iconbull:

@fatherof2
@kipneo
You ar quite right.though shares in issue for the insurance industry are quite high peered wt other industies.your broker can still queue up 4 AIICO, supply wl surface soon. you can now buy shares on TS at discounts rather than premium, infact i sold some FCMB @16.20 3 wks ago while it was 17 on the floor.crazy thins can happen in ds mkt, all u hav 2 do is search.well,well.

It is not insurance in general, it is Aiico in particular. The stock did not benefit from the insurance bull run.  When Aiico was N3.45, Lawunion was N3. Check out the price of Lawunion now. Just an example.

The stock is right now undervalued. Even if you add the shares from the current PO, the fundamentals are still good based on the forecast PAT for 2008. Projected PE under 18.  So if you are waiting for Aiico supply to surface during this TS, you will have a long wait.

Fundamentally or technically, there are positive signs and people know it. So buying at a premium is not a bad idea. 

Hi Pumping777 and the House,

Point blank, which sector do you think will do it, I mean give more than 75%, during the first and second quarters of 2008? Can we discuss this please. And Pumping777 remember millions here respect your opinion a lot. Regards

@Mr. Risky, I will vote for the insurance sector to do a 100 % next year. Lets hear what Pumping 777 will have to say to this.

Pls can someone tell me how good the Bank PhB IPO is. I am a novice in this stock thing. Any good prospect in it??

Thank you in advance. No vex if i used any wrong terminology.

ckenneths:

@Mr. Risky, I will vote for the insurance sector to do a 100 % next year. Lets hear what Pumping 777 will have to say to this.

So you advice me to leave my Insurance stocks till next year? I have Crusader, International Energy, Mbenefit and Lasaco.

For example I bought Lasaco @ 1.80 and I was just planning to offload it next week but if “the voice in the wilderness” says Lasaco will hit double digit next year I better wait abi?

ckenneths:

@Mr. Risky, I will vote for the insurance sector to do a 100 % next year. Lets hear what Pumping 777 will have to say to this.

ckenneths,
I seem to share your sentiments that the Insurance Sector will perform 100%. I have lately become scared of them, going by my recent experience with Crusader. A major claim can wipe out the whole profit of any of them in just one quarter. Crusader recorded 593m in its halfyear result only to regress in its 3rd quarter result to 572!!!!!!!!!!! Assuming there is another major claim waiting, investors are simply left with virtually nothing to expect unless prices cascading to the south! That experience really scared me. Do these insruance companies have a hedge against this kind of experience?

What is pushing the Chemical and Allied sector? They seem to be moving, name it, CAP and Niger German Chemicals, and there still appears to be great potentials for them to perform well in the coming year.

I seem poised for banks that would expand their reaches to other African countries and even beyond. Yes, there is great market in Nigeria, but the catchment is the challenge, and that will not improve until the financial system is finetuned to make banking necessary for most transactions. That makes me think that with the passing years, the banks will might have a limit to their growth potentials.

So Ken, what are your picks against the first quarter of 2008?

I have been amassing NGC and hope to do more of C & I Leasing. They have great prospects going forward. And Bank PHB aggressiveness will see them through, I seem to have this faith, hence I will go pick from the floor. I am no longer interested in any PO whether under priced or not, my experience with FBN is biting, not having received over half a million naira returned!

Yes o, my broker told me today that First Bank has returned my money.

You broker is reliable.
Some brokers will not tell you until after 6 months.
It happened to me on DSR.

Any Info on transcorp, has anybody done any RSI or other analysis on it, i bought at #4 two months ago, all i keep hearing is bad news about the company, i've taken a 15% loss already but i am thinking of off loading it to buy some other viable stocks, or is it likely to start heading north soon, what amazes me is that there seems to be a lot of trading on it on a daily basis which means ppl are still buying it, so i don't know if i shud buy more now to lower my average cost or i should move on to something else, I see a lot of stocks heading north on a daily basis, even against all odds (like unity bank), so guru's my question is, shud i buy more transcorp or move on to something else, i was hoping to get rich with transcorp, i invested heavily in it

Mr. Risky:


ckenneths,
I seem to share your sentiments that the Insurance Sector will perform 100%.  I have lately become scared of them, going by my recent experience with Crusader.  A major claim can wipe out the whole profit of any of them in just one quarter.  Crusader recorded 593m in its halfyear result only to regress in its 3rd quarter result to 572!!!!!!!!!!!  Assuming there is another major claim waiting, investors are simply left with virtually nothing to expect unless prices cascading to the south!  That experience really scared me.  Do these insruance companies have a hedge against this kind of experience?

