mee25:

Dont you think a FY PAT 0f over N30Bn is possile, having in mind the strong fundamentals of FBN; wishful thinking though

In fact it is possible but this will be an increase of 8% over the projection. It's why I say it is not a big deal. Zeniths projected PAT was around 26.5 Billion and they are poised to exceed this by over 20% even without funding from it's PO.

People,
Where is UBA? Any news? What do they mean by this raie money thro debt i read in the papers?
Thanks in advance

Hi Pumping 777,

Please what do you have to say as regards these companies:

1.C & I LEASING 2.STACO INS. 3.AIR SERVICES AND LOGISTICS 4.CHELLARAMS 5.AFRICAN PAINTS 6.IKEJA HOTEL

Peace.

tonyjon:

Hi Pumping 777,

Please what do you have to say as regards these companies:

1.C & I LEASING 2.STACO INS. 3.AIR SERVICES AND LOGISTICS 4.CHELLARAMS 5.AFRICAN PAINTS 6.IKEJA HOTEL

Peace.

I can only comment on 2 I believe I analyzed recently.

1. C & I LEASING - I think this is good Buy based on fundamentals and the potential growth. I'm looking for the stock at N4.90

2. CHELLARAMS - Hot. The fundamentals are good and the company has been consistent. I will buy at market price tomorrow if I will find but the stock is just too illiquid.

Can anyone confirm the outstanding shares for Ikeja Hotel? I have 1.7 Billion.

To All GURU's

Nobody seems to be talking about UNITY BANK, cos i bought it at #8.41 some months ago and now it has fall drastically to #5.35 and i heard that they are planning to raise money from the market very soon, Pls i need an UPDATE on this BANK.

INSURANCE Sub-Sector: I read that NAICOM is planning another Consolidation and some Firm are going to merge again, How true is this?

Who has got info on N.E.M Insurance, Unity Bank, Transcorp and Japaul oil?

PLS: I NEED AN ANSWER URGENTLY


To ALL GURUS IN THE HOUSE,

pumping777:

I can only comment on 2 I believe I analyzed recently.

1. C & I LEASING - I think this is good Buy based on fundamentals and the potential growth. I'm looking for the stock at N4.90

2. CHELLARAMS - Hot. The fundamentals are good and the company has been consistent. I will buy at market price tomorrow if I will find but the stock is just too illiquid.

Can anyone confirm the outstanding shares for Ikeja Hotel? I have 1.7 Billion.

I have 2.08 billion for Ikeja Hotel from their prospectus.

hispy99:

I have 2.08 billion for Ikeja Hotel from their prospectus.

@hispy99 Thanks. Please what is the projected PAT for 2007 from the prospectus? I can see that the results for the last 2 years are consistent. Is this the same for years before 2005?

I don't feel the stock is such great value right now. The PE is around 14 and the growth rate is modest Year On Year 2005/2006 at 18% for PAT. The price is dipping consistently though so it may come into the radar soon.

pumping777:

@hispy99 Thanks. Please what is the projected PAT for 2007 from the prospectus? I can see that the results for the last 2 years are consistent. Is this the same for years before 2005?

I don't feel the stock is such great value right now. The PE is around 14 and the growth rate is modest Year On Year 2005/2006 at 18% for PAT. The price is dipping consistently though so it may come into the radar soon.

Projected PAT for 2007 and 2008 is N649.46MM and N806.78MM respectively (their half year PAT for 2007 was N398MM), so they will most likely exceed their estimate for this year. I chased the stock everyday from the day it was listed @N3 till it crossed N4.00 (which was my threshold), but my broker did not get any units for me. I was surprised it hit N8.20 before the free fall.

@Pumping

Tranex result is for 9-month ending Sept 2007 and not Q1. PAT will be around N54million for FYE 2007 if you annualize and if you use your 132 million shares outstanding and N0.81 price, then you are looking @ a PE less than 2 . Is this possible? . Not quite as juicy using your PAT N180 million, but still looks too good to be true. Is this 132 million shares outstanding correct? Guys please help

@ Pumping 777
Sir,
I have a question for you, From the perspective of a chap with very limited funds, would you please help me narrow my prospective purchases to 2,
My favorites are :
1. upcoming Bagco PO
2. Costain
3. bank Phb
4. Zenith PO
5.MAYBE Obajana, I heard someone mention it, dunno if it is still coming out,

As you can see I am looking for IPO's and cheaper stocks that I could get more units of versus quality ( no Nestle for me yet!)
I already have 2 choices but I need corroboration from a guru before I take the plunge.
Thanks for your assistance, !

