With the dates already set in 2019 for the elections and with 2/3 of the current administration’s tenure all but used up, we are in a position to gauge the possible re-election chances of the APC federal government and the possible chances of a PDP candidate.

The most recent NOIpolls (which can be viewed on www.noi-polls.com ) as of the time of writing is quite informative. Buhari’s strongest area of strength is in the North East zone. 80% of people there either approve of or strongly approve of Buhari’s performance thus far. Only 10% of people either disapprove or strongly disapprove of Buhari’s performance and only 10% are on the fence as they neither approve nor disapprove of his performance. This is bad news for Atiku as he appears very unlikely to be able to move significant support from his home zone as they appear locked in for Buhari. American pollsters tend to state that most of those on the fence tend to break for the challenger or they fail to turn up at all depending on the candidate put up by the opposition. The most Atiku (or anyone else from the NE) can obtain from the NE would therefore be about 18%.
The North West is the second most entrenched supporting zone for Buhari. 75% of people in Nigeria’s most populous zone is locked in for Buhari (as they either approve or strongly approve of Buhari’s performance). Only 7% are on the fence and 18% of people either disapprove or strongly disapprove of Buhari’s performance. 25% support being the maximum support obtainable from the NW. A candidate from the NW would probably be a most unwise choice for the PDP.

North Central is Buhari’s third most electorally strong zone and the third strongest area of entrenched opposition to a Buhari presidency. 46% of people either support or strongly support Buhari’s government. However, 43% however strongly oppose or oppose Buhari’s government. 11% of people in the North Central are on the fence. They may either vote for PDP or not vote at all depending on the candidate PDP puts up. In my view, this is the most viable zone from where to select a presidential candidate for the PDP (if PDP is going to choose a candidate from the North).

The SW is the area of strongest support for Buhari in the South. 37% of people approve or strongly approve of Buhari’s performance. However 38% disapproves or strongly disapproves. Importantly, 25% of people of the SW have no opinion either way. This is a very tricky position for Buhari here and his performance in 2019 will depend on how much PDP will be perceived to be an anti Yoruba party as well as the candidate (and his /her vice candidate) selected by the PDP as a competitor to Buhari.

SE is a most interesting zone. 19% of people have positive support for Buhari. 46% have entrenched opposition to Buhari with 35% on the fence. With APGA likely to present a presidential candidate in 2019 and with 35% of people in that zone on the fence when it comes to perception of Buhari’s performance, it is unclear whether a VP choice by the PDP will be enough to swing support to the PDP as opposed to a candidate of igbo origin from APGA. APGA provides a serious headache to the PDP (especially if the PDP chooses a Northern presidential candidate and even if the PDP selects an igbo as such persons vice presidential candidate) and the most likely source of comfort for a Buhari presidency.

The SS zone has the largest entrenched opposition to Buhari at 49%. 26% however have locked in support for Buhari. 25% are therefore undecided. In the absence of party specific to the SS competing with the PDP for the undecided 25% of the vote, it appears entirely logical for the PDP to select a person from the SS as its VP candidate that would help it lock in the 25% of people that have neither a positive or negative view of Buhari’s performance 2/3 into Buhari’s first term.

With the SE and SW having very high undecided voters, PDP will be in a very tricky situation. PDP has to contend with a very strong APGA party that is unlikely to sit things out as it did for GEJ in 2019. If APGA chooses an Igbo person as its main candidate for the presidency then chances are that the PDP will be competing with APGA for 81% of the vote of the zone that combines those on the fence and those that oppose or strongly oppose Buhari. The SW will also be tricky. It has a VP on the current ticket yet it has 25% of its people neither positively or negatively disposed to Buhari. The issue then is whether that 25% will be converted to positive support for a Northern PDP candidate that does not have a SW PDP vice presidential candidate.

Buhari is a weakened candidate from all accounts. He has not added to his core areas of electoral strength from 2015. However, he is likely to be aided by APGA’s intention to select a presidential candidate of igbo extraction and the possibility that a VP choice from either of the zones of the south is likely to depress participation from the large body of fence warmers from the non selected zones of the south.

Source:
https://m.thenigerianvoice.com/news/261129/the-2019-presidential-elections-and-the-current-noipolls.html

North Central is Buhari’s third most electorally strong zone and the third strongest area of entrenched opposition to a Buhari presidency. 46% of people either support or strongly support Buhari’s government. However, 43% however strongly oppose Buhari’s government

The Dullard is gradually losing support in the north without people even knowing the PDP Presidential flag bearer.

