RoughCut:

i[b] wan follow Pumping stop small for mid-air refuelling yesterday [/b] but i decided against it i still dey seriously on board just go inside the luggage compartment to check say my 75,000KG luggage still dey kampe!

A beg where ololufemi dey sit sef window or aisle?

As i don dey married now wifey go vex if she come know say i dey 'chat' with air hostess so i no follow go gist with air hostess o

My reference to refueling na just to say the price fit see downside for some time on the floor yesterday and not stay on 5% max gain all day.  Some may have offloaded some luggage at that point. Not me sha. I no offload nada from my luggage rara till I reach cruising altitude and then ejector button one time! Swoosh!

The party for Mbenefit should start today preferably with another drop. Check it out and if convinced, pick up a ticket at a box office near you. Make your hotel reservation for about 1 and a half weeks. Unfortunately I will be unavoidably absent at this bash.

Interesting thing. Mbenefit has only appreciated by about 30% since the release of the consolidation funds. This is very small compared to other insurance stocks that have done 70% and over.

pumping777:

My reference to refueling na just to say the price fit see downside for some time on the floor yesterday and not stay on 5% max gain all day. Some may have offloaded some luggage at that point. Not me sha. I no offload nada from my luggage rara till I reach cruising altitude and then ejector button one time! Swoosh!

I don dey eye the Skye bank flight when it comes off TS as their YE is March dont forget they have just released 'good' Q3 results so hopefully i can get on the supersonic jet and just enough time to bail out before i reconnect on PHB jet again for the YE results expected in July.

Why does Roll-On Roll-off(RORO) sound better than CICO?

Roughtcut, Afamako, Windywendy,

EPS 2005 was N231.60
EPS 2006 was N306.30, Dividend per share N288.6
EPS 2007 was N130.30 (half year) Dividend per share N191.5 (half year)
EPS 2007 estimate is N260.6

Note:
2007 PAT will be lower than 2007 due to tax payment. Prior to 2007, MTN was getting investmnet tax credit and enjoying a pioneer status.

Now @ $25/per share and N120.00 to a $, you have an estimated historical PE of 11.5. Far better than the historical PE's of any of the banks but not as fantastic as CHAMS.

Going forward, a 40% growth in PAT p.a. is realistic. For those who can wait for 3 years or more, I think it is a good investment. Definitely better than most offers out there.

As per comparison with South Africa, the growth rate and margin is South Africa is lower than that in Nigeria. You still have a lot of untapped market here in Nigeria. Right now the focus is mainly on voice. The market for data is huge and may even be comparable with voice. So there is room for growth.

The tax payment will impact the profit and distort teh growth rate in the FY 2007 result. But going forward, things should stabilise.

There seems to be value for those who can wait.

Though I do not have the cash flow statement, I am impressed by the balance sheet. The liability is not that much (don't think the recently syndicated loan is included). The reserve is impressive. They've accumulated cash over teh years. They just started paying dividend in 2006. So they are not highly geared like many otehr companies.

To the best of my knowledge, they are not issuing new shares so in principle the share capital is not being increased. It's more like divestment. Sand corrected on this though.

hi to you all.just joined the thread last week aldo hav bn following ur conversations for a year now.tanks to guys who hav mentored alot of people on this thread. may the good lord repay ur investments beta than lasy year. once again, tanks and kip up d good job.

invisible!:

@ question, the NSE is still 'immune' or do I use 'insulated' to all those crashes and falls in the global economy. This is one area where it is good to be a poor nation. Let their stocks keep falling untill we go in and help them buy up some stake, we are their business friends, what are friends for anyway?

@ Invisible, Some of the NSE big banks have foreign investors and investments like the GDRs
What if these investors/investments are affected by the global economic crunch.

@help me,

help me:

You are telling me,she is lieing to me,i will call her tomorrow to sell and she should not lie to me.She forget say i get my invisble and best brokers for nairaland.

Before you harrass you rbroker, let's get somethings straight. Maybe we may not have understood you completely either because you've not explained well. There are instatnces where your stock can be on "pending" for instance if you bought from the secondary market and it hasn't been up to 3 days, if you log on to your CSCS account(which all brokers have, and where they see the status of your shares) it will show "pending" for that number of shares, until CSCS has cleared it and it now moves to the column "balance". This also happens when you send in your certificate for verification, once your certificate has been verified and is lodged with the CSCS, you will see it on the "balance" column and it's only then that you can sell such shares.

I hope this helps, just my 2 kobo.

@question, the banks that has such investments are only two, less than 1% of the companies on our exchange.

I dont think they will cause much damage.

@Pumping,
Hello Sir, how are you doing?? Pls I sent you a PM, abi IM

upward:

@help me,

Before you harrass you rbroker, let's get somethings straight. Maybe we may not have understood you completely either because you've not explained well. There are instatnces where your stock can be on "pending" for instance if you bought from the secondary market and it hasn't been up to 3 days, if you log on to your CSCS account(which all brokers have, and where they see the status of your shares) it will show "pending" for that number of shares, until CSCS has cleared it and it now moves to the column "balance". This also happens when you send in your certificate for verification, once your certificate has been verified and is lodged with the CSCS, you will see it on the "balance" column and it's only then that you can sell such shares.

