wanaj0:

Well NEM is on a free fall. Not sure the prices will fall that low. Question should be how high can some of the prices go from where they are now.

For me, Crusader is the jewel in the crown. That's one to go for.

To think NEM actually reached 6 bucks! I wouldn't rate it a buy unless it drops below N1.50.

Regarding how they go from here, I'd bet Crusader, Law Union & Rock (maybe M Benefits) will do 80-100% in the next 12 months. But it seems Ins companies are also gearing up for another round of POs/rights in 2008.

shigidi:

@ wanajo, FCMB looks like been the most solid banking offer out of the latest ones. and its projections make sense because they have already acheived 130% growth fromQ1 result. better than fidelity by miles and miles.
been offerd at a pe of 23, which aint too bad for banks and a forward pe of 14, the lowest of all banks, (outstanding shares inclusive)

Fidelity is being offered at a forward PE of 16 so the difference is small but at least we have FCMB's impressive 1Q results to give us more confidence in the forecast. Still these mid-tier banks have some ambitious forecasts.

@wanaj0

thank you very much sir.

One more question pls help out.

I have this free N500,000.00 to invest on stocks do you advise that i buy Cursader with it.

I can afford to wait for the next One year (still September 2008) before get my money back, what is your personal opinion about it. and like what will i be expecting to get as returns.

I can not pay for this consultancy only God will pay you back.

FCMB's offer is good but its not all that.
Still trading at a trailing pe close to 30.
And if you look at forecast eps for 2008 and prices that stocks shld trade on rationally, then there is not too much between fcmb and fidelity.
Its obvious all the firms are going for forecasts that will double the share price in 1 yr since that is what appeals to the Nigerian investor.
So all their foreward PEs are very similar, all within the same range, all of them.
BUt having said that, the banks have a way of meeting their forecasts more often than not.

If what we considered the forecasts alone, Access would stand miles ahead of all these other offers but we know better .

@ easimoni, whats your take on flour mills it has good fundamentals but its Q1`result only showed 27% growth. that should take it to 90 naira at best. yet every reputed brokerage firm recommends flour mills like you could double your money or something. do u think it can perform better than this in a sector where the margins are pretty thin in comparision with the banks

plz, where is the easiest place to get coy's PAT and other results?

wanaj0:


Anyone watching Capital Oil??

Wanaj0, I really don't know what is pushing Capital Oil lately, it has started gaining for the past one week non stop.
Do you have any tangible reason for this?

Whats responsible for AP's huge rise?

crazyT:

Wanaj0, I really don't know what is pushing Capital Oil lately, it has started gaining for the past one week non stop.
Do you have any tangible reason for this?

I think they are planning an offer. Capital Oil control the distribution of petroleum products in the South East

shigidi:

@ easimoni, whats your take on flour mills it has good fundamentals but its Q1`result only showed 27% growth. that should take it to 90 naira at best. yet every reputed brokerage firm recommends flour mills like you could double your money or something. do u think it can perform better than this in a sector where the margins are pretty thin in comparision with the banks

Flour Mills did not grow profit for Q1 due to the gas supply distruption around April/May that affected the operating cost. That said, Flour Mills is as solid as you can imagine. Margin in Flour is thin but the margin in Fertiliser and BAGCO is huge. Don't forget they also have a terminal at the port now. Add that to the cement importation and the new cement plant and you will see a well diversified company. They've increased their holdings in some of their associates/subsidiaries. Flour Mills should actually be a conglomerate.

harrisoft:

@wanaj0

thank you very much sir.

One more question please help out.

I have this free N500,000.00 to invest on stocks do you advise that i buy Cursader with it.

I can afford to wait for the next One year (still September 2008) before get my money back, what is your personal opinion about it. and like what will i be expecting to get as returns.

I can not pay for this consultancy only God will pay you back.

well, I tend to buy stocks that I am willing to hold for LIFE.

If I know the expected gains for ALL stocks then I must be GOD!!!! My brother we can all only speculate and pontificate but there are so many things outside our control. Many things can turn ALL the analysis into trash. Imagine a coup in Nigeria for example? What of escalation of the Niger Delta crisis?

That said, I see Crusader as a GOOD stock to have in the insurance sector. Same thing with UNIC.

Diamond is also a stock that you can look at. FCMB offer also is not bad.

Temmie10:

FCMB's offer is good but its not all that.
Still trading at a trailing pe close to 30.
And if you look at forecast eps for 2008 and prices that stocks shld trade on rationally, then there is not too much between fcmb and fidelity.
Its obvious all the firms are going for forecasts that will double the share price in 1 yr since that is what appeals to the Nigerian investor.
So all their foreward PEs are very similar, all within the same range, all of them.
BUt having said that, the banks have a way of meeting their forecasts more often than not.

