Jaypea98:

OP I respect your sheer will.But the truth is that your calculations were a little bit Shallow.
But there is still a lot of hope u know ,mainly because their manifesto was formulated just about last year by great Nigerian economists like Pat Utomi and i m sure these challenges were put into contemplation

jmoore:
I am only interested on how he can stabilize world oil price.

barcanista:
This is how things work....

Nigeria Generates revenue from Oil export...

Nigeria PAY Oil companies their own share for Operational Cost (mind you Nigeria is even owing these people).


Na wa 4 you o

trillville:

Please, I hope you are not adding the offshore crude oil to your ND figure? Try to separate onshore ND crude from offshore Nigerian crude when u are making any point.

I believe Nigeria also earns money from lng sales and customs too. Agencies such as FAAN make a killing too off taxes at our airports. So please let's calculate government revenue properly.

gists:

Try and be objective. She also mentioned internally generated revenue.

My only concern is the premise that all the revenue generated belong to FG.

anonimi:



IF Nigeria breaks, your offshore oil will belong to the ND country that will emerge.

Your other revenue sources only yield micro peanuts compared to ND crude oil and are also derived from oil related activities. So..........

trillville:

If Nigeria breaks, the land mass of the entire ND is too small to claim the deep sea oil wells according to international law so you are wrong my brother.

Obiagelli:

You are absolutely correct,
10 trillion x 0.52 (52%) = 5.2 trillion naira,

5.2 - 4.6 (2014 budget) = 0.6 trillion.


Remember i put crude production at 2million barrels per day even when the link says 2.5 million bpd, i have not touch other sources of income.

anonimi:


I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue.

Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country

ochejoseph:
‎
Honestly Buhari and the APC made many unrealistic promises in the lead up to the election!

Nigerians will hold him and the APC to their words as regards issues like 

1. 5000 naira social security project for the unemployed Young Nigerians

2. 24 hours power supply or 12000MW in 8 months 

3. Naira dollar parity or substantial appreciation 

4. Feeding project for pupils etc 

Oby my dear your analysis did not capture other critical components, statutory deductions and the revenue sharing formula (FG /States /LGA )
Revenue accruals is not like debit and credit. 


Whether or Not Buhari and the APC has the capacity to deliver on these promises ONLY TIME WILL TELL! 

For the sake of Nigeria I pray he succeeds 

May God Continue to Bless this great Nation! 

barcanista:
@Obiagelli:

FIRS has just told you that Nigeria generate N4.69tr, so what is your argument?
Where are you manufacturing your additional 5trn from? Do you understand economics and mathematics at all? Let me explain for you incase you don't understand how things work...

We export 2m barrel of crude oil daily. These money DoES NOT solely belong to the FG. The OICs and other players takes share from it. Nigeria get some percentage from this money. The FIRS just told you that ALL our revenue for 2014(including tax,import duties etc) stand at N4.67 trn. So where are you getting the additional 5trn? Or where do you think the 4trn came from?

This is how things work....

Nigeria Generates revenue from Oil export...

Nigeria PAY Oil companies their own share for Operational Cost (mind you Nigeria is even owing these people).

Nigeria earning in 2014 from oil is $77b ie 1.5tr. Meanwhile, this money is shared between States, FG and LG with about 54% of all generated money going to the Federal(?) While the rest are shared among States and LG

Na wa 4 you o
www.punchng.com/business/energy/nigeria-earned-77bn-from-oil-export-in-2014/

Obiagelli need to enroll for some classes.

Obiagelli:
Officially, Nigeria exports 2 million barrels of crude oil
daily. At the current price of 60 US dollars per barrel, that
translates into 120 million US dollars.

120 million x 365day = 43,800,000,000

43 billion dollars @ 60% ( rumoured sharing formula between Nigeria and oil companies)

That means Nigeria makes 25.8 billion dollars annually.

$25.8 billion x 200 naira = 5.1 trillion naira.

You did not factor in cost of production in your revenue projection. Federal government shares profit from crude oil sales with the oil companies. Crude oil selling $60/barrel does not therefore translate to income of $60/barrel. This is how people like SLS came up with missing $20billion. Anyway GMB will soon be in charge. From 29 May 2015, there will still be freedom of speech but as for freedom after speech you are OYO.


Nigeria's 2014 budget was N4.6 trillion meaning we still have about 0.5 trillion naira change.
www.channelstv.com/2014/04/09/nigerian-senate-passes-4-6-trillion-naira-2014-budget/


FEDERAL INLAND REVENUE

Nigeria generated N4.69tn Revenue in 2014

www.thisdaylive.com/articles/firs-generates-n4-69tn-revenue-in-2014/200484/

Adding N4.69 trillion (firs) + 5.1 trillion (crude oil) = 9.79 trillion.

If our budget was N4.6 trillion then we have a balance of 5.1 trillion naira that nobody accounts for.

Barcanista asked where we will find 1.8 trillion to take care of our most vulnerable citizens, this balance of 5.1 trillion will be taken away from the pockets of criminals and militants.




EDIT.


I forgot the FG gets 52% of total income, even at that we have a balance of 0.6 trillion naira which is sufficient for the first stage of the social programs.
The APC government has said one of its major income earners is the mining industry.

This plans with financial discipline is very much achievable.

Please note that my analysis is based our major source of income ( oil and taxes), i have not touched other income earnings.

