EUR/USD. "Bear feast" cancelled: the ECB disappointed sellers of the pair

The proposition "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" summed up many EUR/USD traders today. It turned out the other way around: over the past few days, the pair has been selling on rumors of a large-scale easing of the ECB's monetary policy, and after the news, the euro then updated its high of the day and week. This situation confirms another notorious fact: anything can happen in the market, and even the most recognized algorithms sometimes fail.

However, so far it is only a short-term reaction of traders. There is no talk of any turning point in the trend, since the price has remained in the same positions as all previous days. If you do not take into account the 150-point price fluctuation, then we can say that the September meeting of the ECB did not affect the value of the pair. Of course, this fact looks anomalous, since all the decisions and theses voiced at today's meeting were against the euro. Perhaps, with one exception: Mario Draghi did not announce a further reduction in the interest rate. In other words, the entourage of previous events played a key role today. Representatives of the ECB, all kinds of experts, analysts, currency strategists and the successor of Mario Draghi - Christine Lagarde - all of them have been aggravating the situation for several weeks, preparing the market for large-scale easing of monetary policy parameters.

The European Central Bank as a whole met the expectations of the market by lowering the interest rate by 0.1% and announcing the resumption of QE from November 1 by 2.6 trillion euros with a monthly volume of 20 billion euros. But, as you know, "appetite comes with eating": market participants were ready for more drastic measures (lowering rates to -0.60%, and QE with a monthly volume of 40-50 billion). At least on the eve of today's meeting, precisely these values were discussed among experts (which, in fact, was responsible for the downward impulse of EUR/USD at the beginning of this week). Therefore, when the central bank announced its decision, the pair fell to the bottom of the 9th figure on emotions. Then the price bounced back - when it became clear that the regulator, firstly, didn't use the arsenal of available tools "to the fullest", and secondly, it made it clear that it did not intend to take the interest rate further into the negative area for the foreseeable future.

A similar situation was seen in December 2015. Back then, the European regulator abandoned the idea of using shock therapy, focusing on the option of a gradual and longer-term effect. In exactly the same way as now, four years ago, everyone was expecting and discussing the rate reduction during the previous several months. They also spoke with the same confidence about the expansion of the stimulating program: opinions differed only with regard to the size of the increase. However, the regulator only reduced the rate and did not resort to large-scale integrated measures. Moreover, Draghi made it clear that the ECB will not return to the issue of easing monetary policy for at least several months, giving the European economy time to recover. After this meeting, the EUR/USD pair rebounded and strengthened by 300 points, although many predicted the euro collapse.

Now the situation is somewhat different. On the one hand, Mario Draghi is unlikely to initiate and support the issue of further easing of monetary policy - at least until November. But his cadence ends in the last month of autumn, so the ECB's further steps will largely depend on Lagarde, who has already announced that the monetary policy is adaptive "in the foreseeable future", and the nature of the regulator's further actions will depend on the conditions of the financial market . She also said that she "does not believe" that the central bank has set an effective lower limit for interest rates. In other words, the future head of the ECB fairly transparently hinted at an acceptable backlash in this matter. This means that, hypothetically, the European regulator may not be limited to one round of lowering rates further into the negative area.

That is why the reaction of the EUR/USD bulls to the results of the September meeting is relatively limited. I can assume that if it were not for the "Lagarde factor", then the pair would be at least in the middle of the 11th figure, and maybe it would test more significant price heights. But for now, EUR/USD is trying to overcome only the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1060. If the bulls consolidate on this target, then the price will be the second resistance level of 1.1150 - this is the upper line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe. In general, the next critical "test" for the pair will take place next week, when the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. If the members of the US regulator, in contrast to the ECB, exceed the "dovish" expectations of investors, then the large-scale correction will be continued - up to 12-13 figures.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP/USD: the pound still hopes that the fog around Brexit will clear up

Over the past week, the pound has strengthened against the US dollar by almost 1.2% amid expectations that London and Brussels may soften their position on Brexit.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said that he was still focused on concluding a deal with the European Union under the terms of the country's withdrawal from the bloc.

"If we can make enough progress over the next few days, I intend to go to the EU summit on October 17 and conclude an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens both on both sides of the English channel and on both sides of the border in Ireland. I believe that we can do this, and I believe that such an agreement meets the interests of not only the UK, but also our European partners," said B. Johnson.

At the same time, he continues to insist that he will not ask the EU to provide another delay for Brexit.

In turn, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that there are no reasons for optimism about Brexit.

"The UK has not provided any alternative proposals on the Irish border for a month and a half of the functioning of the new government and half a year from the moment when the bill, agreed with the 27 EU members, entered the British Parliament, but was never ratified by it. In the coming weeks, we should see whether the government of B. Johnson is able to make any proposals that have legal force," M. Barnier said.

Recall that in Britain the law adopted by the country's Parliament came into force, according to which the government is obliged to ask the EU for a new deferral of Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on a new agreement on withdrawal by October 19.

B. Johnson intends to ignore the new law and is ready to fight for it in the British courts.

Today, the British Prime Minister met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg.

"The leaders agreed on the need to negotiate more intensively on Brexit and start holding daily meetings of representatives of the parties. An agreement was also reached on political negotiations between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The dialogue between president Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson will also continue," the office of the head of the British government said in a statement.

It is assumed that if the parties manage to reach a compromise, then the GBP/USD pair may well rise to the level of 1.2700.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Oil flies into the stratosphere

Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.

After a member of the royal family became the Minister of Energy for the first time in history, many suspected that something was wrong. Prices rose by leaps and bounds, and the attack on Abqaiq is perceived as a bolt from the blue, but only by a majority. When a crime occurs, one always wonders, "who benefits?" For a balanced budget, Saudi Arabia needed oil at $80 per barrel, but before the appointment of Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister, there were few reasons for a rapid rally. Reducing OPEC production did not help: the Americans were actively increasing production, and China was cutting demand. For a sharp rise in prices, force majeure was needed, and in an amazing way it became a reality.