If what we considered the forecasts alone, Access would stand miles ahead of all these other offers but we know better .

One good thing about the FCMB offer is the strategy. For once, a bank is not spending money opening unprofitable branches! That's my problem with Zenith especially!!!!! Why open loss making branches? Why not leverage on e-banking? Why not role out ATMS all over? Of what advantage is having branches located less than five minutes walking distance to each other.

I am just fascinated with FCMB. With all the mergers and acquisitions that are to come, expect them to be a major player there. If they can get their mortgage financing plans on track, that will also be a good revenue stream for them. The board also looked experienced (apart from the MD). All in all, it is looking attractive.

wanaj0:

I think they are planning an offer. Capital Oil control the distribution of petroleum products in the South East

Flour Mills did not grow profit for Q1 due to the gas supply distruption around April/May that affected the operating cost. That said, Flour Mills is as solid as you can imagine. Margin in Flour is thin but the margin in Fertiliser and BAGCO is huge. Don't forget they also have a terminal at the port now. Add that to the cement importation and the new cement plant and you will see a well diversified company. They've increased their holdings in some of their associates/subsidiaries. Flour Mills should actually be a conglomerate.

well, I tend to buy stocks that I am willing to hold for LIFE.

If I know the expected gains for ALL stocks then I must be GOD!!!! My brother we can all only speculate and pontificate but there are so many things outside our control. Many things can turn ALL the analysis into trash. Imagine a coup in Nigeria for example? What of escalation of the Niger Delta crisis?

That said, I see Crusader as a GOOD stock to have in the insurance sector. Same thing with UNIC.

Diamond is also a stock that you can look at. FCMB offer also is not bad.
One good thing about the FCMB offer is the strategy. For once, a bank is not spending money opening unprofitable branches! That's my problem with Zenith especially!!!!! Why open loss making branches? Why not leverage on e-banking? Why not role out ATMS all over? Of what advantage is having branches located less than five minutes walking distance to each other.

I am just fascinated with FCMB. With all the mergers and acquisitions that are to come, expect them to be a major player there. If they can get their mortgage financing plans on track, that will also be a good revenue stream for them. The board also looked experienced (apart from the MD). All in all, it is looking attractive.

I'm with you  bro on Flour Mills. They are also into shipping they own Star shipping company and Northern Nigeria Flour Mills is also a subsidiary. I think their strategy is to achieve market dominance in the industries in which they are involved. If you look closely at their competitor Dangote Flour Mills they are also in to Pasta, Sacks,Bagging and Cement production. So the players in this sector basically operate in the same market space but their is a crucial difference between the business models of these two giants of the industry. There is a lot of  intra business transactions between the companies in Dangote group and they have tended to enjoy government patronage in the past so there is a very high degree of coupling in the Dangote group which means they probably can't grow the businesses significantly outside of the group and if something adverse should happen to one of  the Dangote companies for instance it will have a domino effect on other companies in the group that tend to rely on one another so not a good business strategy for me.

Dont forget Dangote has deep pockets so his group might actually be a major threat to Flour Mills in terms of grabbing market share and margins will even be squeezed further.
Watch the space!

@ WANAJO,
PLS WHAT'S THE PROBLEM THAT GLOBE RE IS EXPERIENCING. I BOUGHT LOADS OF IT DURING THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT AND I'M BEGINNING TO GET WORRIED. I HOPE I HVNT BURNT MY FINGERS AND TOES. please i need this info badly. pls reply

wanaj0:

I think they are planning an offer. Capital Oil control the distribution of petroleum products in the South East

@ Wanajo - I think I would have to agree. I'm speculating the same thing also (haven't come across any news of it yet, maybe someone has). I was studying it as well, but couldn't put a finger on it. There is still something very odd about it all though. It's been gaining about 5% daily for the past week, but notice the # of deals, the volume & the value, It's been averaging about only 2 deals per day, and about 15,000 shares valued at about N15,000 daily, This is way too small, It could very well be insider trading, trying to prop up the price prior to coming out for an offer, by then the books could be very well cooked to justify the possibly overvalued stock. All is speculation though , someone may very well know something I don't

Temmie10:

FCMB's offer is good but its not all that.
Still trading at a trailing pe close to 30.
And if you look at forecast eps for 2008 and prices that stocks shld trade on rationally, then there is not too much between fcmb and fidelity.
Its obvious all the firms are going for forecasts that will double the share price in 1 yr since that is what appeals to the Nigerian investor.
So all their foreward PEs are very similar, all within the same range, all of them.
BUt having said that, the banks have a way of meeting their forecasts more often than not.

