Ovamboland:


False sir, many countries make steel with imported iron ore. Who do you think buys the ores from Africa and what do you think they do with it? Japan has practically no mineral but they import from all over the world mostly from people too ignorant or lazy to make use of it and turn out autos, electronics, ships for sale worldwide

Then why waste forex on importing what you have in your backyard. Nigeria is blessed with iron ore deposit.

AZeD1:

One bottle for you.
You can now 3D print steel yet people are making a case for reviving a 30 year obsolete plant with outdated technology.

Bros stop making noise about what you know nothing about...

Alezy:
NO one ever talks of Delta Steel Company which is bigger and far better than this Ajakuta

Ajaokuta is the father while subsidiaries like Delta steel and Osogbo rolling mill are the offspring. Delta steel and the likes are moribund today becauee Ajaokuta is not working. They are supposed to use steel produced from Ajaokuta but failure of the Ajaokuta project forced them to rely on scraps metal. Those companies are too big for scraps hence production becomes unsustainable. If Ajaokuta project come online(Prayer) other steel companies and coal industries will rejig...

LordAdam7:


I'm appalled to know that you're an Engineer and you're asking a question I expect to hear from market women and artisans?

About Refineries, have you heard about Dangote Refineries?

About Power, the only 2 coal electricity generation plants under construction in Nigeria are being constructed by the Private sector?

About Roads, how many Nigerians are prepared to start paying toll? It's a hotly contested topic, so until the polity accepts that toll is an acceptable alternative to cut the deficit in our road network, don't expect the private sector to swoop in. It's business not charity.

About Agric, again have you heard about Dangote Tomatoes, Erico tomatoes (that the senile President forced out of Nigeria), the many rice milling companies et cetera?

Maybe you should try gleaning more information than regurgitate fallacies. It's not all about what you studied during one 5-yr period of your life.

-Lord

talk about Dangote refinery has been on since 2012... Learnt that it was billed to come online mid 2018... Please can you help me with pix of its progress. Maybe I am a pessimist... But I dont think Dangote would invest $9 billion into this ubstable economy with ridiculous inflation rate. I have scurried google fir pix biko help me with one. I am not an advocate for goverrnment involvement in bussiness neither will I support zero gobernment participation. Investment such as refineries, rail, steel complex, power are capital intenssive investment... Most investors will avoid high risk environmemt like our. Most times investors are only encouraged when givernment bear the risk...ie build the capaital intenssive structures then they come in as partners... Saudis, UAE, Brazil, Malaysia, India and most developing countries...especially the 3rd world countries follow similar route. Ofcourse Chinese givernment owns all her major corporations. If we continue to preach the disgusting message of governmemt have no bussiness in bussiness then I think we are going to wait till eternity before we refine our oil and supply 24 hrs of electricity...

Ovamboland:


Not all investment is about profit and declaring yearly dividend. Strategic thinking will help you identify industry that is must have. A country that depends on others for all its steel, energy and ammunition is not really independent

A poor country is also dependent. You cannot become independent by wasting scarce resources on unprofitable ventures. Do you know that Nigerians in the North East, IDPs, receive foreign aid to stave off starvation?

If you concentrate on improving the business climate, then investors will see cause to invest in these "strategic" sectors. Simply pouring government money will enrich politicians while leaving you with hope and wishful thinking to feast on.

Nalikedis:
talk about Dangote refinery has been on since 2012... Learnt that it was billed to come online mid 2018... Please can you help me with pix of its progress. Maybe I am a pessimist... But I dont think Dangote would invest $9 billion into this ubstable economy with ridiculous inflation rate. I have scurried google fir pix biko help me with one. I am not an advocate for goverrnment involvement in bussiness neither will I support zero gobernment participation. Investment such as refineries, rail, steel complex, power are capital intenssive investment... Most investors will avoid high risk environmemt like our. Most times investors are only encouraged when givernment bear the risk...ie build the capaital intenssive structures then they come in as partners... Saudis, UAE, Brazil, Malaysia, India and most developing countries...especially the 3rd world countries follow similar route. Ofcourse Chinese givernment owns all her major corporations. If we continue to preach the disgusting message of governmemt have no bussiness in bussiness then I think we are going to wait till eternity before we refine our oil and supply 24 hrs of electricity...

I'm not going to scour for pics for you, because this is a very VISIBLE project that gets a lot of fanfare in the airwaves around every 6 months in the Lagos-Ibadan press.

Fashola has gone there. Emefiele has gone there. Even Osibanjo has gone there. In fact, when Osibanjo visited, he went with an entourage that included Fashola, Adeosun, and Ambode amongst many other other dignitaries.

Dangote is not using his money to build the refinery. The loan is a low-interest loan from several International bodies including the CBN. The Americans are training most of the workers as we speak.

Dangote is not the FG or Bi-Concept or any of those tepid private sector companies that take on more than they can handle. All the projects he has executed and is executing across Africa is more than the net cost of the refinery. The refinery will come onstream in 2018, barring any unforeseen shift. And then I'll wait to see the myopic individuals who'll still be courting the government to throw more money into our metal scraps called refineries.

Furthermore, I think you're not seeing the point. Our stand about government staying out of business is not for all governments, it is for the Nigerian government. When the Nigerian government gets the transparency and accountability issue sorted out, then they would get our support. That is it!

Till date, the FG has spent more than $100b frivolously on projects that are moribund, not functional, or have past their prime. All of that money wasted. No accountability, no transparency. No body, contractor, or company were sanctioned or put in jail. And the same FG with this shabby record is who you are asking to continue handling projects.

Really?

Do you think money grows on trees?

Or don't you know that we're about to borrow $29.9 billion. And instead of the money to go to roads, rails, and power; you're talking about plunging more money into Ajaokuta steel plant that has never worked, without any measure of transparency.

Is it inability to understand English or lack of a proper functioning brain that is making this difficult to understand?

