jmaine:

Put Buhari at the end of the ticket and watch the APC fail again in the SW albeit with a very low margin . . .only a Yoruba at the top of the poll will shake GEJ vote count very well. . . .

Not against GEJ. I assure you.

SW does not care being the presidential candidacy. They don't even want it.

Anybody against GEJ is as good as delivered.

APC's best bet is either tambuwal or that jigawa's, gov

jmaine:

Put Buhari at the end of the ticket and watch the APC fail again in the SW albeit with a very low margin . . .only a Yoruba at the top of the poll will shake GEJ vote count very well. . . .

Buhari on the ticket guarantees 13 Northern states, Fashola on the ticket guarantees 6 SW states. 19 states in APC bag before the elections kickoff

Ngene-Ukwenu:


How come they were not able to deliver their states to their "Christian brothers/sisters" bar Benue and plateau states?? Are you a learner?

Ngene-Ukwenu:


How come they were not able to deliver their states to their "Christian brothers/sisters" bar Benue and plateau states?? Are you a learner?

Ngene-Ukwenu:


How come they were not able to deliver their states to their "Christian brothers/sisters" bar Benue and plateau states?? Are you a learner?

. ,Because the population of Northern Muslim is between 50%-70% giving them an edge over them yet not depriving them of their 25% voting power which they are willing to give GEJ.

Italiano1:

You are very fond of questioning people when they make spurious comments like you have done up there. Can you provide any evidence to support your post up there?

"The followership of Fashola has evaporated"? Can you please expatiate on what you mean?

You should strive to maintain the cordial discussion here without your opening snide retort. Thanks.

Fashola second term rating has dropped among Lagosians and the Ondo State electorates did not take the ACN Fashola referencing to heart.

A reason why the PDP even performed better than the ACN.

papparatzzi2013:

Not against GEJ. I assure you.

SW does not care being the presidential candidate. They don't even want it.

Anybody against GEJ is as good as delivered.

APC's best bet is either tambuwal or that jigawa's, gov

You will be shocked brother. Not when curious eyes are watching the desperation and hypocrisy of the APC in their recruitment process . . .

SW does not really pander to political leaders. In a free and fair election, SW is one region where your performance speaks for you.
But while the primordial politics within SW is predominantly driven by performance and as such a performing Mimiko can retain his seat, the attitude to national politics is driven by several factors. In a coded language, a performing president who is 'against' the SW will still lose in SW irrespective of his promoters be it Tinubu or Obasanjo. GEJ should thank his stars if he gets 30% of SW votes in 2015.

Sentiments of "let's vote for minority president", "Southern solidarity against the oppressive north", "Niger Delta question", are no longer there. Irrespective of what politicians say, GEJ won 2011 presidential election fair and square. But in 2015, it will be a political miracle if he survives.

jmaine:

You should strive to maintain the cordial discussion here without your opening snide retort. Thanks.

Fashola second term rating has dropped among Lagosians and the Ondo State electorates did not take the ACN Fashola referencing to heart.

A reason why the PDP even performed better than the ACN.

You are still missing the point of thinkin SW vote is about party or religion.

There is no achievement PDP can point out to display APC in SW and they are too learned.

I will advise you to do a pre-election survey to test GEJ's popularity in SW.

Not even after the open letter issue.

dayokanu:

Buhari on the ticket guarantees 13 Northern states, Fashola on the ticket guarantees 6 SW states. 19 states in APC bag before the elections kickoff

It doesn't work like 1,2,3 brother. There are intrigues and sentiments your not taking into view.

2011 poll destroyed that direct way of prediction . . . .

jmaine:

You will be shocked brother. Not when curious eyes are watching the desperation and hypocrisy of the APC in their recruitment process . . .

Do you know the major key to SW election?

It is the civil servants. That is the most important electorate. They determine who is entering and who is going. They are even the least on population but they are very influential and well informed.

With such an electorate not buying into religion or ethnic or north vs south sentiments, the election is virtually over in SW.

If you are banking on Bode George and Kasamu, you are on a very long thing. I can assure you, they cannot even deliver their sitting room talkless of their ward.

They will spend money and thy will still lose woefully and embarrassingly.

papparatzzi2013:

You are still missing the point of thinkin SW vote is about party or religion.

