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obycindy:I am afraid I can offer little or no help here. Maybe you should ask the embassy for more details. |
Hey folks, It's been quiet here. I don't want to make further updates. I need someone/people to counter my views logically. Suggest better ways we can improve on things or on the above suggestions. Let us dream! I don't want bland suggestions like pass this and that bill for example because that is clearly not working. Example you can tell me why the present rail infrastructure or stakeholders will prevent us from building a robust railway system in 100 days. So we can tweak what we need to do to tackle it. Someone told me people like Dangote and the intercity transporters will oppose it and my suggestion was that the government will give them a 10 year lease to handle these coaches once completed. I am a bit perturbed by something. Is it that we just love complaining and fighting ethnic wars than contributing to something even if for intellectual gratification? Let's reason together. Let's make our country work. I am not proud to be a Nigeria with chronic issues and I don't have the patience to wait. They say patience without hope makes the mind sick. I don't know what I should hope on that is. My school of thought does not believe fighting corruption is enough in this country least of all without setting up independent institutions. |
UPDATE: The first 100 days into office, the primary targets amongst other things include 1) mapping out a proper rail network in Nigeria (upgrade on the existing rail network) with the help of the Chinese who are now masters in rail and train technology. You know one thing I find funny? When Caucasians conquered any land, one of the first things they did was network that area properly by rail. Unfortunately, the present rail network in Nigeria was constructed by them and has had no update. For me 80% of the current challenges we have on our roads is because of over usage. The rail network will knock off 60% of the pressure on the roads and will be efficient such that most people will prefer to travel by rail and also transport their goods by rail. 2) Focus on Ajaokuta steel company. We will start mining that deposit in Ajaokuta for real. 3) We will look at coal as an alternative source of energy. This is an unclean source I know but who cares for now? 4) Education. We roll out our graduate employment scheme in education and invest heavily in Research and Development institutes. Remember this is a FORCED GROWTH MODEL. |
Hi all, I have some articles and papers for anyone interested in the above discourse to read. We must industrialize Nigeria. In doing so we will copy from what happened in South East Asia. Try to read these documents so you can understand my points. My motivation was built from the below policies. http://www.icapitaleducation.biz/index.php?section=5&sub=15k http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/japan-the-forgotten-prote_b_850269.html http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/business/11458-tackling-the-infant-industry-debate.html If Japan did it, South Korea did it and China has done it, then we can do it. Remember this is a FORCED GROWTH MODEL. PS I have been trying without success to upload this file https://www.academia.edu/3727668/Roles_of_export-led_policies_in_developing_automobile_industry_in_South_Korea. You might want to register and download it yourself. It is an interesting read. |
Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men? It is the music of the people Who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart Echoes the beating of the drums There is a life about to start When tomorrow comes. Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see? Then join in the fight That will give you the right to be free! Will you give all you can give So that our banner may advance Some will fall and some will live Will you stand up and take your chance? The blood of the martyrs Will water the meadows of Nigeria! Do you hear the people sing Lost in the valley of the night? It is the music of a people Who are climbing to the light. For the wretched of the earth There is a flame that never dies. Even the darkest night will end And the sun will rise. They will live again in freedom In the garden of the Lord. They will walk behind the plough-share, They will put away the sword. The chain will be broken And all men will have their reward. Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Somewhere beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see? Do you hear the people sing? Say, do you hear the distant drums? It is the future that they bring When tomorrow comes! Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Somewhere beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see? Do you hear the people sing? Say, do you hear the distant drums? It is the future that they bring When tomorrow comes... Tomorrow comes! Les miserables... |
