[quote author=klas]Nigeria suddenly become the largest economy in Africa overnight by the stroke of pen of who again? ....Nigerian Bureau of Statistics- a federal government agency. What stops South African Statistics Bureau from rebasing its GDP tomorrow to make South Africa have triple the Nigeria's GDP?[/quote
If you are a nigerian,u should be flogged

bigger economy does not mean better country. is India better then Netherlands?

TerryCarr: bigger economy does not mean better country. is India better then Netherlands?

We know.

rudedough:

Exactly because of the Free-for-all mentality Nigerians have. And you yourself advocate for Free / Cheap university tuition fee so please don't talk like a saint here cos the "recurrent expenditure" you're talking about includes lecturer's salaries and allowances, utility bills and also non academic staff salaries etc.

You're not a saint Sir, you're one of the problem of Nigeria.

I think you've got some warped arguments in there, you know.

If you think that paying for free university education isn't necessary in a country with exceptionally low incomes and educational attainment, you're mad.

There's nothing wrong with recurrent expenditure topping the expenditure, per sé it's more the problem with where in Nigeria it goes: a huge amount goes to politicians in wages (far more than almost any developed western country), even more goes to politicians and civil servants in embezzlement and theft... And there is very little left over to do anything of any value.

Nigeria's infrastructure is in desperate need of investment, particularly in terms of electricity, roads and education, and until the country is developed enough to make enough to spend.

@AllNigeria
IT IS A PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE THAT "SOUTH AFRICANS" HAVE ARRIVED ON THIS. Hope the "Moderator won't be sissy this time and CLOSE THE THREAD EARLY". WARNING: We are NOT SCARED OF INSULTS AND HATE. AS "WE WILL GIVE BACK AT YA".

@Naaigerians
VILLAGE BOYS UR BLOGGING OVER ATUANYA OPINION ON GDP. What u dummies didn't notice is his lie about SA's GDP at $370 billion

I THINK NIGERIA GOVERNMENT HAS NOTICED THAT YOUR OIL IS DECLINING EVERYDAY AND REALISED THAT Naaigeria MUST SHIFT FROM BEING A OIL ECONOMY. hence this "DESPARATION ABOUT REBASING TRYING TO WOE INVESTORS INTO A SH8THOLE/Naaigeria.

HA HA THE WEST HAS BEEN FOOLING NIGERIANS SOON, AFTER THEIR OIL IS FINISHED WHICH IS PROJECTED TO BE 25 YEARS FROM LAST YEAR. THESE WESTERNERS WILL BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE ELSEWHERE. grin grin grin grin grin grin[b]Not so long ago we were told PAKISTAN WILL REACH $1TRILLION MARK THIS YEAR, WE'RE WAITING WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT. grin grin grin grin grin

I SAW THIS INTERESTING ARTICLE LAST NIGHT AND LAUGHED. grin grin grin grin grin grin
NIGERIA THE REGIONAL SUPER POWER NOT A GIANT OF AFRICA cry cry cry cry cry

There has been a great deal of attention paid to the rise of Nigeria as of late. Indeed, it is hard to ignore the impressive economic growth rates being posted at a time when most economies are on the decline. The government appears focused on improving government services and investing in high potential growth areas of the economy. President Goodluck Jonathan’s recent Transformation Agenda is an impressive document that many economists and analysts believe is setting the conditions for Nigeria to become the dominant economy on the African continent. The agenda emerged in 2011 out of a belief by President Jonathan that the government needed a sense of direction and a way to ensure the country’s development priorities were applied with continuity, consistency, and commitment – the so-called “3Cs”. cry cry cry cry

Such analysis of Nigeria’s trajectory is further understandable given the current distribution of economic and political power in the region. Today, there are three regional nodes of economic and political influence in Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. These three markets are the dominant players and generally act as hubs for continent-wide trade and commerce. They are also important interlocutors within their regions and across the continent via the African Union. Traditionally, South Africa has been the most dominant of the three, taking on leadership roles within the African Union and often representing the continent in international institutions like the United Nations Security Council. South Africa’s dominance in this respect continues, but many are now arguing that its position atop the hierarchy of African states is being economically threatened by Nigeria.