Any other Guru who has the time to spare on my question will be highly appreciated too.

Well, well, well!!!!! Many things happening at the same time.

For those who don't have WEMA yet, please don't join the train when it has left the stop! Move on to something else. While the Q1 result was impressive, note that the same thing happened last year. Details of how bad the loans are no one knows. Moreover, you have the issue of technical suspension, share dilution etc to cope with.

For those advising WEMA not to go to the market quickly, if they don't they will cease to exist. They have one of the lowest shareholders fund. They are a good target for acquisition. Hence shoring up the shareholders fund will be a priority.

WEMA is on a loan recovery spree. Expect to see them dragging many companies to court soon.

For those who have sold, just move on to better things. There are better stocks out there. So don't get fixated with WEMA. Take positions in other stocks.

On my lovely Chellarams, join me to just celebrate. Bought some 2 yrs ago at about 1.71. Got a bonus of 1 for 1, consistent 15k dividend and price now 5.77. Good thing is the staedy growth. Strong business model. Still a trading company mainly with strong Indian backing. They are expected to do an offer (PO/Rights). This being on the card for a while.

One thing that is obvious is that most people make decisions based on emotions. That is a recipe for disaster. The market does not consider your feelings so you get punished badly.

I also see that quite a number of people are over diversified. I think at this point, people need to structure their portfolio to determine what they are going for. Growth, income etc and balance that with the risk they are willing to take. When you are overdiversified, your portfolio can only make AVERAGE returns.

For FBN, right from the onset, IBTC got it right that the forecast was very pessimistic. First Bank makes a greater part of their profit in Q4. So expect a PAT > N30bn. Note also that they are yet to receive the money from their offer. Guess that is what is pushing Zenith.

Zenith may be consumed by the passion/ambition of being the biggest. I fear for them. Moreove, it is still seeing as a bank of the OVIA's. Also, succession will be a problem. I hope all goes well for them. Definitely, they are up there now.

Nigerian German, what is left to say. Being singing about them since!!! June last year it was 4.00. August this year it was 12.6. This is a 20.00/25.00 stock. Not a liquid stock but very solid!

Trans Express, that is the next NAHCO on the block!!!!!! Very illiquid stock. Not available. Placed order for over 4 months now. They are set for a rights and a public offer. They are repositioning. Guess they are watching what Red Star Express will do before making a move. Please if you get to buy, even if it is 10 units, please get some!

BAGCO is a good company depending on the price that they will come out. Profit margin is good. You just need to check Flour Mills report and Dangote Flour prospectus and you will see that the bag/sack comapnies have the highest margins.

Diamond still looking attractive. IBTC still over valued. ETI good but don't expect that much capital appreciation. They just resolved some boardroom issues as per share ownership. Ecobank Nigeria is a no go area for me.

On insurance, be careful!!!!!! Those guys know next to nothing about corporate gorvernance. Mergers without scheme of merger document. Most are releasing interim results while the full year result is no where to be found. Share oustanding is like a secret. I am wary of them and the market is penalising them accordingly. Add this to the uncertainty in the consolidation process itself. When will it end??

November is always the month to take positions. Half year and 9 month result of most blue chips will be out now. GTB is due. let's see what they come up with!

As per Union Bank, don't know why someone should own shares of such a backward company!!!! FBN 6 months is out while UBN full year is yet to be found! Everything about them is archaic. Maybe Access should really acquire them.

hbrednic:

@frankiriri
i never knew you work with zenith sec bros.
my dangote share cert has been sleeping there for over 2months wating for verification?
even my balance for the un- alloted (6,000)shares from dsr ipo,whosai
please i wonder why all the delays?

I dont work for Zenith securities. I work for Zenith bank. I use Zenith securities as my brokers

If reports in Business day is anything to go buy, First Bank will only absorb N250bn

hispy99:

@Pumping

Tranex result is for 9-month ending Sept 2007 and not Q1. PAT will be around N54million for FYE 2007 if you annualize and if you use your 132 million shares outstanding and N0.81 price, then you are looking @ a PE less than 2 . Is this possible? . Not quite as juicy using your PAT N180 million, but still looks too good to be true. Is this 132 million shares outstanding correct? Guys please help

Thanks for pointing that out. I said I did not want to print the numbers for the fundamentals. It rocks.

