experts in the house please hear me...

So i entered an audjpy sell yesterday at price 85.785 with stop at 86.865... Now i fear for this trade because on the daily it seem to have formed a higher low... What do you think?

And i set a buy stop on eurcad at 1.410370...

Thanks!

sweetmaris:
Also
It beats my imagination when we use laptop/phone (40k), internent connection, generator etc to trade jus $10,

Mind you before risking your hard earn cash into this biz, u ought to hav done ur homework, can't go into all that now

Say to urself 14 times.... " I must make money in FX"


On a serious note, I can't loose in Forex, except the market goes 2500 pips against me in a single stretch

Anyways u people shouldnt mind me oo, am in a happy mood today dats why am jus typing all these jargons lol

I think someone with a $10 account shouldn't have the mindset that he wants to make money. It should still be about learning.
Why don't you just continue with demo account. Treat the demo account as if you are trading a live account while focusing on another source of income. Personally i don't see how someone with $10 will make a living trading forex and depending on it. Of course Ogboralph bought many properties, cars, even married his wife trading a $1 account. He will tell you that

guy is not about how much you have in your account but how knowledgeable or experienced you are.check this trades

silibaba:
guy is not about how much you have in your account but how knowledgeable or experienced you are.check this trades

You know how far....
Even if u trade $1000 account with o.01 and you aren't knowledgeable or skilled enuf, the account will just drain slowly...

After you've acquired sufficient skills and experience, you then come to realize you don't even need a $1000 deposit to be successful...because you know what you doing.

The question is how many failures can your equity sustain before going red.
You can determine this by yourself.. if i can sustain a 100pips loss 3 times b4 getting it right on the fourth...then precisely i know what amount to deposit.
If it doesn't work then I redeposit..
Broker doesn't have to be your second bank...

Although as different humans , we a can't reason on the same frequency...
This is my thought and how i operate..and shouldn't necessarily be a general opinion.

My view, sell au the more if diagonal support gets broken.

jorel1:
giving away free $500 to the most behaved on this thread .. stay tuned

wow...what a good offer just to be well behaved. But I'll suggest you share a system that can generate a consistance profit at the end of each month rather than giving out $500 that might not see the light of the next day in there account. Teaching one to fish and he will never forget you....just my one cent!

The difference btw meager capital (10 - 100) and gud capital like (250-500) is time in reaching breakeven & subsequently start withdrawing profits to cover up for cost of running ur trading. Why it may take 12 months to make healthy profits on risking say 5-10% with RR1:1 per trade with a solid strategy on d former, it will take d latter 3 months to reach there. It is nt d capital per say but d waiting time. If u can't wait, don't do it. Am nt talking about luckily increasing $10 to 100 in few days, weeks or months & blowing it all in a flash again. This is madness & u will equally blow away a $1000 equity luckily turned 100,000 in a flash. We have seen it happened here & else where. D reason why most traders fail in naija is poverty. No backup fund / gud job but trading with his last $100 in life with d high hope to buy a car, pay rent, buy internet subscription, pay bills/fees, build a house, fuel Gen, buy clothes, impress friends /family, and so on. Meager fund is for fun trading why u are doing ur normal primary source of income until u sack dat work dat can't even earn 10% of what FX gives u & invest in personal biz & people. Personally, 250 is what I need now & d rest becomes history - dis fund will do most stuff for me without any stress / tension. I was telling my friend recently if only i knew what i know now, may be 3 wasted years of trading fx would have turned 100 to 10,000 as bal today & capital wouldn't be issue again till death. Consistency is d deal. I've seen it all.

jorel1:
giving away free $500 to the most behaved on this thread .. stay tuned

nice one. some traders are very gud but no fund to start. someone acquired a skill on car repairing but can't set up his workshop or raise fund to start. this is d same plan I have for dis thread in d future & I've been thinking about dis since last year. you about d first person doing dis openly here

Hmmm...long read,missed this place but enjoying Owerri. When back will be right back in the house.
REGAL FX.

jorel1:

You know how far....
Even if u trade $1000 account with o.01 and you aren't knowledgeable or skilled enuf, the account will just drain slowly...