The insurance industry will  perform well next year , the growth potential in the sector is quite obvious for discerning investors to position .A cursory glance at the quarterly earnings shows the earning potentials.Firms like Linkage assurance  leaping into profits from loss position , Cornerstone  posting 850% in the last quarter .  The only way to INSURE yourself against the inherent risks of heavy claims against a particular company is to buy into  number of them , preferably 4 or 5  companies and hopefully they will not be affected by claims that will affect their bottom line. My point is you can hedge your business risk by diversifying.  

Gurus , what's your take on the risks of heavy claims affecting the insurance  firms bottomline ?

Got this from Proshare


Making companies liable to public offer forecasts
Posted Friday, December 14, 2007


Forecasts made by some companies in their public offer documents have turned out to be misleading and some thing urgently needs to be done to arrest the situation.



Forecasts are part of the requirements by the regulatory authorities in the process of floating new issues and preparation of prospectuses. It is the process of analyzing current and historical data to determine future trends. Forecasting is therefore used to value companies and their securities.



Some of the indicators expected in forecasting include gross earning, profit before tax, profit after tax, dividend, earning per share, dividend per share, price earning ratio, dividend cover, earning yield and dividend yield.



Finanacial forecasting, according to Olufemi Akande , a director of West African Capital Market School, allows early capture of gains or loss and helps expert users see discrepancies between model and target price. It aids the investor in his decision making process.



In Nigeria, some companies coming to the market to raise money prepare projections that miss their targets. For example, some banks prepare prospectuses and forecast in the ongoing consolidation exercise and at the end of the day such projections are not realized and yet they have returned to the market for the same purpose, and both the regulatory authorities and investors have remained adamant. Failed forecasts simply demonstrates the inefficiency of issuing houses and investment advisers that prepare the offer. The implication is that investors who made their decisions based on such forecasts are deceived and the culprits companies are allowed to go scot free.



It is in realization of the severity of failed forecast that the London Stock exchange waves it as a requirement in the offer document.



According to LSE officials, over in UK, companies are accountable for the actions .



In view of the importance of forecast in Nigeria and the fact that it is expected to be a reliable guide, the Securities and the Nigerian Stock Exchange should ensure that such misleading information are made actionable such that aggrieved stakeholders who are short changed on account of the projection can sue the company and those associated with the preparation of the offer document.



The Investment and Securities Act (ISA) should therefore be amended to contain such provisions while the Investment and Securities Tribunal should be statutorily empowered to prosecute such offences. Towards enforcing this, companies should also contribute to the Investor Protection Fund so that in the event of investors being misled by such false information, they could sue the relevant company.



Such steps would compel companies to be more efficient and thorough in preparing the projections made in offer documents. -

Hi Wanaj0,

Please, quickly finish up and come back. We don miss you seriously.

Peace.

pumping777:

3,759,398,500 additional shares of Diamond Bank Plc by way of GDR

about $507.5m which means the GDR was oversubscribed?

Please can someone tell me how good the Bank PhB's IPO is. I am a novice in this stock thing. Any good prospect in it??

Thank you in advance. No vex if i used any wrong terminology.

Mr. Risky:

Hi Pumping777 and the House,

Point blank, which sector do you think will do it, I mean give more than 75%, during the first and second quarters of 2008?  Can we discuss this please.  And Pumping777 remember millions here respect your opinion a lot.  Regards

If you are cosidering a whole sector, insurance stocks probably have the best chance of highest returns next year. This is because these companies are still small and have just started growing. However, I think we won't see 75% or 100% capital appreciation compared to today's prices until these companies start releasing their half year results. Good results.


As it was already noted, not every insurance stock will do so well, so carefully selecting at least 2 or 3 stocks will be the way to minimize the chance of missing out.

Personally, I am not focusing on any particular sector because I think I can find individual stocks in some other sectors that will outperform a bit of the insurance stocks. I am not so versatile with the sector dynamics.

