Tanzania
Zanzibar

Tayser:


Believe is a strong word.

Look at their 2013 polls. I swear it was pure comedy! Early 2013 they had Uhunye/Rao at 39% to 51%! I specifically rmbr Ambitho had Muranga giving RAO a whole 30 % not 20 or even 13 % but 30 ; I can't find the breakdown right now! If that's not BET Kings of Comedy special scriptwriting I don't know what is.

[url][https://www.wikiwand.com/en/2013_Kenyan_general_electionurl]

Tanzania
azao,pemba

kikuyu1:


Look at their 2013 polls. I swear it was pure comedy! Early 2013 they had Uhunye/Rao at 39% to 51%! I specifically rmbr Ambitho had Muranga giving RAO a whole 30 % not 20 or even 13 % but 30 ; I can't find the breakdown right now! If that's not BET Kings of Comedy special scriptwriting I don't know what is.

[url][https://www.wikiwand.com/en/2013_Kenyan_general_electionurl]

No doubt.

Tayser:


I gave you the answer. You need food to run any race. If Tanzanians are so full why can't they run?

Am talking about a marathon not a Sprint of 100 metres.
In a marathon,you need to have empty belly to be successful that's why u guys with your food shortages u do well in that category.The day u graduate from starvations,then no medal will u win.
Anyway,I salute u guys for using those empty bellies to win something,you have been famous worldwide flying your flag

Kazikazi:
Am talking about a marathon not a Sprint of 100 metres.
In a marathon,you need to have empty belly to be successful that's why u guys with your food shortages u do well in that category.The day u graduate from starvations,then no medal will u win.
Anyway,I salute u guys for using those empty bellies to win something,you have been famous worldwide flying your flag

But we won 100 m and relay, sports that supposedly require a full belly, as full as a Tanzanians belly. So why can't the lazy Tanzanians win any sport that requires a full belly?

There is no runoff scenario unless Wajackoyah gains momentum. This already a run-off as the line up is very clear binary choice.

Kenya politics is tribal - Martha can only cause an impact in Mt Kenya - and if she fails to get traction there - then Azimio will have wasted DPORK...because Ukambani might not vote enthusiastically like it would.

Is she getting traction in Mt kenya - it appears her momentum didnt last a week - and it's fizzled out.
Her rallies this week in Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri were pure disaster as folks kept off.


Anyway we have one and half month to go.

Put you numbers. After 9th August. We will meet here.

Tayser:



Alright bro, we'll see. In my view it all hinges on Martha's effect. If the undecided voters go her way the Azimio camp will easily garner 60 %. If not then there will be a runoff. I just cant see how Ruto will win, honestly. Lets wait and see.

Finally the first consignement of Tanzania's avos arrived in netherllands

Kazikazi:
loomalasin,Tanzania

You must quit killing Maasais to give their land to Arabs. Otherwise they will move to North to Kenya and launch something massive.

Did you finish evicting Maasai from their ancestral so you can sell the land for hunting by a few Arabs - your dependable colonizers since 10th century.

Kazikazi:
loomalasin,Tanzania

Tayser:


But we won 100 m and relay, sports that supposedly require a full belly, as full as a Tanzanians belly. So why can't the lazy Tanzanians win any sport that requires a full belly?

You think growing food is easy? How can a lazy man feed you?

I told u,with empty bellies,marathon becomes your natural choice

gallivant:
I used to like Raila Odinga, in opposition fighting for the rights of Kenyans and keeping the government in check. Now he is in bed with the deep state, I am terrified of the consequences. I will vote Ruto for fear of the alternative and a real change of the ruling class.

My goodness! Rmbr the aflatoxin maize story in '09? Kenya Bureau of Standards found a consignment of SA maize infected with aflatoxin. RAO had the MD Kioko wa Mangeli sacked and imported it anyway.

Mang’eli’s tiff with Odinga was centred on the importation of some 6,350 metric tonnes of maize from South Africa in 2009.

Raila blamed KeBS for declaring the consignment unfit for human consumption.

[url]https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/42499-day-top-govt-boss-was-sacked-fighting-raila/url]

Since then cancers have spiked.

While seemingly harmless, consumption of maize can be dangerous in this part of the world. Kenya is one of the world’s hotspots for aflatoxins. Poisonous levels of aflatoxins have reportedly killed at least 157 people in Kenya and the overconsumption of maize is also contributing to the country’s growing burden of cancer.

https://www.devex.com/news/kenyans-love-maize-but-aflatoxins-are-making-it-dangerous-96279

Tbh, it's difficult to quantify his exact measure of responsibility but he can't escape it as he bulldozed the decision to knowingly import infected maize.

rvp2018:
There is no runoff scenario unless Wajackoyah gains momentum. This already a run-off as the line up is very clear binary choice.

Kenya politics is tribal - Martha can only cause an impact in Mt Kenya - and if she fails to get traction there - then Azimio will have wasted DPORK...because Ukambani might not vote enthusiastically like it would.

