant party has reach the climax level, its now time to retardate.let's see the fall of the elephant.

Its interestingly funny seeing so many permutations and 2015 election results. But what do these selfish renegade faction have to offer that will be better than what we have been experiencing via the same party? So who's fooling who?

Unfortunately Gej surrounded himself with wrong set of aides/handlers/advisers that are too selfish to understand the 'GAME' of 'POWER' and 'STRATEGY' hence the situation he finds himself now. He needs to allign faster with the masses via performance.

Let me continue reading one of my best books:

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles... if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle".

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer."

:--Sun-tzu **The Art of War

LOL, no longer 40 laptops, we are now cruising at a wholesome 90.

Power to the people...who have stolen power.

Akainzo:

You have been spewing the above bolded line in your posts recently. Is it that you do not read and therefore do not know about the Supreme Court judgement as regards Atiku when he joined another party?

Please read it up. Only National Assembly members will lose their seats upon defection to another party.

You are wrong, as always. The PDP by-laws specifically states that. I am a member of the PDP and I am sure you are not. So this issue is a PDP issue and the by-laws are binding on all PDP members and is not the jurisdiction of National Assembly to handle this issue.

Steer clear politics if you have no party of affiliation, you non-party commentators cause more problems than politicians themselves.

I don't care whether the OP's analysis is right,wrong,wacked or baseless,what I know and believe is that majority of nigerians are tired of PDP clueless rule of 16years.let's experiment with another party please.haha!wasted years.

anuoro: I agree to this. Goodluck Jonathan for 2015. Just in 3 yrs of ternure He have achieve 70% of his transformation agenda

you are a filthy dreamer, doubt if you know what you are saying