From the early feelers I get, the budget remains largely unchanged. Let me give a little background. I first studied fiscal policy in the year 2009. I took a look at the budget which to be honest does not need one to study fiscal policy to interpret but alas it was filled with dross. I was literally crying. Fast forward 7 years and I am a better analyst, having undergone some arcane if not unnecessary training in Fiscal policy. I take another look since its a new government though I had my reservations but that budget was eerily similar to what I saw as an undergraduate. There was an uproar, the president said it was padded and they made some adjustments but even though I have not seen the appropriation bill, I hear it is largely unchanged. I do not need to go through the details of the budget as some better analysts than myself have done that but what pains me is that there is no vision or hope in that budget. How can you not only borrow to fund recurrent expenditure but your capital projects are full of crap. We need our own country. I'd give you a free advise Nigeria cannot industrialize the way we are going. The budget that this model advocates has 80% allocated to serious capital project which you can logically borrow for. For my friend who does not like models, in Economics, there are many growth models. Like mentioned before these are arcane and only for Western class room experience and academic papers. There is the Swan and Solow Model (Neo Classical Growth model very popular presently), there is the Harrod Domar model and there is the Keynesian Growth Model but all these are unnecessary and cannot be applied to a real economy-may the US comes close but for Nigeria it is a big no. We have to get out of this mess. Me and you. We need a clear and defined path to growth. To be frank as an agrarian economy, there is little room for expansive growth. You need capital. My model is basically a time path for vigorous capital accumulation to take Nigeria away from subsistence agriculture to real industrialization. This in my opinion as a pragmatic Macroeconomist should be theme of debate by our politicians. This was why I was interested in neither Buhari nor Jonathan. Look at this way, corruption is endemic in the Nigerian society. A person votes for Buhari on Saturday and on Monday goes to pick up his international passport that he paid upwards of 27,000 as against the 12,000 real price. The anti-corruption fight was dead on arrival! I interview a few citizens and I daresay this view will most likely be shared by most reading this and they think a government that does some work can steal. Oh my word! What a loopsided view. A governor tares the road and we sing to high heaven. Dasuki is charged and we clap and nothing comes off it afterwards. The budget fiasco has come and gone and no one is protesting any more yet it was hardly changed. You think this is a winning team? I think not. You think this will take us to glory days? I think not. We need to become a producing nation. Even though my professors might think my model is a poor man's imitation of what Keynes will do they will readily admit we need to aggressively accumulate capital. As I am constrained for time I will sign off with this: "The sense of obligation to continue is present in all of us. A duty to strive is the duty of us all. I felt a call to that duty”- A. Lincoln Remember this is a FORCED GROWTH MODEL. |
tobimillar:I find it difficult comprehending why you have an issue with the word 'model'. A dictionary would be quite handy you know or just maybe you are the scatter gun type in which case I can understand. Why does a country like Nigeria not need a well articulated guideline for growth, do tell sir?! I have written this before but I will reiterate: your suggestion is passive if you are not willing to push for its implementation. Laws, laws and laws. How convenient for you to sit and wait for someone to pass the law for you. No they will pass the social media bill! For the records, folks don't even abide by the existing ones. Let's even assume the senate does not stonewall your bill how do you intend to sell such a law in a democratic country- btw all these questions brings up a process, a train of thought this is what a model is my dear friend. Though I don't think what you suggest is feasible and it is equally not right to tell people what to wear. In my model, coughs, we can implement this kind of policy with tariffs. So you are not passing any law or telling people what to wear but you leave them with no choice. Savvy? |
Education is very key in this model. Snippets of policies to revamp the educational system: Create a pool of graduates who will teach English, Math, Physics and Further Math in all Federal Secondary Schools. This will be an elite crop with high standard and a very competitive salary on a renewable 2 year contract. The minister of Education will be the best performing Secondary School Principal in a Federal Government school and not a career politician who doesn't know jack about the system. A concerted effort will be made to reverse the meteoric decline in at least 6 Federal Universities in the 6 geo political zones. We have to plans to create a silicon valley in Nigeria by massively teaching street urchins aged 12 -16 how to program Java, Javascript, C++ etcRemember this is a FORCED GROWTH MODEL |
Bits and pieces of the model We intend to take over power at least by 2023 and we will be needing the youths massively. We are still preparing the grand model which will include running for government very soon just to create more awareness, getting into power and keeping it democratically for at least 50 years till Nigeria can stand up to the US This is why you never hear me say the government should do this and that. WE WANT TO DO IT OURSELVES. You guys will be hearing from us very soon.Our model will not be perfect. It will have many downsides but we will at least gratify our conscience that we did not sit idly by. Our average age is 30. So we have hot blood coupled with over exuberance. PS: you will not add much value to this thread if you only come to suggest what the government should do and shouldn't do. Suggesting potential hiccups will be nice so we can incorporate it into this model. Cheers. Co proponent of the FORCED GROWTH MODEL. |
