iyke-d

I am not a repository of knowledge, I wanted someone who would discredit every bit of my analysis, not to run away from them. This is why we don't progress in naija, can you convince a skeptic like me why you invested in Transcorp? Can you confidently address my concerns to make me see what you have seen. If this is your measurement of "ignorance" I am really happy to substitute it with my middle name.
good luck

NB. I hope this does not degenerate into name calling. Let's moveon.com

@adconline,

You got the wrong guy here. Please google all my posting on this site and show me where I have
resorted to calling any one names.

My job is not to convince you about anything. You have raised some points which I rebutted, you did
not re-visit them. Rather, you simply started spewing some more stuff about Dangote IPO which is
completely un-related to what we are discussing here. I wasn't making any head ways so I had to
bow out.

Also, you know you and I and a few others have re-hashed this Transcorp matter under a different
thread so many times - what's the use of wasting more bytes on the topic.

@windywendy
I chose to erase what I had composed initially to your response because I know that won't be the
end of it. That I sent a one liner does not mean I didn't have any problem with your tone and a couple
of your words. I can't change your position, and you certainly can not change mine.

Iyke-
_{NB. I hope this does not degenerate into name calling. Let's moveon.com} Please could you re-read this post to tell me where i said that you called names.
By the way, rebuttal is not telling me that if Transcorp had published earnings that I would still be a doubting Thomas or First bank and Union bank published earnings are not verifiable or auditable.

@adconline.

My point was for you to check my previous postings on other threads even. There was no
need for you to hope that I won't result to name calling. My MOP is that I bow out gracefully
if I am not making head ways. Its just that simple.

Transcorp Audited Earnings
===================
I said it at least a couple of times that this info is in the prospectus. Transcorp 18 months
earnings report were audited by KPMG and Pricewaterhouse, its there in the prospectus.
If I am mistaken and you can't find any reference to this, please call it to my attention. My
concern however is that this still will never be sufficient evidence for the critics because the
next question becomes how do we know that they really really performed the audit?

Ndi
===
I cited two examples that Raymond Obieri and Oba Otudeko were presidents of the NSE
while they were also chairmen or directors of other listed companies. As a matter of fact,
Goodie Ibru whom Ndi took over from as DG, also listed his Ikeja Hotels PLC where he was
doubling as the chairman as well.

I didn't hear any uproars. So what is different about Ndi's case? Was it because the company
in question now is Transcorp? Also you were dead wrong about the mega shares that she
owned in Transcorp, I called you on that but you simply skipped over to the next page as
usual. In spite of what you say, you appear to me as someone whose mind is made up about
Transcorp - you don't see anything good about the organization, and this is fine. But why
bother with a debate?

Let's face it has Soludo gotten in trouble with "Obasanjo" for mandating that three of its
directors (Ovia, Elumelu, and the First Bank guy) step down from the board of Transcorp
most especially given the timing of its IPO? Why not? I dare to venture an answer that
because he was simply following the CBN rules/guidelines. So why is it so hard for people
to fathom that it is possible that the NSE was following its own guidelines that also alows
for certain companies with 18 months of reportable earnings record to be give approval
to be listed? Whether this is proper or not or whether its proper for the DG or President
of the NSE to also double as chairman or director of other quoted companies should they
make an exception now because Transcorp is about to access the market?

Finally, I find your claim that because Nigeria doesn't have any mega companies and thus
don't need to attempt to create a mega company interesting. All the mega companies you
listed earlier, how did you think some of them got started? They just appeared from the
sky? If you don't attempt to do anything how do you know whether it will succeed or not?

ok thanks guys. Ive made my decision to buy a little. 15, 000 is ok to risk. U hope I wont regret not buying more

Guys,

Something to chew on, have posted this elsewhere but didn't
want to deny you guys the pleasure of . . .

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-2703.192.html

Oops, here is the right link.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200701260385.html

The difference between a rich man and a poor man is acting fast quick decission making. why some of you are delibrating some of us bought the private placement at N6a share. Already I have N1.5 equity per share. sometimes to be successful its all about the profit and taking risks. Big risk big profit, small risk small profit. So if you dont want to invest pls move on to sometime else.

Have you heard of Venture Capital Company. Transcorp is going to be the biggest VCT in Africa mark my word.

@Iyke -D
Goodie Ibru was never the DG of NSE. He was a former president.
Also there's no rule that allows companies that are 18 months old to access the market.
NSE listing rules require companies that are approaching the exchange for listing to have been in operation for at least three years. The companymust have made profit for the three years.
Much as I like the concept of Transcorp I cant hide from the fact that the reguatory authorities have broken their own rules and looked the other way in other to let them do their IPO.
This favouritism may just be the death knell for them as any government opposed to their principals can justifiably revoke some of the concessions already granted.