If what we considered the forecasts alone, Access would stand miles ahead of all these other offers but we know better .

temmie10, i dont completely agree with you. fidelity has a forecast eps of 0.8, for a company that will have 22bn shares, that means they will have to get over 200% growth just to acheive that target. fcmb, on the other hand have released Q1 result and it already shows 133% growth and its forecast PAT was already 15bn based on that result, FCMB looks far more promising , i would compare this to the zenith 16.50k offer two years ago, maybe you wont get the same apprecition but its a good offer, thats for sizzle

RoughCut:

I'm with you  bro on Flour Mills. They are also into shipping they own Star shipping company and Northern Nigeria Flour Mills is also a subsidiary. I think their strategy is to achieve market dominance in the industries in which they are involved. If you look closely at their competitor Dangote Flour Mills they are also in to Pasta, Sacks,Bagging and Cement production. So the players in this sector basically operate in the same market space but their is a crucial difference between the business models of these two giants of the industry. There is a lot of  intra business transactions between the companies in Dangote group and they have tended to enjoy government patronage in the past so there is a very high degree of coupling in the Dangote group which means they probably can't grow the businesses significantly outside of the group and if something adverse should happen to one of  the Dangote companies for instance it will have a domino effect on other companies in the group that tend to rely on one another so not a good business strategy for me.

Dont forget Dangote has deep pockets so his group might actually be a major threat to Flour Mills in terms of grabbing market share and margins will even be squeezed further.
Watch the space!

I attended Flour Mills AGM a couple of years ago. Then I saw Dangote a a threat. Was so angry that they did not see it like that. The chairman of the board was pathetic. So arrogant (Greek American). I was ready to cashout right then. Then they have a huge financing cost. So they were prodded to go for a rights issue. Out of anger, I only took my righst instead of buying more. The rights was at 12.00 or thereabout. See the same flour mills now. Those guys know what they are doing. Yes Dangote is a competitor but Flour Mills is the market leader. Flour Mills has mills all over the federation. Yes they are not as big as Dangote in cement but that is all. In all the other areas, they are the market leader. In terms of fundamentals, that is the BEST stock out there. Well positioned for growth. Well diversified. The change over to gas is a good advantage for them. More comfortable with them than Dangote Flour. It will be interesting how they both battle it out. Flour Mills is tried and tested!!!!

diva4eva:

@ WANAJO,
PLS WHAT'S THE PROBLEM THAT GLOBE RE IS EXPERIENCING. I BOUGHT LOADS OF IT DURING THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT AND I'M BEGINNING TO GET WORRIED. I HOPE I HVNT BURNT MY FINGERS AND TOES. please i need this info badly. please reply

Globe Re did not meet the initial consolidation deadline. Hence they entered into a merger agreement with Nigerian Re that was bought by Jimoh Ibrahim. However, with the review of the merger agreement, Globe Re opened again their private placement. Having raised money now (after the initial deadline) Globe Re wants to pull out of the unfavourable merger arrangement. Unfortunately for them, according to Jimoh Ibrahim, Globe RE died Feb 28, 2007 when they 'merged' with Nigerian Re. so it is possible that we have another All States situation here where people bought shares of a dead company! In teh acse of All States, people can run to SEC. For Globe Re, the placement is not regulated by SEC.

esco399:

@ Wanajo - I think I would have to agree. I'm speculating the same thing also (haven't come across any news of it yet, maybe someone has). I was studying it as well, but couldn't put a finger on it. There is still something very odd about it all though. It's been gaining about 5% daily for the past week, but notice the # of deals, the volume & the value, It's been averaging about only 2 deals per day, and about 15,000 shares valued at about N15,000 daily, This is way too small, It could very well be insider trading, trying to prop up the price prior to coming out for an offer, by then the books could be very well cooked to justify the possibly overvalued stock. All is speculation though , someone may very well know something I don't

It is not a liquid stock. How many shareholders do they have? That's why you have limited deals and few units being traded. Placed an order over 5 months ago but yet to get a single unit to BUY.

@wanajo
Couldn't agree more but i'm still of the opinion that Alhaji Dangote is a formidable  competitor and he has the means and resources to rustle a few feathers  but going forward short-term Flour Mills is the real McCoy long-term dont count Dangote out. Flour Mills is solid anyday but Alhaji Dangote may gatecrash the party!