There is no achievement PDP can point out to display APC in SW and they are too learned.

I will advise you to do a pre-election survey to test GEJ's popularity in SW.

Not even after the open letter issue.

Do not be deceived in national politics, religious and tribal sentiments plays a lot.

it's only in local politics where the SW doesn't bother much in those indices.

jmaine:

It doesn't work like 1,2,3 brother. There are intrigues and sentiments your not taking into view.

2011 poll destroyed that direct way of prediction . . . .

You are forgetting the role SW played in tilting the balance in favour of GEJ. Those votes were based on sentiments then and it is non-existent again.

Mr president will have to do a miracle between now and end of 2014, in terms of performance, to really sway 10% of the vote. Be rest assured.

jmaine:

Do not be deceived in national politics, religious and tribal sentiments plays a lot.

it's only in local politics where the SW doesn't bother much in those indices.

Then, you definitely don't know anything about SW politics.

Religion and ethnicity are baseless once performance card is trumped up.

They will rather vote for a devil that will perform, than a non-performing Jesus Xt. It is not about sentiment.

That was why Mimiko was able to hold his ground against APCs machinery in the last election in his state.

papparatzzi2013:

Do you know the major key to SW election?

It is the civil servants. That is the most important electorate. They determine who is entering and who is going. They are even the least on population but they are very influential and well informed.

With such an electorate not buying into religion or ethnic or north vs south sentiments, the election is virtually over on SW.

If you are banking on Bode George and Kasamu, you are on a very long thing. I can assure you, they cannot even deliver their sitting room talkless of their ward.

They will spend money and thy will still lose woefully and embarrassingly.

Brother , you are very correct that the civil service are one of the major blocks of the electorates you don't want to mess with.

And am also of the view that the SW doesn't pander to the Tinubus,Bode George, OBJ , Omisore, Oyinlola, et al., during polls. So we are on the same point.


It might also interest you that there is ample time to sway opinions from now to 2015. And if the APC keeps sending out wrong signals that they are no different than the PDP in their content,desires and drive. The following scenario will happen.

1) Voters apathy cos they don't feel so impressed with any of them

2) The poll will have a semblance of the 2011 election although tighter.

[quote author=jmaine]

You should strive to maintain the cordial discussion here without your opening snide retort. Thanks.

My apologies if my observations did not go down well with you.

Fashola second term rating has dropped among Lagosians

Can you kindly provide evidence in support of your assertion?

and the Ondo State electorates did not take the ACN Fashola referencing to heart.

A reason why the PDP even performed better than the ACN.

Again, can you expound on how you have come to this conclusion- please with verifiable evidence?

papparatzzi2013:

Then, you definitely don't know anything about SW politics.

Religion and ethnicity are baseless once performance card is trumped up.

They will rather vote for a devil that will perform, than a non-performing Jesus Xt. It is not about sentiment.

That was why Mimiko was able to hold his ground against APCs machinery in the last election in his state.

You are referencing a local level election which i said those indices doesn't matter .But at the National level it does crop in, though not severe.

jmaine:

Brother , you are very correct that the civil service are one of the major blocks of the electorates you don't want to mess with.

And am also of the view that the SW doesn't pander to the Tinubus,Bode George, OBJ , Omisore, Oyinlola, et al., during polls. So we are on the same point.


It might also interest you that there is ample time to sway opinions from now to 2015. And if the APC keeps sending out wrong signals that they are no different than the PDP in their content,desires and drive. The following scenario will happen.

1) Voters apathy cos they don't feel so impressed with any of them

2) The poll will have a semblance of the 2011 election although tighter.

You are right bro.

But, people are too disconnected with the presidency, that is almost non-existent to them, to have an apathy approach to the election.

Election here is by word of mouth and propaganda and what you have to show and offer. PDP does not have the people in SW they don't have the propaganda machine in SW and they don't have anything to point out too.
How will they win?

Like prof corruption said, it will be a miracle. Lemme add, it will be the 8th wonder of the world.

jmaine:


It is only extensive idiocy that will make a grown up adult to equate all APC opposition to being Igbo. It just shows how ignorant you are.

Saying GEJ won't score 5% in Kogi, Benue, Taraba,Plateau, Kaduna, Kwara, or even Adamawa is amazingly ediotic and very naive.