After you've acquired sufficient skills and experience, you then come to realize you don't even need a $1000 deposit to be successful...because you know what you doing.

The question is how many failures can your equity sustain before going red.
You can determine this by yourself.. if i can sustain a 100pips loss 3 times b4 getting it right on the fourth...then precisely i know what amount to deposit.
If it doesn't work then I redeposit..
I WILL EXPLAIN THIS BELOW TO THE LEVEL OF MY UNDERSTANDING

Broker doesn't have to be your second bank...

Although as different humans , we a can't reason on the same frequency...
This is my thought and how i operate..and shouldn't necessarily be a general opinion.

I am in line with you although this is arguable to some.In my own little understanding, many people dont know simple way to know if they will be a good trader and not gambler. I will summarize below.

Feshizzy:

Wise Words CP
This very true and a agree completely,
I do know some people would oppose to this fact, still it remains a fact,
small TF and small Capital are the way brokers become very rich,
They know in due time you would come back funding again in just a matter of months
Here is a simple fix:

You want to trade with 30$ its fine, just fund your account and continuing demo,
as you trade on demo, you gain more screen time and experience.
by then time has been spent, and you have some more money, add it to you account again do this till you are able to save +100$,
it beat me to know people save to get a TV set/Phone and yet want to trade forex with 20$
*laughing in spiritual power* . The market would humble you.
Don't get too carried away by the market, the market is always there and its not shutting down at all.

PS. This is for newbie,

Regards,
EF

At bolded, i stand to disagree especially small TF you said. You dont know how to trade, you dont know simple. No matter what that person deposit , you will still give it back to a broker. I have seen many traders owning account of over $200k gone within few weeks trading swing on 4hr which is not even involve spread much.
Many traders arrogance and over confidence with less willingness to expand what they have known kills account quickly than anything. So, it doesnt involve large capitals to make money in forex and i will keep saying it, BUT BEING SKILLFUL IN WHATEVER TF YOU ARE TRADING. My first deposit to live account was 1000$ when i thought i have known the market tricks. Alpari chop am well well within 3 months. But i agree on the second part of under capitalized at times, but the question is will you consistently make money if you deposit huge money?

Edd1e:

I agree with u on this...Being undercapitalized is a very bad thing in forex business, believe me, To me, it doesn't matter how potent ur strategy is, you will misbehave, there will be a time where u wouldn't get satisfied with the little amount u r making, overconfidence will set in and u will eventually increase ur lot size not putting into consideration MM again and there goes ur account with just little mistake.. boom..

Though i agree to the fact that if you are under capitilized, you may find it challenging to sustain your account? But if you are not good, you are not.

This come to how healthy are your trades? No matter how you trade, the account you operate? HOW GOOD IS YOUR DRAWDOWN OVERTIME?

To know you are a good trader or not, just do this simple test:
What is your maximum draw down over trades you have made. What is your relative drawdown? Many traders neglect this aspect. The higher your drawdown, the higher your account is in trouble no matter what account you trade. The higher the numbers of trades you make in relation to low drawdown just shows you you are a good trader, especially if your profit factor and ratio of win to loss is higher.
if your drawdown is way above 30% , i think the trader needs to re strategize and work on his system/strategies and quality of his trades. This thing is deep and anyone that yet to know that should read from this link how it works.
http://www.babypips.com/school/undergraduate/senior-year/risk-management/drawdown-and-maximum-drawdown.html

It will help alot and let you know when you are over trading, over leveraging and so on. So a trader should know how healthy your account is. and how good you are. Those numbers are not fancy, those are the things brokers use to put you in B book or A book.

The most important thing to ever do in fx trading is protect your capitals all ways you can.No matter what you trade, your first few trades must be never be drawdown, i have said it most of the time. The second is protect your profits in all ways.
The third is repeat the 2 steps above.Cheers.

Nice discussion on risk management

Edd1e:

I agree with u on this...

