It is no news that Nigeria has falling off the brink I had warned and hash-tagged for a long time during the campaigns. Unfortunately, Nigeria is now on a free fall. Nothing in the change agenda with present realities would halt that fall, it will continue this way for quite a long time. In my second essay, I will pen down the possible things that would happen to finally halt the fall and attempt a reverse. For now it will only get worse.

1. Nigeria's GDP was at about $570 billion just about 16 months ago, today that GDP has shrank to about $290 Billion, resulting to about 4 million job losses according to NBS. Given what is happening in Venezuela and Zimbabwe, I predict that in a matter of months, people would be out on the street calling for an ouster of the present government. What would be the driving force? Hunger. It is a strong force, we have seen it happen in many countries when their GDP shrinks by over 40 percent, with a high inequality gap and shrunken GDP per capita. Nigeria would not be different. Prepare for serious riots like you have never seen in Nigeria.

2. Fuel price will increase by at least another 40%. This is actually inevitable. We still import fuel, and we do so in USD. Marketers and importers have been hard hit, because with the current prices and the rate of inflation, they cannot afford forex to import their quotas. They would one way of the order have to jack up the prices again to meet their profit margins to the detriment of the already groaning Nigerian populace!

3. There would be food scarcity and scanty grocery stores. This is based on a number of things.

a. Firstly the Sahara desert have been encroaching on arable land in the North, with the worst desertification happening within the last year. Prof Chukwuma Soludo testified during his recent speech to APC governors, that in his village there are over 1000 northerners in his village most of which migrated as a result of drought in the North. This has forced North-south migration and about a 20% decrease in agricultural productivity.

b. Due to the recession, there is paucity of capital for farmers to access, leading to a decline in capital investments in Agriculture.

c. Fewer imports due to Forex scarcity. All these would lead to sky rocketing food prices, and food shortages.

4. There would be a decline in terrorism and Niger-Delta militancy. Wars such as these are funded by forex. A declining economy such as Nigeria would certainly lead to a decrease in funding of these miscreants. They would have a natural death, in addition to PMB's resolve to route out enemies of the state.

5. There would be another faction coming off APC due to its almost irredemable unpopularity (no direct fault of theirs), power hungry people would leave the party to form their own in order to abdicate themselves from the disintegrated Nigeria.

All is not gloomy, as have been painted, Nigeria would rise out of this if we take the right steps in sailing the sinking boat. In the coming days I will write about this. For now, brace up for these eventualities.

God Bless Nigeria.

CramJones

Your 2nd and 3rd point is scary but maybe true.

Cramjones and Tonyebarcanista flip flops like this

dis is not new. great minds on nairaland already predicted dis since last year after d dullard was elected n sworn. buari himself will hasten d coming collapse of nigeria tanks to his dead daura policies (command n control economy).
nigeria will continue to sink into d quakmire of economic depression. very soon anoda round of fuel scarcity will begin, a tactic design to manipulate nigerians to accept anoda increament of fuel price. more n more jobs will be lost. naira will soon be N500 to d dollar. nigerians purchasing power will reduce by 80% percent. d poor will become poorer under buari dullard owing to their reduced purchasing power n rising food prices. hunger will increase astronomically.
all dis will happen becos nigeria has reached her final point. d con3 has expire - PERIOD (increasing population n low productivity no tanks to nigeria's feeding bottle socialism will be d greatest plugs dat will set d final stage of disintergration). american prediction will come to pass very soon under dis govt.
d ONLY solution for nigeria to stop nigerian citizens in future from queing at somalia embassy is a return to Confederacy n Regionalism.
NIGERIA HAS EXPIRED!

Stop spewing trash and get a job. Most of the economic projections were positive and it shall be so by God's grace.

einst3in:
Stop spewing trash and get a job. Most of the economic projections were positive and it shall be so by God's grace.

Typical Nigerian mentality that has led us to this mess in the first place! "It is well by God's grace". We do the wrong things, siphon billions, and pray to God for it to be "well". Africa can never be great if we don't sit down plan and work our way out of our problems! God will never come down to help you. You have to use the brain and hands he gave you to work your way out of this mess. Stop the God calling unnecessarily and face reality!

-CramJones

hmm.