But what I find particularly remarkable about all the analyses is their failure to consider the political economy of Nigeria as a whole. Indeed, much of the contemporary analysis of Nigeria appears to gloss over, forget, or intentionally ignore some of the important structural issues that still confront it. I don’t mean to downplay the significant economic growth that Nigeria is experiencing, or of the plans to fix its problems – all of these are good things. However, it really is too soon to claim that Nigeria is posing any threat to the dominance of South Africa on the continent.

Whilst Nigeria is a hub for the movement of goods, South Africa’s capacity and infrastructure are still superior in many respects. A recent study coming out of the South African Institute of International Affairs, argues that geography and infrastructure make a real difference to economic growth potential. The study notes that South Africa still maintains a geographic advantage and advanced infrastructural capacity, ranging from deep-sea ports to container activity to strong logistics capacity, and that it is where many multinational companies have chosen to locate their headquarters. The study also warns that other countries are finding ways to improve market share of trade activity in Africa. All of these findings are correct, but the logical jump to assuming South Africa’s decline under Zuma and Nigeria’s rising dominance implied by these sorts of studies leaves me feeling skeptical for the following reasons:

First, even in light of Nigeria’s strong economic growth, its GDP is still far less than that of South Africa. In fact, we are talking about $164 billion less. Not an insignificant sum for two developing countries. Nigeria’s GDP currently sits at $244 billion whilst South Africa maintains a GDP of about $408 billion. With Nigeria’s annual growth rate of 7% that is an extra $16 billion coming into the Nigerian economy next year, in 2012 we have seen the decline of Nigeria's growth from 7% in 2011 to 6.1% and assuming growth continues on par as projected, this will have a compounded effect. In this context, it is going to take more than 20 years for Nigeria to catch up with South Africa’s economy, which is also growing at a (albeit more modest) rate of 3%. Note: with recent oil findings in Southern Africa, South Africas problems are almost done and they will rise and open the gap. This is a far lengthier period than the 2014 prediction made by some analysts, so it is quite possible that the economic fortunes of either state could change significantly. Indeed, it is believed that South African growth rates could increase if problems with labour unrest in the mining sector are resolved. This is entirely plausible if the Zuma administration negotiates a mutually acceptable plan with its union partners currently in the governing alliance. All this takes is political will.

So, Nigeria’s transition into dominance will be reliant on current growth rates, oil prices, and education investments remaining the same for the next ten years. This scenario doesn’t take into account any shifts in macroeconomic conditions or natural fluctuations in markets. As well, it assumes that Nigeria can solve some real challenges it faces with its business environment, primarily that of capital flight and corruption. Indeed, Nigeria is ranked 131 out of 185 countries as a place to do business and has stayed in the same spot for the past two years. In contrast, South Africa’s business environment has improved in the past year – it is now ranked 39th globally, a two spot jump from the 41st position that it maintained last year.

Nigeria remains rife with corruption despite efforts by the government to address it. Continentally, Nigeria is ranked 27 out of 53 states in terms of being a non-corrupt environment; internationally it is ranked 139 out of 176 countries, according to Transparency International. In contrast, South Africa ranks seventh within the region and 69th globally for non-corruption. Corruption in Nigeria is really a systemic issue and the challenge of tackling it cannot be underestimated; to do so would require sustained support from continental and international partners.

The rise of Nigeria will also be dependent on its ability to address socio-political challenges. Longstanding civil conflict due to insurgent groups, and struggles to put in place safeguard measures to protect human rights will also prevent Nigeria from becoming the dominant player on the continent. These challenges are real and if not addressed, will detract from Nigeria’s ability to assert its dominance through the use of force or through moral persuasion.