Being undercapitalized is a very bad thing in forex business, believe me, To me, it doesn't matter how potent ur strategy is, you will misbehave, there will be a time where u wouldn't get satisfied with the little amount u r making, overconfidence will set in and u will eventually increase ur lot size not putting into consideration MM again and there goes ur account with just little mistake.. boom..

+1
You sabi well well,
The overconfidence is what kills small account on a relative term "greed or Ogbo+raph"

Manutd19:



I think someone with a $10 account shouldn't have the mindset that he wants to make money. It should still be about learning.
Why don't you just continue with demo account. Treat the demo account as if you are trading a live account while focusing on another source of income. Personally i don't see how someone with $10 will make a living trading forex and depending on it. Of course Ogboralph bought many properties, cars, even married his wife trading a $1 account. He will tell you that

I agree with you completely.

Regards,
EF

Feshizzy:

+1
You sabi well well,
The overconfidence is what kills small account on a relative term "greed or Ogbo+raph"

Hahaha , so "greed is synonymous with Ogbo", na u talk am o, . Wish he could learn from all this Money Management tips, we've all had our fair share of mistakes and greediness too but we didn't refuse to learn and that bro is what makes the diff....

Edd1e:

Hahaha , so "greed is synonymous with Ogbo", na u talk am o, . Wish he could learn from all this Money Management tips, we've all had our fair share of mistakes and greediness too but we didn't refuse to learn and that bro is what makes the diff....

Very true,
We all have had our fair share of the struggle.
I don blow account taya, to the extent my broker was calling me on on regular to check how I'm doing "I feel they thought I might be planning suicide or going to burn down their office " they just wanted to be sure we are even.
The good news is that I learnt the lesson square.
First lesson, was don't trade Lower TF and if you must, be in agreement with the higher TF and avoid high impact news.
I learnt the latter part the hard way and turning $20 to $132 for a week, then blew it up.

anyway that's just me voicing my humble opinion.

today's photo tips.

silibaba:
guy is not about how much you have in your account but how knowledgeable or experienced you are.check this trades

This was the guy that mentored me. Motuir Rahman. Bad ass indian trader.

Tom29i; I see u. Nicely put. Lets continue this encouragement and also analyse signals that are supplied herein. God speed.

Tom29i:
The difference btw meager capital (10 - 100) and gud capital like (250-500) is time in reaching breakeven & subsequently start withdrawing profits to cover up for cost of running ur trading. Why it may take 12 months to make healthy profits on risking say 5-10% with RR1:1 per trade with a solid strategy on d former, it will take d latter 3 months to reach there. It is nt d capital per say but d waiting time. If u can't wait, don't do it. Am nt talking about luckily increasing $10 to 100 in few days, weeks or months & blowing it all in a flash again. This is madness & u will equally blow away a $1000 equity luckily turned 100,000 in a flash. We have seen it happened here & else where. D reason why most traders fail in naija is poverty. No backup fund / gud job but trading with his last $100 in life with d high hope to buy a car, pay rent, buy internet subscription, pay bills/fees, build a house, fuel Gen, buy clothes, impress friends /family, and so on. Meager fund is for fun trading why u are doing ur normal primary source of income until u sack dat work dat can't even earn 10% of what FX gives u & invest in personal biz & people. Personally, 250 is what I need now & d rest becomes history - dis fund will do most stuff for me without any stress / tension. I was telling my friend recently if only i knew what i know now, may be 3 wasted years of trading fx would have turned 100 to 10,000 as bal today & capital wouldn't be issue again till death. Consistency is d deal. I've seen it all.

Good day Mrikay, I remain humbled, maybe not an expert, but a seasoned trader. i have had my share of experience, taken some good losses time and again and learned even more. now i can dare say that i am a Good trader. I trade 10k lotsize on a standard account, that is 1USD for every PIP depending on the pair. At this point i am looking at your entry and i am thinking....

1. Kindly look at the 3 charts below.
2. Note: price should go all the way to 89.20, that is where price should find a strong resistance. This might take some days though.

Again, this is my thot on this pair

mrikay:
experts in the house please hear me...