Talking about Zenith noticed they did 74M shares yesterday and i'm talking net bid here. Looks like it might push the 50-mark very soon. I got the stock for N16 and for some strange reasons i still cant explain i didnt sell when it went to N68. So hopefully it should crack 50 very soon then i can cash in and re-enter again when it dips. Long-term stock to HOLD by the way even if you take profit go back in again when things have subsided a bit

RoughCut:

@wanajo
Couldn't agree more but i'm still of the opinion that Alhaji Dangote is a formidable competitor and he has the means and resources to rustle a few feathers but going forward short-term Flour Mills is the real McCoy long-term don't count Dangote out. Flour Mills is solid anyday but Alhaji Dangote may gatecrash the party!

Not counting Dangote out. My post was just to show how much I underrated the Flour Mills guys. They looked so clueless at the AGM. After that I swore NEVER to attend any AGM again. I looked at their rights issue with disdain. Have a friend who took his rights and even bought much more. Now the guy is smilling. No doubt about it, they have their business model right. Imagine a 70k share giving 90k dividend and the stock price still held steady!!!!! That to me shows resilience and strong fundamentals.

wanaj0:

It is not a liquid stock. How many shareholders do they have? That's why you have limited deals and few units being traded. Placed an order over 5 months ago but yet to get a single unit to BUY.

Trust that I've always known it is not a liquid stock, and I also tried buying way back when with no luck. Your guess is as good as mine as to the number of shareholders they have which further enforces why one should tread with caution. There are many other "not liquid" stocks that do better than this, plus I doubt if any of them will be going northwards such as this, and we wouldn't see their activities increase,  It has done over 25% in a week, and all you get is 2 deals being made at at an avg of N7500 per deal  ,  resembles handshakes being made between people dumping off insignificant portions off their shares (and using those to push up the price) to potentially double, tripple/ quadruple the significant portion. Is there any news to justify the rally? Anyways, still just speculating.

Oh by the way, before I forget to say it, Great work!!! especially by the Gurus, but also all the contributors , this is an excellent information venue, Thanks again,

whitelexi:

_{Seriously concentrating on the insurance sector. . .}

LOL! V funny. :DMy head was spinning reading all the stuff posted above.

wanaj0:

It is not a liquid stock. How many shareholders do they have? That's why you have limited deals and few units being traded. Placed an order over 5 months ago but yet to get a single unit to BUY.

Same with me I place and order about 6months ago for 500k units was able to get only 140k @0.33, guess it's time to bail out or NOT?

If you haven't bought MBenefit by now, you might be regretting soon.
Don't say I did not warn you!

@VIPICO

na wa o , u be insider or you be soothsayer !

crazyT:




Same with me I place and order about 6months ago for 500k units was able to get only 140k @0.33, guess it's time to bail out or N :POT?

Why the hurry Stay put and enjoy the LOOT

RoughCut:

Talking about Zenith noticed they did 74M shares yesterday and i'm talking net bid here. Looks like it might push the 50-mark very soon. I got the stock for N16 and for some strange reasons i still can't explain i didnt sell when it went to N68. So hopefully it should crack 50 very soon then i can cash in and re-enter again when it dips. Long-term stock to HOLD by the way even if you take profit go back in again when things have subsided a bit

WanajO,

I always like that your style. When you are convinced you do not hide your feelings. You speak very passionately about Flour Mills and you are right. Now how far in the next 6months to 1year do you think Flour Mills can go. Remember AP, a few analysts told me some months ago that AP is a N90 - N100 stock, they have been vindicated now, you can see it is N106.90 from N60+ just a few weeks ago. Do you see Flour Mills following this same trend? Their business diversification tells me much of how they do not want to take a NO for an answer in their aggressiveness and resilience!

Guys,
Does anyone know anything about the Nigerian Energy Sector Fund? I saw that it is being traded on the NSE but no prior discussions about it. Is it worth looking into? What is the outlook for that?
Thanks!

@shigidi
you definitely have a point there.
Looking back, fcmb is obviously ahead.

right now one of the best shares to buy now is japaul oil it's under maritime.their shares has been discounted from#6 to #4,which means as soon as their public offer closes it automatically jumps back to #6(meaning on a unit u av gained #2).
and as for u people that needs broker i suggest cashcraft.

wanaj0:

Why the hurry Stay put and enjoy the LOOT

I second that! Ride the wave for as long as it lets you,  Know when to exit though (remember you haven't made any money till you've sold),  maybe if it starts going south (if still no news/fundamentals to support the figures by then) ,  can always try and re-enter, but remember its not that liquid (you are already fortunate to have), but then, there'll probably be a plethora of other nice stocks to chose from. Totally dependent on your investment objectives.  Luckily the NSE would only let you loose 5% in a day. Win-Win for you 

capital oil, rising from the dead!