One-day oil jumps

According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 19, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar successfully broke the support area, consisting of two lines - balance and MACD of price channels and indicator lines. Moreover, the breakthrough occurred today on quite good employment data. The growth of new jobs amounted to 34.7 thousand against the expectation of 10.0 thousand and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Against this background, the level rose slightly to 5.3% from 5.2%, which is a fairly strong sign of the market's intention to sell the AUD/USD pair at an accelerated pace.

The Immediate target of 0.6678 at the support line for the red price channel coincides with the low of August 7 that can be reached in three days. Then, the blue channel comes into play with support in the region of 0.6605. On the four-hour chart, the price is in free fall and there are no signs of a stop in the correction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Dramatic roles of the pound: a candidate for decline and a source of tension for the market

The UK currency is constantly under the scrutiny of market participants. The reason for this, analysts believe that it is the tense situation around Brexit, creating a danger for the pound itself as well as other currencies.

Many world currencies are involved in the orbit of the British pound. The currency of Great Britain in one way or another affects the means of payment of other countries, and currently this effect is negative. The pound's dynamics were significantly affected by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK on inflation.

According to the report, the base consumer price index fell to 1.5% in August, which is the lowest level since November 2016. According to analysts, the current situation indicates the need to reduce interest rates in the UK. Weak macroeconomic statistics indicate that in the coming months the regulator may reduce interest rates. This is negative news for the British pound, analysts emphasize. It can noticeably lose in price.

Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the consolidation range near the levels of 1.2453–1.2445. According to preliminary forecasts, in the event of a decrease in the current level, a further drop is possible to the level of 1.2400. With the implementation of a more optimistic scenario and the breakdown of the upper region of 1.2490, growth is likely to reach 1.2555. After that, the potential to decline to the 1.2400 level is growing, analysts summarize.

An alarming situation in European markets is provoked by uncertainty about Brexit. Currently, the European Parliament has approved, by a majority vote, a deferral for the UK if it so requests. However, this event has already been taken into account by the market, and the pound will not receive strong support from this news. In this situation, investors and traders will invest in more reliable assets, analysts are certain.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 23

Forecast for September 23:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1079, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of September 12, which requires a breakdown of the level of 1.0987. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1080. In this case, the first goal is 1.1114. The passage at the price of the noise range 1.1114 - 1.1135 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1188. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1227. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1080 Take profit: 1.1114
Buy 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1188
Sell: 1.1019 Take profit: 1.0990
Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0935

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascendant structure from September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom. We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620
Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736
Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340
Sell: 1.2336 Take profit: 1.2282

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9983, 0.9962, 0.9941, 0.9927, 0.9893, 0.9868, 0.9835, 0.9813 and 0.9783. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9893. In this case, the target is 0.9868. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9868 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9835, Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9835 - 0.9813. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9783. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback in correction. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9927 - 0.9941. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9962. This level is a key support for the descending structure of September 19.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of September 19.

Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9940
Buy : 0.9942 Take profit: 0.9960
Sell: 0.9893 Take profit: 0.9870
Sell: 0.9866 Take profit: 0.9835

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.21, 107.95, 107.77, 107.50, 107.25, 107.06 and 106.82. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.50. In this case, the target is 107.25. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 107.25 - 107.06. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.82. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 107.77 - 107.95. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.21. This level is the key support for the downward structure from September 19.

Main trend: descending structure of September 19.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 107.77 Take profit: 107.93
Buy : 107.97 Take profit: 108.20
Sell: 107.50 Take profit: 107.27
Sell: 107.23 Take profit: 107.08

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3260, 1.3235, 1.3198 and 1.3172. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 10. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3297. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement and consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3260 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3198. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will have the downward structure. In this case, the potential goal is 1.3172.

The main trend is the rising structure of September 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226
Buy : 1.3344 Take profit: 1.3378
Sell: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3237
Sell: 1.3233 Take profit: 1.3200

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6822, 0.6797, 0.6782, 0.6745, 0.6732, 0.6705 and 0.6683. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6745 - 0.6732. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6705. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6683. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6782 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6822. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6795
Buy: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6822
Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6734
Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6707

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.41, 119.02, 118.74, 118.28, 118.01, 117.73, 117.51 and 117.10. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 18. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 118.28 - 118.01. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 117.73. Price consolidation is in the range of 117.73 - 117.51 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 117.10. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.74 - 119.02. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.41. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 118.75 Take profit: 119.00
Buy: 119.04 Take profit: 119.40
Sell: 118.28 Take profit: 118.03
Sell: 118.00 Take profit: 117.74

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we are following the local ascendant structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3, the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10
Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20
Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42
Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Yen came with trump cards

The economic calendar of the last full week of September can hardly be called saturated, so investors will be focused on events of a geopolitical nature. The trade war, the conflict in the Middle East and Brexit are forcing investors to pay attention to safe haven assets, all the more so since the yen, which has become pretty cheaper in the first half of the month, is starting to look like a tidbit.

Over the past 3 weeks, USD/JPY quotes have grown by 4% amid closing short positions. De-escalation of the US-China trade conflict, lower Fed rates, revival of the European QE, a decrease in the probability of disorderly Brexit and strong macro statistics across the United States convinced investors that not everything was as bad as is commonly believed. Is it time to reduce the share of safe haven assets in portfolios? As a result, the yield on US treasury bonds began to grow, and the yen, franc and gold were in a black body. As subsequent events showed, not for long.

The attacks on Saudi Arabia, the statement by Donald Trump that he did not need a temporary deal with China on the eve of the presidential election, as well as the refusal of the Chinese delegation to visit American farmers, were seen as a signal of worsening global risk appetite and relations between Washington and Beijing. Riyadh claims that the terrorist attack was certainly funded by Tehran, and Donald Trump sends troops to the Allied camps in the Middle East and imposes sanctions against the Iranian central bank. How not to buy bonds and other safe havens in such conditions?