Don't post further on this thread lest you embarrass yourself the more.

I advice you prepare your system for this before the people deliver the verdict in 2015, otherwise, you will have heart attack on hearing election result.

jmaine:

You are referencing a local level election which i said those indices doesn't matter .But at the National level it does crop in, though not severe.

So the mentality of the people will suddenly change against national politics because it is not a local election.

You are very wrong bro.

Infact, there is a school of thought now, that says we are going to see more turn out of people for election more than ever before in SW.

They may be right and they may be wrong. It is not empirically and scientifically proven, but, based on the knowledge of the people and their mentality.

Italiano1:
Can you kindly provide evidence in support of your assertion?

Again, can you expound on how you have come to this conclusion- please with verifiable evidence?

Concerning Fashola rating in Lagos, sentiments on ground shows that, even though it is not conclusive unless a poll is conducted.

Ondo, what verifiable proof do i have than the fact that Fashola performance was referenced a lot and he(Fashola) also gave speeches to garner support for the ACN. But the ACN still came third after the PDP.

OsunOriginal:

I advice you prepare your system for this before the people deliver the verdict in 2015, otherwise, you will have attack on hearing election result.

You might just be the one with the shocker . . .

papparatzzi2013:
So the mentality of the people will suddenly change against national politics because it is not a local election.

You are very wrong bro.

Infact, there is a school of thought now, that says we are going to see more turn out of people for election more than ever before in SW.

They may be right and they may be wrong. It is not empirically and scientifically proven, but, based on the knowledge of the people and their mentality.

My brother, there are a lot twist and turns that will happen before the polls.

No one can confidently say this will happen until we get very close.

But we are all entitled to our opinions no matter how wild they seem .

jmaine:

My brother, there are a lot twist and turns that will happen before the polls.

No one can confidently say this will happen until we get very close.

But we are all entitled to our opinions no matter how wild they seem .

Yea, there are still a lot of twists to come.

But, the twist had better be a sharp departure of all of the following that are prevalent now:

1. Presidential pardon of rogues and corrupt people
2. President's body language supporting corruption
3. Woeful and abysmal performance indices
4. Continuous fighting of the Generals - believe me, thy are necessary evil for mr president's aspiration.
5. Anti-people policies

Just my words of advice.

papparatzzi2013:

Yea, there are still a lot of twists to come.

But, the twist had better be a sharp departure of all of the following that are prevalent now:

1. Presidential pardon of rogues and corrupt people
2. President's body language supporting corruption
3. Woeful and abysmal performance indices
4. Continuous fighting of the Generals - believe me, thy are necessary evil for mr president's aspiration.
5. Anti-people policies

Just my words of advice.

Better power supply and and a very good showing in the Lagos -Ibadan express way can change a lot of opinions and sway them towards GEJ.

Unnecessary harassment of the President by elements seen to be rabidly pro "Core North" might just sway people towards GEJ

And what has the Generals got to do with the SW votes we talking about ?

jmaine:

I brought up the Mimiko angle to quash your theory which said the SW were herded to vote the ACN solely because of Tinubu. If ACN came a distant third in Ondo despite Tinubu vigorous campaign of calumny against Mimiko; then Tinubu over estimated worth just got binned with that fact..

Aregbesola has a strong base in Osun, and his win is assured, just like it happened in Ondo, Edo and Anambra.

You need to know various dynamics control local and National politics. You are not currently in the SW like us so you can't place a value or predict the SW disposition towards GEJ.

As it was in 2011, GEJ might just hold his ground here in 2015. Though it might not be in overwhelming style like 2011.

The bolded is a normal dynamics worldwide with incumbent by re-election.

Op well done. I don't have any question but I do have suggestions.

Anytime time I heard Jonathan speak, I always wonder how he become a Governor talkless of a President . I'm tired of Jonathan. I'm tired of how he foolishly run this country . That's why I'm hoping APC will get it right with it's choice of flag bearer . I don't mind Buhari/Fashola ticket but if it's not Possible, those that'll be choosen should have excellently performed at the lowest level of government .

I'm definitely not voting Jonathan but so far I've not be impress by APC. They now have majority in the house, so they should start putting money where their mouth is by first showing off and doing the right thing With the Budget .