So i entered an audjpy sell yesterday at price 85.785 with stop at 86.865... Now i fear for this trade because on the daily it seem to have formed a higher low... What do you think?

And i set a buy stop on eurcad at 1.410370...

Thanks!

Good day Mrikay,

Am sure your AUDJPY (Buy) is doing fine, Price has tested the yellow line as expected hence a buy entry. Kindly update me on ur trade.
Note however, this is not the best pair to be looking at right now....cheers

Feshizzy:

Very true,
We all have had our fair share of the struggle.
I don blow account taya, to the extent my broker was calling me on on regular to check how I'm doing "I feel they thought I might be planning suicide or going to burn down their office " they just wanted to be sure we are even.
The good news is that I learnt the lesson square.
First lesson, was don't trade Lower TF and if you must, be in agreement with the higher TF and avoid high impact news.
I learnt the latter part the hard way and turning $20 to $132 for a week, then blew it up.

anyway that's just me voicing my humble opinion.

today's photo tips.

i agree with you this i once turned 15$ to 232$ i one week only to blew the acct the following week, trading is quite complex despite the fact that it looks very simple, for example victor niederhoffer was once one respected trade,he blew all his acct in thailand, but i think the way forward can be seen from the words on one trader i hold in high esteem Ed sekyota and he only have one skills : RISK MANAGEMENT.
Newbies can learn alot from that.

Risk Management

(c) Ed Seykota, 2003


Risk

RISK is the possibility of loss. That is, if we own some stock, and there is a possibility of a price decline, we are at risk. The stock is not the risk, nor is the loss the risk. The possibility of loss is the risk. As long as we own the stock, we are at risk. The only way to control the risk is to buy or sell stock. In the matter of owning stocks, and aiming for profit, risk is fundamentally unavoidable and the best we can do is to manage the risk.

Risk Management

To manage is to direct and control. Risk management is to direct and control the possibility of loss. The activities of a risk manager are to measure risk and to increase and decrease risk by buying and selling stock.

The Coin Toss Example

Let's say we have a coin that we can toss and that it comes up heads or tails with equal probability. The Coin Toss Example helps to present the concepts of risk management .

The PROBABILITY of an event is the likelihood of that event, expressing as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences. So if the coin comes up heads, 50 times out of 100, then the probability of heads is 50%. Notice that a probability has to be between zero (0.0 = 0% = impossible) and one (1.0 = 100% = certain).

Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000, (2) we always bet that heads come up, (3) we can bet any amount that we have left, (4) if tails comes up, we lose our bet, (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet, and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50%. This game is similar to some trading methods.

In this case, our LUCK equals the probability of winning, or 50%; we will be lucky 50% of the time. Our PAYOFF equals 2:1 since we win 2 for every 1 we bet. Our RISK is the amount of money we wager, and therefore place at risk, on the next toss. In this example, our luck and our payoff stay constant, and only our bet may change.

In more complicated games, such as actual stock trading, luck and payoff may change with changing market conditions. Traders seem to spend considerable time and effort trying to change their luck and their payoff, generally to no avail, since it is not theirs to change. The risk is the only parameter the risk manager may effectively change to control risk.
We might also model more complicated games with a matrix of lucks and payoffs, to see a range of possible outcomes. See figure 1.

Luck
Payoff
10%
lose 2
20%
lose 1
30%
break even
20%
win 1
10%
win 2
10%
win 3

Figure 1: A Luck-Payoff matrix, showing six outcomes.

This matrix might model a put-and-take game
with a six-sided spinning top, or even trading.

For now, however, we return to our basic coin example, since it has enough dimensions to illustrate many concepts of risk management. We consider more complicated examples later.

Optimal Betting

In our coin toss example, we have constant luck at 50%, constant payoff at 2:1 and we always bet on heads. To find a risk management strategy, we have to find a way to manage the bet. This is similar to the problem confronting a risk manager in the business of trading stocks. Good managers realize that there is not much they can do about luck and payoff and that the essential problem is to determine how much to wager on the stock. We begin our game with $1,000.

