Jideams:



Wow, that is fantastic, good return. I have never held a stock that long but that is good. true, Fundamental is key, most of the stock i trade on technical has a strong fundamental back ground. Let me know when next you have a good one and I could trade it along with you or run a dummy trade along side. You will see how the technical will compliment the fundamental on entry and exit. the issue I have with trading only fundamental is that you are likely to hold on when the stock is dropping in price for no reason. The reason might eventually pop up during the next quater.

Never technically trade a stock without a strong fundamental basis.... Rule number 2.

You are right, technical analysis and fundamentals work side by side. I closed out my wwav position today because I don't think any other buyer will offer a bigger bid for the company than Danone already did. They paid 20% above the 30 day moving average in an all cash deal. Should another buyer take the plunge and offer them a higher bid, then the stock would rise some more. I've noticed recent blockbuster M&A activity in the food industry, ex Kraft-Heniz, Danone & whitewave and now Mondelez is bidding for Herseys.
Check out this stock CECE I'm up 52% in 3months. U can run your analysis on it. I will also let you know when I initiate a new position like you said. I bought a few shares in SNV & CITI post Brexit. These are Financials and I think their day to shine is near.

Next Buy

USCR

Market Review - Week Ending 15/07/2016

Good day everyone,

Attached is the performance of all the indexes close of business 15/08/2016. Obviously you can see that all the markets are in a new high at the exception of Nasdaq (the tech stock). While taking a look as the performance over time, I noticed we had been in a sideways to downwards movement since January 2015. This is not a correction, but period of uncertainty and low investors sentiment.

What does this mean?
As you know 75% of stocks following the market, so what we want to do is find stocks with good fundamentals and buy them at a good technical point when the general market is up and strong.

The Big questions are

What do we buy?

When do we buy?

How long do we hold on?

When do we sell?

How much do we buy?

Where do we set our stop loss?

Where do we take our profits?

Buying stock is one side of the story, once you buy without emotion, you are now in the trade and need to make decision of either to hold on or sell. Due to this, I have decided to start up a dummy session anytime I see a good trade. This would be traded as I do trade my normal stocks, and add to my position as the stock progresses in uptrend.

This trading will be carried out using a dummy platform with an account of 100k dollars. Each stock will be traded at 10K each and will hold not more than 10 stocks at a time. Let us see how far we can go till the end of the year.

USCR in the article above this has been set up for a new trade next week. Having set this up, I do not have to be there personally to initiate the trade. The condition for trade has been set and once the conditions are met, all the trades will be executed. This takes emotion out of my trade. As we progress new positons will be taken and trade will be closed at Target profit level unless we see room for further profit.

Dummy Trade Buy

BSFT

Market/Stock_Relationship.

The graph below show the correlation between the general market S&P 500 and the underlying stocks XRS in this case.

After a thorough and convincing fundamental analysis of XRS, I have decided to do a technical analysis and compare it to the spy on a week by week performance. Although there are times when the stock’s performance was outside of the market, 75% of the time the movement was in sync with the market.

This shows you the power of technical analysis as the most appropriate timing factor to enter or exit a trade. The choice of the stock would have been on fundamental analysis, the timing is down to technical. In addition to this, your trading must be in line with the market.

Strong stocks (good fundamentals) will do everything to go up in price, but the advancement is also dependent on the general market as shown below. You might have a variation of one week and not more.

So if you look closely during your technical analysis, you will see when to reduce your risk and get ready for any eventuality.

10242

I just stumbled into this thread and have seen great value in it. Thanks everyone. I recently opened an account with Ameritrade, but still struggling learning the software. Am really interested on trading the breakouts. A few of my settings on pops them up when the deal is done already. Whats your though on setting up trade based on breakout? Great job @jodeams

ifeykay:
I just stumbled into this thread and have seen great value in it. Thanks everyone. I recently opened an account with Ameritrade, but still struggling learning the software. Am really interested on trading the breakouts. A few of my settings on pops them up when the deal is done already. Whats your though on setting up trade based on breakout? Great job @jodeams

Setting up trades based on breakouts is quite easy and straight forward. It I one of the best way to trade if you are a swing trader as it takes emotions out of your trading. You define your entry price and your stop loss a day before the market opens.

Yesterday I did set up four breakout trade for today on a dummy trade to test my strategy. I do not expect all four to be executed today but they will be executed before the end of the week all things been equal.

These are my breakout conditions

Buy stock XYZ if the price rise above 0.50% above yesterday's closing price.
Do not by XYZ if the price rises more than 1.5% above yesterday's closing, but by it if the price drops between .05 and 1.5%.
After Buying XYZ, if for any reason they price drops 10% below my buy price, sell all stocks, no questions asked.
After Buyiin XYZ if price rises above 20% in the same week for any reason, sell all and hold my profit.

that is what you see in all the trades i have set above.