A deterioration in global risk appetite and a return to interest in the yen are making life difficult for the Bank of Japan. We watched the USD/JPY correction, realizing that devaluation would help accelerate inflation. Consumer prices in Japan slowed to 0.5% y/y in August, which is the worst trend since 2017.

The dynamics of Japanese inflation

Slowing inflation theoretically unties the hands of the central bank in easing monetary policy, but everything looks different in real life. Haruhiko Kuroda is confronted by the Fed's inability to weaken the US dollar even by lowering federal funds rates and EUR/USD growth in response to the revival of the ECB's quantitative easing program. It is obvious that a further drop in the overnight rate (-0.1%) in the red zone will only aggravate the problems of Japanese banks. In the current situation it is better to sit and see how events will develop. Perhaps negotiations between Washington and Beijing will result in a breakthrough and increase in global risk appetite ... On the contrary, the resumption of the rally in the oil market poses a threat to countries importing black gold and strengthens the demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, the bulls' inability to hold USD/JPY quotes above the upper limit of the downward trading channel is the first sign of their weakness. After reaching an intermediate target of 78.6% according to the Shark pattern, a logical pullback followed, which risks continuing in the direction of 106.9 and 106.25. The main task of the bears is to keep the pair below 107.5.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Gold does not like the president

The worst dynamics of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany over the past 10 years, the fastest decline in the consumer sentiment index in the US since the beginning of the year and rumors about the impeachment of Donald Trump - what could be better for safe haven assets?. The frank and the yen grew steadily, Treasury yields collapsed, and bulls on gold resumed attacks aimed at updating the 6-year high. The precious metal is preparing to close in the green zone for the fifth month in a row, and we must admit that it has reason for this.

When the leading economies of the world in the form of China, Germany and the US slow down, and central banks try to save the situation by easing monetary policy, the bulls on XAU/USD feel like a fish in water. Monetary expansion weakens major world currencies, and even the growth of the USD index does not scare fans of gold: it is not the dollar that is strong, its competitors are weak. Moreover, the Fed is cutting rates and, according to TD Securities forecasts, in order to eliminate the crisis in the money market, it will revive a program of quantitative easing in the amount of $515 billion in October. At the same time, political risks increased in the United States due to rumors about the impeachment of Donald Trump, which will contribute to the loss of steam by the US economy and global GDP. Is it any wonder that the treasury bond yields dropped sharply? The dynamics of gold and yield on US Treasury bonds

The fact that the bullish XAU/USD trend is stronger than ever is evidenced by an increase in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds to a 6-year high and an increase in Swiss precious metal exports to Britain to 112.5 tons, which is the highest value for the last 7 years . As a rule, when gold flows from the West (US, Britain) to the East (China, India), sellers dominate the market; when it changes its direction - buyers. Switzerland serves as a transit point and a kind of indicator of the activity of investors and jewelers. As for ETF reserves, they reached the level of 2494.3 tons and are ready to mark the best quarterly growth from April-June 2016.

Yes, the impeachment of the current head of the White House seems unlikely, but it undermines the political authority of Donald Trump and unties the hands of China. It is possible that China will continue to pull the cat by the tail, sincerely hoping that the main enemy could resign himself long before the presidential election of 2020. The October talks in Washington and Beijing may not be as productive as financial markets expect, which will lead to the development of a correction on US stock indices and will allow the bulls to develop an attack on XAU/USD.

Technically, the inability of the bears for gold to keep quotes below the trend line of the Burst stage of the "Bump and Run Reversal" pattern indicates their weakness. The precious metal quickly returned to the game and if the September high is updated, the AB=CD pattern will be activated. Its target of 161.8% corresponds to the mark of $1600 per ounce

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:
Testnet network Ethereum under the name Istanbul (which operates under the Ropsten testnet) was launched on September 30. Considering the existing problems related to the dates of the planned hard forks, this can be considered a great success. The whole was able to run even two days before the earlier announced date, which fell on October 2.

Unfortunately, after the activation of Ropsten an unplanned fork occurred. So now two chains are working.

The issue of the community centered around the Vitalik Buterin platform was explained by the community manager at the Ethereum Hudson Jameson Foundation. In his tweet from yesterday, he described what happened. Today, some miners are still mining the old version of Ropsten. Another copy of its new, updated version. The programmer, however, calms down. The problem is to be solved. Information should not worry investors: they are testnets, so that such errors come out during their duration.

Jameson also explains what exactly happened. The genesis of the problem is the nature of blockchains based on the proof-of-work algorithm, including Ethereum. The miners in them must independently update the software to be able to dig as part of a new chain. This time some of them did not and the result was an unplanned division.

Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $185.05, but so far couldn't make it to the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $187.37. The supply zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $176.66 has been clearly broken, the momentum is now increasing significantly, so there is a chance for the bulls to hit the level of 50% of even the 61% shortly if the trendline dynamic support around the level of $172.82 will provide the bounce. In the case of a trendline violation, the nearest technical support is located at the level of $163.98.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $256.80
WR2 - $233.68
WR1 - $197.61
Weekly Pivot - $174.45
WS1 - $137.03
WS2 - $112.52
WS3 - $77.73

Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading Idea for NZD/CAD

As you know, cross-rates are an excellent tool for hedging positions in "majors", such as the most popular of them - the EUR/USD pair.

I recommend for each position in major - to have a position in the "right" cross, and you will appreciate this tactic of distributing profits between instruments.

Let's pay attention to the very oversold NZD/CAD cross-instrument, which has passed 10,000 p for 5 figures almost without a pullback since March 2019. However, several people know that this cross has an average rollback passage of exactly 10 points. And right now, after updating the minimum of 2015, it makes sense to buy it with a potential of at least 3,000 p at 5 figures.