Hunches and Systems

One way to determine a bet size is by HUNCH. We might have a hunch and and bet $100.

Although hunch-centric betting is certainly popular and likely accounts for an enormous proportion of actual real world betting, it has several problems: the bets require the constant attention of an operator to generate hunches, and interpret them into bets, and the bets are likely to rely as much on moods and feelings as on science.

To improve on hunch-centric betting, we might come up with a betting SYSTEM. A system is a logical method that defines a series of bets. The advantages of a betting system, over a hunch method are (1) we don't need an operator, (2) the betting becomes regular, predictable and consistent and, very importantly, (3) we can perform a historical simulation, on a computer, to OPTIMIZE the betting system.

Despite almost universal agreement that a system offers clear advantages over hunches, very few risk managers actually have a definition of their own risk management systems that is clear enough to allow a computer to back-test it.
Our coin-flip game, however is fairly simple and we can come up with some betting systems for it. Furthermore, we can test these systems and optimize the system parameters to find good risk management.

Fixed Bet and Fixed-Fraction Bet

Our betting system must define the bet. One way to define the bet is to make it a constant fixed amount, say $10 each time, no matter how much we win or lose. This is a FIXED BET system. In this case, as in fixed-betting systems in general, our $1,000 EQUITY might increase or decrease to the point where the $10 fixed bet becomes proportionately too large or small to be a good bet.

To remedy this problem of the equity drifting out of proportion to the fixed bet, we might define the bet as as FIXED-FRACTION of our equity. A 1% fixed-fraction bet would, on our original $1,000, also lead to a $10 bet. This time, however, as our equity rises and falls, our fixed-fraction bet stays in proportion to our equity.

One interesting artifact of fixed-fraction betting, is that, since the bet stays proportional to the equity, it is theoretically impossible to go entirely broke so the official risk of total ruin is zero. In actual practice, however the disintegration of an enterprise has more to do with the psychological UNCLE POINT; see below.

Simulations

In order to test our betting system, we can SIMULATE over a historical record of outcomes. Let's say we toss the coin ten times and we come up with five heads and five tails. We can arrange the simulation in a table such as figure 2.

Fixed Bet
$10
Fixed-Fraction Bet
1%
Start
1000
1000
Heads
1020
1020
Tails
1010
1009.80
Heads
1030
1030
Tails
1020
1019.70
Heads
1040
1040.09
Tails
1030
1029.69
Heads
1050
1050.28
Tails
1040
1039.78
Heads
1060
1060.58
Tails
1050
1049.97

Figure 2: Simulation of Fixed-Bet and Fixed-Fraction Betting Systems.

Notice that both systems make $20.00 (twice the bet) on the first toss, that comes up heads. On the second toss, the fixed bet system loses $10.00 while the fixed-fraction system loses 1% of $1,020.00 or $10.20, leaving $1,009.80.
Note that the results from both these systems are approximately identical. Over time, however, the fixed-fraction system grows exponentially and surpasses the fixed-bet system that grows linearly. Also note that the results depend on the numbers of heads and tails and do not at all depend on the order of heads and tails. The reader may prove this result by spreadsheet simulation.



Pyramiding and Martingale

In the case of a random process, such as coin tosses, streaks of heads or tails do occur, since it would be quite improbable to have a regular alternation of heads and tails. There is, however, no way to exploit this phenomenon, which is, itself random. In non-random processes, such as secular trends in stock prices, pyramiding and other trend-trading techniques may be effective.

Pyramiding is a method for increasing a position, as it becomes profitable. While this technique might be useful as a way for a trader to pyramid up to his optimal position, pyramiding on top of an already-optimal position is to invite the disasters of over-trading. In general, such micro-tinkering with executions is far less important than sticking to the system. To the extent that tinkering allows a window for further interpreting trading signals, it can invite hunch trading and weaken the fabric that supports sticking to the system.