APC should ensure that their i's and t's are well dotted and crossed. Nigerians are watching.

jmaine:

And what has the Generals got to do with the SW votes we talking about ?

Obj spoke the minds of the people in his letter. The president dodged majority of the key issues that bothers on corruption and performance and was aimlessly and without tact, attacking OBJ, in his response.

Those guys don't have anything to lose. They will only keep rubbishing his image in the minds of the people. This will continue to limit his chances.

He should pick his fights with wisdom and most importantly, performance is key.

papparatzzi2013:

Obj spoke the minds of the people in his letter. The president dodged majority of the key issues that bothers on corruption and performance and was aimlessly and without tact, attacking OBJ, in his response.

Those guys don't have anything to lose. They will only keep rubbishing his image in the minds of the people. This will continue to limit his chances.

He should pick his fights with wisdom and most importantly, performance is key.

Only the people have power and not the Generals

Merry Christmas to all. I arrived for Xmas Holidays and I realized from friends that approximately 80% of the private jets that used to be housed at the Lagos Airports hangers have been permanently relocated from the hangers at Lagos to Akanu Ibiam International Airport, Enugu, because the good people of Biafran Enclave own most of the jets. It gives me joy, the defeated, are now the victors. This is because most of the Private Jets are owned by the Biafran-Lagosians and experts working with the Oil & Gas Fields, people naturally want to not fly to Lagos before they can board their jets. I see this as a paradigm shift, favorably for the good people of Biafra Enclave and Niger Delta.

The GEJ transformational Agenda has given fairness to us all and we, the 45% Lagosians will return GEJ at Lagos polls. Lagos is the most populous State in Nigeria and if 45% of approximately 20 million people (as might be reflected on voters registers)vote for GEJ, in addition to 95% of SS/SE/MB and some states in the North, who needs a soothsayer to predict the outcome ?

Folks, one thing is clear, I do not have the luxury of s/tupidity or naivety displayed by APC e-Mosquitoes, and I strongly am emptily jealous of those who are wealthy in ignorance of truism, as is and as should be.

APC died when they embraced IBB - a killer of June 12; OBJ - A chronic wife beater, pervasive believer in gentlemanly agreements of Kaduna Mafia against the dictates of the Nigerian Constitution; Ab Dusalam Abubakar - Perenial fraud of latitudinal prowess of military proportion; Buhari - An Islamic Extremist of the Boko Haram Dynasty and certified follower of Islamic extremism who lauds the murder of Christians and Christianity by his boys, calling Christians baboons and monkeys. APC als parades Tinubu - A product of OBJ treachery, for the records, OBJ "seized" Lagos State allocation for over 2 yrs which accumulated to over several billions of Naira, when the funds was eventually released, the billions finds its way into the personal accounts of Tinubu.

Need I say more ? APC might be popular amongst the thieving elites, but Nigerians, the real voters, will NEVER, NEVER AND I REPEAT NEVER accepted APC, because APC does not represent change, APC represents everything Nigerians hate.

MERRY XMAS NAIRALANDERS.

omanzo02:

The bolded is a normal dynamics worldwide with incumbent by re-election.

If you are using Ondo's election to judge, you are on a very long thingggggggg.

APC or ACN being 3rd was as a result of Mimiko 's commendable performance and a wrong campaign tactics employed by ACN.

President banking on SS and SE to deliver Aso Rock to him, will be a miracle of the 21st century, provided he doesn't rig. You can also only rig where you are popular, remember that.

jmaine:

Only the people have power and not the Generals

You are right.

But the Generals can rubbish him in the minds of the people.

papparatzzi2013:

You are right.

But the Generals can rubbish him in the minds of the people.

We can see how OBJ is faring in the minds of the people. The people are wise in identifying opportunistic general at all times .

The people are all watching . . . .

jmaine:

We can see how OBJ is faring in the minds of the people. The people are wise in identifying opportunistic general at all times .

The people are all watching . . . .

I am not conversant with the voting pattern and sentiments of other regions.

But, in SW, the president's response was not effective and the general notion is, Mr President was attacking the messenger and not the message.

OBJ has never been popular among the people of SW but he has enough seemingly credible contacts that can continue to spread propaganda against GEJ, in a subtle and effective manner.

The response just made OBJ to look like a hero. A victim of speaking the truth.