-Lord

4Play:


A poor country is also dependent. You cannot become independent by wasting scarce resources on unprofitable ventures. Do you know that Nigerians in the North East, IDPs, receive foreign aid to stave off starvation?

If you concentrate on improving the business climate, then investors will see cause to invest in these "strategic" sectors. Simply pouring government money will enrich politicians while leaving you with hope and wishful thinking to feast on.

They like hoping oga.

It's their trademark.

They feel Nigeria is very rich because their politicians use their money to buy the most expensive gadgets and wines in the high-end malls in London and Dubai and choice properties in high-brow areas in Nigeria.

Last year, America spent north of $100b for only road maintenance. While with a budget of less than $2b for both works, power, and housing; they think we have enough money to throw N7.9b into a soak-away pit.

Later when the same government propose increased taxation through stamp duties, communication taxes, increased VAT, you'll start hearing from these same people that the government does not have regard for the populace. How would they have regard for you, when you tell them it's okay for them to waste your money on money-guzzling nonentities without accountability.

Seriously?

If I'm a politician, all I have to do is append figures to legacy projects, whether viable or not, award contracts to my cronies, ask for huge kickbacks, the cronies in turn do nothing because they expect they're being rewarded not asked to actually deliver anything, and they do all this with impunity because no body will ask how the money was spent afterwards. And believe it or not, I will receive multiple fanfare from the adults with kid brains on NL and on the streets.

This is why they say the leaders are a true reflection of the people. Just imagine the nonsense people are posting here, and when you correct it is as if you're an enemy of Nigeria.

Let the government improve transparency, accountability, trash the multiple taxation issue, and improve our Ease of Doing Business ranking if we wouldn't have a functional steel sector with strong PPP involvement.

You begin to imagine if the same people supporting this wastage have friends or relatives who are benefiting from the wastage, because that'd be the only rational explanation for the idiocy.

-Lord

BigBen10:


you can't jump to the technological age with first passing through the industrial age. The technological age relies on stable power, roboust communications networks and ability to machine or make tools (this requires steel).

Sorry, but you're wrong on the last point. I am personally involved in several of the most cutting-edge technological areas of today, and know at first-hand that none of them require the ability to "machine or make tools". You don't need anything of the sort to write enterprise software, train a neural network, carry out gene editing, or even to design and mask a microchip, and all of these areas are far more profitable than a 19th-century commodity like steel.

omohayek:

Sorry, but you're wrong on the last point. I am personally involved in several of the most cutting-edge technological areas of today, and know at first-hand that none of them require the ability to "machine or make tools". You don't need anything of the sort to write enterprise software, train a neural network, carry out gene editing, or even to design and mask a microchip, and all of these areas are far more profitable than a 19th-century commodity like steel.

I write software too and I know u need power supply , good internet abi. To do these use can to construct infrastructure for example electric pylons and underground pasaage for fibre optic cables. All these require steel.

yes even with the epileptic power supply u able to still write code but you may never reach your true potential in a country where you hv to wait for nepa to bring light and glo network to kick in before you code. running diesel is expensive. you can't compare ur productivity with some in US who has 24/7 power and internet access. Lastly if you want to real innovate u need to be able to make ur own tools except you just want to replicate what has already been done abroad.

BigBen10:

I write software too and I know u need power supply , good internet abi. To do these use can to construct infrastructure for example electric pylons and underground pasaage for fibre optic cables. All these require steel.

Steel which can be bought on the international markets for a much lower price than you'd get it by wasting more billions on projects like Ajaokuta. Just because something is needed doesn't mean you have to be the one to make it.

yes even with the epileptic power supply u able to still write code but you may never reach your true potential in a country where you hv to wait for nepa to bring light and glo network to kick in before you code. running diesel is expensive. you can't compare ur productivity with some in US who has 24/7 power and internet access.

What does any of this have to do with manufacturing steel? Do you think Hong Kong is a steel manufacturer? Is Bangalore famous for its steel? Since when did Silicon Valley start pushing out steel products? How does making steel make you a better software engineer, or help anyone better understand neural network architectures?

You're just piling up a bunch of non-sequiturs here, knocking down strawmen nobody ever put up: money wasted on Ajaokuta and other such uneconomic projects is money taken away from improving the electricity grid, the roads and the railways. You can't complain that these things are unreliable in Nigeria while arguing for taking funds away from them to waste on dead-end projects.

Lastly if you want to real innovate u need to be able to make ur own tools except you just want to replicate what has already been done abroad.

So by your reasoning, you need to be able to make steel to innovate in creating software, or to push the frontiers in genetic engineering? That's just nonsense. I've worked with actual innovators, people who are pushing the frontiers in AI and biomedicine, and none of them knows or cares in the slightest about steel and how it's made, because it is absolutely irrelevant. The way to innovate in a field is to learn the state of the art in the field you want to innovate in, not by getting involved in an irrelevant area which just provides one of many low-level materials you might indirectly need.

I suggest you do some reading on concepts such as "gains from trade" and "comparative advantage" to correct the faulty concepts you hold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gains_from_trade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

LordAdam7:
Let me chip in something, since we r actually having a decent conversation here.


-Lord

what do you think about the assertion that these Industries are puropsely being sabotaged because of their multiplier effects?
there has been recent research to proove that point

https://www.nairaland.com/3561889/africa-being-sabotaged-research-says

ZoneBslayer:

you're a wise and knowledgeable person.. unlike the myriad of political e-goons littered around here..exactly what I said in my earlier post..the blueprint of that steel facility was decommissioned as far back as the 1950s..just after the second world war..yet they keep pumping money into it just to steal it back...the previous administration realized this and wanted to sell of that money guzzling obsolete facility but as usual, ignorant Nigerians started screaming foul..

hello Zonebslayer
am researching the reasons behind ajaokuta's demise, and you made an intresting assertion-about blueprints being decommisioned- do you have any sources i can look that up?
pls do let me have them, you will be doing us all a huge favor.