@Frankiriri,

can justifiably revoke some of the concessions already granted

This comment is so common that it risks being over-emphasized. For starters, can someone please list out the REAL concessions TransCorp have received (not  perceptions or politically motivated soundbites).

What concessions did TransCorp get that Mudabala did not? What about the sale of Abuja Sheraton, Eleme Petrochemicals, PAN, Nicon Insurance and the numerous oil blocks sold to foreign and shadowy Nigerian entities. TransCorp narrowly lost the bid for the goverment owned Clearing and forwarding agency, but no negative comment on the eventual winning bid. It seems that as long as the real identities behind the winning bid is shrouded in secrecy, it's ok. I haven't heard anyone complain of these 'national treasures' being given away.

The full cost of Nitel to TransCorp came to approx $1.5 Billion. I wonder how many foreign or local companies would have paid that much for a moribund company. This certainly is no giveaway.


We should all be enlighteened enough to seperate facts from fiction. The Privatization process is long overdue and certainly should be transparent and above board, but if we are to progress as a nation, we must not allow sentiments and politically motivated vendetta of our elites impair our judgement.

That will be akin to throwing the baby away with the bath water!

@frankirikiri

Thanks for the correction about Goodie Ibru. Nevertheless, what is the main difference between a
DG and the President of the NSE serving as chairmen of various quoted companies, I will think the
same perception problem will continue to be the case - I may be wrong.

Transcorp was initiated as a special purpose vehicle to jumpstart investment in the country - make
it a truly owned Nigerian company owned by as many as possible, I am sure you are familiar with the
usual spill by now, and as such certain waivers were granted in order for it to be achieved via listing.

While it appears that the NSE may have broken its own rules, its not entirely new or inconceivable for
governments to grant waivers/exceptions to private sector participants for projects/investments that
are deemed pivotal or complementary of its economic growth/development plan.

An over-simplified case in point is when some companies are encouraged to setup shop in a region,
(could be very impoverished regions) with the incentives of not paying any taxes for a number of years.
An argument could be rightfully made against such incentives if we were to adopt the same standards
for all companies - that is, that they must all pay taxes regardless.

Finally, its not everyday that the head of a country births a vision that leads to the formation of a mega
company like Transcorp. Obviously, this has been the primary reason while the NSE may have bent its
rules. The other question becomes whether at this stage of the game whether we should throw out the
baby with the water or not, frankly I don't even see how that is possible now as the train has already
left the station.

With TransCorp, the script is already written. TransCorp made a promise - short and long term, and there are big personalities here with reputations to protect / enhance.


I'm even more convinced following my conversation with a certain top executive of TransCorp during the recent TransCorp roadshow in London, coupled with the tenacity of the founding members particularly the  bank executives amongst them (and therefore heads of major investment houses/funds), this investment is destined to flourish.

In the short term, be rest assured that TransCorp shares will value at a min N15 p/s by EOY December 07.

In the long term, TransCorp is simply a  gold mine.

BTW, check out this report

http://www.proshareng.com/assets/user/pdf/report_transcorp_290107.pdf

@ Oshkosh
Let it be on record that I beleive in the Transcorp project but I am not comfortable with the risks involved right now so I am not investing.
At the inception of Obasanjo's regime he revoked the GSM licences which were granted to cronies of tha Abacha regime on the grounds that the licenses were not transparently awarded. The same arguement can be made by anybody taking over power from Obasanjo if he is not Obasanjo's ally.

I am not against the concessions that were granted to Transcorp. I am only saying that they provide an 'achilles foot" for enemies of Obasanjo to deal with him and his perceived cronies.
Mudabala did not come to the market to raise fiunds so there's no basis for comparision.

On the issue of Transcorps short term value, I beg to disagree (expect you are defining the short term as anywhere above 2 years). There's no basis for that projection.
If by any chance Transcorp rises in value within the next six months after its IPO it would be largely due to the scarcity of goods stocks in the face of the tremendous funds being pumped into the system by institutional investors like the PFAs. In that instance I would rather be fully vested in any other immediate income generating stock than invest in Transcorp as the price gain would tend to be general

@ Iyke-D
The position of president is more of a ceremonial one. The DG is more influential than the president, at least when it comes to the day to day running of the Exchange. Ndi herself recognised the dilema she was in and siad that she would resign at the appropriate time. Baba must have gotten SEC off her back because they were barking seriously at her.
If this offer were being conducted at the inception of a new administration I would feel more comfortable but with the seeming strenght of the opposition I am scared that the Transcorp apple cart can easily be upset.

@ Iyke-D
The position of president is more of a ceremonial one. The DG is more influential than  the president, at least when it comes to the day  to  day running of the Exchange. Ndi herself recognised the dilema she was in and siad that she would resign at the appropriate time. Baba must have gotten SEC off her back because they were barking seriously at her.
If this offer were being conducted at the inception of a new administration I would feel more comfortable but with the seeming strenght of the opposition I am scared that the Transcorp apple cart can easily be upset.