It is easier to do this by collecting a grid of orders in longs on pullback movements. In fact, you will work out a false breakdown on an annual scale, or rather - for 4 years. This does not happen every day. Therefore, it is necessary to take advantage of this unique opportunity.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 4 - 2019

GBP/JPY is now hovering just above the ideal corrective target at 130.78. We continue to look for a final dip closer to this target as long as minor resistance at 132.55 and more importantly as long as resistance at 133.36 is able to cap the upside. However, a break above resistance at 133.36 will indicate that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii towards 139.15 is developing.

R3: 133.36
R2: 132.85
R1: 132.55
Pivot: 132.00
S1: 131.47
S2: 131.25
S3: 130.78

Trading recommendation:
We will buy GBP at 131.25 or upon a break above 132.55

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones GBP/USD 10/07/19

The pair is trading between two significant zones. The resistance was Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2388-1.2372, and the weekly CZ 1.2246-1.2213 became the support. To continue medium-term growth, closing of trading above the level of 1.2388 on Monday will be required. This will pave the way for the September maximum. This model has a 50% chance of working out.

The continuation of the medium-term growth may become the main model for the coming week, as many pairs associated with the dollar formed a reversal pattern in the direction of strengthening.

An alternative model will be developed if the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 test leads to an increase in supply and a halt to growth. This will indicate the formation of a local accumulation zone, where the main goals will be the extremes of last week.


Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zonethat reflects the average volatility over the past year.


News are provided by InstaForex

Fractal analysis of Bitcoin on October 8

Forecast for October 8:
Analytical review of cryptocurrency on a scale of H1:

For the Bitcoin instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 9026.00, 8811.75, 8666.36, 8379.42, 8287.60, 8039.21, 7893.53 and 7698.41. Attention! This instrument is characterized by medium-term trend trading. Here, as expected, the price formed a local structure for the top of October 7. In addition, this instrument has a good correlation with the euro / yen.

The range for entering the market for the purchase is 7948.00 - 8380.00. We expect the development of the upward cycle after the price passes the noise range 8287.60 - 8379.42. In this case, the first goal is 8666.36. Meanwhile, price consolidation is in the range of 8666.36 - 8811.75, as well as a possible rollback to correction. The potential value for the top, where it makes sense to close the position - 9026.00. The range 8039.21 - 7893.53 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the cancellation of this structure. In this case, the first goal is 7698.41. However, to trade in a downward direction, it makes sense when the local initial conditions for a downward cycle are formed.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of October 7.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 7948.00 - 8380.00 Stop Loss: 7891.00 Take profit: 8666.36
To continue :
Stop Loss: 8287.60 Take profit: 9026.00

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for AUD/USD on October 9, 2019

AUD/USD
the opening of the week, the Australian dollar has developed on the scale of a four-hour chart. All days, until this morning, the price was reflected from the support of the MACD line of a four-hour scale. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the growth zone.

Now the aussie is ready to close the gap formed at the beginning of the week. The purpose of growth is the line of the price channel of the daily scale near the MACD line at around 0.6790. We the fall to resume from the target level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Gold breaks into battle

Gold quickly returned above the psychologically important level of $1,500 per ounce due to weak statistics on US business activity. The United States feel the pain of trade wars and may well pull the rest of the world into the abyss, as has happened in the past more than once. At the same time, neither the US labor market report nor Jerome Powell's statement about the launch of the asset-purchase program made an impression on the precious metal. Obviously, investors are waiting for something. It is easy to guess that this is news from the negotiating table of Washington and Beijing.

Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve chairman made it clear that the upcoming program for the purchase of short-term securities is not QE, its start can be considered a positive factor for the bulls on XAU/USD. Increasing the activity of a large buyer is a good argument in favor of rising prices and falling profitability. Non-interest-bearing gold is not able to compete with bonds if rates on them rise. If they, on the contrary, decline, the precious metal begins to enjoy increased popularity. This is confirmed by the high demand for products of ETF funds. Their stocks have been increasing for 17 consecutive days, which is the longest winning streak since 2009. The total size of the indicator is only 35 tons below the record high that took place in 2012.

Gold ETF Stock Dynamics

The strong growth in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds and the stability of gold against a strong dollar allow Citigroup to adhere to its bullish forecast for XAU/USD. The company believes that the precious metal will grow to $1,700 per ounce within 6-12 months. But on the side of its fans plays and increased activity of central banks! Thus, the People's Bank of China has been building up gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. During this period, it acquired 99.8 tons. As a result, stocks rose to 62.64 million ounces. According to the World Gold Council, 14 regulators from various countries continue to diversify their reserves in favor of precious metals in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. In 2018, central banks from around the world bought $27 billion worth of gold, a record high.

The dynamics of gold reserves in China

While central banks and ETF fans are buying gold, speculators prefer to exit. In the week of October 1, their net longs fell to their lowest level since late July. It's not necessary to be frightened by it. Financial managers quite logically take profits on the eve of an important event - trade negotiations between the US and China. Most likely, their impact on financial markets will be much greater than the publication of the minutes of the September meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Technically, the "Splash and Shelf" pattern takes place on the daily gold chart. Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the consolidation range of $1490-1520 will launch another correctional wave in the direction of $1440-1445 per ounce. In contrast, a successful assault on the resistance at $1520 will strengthen the risks of restoring the "bullish" trend and continuing the rally in the direction of the target at 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP/USD continues to grow, despite weak data from the UK

The continued sale of the dollar helped maintain the positive dynamics of the pound, but otherwise the prospects for the British currency are not very good. The UK economy fell by 0.1% in August against the expected stable value. Indicators of manufacturing and industrial production also fell short of forecasts. While the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward trend, although it has slightly deviated from recent highs in response to weak economic data. Demonstrating the miracles of resilience in the 1.2200 mark for the third consecutive session, the pair was able to restore positive movement, however, only amid continued active sales of the dollar.