Ngasky:
Good and simple analysis.
Remember the PTF Program the economic prophets of doom both local and international wrote it off as a failed embarked policy at inception. But Nigerians knows better after the program was rounded up. Even the international doom sayers had to admit to the success of the program even without any foreign lending. And who is in charge?
With the op analysis it is possible to achieve the goals.
Even the outgoing govt has the resources to do this but the biggest undoing factor of JEG's failure is STEALING (sorry thats not corruption and cant sack becouse of stealing according to ...)
I believe with all achieved 65-75% of Nigerias income/budget was stolen, thats only 25-35% was utilised. Imaging utilising 90-95% what will be the situation on ground?
If GMB Can fight stealing/corruption Nigeria will be the best destination in Africa in 2 years time.

anonimi:


I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue.

Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country

anonimi:


I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue.

Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country

gists:


Try and be objective. She also mentioned internally generated revenue.


My only concern is the premise that all the revenue generated belong to FG.

Flets:
OP like many Nigerians are shallow economists. So many holes can be easily picked from the quack calculations

1a. Where is the 13% derivation to the oil producing states? Or you assumed the FG takes the full 60% of crude sales revenue? .....
and even after 13% deduction, only 54% of the residual 47% (excluding 13% for producing states and 40% for the IOCs) of total crude sales revenue goes to the FG.

1b. FG budget is for FG expenditure alone. FG does not budget for states...... so where are the state allocations funded from since they are not captured in the FG budget?.... for your education, 46% of the residual revenue is meant for states and LGs.

2. Where do you think the capital cost of oil and gas projects come from for which the FG pays its 60% share? Or you think the oil flows on its own without spending money?

3. 2.65trillion of the 4.69trillion IGR you quoted on FIRS is already petroleum profit. Go back check the details and confirm you have double dipped same funds on both sources.

4. Your assumption that FG takes all the IGR generated by FIRS is wrong. Discount the amount accruable to the states first in your calculations.

5. What funds the external reserves or all revenues must be spent on recurrent expenditure?

Our revenue economics is not as simple as you lot think. Now that political campaigns are over, its time to educate Nigerians that our revenues are not limitless and some campaign points are not achievable albeit sustainable.

Assuming, Buhari miracously finds some fraction of the funds required for the welfare programs, how do you identify the poorest of the poor Nigerians deserving of the 5K?, What database is available to identify the welfare recipients? We even struggle to identify bonafide Nigerians much more low income earners.

Every effort to defend economic impossibilties reveals the shallowness of the incoming government.

Truckpusher:
Very funny thread and yet people are commenting and churning out values from their asss.

I hope that they are aware that Nigeria has not been able to pay their own share of the operational cost to these companies which has forced companies like Shell to abandon some of their fields onshore though oil theft and insecurity played a role too.

Make una dey argue I dey come.

Obiagelli:

Since when did FIRS start collecting crude oil revenue?

Btw using words like breaking it down to my level does not make you any smart. Go and read the FIRS link.

Obiagelli:

If politicians still less, we have no business borrowing. Are you saying oil companies gets more than 40%? I have reliable information but i can't find a link for it due to secrecy.

anonimi:


I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue.

Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country

jpphilips:



I agree with most of the things you wrote but number 2, is pre 2004, the ingenuity of the Obasanjo's administration.
Post 2004 operate a PSC, you can read it up.
Nigeria doesn't need to pay up front for oil and gas exploration.

doctokwus:
You failed to add 2 other potential sources of revenue:
(1) A more rigorous tax policy.D new govt may borrow a leaf from d way Lagos state government tanked its revenue from tax alone. Conservatively when more income generating streams come on line and many tax dodging individuals and companies are brought on stream nationwide,that could add another N500b- N1t.
(2) When loopholes from customs at d ports, and land borders are plugged another conservative N500-N1t cud be brought on line annually.
There is also d proposal to increase VAT. Even if its increased from 5% presently to 7.5%,annual revenue could see another N1t jump.
So conservatively you are looking at N2trillion additional income from untapped sources.
The social programs are doable.We should not also forgot that the 'a meal a day' school feeding policy would also create secondary employment opportunities:the food vendor contracted for each school or group of schools has to employ at least an assistant if not 2;he/she has to regularly go to the market to buy food ingredients,this increases d revenue of that seller,she has to transport her items to the school etc.These may look simplistic and menial in outlook but its these little streams of steady employment and income that gets economies moving because they create a chain.All these people also have to pay tax in one way or the other, no matter how little.
At the end of d day,d government may not even be spending as much as budgeted for d feeding policy and other social needs.
Its only those who don't know GMB that can doubt d workability of his policies or his sincerity of purpose.Even if at d end of d day,some of these social programs are not fully implemented, GMB himself would come out to say why and believe me,his forthrightness on whatever issue,would douse any doubters, except those so used to being mischievous and still bearing a deep seated hate for having lost out in stealing and corrupting this nation under previous governments, particularly that of d monster that will handover May 28 or 29.
GMB needs prayers, support and belief in d Nigerian project he is about to undertake, not hateful,spiteful,mischievous writeups from those whose hearts and souls are as bile filled as that of d devil himself.

anonimi:


I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue.

Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country

barcanista:
This is how things work....

Nigeria Generates revenue from Oil export...

Nigeria PAY Oil companies their own share for Operational Cost (mind you Nigeria is even owing these people).


Na wa 4 you o

barcanista:
This is how things work....

Nigeria Generates revenue from Oil export...

Nigeria PAY Oil companies their own share for Operational Cost (mind you Nigeria is even owing these people).

Nigeria earning in 2014 from oil is $77b. ALl these money does not go to the government. Don't forget "Operational Cost". If Nigeria makes as much as $77b as its own share, we won't be crying for loan. Pls do your research and stop misleading people.

Na wa 4 you o
www.punchng.com/business/energy/nigeria-earned-77bn-from-oil-export-in-2014/

trillville:


Offshore comprises of continental shelves and deep sea oil fields. The ND cannot claim water bodies as part of ND land.