When I tell people that Presidnet Buhari has the NE locked even if Atiku runs they say it is a lie.

No matter who contests, Buhari will get about 80-85% of the votes from the NE and 75% of NW. He will probably get 50% of the NC.

With these numbers, it will take a miracle for him to lose in 2019.

Which leads me to say Although President Buhari has not done enough to merit a second term, he will win the elections in 2019.

dukie25:


The Dullard is gradually losing support in the north without people even knowing the PDP Presidential flag bearer.

So North Central is now North?

Hmmm

This election that has become the most talked-about topic in Nigeria is a done deal. Those who think President Buhari will rig before winning will be disappointed. They will have to wait till 2023. Atiku CANNOT see Buhari's shadow in the entire North and South-west. South-East will be shared, South-South can be given out.

Unless APC rigs, i dont see how Atiku will not win the 2019 presidential election

Atiku and Buhari will share Northern votes

Atiku will capture South South and South East

Both men will also share South West vote
#teamatikulate

dukie25:


The Dullard is gradually losing support in the north without people even knowing the PDP Presidential flag bearer.

Atiku cannot win 50% of the total states in NE.

Don't underestimate Buhari's popularity.

I don't buy it...Buhari has a strong presence online and as such I ask that this poll be recounted so his teeming supporters can participate without prejudice .

Lemme just say this.
We shouldn't allow our ancestors to rule us.

Hsj

Story, you guys fink is by poll


American Election dat ushered in Donald John Trump comes to mind

Nonsense poll.

The more reason I love statistics and statisticians.

Keep deceiving selves

Atiku bawo?

Too early to pay attention to all these....wait till middle of 2018...then we can talk

Northwest is 90% buhari.NW are die hard buhari than the NE .anyhow noting for Atikuchuku

Keep deceiving ur selves

see as i dey look your mumu story....

I would like to know how they got their data Cos I doubt the authenticity and veracity of this!!

Ok

This post was kindly brought to you by BMC

Mynd44:
When I tell people that Presidnet Buhari has the NE locked even if Atiku runs they say it is a lie.

No matter who contests, Buhari will get about 80-85% of the votes from the NE and 75% of NW. He will probably get 50% of the NC.

With these numbers, it will take a miracle for him to lose in 2019.

Which leads me to say Although President Buhari has not done enough to merit a second term, he will win the elections in 2019.

I agree with Mynd44 somehow here

Buhari can only win if PDP didn't present a good candidate...
People are not blind. Nigerians can't be fooled for the second time.
The suffering in the land knows know body
How many people are still shouting 'sai baba'
All the campaign promises... they have failed, esp Boko Haram.
Fight against corruption Opposition, Fulani herdsmen, Dollar rate etc

Mynd44:
When I tell people that Presidnet Buhari has the NE locked even if Atiku runs they say it is a lie.

No matter who contests, Buhari will get about 80-85% of the votes from the NE and 75% of NW. He will probably get 50% of the NC.

With these numbers, it will take a miracle for him to lose in 2019.

Which leads me to say Although President Buhari has not done enough to merit a second term, he will win the elections in 2019.

even in previous elections, Buhari has always had NE and NW on lockdown, but he failed four times for a reason.

Aside Kaduna and maybe Nassarawa, I doubt the actual states in NC that gave Buhari support will be pro-APC considering the atrocities APC has committed in those states...specifically Benue and Kogi states

Also, do not discount SW, they were also instrumental to his win.

Bear in mind, the strikes that have happened this year will also have impacts on the opinion of people

By next year, we will get a clearer picture of how things will pan out

PDP is a hugely damaged brand and fielding another useless product like Atiku for 2019 will finish them off. If Atiku is the least thief that PDP can put forward then I urge them to do so... They should also add that loud mouth thief with bleached lips from Ekiti as VP.... If Buhari doesn't win before 9am on election day then make I no why..... Useless party with useless candidates.

Ride on Buhari.... We the true progressives are solidly behind u sir

NOI polls i trust might be a government agency, Nevertheless, for candidate Buhari, this might spell doom because there will be lots of exposes as we move towards election, cross carpeting and voters education thereby shrinking his votes. The dynamics of the 2015 elections would be quite different, he would be expected to defend his mandate this time on a popular TV debate, his health might play a major card since he would be required to travel around the country in a limited time and rumour mills would sure grind. Good luck to whatever candidate eventually emerges but i still feel Nigeria deserves the best on the long run.