@frankiri

I do see your point but have to disagree. The fears about Transcorp political risk is just too
overrated. As far as I know, the fact is that there is little (if any concession) that Transcorp
will miss once Obasanjo is out of office. As it is, they have enough on their plates and there
are so many other business interests they can pursue without the need to procure license
concessions and the likes. They will find ways (willing equity partners) around all that.

Of course, there is no 100% certainty in anything (same goes for Dunlop or Cadbury), but
Transcorp is not going any where, on what grounds?

NITEL
------
That they were favored in the NITEL bid? Is someone telling me now all the companies that
were privatized previously in Nigeria were all fair and transparent, that is not until Transcorp
arrived on the scene? Most people do not fully realize that the NITEL bid actually ended up
costing Transcorp over $1.5billion if you factor the debts that they assumed. Additionally, a
lot of core NITEL assets like properties were excluded from the sale by BPE.

HILTON-HOTEL
------------------
If memory serves me right, there wasn't much of a whimper about the Hilton Transaction until
NITEL was finally added into Transcorp's portfolio. They stepped in when the initial winners of
the bid failed to pay up.

OIL Blocks
-------------
There isn't much to say about this, they participated in an open bid like others. They won four
initially but lost a couple for running afowl of DPR bidding/payment guidelines.

Even if the above reasons were not enough, the ownership structure of the company will be
so diversified at the end of the IPO (primary reason for the IPO anyway) that it will be a plain
nightmare for anyone to even want to begin to un-entagle. Now, of course if some serving
public officials are later found to have significant holdings for which their income can not justify,
by all means the government should move to confiscate those shares ONLY.

But then having said all that, my risks or what I consider as risks may be completely different
from yours, thus you are also justified in determining when you think will be the best time for
your to join Transcorp - even if that means paying a premium for its shares later, after all, one
wouldn't expect investors assuming the most risks to reap same as those joining in when the
perceived risks are less - I believe the market will address this at the right time.

Someone was telling me that the reason the closing date for the IPO was moved forward was that it was being grossly under subscribed and not meeting the projections. If this is so according to the fellow, the funds from prospective shareholders would be refunded.

Is this true? Does anybody have an idea of the figures or any rumours/facts to support or debunk this?

@iyke D
I sure hope you guys are right cos anything goes in Naija O. I sure would like to see the Transcorp project pursued to its logical conclusion. Even if a few big men get to make pots of money through it what is most important ton me is the overall effect on the economy.

In spite of this Transcorp still remains on my ' to watch' stock list.

@bizl4rilz
From the feelers that I have got the shares have actually been oversubscribed. There are indications that the subscription rate could actually be in the neighbourhood of 300%.
NSE rules specify that when an offer's rate of subscription is less than 15% the offer will be aborted and the money returned. There's no chance in hell of the subscription rate being that low.

@Frankiriri,

My hope is the same as yours - that is at the end of day, for the Transcorp experiment to
succeed. Let's take Nollywood for example, if Transcorp is able to fund movie production
facilities in Lagos/Enugu (I believe) and assist in its distribution, thus unleashing the genius
of our movie makers and the qualities of the movies, one can only begin to imagine the far
reaching impact such a development will have on the image of Nigeria - not to mention the
economic aspect of it all.

Finally, I must say I am very impressed by your knowledge of facts as it pertains to the
Nigerian capital market - I have learned a bit by simply reading your past 3 posts. More
power to you!

Thanks frank

U are welcome

frank thanks too

U r welcome

the only thing i can say to all this is what warren buffet says about investing-
'i never invest in anything i don't understand'
do we really understand what transcorp is about?do we really understand their business plan ?anyway it all depends on what one is looking for-quick returns or long term investment. i often wonder, though if transcorp and so many other quoted nigeruian companies can stand up to focused accounting methods.
also remember that daewoo (another chaebol) went bankrupt in the 1990s.

also, remeber Yukos in russia. the company's CEO got into Putins bad books-Putin declared that Yukos was owing billions in taxes, promptly imprisoned the CEO, and the govt took over the mgt of the company.

hey frank ,i sent ya email and yahoo messenger pm ,waiting for ya replies

I have replied them. Thanks.

hello frank,i did get two emails after joining your group,one is some form and another is in reply for my comments asking me to introduce myself,i did reply with self introduction ,then tried logging into the group only to see that my account is still pending admin approval ,what next now ?

You should be able to log in now. Your membership has been confirmed. I was having problems accessing the net but its better now. Welcome aboard.

Please send the file as an email attachment to my box. I will upload it on the web page.
Also lets have a photo

thanks frank i will do as said about the form ,but i need to discuss something with u one on one , i did add u to my yahoo messenger and sent some pm nuttin yet ,are u free now ?