oke_chukwu: Those against GEJ,where did he go wrong.

icon8:

What else would you expect from a supposed political analyst who doesn't know the difference between "fAction" and "fIction".
According to the OP, PDP has been "fictionalised"

wwwkaycom:
everywhere. The man was never prepared to be president, he is now using Nigeria as a junior school laboratory where he is doing trial and error experiments, his wife is the worst enemy of his ambition, senceless woman...

Nashville:

I was reading through your trash until I saw the above part. Do you really think the NW and SW will vote GEJ? You must be delusional and suffering from phastosmagoria. GEJ only has the SS and SE locked up (and even then Edo, Rivers and Imo are questionable). He also has most of North Central. But NW, NE and SW are fully out of his control. He never even controlled NW and NE in 2011 anyway. SW is fully out of his hands now and even Kwara may not vote GEJ.

Nashville:

I was reading through your trash until I saw the above part. Do you really think the NW and SW will vote GEJ? You must be delusional and suffering from phastosmagoria. GEJ only has the SS and SE locked up (and even then Edo, Rivers and Imo are questionable). He also has most of North Central. But NW, NE and SW are fully out of his control. He never even controlled NW and NE in 2011 anyway. SW is fully out of his hands now and even Kwara may not vote GEJ.

Billyonaire: Now, GEJ has fully taken over the party machinery, let me add to your permutation that 45% of 21 million strong Lagosians are Igbos and mostly of voting age, so trust me, GEJ is taking Lagos Votes and by extension the SW considering ...

figment232: But they re nw sitting on d fence,INEC wud nt recognise them n they wont have any say in PDP infact they re in no man's land as it is now.The only tenable option 4dem nw is to leave PDP.

hardywaltz: Why are u guys worried now? Tym will tell.
In ur analysis u forgot to mention the pending battle for the control of National Assembly in the coming days, incase u forgot the Apc + New Pdp NA members are enuff to effect a change in the leadership of NA (unless the Almighty-Jang formula is applied).
The New PDP has a lot up their sleeves I just pity that kintagerteen/trainee president

loverboi: I wonder why you'll just sit down at the corner of your room and analyse what u hear from ur street, coz am very sure u're from south-south area or igbo as ur cas maybe.
This analysis is not only furtile, its baseless.
And u made the biggest mistake by calling jonathan the best president Nigeria have ever had, coz even if u'r deaf to hear what's going on in town, u shouldn't be blind to read articles online.

First of all, we don't need any1 to tell us, jonathan is the most cursed/insulted leader in the world, he's d biggest mistake in history of this nation, am not saying he's d cause but he's bearing all the wrought of all the bad foundations previous leaders has done!

In the last election, am very sure u knw all nigerians wanted him to be there, not minding the party or tribe he's from, people thought he's gentle and kind hearted, but never knew he was a snake under the green grass.
To be realistic with ourselves, 90 percent of dose who voted for jonathan will not do so in 2015 if he contest except the election is altered!

Tell me one sector of the economy that is working or that has improved since his inception, the only tin he talks about is POWER, and if u read newspapers lately, u'l find out that megawatts are been lost dailyand its clear not everywhere enjoys it.
Education, health, agriculture, employment has been in a state of steady decline since he has assumed office.

Now back to the topic, its not about the number of people that leave, but their political strength, I'l tell u categorically here that, these northern govs of this new faction are more powerfull and politically relevant than the others, wen we talk of their state population.
NIGER, KWARA and KANO states are among the most populated states in the north.
And taking NIGER where I base for instance, ALIYU BABANGIDA is loved by everybody, he dosent have any rival whatsoever politically, he's fully incharge, even KWARA and KANO too.

Now, don't tell me u'r not aware that obasanjo may be invoulved in this, coz he has annointed KWANKASO/AMEACHI ticket, if that is true then u'l b suprised at the end of the day that d jonathan group will be d one to call for settlement if obasanjo publicly declare support for the faction.

Also bear in mind that OBASANJO annointed OLAGUNSOYE OYINLOLA as secretary to PDP before he was removed by the court of law, and this same man is d new factional secreatary

So my brother this divided house of PDP would only give APC upper hand if they are united.

anuoro: I agree to this. Goodluck Jonathan for 2015. Just in 3 yrs of ternure He have achieve 70% of his transformation agenda

GraphicsPlus: Atiku and 7 governors walked out of the PDP national convention to shoot themselves at the feet at Shehu Yaradua Centre in a bid to factionalize PDP. But what Atiku and his boys did not know is that their action is an express cruise to victory for Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan(GCFR).

It is no news that at the Special Convention of the PDP yesterday, the Turaki of Adamawa, Nigeria's former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar apparently sensed the obvious failure to secure his political interests in the convention, quickly made an eye contact and body signs to his boys, the dissident governors and co, and the result was an immediate walk-out in watery protest that resulted in forming a purported new PDP. This inglorious exit was certainly insignificant as the mammoth crowd remained same; indicating their poor followership in the party.

I have studied and analyzed this infamous move of Atiku and his boys and considered the event and possible resultant effects. By this, I see the birth of infamous 'new PDP' as clear signs of GEJ's shortest cut to Aso Rock unhindered. It is totally clear that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the nation's electoral umpire will NEVER recognize 'the new PDP' and its leadership making it impossible to field-in candidate in 2015 election. Again, with Atiku as leader with presidential ambition under this unpopular platform, and if it later leads to Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM chaired by one of Atiku's aides, which will actually be the end of the road that leads to nowhere near presidential villa come 2015. In the other hand, the major opposition to the GEJ's and PDP, All Progressives Congress, APC is already in internal squabbles over who flies the party's flag in the 2015 presidential election. In this case, the old trojan horse, the 'professional' presidential candidate of all seasons, Gen. Mohammed Buhari and others of northern extraction are already on ground to tear the zone (North) in pieces to the advantage of PDP.