Rob-roy:

@ Pumping 777
Sir,
I have a question for you, From the perspective of a chap with very limited funds, would you please help me narrow my prospective purchases to 2,
My favorites are :
1. upcoming Bagco PO
2. Costain
3. bank Phb
4. Zenith PO
5.MAYBE Obajana, I heard someone mention it, don't know if it is still coming out,

As you can see I am looking for IPO's and cheaper stocks that I could get more units of versus quality ( no Nestle for me yet!)
I already have 2 choices but I need corroboration from a guru before I take the plunge.
Thanks for your assistance, !
Any other Guru who has the time to spare on my question will be highly appreciated too.

Frankly I can make a final decision without seeing the prospectus for these offers but based on what I know now I will have these candidates.

1. Costain
2. Bank PHB or Zenith

pumping777:

Frankly I can make a final decision without seeing the prospectus for these offers but based on what I know now I will have these candidates.

1. Costain
2. Bank PHB or Zenith

In actual fact you have read my mind refer to the analysis i did a while for these two stocks  for Bank PHP ---->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1619655#msg1619655 and

for Costain--->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1552345#msg1552345

In actual after Flour Mills Costain has probably the best fundamentals going forward so there goes your answer

@all

Wema is still a Buy for me!
I dun think TS is as fast approaching as has been trumpeted.
The loans that were written off are still recoverable.
Even a conservative estimate should place wema at 16 naira at full year.

wanaj0:

Well, well, well!!!!! Many things happening at the same time.

For those who don't have WEMA yet, please don't join the train when it has left the stop! Move on to something else. While the Q1 result was impressive, note that the same thing happened last year. Details of how bad the loans are no one knows. Moreover, you have the issue of technical suspension, share dilution etc to cope with.

For those advising WEMA not to go to the market quickly, if they don't they will cease to exist. They have one of the lowest shareholders fund. They are a good target for acquisition. Hence shoring up the shareholders fund will be a priority.

WEMA is on a loan recovery spree. Expect to see them dragging many companies to court soon.

For those who have sold, just move on to better things. There are better stocks out there. So don't get fixated with WEMA. Take positions in other stocks.

I understand your sentiments about WEMA, but I will still buy small units.

wanaj0:


For FBN, right from the onset, IBTC got it right that the forecast was very pessimistic. First Bank makes a greater part of their profit in Q4. So expect a PAT > N30bn. Note also that they are yet to receive the money from their offer. Guess that is what is pushing Zenith.

Zenith may be consumed by the passion/ambition of being the biggest. I fear for them. Moreove, it is still seeing as a bank of the OVIA's. Also, succession will be a problem. I hope all goes well for them. Definitely, they are up there now.

@Wanaj0,

I will agree with you on the Zenith issue, OVIA is comsumed mindlessly with a passion to surpass FBN. He is on the right track  for now, but  there is no succession planning.

Same goes for Oceanic.
All the other banks that should be reckoned with have survived the succession plan test with flying colors -e.g GTB, FBN, PHB.

Time will tell.


lastly, on the issue of overdiversification, this is a relative term. Honestly, for me having 5 -7 companies is enough.

But I still believe in Long term investment sha. 2-4 years, you get the best returns. My investment in GTB in the last 5 years has multiplied well over 1000% , I still beat myself today that I did not investment more then I will be smiling to the bank.

Personally for me, I am looking to get cheaply companies that have a sustainable model over a long period of time.

RoughCut:


In actual fact you have read my mind refer to the analysis i did a while for these two stocks for Bank PHP ---->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1619655#msg1619655 and

for Costain--->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1552345#msg1552345

In actual after Flour Mills Costain has probably the best fundamentals going forward so there goes your answer

Nigerian German Chemicals and Costain are quite good.

For Costain, let wait for the prospectus and then decide whether it is still worth it or not- we should not forget dilution.


@Wanaj0,

This one that Bagco is coming to the market, is it wise to wait for bagco and buy it rather than plunge into Flourmills.

I dont know why Flourmills wants to share the profitability of their money spinner with the public?