I disagree with number 3. There would be no food scarcity in Nigeria this year, we have never experience a very productive rain in the north like we did this year,rain and sun which is good for crop production. The delay and inconsistency in salary payment by most state government has led civil servant to return to farming. Take your car and drive through Nasarawa , Plateau, Bauchi upto Adamawa you will see farm estate everywhere. God bless Nigeria

Rise or fall in oil prices will determine our economic fate. Further fall with reduced production means recession conrinues but I believe Nigerians adapt easily. I'm sure hunger won't kill us as a lot of people are already embracing agriculture.

Aseneshii:
I disagree with number 3. There would be no food scarcity in Nigeria this year, we have never experience a very productive rain in the north like we did this year,rain and sun which is good for crop production. The delay and inconsistency in salary payment by most state government has led civil servant to return to farming. Take your car and drive through Nasarawa , Plateau, Bauchi upto Adamawa you will see farm estate everywhere. God bless Nigeria

I don't mean this year. The data shows it is inevitable. The NBS reported 20% decline in agricultural production, with an expanding population of 2.1million per annum. There has also been a decline in processed food imports due to high cost of Forex. A combination such as this with data I provided on climate change, it is only inevitable. I don't pray for it to happen, but the data says so.

-CramJones

Abagworo:
Rise or fall in oil prices will determine our economic fate. Further fall with reduced production means recession conrinues but I believe Nigerians adapt easily. I'm sure hunger won't kill us as a lot of people are already embracing agriculture.

Anyone that tells you that oil prices will ever go up is telling bare faced lies. This is why this would not happen.

1. The US is now fuel sufficient, and will NO LONGER buy African or middle eastern oil.

2. Oil is being discovered in multiple places in Africa and around the world, making the commodity common, there by maintaining a declined price.

3. OPEC has lost its monopolistic power, because its biggest buyer the US have now overtaken Saudi on the number of barrels produced, and they do so very cheaply through fracking.

4. The world is moving away from fuel powered cars. A trip to California and Seattle will convince you with electric powered Telsas everywhere. Most major car companies around the world would up the production of electric powered cars and slowly phase out gas powered ones.

The only thing that would push oil price up is a major war between the US and Russia. Asides this, forget oil prices ever rising!

-CramJones

cramjones the prophet of Doom

And you think government will fold their hands to let it deteriorate to that extent during their regime.

Bro, think twice unless you are wishing evil for your beloved country

But cramjones, you were a champion for this current administration. Why your sudden change of stance . Just curious

argon500:
And you think government will fold their hands to let it deteriorate to that extent during their regime.

Bro, think twice unless you are wishing evil for your beloved country

The government has done nothing until it got to this stage. The government is useless

Hmmmm

unadultrated truth

cramjones:


I don't mean this year. The data shows it is inevitable. The NBS reported 20% decline in agricultural production, with an expanding population of 2.1million per annum. There has also been a decline in processed food imports due to high cost of Forex. A combination such as this with data I provided on climate change, it is only inevitable. I don't pray for it to happen, but the data says so.

-CramJones

oga, you are wrong on food production, with the dip in oil prices, we are already being forced to jack up our food production, it will take time but food production is likely to increase with the southern states getting more serious in agriculture instead leaving it to the northerners alone cos no free money these days.

As long as the oil prices continue to dip, Nigerians will surely begin to seek alternative ways to survive, yes we have been lazy all these years but trust me Nigerians have now seen the reality.

New countries would soon sprink up , when u dont have free food to feed animals in zoo what happen , u give them freedom so they can go wild and find new ways to survive , pls and pls no body should blame Niger delta we have try our best , keeping zoo running for over 100 years

Ya Ya we heard

cramjones:
It is no news that Nigeria has falling off the brink I had warned and hash-tagged for a long time during the campaigns. Unfortunately, Nigeria is now on a free fall. Nothing in the change agenda with present realities would halt that fall, it will continue this way for quite a long time. In my second essay, I will pen down the possible things that would happen to finally halt the fall and attempt a reverse. For now it will only get worse.

1. Nigeria's GDP was at about $570 billion just about 16 months ago, today that GDP has shrank to about $290 Billion, resulting to about 4 million job losses according to NBS. Given what is happening in Venezuela and Zimbabwe, I predict that in a matter of months, people would be out on the street calling for an ouster of the present government. What would be the driving force? Hunger. It is a strong force, we have seen it happen in many countries when their GDP shrinks by over 40 percent, with a high inequality gap and shrunken GDP per capita. Nigeria would not be different. Prepare for serious riots like you have never seen in Nigeria.