Pumping 777,

If you are to buy stock from the insurance sector now,which of them will you choose and why?.

Peace.

@ Pumping,

I've been a silent observer and quite appreciate your insights.

I'be in Philly the whole of next week. I can be reached at: charliemike1ng at yahoo dot com.

Would love to share a cup of coffee with you.

pumping777:

If you are cosidering a whole sector, insurance stocks probably have the best chance of highest returns next year. This is because these companies are still small and have just started growing. However, I think we won't see 75% or 100% capital appreciation compared to today's prices until these companies start releasing their half year results. Good results.


As it was already noted, not every insurance stock will do so well, so carefully selecting at least 2 or 3 stocks will be the way to minimize the chance of missing out.

Personally, I am not focusing on any particular sector because I think I can find individual stocks in some other sectors that will outperform a bit of the insurance stocks. I am not so versatile with the sector dynamics.

Dear pumping

I can see you're being pushed to make one insurance pick.

faketan:

Please can someone tell me how good the Bank PhB's IPO is. I am a novice in this stock thing. Any good prospect in it??

Thank you in advance. No vex if i used any wrong terminology.

@ faketan

go to the previous page , there is a link to a detailed analysis on the offer. I think its a good offer and some gurus think so to but you can draw your conclusions after reading the attached link.

@Shigidi

You can save me a lot of reading by telling me:

RSI = 100 - 100/(1+RS)

What indicates a buy? Is it a high or low RSI?
Please spoil me by telling me.

Thanks.

Samstone4

@ samstone, as RSI approaches 30, it is favorable, as it approaches 70, it becomes unfavorable, it is overbought at this point and thus undervalued. what you can do is use a company as an example such as dangote sugar, calculate its rsi and i bet you its under 50.
holla if u have more questions

sorry i meant overbought and over valued as it approaches 70

bigjay01:

about $507.5m which means the GDR was oversubscribed?

@Bigjay,

You appear to be a  doc,going by your signature post.

You go MEDILAG by any chance.My alma mata,by the way,

tonyjon:

Pumping 777,

If you are to buy stock from the insurance sector now,which of them will you choose and why?.

Peace.

Ha, make I buy finish first The price is finally heading to my bid destination.

If I holla now, the big boyz and girlz here fit out-muscle my broker or even have the price heading north again

Anyway, most folks know my favourite insurance stock. Just that it has absorbed too much of a premium right now but it is now shedding some weight.

@ pumping777
a beg,ejoo,ndo,biko dont b stingy kindly share.giv nd it sha be given unto u,good measure pressed down nd shaken together,halleluja! amen!

Thank you barge.

Krrush:

@Bigjay,

You appear to be a doc,going by your signature post.

You go MEDILAG by any chance.My alma mata,by the way,

Medilag alumnus here.Which set were you?

blueband:


Medilag alumnus here.Which set were you?

hmmmm, una wan start again o . . .

gbangban:

@ Pumping,

I've been a silent observer and quite appreciate your insights.

I'be in Philly the whole of next week. I can be reached at:  charliemike1ng at yahoo dot com.

Would love to share a cup of coffee with you.

Anytime, but too late this time. I left Philly for Corpus, Texas today. Vacation don start till 2nd week of January. The cold in Philly got the better of me so I came here with my family for a little sunshine and we have not been disappointed.

Make we holla via email sha.

@Shigidi

Thanks for the info re: RSI.
Will see how it works for a basic fundamentalist like myself.

Samstone4

[color=#770077]Transcorp, advice needed, should i sell and take a loss or not, or is the stock likely to recover soon, most of my capital is tied down there, i am thinking of selling off and investing in the insurance sector, i need some advice today so i can act tomorrow, thx[/color]

gonziiii:

[color=#770077]Transcorp, advice needed, should i sell and take a loss or not, or is the stock likely to recover soon, most of my capital is tied down there, i am thinking of selling off and investing in the insurance sector, i need some advice today so i can act tomorrow, thx[/color]

I think someone already answered you, if u are a short termer, Transcorp isnt for you, be ready to wait till at least 2009.
It depends on you and how much of a loss you want to take, me personally I would jump out because they are many better opportunities out there that will appreciate in 2008.

hi everyone

wat r d hot stock pick 4 year 2008