Already, GEJ's men are in full control of five out of the six geo-political zones. The North-East for now is the zone yet to be occupied by GEJ's political network. Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe and part of Adamawa states of the North-East are in GEJ's safe hands. In Katsina and Kaduna of the North-West the fresh air is still full blown. While Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara are opposition's stronghold, though of no much import as GEJ emerged without them in 2011.

North-Central for sure is GEJ compliant with Kogi, Plateau, Benue states, and Abuja FCT, leaving Nasarawa to its fate while Kwara and Niger states are still indecisive. For South-South and South-East zones, they will always remain GEJ's indisputable fertile ground and ever untouchable by the anti-GEJ. The South-West states certainly have no strong interest at the centre. The guys there are contented with the control of the regional states and will of course repeat their 2011 miracle for GEJ.

This position is logically and objectively x-rayed.

Atiku has just made the greatest mistake in his political career by trying to factionalize PDP. He has failed to understand that what this means for him and his governor boys is that they are sitting on the fence.

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President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR) is the best president Nigeria has ever had. Sentiments apart. But do you notice how INEC is freely exercising their duties independently without GEJ interfering? If it were OBJ, who is a judge to rule and order PDP and INEC to recognize Andy Uba as the authentic governorship candidate for Anambra gubernatorial when the National secretariat which is under the president favours another candidate? Goodluck Jonathan is an evangelist of rule of law. We must forget sentiments, religion and tribalism and throw our weights behind him come 2015.

God bless Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR)!
God bless Federal Republic of Nigeria!

wwwkaycom:
It is foolhardy to say that Wamako, Sule Lamido, Babangida Aliyu, Kwankwoso, Amaechi and Bukola Saraki are weaklings in PDP, @op, now tell me the support base of Jona if he has lost the core north and south west even before election. Note also that he cannot win in Edo and Rivers, right in his own south south GPZ if elections are conducted right now, you dont seem to know that these so called dissidents are out to allign with APC for a mother of all battles in 2015, you better advise the spin doctors of your paymaster to start restrategising instead of cutting and pasting an unfounded analysis on nairaland, you will be surprised....

Solarpower: have u askd ursf ds questn? 1. Is d whole of lagos state whch harbours close to 50% of the SW populatn 'all Yorubas'? Ans, 'neva-the ibos and other tribes in lagos,ogun and ibadan (esp lagos) whch r by far the mst populated SW states wil go 4 GEJ. 2. Are the cities of kano and kaduna predominantly hausas? Ans. ,.yes....but the southern populatn in these two states r enuf to giv GEJ close to 35% votes,esp the igbos. 3.Are GEJ's foot soldiers nt goin2 get even a vote in dia respctiv NW/NE states? Ans,..an EMPHATIC NO. They'l secure @least mre than 25% of d votes. 4. Has GEJ lost his grip on Rivers state? Ans......No..infact he has 100% control cuz the state PDP chairman,the state police commsner and d REC(residnt electral commsner) r al his pple. 4. Will Imo and Edo states vote GEJ? Ans.....Yes,yes and yes....reasons..In Edo, Oshiomole wil return d gesture of allowng him to bcum govnor 4rm d court(@least wt a 50.50 split of d votes). In Imo, the state is divided. Jst an insignificnt factn of Rochas' APGA r al wt him. The Igbos of Imo cant bow to Western/Northern rule. Infact the states of Ondo,Imo and Edo wil vote GEJ back cum 2015 in order to stl hav deir bulky cut 4rm d fedratn's acct as per 'oil producng states'. Its no news d@ d northern govnors r agitatng 4 a slash in the allocatn of funds to oil producng states. This sentiment wil also b brough in2 play and these 3 states wil vote GEJ embloc. Watch and see.

Isiterere: Could this be called a good analysis ?
Absolutely No, cos op is lazy and not in tune with reality as they continue to unfold .
All your permutation is just a wishful thinking.
Only PDP (People Doing Punches ) can pay for this kind shallow analysis .

Ugoh11: I am utterly amazed at the level of reasonin on ds thread of wot wud b nigerians youth...i expect dat in all ur analysis it wud have bin more objectv dan subjectv...
1,i hear some pips say if ibos vote in for GEJ he is assured,my questn is r d ibos fairin any betr undr ds regime..we have d highest cutoff marks at both secondary nd tertiary level to gain admission dan any other tribe..ibos r d mediocres in civil service structures with most of them at low to mid levels..our states have not fared any betr from d federal point of view....except if d enugu intl airport is wot u feel is wot we deserv aftr 3budget cycles
2, our educatn sectr nd health sector has more or less dwindled under GEJ...with d ministr o state for educTn leavin hs duty post to fite a gov hu in every respect has done well for hs people..
3..lastly my people dr r over 40million youths without jobs out of whch 23million have tertiary education..
4..our foreign reserves r depletin wen crude oil prices r increasin nd d bkip tellin us our GDP is risin... Well if u must knw.. Our GDP is more of a reflectn of d growth of one biz man..Aliko Dangote not an expressn of GROWTH as d wuf have us bliv
IN ALL of ds wot am i sayin... I expect us as learned individuals to look byound etnicity nd phony politics to actualy concisely examinin d situatn with a view to holdin our present leaders responsible or support one with credibility nd vision cos evidently GEJ lacks One