Let us see what happens at the end of the week.

Dummy Trade

BSFT

This trade executed yesterday while I was away and got me into the position as expected. Waiting for two other trades to execute before the end of the week.

See the graph below and the opening position. Profit now at 165 Dollars and two positions waiting to execute.

Looking at the chart and your buy target of 45.01, It seems you are rather buying the resistance than support or near support. Any reason for that?

ifeykay:
Looking at the chart and your buy target of 45.01, It seems you are rather buying the resistance than support or near support. Any reason for that?

Really depends on trading strategy. In reality, I do not buy resistance, when i trade I enter my trade when a stock in making a new high (entering new grounds) in the last 52 weeks. The buy price is always above the highest price in the last 52 weeks. Actually I set my buy price at 0.5% above the previous day's close entering into a new high. When i trade support, I do that when am already in a trade and buy additional position when the stock bounces of 10 or 20 day moving average.

I hardly enter a new trade at support level. As I said, it depends on what you tested and works for you.

Have a look at XRS below, I hold this position in real money, on a good day, the stock touched my 20 days moving average and the middle of the bolinger band. At this point i bounced, which is a good sign, but I could not add to the position as the company releases result next week and it can be volatile.

This stock is already up 31% so if the result is unfavourable, it might drop 15% and i will sell. The plan is not to add to the position but to set my entry level at 5% above the previous day's closing price on that day. If the result is acceptable, the stock will bounce up around 10% and i should be able to capture 5% of it. If it drops, i will kill the trade at 10% loss and walk away with 20% profit.

In short, we must know what we will do at any time before the trade, this keeps us in control and removed emotion from trading.

Dummy Trade BSFT

VOLUME

The importance of volume in a trade is very important and cannot be overemphasised, you need to pay attention to the total average volume of trade a day and the spike in volume each day or better still at the end of the week.
Rules.

Ensure you trade stocks with an average trading daily volume of not less than 500k. The higher the volume of stocks traded, the lesser the volatility and the easier it is to hold the stock for a long time. Price movement in stocks is due to institutional traders buying stock and not investors like myself. Institutional investors trade in high volumes, and they do it over a period of time in order to get a reasonable position in the stock. This is quietly done over time before other investors catch wind of the stock.

The ideal is to capitalise on the buying season of the institutional traders and buy at the same time. Please avoid stocks less than 20 dollars in price, and with volume less than 500k. IT is not the amount of stock we hold that matters but the % increase in price. I will rather buy 4 stocks for 1000 than buy 500 stock at 2 dollar each.

ifeykay:
I just stumbled into this thread and have seen great value in it. Thanks everyone. I recently opened an account with Ameritrade, but still struggling learning the software. Am really interested on trading the breakouts. A few of my settings on pops them up when the deal is done already. Whats your though on setting up trade based on breakout? Great job @jodeams

Hi, please how did you get a social security number or ITIN required to open the account. Thats whats holding me back now

The Market.

Ideally I do this on weekends, but just checking Midweek to confirm we are Bullish. YES we are... its safe to make new buys.

The Market week ending 22/July/2016

As usual, the Market direction continue to show a Bullish trend, with two major indexes on a new high. Note, a change in direction of any of the Major indexes will signal the possible reversal of the market. More often than not, people tend to rely on the media discussion on the direction of the Market to take a defensive move. We need to be able to read between the lines before the Media start speculating and every start selling off.

To be head of other trader and not the market, you much have and appreciate the understanding of technical analysis and make decisions off this. Yes, we might get it wrong at times ( sell off too early) but I will rather sell and be in money than get salvaged by the market.

For this week, Market remains intact although volume was low as expected. This is the beginning of the holiday season so trading volume will be lower.
I will continue with the analysis of our existing position XRS and LGIH in the update below.

Live positions week Ending 22 July 2016

Comments soon.
10975

Dummy Positions.

Please find attached the position of my Dummy trade. This trade following the same trading process as a live trade using paper Money. The plan is to track this positions till I have enough money to buy them, or buy them once i sell off one of my Life trade due to signs of weakness.

The Market 31 July 2016

The Market continue to show a bullish tendency in the last five weeks of trade. You will notice that we have been in a new high ground for the last 3 weeks and the volume bars has been green for the last 5weeks. There are similarities in the performance of all the Indexes, but we await the Nasdaq to hit a new high.

Please pay a very close attention to the volume, the first bar was of the highest volume and the volume has decreased after wards. You will also notice there has not been any significant changes in the volume index. The market always take a breather after a significant movement, this might not look significant, but remember we are talking about an index and not a stock. The fact that we have not seen any Red bar in the last five weeks tell me we are in a good standing moving forward.