Is she getting traction in Mt kenya - it appears her momentum didnt last a week - and it's fizzled out.
Her rallies this week in Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri were pure disaster as folks kept off.


Anyway we have one and half month to go.

Put you numbers. After 9th August. We will meet here.

I think the Roots fella is doing a social experiment? Hard to understand what he's doing. Typically I don't get too deep into these things but I can give an estimate of 51-57 for Azimio and 42-49 for KK, barring a massive change in the political landscape. 55 days is a very long time in politics anything can happen. We live in the same environments but perceive reality differently.

Kazikazi:
You think growing food is easy? How can a lazy man feed you?

I told u,with empty bellies,marathon becomes your natural choice

So why can't full belly Tanzanians run or play any sport?

Tayser:


You must quit killing Maasais to give their land to Arabs. Otherwise they will move to North to Kenya and launch something massive.

you dont know TZ. By law,u cant refuse to move out of the land if the gov wants to use the land for public projects or any development projects.Those masais who tried to go against gov are from kenya.Even on SGR,many folks have been moved from their land to make a space for the longest electrified speedy SGR in Africa.

Even all other protected areas like the one I showed u above,people were moved from those areas.

Tayser:


I think the Roots fella is doing a social experiment? Hard to understand what he's doing. Typically I don't get too deep into these things but I can give an estimate of 51-57 for Azimio and 42-49 for KK, barring a massive change in the political landscape. 55 days is a very long time in politics anything can happen. We live in the same environments but perceive reality differently.

My own analysis broadly tallies with rvp's. Where are your figures from?

rvp2018:
Did you finish evicting Maasai from their ancestral so you can sell the land for hunting by a few Arabs - your dependable colonizers since 10th century.

About 35% of TZ land is a protected areas set aside for conservation.
Thanks to millions of fellows who gave away their ancestral lands for the sake of conservations.

Tayser:


I think the Roots fella is doing a social experiment? Hard to understand what he's doing. Typically I don't get too deep into these things but I can give an estimate of 51-57 for Azimio and 42-49 for KK, barring a massive change in the political landscape. 55 days is a very long time in politics anything can happen. We live in the same environments but perceive reality differently.

Well noted..45 for Ruto versus 55 for Raila with 3 percent error rate..Let's see on night of the 9th.It should be easy to call once results stream in.

Kazikazi:
About 35% of TZ land is a protected areas set aside for conservation.
Thanks to millions of fellows who gave away their ancestral lands for the sake of conservations.

Why do you need more land in this century.

Kazikazi:
you dont know TZ. By law,u cant refuse to move out of the land if the gov wants to use the land for public projects or any development projects.Those masais who tried to go against gov are from kenya.Even on SGR,many folks have been moved from their land to make a space for the longest electrified speedy SGR in Africa.

Even all other protected areas like the one I showed u above,people were moved from those areas.

One reason you can't develop..such weak property rights make people afraid to invest

kikuyu1:


My own analysis broadly tallies with rvp's. Where are your figures from?

Where are yours from?

Kazikazi:
you dont know TZ. By law,u cant refuse to move out of the land if the gov wants to use the land for public projects or any development projects.Those masais who tried to go against gov are from kenya.Even on SGR,many folks have been moved from their land to make a space for the longest electrified speedy SGR in Africa.

Even all other protected areas like the one I showed u above,people were moved from those areas.

What do the Arabs want to do with the land?

rvp2018:
Well noted..45 for Ruto versus 55 for Raila with 3 percent error rate..Let's see on night of the 9th.It should be easy to call once results stream in.

Hopefully you won't mind deactivating for a week in my honour

Nope. I am democrat. I will accept the result and move on.

Tayser:


Hopefully you won't mind deactivating for a week in my honour

rvp2018:
He cant. Too old. Ruto doesnt joke. Raila violence start in 1982 failed coup and is ending in two months. He can barely stay a wake.

You should listen to Ruto - so you know what leaders nigeria are missing. Ruto is closest to Meles Zenawi we have in Africa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UIksvFAFI

Raila's economic plan is an utter joke and begs the question if he even has an economic team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case. The reports I've received from some of his people in 2007(ODM) and 2017(NASA) speaks of disorderliness, lack of vision, massive corruption(direct tickets), poor decision making, disloyalty, ingratitude....the list is long. All I'm trying to say is Baba is of questionable character and can't be trusted with that seat.

This is coming from a former supporter who practiced selective blindness over all these issues but with time couldn't overlook them anymore.

rvp2018:
I had to read that twice.

My father also met Ruto under almost exact same circumstance around the same time.
Previously my father had no time for KANU and it's orphan. Despite us being same tribe with Moi - my father was key DP (Kibaki) supporter.
I grew up also supporting DP - my dad considered kibaki a brilliant leader - so through 90s we supported and voted for him - he use to get 3-5 votes in entire constituency from our family - Moi got everything else.