[quote author=omohayek post=52688800]
Steel which can be bought on the international markets for a much lower price than you'd get it by wasting more billions on projects like Ajaokuta. Just because something is needed doesn't mean you have to be the one to make it.


What does any of this have to do with manufacturing steel? Do you think Hong Kong is a steel manufacturer? Is Bangalore famous for its steel? Since when did Silicon Valley start pushing out steel products? How does making steel make you a better software engineer, or help anyone better understand neural network architectures?

You're just piling up a bunch of non-sequiturs here, knocking down strawmen nobody ever put up: money wasted on Ajaokuta and other such uneconomic projects is money taken away from improving the electricity grid, the roads and the railways. You can't complain that these things are unreliable in Nigeria while arguing for taking funds away from them to waste on dead-end projects.


So by your reasoning, you need to be able to make steel to innovate in creating software, or to push the frontiers in genetic engineering? That's just nonsense. I've worked with actual innovators, people who are pushing the frontiers in AI and biomedicine, and none of them knows or cares in the slightest about steel and how it's made, because it is absolutely irrelevant. The way to innovate in a field is to learn the state of the art in the field you want to innovate in, not by getting involved in an irrelevant area which just provides one of many low-level materials you might indirectly need.

I suggest you do some reading on concepts such as "gains from trade" and "comparative advantage" to correct the faulty concepts you hold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gains_from_trade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage[/

Omohayek
I really appreciate your contributions on this discourse, I don't see why people fail to understand the dynamics of the Ajaokuta plant as being a conduit pipe for fund siphoning by politicians.
Simple elementary economics make me to understand that for a country to improve its foreign exchange earnings it should invest in production of items where it has competive advantage in terms of cheap cost of production and availability of raw materials component for the production of the finished goods for export and local consumption.
In the 60s/70s we were major exporters of cocoa, groundnut ,rubber due to the fact that we had comparative advantage on these items ,I don't see why we should be wasting scarce resources in this dead plant when such funds can be used to improve other sectors of them economy which will have direct positive impact on the masses if judiciously allocated .

omohayek:


You're ridiculous. Here, read the following before making any more silly comments.

https://medium.com/@doubleeph/ajaokuta-the-beginning-b45d2811885d
https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/03ABUJA2161_a.html
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/173/Sunk-Cost-Fallacy

this is great stuff!!!
from what i read, ajaokuta has numerous issues! that the US has graciously investigated (thanks WIKI)
1. we need a rail line from warri to Ajaokuta
2. we need to start mining our own coal,
3. we need to start mining our own iron ore,
4. we need a gas pipeline from south up there.
6. we need to make a special department of the EFCC and ICPC for this company
7. we need to get only experienced investors/ advisers for it, that is if we want any (and not American too i presume )
8. we probably need rail lines from where our coal is mined to the factory (probably Enugu to Ajaokuta)
9. we probably need rail lines from where our iron-ore is mined to the factory (there are a few in Kogi already)

note that the US actually expected it to work though, only that it will be inefficient because of all the corruption involved. hmmmm. maybe we should privatize part of it, sell shares to get the funds needed, that way, more people will have an intrest in it and the corruption wnt be easily swept under the carpet.

i think from all the details, it should have already started production, only political instability and the inherent corruption associated with political upheavals has kept it down. (not forgetting that wierd company SOLGAS - dem name dey sound like yahoo sef).

about the
Sunk-Cost Fallacy - hmmm, Brazil's Embraer was like our ish until it finally stood on its feet- now competing with Canada's bombardier, so look to the Bright side bro. Although it was part commercialized sha- maybe Govt should sell some shares of the company off- that means millions of Nigerians will be able to read its yearly report and question employing companies like SOLGAS.

thanks again bro Ohmahayek - you have exposed the boil, so we can treat it properly.

Flaghouse1:

BigBen10:

those innovators can only do their jobs if the basic industries function- check again- the software guy is only saying- if the basic industries are running well and we dont have to export iron ore and import steel, then we can start building on tertiary factories. its really about the building basic blocks of society and civilization-
roughly speaking, metallurgy led to petrochemical, led to power, led to electricity led to computers led to software

so ignoring metallurgy will make your country faulty- look again at the movers of innovation and see that they function best where these basics have been arranged-

and check out my post

https://www.nairaland.com/3561889/africa-being-sabotaged-research-says

shibiyu:


what do you think about the assertion that these Industries are puropsely being sabotaged because of their multiplier effects?
there has been recent research to proove that point

https://www.nairaland.com/3561889/africa-being-sabotaged-research-says

I maintain that nations would do what is in the best interest of their citizens. Nobody is father Christmas.

It is the job of the US government to do what is best for American interests. Ditto for the EU, China, Russia and every country under the sun.

Now if the Nigerian government is so daft and adamant as not to do (scratch that, even know) what is best for the Nigerian people, whose fault is that? The US government for intentionally making us to do what's in their best interest at our own detriment or the Nigerian government for foolishly accepting the directives?

Because it is the same Nigeria that is accepting the negative advise that told the US to their face that homosexuality has no place in Nigeria. So, we should bleeping own up to our failures than do what we do best--pass the buck.

The very first question to ask is what is Nigeria's industrialization master plan? Singapore is the finance gateway to Asia, has a robust petrol-processing industry, and a few other allied industries. Japan is on electronics, cars, et cetera. Should we talk about China, Brazil, Malaysia, Estonia, South Korea, Qatar, UAE?

All of these countries have industrial master plans identifying what key industries they want to develop comparative advantage for, and industries where they want to be competitive. They acted on these plans through their trying years and are now success stories. Every advice they received from the Anglo-American establishment to the West or the Communist establishment to the East was scrutinized according to their master plans, and anything that negated their plans was ignored.