Political stability in Nigeria is still a major issue. Adding to the existing political divisions between the people in the North and South of the country are the threats that insurgent groups such as Boko Haram and Ansaru pose to stability. Indeed, the national and local level governments appear to be struggling to contain these groups that are committed to destabilizing the North and East and to undermining important development work such as the vaccinations against Polio. Civil conflict brought on by these insurgent groups and their effectiveness at undermining the authority of the state and instilling fear in the local population poses a real challenge to Nigeria’s rise as sorting out internal matters will divert attention and resources for engaging in regional or international issues. Nigeria’s inability to take leadership in intervening in regional conflicts to date, like Cote d’Ivoire and Mali, only highlight the difficulty it faces in projecting leadership outside of its borders. While it is expected that Nigeria will participate in stabilizing Mali through the provision of troops, its slow response has been surprising given its leadership role in the regional economic community of ECOWAS. South Africa, which is a reluctant intervenor in African conflicts, has committed $23 million in humanitarian aid and police training.

Finally, the Nigerian government continues to grapple with respecting human rights. Amnesty International recently released its annual report on Nigeria that notes the continuing prevalence of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, forced evictions, and unlawful detention. As well, rights for the LGBTI community continue to be hindered as homosexuality is still illegal in Nigeria and the president is planning on signing the Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Bill that was passed by the Nigerian Senate in 2011. All of this impacts Nigeria’s ability to act as a moral actor on the continent and internationally. South Africa, on the other hand, continues to be a moral actor as a result of the strong human rights provisions within its constitution and the existence of a constitutional court that effectively upholds those provisions.

When considering the “rise” of countries, it is important to remember that influence and dominance are also determined by other socio-political conditions than just the economy. The political reality of Nigeria includes real efforts to improve economic conditions in the country but also persistent problems that, if left unresolved, will undermine its ability to influence and dominate in Africa. In this light, it is important that one-dimensional analyses based on economic growth figures be tempered and contextualized against the challenges the country faces.

SOUTH AFRICA IS 100 YEARS AHEAD OF NAAIGERIA "INFRUSTRUCTURALLY SPEAKING". Again ya'll are stuck in the OLD SYSTEM GDP that was invented in the 1960s by Europeans. Most ECONOMISTS know "GDP IS NOT A GOOD SYSTEM TO MEASURE PROGRESS IN A COUNTRY". Even the UK is going to be using a "NEW SYSTEM". That will be able to measure " INFRUSTRUCTURE, EDUCATION,HEALTH ETC".

Everyone who has been to university and did "ECONOMICS as a subject" knows GDP doesn't MEASURE (INFRSTRUCTURE, POVERTY, EDUCATION, HEALTH AND OTHERS".

TO OPEN UR BLIND EYES "MUD DRINKERS READ ABOUT GDP OUTDATED SYSTEM ONLINE". GOOGLE IS YOUR FRIEND "PITCH BLACK VILLAGERS".

One of u dummies mentioned MIDDLE CLASS. SOUTH AFRICA HAS A BIG MIDDLE CLASS AS WELL. Woolworths an up market SA retailer with stores in UK,Germany, Australia,US,Namibia,Gabon etc..left Naaigeria after 2 months. I WILL POST THEIR VIEWS ON NAAIGERIA. THEY MENTIONED THE FACT THAT NAAIGERIA'S "MIDDLE CLASS WAS A LIE".

AFRICA MIDDLE CLASS 2013. Look at Naaigeria's "TINY CIRCLE".
Botswanans take it in AFRICA. THEIR WEALTH IS WELL SHARED.
Blue=upper middle class

Another VILLAGE DUMMY MENTIONED SA's MIDDLE CLASS.

Your finance minister mentioned on CNN that SA's middle class has boomed. Today the inequality in SA is no longer a BLACK VS WHITE thing. But BLACK vs BLACK, meaning there are many well off blacks. Everyone knows SA'S black middle class is bigger than white middle class.