Long story short - in 2007 I was disappointed with Kibaki tribalism and abandoning the narc dream - esp devolution.federalism - in Bomas - so I joined ODM - my father stuck with Kibaki - distrusting Raila - he was now reduced to 1 vote for Kibaki - in our family.

Of course we have violence and all that - Ruto get appointed to Min of Kilimo. My father and others had been struggling to be allowed to sell their tea to multinationals- who are besides our farms. KTDA had blocked all such attempts despite tea being liberazed (sp) in 1995. Sometimes they would allow it - then block it.

Long story short - Ruto gave my father and his group - a six am appointment - and in 10 minutes solved a problem that had been lingering for almost 20yrs. The battles we had with KTDA were many. Ruto took a phone call - told the MD of KTDA to read the tea act - and smallholder tea farms in my area were allowed to freely sell their tea. In five years our village totally transformed as now people were able to get 40shs per kilo - paid instantly - and didnt have to wait for a year - and there were no quality or tea overstaying - or name it. Biggest problem if you have large tea farms - those quality standards are too exating.

Anyway from then my father was sold. Ruto is one serious guy who report to office at even 5 am in the morning - and is very punctual - and put in real hardwork for long hours.

Kenya in 10yrs with his leadership will change like Ethiopia did under Meles.

Uhuru and Mois are desperate to stop him using Raila - but as long as they have failed to convince your people the kikuyus to board Raila train - Ruto is sleepwalking to statehouse.

We're in agreement as in most cases....but. Frankly,I'm really not impressed with Ruto's recent moves. Firstly there was the abandonment,some say betrayal of Kindiki. Then there's other pronouncements like returning the ICD depots to Mombasa,free diapers for 3 months, 50% women in cabinet that have me rethinking things. I'm yet to hear viable ideas like operationalising the bottom up economic approach via reviving ethnic welfare associations to pool resources for members in group initiatives. Like your Sarun Amabet Welfare association or Myot group but more financially and economically inclined like Luo union or GEMA with group investments in real estate,hospitality,manufacturing etc,etc.
Mzee,as things stand now I may actually sit this one out.

Lagos Nigeria.

kikuyu1:


We're in agreement as in most cases....but. Frankly,I'm really not impressed with Ruto's recent moves. Firstly there was the abandonment,some say betrayal of Kindiki.
Then there's other pronouncements like returning the ICD depots to Mombasa,free diapers for 3 months, 50% women in cabinet that have me rethinking things. I'm yet to hear viable ideas like operationalising the bottom up economic approach via reviving ethnic welfare associations to pool resources for members in group initiatives. Like your Sarun Amabet Welfare association or Myot group but more financially and economically inclined like Luo union or GEMA with group investments in real estate,hospitality,manufacturing etc,etc.
Mzee,as things stand now I may actually sit this one out.

One among several reasons that made me Quit 'Kenya kwisha.' We can't trust someone who can't think like a leader. Gachagua is a slow destruction - a catastrophe for UDA in that matter. I've listened to some of his manifestos and they ring primitiveness of the highest order. His ideals are stone age and don't hold the interests of many Kenyans.

RARUA is the real deal. All the leadership aspects can be seen and felt. We need people who have Kenya's best interest at heart, not looters.

UDA is a panel of thieves, criminals, uneducated, and corrupt cartels.... Look at some of the characters: Gachagua, waiguru, waititu, sudi, Obando, Ruto, weta, etc

rvp2018:
He has no upper hand. Kenya elections are easy to call. I have personally predicted every kenya election or referenda bar 2007 almost to a dot.

This British Prof who has Phd in kenya politics similarly does this regularly.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

He is predicting 51 percent for Ruto and 49 percent for Raila - I am predicting 53 percent with 46 percent for Raila. Opinion polls in kenya have very serious reliability problems because their sampling framework is faulty. Until you factor ethnicity as the key variable in understanding kenya politics - you're bound to get wrong - and all you need is deeper understanding of the ethnic tapestry that is kenya - as 1st step.

Dr Charles Horsnby understand kenya politics like no one - and some of his books - are very illuminating.

You should read his 2022 take - and if you're interested his previous analysis and books are available
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

1 month 20 days to go. Let's give time some patience. We'll be back after a few days to confirm my assertion.

I've read your articles. They are so insightful but still remain a theory - not practical. Naks for instance; Is pro-Azimio zone.

Tayser:


He is good in politics but terrible economically . I think he will mess the economy so badly Ruto will unseat him in 5 years. He's already talking of free handouts. Bloody hell.

Bruv, I disagree with the emboldened. I'm not 'pro- him' per se, but the Azimio team as a whole. That being said, we shouldn't also take away the +ves of an old man. That man has Kenya's best interest at heart. He worked with Kibaki - when our economy took a new shape - with an upward trajectory. ( that's the only scenario where we can pluck the assertion of his capability on boosting Kenya's economy since he was in power)

Nairobi.