That's why China despite a communist nation liberalized their economy and now they are than the erstwhile Soviet Union that gave them leverage on the global scene. The economy of Germany that was plundered and raided in two successive world wars that they lost is now larger than each of the European nations that conquered them in 1914 and 1945. Should we talk about Japan that despite having Hiroshima and Nagasaki is the largest holders of American debt?

Egypt was the first to abandon the blind Arab Alliance against the US and Israel, while not completely cutting ties with their Arab comrades. They have the largest economy in North Africa and a more formidable fighting force and industrialization (only dwarfed by Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Arab League).

What's our plan really, do we want to be a petrol-processing powerhouse? Take on Malaysia and Thailand in oil palm processing? Seize the African market for steel? Be the processing powerhouse for most of the raw materials mined in Africa? Be the financial gateway to Sub-Saharan Africa?

What is our game plan? Politicians like using buzz-words. In America it's local jobs, in Turkey it's Kurdish separatists, in Nigeria it's industrialization. And you see the people who know no better playing along with it. We have no plan, and that's why the IMF and China can toss us in any direction they want.

It's why you have people saying they want industrialization but actually applaud N7.9b being spent on a very inefficient edifice that is a symbol of corruption without accountability. We are not even improving our environment for industrialization to flourish. You can choose the name of your company and register it under 24 hours in Singapore. Good luck doing that in Nigeria. Here, the bidding process to build an infrastructure has to last 6 months. Let's not talk about how long it'd even last to build the infrastructure.

The issue of multiple taxation has not been sorted, and we're talking about industrialization. These are not things like power that would take years to fix. These are little things that we can fix in weeks or months by a government that is serious.

By the way, if we know what we are doing, why would we be looking to IMF for anything more than a loan? I'm still looking for the idiot who said it was a good idea for us to sign the agreement to reduce Carbon Emission when what we emit is so little compared to the size of the economy, and knowing that we need to emit more if we want to be industrialized? Till date we have no government-owned coal plant despite have lots of coal because some basta.rd wants to be in the good books of the neo-colonialists.

I've typed a lot, but I think the point I'm trying to make is clear. Nigeria should protect Nigerian interests. But like most things, the Nigerian government thanks to clearly deficient leaders and administrators are not capable of doing that.

-Lord

One has to trudge through lots of trash on nairaland to find a good thread. This is one of the few threads where I get to read good arguments.

We are being led by old hapless f'ools who keep wasting our little wealth on unprofitable ventures.


Thanks to Omohayek LordAdam et al. for making this an enjoyable read.

LordAdam7:

-Lord

maybe we should elect only someone that has an economic plan and team in place before the election runs?

i agree with the climate change thing and the stand of India, we are not adding as much co2 as the Industrialized countries are spending on xmas light alone.

i however seek solutions- faulty shakey ones, but solutions-
first is to accept that we must industrialize and only elect leaders that are interested in that.
secondly, i believe the basics must be fixed first- we need electricity and refineries and metal producing plants- the others will grow off of these. it seems most other industry are byproduct of these ones.- what do you think?

BigBen10:


you can't jump to the technological age with first passing through the industrial age. The technological age relies on stable power, roboust communications networks and ability to machine or make tools (this requires steel).

omohayek:

Sorry, but you're wrong on the last point. I am personally involved in several of the most cutting-edge technological areas of today, and know at first-hand that none of them require the ability to "machine or make tools". You don't need anything of the sort to write enterprise software, train a neural network, carry out gene editing, or even to design and mask a microchip, and all of these areas are far more profitable than a 19th-century commodity like steel.

errr- @bigben, thats supposed to be common sense bro- thats why its just not that easy to see.

you want to train a neural network on generator- ahhhhhhh which type? gene editing ? hmmm? bros naaaaaa!!!!
you have to forget about electricity(make it a permanent fixture) and forget about the basics by making them readily available before your innovation starts to make sense- them get God particle recently for Europe- na with Gen?

soory to sound off, so lemmi explain
a fool with an atomic bomb can kill more people than a great warrior with a sword.

electricity and the basic industries produce amenities that leverage your strength so that with little effort, you accomplish much.
the backbone of all you see are those useless skills to 'machine or make tools'

if electricity is fixed today, all our universities can teach ANN design because they can use computers- and can leave their computers to train these ANN overnight -
same goes for rendering other serious research, etc. we cant do these things on inverter or gen. we need people that can produce new tools for us locally immediately if the old ones break down and we need them to do it fast most-times. we cant wait.

but then lets use brain function
if you can concentrate on one thing, you probably will do it well - so if you dont have to worry about electricity, about phone network, about carbreakdowns and importing spare parts, about all these silly basic things, you will actually perform better.


its just like being a gold-digger all you want is to avoid the basics of read, go to school, etc- just aim for the cream, marry a rich guy/girl . people hate it instinctively because its clear and yet humans are wired to actually seek the easier way out. we all will gold dig unconsciously.

we all want to become developed and start gene-editing- not bad, some of us can- but we cant escape the industrialization trap. and those of us that are lucky to have the resources to build neural networks like you and I should make it a duty to point out to the Government that it will be a lot more easier for us all to start making ANN and doing gene-editing if the basics are fixed.

omohayek:

Steel which can be bought on the international markets for a much lower price than you'd get it by wasting more billions on projects like Ajaokuta. Just because something is needed doesn't mean you have to be the one to make it.


What does any of this have to do with manufacturing steel? Do you think Hong Kong is a steel manufacturer? Is Bangalore famous for its steel? Since when did Silicon Valley start pushing out steel products? How does making steel make you a better software engineer, or help anyone better understand neural network architectures?

You're just piling up a bunch of non-sequiturs here, knocking down strawmen nobody ever put up: money wasted on Ajaokuta and other such uneconomic projects is money taken away from improving the electricity grid, the roads and the railways. You can't complain that these things are unreliable in Nigeria while arguing for taking funds away from them to waste on dead-end projects.