Wema bullishly closed 10.61 today (5% max) with 52.3m units - Low of 10.31. Sign of bulging momemtum next wk? Fingers crossed!!

yodiyokun:

@Wanaj0,

This one that Bagco is coming to the market, is it wise to wait for bagco and buy it rather than plunge into Flourmills.

I don't know why Flourmills wants to share the profitability of their money spinner with the public?

I am thinking that Flour Mills will maintain minority interest in the company. The plan in my mind will be an expansion of Bagco operations so Bagco may still contribute as much or even more to Flour Mills than it does now. The prospectus will clear the air.

@ wanaj0

On the issue of overdiversification, overdiversification (10 - 20) works well when the mkt is seriously bearish and the need to preserve one's trading capital is totally paramount; but during bullish periods, then concentration on few stocks (with timely entry & exit) is the order of the day thus maximising potential gains etc.

Temmie10:

@all

Wema is still a Buy for me!
I dun think TS is as fast approaching as has been trumpeted.
The loans that were written off are still recoverable.
Even a conservative estimate should place wema at 16 naira at full year.

Thanks for the IBTC attachment. They have Wema's fair value at N18, but once it crosses N13, I'm going to start selling.

yodiyokun:


Ilastly, on the issue of overdiversification, this is a relative term. Honestly, for me having 5 -7 companies is enough.

But I still believe in Long term investment sha. 2-4 years, you get the best returns. My investment in GTB in the last 5 years has multiplied well over 1000% , I still beat myself today that I did not investment more then I will be smiling to the bank.

5-7 is my optimum as well. I've seen portfolios with 20+ stocks and I never understood why.

I'm still working on my patience to become a long-termer. Thing is I see too many opportunities and tend to dump my 9-12 months stocks to HIT that opportunity. Paid off this year with Wema (was 80% of my 'folio) but with my BP trending up , I no go try am again o!

@ Wanajo, Easimoni and Pumping

Will it be a good move to invest in Fedelity PO?

Mr Cee,
I believe the consensus on this thread is that FCMB is a marginally better offer; at the PO prices, Fidelity is selling at a 20% premium to FCMB on a forward PE basis. + FCMB has shown us some interim results that indicates an ability to meet the (ambitious) forecast. Fidelity has shown us nothing and their forecast is even more ambitious.

FCMB wins!

@PUMPING, WANAJO AND OTHER GURU'S IN THE HOUSE

What do you guys have to say as per these companies:

1. African Paint plc, Penny Stock

2. Standard Alliance Ins. Plc

3. Grommac plc.

Please, urgent reply is needed.

Peace.

@ EASIMONI

Thanks a lot but at the price 8 Naira (FIDELITY) don't you think it might be kind of good to gamble with caution? what do you think?

pumping777:

I am thinking that Flour Mills will maintain minority interest in the company. The plan in my mind will be an expansion of Bagco operations so Bagco may still contribute as much or even more to Flour Mills than it does now. The prospectus will clear the air.

This is the info I have on BAGCO

Issued and fully paid: 4.35 billion shares
Offer for Subscription: 1.865 billion shares additional shares

Flour Mills will still own about 70% of the firm after the IPO. Also 50% of the 1.865 billion will be preferentially alloted to identified investors.

Price is N3.90.
The info above may change, but it should not devaite from these numbers dramatically

Mr. Cee:

@ EASIMONI

Thanks a lot but at the price 8 Naira (FIDELITY) don't you think it might be kind of good to gamble with caution? what do you think?

The discount can be deceptive sometimes remember we are talking share dilution here and if a company cannot grow PAT more than the proportion at which the shares are diluted then you find you are not getting anything tangibe in return for your outlay for a long time. It doesnt really matter if you buy a stock at N8 or another N100 the issue is the earnings potential and how long will it take you to recoup your initial investment plus profit or yield and how much is the yield so that's why it's always a good idea to do some number crunching to give you an idea of how much you will be getting in return and how long before you start realising gains.

Mr. Cee:

@ Wanajo, Easimoni and Pumping

Will it be a good move to invest in Fedelity PO?

Not with my money. 

If you must buy PO right now, consider FCMB.

Mr. Cee:

@ EASIMONI

Thanks a lot but at the price 8 Naira (FIDELITY) don't you think it might be kind of good to gamble with caution? what do you think?

Be careful with this "discount" because it may not be as much as it looks. Existing shareholders may be issued bonus shares and you won't be entitled to it. This will chop into the "discount".