2. Fuel price will increase by at least another 40%. This is actually inevitable. We still import fuel, and we do so in USD. Marketers and importers have been hard hit, because with the current prices and the rate of inflation, they cannot afford forex to import their quotas. They would one way of the order have to jack up the prices again to meet their profit margins to the detriment of the already groaning Nigerian populace!

3. There would be food scarcity and scanty grocery stores. This is based on a number of things.

a. Firstly the Sahara desert have been encroaching on arable land in the North, with the worst desertification happening within the last year. Prof Chukwuma Soludo testified during his recent speech to APC governors, that in his village there are over 1000 northerners in his village most of which migrated as a result of drought in the North. This has forced North-south migration and about a 20% decrease in agricultural productivity.

b. Due to the recession, there is paucity of capital for farmers to access, leading to a decline in capital investments in Agriculture.

c. Fewer imports due to Forex scarcity. All these would lead to sky rocketing food prices, and food shortages.

4. There would be a decline in terrorism and Niger-Delta militancy. Wars such as these are funded by forex. A declining economy such as Nigeria would certainly lead to a decrease in funding of these miscreants. They would have a natural death, in addition to PMB's resolve to route out enemies of the state.

5. There would be another faction coming off APC due to its almost irredemable unpopularity (no direct fault of theirs), power hungry people would leave the party to form their own in order to abdicate themselves from the disintegrated Nigeria.

All is not gloomy, as have been painted, Nigeria would rise out of this if we take the right steps in sailing the sinking boat. In the coming days I will write about this. For now, brace up for these eventualities.

God Bless Nigeria.

CramJones

Thank God we have people like you who have seen what i saw last year.
Your prediction if nothing is done MUST come to past and i will bet with anything.

This the best time for we youth to form a national political party that will acomodate all the geopolitical zone to take advantage of what will befall on this country with little cost. We youth shhould start planning on how to take over government from all these pdp and apc killers or whatch the same people in pdp and apc form another usless party for us.

This my prediction last year and i still remenber people calling me prophet of doom.
https://www.nairaland.com/2811049/how-survive-2016-expected-economic

Cramjones, take your evil predictions away. None will see the light of the day. Economic growth is not overnight and you can't claim ignorance of the cause of the current economic problem, of which Nigeria is not alone. You didn't believe Dangote when he said Nigeria will begin exporting refined fuel by 2018, but want us to believe these evil prophesies.

Cramjones are u wailing?

Cramjones has finally seen the light. Those predictations are accurate to a great extent.

I advise every future-thinking person to either find means of earning foreign exchange and also pull away from fixed naira earning jobs and diversify into service industries. This era is the best moment for service industry entrepreneurs.

You are quite spot on Cramjones. But challenges bring out the best in leaders across the globe. Franklin Roosevelt became the American President at a time when the nation was in deep recession but he was able to lead America out of the woods and placed it on the path of great economic growth. I think that is the difference between a man who knew what to do in office and a man who came to power without the requisite ideas. We are in for more economic turbulence with you grim predictions. I only pray that somehow we get ourselves out of this abyss.

sweerychick:
But cramjones, you were a champion for this current administration. Why your sudden change of stance . Just curious

Below is one of the guy's post in 2014

Meanwhile, I am self employed and earn over $150,000 as my basic salary. Key: Vote someone that would create the right environment for you to create employment. That person is the People's General - Mohammadu Buhari.

-CramJones

(Quote) (Report) 10 Likes (Like) 2 Shares (Share)

femlex:


Below is one of the guy's post in 2014

Meanwhile, I am self employed and earn over $150,000 as my basic salary. Key: Vote someone that would create the right environment for you to create employment. That person is the People's General - Mohammadu Buhari.

-CramJones

(Quote) (Report) 10 Likes (Like) 2 Shares (Share)

LOL

Guy, I stumble on this your post below today, with the current environment, this your $150,000 will be like $420,000 now o, how far guy?

Meanwhile, I am self employed and earn over $150,000 as my basic salary. Key: Vote someone that would create the right environment for you to create employment. That person is the People's General - Mohammadu Buhari.

-CramJones

(Quote) (Report) 10 Likes (Like) 2 Shares (Share)

Malthus Thomas of nairaland we see you....