In principle, weaker than expected macroeconomic data in the UK could not have a significant impact. Nevertheless, the positive impulse did not receive a new charge, while the pair confidently holds the blow and tries to gain a foothold at a new height, despite the fact that the UK monthly GDP report showed that the economy unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August. In addition to this, UK manufacturing and manufacturing declined more than expected in August, although this drop was partially offset by a lower-than-expected trade deficit. Now it will be interesting to see if the pair can benefit from the positive movement or fail again at higher levels amid continuing uncertainty surrounding Britain's exit from the European Union.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The EU summit, Brexit, inflation in the European Union

It is safe to say that we can call the new week, the"Week of Great Britain." Most of the macroeconomic reports planned for the week will concern the GBP/USD pair. Most of the reports regarding the GBP/USD pair will come from the UK. In addition to economic data, it will be decided whether a new Brexit date will be postponed, whether Boris Johnson and the European government will be able to agree on a "deal" and whether the British Parliament will block a new deal if, by some miracle, Brussels and London succeed to reach consensus on all contentious issues in five days? Thus, the EUR/USD pair may feel relatively calm, just as it did the previous week, but the British pound is likely to break volatility records and very often change its direction if the news comes mixed. But consider all the data in more detail.

As we said, most statistics come from the UK. On Tuesday, this will be data on unemployment and changes in average wages for August, on Wednesday - the consumer price index for September, on Thursday - retail sales and the European Union summit on Brexit starts. In addition, the United States will receive information on retail sales for September (Wednesday). However, despite the importance of future reports, we believe that the main attention of traders will be focused on Brexit, on the EU summit and on any information from Boris Johnson, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron. It is these leaders who most often speak out about the promotion of the Brexit negotiation process and have the greatest influence on it. Regarding the chances of fulfilling one or another Brexit option, we recommend that traders not try to guess the future. Brexit has repeatedly shown to all market participants that trying to predict how everything will end is an ungrateful affair. The growth of the pound was often associated with rumors and unfounded market expectations, which each time gave way to a stronger fall in the British currency. That is why the movement of the pound/dollar pair this week may well be illogical and consistent with the nature of the incoming news, and all macroeconomic reports can be completely ignored. Thus, the main principle will be the "principle of caution" when trading GBP/USD in the new week.

As for the EUR/USD pair, here from macroeconomic events we can note the report on the change in industrial production in August on Monday, the inflation report for September on Wednesday. The greatest interest, of course, will be caused by the consumer price index, which in recent months has fallen to absolute lows. A value below 1.0% will no longer be considered just low, but critical. And then it can be expected from the ECB and a new reduction in key rates, the quantitative stimulus program in the first months of its operation is unlikely to be changed, but in the future it can be expanded. And for the euro, these are all potential bearish factors. We still believe that in the confrontation with the dollar, a single European trump card is very small. And at the moment, we consider the main factor behind the growth of the euro a banal technical need to be adjusted from time to time. There is no positive news from the EU. Recently, everything is not good in the United States too, but America's economy is still stronger, macroeconomic indicators are higher, monetary policy is tougher. It is these factors that continue to play for the dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

i am only trading on aud/usd because this particular pairs have a trend market.
trend market as two direction, failure test and breakout.
looking at this week market, the market is trading failure test since last week. i take of .29 cent off the table this morning.
i still trade the same failure test this week. hope for profit be4 the ending of this week. u will see my chart below.
tomorrow i will talk about area of value. good day

if you want to more about forex market email at prophateobinna@gmail.com

USD/CAD - Heading downwards

Greetings, dear traders. This time, I will show you a long-term recommendation on an instrument such as USD / CAD.

What is interesting in this instrument now? First of all, the data on unemployment from Canada came out last Friday. Typically, these reports come out simultaneously with American Non-farm (NFP), but this time, the publication was separate. With this impulse, the Canadian dollar strengthened strongly against the US dollar, completely absorbing the abnormal growth a week earlier. At the moment, this indicates a very strong seller in the market.

Since the plan is long-term, its implementation can take from several days to several weeks. Thus, it makes sense to wait for a rollback and consider selling on smaller TFs.

It's important to understand that a lot of data will be released on Wednesday, such as the base index of retail sales for the American dollar and inflation for the Canadian one. Moreover, regular oil reserves will also affect the Canadian dollar. What is more reasonable here would be to expect the continuation of decline precisely after the release of all these news on Wednesday.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/USD - through thorns to the stars!

Greetings, dear traders. It is time to remember about EUR/USD, which has successfully fulfilled our previous plans. Following GBP/USD, the European currency is now demonstrating a strong bullish direction. It's easy to guess that all these movements are connected with the next portion of news regarding Brexit. If you omit all the fundamental details and focus on how to make money from it, the answer is simple. To take a neat positions in the purchases with a pullback. At the same time, wherever you try to buy, the extreme point of the scenario cancellation is today's minimum at the quote of 1.0991. Therefore, you can limit losses to this level. It is recommended to holding purchases (at least partially) at the level of 1.1064, since this is an important level for sellers over the past few days.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBPUSD: The evening promised to be hot. Michel Barnier was optimistic about the agreement on Brexit, but the main move for the Unionist party. The risk of extending the UK's exit

The British pound continues to storm, and after the morning "stuffing" that the deal could be disrupted due to a number of disagreements, the pound resumed its growth on statements from representatives of the EU and the UK. As it became known, according to representatives of the parties, negotiations between the UK and the EU are coming to an end, but the key problems have not yet been resolved. On Wednesday afternoon, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier is due to meet with diplomatic representatives of the bloc countries. However, the meeting has been postponed to a later time.

This was done so that the British prime minister could manage to negotiate an agreement with the Democratic Union Party, since it is precisely its leaders who are still threatening to disrupt Downing Street's plans. Let me remind you that the deal will include the establishment of a regulatory and customs border for the Irish Sea.

