Outstanding writer, Adedayo Ademuwagun has compiled a list of 18 states where Jonathan might lose the polls.

With just three weeks from now to the date of the general election, regular commentator on electoral issues, disclosed that the people rooting for President Jonathan are keenly looking forward to March 28 and anticipating a victory for him.

Nevertheless, there are some states where the president might lose this election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 18 states where this might happen.

1. Niger
Niger is the only state in the north central that Jonathan lost in 2011. He won the other states in the zone. Nigers mainly Muslim population might be a difficulty for Jonathan again this time.

2. Yobe
Buhari has the upper hand in Yobe and the rest of the north east. Last time Jonathan lost heavily to Buhari in this state. Buhari will likely sweep the votes here this month. Its a core Muslim state.

3. Gombe
Jonathan lost Gombe to Buhari too in 2011. He probably doesnt have much chance here this year either. The Muslim majority in the state isnt leaning in his direction.

4. Borno
Borno has largely been a war zone for some time now. Boko Haram seized parts of the state and imposed a great deal of terror here. The people will probably not be voting for the president because of the way hes handled the fight against insurgency in their area. Buhari will probably win it here.

5. Bauchi
It was an easy win for Buhari in Bauchi last time where he pocketed 82% of the votes. Jonathan almost certainly has no chance of winning in Bauchi this year or in any state in the north east for that matter.

6. Zamfara
Zamfara is a core Muslim state in the north west. Buhari is king here as he is in the rest of the north west. Last time he cleanly swept this zone and Jonathan lost in all the states including Zamfara. This zone is Jonathans worst nightmare.

7. Sokoto
Heres another mainly Muslim state that will be hard for Jonathan to win. He lost here last time even though the PDP runs things in the state. Its not likely he can turn around the situation this year.

8. Kebbi
Buhari defeated Jonathan in Kebbi state in 2011. Hes apparently going to win it here again this time. Jonathans popularity in the area hasnt improved pretty much in the last four years.

9. Katsina
This is where Buhari comes from. His victory in this state is undisputable.

10. Kano
Kano is another stronghold of Buhari. It was a walkover for him here in the last election. Now the APC is also in charge in Kano. Jonathan barely has a chance in this state.

11. Kaduna
Jonathan narrowly lost to Buhari here in 2011 even though the state has a Muslim majority. Its another state where he might lose this month. However, the state is PDP.

12. Jigawa
Buhari beat Jonathan in Jigawa last year and is a lot more popular than the president in this state. But Jonathan might still draw the votes given his party is in charge in the state.

13. Rivers
The governor Rotimi Amaechi is one of Jonathans principal enemy and hes Buharis campaign chief. Jonathan knocked out Buhari completely the last time, but this time the APC have the momentum and the equation has changed.

14. Imo
Buharis party runs the government in this Igbo state and the governor Rochas Okorocha is highly popular among the masses. He can and will probably influence the voters here in favour of his partys candidate. A Jonathan victory here is uncertain.

15. Oyo
Jonathan packed the most votes in the west last time, but things have since changed with the APC merger. Now the west is rooting for Buhari, and Oyo is no exception. Jonathans popularity has greatly dipped among the Yorubas.

16. Osun
Even last time when Jonathan won in other Yoruba states, he lost in this one. The governor Rauf Aregbesola is so popular in the state and hes definitely campaigning for his party, the APC. Jonathan virtually has no chance of winning here.

17. Ogun
Ogun is obviously leaning towards Buhari and the APC like the other Yoruba states. Jonathan hasnt got a strong enough following here to challenge the APC.

18. Lagos
Protesters will predictably pour out on the streets of Lagos if Jonathan happens to win there. Hes the least popular candidate on the ballot among the Lagos people. He beat Buhari in this city the last time, but now its a lot harder for him to repeat that feat in this election.

I just found out the meaning of OP , like if you don't know the meaning of OP but have been using it on nairaland



MODIFIED : OP, remove Lagos and Niger from that list, I know what am saying, APC might win the Lagos governorship, but PDP will win the presidency in Lagos

Dream onnnnnnnnnn

paulabola:
Outstanding writer, Adedayo Ademuwagun has compiled a list of 18 states where Jonathan might lose the polls.

With just three weeks from now to the date of the general election, regular commentator on electoral issues, disclosed that the people rooting for President Jonathan are keenly looking forward to March 28 and anticipating a victory for him.

Nevertheless, there are some states where the president might lose this election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 18 states where this might happen.