So by your reasoning, you need to be able to make steel to innovate in creating software, or to push the frontiers in genetic engineering? That's just nonsense. I've worked with actual innovators, people who are pushing the frontiers in AI and biomedicine, and none of them knows or cares in the slightest about steel and how it's made, because it is absolutely irrelevant. The way to innovate in a field is to learn the state of the art in the field you want to innovate in, not by getting involved in an irrelevant area which just provides one of many low-level materials you might indirectly need.

I suggest you do some reading on concepts such as "gains from trade" and "comparative advantage" to correct the faulty concepts you hold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gains_from_trade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

obviously you hv a myopic view of the issue. I wish I can share the full vision with you but no time.

shibiyu:


maybe we should elect only someone that has an economic plan and team in place before the election runs?

i agree with the climate change thing and the stand of India, we are not adding as much co2 as the Industrialized countries are spending on xmas light alone.

i however seek solutions- faulty shakey ones, but solutions-
first is to accept that we must industrialize and only elect leaders that are interested in that.
secondly, i believe the basics must be fixed first- we need electricity and refineries and metal producing plants- the others will grow off of these. it seems most other industry are byproduct of these ones.- what do you think?

Who are the electorates? Is it not the same people who'd exchange their conscience for 1k or cups of rice?

The same electorates that would rather heap blames on Abuja than on our LG chairmen. How many of us have asked our LG chairmen how they use their monthly allocation?

Blue3k was trying to raise awareness for Lagosians to ask their government for more clarification on the Lagos Light Rail. The same people asking the FG what the hold-up is with the second Niger bridge were the ones calling him an hater.

I hope you can see where I'm coming from?

Which is why when people ask me what then is Nigeria's solution, I tell them change the structure. Until then, we'd keep running in circles.

The current structure is too complex and skewed for only one man in Abuja to enact the kind of development we're looking for. Because it is impossible with the current state of the polity for the president to only appoint competent people in each ministry and parastatal, and these people would in turn work with competent hands to drive policies.

The federal structure breeds inefficiency. Because I cannot in good conscience ask a civil servant not to embezzle money when a sitting governor is asking pensioners to sign off 60% of their pension (in case you're wondering, it is IMO state, and it's not an APC or PDP thing either. Some governors are wishing they had the guts to do that without massive protests rocking their states). Let's have some empathy here.

Our founding fathers agreed to create this country as a confederation of three federating units with a cabinet and a president. It worked for 6 golden years until one thug carrying a gun changed everything.

Now, everyone is running cap in hands to Abuja for handouts. And you have a sitting governor blatantly lying to the President so that his allocation will be increased (Ebonyi Governor promising Buhari that he would deliver Ebonyi to him in 2019). None of the state governors are talking about mining, because it's just easier to wait for alert from Abuja on the 28th of the month, and take the FG to court to share the ECA account.

And since they're guaranteed free money, they create the illusion that there is such thing as free money, and the populace buy it. Such that whenever election comes, money talks and bullshit gets tossed about so much that it is accepted (case in point GEJ promising to fix power in 4 years or Buhari promising to stabilize oil price or Fashola saying power can be fixed in 6 months). And after so much money is spent on the elections, such money has to be recouped with high ROI, which means sinkholes like Ajaokuta steel have to be reintroduced into the budget to cart away money.

I know a councillor who spent around 15-20 million on his election, his annual salary is supposed to be 5m for a 4 yr tenure, where will he get the balance from and support the lavish lifestyle our politicians live, and let's not forget settling relations and associates for their loyalty? Now you know why there's budget provisions for water boards, but you keep wondering where the water boards in the LGAs are?

You see, the structure promotes lack of transparency and accountability.

Buhari can shout anti-corruption because he hid his money and didn't spend it when contesting. Those who paid for the campaign are receiving kick-backs as we speak. If you think it's donations that fueled the private jet he was using throughout the elections, then you need to enrol in a nursery school.

It's not enough to say we should elect leaders who are interested in Industrialization. I don't think any president since 1999 was not interested in industrialization. They just didn't create an actionable plan for it, because the structure of the polity does not create room for that. When GEJ was building train tracks, the opposition said they were non-existent. Despite NLNG being a poster-child of what PPPs can do for government-owned establishments, people don't want to hear about PPP concessions that follow due-process of the refineries.

I've done a quick estimate in my spare time of how much it'd take to get uninterrupted power supply in Nigeria. Only the manufacturers that we have now need roughly 100,000 MW. It's not my figure, that's direct from MAN. Nigeria does not have the money to even install the plants with such cumulative capacity, no one will borrow us the money even. Let's not even talk about how long it'll take.

But if a presidential candidate comes to tell the populace in 2019 that Nigeria can't get uninterrupted power supply within 4 yrs, he has already lost the election before election day. And that's why we can't create a robust multi-decade plan for electrification of Nigeria, because we r all spreading half-truths and ducking our heads in the sand.

Nonetheless, pending when we are tired of complaining and actually seek the major solution to the myriad of problems we have, let's keep patching the holes by screaming against wastage and non-transparency. We'd need all the money they aim to waste later on when we are ready to kiss the truth. For now, we are not ready.

-Lord

Nice topic this is!

I appreciate the back and forth argument from proponents and opponents of the FG initiative to position Nigeria on path of industrialization.