Barnier's meeting with European leaders will give an assessment and recommendations on whether to sign an agreement at the EU summit scheduled for late this week or not. European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos has already stated that significant unresolved issues remain in the negotiations on Brexit, noting that Barnier has already submitted his report to the European Commission. In it, the chief negotiator described the negotiations as constructive. Barnier was also optimistic that a deal with Brexit could be reached before the end of this week, but, according to some sources, the report also contains information on the need to extend the UK term for EU membership, which is scheduled for October 31. An extension is necessary even if a deal is reached.

The market completely ignored the data that the inflation rate in the UK remained stable in September this year. Most of the growth was maintained due to higher prices for hotel services and furniture. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI increased by 1.7% in September compared with the same period last year. In August of this year, the UK CPI was also 1.7%. Let me remind you that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.

Slowing inflation will help the regulator resort to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which is seriously affected by the situation with Brexit and trade conflicts.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, only a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.2840 can lead to the continuation of the upward rally to the area of highs at 1.2920 and 1.2980. In case the pound declines on the evening news, which I mentioned above. Support will be provided by levels 1.2680 and 1.2560.

EURUSD

Eurozone data today did not cause major changes in the EURUSD pair. According to a Eurostat statistics agency report, annual inflation in the eurozone slowed again, which is bad news for the European Central Bank, which in September announced the start of a new phase of stimulating the economy. Thus, the CPI Eurozone CPI in September rose by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the positive balance of foreign trade in the eurozone increased and amounted to 14.7 billion euros in August 2019 against 11.9 billion euros in August 2018. However, trade conflicts, for which there are no solutions, continue to negatively affect the indicator.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Bulls will continue to fight for the resistance of 1.1060, consolidation above which can provide risky assets to new buyers. If pressure on the euro returns, and this can happen after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance at 1.1060, then you can still return to long positions from support in the area of 1.1020, but larger long positions are best postponed until the low of 1.0990 is updated.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Pound rushes to the clouds

Despite the almost bare economic calendar, all the attention of investors on forex is focused on the British pound. According to Mark Carney, Great Britain marked the beginning of global uncertainty in 2016, which slowed business activity and GDP in most countries of the world. It can put an end to this by voting for a draft dissolution agreement with the EU. Boris Johnson also called for support of the document, arguing that any delay would harm the interests of the United Kingdom, its EU partners and relations between them. However, the British Parliament may have a different opinion.

The sterling has not responded to macro statistics for a long time and is calling for political news. In this regard, an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9% and disappointing inflation statistics (fact +1.7%, forecast + 1.8% YOY) remained almost unnoticed by investors. All their attention has shifted to Brexit. The prime minister of Great Britain managed to find a common language with the EU. Now he needs 320 votes in Parliament to enter, and not get into the story. In fact, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers needs to lure 61 opponents to his side, which does not seem unrealistic.

According to Goldman Sachs, the chance of a disorderly Brexit dropped to 5%. This circumstance makes the correction potential of GBP/USD limited. MUFG expects the pound to find haven in the range of $1.3-1.35 if lawmakers approve the deal. UBS Global Wealth Management also talks about the $1.35 level. TD-Bank believes that the pair is able to rewrite the May high near 1.3185, however, the contract rejected by the Parliament will trigger a wave of correction to 1.264-1.266. Robobank sees an even deeper low at around 1.22.

Pound Forecasts

The fact that the bulls continue to dominate the market was shown by the sterling reaction to the decision of MPs to vote for the proposal to postpone the approval of the deal. As a result, Boris Johnson, in order to obey the law, was forced to write a letter to the EU asking that they prolong the transition period. The prime minister did not sign this document and sent another to Donald Tusk, in which he expressed confidence that Britain would leave the EU on October 31. The opposition party believes that the head of the Cabinet of Ministers behaves childishly and threatens him with court in the event of a disorderly Brexit.

In my opinion, everything goes to the point that the deal will be approved by the British Parliament on the falling flag. The bulls on GBP/USD believe this, pushing the pair to the psychologically important mark of 1.3. The fact that they managed to gain a foothold above 1.29 indicates the seriousness of the intentions of sterling buyers.

Technically, after a clear combination of patterns "Shark" and 5-0, the upward trend of the analyzed pair is directed to the target of 261.8% on the AB = CD model. It is located near 1.309. A necessary condition for maintaining control over the pound by the bulls and continuing the rally is to consolidate GBP/USD quotes above the Pivot level of 1.29.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBPUSD and Brexit: Brexit deal may be approved, but its opponents have one more trump card

The pound slightly fell in the morning after reports that the UK government may withdraw its Brexit bill. If the British Parliament votes against the deal today, official London may withdraw the bill he proposed. This will jeopardize the work of Parliament, which will lead to the next election, which may take place before Christmas. Such a situation

In the meantime, discussion of the bill itself has begun, and the debate may last until late at night, which will periodically exert pressure or support to the British pound. However, many lawmakers would prefer to have more time to study the conditions proposed by Johnson, which has been repeatedly stated. But here we are already talking about moving the Brexit date from October 31 to 2020, which clearly does not suit Boris Johnson.

Even if the prime minister succeeds this week in approving the deal in Parliament, and this happens only if the date of the deal on UK withdrawal from the EU is extended, in the future this scenario will allow amendments to the bill that could completely bury the deal.

Johnson now has a much better chance of making a deal than ever, since on the weekend he secured some support from the Laborites and opponents of Brexit in his Tory party. Just a few votes can allow Johnson to win. However, as I noted above, under the scenario, if Johnson's deal is not ratified, Britain will have general elections and even a referendum on the exit and the EU.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the pound only slightly fell against the US dollar, and this did not lead to significant changes. If the deal is approved, it is unlikely that the pound will break above resistance at 1.3040, which will lead to further growth of the trading instrument in the area of highs 1.3170 and 1.3260. If lawmakers are able to resist the government, then the pressure on the pound will increase, and the decline in GBPUSD under the support of 1.2840 will increase the pressure on the pair even more, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a fall to larger lows of 1.2840 and 1.2670.