trillville:Your argument is stimulating me. I like your first line. I couldn't have scripted it better! This shows we need heads. Intelligent heads. Yes our plan is to flood Nigeria with industries. 1) Higher prices I know but you should factor in growth in employment. We will copiously import the equipments initially and have a well worked plan of being independent in 20 years and btw is it not better than the present status quo? 2) Location of the industries you will have to read our model. I can't give everything away. We factor in politics we're not obtuse. Do you want to come onboard? 3) We will criminalize smuggling. Look at it this way we will use propaganda to show Nigerians that not just smuggling in goods made in other countries but also patronizing non made in Nigeria goods is downright evil. China did it. Hitler did it with his Aryan ideology. So we can do it. We'd get our propaganda machine out. Don't mention it then because I will deny you. Look at my next post. |
trillville:If, if and buts were candy and nuts we'd have a great Nigeria! Pray tell what advantage has being in the WTO conferred on us. A dump ground for used cars from the US, old clothes from the UK and an occasional clanger from Italy. Exporting employment to the West and they return Kobo to us in the name of aid. In the model we only care about what favours Nigeria and possibly China. I know it like the back of my palms that China will support Nigeria if only in defiance of the West. Why do you think it will not be profitable for them. Surely its a joke! A near monopoly. Lets assume you own a company- in this case you can be a government or an ordinary business man and a government invites you to be the sole producer or nearly, in its country do you really think this will not be profitable? The only issue here will be that of trust. Will Nigeria keep the dogs away from you? China's demographics are changing as well as her economy. The focus in China is no longer dependent on Exports but they are shifting to a more consumer driven economy. I don't see why this won't work and we can't know without trying which we would somehow and very soon. I find it a bit outrageous you think we don't need technological transfer. Can you name a non Western country that achieved large scale industrialization without this? Again, though I respect your arguments, they are mere platitudes. The government should invest in infrastructure which they never will. The government should divide the country which will lead to a war, the government should pass this bill or that bill. The government should build this metro or dredge this river and they won't. The government should get me a wife too . I say these are passive suggestions. We have come to the stage where we have to force things. If we go the way you suggest, trust me there will be never be a speed rail in Lagos in your life time or mine even.I must tell myself the truth, these things will come eventually but we could be talking about 100 years from now. Again every moment we delay industrialization, we risk losing out in the global scheme of things. In the US and Japan, robots are coming to life and these will mean doing away with the cheap labour. Which will be to our detriment. Once more we are forcing things here. It's more related to the political will you talked about but it is a middle class revolution! |
UPDATE ON THE MODEL: We can produce phones in Nigeria and here's how Identify a Chinese company that will be ready to partner with us (the assumption here is that all the logistics has been thought through). Negotiate how long it will take to install a capacity to produce at least 10,000 phone every day/week. I know there are more than 50 Chinese companies that will willingly accept this 'generous' offer. Place a 500% tariff on all phones imported into Nigeria. The tariff will be calculated such that the imported phone will be at least 5 times the price of the home made phone. Like I mentioned earlier this is what South Korea did with Kia. Truly this has to be supported by citizens who are educated properly so we can steal this Chinese technology in at least 5 years and start exporting to other African countries. I still maintain that we can't wait for the perfect scenario even if they (Chinese phone company) has to produce the phones running on Nigerian made generators and fuel refined in Nigeria it is a win-win for us. Remember it is a FORCED GROWTH MODEL. |
chiddye:Once more, these are mere platitudes. I will hazard a guess and say you did not read my last post. Firstly, we need to force the matter. You can't keep waiting till everything falls into place or till you achieve a middle income of $15,000. No! You might want to look more at China. It is a model that can work. See most of the S.E Asian countries are benefiting from China although the technological advancement started from Japan. We can keep saying power this power that, this bill and that bill but we have to force this thing on ourselves. Again we can't depend on agriculture rather we will depend on agro allied industries in this forced growth model. Produce it and process it yourself. I say saturate Nigeria with industries FORCEFULLY. That passion you're using to chase Dasuki use it to think and implement ways to force industries into Nigeria. Truth is I can come up with a million and one reasons why it won't work or the other things we have to put in place for it to work; all that stops the wheel from rolling IMHO. You can't have a perfect scenario but until you start there's no telling whether it will work or not. I am not the wait till the cows come home type. I like having a plan then try to execute or die trying! Example why wait till 2018 to build a company that manufactures pencils? That year will come and nothing will happen trust me because this is not their plan and folks like me and you will keep pontificating from our ivory towers. But my proposed forced model is invite that Chinese company that sells these pencils to us. Ask them how long it will take to install the facility, negotiate for a faster date and plan on banning importation of any pencil whatsoever into Nigeria the first day that company starts producing pencils. Why do I think this will work OBJ tried it and it did. Truth again is that most Nigerian governments have had this plan like I think GEJ had this Special Economic Zone thingy-that is very popular in SE Asia and I think Kenya is starting it too but they did not force it. Once more remember this is a FORCED GROWTH model. |