WE UNDERSTAND SOME OF U ARE "ILL INFORMED" because u live in a DARK COUNTRY. Where theres no reliable electricity, over 100 million Naaigeria shitting outside without toilets.

I GIVE CREDIT TO NAAIGERIA FEW RULING ELITE FOR FEEDING U "PROPAGANDA".
SOUTH AFRICA MIDDLE CLASS

SOUTH AFRICA HOUSING AND SERVICES.

Naaigerians please bring us these as well.
This table below shows me most SOUTHIES ARE "URBANISED". Few villagers.

DUMB MUD DRINKERS. Enjoy this and hope your ruling class sees this.

[b]GDP as a measure of human progress is outdated
Sanjeev Sanyal, Feb 10, 2013, 08.55am IST

The world is reeling from two major crises, the financial/economic crisis and the crisis of climate change and ecological collapse. Both are a result of the same human error, a colossal misallocation of resources, financial capital in one case and natural capital on the other. A combination of counter-cyclical policies and time will eventually get us out of the financial mess. However, climate change and catastrophic environmental degradation threaten human civilisation as we know it.

Many blame globalisation and capitalism for the large-scale misallocation of resources. However, isolationism and socialism provide no alternative; we tried them for decades with disastrous results. A market-based system is clearly more efficient. The problem is not with the tools of capitalism but the failure to define its goals. The power of the markets is being harnessed to maximise the wrong paradigm.

The most commonly used paradigm for measuring human progress is provided by national income accounts and, more specifically, gross domestic product (GDP). Virtually all economic policy-making is oriented directly or indirectly towards maximising GDP growth. It is so ubiquitous that people forget it is an entirely artificial construct created in the 1940s as part of the war effort.

Of course, rulers from ancient times have kept some record of economic activity for taxation purposes. National accounts as we know them were created during World War II by Richard Stone and James Meade, with support from John Maynard Keynes, as a way to keep track of war-time economic activity. Given the circumstances, their framework was necessarily 'industrial' in its essence, without space for niceties like environmental degradation and socio-demographic developments.

Post-war , this framework was adapted to create the GDP number now used. Unfortunately, the system remains an arbitrary way to measure value creation, especially in areas relating to externalities and natural capital. For instance, if we cut down a pristine rain forest we are destroying value in terms of biodiversity, watersheds, carbon sequestration, flood control, non-timber forest produce and so on. Yet, in the current system, destruction of value will show up as GDP growth from logging!

This does not mean the creators of GDP were unaware of its limitations. In his Nobel Memorial Lecture in 1984, Richard Stone stated, "The three pillars on which analysis of society ought to rest are studies of economic, socio-demographic and environmental phenomena." He added that his work had focused mostly on economic accounting and he had not spent much time on environmental accounting even though "environmental issues, such as pollution, land use and non-renewable resources offer plenty of scope for accounting" . In short, the creators of GDP thought of it as work-in-progress. Unfortunately, the world has continued to focus much of its energy on maximising an incomplete and out-of-date paradigm.

There are ways to adjust for the shortcomings of GDP. One is to create additional matrices for measuring progress. The Human Development Index and Carbon Footprint are concepts that can be used to enhance the raw GDP approach. Unfortunately, they have failed to gain a serious following beyond the world of activists and conferences because these measures lack the simplicity of a single GDP number.

The only real alternative then is to recalibrate GDP itself to reflect genuine value generation. This can be done by assigning monetary values to things like water pollution, deforestation, land degradation and other changes in the stock of natural capital. Similar adjustments can be made to account for changes in human capital stock (health, education etc). The result would be a new GDP number more closely reflecting true value generated by various human activities.

This approach has many advantages. First, GDP is understood by policy-makers and the general public. It's a single number simple to grasp and apply. The new GDP number would merely replace the current measure. Once national income incorporates these changes, the 'development' versus 'environment' debate will narrow.