EURUSD

In the meantime, traders are closely following the news from the British Parliament, the euro is gradually falling against the US dollar.

This is due to expectations that the European Central Bank may resort to an even greater easing of monetary policy. The European Central Bank will hold its last meeting with Mario Draghi as the head this Thursday. It is expected that Draghi will "slam the door" and go for another reduction in deposit rates, or at least make direct allusions to such measures that can be implemented in December. In the case of this approach, it is not entirely correct to expect purchases of risky assets after a decision on Brexit.

From a technical point of view, further upward movement will occur only after the successful Brexit, otherwise the bears have already coped with the priority task and returned the pair to the support level of 1.1130, which gradually increases the pressure on buyers. Negative news will force them to close their long positions, pulling down the euro to the lows of 1.1090 and 1.1050.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Japan Leading, Coincident Index Data Due On Thursday

Japan will on Thursday see final August numbers for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a score of 91.7 for the leading index and 99.3 for the coincident.

Japan also will see preliminary October figures for the manufacturing PMI from Nikkei and the services and composite indexes from Jibun.

In September, the manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.9, while the services index was at 51.5 and the composite came in at 52.8.

Hong Kong will release September data for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth HKD380.78 billion and exports were at HKD352.73 billion for a trade deficit of HKD28.05 billion.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.


News are provided by InstaForex

USD / CAD: Sellers in business

Good evening, dear traders. Today, there is a small recommendation on USD / CAD, and the decline of which is now very likely.

The thing is that yesterday's news from Canada caused a great reaction from the market, and in the end, we see that all the news impulses from the buyer were completely absorbed, and this is a harbinger of even a local, but decline.

Therefore, today, I recommend trying to work on the decline of USD / CAD currency pair with a take profit at around 1.3070. Moreover, the maximum point of yesterday's loss will be considered to be the maximum of yesterday's news - the level of 1.3121. If the price updates the maximum, the scenario can be considered completely canceled.

I wish you success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast of EURUSD ahead of ECB and Fed meetings

Key central banks will hold their meetings on Thursday, October 24, and Wednesday, 29 and 30, which will determine the dynamics of financial markets for at least the next one and a half to two months, and maybe in the longer term. Given these important events, from the point of view of trading in the foreign exchange market, we need to make assumptions cleared of information noise, and then look at how our assumptions worked out in reality. In other words, we need to create an algorithm of actions and make changes to it in accordance with newly emerging circumstances.

However, why did I need to mark up a roadmap before and not after the event has already happened? There are a number of reasons for this, and first of all, my deep conviction that in the current situation, meetings of central banks will only confirm decisions already made earlier. Surprises are possible only from the Fed, but this seems unlikely. Therefore, while there are still some doubts regarding the actions of the Open Market Committee, I personally have no doubts about the actions of the European Central Bank.

First of all, traders should know that, according to the regulations, the ECB never comments on or regulates the euro or, at least, declares it in words. However, one must be very naive to assume the detachment of the regulator in the fate of the exchange rate of the currency accountable to him. In words, the Fed and the ECB pursue an independent monetary policy, but the ability to create surplus value from the issue of money helps maintain the high standards of life for the "golden billion".

Therefore, it's impossible for me to imagine that the change in exchange rates has been let off by gravity of key central banks. Well, if Russia holds consultations with OPEC countries to limit oil production and thus regulates the price, then the countries that are members of the North Atlantic alliance have been doing this for a long time and quite successfully, but with regard to money. Having in its hands a tool that controls 90 percent of the world's money circulation, it is a sin not to use this tool.

So, what do we currently know about the policy of central banks? The European Central Bank maintains a refinancing rate of 0% and re-launched a large-scale asset purchase program worth €20 billion per month, and did so simultaneously with new long-term refinancing programs, which should not only increase the availability of liquidity in the European market, but also stimulate the development of the European economics. According to many experts, this should serve to weaken the euro, but did it?

Having been hit by a liquidity crisis in the repurchase market that erupted in September, the Fed, under the formal pretext of increasing reserves of commercial banks, was forced to adopt an urgent program for the purchase of short-term bills of the US government totaling $65 billion per month. This at least equalizes the chances of the dollar in the competition of printing presses, if it does not increase its advantage. However, the truth is that the quantitative easing policy does not affect the exchange rate, at least to the extent that we would like to. You can see the evidence on the chart (Fig. 1), which shows the dynamics of the trade-weighted US dollar index calculated by the Fed based on the results of trade with leading world currencies.

Figure 1: Relationship between US Fed assets and the trade-weighted dollar index. Source - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Indeed, there are periods on the chart when the dollar depreciated with an increase in the Fed balance, but there are periods when everything happened exactly the opposite. A similar picture can be obtained by comparing the euro and the change in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. The connection between the exchange rate and the balance sheet of the central bank may exist, but it is certainly not so primitive that we could calculate it using simple methods.

When assessing the prospects for exchange rates, one should rather be guided by dynamic changes in the interest rate differential in the EURUSD rate, an assessment of the yield of treasury instruments with the same maturity, inflation potential, growth prospects for prices of major commodity assets, positioning of leading traders in the futures market, and seasonal factors. You and I can try to evaluate something, but most of the factors will remain unknown to us. At the same time, trading in exchange rates is doing so in probability, and the more facts we can evaluate, the higher the probability of success for the transactions we make. The main thing in these factors then is not to get confused.

If we talk about the dynamic prospects of rates, then the advantage here is on the side of the euro. The ECB is in no hurry to make a refinancing rate below zero, and Mario Draghi, as a downed pilot, is rather concerned about how he can eject a golden parachute. He did everything he could, which at least presupposes a period of some stability in the policy of the regulator.