Hey guys nice comments but my problem is that we do a lot of pontification myself included. That was why I needed a model. When we have a plan then we can try to force the matter. My plan generically speaking is to forcefully industrialize and re-educate Nigeria. I have many plans I need other ideologues but not just utopian ideas. Who says we can't cause the revolution that would set Nigeria on the right path. The youths will support us for sure and most importantly we will have a plan that we will be willing to put our heads on the block for. Does APC have a plan? I daresay no! PDP? a resounding no. Enough of being arm chair analysts and complaining till the cows come home. I say we do something about it! In Nigeria it doesn't take much to become a legend. There is way too many wrongs in the country. Right one or two and there you go. We can moan all we want but the status quo will perpetuate if we don't do anything. Nigeria should be flying high. We should be competing with China and the rest of the world. We have the talent, the resources the resilence. I just can't sit back and watch anymore. I have grown tired. I can't wait for them to go. They never will! The will ruin our collective future. They have no plan. Those that do will never get in. There must be someone reading this and saying to himself this is exactly my feeling. Yes we need to rally ourselves. Have a plan and take it from there. Says Lincoln: "The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country." Cheers!!! |
Ofodirinwa:... |
oduastates:This is a model, no? Though scatter gun at best. You think you can implement this without breaking it into detailed parts. In China it was called the Great Leap. You need to be methodological about it and aggressive and it comes with propaganda my brother. You need to make a Nigerian willing to kill anyone that uses a generator not made in Nigeria. Mao was ready to kill for Chinese industrialization, and kill he did- I do not countenance that though. That on its own my brother is a model. Maybe I just called it what any Economist would. Savvy? |
My thinking is always the following First off, we have a seemingly intractable challenge with power yet we import generators. This is fool hardy. We can't have it both ways if we want to grow. It's either we internalize our own problems or we're just wasting our time. One of the surest ways to industrialize right now is to "sell our soul to China". I am pretty certain China will be more than willing to do this. Our hope lies in the East and not the West (I know, it's on God! ). You can always opt out later. After all the broke up with the USSR subsequently. Let us invite that company that sells generators to us in China. Say two or three of them and promise them this: We will either ban the importation of generators or set a tariff as high as 2 times what it costs to produce the generator in Nigeria without energy.Look at it this way, MTN has been recording huge profits regardless of the dire power situation. So that company will surely brake even and more. The price of generator will be high yes but we are buying and selling to ourselves. We are not import unemployment. This is what Korea did with Kia if I am not mistaken. It is called protectionist policy. Let the Chinese firm invest here and sell within since most Chinese firms are government owned this agreement can be reached "after selling our soul " I am kidding anyway.Nigeria's deficit to GDP is just 2.18% which is a good thing. We can borrow against our expectation and the budget should be 80:20. 80% capital and 20% recurrent. I believe that if we focus on policies along this line, Nigeria will be growing at a rate of about 22% every year for at least 5 years which means we can borrow more money to saturate Nigeria with industries. Industries! Chinese industries all around Nigeria. China did something along these lines and though I am no communist, I think it should pretty much work if the middle class take over this country. This is a snippet of my thought... Since only one person has indicated interest, I think I will sign off here. Cheers!!! |
Maybe you think fighting educational decay is not as important as fighting corruption but consider this first The Nigerian stock exchange a true reflection of the abilities of our Economic and Financial professionals just has over 5,000 deals per day. In South Africa is north of 60,000. Since the 1930s a special instrument and very important called short selling has been traded in the NYSE but most traders on the Nigerian bourse dunno what it is. I don't want to digress. I have advanced my industrialization argument in some circles and the constant question I get is: but Nigeria just has the capacity to generate 5,000+ megawatts and this is my thinking about this... |