I personally support Nigeria's self reliant in steel production for the following reasons:

1. Steel is gotten from iron ore that is found in commercial quantity in Nigeria. It means that God has already given to us freely what nations like Japan will spend fortune to buy before their industries can produce steel.
2. There are thousands of steel grades that can be made depending on processing and additives. Some applications require very cutting edge steels that countries like US ensures that some other countries do not get through trade. For example, there are certain classes of super duplex stainless steels that US do not want other countries to have because of fear of using it for weapon development.
3. It has multiplier effect. Basically steel serve as starting point for many other components and industries. Spin-off industries can happen because of the locally available steel at cheaper rates.
4. Availability of steel components: steel are not normally produced and stored on the shelf. What that means is that some of the steel items are long lead items that require a long while to deliver because the steel mills in the world always have orders placed by customers and the more complex the steel grade, the longer it take to get it delivered.
5. Skills: to be sincere, steel metallurgy is not as easy as some opponents have made us to believe. It is a cutting edge scientific endeavor if you consider the entire spectrum of the discipline. To open your eyes to this, consider the issue that the soviet rocket designers and engineers were having back in the days. Their rockets were just exploding like balloon. It took the development of a category of high temperature stainless steel (composition of which is top secret by the way) to solve this problem. Certain skills have to be available in country for strategic purposes. I hope you are following.
6. Economic: Reason this with me please. If your salary can only support one tenth of your needs, would you rather not do some of the things you would have paid for by your self. Would you ask for someone to teach your kids when you can do it yourself? would you rather not cook your food instead of getting a cook? would you rather not learn how to cook Chinese rice instead of visiting chinese restaurant to spend money that you do not have? would you rather not have a farm where you can cultivate rice yourself?
7. Employment: I will not say much about this. If you are a Nigerian, you already know.
8. Other countries: I recommend you go through the American industrialization. The foremost things that helped americans was their early development of metallurgy. It also saved their ass during the war. It helps them till today. Do you wonder how they have the largest economy? Do you think it is facebook? please! . Read about industrial revolution (of Britain). Engineers from recent nations to develop, like S. Korea, India, Brazil, etc will laugh at the comments of the opponents here.
9. Transportation: even roads require steel input. Your heavy earth moving equipment are made of steel. your bridges are reinforced. What of rail system. Do you know how much tonnes of steel will be required?
10. Export: African Market is large. In the next twenty five years, Africa will be consuming steel seriously. We have our opportunity today to develop ourself to the Japan of Africa such that we will be buying even iron ores from other African countries and processing it for subsequent export. This seems to be sure for us as at today. This is an opportunity.

Bishopking:
Nice topic this is!

I appreciate the back and forth argument from proponents and opponents of the FG initiative to position Nigeria on path of industrialization.

I personally support Nigeria's self reliant in steel production for the following reasons:

1. Steel is gotten from iron ore that is found in commercial quantity in Nigeria. It means that God has already given to us freely what nations like Japan will spend fortune to buy before their industries can produce steel.
2. There are thousands of steel grades that can be made depending on processing and additives. Some applications require very cutting edge steels that countries like US ensures that some other countries do not get through trade. For example, there are certain classes of super duplex stainless steels that US do not want other countries to have because of fear of using it for weapon development.
3. It has multiplier effect. Basically steel serve as starting point for many other components and industries. Spin-off industries can happen because of the locally available steel at cheaper rates.
4. Availability of steel components: steel are not normally produced and stored on the shelf. What that means is that some of the steel items are long lead items that require a long while to deliver because the steel mills in the world always have orders placed by customers and the more complex the steel grade, the longer it take to get it delivered.
5. Skills: to be sincere, steel metallurgy is not as easy as some opponents have made us to believe. It is a cutting edge scientific endeavor if you consider the entire spectrum of the discipline. To open your eyes to this, consider the issue that the soviet rocket designers and engineers were having back in the days. Their rockets were just exploding like balloon. It took the development of a category of high temperature stainless steel (composition of which is top secret by the way) to solve this problem. Certain skills have to be available in country for strategic purposes. I hope you are following.
6. Economic: Reason this with me please. If your salary can only support one tenth of your needs, would you rather not do some of the things you would have paid for by your self. Would you ask for someone to teach your kids when you can do it yourself? would you rather not cook your food instead of getting a cook? would you rather not learn how to cook Chinese rice instead of visiting chinese restaurant to spend money that you do not have? would you rather not have a farm where you can cultivate rice yourself?
7. Employment: I will not say much about this. If you are a Nigerian, you already know.
8. Other countries: I recommend you go through the American industrialization. The foremost things that helped americans was their early development of metallurgy. It also saved their ass during the war. It helps them till today. Do you wonder how they have the largest economy? Do you think it is facebook? please! . Read about industrial revolution (of Britain). Engineers from recent nations to develop, like S. Korea, India, Brazil, etc will laugh at the comments of the opponents here.
9. Transportation: even roads require steel input. Your heavy earth moving equipment are made of steel. your bridges are reinforced. What of rail system. Do you know how much tonnes of steel will be required?
10. Export: African Market is large. In the next twenty five years, Africa will be consuming steel seriously. We have our opportunity today to develop ourself to the Japan of Africa such that we will be buying even iron ores from other African countries and processing it for subsequent export. This seems to be sure for us as at today. This is an opportunity.

Aces for this mate!

I don't think that I have to add that most of us here only have problems against government wasting money on the Ajaokuta plant considering the wastage and lack of accountability. Not that the steel industry is not needed.

I haven't heard of anyone criticizing the Chinese company for setting up a steel plant in Aba.

Thanks for your contribution.

-Lord

LordAdam7:

If the electorates are ignorant and foolish, why cant we then aim to build a system that is clearly better and promote it ourselves?

If some-people decide to build a political party, or take over an ailing one, and build an economic plan that can be explained in broken english to the populace and can clearly show what they will gain,if the plan take real notice or 'cognizance' of the problems of tribalism and ethnic issues in Nigeria and the real state of affairs, dont you think this party will have a shot at it?

maybe na just dream, but e be like we really are lazy intellectuals. its too big for one person, but not for all of us. make we call am wazobia party , and make sure all the high sounding economic terms are explained in broken English- Nigerians are not that stupid bro, there isnt just a better choice because we the priviledged wnt sit down and try to build groups that can help provide a better option.

e.g. you remember when gtb broke into the banking sector and kept doing what others say was impossible? something like that. they gave us alternatives-
we the people that know should start building alternatives for our people, but in a down to earth manner.