1. Niger
Niger is the only state in the north central that Jonathan lost in 2011. He won the other states in the zone. Nigers mainly Muslim population might be a difficulty for Jonathan again this time.

2. Yobe
Buhari has the upper hand in Yobe and the rest of the north east. Last time Jonathan lost heavily to Buhari in this state. Buhari will likely sweep the votes here this month. Its a core Muslim state.

3. Gombe
Jonathan lost Gombe to Buhari too in 2011. He probably doesnt have much chance here this year either. The Muslim majority in the state isnt leaning in his direction.

4. Borno
Borno has largely been a war zone for some time now. Boko Haram seized parts of the state and imposed a great deal of terror here. The people will probably not be voting for the president because of the way hes handled the fight against insurgency in their area. Buhari will probably win it here.

5. Bauchi
It was an easy win for Buhari in Bauchi last time where he pocketed 82% of the votes. Jonathan almost certainly has no chance of winning in Bauchi this year or in any state in the north east for that matter.

6. Zamfara
Zamfara is a core Muslim state in the north west. Buhari is king here as he is in the rest of the north west. Last time he cleanly swept this zone and Jonathan lost in all the states including Zamfara. This zone is Jonathans worst nightmare.

7. Sokoto
Heres another mainly Muslim state that will be hard for Jonathan to win. He lost here last time even though the PDP runs things in the state. Its not likely he can turn around the situation this year.

8. Kebbi
Buhari defeated Jonathan in Kebbi state in 2011. Hes apparently going to win it here again this time. Jonathans popularity in the area hasnt improved pretty much in the last four years.

9. Katsina
This is where Buhari comes from. His victory in this state is undisputable.

10. Kano
Kano is another stronghold of Buhari. It was a walkover for him here in the last election. Now the APC is also in charge in Kano. Jonathan barely has a chance in this state.

11. Kaduna
Jonathan narrowly lost to Buhari here in 2011 even though the state has a Muslim majority. Its another state where he might lose this month. However, the state is PDP.

12. Jigawa
Buhari beat Jonathan in Jigawa last year and is a lot more popular than the president in this state. But Jonathan might still draw the votes given his party is in charge in the state.

13. Rivers
The governor Rotimi Amaechi is one of Jonathans principal enemy and hes Buharis campaign chief. Jonathan knocked out Buhari completely the last time, but this time the APC have the momentum and the equation has changed.

14. Imo
Buharis party runs the government in this Igbo state and the governor Rochas Okorocha is highly popular among the masses. He can and will probably influence the voters here in favour of his partys candidate. A Jonathan victory here is uncertain.

15. Oyo
Jonathan packed the most votes in the west last time, but things have since changed with the APC merger. Now the west is rooting for Buhari, and Oyo is no exception. Jonathans popularity has greatly dipped among the Yorubas.

16. Osun
Even last time when Jonathan won in other Yoruba states, he lost in this one. The governor Rauf Aregbesola is so popular in the state and hes definitely campaigning for his party, the APC. Jonathan virtually has no chance of winning here.

17. Ogun
Ogun is obviously leaning towards Buhari and the APC like the other Yoruba states. Jonathan hasnt got a strong enough following here to challenge the APC.

18. Lagos
Protesters will predictably pour out on the streets of Lagos if Jonathan happens to win there. Hes the least popular candidate on the ballot among the Lagos people. He beat Buhari in this city the last time, but now its a lot harder for him to repeat that feat in this election.

OPI ANU,

Are you sure?

Well, I don't think it will go exactly as you have predicted..

APC will win Rivers and Imo states? Chai! Diarisgoduooooooooo

APC will win Niger and Jigawa state kwa? Iko Mbakara will say "Wishful thinking/dreaming"

CrazyScientist:
I just found out the meaning of OP , like if you don't know the meaning of OP but have been using it on nairaland



MODIFIED : OP, remove Lagos and Niger from that list, I know what am saying, APC might win the Lagos governorship, but PDP will win the presidency in Lagos

whch niger are u talking abt?..aside from 1999....since. 2003 dat buhari strt his. quest for aso rock...he has never Lost niger....go and check d records

Gboliwe:
APC will win Rivers and Imo states? Chai! Diarisgoduooooooooo

APC will win Niger and Jigawa state kwa? Iko Mbakara will say "Wishful thinking/dreaming"

CPC got 85 percent in niger state during d 2011 election when d governor is in gud term wit gej. Gej has absolutely no chance in niger state.