Maybe I can initiate some topics for discourse here. First and foremost we need to rethink our educational system. It encapsulates everything wrong with Nigeria. I know a couple of people who went to government primary and secondary schools and can't read in English even if their lives depended on it. How many if any of nairalanders completed their math text book in secondary school? I didn't! I thought it didn't really matter but in retrospection it does. The problem starts from primary schools and then spills over to every sector of the economy. Our university education is a joke. We need at least one working universities without all the dross we have if you know what I mean. Without quality education, forget we can't industrialize because first off we need to copiously import industrial materials and then learn how to manufacture them ourselves. In Europe, they teach them linear algebra (at least the basics in high school). ... |
Paulpaulpaul:I took it for granted that every nairalander knows how to contact any poster. I have posted my email address before and got banned (I was told not to drag posters off for personal chats) and btw I wouldn't want the charlattans to shoot me an email ![]() Cool you are interested what is your background-academics... |
Hi Nairalanders! I have grown tired of the mess that is Nigeria and I have been thinking seriously for sometime. I am hoping to find a partner(s) preferably an Economist to work together with on a model to industrialize Nigeria. I am presently working on a mini article but the model should be the bigger picture. The crux of the model is to involve China in Nigeria the way China involved the USSR in its industrialization. My motivations and turn offs: I have gotten tired of Nigerian politics and our bereft politicians. I am no fan of Jonathan or Buhari. I hate tribalism with passion. I don't think corruption was/is Nigeria's biggest problem. I quote someone-"you can always take the moral high ground with more money in your pocket...". I think poverty is accountable for upwards of 80% of the social challenges we face. I rather think setting up strong and independent institutions is way better than "fighting corruption". Africa needs a road map to industrialization. I think Nigeria can provide that. I try to be one of the most unbiased persons you will find around (when I am biased, I state it though). I can actually take my brother to court if he deserves it. Ultimately I like this guy... http://www.economist.com/news/christmas/21568587-shot-killed-song-jiaoren-was-not-heard-around-world-it-might-have-changed PS: I hope for the life of me that this doesn't come off as being narcissistic. |
tuale4u:I reckon you're not an Economist else it beggars believe you think the current regime is okay. Maybe till the reserves runs out you will understand there is nothing okay about it and please China is different for a million and one reasons. |
989900:I was passing by however, I wish to debunk some assertions you made on here: Pump prices will go up? Remind me if this is not the case already?! Our Foreign debt increases? How so? Do we service the foreign debt in Naira or something? Hyperinflation: Really you think if we devalue it would be worse than an almost 2 percentage point increment? Demand for salary raise: oh spare me this. Prices are on the rise already. Stock market loss ***staring curiously*** boss this will have the opposite effect. Brain Drain? Btw I am clutching at straws to figure what you mean by per capita productivity. I know productivity in Macroeconomics is output/total labour supply never heard per capita productivity but maybe I am just being a pedant .I hate this devaluation debate because to me it appears cinch. I hate discussing it because the points seem way too obvious for me but I thought to chip one or two things in here. PS: I get worked up when people say devaluation will lead to inflation- a phenomena we are already experiencing with our costly forex regime. |
Philadelphia:So have you heard back from them? |
ekechil:You might be making a mistake by doing that. There are accommodations online that you can get and trust me you will be grateful the embassy enforces that. When some folks told me how much they were spending in hotel rooms, I was glad I paid upfront and the only thing I had to do was to inform the accommodation of the day I was arriving. If you can get your own accommodation contract. |
ekechil:You don't book appointments for Spanish visa applications. You just turn up! |
ekechil:Well I reckon that step was not written here but if you have an urgent legalization, it pays to tell them. They always considered me every time I asked. You've run out of time and they will definitely tell you to get a document from your possibly adjusting your resumption period. This document like everything you should be going with should be original. To be sure I had my school send one to me because I resumed after three weeks. As for how to salvage the situation, you can still shoot them an email because you are really hard pressed for time. You should at least give them 14 days before travel date to process the visa and but you apparently will fall short of that. |
sahm4u2nv:Read the thread from page 1. I mean, the very least you need to scale the Spanish Embassy hurdle is to be enterprising which also holds true for searching for a school that will admit you. |
ekechil:I meant you should photocopy every freaking thing you are going to that embassy with so long as it is a document. To be safer, make two copies. |
dmariowizzy:More opportunities than Europe. It couldn't get better than that. |
dmariowizzy:Most young European folk speak in English. Apparently globalization did not just affect us... |
I reckon this is a no brainer especially from the legal perspective. In Europe if you are not in Germany or the Uk the chances of getting employment are at a premium. Maybe the Scandinavia could be a good prospect but if you ask me I would choose the USA every time. |
aged 12 -16 how to program Java, Javascript, C++ etc
This is why you never hear me say the government should do this and that. WE WANT TO DO IT OURSELVES. You guys will be hearing from us very soon.