I hope this helps, just my 2 kobo.

This explains"pending" status in your CSCS account. If you click on the stock, you get the details of the trade that has changed the status to "pending".

In your stock broker's account "pending" will usually mean that the trade has not been executed. I think this is the situation of help me.

@ALL THE INVISIBLE AND BEST BROKERS,
I REALLY APPRECIATE ALL YOUR EFFORT,YOU ARE THE TRAIN OF OUR INCOMES,
WITHOUT YOU ALL HERE NA GBESE BE THAT.MAY THE ALMIGHTY BE WITH YOU,
YOUR FAMILIES AND PORTFOLIOS.THANKS.

@
i dont think the global recession in the capitalmarket will last beyond 2 weeks.despite all that our dear NSE is immuned.

iconbull:

@
i don't think the global recession in the capitalmarket will last beyond 2 weeks.despite all that our dear NSE is immuned.

1. I think it will last for more than 2 weeks. There is serious loss of investor confidence.
2. The length of time does not really matter since there is no restriction on the amount of value a stock can lose or gain in a single day like we have on the NSE. Imagine some stocks losing like 25% or higher in a single day. These markets can crash in less than a week.
3. NSE is not 100%immune. Nigerian economy prosperity is also linked to globalization. NSE will not be hit hard but some impact will be felt. Many of our banks for instance have looked outside our shores for investments. Good returns from such expansion plans are threatened. Also imagine that facilities such as loans and grants from foreign govenments or institutions will be affected. These all have a role to play in stimulating the economy by creating jobs or domestic demand for goods and services.

@ pumping, the global economic crunch will affect NSE minimally. What do you think the entrance of some foreign market players into the NSE will be? Negative or positive?

invisible!:

@ pumping, the global economic crunch will affect NSE minimally. What do you think the entrance of some foreign market players into the NSE will be? Negative or positive?

I did not use the word minimal but you will see that it is exactly what I also implied.  I just don't agree that we are 100% immune.

I know the first thing many people think is that if these markets crash then the funds will move here. Good logic but the problem is that the our market is still TOO small. I believe I read somewhere that the capitalization of the entire NSE is about the same as that of McDonalds.

So while foreign market players will boost the market positively, there are other negative impacts of a recession in the US and other matured economies.

Bringing funds into the capital market to chase few stocks is one thing but creating econonic activity which is the stimulant for real economic growth is by far more important.

pumping777:

The party for Mbenefit should start today preferably with another drop. Check it out and if convinced, pick up a ticket at a box office near you. Make your hotel reservation for about 1 and a half weeks. Unfortunately I will be unavoidably absent at this bash.

Interesting thing. Mbenefit has only appreciated by about 30% since the release of the consolidation funds. This is very small compared to other insurance stocks that have done 70% and over.

@ Pumping,do you mean today is the entrance point for mbenefit,or do i still wait for a small fall.

@babaof 2,wanajo,
please whats behind this japaul and equity assuance drive.seems overpriced to me.

husu:

@ Pumping,do you mean today is the entrance point for mbenefit,or do i still wait for a small fall.

Today should be a good day. If it falls again today you may benefit by buying at a lower price than yesterday's closing price and it is more likely your trade will be executed. Also, if the price falls today, I will expect a turnaroud by tomorrow or latest on Thursday.

dokun23:

@babaof 2,wanajo,
please whats behind this japaul and equity assuance drive.seems overpriced to me.

Japaul, Japual! Seems the price is being driven up cause of rumours of impending bonus in the FY results due maybe in Feb! Though 3Q results was slightly above projections showing a good FY in the offing, the price it is at now is just alarming. However, it should still have some pickings for PO grabbers (ncluding yours truly ) as the monies from the PO are just been deployed. Good medium/long term investment!

pumping777:

Today should be a good day. If it falls again today you may benefit by buying at a lower price than yesterday's closing price and it is more likely your trade will be executed. Also, if the price falls today, I will expect a turnaroud by tomorrow or latest on Thursday.

pumping i can see ur views on the global market.i pray this mutual benefit will live up to its name. i mean benefits for everybody not a solo PHB flight that has refused to descend.i entered 32.5 today

I hate been reminded about Japaul.Sold at 8 naira just a couple of weeks ago.

iconbull:

pumping i can see your views on the global market.i pray this mutual benefit will live up to its name. i mean benefits for everybody not a solo PHB flight that has refused to descend.i entered 32.5 today

That is high. N31.50 would have been a reasonable limit for today. I expect the price today to range from around N31 to around N32.50. The stock will probably end up with only marginal gains today anyway or even a loss so you should be able to get around or below the median price.

The loss does not translate to panic though if it does happen.

Cant believe  I sold Japaul at N7:50!   Chei!   NSE!

blueband:

I hate been reminded about Japaul.Sold at 8 naira just a couple of weeks ago.