~wazobia party !!! ~wisdom and strenght hehehehe
#wazobia party!!

LordAdam7:

about that uninterrupted power issue, errr, check on siemiens and GE turbine technology, there is technology that allows you to burn crude oil directly to produce electricity- since crude is cheap now, we should just use it to produce electricity na and wait till it gets expensive-
note that these systems are quick deploy solutions- under a year deployment things and have high efficiency and can be used as combined tech- turbine and thermal -
i do know the cost might be prohibitive, but turbines are kindof easier to maintain than other power producing systems -
check firms producing electricity in nigeria already, you will see quite a few turbines- we have the expertise to maintain them already.

just like aba people , when a shoe with gucci isd not making market, they will remove the gucci tag and put kadashian on it, to move market- the same with us- use the crude oil to produce electricity, sell the electricity to cameroon hehehehe.
#we_fit_do_am

shibiyu:


If the electorates are ignorant and foolish, why cant we then aim to build a system that is clearly better and promote it ourselves?

If some-people decide to build a political party, or take over an ailing one, and build an economic plan that can be explained in broken english to the populace and can clearly show what they will gain,if the plan take real notice or 'cognizance' of the problems of tribalism and ethnic issues in Nigeria and the real state of affairs, dont you think this party will have a shot at it?

maybe na just dream, but e be like we really are lazy intellectuals. its too big for one person, but not for all of us. make we call am wazobia party , and make sure all the high sounding economic terms are explained in broken English- Nigerians are not that stupid bro, there isnt just a better choice because we the priviledged wnt sit down and try to build groups that can help provide a better option.

e.g. you remember when gtb broke into the banking sector and kept doing what others say was impossible? something like that. they gave us alternatives-
we the people that know should start building alternatives for our people, but in a down to earth manner.

~wazobia party !!! ~wisdom and strenght hehehehe
#wazobia party!!

I can't say it's impossible. But it's an uphill task. The system is rigged against a party like that ever getting to a point where they can get power for a governorship seat, not to talk of presidential. Or maybe, the party would have to start from the very root of the polity--councillorship and rise through good governance (a bit like how ACN did).

And quite frankly, I'm very unsure about kicking it off. Nigerians are usually all talk and less walk. You'd be surprised that only 20% of us talking about this on this thread would be ready to stand up and make it happen. And you don't need a soothsayer to tell you, it'd be doomed if that's the case. If it was in Europe or Asia, the so-called youth party people have been bandying about would have already been registered and courting people's opinions.

If enough people come together to make it happen, I'd join when it becomes apparent that it isn't just a heat of the moment thing. But I would not be the one to initiate or convince people to be a part of its birth. That's just me.

And I should add that it'd be dual-pronged.

-Lord

LordAdam7:


I can't say it's impossible. But it's an uphill task. The system is rigged against a party like that ever getting to a point where they can get power for a governorship seat, not to talk of presidential. Or maybe, the party would have to start from the very root of the polity--councillorship and rise through good governance (a bit like how ACN did).

And quite frankly, I'm very unsure about kicking it off. Nigerians are usually all talk and less walk. You'd be surprised that only 20% of us talking about this on this thread would be ready to stand up and make it happen. And you don't need a soothsayer to tell you, it'd be doomed if that's the case. If it was in Europe or Asia, the so-called youth party people have been bandying about would have already been registered and courting people's opinions.

If enough people come together to make it happen, I'd join when it becomes apparent that it isn't just a heat of the moment thing. But I would not be the one to initiate or convince people to be a part of its birth. That's just me.

And I should add that it'd be dual-pronged.

-Lord

dual pronged? pls explain.

maybe it should be called wazobia youth party. naaaa Wazobia party works better.
our mascot will be errr a man and a woman running with a torch -naaa- like a a picture of a man and woman thinking? naaa, maybe a picture of people raising a pole and flag with wazobia written on it(to show the effort is neverending). and the colours will be errr green, blue and black. green for growth, blue because inspiration comes from the blues and black because it will be hard work - .

Bishopking:
Nice topic this is!

I appreciate the back and forth argument from proponents and opponents of the FG initiative to position Nigeria on path of industrialization.

I personally support Nigeria's self reliant in steel production for the following reasons:

1. Steel is gotten from iron ore that is found in commercial quantity in Nigeria. It means that God has already given to us freely what nations like Japan will spend fortune to buy before their industries can produce steel.
2. There are thousands of steel grades that can be made depending on processing and additives. Some applications require very cutting edge steels that countries like US ensures that some other countries do not get through trade. For example, there are certain classes of super duplex stainless steels that US do not want other countries to have because of fear of using it for weapon development.
3. It has multiplier effect. Basically steel serve as starting point for many other components and industries. Spin-off industries can happen because of the locally available steel at cheaper rates.
4. Availability of steel components: steel are not normally produced and stored on the shelf. What that means is that some of the steel items are long lead items that require a long while to deliver because the steel mills in the world always have orders placed by customers and the more complex the steel grade, the longer it take to get it delivered.
5. Skills: to be sincere, steel metallurgy is not as easy as some opponents have made us to believe. It is a cutting edge scientific endeavor if you consider the entire spectrum of the discipline. To open your eyes to this, consider the issue that the soviet rocket designers and engineers were having back in the days. Their rockets were just exploding like balloon. It took the development of a category of high temperature stainless steel (composition of which is top secret by the way) to solve this problem. Certain skills have to be available in country for strategic purposes. I hope you are following.
6. Economic: Reason this with me please. If your salary can only support one tenth of your needs, would you rather not do some of the things you would have paid for by your self. Would you ask for someone to teach your kids when you can do it yourself? would you rather not cook your food instead of getting a cook? would you rather not learn how to cook Chinese rice instead of visiting chinese restaurant to spend money that you do not have? would you rather not have a farm where you can cultivate rice yourself?
7. Employment: I will not say much about this. If you are a Nigerian, you already know.
8. Other countries: I recommend you go through the American industrialization. The foremost things that helped americans was their early development of metallurgy. It also saved their ass during the war. It helps them till today. Do you wonder how they have the largest economy? Do you think it is facebook? please! . Read about industrial revolution (of Britain). Engineers from recent nations to develop, like S. Korea, India, Brazil, etc will laugh at the comments of the opponents here.
9. Transportation: even roads require steel input. Your heavy earth moving equipment are made of steel. your bridges are reinforced. What of rail system. Do you know how much tonnes of steel will be required?
10. Export: African Market is large. In the next twenty five years, Africa will be consuming steel seriously. We have our opportunity today to develop ourself to the Japan of Africa such that we will be buying even iron ores from other African countries and processing it for subsequent export. This seems to be sure for us as at today. This is an opportunity.