In turn, since July of this year, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by half a percent, from 2.25 to 1.75, meaning the lower limit of the range established by the Open Markets Committee. Today, 94% of traders believe that the Fed will go for another rate cut in 6 days, dropping it to the level of 1.50-1.75 percent. A decrease in differential by 0.75% over three months is a serious decrease in the possibility of earning by arbitrage operations. Therefore, it is not surprising that from the beginning of August, that is, from the moment the Fed rate was lowered, institutional investors gradually refused to place investments in US dollars.

During this time, the long positions of institutional management funds (Asset Manager) lost about a tenth, while euro sales by this category of traders in the futures market, on the contrary, increased. At the same time, asset managers have been the main buyers of the euro in the futures market since 2016, which was due to their hedging a short position in the cash market that accompanies transactions in investments in higher-yield dollar instruments.

Actually, the question now is not whether there will be a reversal of the downward trend in euros, but when it will happen. Last week ended with serious technical signs of breaking the fundamental trend on the EURUSD course. However, the reversal is not yet over, and its formation may last another one or two months, which is fraught for us with problems associated with the formation of a new direction, and the meetings of central banks that we will see in the near future may accelerate or may slow down the formation of the reversal. However, the probability of a EURUSD rate reversal is becoming more and more every day, take this into account when opening your positions.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of October 30
Forecast for October 30:
Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1083 - 1.1068. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the potential target is 1.1173.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137
Buy: 1.1142 Take profit: 1.1170
Sell: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1070
Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050
For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031
Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140
Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717
Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627


For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 18, the correction stage. Trading recommendations:
Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974
Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.39, 109.29, 109.13, 108.85, 108.72 and 108.53. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 23. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.13. In this case, the target is 109.29. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.85 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.53. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.29
Buy : 109.40 Take profit: 109.56
Sell: 108.85 Take profit: 108.74
Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.55

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. At the moment, the price forms a small potential of October 29 for the movement in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126
Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160
Sell: Take profit:
Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6928, 0.6910, 0.6897, 0.6874, 0.6847, 0.6831 and 0.6810. Here, the price registered the local upward structure of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6874. In this case, the target is 0.6897. Price consolidation is in in the range of 0.6897 - 0.6910. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6928. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6847 - 0.6831. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6810.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 28.
Trading recommendations:
Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6896
Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6928
Sell : 0.6846 Take profit : 0.6831
Sell: 0.6828 Take profit: 0.6810

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the rising structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21. Trading recommendations:
Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34
Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76
Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94
Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, price has entered an equilibrium state. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top. The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80
Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75
Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Is the Canadian dollar a child of fortune? The loonie has a second wind

The Canadian dollar has been on the rise since the beginning of the week. However, experts suggest that the flight of the loonie can be interrupted by changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as a deterioration in economic data. In this situation, the market favors the loonie, analysts emphasize.

The loonie was in the spotlight on Wednesday, October 30. The market is monitoring the further actions of the Bank of Canada, which is ready to hold a meeting on monetary policy. If the regulator keeps the rate at 1.75%, while the Fed reduces it to 1.50% –1.75%, then the Canadian dollar will push its American counterpart. The loonie claims to be the leader, striving to become the most profitable currency in the "Big Ten."

According to analysts, the rise of the Canadian dollar is possible not only in case of maintaining the same rates, but also amid optimistic comments of the regulator regarding the growth of the national economy. At the last meeting, the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged. The regulator focused on strengthening the labor market, increasing wages and the positive state of the economy.

Analysts believe that current data on the Canadian economy will not be so rosy. The regulator should take into account a number of negative factors, such as a slowdown in retail sales, a drop in the consumer price index, a decrease in GDP growth and inflation risks. At the moment, the labor market in Canada remains strong, wage growth is quite stable, however, the weakness of the national economy along with the worsening situation in the United States may lead to a change in Bank of Canada's strategy. In such a situation, the regulator will review the current decision on rates. If this happens, a stable short-term low will form in the USD/CAD pair, analysts said.

The positive against the Canadian dollar is radiating from the options market. According to experts, the three-month risk reversal with a delta of 25% demonstrates the most favorable period for the growth of the loonie to the US dollar. This has not happened since 2009, experts emphasize. Reducing the risk-reversal in the USD/CAD pair for three-month option contracts is a barometer of long-term investor sentiment. Analysts record a bullish trend for the Canadian dollar, noting that over the past 10 years, investors have never been so optimistic about the loonie.

A similar change of mood occurred shortly before the decisions of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy and the Federal Reserve at the key rate. Currently, the loonie has been supported by both a profitable interest rate differential and increased expectations for a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada in November.

On Tuesday, October 29, the USD/CAD pair peaked in the past four weeks. On Wednesday morning, the pair fell by 0.08% to 1.3078-1.3880.


Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair showed an increase of 0.3% to a high since the beginning of October. The pair hit the 1.3098 bar, but is now pulling back to its lows. Yesterday's growth of the pair from an intraday low was caused by an increase in sales, Scotiabank analysts believe. Experts are certain that the pair is normal. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading in the range of 1.3077–1.3078, showing an upward trend.

Analysts agree that the current situation is quite favorable for the loonie. Most of them note excellent prospects for it. The Canadian dollar, which seemed to have opened its second wind, is capable of another leap forward, experts said. They expect a moderate, long rise of the loonie in the short and medium term.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones EURUSD 11/04/19

At the end of last week, the defining resistance was the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1161-1.1153. At the same time, the closing of trading on Friday occurred above this zone. This opens up opportunities for further growth of the pair to weekly control zone 1.1249-1.1233. The euro purchases come to the fore, however, favorable prices are located just below the level of 1.1134.

At the moment, the pair is trading near the maximum of the last month, which increases the possibility of the proposal and the continuation of the formation of the accumulation zone. Work within the accumulation zone will be relevant until the closure of one of the active sessions occurs above the weekly maximum. If this happens, then the growth rate will increase and a weekly test will take one to two days. In the event of a major offer after updating the monthly maximum, the target will be the level of 1.1134, where a new priority will be determined.


Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex