Please find attached, Transcorp application form and teaser memorandum.

Flint.

Transcorp is over priced

@ KDK

Mr KDK, kindly put us in the know of the basis of your saying Transcorp is overpriced,

Flint.

@adconline

the issues you raised are the same issues on every investors mind and the single line i've selected is the big "BUT" that makes them buy into the company or watch as things unfold.
New companies all over the world take their time to gain a good reputation, investors (should) understand the risk of investing in companies without history.

My little adviice is that if u cant stand ur stock value( market price) being stagnant for the next one year then dont invest in Transcorp as their projections show that they'll be making huge losses until the year 2009.
However if u can stand stagnation in share prices then its a good buy if your target holding period is not less than 3 years

Frankikiri is just right. DO NOT BUY TRANSCORP IF YOU CAN'T WAIT FOR THREE YEARS MINIMUM cos this company is one more or less just starting off and they still got a long way to go with reaping good returns from their investments.

Flint.

@Flintz
Who is to say that in those 3 years,changes in the political environment won't undermine the coy?

@ 4play

I think it is a rather apparent risk facing any company in Nigeria i.e. political risk. This risk doesn't face Transcorp alone; but then, we view this as a great risk to the success of Transcorp because of the political favoritism it gets from the current-soon-to-go dispensation.
Hence, political risk among many other risks that you can check out int their prospectus, challenge the success of Transcorp.

Flint.

Interesting article on Transcorps that was linked in another thread by WindyWendy-http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/12/04/2136441.htm

4 Play:

Interesting article on Transcorps that was linked in another thread by WindyWendy-http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/12/04/2136441.htm

Thanks for that article 4 Play. It gives one great insight i tell you.

For those questioning the value proposition of NITEL & M-TEL, there is an article below about a UAE
company negotiating to get into the GSM market for a princely sum of $400million - licensing fees alone!

http://www.tribune.com.ng/12012007/news/news3.html

To me, the only potentially profitable arm of transcorp will be NITEL. My reasons being:

1. They already have the infrastructure and network laid out, and so can easily recapture market share from all the private fixed operators. Besides, most people in Nigeria have nitel lines that are currently not working anyway, so it'll probably cost them a lot less to just have NITEL turn it back on, rather than continue to operate the much more expensive private operators -- in other words, switching cost for a lot of people with fixed lines is low!
2. Most of the private fixed operators do not have deep pockets anyway, so in the face of stiff competition with NITEL, they'll most likely fold
3. They have tried and tested technical partners (British Telecom) that have virtually taken over the company
4. Restructuring is right now on track and they've taken the first step in the right direction, which is streamlining staff strength and plugging all the loopholes from which funds were flowing out.

In my view, MTEL doesn't stand much of a chance, especially in the face of companies like MTN. OMG, I wonder how that company's going to do it (I mean MTEL). They don't even have the type of money that MTN has, or even the infrastructure or management or experience. MTN (and other current mobile operators) have now made getting a cell phone so cheap, I doubt that people will want to switch to MTEL in a hurry _{except maybe the MTEL loyal die hards}

The hotel business . . . well I can't say much for that right now, except that the fact that it's in Abuja may possibly be an advantage. But then there is so much competition and not one of the people on the Management of Transcorp is a hotel guru or even knows the first thing about running a hotel. I have my doubts.

So only buy into Transcorp if they spin off NITEL and put it up separately by way of a public offer.

Besides, look around the globe and you'll find that conglomerates hardly ever do well -- the sum of the parts is usually worth more than the whole. CASE IN POINT: UAC, which only started doing well after it stripped off most of its divisions _{I guess the saying "jack of all trade, master of none" rings true . . .}

Just my 2 cents

@Windywendy

Conglomerates hardly ever do well? I wouldn't over-generalized on that one.

You have taken your stand based on what you know or don't know. You may
be flat out right or wrong. Conversely, we may be flat out right or wrong as
well. Since you are endorsing NITEL and not Transcorp, are you suggesting
then that N7.5 is too high to pay for a share of NITEL, you think NITEL on its
IPO will sell for less? If so, how much do you think a NITEL share will go for?

Thanx 4play. The article supporteed some of my arguements. Who audited Transcorp? What about conflict of interests.

Why rushing to IPO? because Baba is still in office. These folks are taking money from gullible Nigerians. Why cant they run this company as a private company untill it establishes itself. I would rather invest in Dangote than Transcorp cos Nigerians are incapable of managing a mega corporation. Best and biggest naija company NB PLC is partly owned by Dutch group Heinenken. Why cant they be like SAB Miller of South Africa. I know what we can do and what we cant. Where were these so called shareholders when Protea, a S/African group took over the management of major private hotels in naija?

I'm more interested in a stable democratic government over a sustainable period of time. Nigeria elitist ruling class often come up with these big ideas that will end up as big elephant projects, because the environment is so damn polluted.

@ Iyke-D:

Yes indeed, conglomerates hardly ever do well. I'm talking more in terms of the valuation multiples investors usually place on them. They're hardly ever a good return on one's investment. At least we're both based in the US. Just take a look at how wall street for instance values conglomerates, they usually have lower valuation multiples compared to companies in similar lines of business but with a narrower focus.

As per my views on Nitel, these have only been informed by my observation and research while I was in Nigeria over the last 1 month. If Nitel were to go public, I would definitely invest as much as N5m depending on whether or not the price is right. Now I haven't gone into the question of what price is right because there has been no need to. But if I had to, then I would simply take a look at their financials and do some thorough valuation analyses. But I believe NITEL is on the right track and will begin to show some respectable performance in the next 24 months at least, based on the steps they've taken to date and the potential they have for growth.

@windywendy,

As per my views on Nitel, these have only been informed by my observation
and research while I was in Nigeria over the last 1 month. If Nitel were to go public,
I would definitely invest as much as N5m depending on whether or not the price is
right.

You have answered my question. That is part of the reason why some of us have
invested in Transcorp, not adding the other acquisitions as well. Obviously we are
willing to accept the implied risks early on in the game. It is an experiment that
has never been tried in Nigeria before, might or might not work. Early indicators
shows that they are on the right path, otherwise we wouldn't be discussing them
right now.

Also, I would be hesitant to compare the Nigerian Stock Market and the American
Stock market.

OH no, I'm not comparing the NSE to the US market. If you look at my earlier post, you'll see that my case in point was UAC.

As per my views on Nitel and transcorp, I certainly believe that this is a case where the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. That is, even if NITEL does well, the other divisions of transcorp will make the overall performance of the company (transcorp) unimpressive. Again, this is just my view and like you said, might be totally wrong.

PS: Can you please tell me what early indications of transcorp (apart from NITEL which I've mentioned) show that they are on the right path?

- Transcorp Hilton Hotel. For all the talk, its still the premiere destination of
lodging in Abuja. Occupancy rate now at about 70% from about 40% prior
to its acquistion. Overall 27% growth in revenue, that is all within 1 year of
ownership.

- The IPO itself. Hedges whatever political risk they might have been exposed
to in terms of ownership structure, it further complicates things. It infuses the
organization with the funds to even make NITEL, MTEL, Transcorp Hilton more
profitable and to pursue other ventures.

If you are willing to invest N5million in NITEL "whether or not the price is right"
and Transcorp owns majority stake already in the same NITEL, I find it hard to
understand your justification for why buying Transcorp is such a bad idea. Do you
think the IPO pricing won't reflect on NITEL valuation once its finally turned around?

I honestly believe its too early to be worried about the "conglomerate effect" with
Transcorp, afterall, we are not talking about more than 10 portfolio companies as
of now or even in the near future.

Hmmm, don't misquote me Iyke-D. I said i'll invest up to N5m in NITEL depending on whether or not the price is right

As per my justification for not buying transcorp, like I said, the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. Transcorp as a whole will reflect negatively on NITEL's valuation. Read my post again -- even if NITEL by itself puts out stellar results, those of mtel and the other chains will dampen it. I personally don't see the others as companies that will make any profits in the near future (especially mtel), and that'll bring down the performance of the group as a whole _{that's basically what I mean by the sum of the parts being more than the whole}

Iyke-D:

- Transcorp Hilton . . . Occupancy rate now at about 70% from about 40% prior
to its acquistion. Overall 27% growth in revenue, that is all within 1 year of
ownership.

Yeah, and I suppose those results have been audited by a reputable firm right??

Few questions to you: Are you honestly comfortable with the management and ownership structure of that company? Aren't you bothered about the fact that they're doing an IPO without any results to show? Do you think the management has the requisite experience in the various lines of business to take the company to stellar heights? I mean the current MD has been a banker all his life for crying out loud. It's like putting Bunmi Oni _{never mind his recent thing with cadbury} at the helm of affairs of a conglomerate in the financial services sector (banking, insurance, credit cards etc)  and expecting him to deliver stellar results. IMO, transcorp hasn't got its act together in that regard and has hastily acquired several unrelated lines of businesses that its management clearly lacks the capacity to run efficiently on a long-term basis. There's no clear and coherent strategy, just a whole bunch of fluffy statements meant to psyche up would-be investors.

Besides, I personally don't like the whole government involvement thing going on there. It stinks. Even the stock market hasn't been too keen on transcorp. Ever since its listing at N6, it's only a handful of "collaborators" that have been buying the shares just to shore up the price in preparation for the IPO. _{Don't ask me how I got my info on that one, but believe me, I have my sources.}

Having said all these though, the stock may still make money. But I'm just not convinced it's worth buying, especially since there are more outstanding investment opportunities on the stock market. Infact, I'ld rather put my money in CPs than invest in transcorp 

NITEL
====
I did not misquote you, please re-read your comment about you investing as much as N5m in NITEL's
IPO depending on "whether or not the price is right". Also, kindly share with us the audited facts or
fool-proof observation behind your NITEL's claim and why you will want to invest in its IPO.

Comfort Level
==========
Like a few other folks here, I got involved with Transcorp when it was mainly an idea on paper.
The private placement was about to commence and not a single acquistion has been made then!
What financial track record? We knew that while it might be a risky venture, we were sold on the
IDEA and the fact that its potential for wealth creation will be unparalleled in Nigeria if it succeeds
especially given the fact that most of the founders were at the very top of their games.

Of course, the only way for us to find out whether it will succeed or not was to participate. So, YES,
they are on track as far as we are concerned. And YES, we fully understand that its young and will
need time to get its acts together.

While, the IPO doesn't apply to my situation, I believe the driving vision behind the company's
emergence was one of the primary reason for embarking on an IPO early. That is to make it a truly
Nigerian company that is owned by as many Nigerians as possible. Additionally, this was also buoyed
by the fact that they intended to shed the image of being an "Obasanjo" company or a company for
the elites ONLY. Its a catch 22 situation - they go public, they are criticized and sometimes rightly for
accessing the market so early. If they don't, they have no way of fending off attacks about being an
"Obasanjo and friend's ONLY" company. What gives?

Longe & Co.
========
Hmm, so someone that at some point was heading the biggest bank (First Bank) in the country is
not even remotely qualified to be running a holding company like Transcorp? I honestly don't think
they lack the human capital that is obtained anywhere else in the Nigerian private sector, if that is
what you are getting at. The company is very US-heavy (a lot of staffers and directors) have either
worked or had some form of education in the US at some point or the other. I have been to their
office and have dealt very up close with some of these guys and I do not have much grounds to
question their competency. Its at the strategic level that I don't have any first hand experience with,
but that does not mean that they are lacking for that matter. You know, you can buy a lot of these
strategic stuff. Do you think most of the people behind Google, Ebay, Yahoo, and the likes were all
that financially savvy? No, they were mainly techies that hooked up with the right venture capitalists
and the rest is now history!

Bunmi Oni
=======
I suppose there is only one Bunmi Oni managing a listed company in the NSE or just the one that
got caught? So that you know, there are Bunmi Oni everywhere, even in the US. Ken Lay or Benny
Ebbers or Aldelphia guys will not be the last CEOs to be caught padding the books.

Government
========
What exactly do you mean by government's involvement thing? Is it government's funds, Obasanjo's
purported shares, or government's promised concessions/licenses that you are alluding to? I suppose
also that every other privatization exercises that resulted in other successful bidders were transparent
and fair, not until Transcorp arrived at the scene, right?

Iyke-D:

NITEL
====
I did not misquote you, please re-read your comment about you investing as much as N5m in NITEL's
IPO depending on "whether or not the price is right". Also, kindly share with us the audited facts or
fool-proof observation behind your NITEL's claim and why you will want to invest in its IPO.

Yes you did. I said that I would invest up to N5m depending on whether or not the price is right while you've quoted me in your earlier post as saying that I would invest whether or not the price is right. When you ignore the phrase "depending on", those are two are very different sentences. The first says in other words, "I'll consider whether the price is right before investing", while the second says "I'll invest irrespective of the price". Those are two very different statements, so let's leave it at that. I'm not stupid, and can never put my money in an investment "whether or not the price is right", no matter how much I like it. So whether or not I invest will depend on whether or not the price is right.

Secondly, I haven't made any financial claims concerning NITEL, so you don't need any audited facts from me. Those statements that I made were just the type of opinions that you would typically find in the MD&A section of a financial statement, and therefore do not need to be audited. They can easily be verified by anyone interested in investing.  Like I said in my earlier post, if I wanted to invest in Nitel, I would do my valuation analyses based on the financial statements, and of course I'ld require the statements to be audited. Now, in the case of hilton, unless you actually went into the hotel to count occupancy rates, etc, you would need to have those figures that you quoted audited before placing any reliance on them _{at least i would think so, especially if you were planning to put your money in there}

Iyke-D:


Comfort Level
==========
Like a few other folks here, I got involved with Transcorp when it was mainly an idea on paper.
The private placement was about to commence and not a single acquistion has been made then!
What financial track record? We knew that while it might be a risky venture, we were sold on the
IDEA and the fact that its potential for wealth creation will be unparalleled in Nigeria if it succeeds
especially given the fact that most of the founders were at the very top of their games.

Of course, the only way for us to find out whether it will succeed or not was to participate. So, YES,
they are on track as far as we are concerned. And YES, we fully understand that its young and will
need time to get its acts together.

While, the IPO doesn't apply to my situation, I believe the driving vision behind the company's
emergence was one of the primary reason for embarking on an IPO early. That is to make it a truly
Nigerian company that is owned by as many Nigerians as possible. Additionally, this was also buoyed
by the fact that they intended to shed the image of being an "Obasanjo" company or a company for
the elites ONLY. Its a catch 22 situation - they go public, they are criticized and sometimes rightly for
accessing the market so early. If they don't, they have no way of fending off attacks about being an
"Obasanjo and friend's ONLY" company. What gives?

I personally think it's very OK to invest in an idea that one believes in, but that type of investment does not belong on the stock market -- it's best left to angel investors, venture capitalists and Private equity operators. Usually, the company will come to the market only after it has established a track record. That's the norm, and is even a requirement of the SEC in Nigeria. However, Transcorp of course had to be an exception. Now that makes me feel uneasy. _{Is it that they couldn't convince any VCs or PE firms of their viability and had to break all the rules and come to the capital market knowing fully well that the investors will be less demanding}

The reason you have given for the early IPO is just sentimental. "Nigerian company that is owned by as many nigerians as possible" or "to shed the image of being an "Obasanjo" company or a company for the elites ONLY" are no sound business reasons to embark on an IPO . Otherwise, any company can come up with its idea and then go raising funds from the public through the stock market with whatever sentimental reasons they want to give _{"i want to share my father's company with the rest of nigerians. . . yeah right}. It doesn't happen anywhere in the world.

Iyke-D:

Longe & Co.
========
Hmm, so someone that at some point was heading the biggest bank (First Bank) in the country is
not even remotely qualified to be running a holding company like Transcorp? I honestly don't think
they lack the human capital that is obtained anywhere else in the Nigerian private sector, if that is
what you are getting at. The company is very US-heavy (a lot of staffers and directors) have either
worked or had some form of education in the US at some point or the other. I have been to their
office and have dealt very up close with some of these guys and I do not have much grounds to
question their competency. Its at the strategic level that I don't have any first hand experience with,
but that does not mean that they are lacking for that matter. You know, you can buy a lot of these
strategic stuff. Do you think most of the people behind Google, Ebay, Yahoo, and the likes were all
that financially savvy? No, they were mainly techies that hooked up with the right venture capitalists
and the rest is now history!

Now here's where I think you also getting me wrong. I don't have any doubt about Longe's qualifications or competence as an excellent banker. However running a bank requires a very different skills set than running a conglomerate, especially one with a lot of unrelated businesses, none of which he has any prior experience running. While Longe might have been extremely good at running the largest bank in the country, I doubt that he'll be able to exhibit the same level of competence in a business that's totally different, especially one in which he has no experience. Everything's different from the financial services sector, right from the calibre of people you're managing to the distributors and market segments you're dealing with. If Longe had some experience running at least some of the businesses transcorp is to be engaging in, then I might be a little bit more comfortable but he doesn't have any such experience.

You mentioned google and ebay, etc. And yes, that's my point exactly. The google guys were techies and they got into doing what they knew to do best -- Technology!!! That's the type of leadership a company needs. They didn't need to be financially savvy because that's not the focus of their business (they're not in the financial services business). Can you imagine those guys being put at the healm of affairs of a conglomerate manufacturing company? I bet you, if that were to happen, not even the venture capitalists or PE investors would touch such a company with a foot-long pole. Who wants to invest in a company that has as its leader someone without the relevant industry experience??

Forget all that US-education thing oh, it's experience that counts for real. Some of my classmates from wharton resigned from Mckinsey and went to work for O&O when that company newly took over Oando (formerly Unipetrol). They all returned to the states very shortly after 'because they realized that working in the oil and gas sector in nigeria is totally different from what they thought it was and had little or nothing to do with their US education.

Personally, when I invest in a company, I put a higher premium on experience as opposed to education. It's experience that delivers the bottom line. Ultimately though, a good education combined with extensive RELEVANT industry experience is the best scenario.

Iyke-D:


Bunmi Oni
=======
I suppose there is only one Bunmi Oni managing a listed company in the NSE or just the one that
got caught? So that you know, there are Bunmi Oni everywhere, even in the US. Ken Lay or Benny
Ebbers or Aldelphia guys will not be the last CEOs to be caught padding the books.

In making reference to Bunmi Oni, I was in NO way referring to his scandal with cadbury. I was simply saying that if you took a guy like Bunmi Oni, who had very extensive experience in the manufacturing sector, and put him at the healm of affairs of a financial services company, it is very doubtful that he would deliver the same type of results that he delivered with cadbury. That illustration was made in my bid to drive home the point that the fact that one succeeds in one industry does not automatically mean that he can succeed in another, especially one which is completely different. So my comments had nothing to do with CEOs padding the books and all of that other stuff you mentioned.

Iyke-D:

Government
========
What exactly do you mean by government's involvement thing? Is it government's funds, Obasanjo's
purported shares, or government's promised concessions/licenses that you are alluding to? I suppose
also that every other privatization exercises that resulted in other successful bidders were transparent
and fair, not until Transcorp arrived at the scene, right?

Yes I'm referring to all those and more. It has nothing to do with being transparent and fair, i just don't like the whole political jinx surrounding it. This is just my opinion. The president of the country, the head of the NSE, a nigerian company created to enable nigerians take advantage of the privatization bla bla bla. . . , all of the unrelated lines of businesses with a bunch of hand-picked directors, most of which have little or no experience in the business of transcorp, etc, etc . . . all to me sounds very unbusiness-like and definitely unprofessional. I don't like the feel at all. I'ld much rather invest in a company like BCC or nahco that has a clear-cut private sector ownership, not something hastily put together by the government and a bunch of his friends. Again, this is my opinion.

Stupid
=====
I may have bungled what you said but there is no where in my write up that I suggested that you were stupid.
My take still on your earlier write up was that [b]you will invest some money anyway [/b]in NITEL - but the amount
of "up to N5m" may depend on the pricing. So if its priced at N1, you may max out, but if it was priced at N10, you
may draw that down to N1m. Anyway, when it gets to the point of parsing words, I start looking for the exit door.


NITEL
====
You did not make any financial claim about NITEL, but I also asked that you share those observations and research
that have you convinced to "may be" part with up to N5m "depending" on whether the price is right or not. You are
yet to see the financials but we are supposed to be sold on the fact that NITEL may warrant your shelling out up to
N5m on their IPO. Oh, I see, you were just thinking out aloud, as you will get your hands on the financials should the
need arise. And by the way, about company financials, I know people that at one point or the other that may have just
tinkered a little with a couple of 10-K, and 10-Q, especially when the controller or CFO has a certain figure in mind, if
you get my drift. The numbers themselves are just numbers, doesn't mean they are always accurate.


I am glad you cared to drop the "Wharton" thing in there for special effects. Though, you and I know when it comes
to real investment, you really don't need to attend one of those to be able to succeed as an investor especially when
it comes to start ups.

I will leave it at that, I have invested in Transcorp already and I believe most of your advice are for those deciding
whether to buy into the IPO or not. Yes, a fraction of my decision may have been sentimental, but understandable
given the "vision" behind it. Nevertheless, we are banking on making serious money even with the band of misfits
running the show. Your other points are well taken and there is no need for a re-rebuttal. Only time will prove us
wrong or right. Cheers.

Iyke-D

How much is Transcorp worth? Any independent audit to ascertain that those shareholders actually paid for the shares alloted to them? Can you go into a partnership with someone whose worth you cannot ascertain. This overweighs all the risks.

As per being US educated, do we really have the regulatory framework like Sarbanes and Oxley Act to checkmate the likes of Ndi Okereke Onyiuke who is a mega shareholder as well as President of NSE. Can you be a judge in your own case?

I know of three things Nigerians cannot really do- Organizing a free and fair election, a free and fair census and managing a mega corporation. These staffers do not have extensive experience in hotel management, remember what happened to Econet wireless, Nigerians could not manage it because of lack of experience in GSM technology and it was rescued by Mo Mohamed of Sudan, CEO of Celtel.

@adconline,
You are asking for the impossible. I invested in Transcorp because I believed in its vision and its potential
for creating wealth. I believed that then, and I still believe that today.

Ndi
===
Please google Raymond Obieri, the erstwhile president of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Ndi is the
Director General/CEO of the NSE.

Here is a tidbit from Thisday. . .

Dr. Raymond Obieri's name is associated with diligence, humility and success. The ace banker,
who retired two years ago after putting in 38 years of active career, has a citation of God's immense
blessing. He is a director in more than eight viable companies and so many other non-governmental
organisations in the country. In a tripod manner, he is presently the Chairman of Intercontinental Bank
Plc, the Nigerian Stock Exchange and Summit Finance Company Limited.

Apparently, both Ndi's and Raymond are allowed to continue in their NSE roles. Why no one was calling
for Raymond's head but Ndi's beats me. Why you are it, also google for Mr. Oba Otudeko who just recently
became the president of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Here is a little help from Wiki.

Oba Otudeko, is an officer of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, he was born on 1943. Oba as he is
called is a highly successful Nigerian entrepreneur. He chairs the board of a number of companies including
the Honeywell Group of Companies, a Nigerian based conglomerate and holding company with strong
international presence. He is a Non-Executove Director of First Bank Nigeria, PLC. He is the founder of Oba
Otudeko Foundation. He was a one-time Chairman of Vee-Networks. He was istalled the 16th President
of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday 8th December 2006.

How Much is Transcorp Worth?
======================
You are asking me a $2billion question. But if you are really interested in knowing, some of the information
is contained in their prospectus. Of course, for some of you guys there is nothing to believe about Transcorp
even if there was an 18 months audited report (I believe). Some of you guys will go out on a limb to vouch
for the market valuations or audited reports of other companies, but when it comes to Transcorp we have
to invoke Sarbane Oxley and the likes. What has SOX got to do with Nigeria? Should we just start using SOX
because Transcorp just appeared on the market?

So Nigerians CAN NOT manage a mega corporation? What lesson are we supposed to take from that? Don't
ever attempt it because GOD said Nigerians CAN NOT manage a mega corporation? The verdict is still out on
that and so far I am glad to be a part of that experiment. What is life without hope, faith, and of course a
chance to make some real money?

Free Shares
========
Can you ascertain that all the shares of First Bank, Union Bank, Zenith Bank, Oando, Conoil, etc are actually
paid for? I am not sure I see where you are going here. Also, Ndi does not own mega shares in Transcorp,
7.2 million shares out of a possible 26billion shares its not "mega" by any definition. Now, Dangote's 1 billion
shares or that of Otedola's is really mega. So I suppose Ndi and the others looked away, why Dangote and
Femi Otedola just awarded themselves billions of shares each without paying for them, what are we really
really getting at?

Just like as the private placement target of N6billion resulted in about N18billion, I am predicting that its IPO
will come very close to meeting its target, that is if its not exceeded, then we can all exercise our jaws better.
Time will tell.

Iyke-D:

Stupid
=====
I may have bungled what you said but there is no where in my write up that I suggested that you were stupid.
My take still on your earlier write up was that [b]you will invest some money anyway [/b]in NITEL - but the amount
of "up to N5m" may depend on the pricing. So if its priced at N1, you may max out, but if it was priced at N10, you
may draw that down to N1m. Anyway, when it gets to the point of parsing words, I start looking for the exit door.

Hey Iyke-D, let's just agree that you got me wrong there OK?. At least I've explained what I meant _{which is NOT what you've said again in your above quote}, so let's leave it at that. And by the way, I wasn't trying to say that you suggested that I'm stupid, I was just trying to say that I would consider both growth prospects and price before making any investment. Afterall, what's the use of buying a company with excellent growth prospects that is way overpriced?

Iyke-D:


NITEL
====
You did not make any financial claim about NITEL, but I also asked that you share those observations and research
that have you convinced to "may be" part with up to N5m "depending" on whether the price is right or not. You are
yet to see the financials but we are supposed to be sold on the fact that NITEL may warrant your shelling out up to
N5m on their IPO. Oh, I see, you were just thinking out aloud, as you will get your hands on the financials should the
need arise. And by the way, about company financials, I know people that at one point or the other that may have just
tinkered a little with a couple of 10-K, and 10-Q, especially when the controller or CFO has a certain figure in mind, if
you get my drift. The numbers themselves are just numbers, doesn't mean they are always accurate.

I'm not trying to "sell" anyone on the fact that I will invest, I was just talking about the growth opportunities that I see for Nitel in Nigeria. Given that, the only other thing I would do before investing is the financial analyses, and if both jive, then bingo, i'm game. Simple.

And yes, 10-ks and 10-Qs do get thinkered with like you said. And that's why I mentioned about they being audited by a reputable audit firm. At least, that's the best any investor can rely on, in the absence of actually going in there to do her own audit. Contrary to what you think, the numbers are not just numbers. They tell me what the past performance has been over a number of years (and it should be at least 5years as required for most companies listing for the first time) and on the basis of that I can make projections, comparisons, and all that good stuff that will enable me come up with a valuation or range of valuations as the case may be.

Iyke-D:

I am glad you cared to drop the "Wharton" thing in there for special effects. Though, you and I know when it comes
to real investment, you really don't need to attend one of those to be able to succeed as an investor especially when
it comes to start ups.

Now Iyke-D, this is the only one statement that you've made that I really do take very personally. And I will ask you to apologize.

I didn't, like you said, throw the wharton thing in there for special effects. You mentioned in your post that you were confident in the educational qualifications of the transcorp management and that a lot of staffers had some form of education in the US. And I was just trying to simply tell you that that could be irrelevant. I know from your location that  you're based in the US and would therefore know that wharton is one of the very good b-schools around. So in mentioning that classmates from wharton couldn't perform in an oil and gas company in naija, I was simply saying "one might have the best education from a top school, but it might not really count much without experience". So please don't misunderstand me on that one.

In summary, I see this site as a forum just to share ideas. In some instances, there would be disagreements and people will naturally want to defend their positions. There's no doubt that you like transcorp. I personally, for now don't like it. Now that might change sometime down the line as I see things unfold. If I get more comfortable about their business model later on, I might then decide to invest after doing my homework. But like you said, Time will tell.

@windwendy,

You have taking a couple of my statements out of context or twisted them to derive new meanings, something
you accused me of.

For instance:

And yes, 10-ks and 10-Qs do get thinkered with like you said. And that's why I mentioned
about they being audited by a reputable audit firm. At least, that's the best any investor can rely on,
in the absence of actually going in there to do her own audit. Contrary to what you think, the numbers
are not just numbers.

This was how I actually ended my statement:

The numbers themselves are just numbers, doesn't mean they are always accurate.

You can base your projections on 5 year earnings reports, but if there are some shenanigans lets say
in the first, second, or third year, your analysis becomes skewed and inaccurate, and yes plugging
numbers do happen more often than people will like to admit. However, there was no where that I
suggested that the 5 years earning report be discarded entirely. I can't access the NSE web site right
now, but I believe its perfectly within its guidelines to allow venture-capitalistic type companies to use
18months worth of audited reports - I need verify this though.

Also with reference to the education qualifications of the people Transcorp, this was actually what
I said:

The company is very US-heavy (a lot of staffers and directors) have either worked or had some
form of education in the US at some point or the other. I have been to their office and have dealt very
up close with some of these guys and I do not have much grounds to question their competency. Its at
the strategic level that I don't have any first hand experience with, but that does not mean that they
are lacking for that matter.

While I stated obviously that some of the staffers or directors have US Education, Education wasn't
the entire thrust of that statement. I also mentioned worked but also acknowledged that I do
not have much info to gauge them at the strategic level. You left all that out in your comments.

Nevertheless, while I didn't think your initial Wharton reference was called for (I wasn't questioning your
credentials in any way). You have my apologies if you found that insulting, although I wasn't the one
that highlighted it.

Finally, while experience is great, if the pre-requisite for doing anything is experience only and
that which is proven, there will be no innovations, and no risk-taking. There will be no CEOs, because
before you can be hired as the CEO of XYZ organization, you must first be a CEO of ABC Corporation!
Fundamentally, its not a question of whether I like Transcorp, its just that I treat/see it differently - mainly
as a new venture with promise. Conversely, I may be wrong but I am yet to see any single positive thing
that you see with Transcorp - which is perfectly okay by the way.

@ Iyke-

I wasn't drawing attention to my credentials, infact no where did I talk about or make reference to myself or my credentials. I was simply stating the fact that some wharton grads went to work for an oil coy in nigeria, didn't do well there and had to return. I referred to them as classmates, because that's what they are, and I know them personally. All this was in a bid to elaborate on my point that having a US education means nothing without experience. You didn't have to attack me, it (your attack) just simply gave me the impression that you do have a complex, which I don't believe is the case. So please don't tell me that you didn't think my initial wharton reference was called for.

Take an objective look again at the excerpt from my earlier post on the subject and read carefully this time

windywendy:

Forget all that US-education thing oh, it's experience that counts for real. Some of my classmates from wharton resigned from Mckinsey and went to work for O&O when that company newly took over Oando (formerly Unipetrol). They all returned to the states very shortly after 'because they realized that working in the oil and gas sector in nigeria is totally different from what they thought it was and had little or nothing to do with their US education.

By the way your apology is accepted. Please don't let that type of unnecessary personal swipe re-occur. Thanks.

