Eurasia, the global political risk and consulting firm, has upgraded
its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral, as it
projects that President Goodluck Jonathan has a 75-percent chance
of re-election in February 2015.
Eurasia says this is likely to put a floor on downside risks to the
economy as the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) steadily
consolidates under the president.
According to Philippe de Pontet, Africa director at New York-based
Eurasia Group, “Nigeria will muddle through after all, without too
much investment-relevant risk.”
Eurasia notes in a new report that the next six months in Nigeria will
be tense, however.
“This will not resolve Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, but reduces
the likelihood that the campaign season will completely upend the
investment climate or reverse the country’s economic momentum.
Over the next six months, we envision policy stagnation, but not
sharp backsliding,” it further says.
A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it
less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil
infrastructure and personnel, according to Eurasia.
“Political risks are already elevated so our neutral forecast starts
from a high-risk baseline. Downside pressures that could push our
trajectory back in a negative direction would include some
combination of an oil shock (price or production), a disorderly
response to Fed tapering, a new wave of defections from the PDP, a
sharp escalation (and southern creep) by Boko Haram and a
prolonged rise of sectarian or political violence,” the report says.
De Pontet states that the upgrade is based on Eurasia’s
methodology for assessing political risk trajectory (six months out
and two years out).
It is expected by Eurasia that the pre-election period will be marked
by patronage politics, constant politicking, and attacks by Boko
Haram, oil theft, and policy stagnation, but they are not expected to
undermine national stability or derail Jonathan’s candidacy.
Furthermore, the risk of fiscal or monetary policy upheaval under
Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or CBN Governor Godwin
Emefiele is relatively low, limiting downside risk.
Nigeria has in the last year seen dramatic events in the lead to the
general elections that have spelt a political quandary at times for the
two leading political parties, APC and PDP, as they both engaged in
an intense contest of political checkmate.
APC emerged as a political game changer after scoring high profile
defections from the PDP, soon after the controversial merger of its
parties, ACN and CPC.
However, the political storm it raised has started to settle with the
loss of an election in Ekiti State where it previously won the election,
the impeachment of one of its governors Murtala Nyako of
Adamawa State, a governor who defected from the PDP to the APC,
on charges of misconduct and violation of the constitution, and as
high profile defections from the opposition APC to the ruling PDP
occurred.
Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s former anti-corruption chief, Buba
Mohammed Marwa, a former military governor of Lagos, and
Ibrahim Shekarau, a one-time opposition governor of Kano State
and founding member of APC, have all defected from APC to PDP.
Jonathan has faced criticism from the opposition and citizens for
failing to check corruption, contain a raging Islamist insurgency in
the country’s north and deliver on promises of economic reform. All
these have hurt Jonathan’s standing in the run-up to the elections.
However, Ribadu’s defection has been seen as a boost for the PDP.
Ribadu “helps boost confidence in the PDP because it’s a
demonstration of their current political strength”, says Thomas Horn
Hansen, senior Africa analyst at London-based Control Risks.
“It’s a political coup for the PDP over the APC,” he says.
“Ribadu’s defection to the PDP is a blow to the opposition on
multiple fronts,” de Pontet said. “It’s a setback for the APC’s self-
promoted brand as a true alternative to the ruling party.”
YINKA ABRAHAM

businessdayonline.com/2014/08/eurasia-upgrades-nigeria-to-neutral-on-jonathan-re-election-prospects/

Eldavido1: Eurasia, the global political risk and consulting firm, has upgraded
its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral, as it
projects that President Goodluck Jonathan has a 75-percent chance
of re-election in February 2015.
Eurasia says this is likely to put a floor on downside risks to the
economy as the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) steadily
consolidates under the president.
According to Philippe de Pontet, Africa director at New York-based
Eurasia Group, “Nigeria will muddle through after all, without too
much investment-relevant risk.”
Eurasia notes in a new report that the next six months in Nigeria will
be tense, however.
“This will not resolve Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, but reduces
the likelihood that the campaign season will completely upend the
investment climate or reverse the country’s economic momentum.
Over the next six months, we envision policy stagnation, but not
sharp backsliding,” it further says.
A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it
less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil
infrastructure and personnel, according to Eurasia.
“Political risks are already elevated so our neutral forecast starts
from a high-risk baseline. Downside pressures that could push our
trajectory back in a negative direction would include some
combination of an oil shock (price or production), a disorderly
response to Fed tapering, a new wave of defections from the PDP, a
sharp escalation (and southern creep) by Boko Haram and a
prolonged rise of sectarian or political violence,” the report says.
De Pontet states that the upgrade is based on Eurasia’s
methodology for assessing political risk trajectory (six months out
and two years out).
It is expected by Eurasia that the pre-election period will be marked
by patronage politics, constant politicking, and attacks by Boko
Haram, oil theft, and policy stagnation, but they are not expected to
undermine national stability or derail Jonathan’s candidacy.
Furthermore, the risk of fiscal or monetary policy upheaval under
Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala or CBN Governor Godwin
Emefiele is relatively low, limiting downside risk.
Nigeria has in the last year seen dramatic events in the lead to the
general elections that have spelt a political quandary at times for the
two leading political parties, APC and PDP, as they both engaged in
an intense contest of political checkmate.
APC emerged as a political game changer after scoring high profile
defections from the PDP, soon after the controversial merger of its
parties, ACN and CPC.
However, the political storm it raised has started to settle with the
loss of an election in Ekiti State where it previously won the election,
the impeachment of one of its governors Murtala Nyako of
Adamawa State, a governor who defected from the PDP to the APC,
on charges of misconduct and violation of the constitution, and as
high profile defections from the opposition APC to the ruling PDP
occurred.
Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s former anti-corruption chief, Buba
Mohammed Marwa, a former military governor of Lagos, and
Ibrahim Shekarau, a one-time opposition governor of Kano State
and founding member of APC, have all defected from APC to PDP.
Jonathan has faced criticism from the opposition and citizens for
failing to check corruption, contain a raging Islamist insurgency in
the country’s north and deliver on promises of economic reform. All
these have hurt Jonathan’s standing in the run-up to the elections.
However, Ribadu’s defection has been seen as a boost for the PDP.
Ribadu “helps boost confidence in the PDP because it’s a
demonstration of their current political strength”, says Thomas Horn
Hansen, senior Africa analyst at London-based Control Risks.
“It’s a political coup for the PDP over the APC,” he says.
“Ribadu’s defection to the PDP is a blow to the opposition on
multiple fronts,” de Pontet said. “It’s a setback for the APC’s self-
promoted brand as a true alternative to the ruling party.”
YINKA ABRAHAM

businessdayonline.com/2014/08/eurasia-upgrades-nigeria-to-neutral-on-jonathan-re-election-prospects/

Hear Hear.