August is a full holiday and we are also well into the earning season. Earning season is very unpredictable, so far the process of learning how to trade earning season has not been perfected so I trade earning by a simple rule.

1. Sell 75% of my position in the stock.
2. On the day of release, Place a buy order 5% above the previous day’s closing price.
3. Set stop-loss 5% below my buy price.

The implications are as follows

1. Buy selling 75% I have protected my gains against surdden drop in price on the release.
2. Buy placing my buy at 5% above the previous day’s close. It means the earnings was good and the market was ready to move the stock forward, I will get in early and loose five percent of the initial price gain. This is not a big deal.
3. Setting stop loss at 5% means the stock will sell off if the initial gain was reversed without being seriously dragged down.

The graphs below showed my positions closed (XRS, LGIH) this week for the following reasons.

XRS

The earning for XRS was released this week and the stock missed expectation by 0.6%, there was not significant change in price on that day but the price kept dropping gradually on the following day. By Friday, the volume traded had increased and the last candle showed a selling pressure moving into next week. Due to this, the position was closed on Friday and the close of trade.

Note, the price could rise on Monday, but the decision to sell has been based on the high volume of sell and the nature of the last candle on Friday showing a negative patter.

Let’s see what happens the following week.

.

Once you are a US citizen, Permanent resident or legally sponsored employee you should be given SSN. If you fall into any of these categories you should have Social security number.

umar745:


Hi, please how did you get a social security number or ITIN required to open the account. Thats whats holding me back now

Hi Jideams, Kudos for the conversation on this thread.
Please what stocks are you looking at this week?

Jideams:
The graphs below showed my positions closed (XRS, LGIH) this week for the following reasons.

XRS

The earning for XRS was released this week and the stock missed expectation by 0.6%, there was not significant change in price on that day but the price kept dropping gradually on the following day. By Friday, the volume traded had increased and the last candle showed a selling pressure moving into next week. Due to this, the position was closed on Friday and the close of trade.

Note, the price could rise on Monday, but the decision to sell has been based on the high volume of sell and the nature of the last candle on Friday showing a negative patter.

Let’s see what happens the following week.

ifeykay:
Once you are a US citizen, Permanent resident or legally sponsored employee you should be given SSN. If you fall into any of these categories you should have Social security number.

Okay. I thought you got it while in Nigeria.

ifeykay:
Hi Jideams, Kudos for the conversation on this thread.
Please what stocks are you looking at this week?

The Market seem to be drifting sideways and there has not been a momentum so far. Still on the look out, I will identify some new positions this weekend and show my entry price. Although i bought AMBA, don't think it was a good idea as i did it in a rush. We do not have to be in the Market all the time, staying in cash is also a postion.

PAYC,

I noticed a 3500% increase in trading volume for PAYC today, not sure if this is related to earnings as I am not in the position to check it. The stock is 2.5% up now and if it holds I might enter it today. Please check earning and be sure we are not close to earning announcement.

PAYC

Just entered the trade

Paycom Software, Inc. Reports Record Second Quarter 2016 Revenue Growth
Record Second Quarter Revenue of $73.9 million, up 51% from comparable prior year period

Record Second Quarter GAAP Net Income of $10.4 million, up 75% from comparable prior year period, or $0.18 per diluted share

Record Second Quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million, up 72% from comparable prior year period

Record Second Quarter non-GAAP Net Income of $12.4 million, or $0.21 per diluted share

CDK

Another Good Buy today breaking out on 485% volume

Description
CDK Global, Inc. is a provider of integrated information technology and digital marketing/advertising solutions to the automotive retail industry. The Company's segments are Automotive Retail North America (ARNA), Automotive Retail International (ARI) and Digital Marketing (DM). The Company's solutions automate workflow processes from pre-sale targeted advertising and marketing campaigns to the sale, financing, insurance, parts supply, and repair and maintenance of vehicles. Its automotive retail solutions offer technology that helps supply side of the retail value chain. It offers digital marketing solutions to enable its clients to create demand for their products by designing and managing complete digital marketing and advertising strategies for their businesses. The Company, through its DM segment, provides a suite of digital marketing solutions for original equipment manufacturers and automotive retailers, including Websites and management of their digital advertising spend.

Thanks @jideams. I missed an opportunity on AMBA few weeks back at $42. I notice its recovery ability after any pull back. I will enter if any pull to53.

Wow,

PAYC

Delivered today remember when I spotted this stock a while ago , see the graph below. I knew it was a strong signal hence the reason I circled it. If finally delivered today at a very high volume.
I entered the trade today when it was 2.7% up and now it is at over 7%. That Is what I call a good trade.

we should be expecting aretracement on the s&p 500 index

Hi

Has anyone had any luck opening an account with thinkorswim from Nigeria? They just introduced a 20 minutes delay on their demo platform... Please if you have an idea how i can open a real account please let me know. Thanks