The Martingale system is a method for doubling-up on losing bets. In case the doubled bet loses, the method re-doubles and so on. This method is like trying to take nickels from in front of a steam roller. Eventually, one losing streak flattens the account.

odeyez:
Good day Mrikay, I remain humbled, maybe not an expert, but a seasoned trader. i have had my share of experience, taken some good losses time and again and learned even more. now i can dare say that i am a Good trader. I trade 10k lotsize on a standard account, that is 1USD for every PIP depending on the pair. At this point i am looking at your entry and i am thinking....

1. Kindly look at the 3 charts below.
2. Note: price should go all the way to 89.20, that is where price should find a strong resistance. This might take some days though.

Again, this is my thot on this pair

Thank you for your input... I am most grateful... Infact I am starting to think that this resistance could be broken.

mrikay:


Thank you for your input... I am most grateful... Infact I am starting to think that this resistance could be broken.

This is your bias, not what the market is displaying, try and understand the currentprice and read what priceaction is telling you.
Don't be clouded with you own.
The poster above you took his time to explain to you that you are currently on a resistance.
If you knew price would break up, why not place a pending order instead?
Why Open a position in hope and belief?
The trend is your friend.

Regards,
EF

Hi everyone,

its quite interesting to hear people say that traders should disregard smaller time frames.

60 seconds make 1 minute
60 minutes make 1 hour
24 hours make 1 day
5 days make 1 week (for traders)

Though the greater encompasses the lesser, in no way should the lesser be disregarded.
Within the micro-structure of one weekly candle, you will find quite alot of information detailing what and what transpired.

silibaba:
guy is not about how much you have in your account but how knowledgeable or experienced you are.check this trades

Ur account history is dated 2015

Happy Sunday fellas... Just received this and I thought I should shear it with u guys here

Free Columbus Egg Project
• There will no Fund Pooling
• Every body shall have his own account
• No one will have a single penny from any body
• Purpose will to replicate Woodies CCI Project style work
• In plateform will be gurus and leaders
• Quality filter trades will be finalize
• Every opportunity will also discuss so people get a chance to learn
• Daily target will be 5% leading 100 USD to 1000000 USD in a year time and second year even higher targets
• It will be collective trading
• Also Collective Learning our time
• Learning while earning by doing
• Very disciplined trading plan will be followed
• Very well calculated money management will be implemented
• Entry rule will be good behavior, dedication, devotion, hard work, active participation. Well mannered. Only entry rule. Any body who can do that can be part of this project
• Its free. Every body will be equal in group no junior no senior
• Time to time different reading stuff also be shared every member have to read , learn and participate over time
• Anybody not following a single rule will be out of group
Any body Intrested can email at tfxsuccess@gmail.com with Free Project in subject line mentioning name email and phone number with country code,
Please spread this message as much as u can so maximum people can get benefit of if

Supermajor:
Happy Sunday fellas... Just received this and I thought I should shear it with u guys here

Free Columbus Egg Project
• There will no Fund Pooling
• Every body shall have his own account
• No one will have a single penny from any body
• Purpose will to replicate Woodies CCI Project style work
• In plateform will be gurus and leaders
• Quality filter trades will be finalize
• Every opportunity will also discuss so people get a chance to learn
• Daily target will be 5% leading 100 USD to 1000000 USD in a year time and second year even higher targets
• It will be collective trading
• Also Collective Learning our time
• Learning while earning by doing
• Very disciplined trading plan will be followed
• Very well calculated money management will be implemented
• Entry rule will be good behavior, dedication, devotion, hard work, active participation. Well mannered. Only entry rule. Any body who can do that can be part of this project
• Its free. Every body will be equal in group no junior no senior
• Time to time different reading stuff also be shared every member have to read , learn and participate over time
• Anybody not following a single rule will be out of group
Any body Intrested can email at tfxsuccess@gmail.com with Free Project in subject line mentioning name email and phone number with country code,
Please spread this message as much as u can so maximum people can get benefit of if

I was about giving a thumbs up till i saw an email address
Anyway join the group and share your spoils here,
It's free now, when you join na something else you go see, after them don ginger you taya.
Well Sorry to burst your bubbles but I'm not spreading sh*t.

Regards,
EF

My view on EU.