^{How Much is Transcorp Worth?
======================
You are asking me a $2billion question. But if you are really interested in knowing, some of the information
is contained in their prospectus. Of course, for some of you guys there is nothing to believe about Transcorp
even if there was an 18 months audited report (I believe). Some of you guys will go out on a limb to vouch
for the market valuations or audited reports of other companies, but when it comes to Transcorp we have
to invoke Sarbane Oxley and the likes. What has SOX got to do with Nigeria? Should we just start using SOX
because Transcorp just appeared on the market?}
We cannot believe in Transcorp because it has a flawed business strategy.because NITEL and NICON were undersold and there was favoritism at play. What's going to happen with new Govt? I mean legal/ethical standards that would guarantee investors money since NDi Okereke runs NSE not the president. This is a conflict of interests. I don't know why Nigerians always defend low standard. This company cannot even enlist in Ghanaian stock exchange, let alone S/Africa. You as an investor should know some of these holes. Does Transcorp have underwriters? Can it secure a line of credit from global financial institutions like IFC, Merril Lynch, RSB without a business and credit track record?
I would classify their stocks as junk since they do not have any record to prove me wrong. You don't know their worth. Glo Mobile is a profit private venture and it has not gone public, why the rush with Transcorp. Let this company be privately managed for some years so that people can access their performance. Do you know what they did; they allotted themselves with “paper shares” and are now raising your money to run their experiment. This is going to be like Societe Generale Bank of Sarakis, where every member of the National Assembly got their deposits before it went bankrupt and masses lost their deposits

^{So Nigerians CAN NOT manage a mega corporation? What lesson are we supposed to take from that? Don't
ever attempt it because GOD said Nigerians CAN NOT manage a mega corporation? The verdict is still out on
that and so far I am glad to be a part of that experiment. What is life without hope, faith, and of course a
chance to make some real money? Grin}


This should be devoid of sentiments and spirituality. Nigerians have not successfully managed a mega corporation. They use Nigerian as their CEOs but they are always under strict evaluation and monitoring by their white partners because he who blows the piper dictates the tune. Biggest companies on NSE by market share are partly owned by foreigners. From NB PLC, Cadbury, Coca Cola to PZ. do you know any company that is 100% by Nigerians that is a mega corporation?

Nigeria does not have a global product and will take time to have one. S/Africa has MTN, Standard Bank, De Beer, Sab Miller and co, Zimbabwe has Strive Massiwa of Econet Wireless,Sudan Mo Muhammad, CEO Celtel, Egypt has Orascom Telecom, Ghana has Anglo-Gold, the first African company to be traded on New York Exchange market. Royal Caribbean Cruise is incorporated in Liberia. What does Nigeria have? It tells you that these countries have sound business practices for investors to pour their money into them. This is lacking in Nigeria and Transcorp.

Free Shares
========
<sub>Can you ascertain that all the shares of First Bank, Union Bank, Zenith Bank, Oando, Conoil, etc are actually
paid for? I am not sure I see where you are going here. Also, Ndi does not own mega shares in Transcorp,
7.2 million shares out of a possible 26billion shares its not "mega" by any definition. Now, Dangote's 1 billion
shares or that of Otedola's is really mega. So I suppose Ndi and the others looked away, why Dangote and
Femi Otedola just awarded themselves billions of shares each without paying for them, what are we really
really getting at?

Just like as the private placement target of N6billion resulted in about N18billion, I am predicting that its IPO
will come very close to meeting its target, that is if its not exceeded, then we can all exercise our jaws better.
Time will tell.</sub>


You sounded like a novice in this post. Are you telling me that these mentioned companies do not publish their annual earnings? Or does it mean that they do not have auditors? This is lacking in Transcorp because they do not have published earnings. One more point. Soludo is not board member of any of these banks, that’s what is lacking in Transcorp. Why is Dangote running his own IPO even though he resigned from Transcorp board.A comparison is based on two or more known conditions, since there has been no audit to determine the worth of Transcorp and to ascertain that these shareholder actually paid for their allotments , burden of proof still lies on you since there is no audit

I think people are putting their energy where their investments are . Good posts from widywendy

@windywendy,

Go on with your bad self. If you find the preceding sentence offensive, here is
my apology as well.


@adconline

I am going to ignore your crap from now on as you have just revealed your total
ignorance.

Iyke-D:

@windywendy,

Go on with your bad self. If you find the preceding sentence offensive, here is
my apology as well.


@adconline

I am going to ignore your crap from now on as you have just revealed your total
ignorance.

Hmmmm, very sad indeed _{***shakes head***}

Anyway, anyone else who's interested, let's continue the discussion. Does anyone have any other NSE stock ideas?