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|How Far Can Good Luck Take You? by saintandsinnerz: 1:21pm On Mar 31, 2015|
The just concluded presidential election in Nigeria will go down in history as the most keenly contested election in Nigeria! As the results trickle in state by state, the two supporters of the two major political parties- APC and PDP have started rejoicing or sorrowing depending on the side of the divide you are in. But judging by the results that have been released by INEC, it is becoming crystal clear, that the major opposition party - the APC, may likely win the election barring any last minute "miracle"! Being a Goodluck supporter, I was not happy at the initial stage, but then I ask myself who am I to compare to what the majority of Nigerians want.
The question in many people's mouth now is what went wrong for PDP and President Goodluck jonathan? Where did they get it all wrong? What made APC so strong that they are about to dethrone a sitting president? I will attempt an explanation to all these questions.
*Good luck cannot take you too far in politics: President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s political career has been propelled by good fortune. If there is anybody that benefits from his name, then he is the person! This is a man who became the deputy governor of Bayelsa state without being a politician. He didn’t lobby or campaigned to become the deputy governor, he was just leading his quiet private life before fate favoured him despite other people who really jostled for the position. The same thing happened when he became the state governor. The coast was made clear for him by the impeachment of his boss, Dipreiye Alamesieye. He rode the luck of the misfortune of his principal. He never struggled for it! Fast-forward it to when he became the vice President, according some analysts; he was never in the picture, until Obasanjo dropped Peter Odili at the last minute. He was picked to run with the late Yar’Adua, who later died and he became the president. Again, he rode on luck and misfortune of his principal. Though he later won the presidential election in 2011, but he was massively aided by the overwhelming sentiments among the Nigerian people who wanted a man that will understand their plight and in him they saw all that. So, in all, Goodluck Jonathan has not really struggled for any political office he has held. He has virtually ridden on luck rather than his political prowess! And in politics, there is extent luck can take you.
*The fuel subsidy issue: Goodluck Jonathan removed the subsidy in fuel in the first week of January 2012, when travelers who travelled to different parts of Nigeria were about coming back from their holidays. As a result of this, many people suffered untold hardship; hence they accused the president of insensitivity. This particular incident did not help his cause and really affected his image. Many people saw him as being insensitive and care less.
*The PDP crisis: President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan failed woefully in managing the crisis that erupted in the PDP! He allowed it to fester, until most of the PDP governors defected to the opposition APC. His inability to manage this very well helped in swelling the might of APC and at the same time weakened the powers and influence of his party, PDP. The result of those defections is what we are seeing now.
*Inability to remove or sanction erring ministers: the president failed to remove erring ministers who were accused of either corruption or negligence. The consequence of this is that the opposition APC now capitalized on this, to accuse the president of covering and abetting corruption. This had a great dent in the image of the president.
All these and more are some of the reasons that made the president to become unpopular. Now I will briefly look at what made APC strong.
*A robust Social Media campaign: APC used the social media to attack the Goodluck’s government effectively. They used it to permeate the sensibilities of Nigeria, highlighting the failures of GEJ’s govt, while at the same time using it to downplay any achievement his administration has recorded.
*The North and South Alliance: If there is a reason why PDP lost this election, it is the alliance between the Southwest and the North which gave birth to APC! I don’t need to dwell on how this alliance affected the chances of PDP.
*Frustrations among the Youths: The APC successfully tapped into the general disaffection among Nigerian youths as a result of unemployment and economic empowerment. They carved out a change slogan that tapped into this wide spread frustrations. Hence they were seen as the new face of hope among the teeming youths.
*A weak president: The APC capitalized on the perceived weak demeanour of the president. They knew the president lacks the political sagacity to fight off a strong opposition. I can’t imagine an Obasanjo losing this election if he were in Goodluck’s shoes. Goodluck’s weakness made him not to fully utilize the power of incumbency.
All these and more are some of the reasons why the PDP may likely lose this election. However, all in all, the Nigerian people are the ultimate winner. Now the challenges facing the incoming government are huge! Top among them is the issue of Niger Delta crisis that may likely return. How will they manage it? The unemployment issue! If the new APC govt fails to provide a substantial amount of job in the first year of its rule, they will face a groundswell criticism and even rejection.
NB: Please this is an opinion article and nothing more. The results are still being collated so anything can still happen.
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