And of course made profit which you forgot to share with us   Enjoy your gains my brother.

Afribank will have a tough time holding on to yesterday's gain but if it pulls it off today coasting should be possible already this week.

@pumping,ure next post should be 777.what a great coincidence

thought u'all might like to know that proshareng has finally caught up with this forum's analysis of Unilever. well done guys. we should all be proud. its time to make some dosh methinks

Equity Research Report on Unilever Nig. Plc – Jan’08
Posted Monday, January 21, 2008



Unilever Nigeria Plc: In pursuit of aggressive growth strategy and product innovations for growing market share and creating superb value.



Background

Unilever is a market leader and prominent producer and marketer of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) with three Strategic Business Units (SBUs) - Foods, Home care and Personal care. It has three manufacturing plants in key strategic locations in the country-Aba (Abia State), Oregun (Lagos State) and Agbara (Ogun State) and currently plans to invest about N5bn on aggressive plant expansion. Unilever’s product brands are super brands amongst other competing brands. The company’s foods division is the largest seller of packet tea with the Lipton brand leading the foods and beverages category. The company is also a leader in margarine production in the country with unrivalled product quality of Blue Band brand. The Home & Personal care divisions are highly visible in the consumer markets in the country. Notable amongst its product portfolio includes foods/food ingredients, cleansing and hygiene products such as Key, Omo, Close up, Lux, Pears, Vaseline, Sunsilk Blue Band, Knorr, Lipton and Royco.



Revenue

The Company’s revenue has consistently been driven by the Personal Care business unit which accounts for over 40 per cent of annual sales revenue while the other units- Food and Home care share the remaining 60 per cent almost in equal proportion. However, the company changed its traditional business model in the fiscal year 2006 which saw the food unit accounting for 42 per cent of sales revenue while Home and Personal Care divisions account for 19 per cent and 39 per cent respectively.



Performance

Owing to certain fundamental defects in its business models and operational structures, especially the supply chain, Unilever was faced with crisis-ridden fiscal years in 2005 and 2006.This was further compounded by harsh economic realities, banking reforms and other unfavourable legislations/government policies. All these resulted into marked declines in overall performance indices and ultimately, erosion of its Shareholders’ funds. Turnover dropped by over 31 per cent, earnings per share (EPS) was negative 0.43k (FYE 2006) while owners’ equity value diminished by almost 41 per cent.



However, management efforts and paternal support from its sister company abroad- Unilever global (which holds 50.4 per cent of its issued shares in the name of Unilever overseas Holdings B.V)has brought about impressive structural and processes restructuring as well as operational revamping. The recent quarterly results bear credence to the efficacy of these concerted efforts and strategies. In its third quarter period ended September 30, 2008, underlying sales revenue grew by 56.5 per cent to N26.51bn while Profit Before Tax (PBT) was N2.29bn compared to a loss of N2.03bn reported in the corresponding quarter of prior year. Similarly, after tax profit and exceptional items (due to impairments) (PAT&EI) was N1.12bn against a loss of N1.63bn in the similar period of previous year.



Forecast

Our forecasts put FYE December 31, 2007 turnover at N42.41bn and PBT at N3.32bn. PAT & Extraordinary Items is estimated at N1.82bn, translating to EPS of N0.48k up from (N0.43k) posted in 2006FYE.



This is premised on the estimated turnover growth of 66 per cent while PBT and PAT are projected to grow by 235 per cent and 213 per cent respectively over the prior years.



There are strong convictions that Unilever Nigeria Plc is back on the path of recovery to profitability and growth. However, there is a thin likelihood of dividend expectation from the company for the year ended December 31, 2007.



Renowned for its significantly high pay-out which averaged 88 in 4 years, a moderate dividend payment is projected out of its expected earnings of about N1.82bn in December 31, 2007 FYE. A repeat of its dividend pay out culture suggests a dividend per share (DPS) of about N0.40k/share for 2007 FYE.

pumping777:

And of course made profit which you forgot to share with us   Enjoy your gains my brother.

SIMPLE,

Don't fret over what could have been.
If Japaul was lower than your sell price today.
I'm sure your story would be " I MADE A KILLING THERE THANKS FOR REMINDING ME"

@kpineo, & NBA,
Please guys, how can I subscribe to be receiving the bid/offer positions of shares daily

blueband:

I hate been reminded about Japaul.Sold at 8 naira just a couple of weeks ago.

I knew when you sold yours and I was contemplating to sell mine too but my broker told me to wait that something better still dey come.

That’s probably the first time I listen to her and am now am happy I did.

crazyT:



I knew when you sold yours and I was contemplating to sell mine too but my broker told me to wait that something better still dey come.

That’s probably the first time I listen to her and am now am happy I did.

And don't forget to show your appreciation. (Not by text message like someone said on this thread sha)

aktopgun:

thought u'all might like to know that proshareng has finally caught up with this forum's analysis of Unilever. well done guys. we should all be proud. its time to make some dosh methinks

Nairaland leads, all others follow! Kudos to ya all.

Pls, how's Tobechukwu doing?