Second, we have a whole range of tools and methodologies to value natural/human capital. These had not been developed when GDP was originally conceived. Incorporation of the new techniques will allow us to seamlessly adjust existing national accounts. Studies by the Green Accounting for Indian States Project have already demonstrated that it is possible to make these adjustments even for a large, complex developing country like India. The data can be calculated by sector and by state. The results are astounding. For instance, water quality in Uttar Pradesh's rivers is now so bad, it would alone take off 17.5 per cent from the state's GDP.

Third, all policy-making is about tradeoffs. Often these are difficult trade-offs that compare apples with oranges: the benefits of building a dam versus those of retaining an existing forest or settlement. By assigning monetary values to creation/depletion of natural and human capital, the new GDP framework can effectively 'internalise' various externalities. For instance, it allows us to work out who compensates whom and by how much. In turn, this will allow for far more informed public debate.

GDP is not a God-given measure of development. The existing model of national accounts came out of World War II. There is every reason we should update it. When we say GDP grew by 8 per cent, we should really mean that we added 8 per cent more value.

(The writer is with the Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore.) [/b]

@Naaigerians
NOTE: ANY COUNTRY IS FREE TO "REBASE" SOUTH AFRICA CAN DO THAT AS WELL SAME CAN BE SAID ABOUT ANGOLA, GHANA, KENYA.

THE PROBLEM IS WE'RE NOT DESPARATE AND KNOW WHERE WE STAND.

YOUR HEALTH SYSTEM IS STILL bleeped.
Naaigeria WORST PLACE TO BE BORN IN 2013.

FORMER SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT "MR MBEKI" LIVED IN NAAIGERIA AND LECTURED THERE. He gave us a description of how Naaigerians think and mentioned ya'll EXCEL IN FOOLING EACH OTHER.

Naaigeria can only dream about this.

@Cubeet
over 100 million Naaigerians SH8T OUTSIDE.

Naaigeria POVERTY MAP. The world knows why theres Boko Haram,Ansaru,MEND. ya'll are fighting over DRYING OUT OIL.

Hence latest lies about REBASE trying to woe investors into a SH8T HOLE. This map paints a similar picture when we talk EDUCATION.
The DARK RED, LIGHT RED, GREEN are most ILLITERATE AREAS/states in Naaigeria.

Naaigeria is IN TROUBLE HENCE THIS DESPARATE STEP "REBASING TRYING TO WOE INVESTORS".

We were not born yesterday. We know Naaigeria is trying to save her UGLY BABOON face.

US OIL IMPORTS BY COUNTRY. The US has reduced its oil imports from Naaigeria. SHALE GAS IS THE FUTURE.

@Cubeet
LET ME DO U FAVOUR AND GIVE U SOUTH AFRICA'S UNEMPLOYED FIGURES FOR 2013. Please compare those with Naaigeria.

after LECTURING IN NAAIGERIA FOR YEARS. THABO MBEKI STUDIED THESE BABOONS AND REALIZED THEYR ARE ALL ABOUT "LIES AND FALSE CLAIMS".

Cubeet: http://m.news24.com/news24/MyNews24/Every-Third-South-African-is-Without-a-Job-20131222

AwodwaGyanOniwe:
Naaigeria can only dream about this.

Wow I am a Nigerian and I have never seen a beautiful landscape such as this.it must be one of the seven wonders of the world. Mcheew ignorant mofo!

@Cubeet
SOUTH AFRICA UNEMPLOYEMENT=4,6M LESS THAN 5M. These are REAL NUMBERS NOT %.

http://www.stanlib.com/EconomicFocus/Pages/SAunemploymentrateroseto252inQ12013.aspx

ANOTHER BEDROOM DREAM FROM A IGBO EMPTY VESSEL. I will help u again with REAL NUMBERS. CORRECTION SOUTH AFRICA'S POPULATION IS 53 MILLION IN 2013. WRONG AGAIN MR MBEKI WAS "RIGHT ABOUT U AIR HEADS".

Cubeet: South Africa-51million population more than 50% of the population are poor i.e not more than 25million of their population are not poor