Chief
Very good and educative summary of the discourse, my question to you is,would you advice we continue injecting funds into Ajaokuta for now ,if so kindly give cogent reasons so we can put this discourse to rest.
1bottle of Moët for you!!!

shibiyu:


about that uninterrupted power issue, errr, check on siemiens and GE turbine technology, there is technology that allows you to burn crude oil directly to produce electricity- since crude is cheap now, we should just use it to produce electricity na and wait till it gets expensive-
note that these systems are quick deploy solutions- under a year deployment things and have high efficiency and can be used as combined tech- turbine and thermal -
i do know the cost might be prohibitive, but turbines are kindof easier to maintain than other power producing systems -
check firms producing electricity in nigeria already, you will see quite a few turbines- we have the expertise to maintain them already.

just like aba people , when a shoe with gucci isd not making market, they will remove the gucci tag and put kadashian on it, to move market- the same with us- use the crude oil to produce electricity, sell the electricity to cameroon hehehehe.
#we_fit_do_am

I am actually talking about the cost of building the power plants. As far as I know, the cheapest type of plants to build are the natural gas-powered plants. My estimates put it at an average of $1.02b/1,000 MW, not accounting for contract inflation. Of course, private companies will build it cheaper.

While Geometric and GE are building a 1,080 MW at the cost of $800m (significantly lower than my estimate), Fashola spent roughly $2.5m per 1 MW for the Lagos IPP in 2013 ($2.5b for 1,000 MW if you extrapolate - https://www.nairaland.com/1474680/gov-fashola-spends-n400-million), at a time, when the FG spent around $1.7b/1,000 MW. As a side note, it is unfortunate that the same hawk-eyed corrupt oaf is the same person in charge of our power, road, and housing sectors now.

So you can see how lack of transparency and accountability screws our purse, and why uninterrupted power supply is an absurdity for Nigeria if things remain this way.

About using crude oil instead of natural gas, I don't think Nigeria's problem has ever been lack of resources to use for power-generation, whether it is gas, LNG (you'd have to read this very insightful article by malcom on the subject -- http://saharareporters.com/2016/05/17/fashola-let-there-be-light-why-energy-sector%E2%80%99s-gas-based-strategy-can-cost-nigeria-about), crude oil, solar, biogas, hydro, or even nuclear (although, I'd prefer we perish this thought).

Now the quick deployment is a pro, but if the cost of producing 1 MW of electricity is not low or at the same level comparable to the options we use currently, then the technology has priced itself out of our reach. Nigerians can't afford to pay more for power atm.

-Lord

shibiyu:


dual pronged? pls explain.

maybe it should be called wazobia youth party. naaaa Wazobia party works better.
our mascot will be errr a man and a woman running with a torch -naaa- like a a picture of a man and woman thinking? naaa, maybe a picture of people raising a pole and flag with wazobia written on it(to show the effort is neverending). and the colours will be errr green, blue and black. green for growth, blue because inspiration comes from the blues and black because it will be hard work - .

Dual-pronged in the sense that it will be as much struggle to wrestle power (play politics) as it would be to make and implement terrific policies. There are many brilliant politicians who are terrible policy makers, and there are many brilliant policy makers who are terrible politicians.

The few brilliant politicians who are policymakers are rare and far in between that you'd have a catch-22 situation if you ignored the other groups. You can't have one group without the other, so maintaining balance is very vital.

-Lord

vodutive:

At least if you start with an inefficient steel industry you can kickstart other industries and maybe your steel industry can crow large enough to install more efficient plants but one thing is for sure and this you can be sure of ......you cannot catch if you are not even in the race and you will never be in the race if you import.

You are right...

Trump promises to revive steel, during stop in Pittsburgh
This is one of the reasons why Trump won the US election.
Issues like this is what Trump and his supporters put together and they call "Make America Great Again". Is there anything wrong in making "Nigeria Great Again"? The Steel project is a right step in the right direction..

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2016/04/14/Trump-says-he-will-revive-Pittsburgh-s-steel-industry/stories/201604140107

deji15:


You are right...

Trump promises to revive steel, during stop in Pittsburgh
This is why Trump won the election.
Issues like this is what Trump and his supporters put together and they cay call "Make America Great Again. Is there anything wrong in making "Nigeria Great Again"? The Steel project is a right step in the right direction..

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2016/04/14/Trump-says-he-will-revive-Pittsburgh-s-steel-industry/stories/201604140107

Oga are the steel companies in Pittsburgh government owned?

Let's assume they are even. Is the American government and the Nigerian government at the same level of efficient use of money on projects?

All these bloody copy cats are the same people that scream anti-US rhetoric when it doesn't support them.

Any private company that wants to set up a steel plant in Nigeria is welcome. But looting of our resources through a forsaken steel project is not acceptable. If you think it is acceptable, then shame on you for being an harbinger of corruption.

-Lord