Am sure PDP cannot pick Atiku as there presidential candidate if they do they will fail in the north and southwest and partially in the east, ppl don't just like Atiku he does not behave clean and act like a snake... He won't call a spade a spade and always looking for a room to win people over.... He is full of himself.... Mark my word it will be tough to unseat president Buhari but it's not impossible

When Ekiti election was held, Fayose no let us hear word but see how silently he was dealt with, when he rig to get to power it was shown live and proves of moves where shown.... PDP are claiming Apc rig the election but they can't fight the prove cos they know they are as guilty as charcoal... Democracy is not good for Nigeria mark my word

Anazp:
this time taraba gombe adamawa not too sure for him

my error I didnt realise Adamawa and taraba were NE states, . Nonetheless my calculation already discounted those states because I had wrongly classed them as middle belt/NC which I assumed he would lose because of the Herdsmen and PDP. Gombe always votes for Buhari irrespective of candidates for governor or house/senate but even then Gombe is like Ekiti they only have 400k TOTAL voters.

This a is a trend in the North if you look at Buharis 4 presidential campaigns results. even when they vote for pdp or other parties in the senate, house and governorship elections, they always voted for Buhari in the presidential elections. Kano is a good example, Kano has always voted overwhelmingly for buhari irrespective of who becomes (or which party produces) the governor.

People need to understand that Buhari does not need to win states. The requirement is overall majority of votes AND 1/4 of votes in 2/3rds of states. No matter what happens Buhari will win in the North hands down, the states he may lose in the north do not have enough voters to dent his votes in his stronghold which are the places with the highest number of voters. For instance the total number of 2017 voters in taraba was 600k, adamawa 600k, gombe, 400k, Buharis margin of victory in Kano was 1.7m, in katsina 1.2M, you see where I am going? See this https://oblongmedia.net/2017/12/17/2015-presidential-election-results-by-geo-political-zones/ His majority in the NW in 2015 was 5.7m, the total number of voters in the entire NE was 3.5m. So If everybody in taraba, adamawa and gombe votes for PDP (which will never happen) Kano or katsina alone will take care of them and he still has Sokoto, Zamfara, bauchi, Borno in reserve, these are states that always vote Buhari 10 to 1 which is approximatrly another 2.5 million votes to play with. So as long as he holds SW and manages to retain his majority in one of Kano and Kaduna then it is mathematically impossible, Buhari cannot be beaten. the battle ground is not the North it is SW and i cant see PDP making inroads this time around with the Tinubu/Osinbajo factor especially as Atiku (the only candidate that can make inroads into the SW is a sworn enemy of OBJ who is the key to the SW for PDP.


https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418
https://www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_general_election,_2015
https://oblongmedia.net/2017/12/17/2015-presidential-election-results-by-geo-political-zones/

geometricaxis:


my error I didnt realise Adamawa and taraba were NE states, . Nonetheless my calculation already discounted those states because I had wrongly classed them as middle belt/NC which I assumed he would lose because of the Herdsmen and PDP. Gombe always votes for Buhari irrespective of candidates for governor or house/senate but even then Gombe is like Ekiti they only have 400k TOTAL voters.

This a is a trend in the North if you look at Buharis 4 presidential campaigns results. even when they vote for pdp or other parties in the senate, house and governorship elections, they always voted for Buhari in the presidential elections. Kano is a good example, Kano has always voted overwhelmingly for buhari irrespective of who becomes (or which party produces) the governor.

People need to understand that Buhari does not need to win states. The requirement is overall majority of votes AND 1/4 of votes in 2/3rds of states. No matter what happens Buhari will win in the North hands down, the states he may lose in the north do not have enough voters to dent his votes in his stronghold which are the places with the highest number of voters. For instance the total number of 2017 voters in taraba was 600k, adamawa 600k, gombe, 400k, Buharis margin of victory in Kano was 1.7m, in katsina 1.2M, you see where I am going? If everybody in taraba, adamawa and gombe votes for PDP (which will never happen) Kano or katsina will take care of them and he still has Sokoto, Zamfara, bauchi, Borno in reserve, these are states that always vote Buhari 10 to 1 which is approximatrly another 2.5 million votes to play with. So as long as he holds SW and manages to retain his majority in one of Kano and Kaduna then it is mathematically impossible, Buhari cannot be beaten. the battle ground is not the North it is SW and i cant see PDP making inroads this time around with the Tinubu/Osinbajo factor especially as Atiku (the only candidate that can make inroads into the SW is a sworn enemy of OBJ who is the key to the SW for PDP.


https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418
https://www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_general_election,_2015

this is nonsense. buhari won the core north three times what happened? he still lost. look the battleground this time is the north central. plateau benue nasawara fct kwara kogi. he won all except the fct in 2015. the southwest this time isn't too sure. if pdp can elect a quality northern presidential candidate plus a quality yoruba vice then the soyth eest could be tough. hey tinubus influence stops in Lagos. he struggled in ekiti and ondo. yorubas are not like the northerners that vote one wat. in 2015 what was the gap between Jonathan and buhari n lagos? the margin? very close. and then buhari was very popular. but look at the economy and security today.

Anazp:
this is nonsense. buhari won the core north three times what happened? he still lost. look the battleground this time is the north central. plateau benue nasawara fct kwara kogi. he won all except the fct in 2015. the southwest this time isn't too sure. if pdp can elect a quality northern presidential candidate plus a quality yoruba vice then the soyth eest could be tough. hey tinubus influence stops in Lagos. he struggled in ekiti and ondo. yorubas are not like the northerners that vote one wat. in 2015 what was the gap between Jonathan and buhari n lagos? the margin? very close. and then buhari was very popular. but look at the economy and security today.

Figures dont lie, dont let your bias and sentiment cloud what is in front of you. i have given you the links to the results for the 4 elections Buhari has participated. look at them.

See this https://oblongmedia.net/2017/12/17/2015-presidential-election-results-by-geo-political-zones/ His majority in the NW in 2015 was 5.7m, the total number of voters in the entire NE was 3.5m. So much for battle ground!! i am telling you Nuhari has always won the north, he did not win 3 times because no south zone voted for him until Sw in 2015. His victory came because SW switched and backed him, Sw is the battle ground and there is no inroad for PDP in 2019, you can argue all you like. Elections are a game of numbers, its about counting people. Do PDP have the people? NO! There are no extra voters in the SS or SE, where will they get the votes from outside SW? You cannot count what does not exist!!!

let me tell you what is nonsense to be listing vicories in states that have small no of voters and thinking it will make a difference. You mention Ekiti, the margin of victory in ekiti in any election whether governorship or presidential is around 50k, you think thats makes a difference to someone who wins by millions in other states? a presidential candidate does not need to win a state to become president, do you not understand how this thing works? it is about OVERALL majority not who wins states, especially states will small number of voters.

You will be shocked when I tell you that even Lagos with it's 1.4 voters will not matter in 2019, why? because what matters is the margin. Lagos will be tight so the margin will only add or subtract 100-200k from your total numbers. The reason why the SW and lagos mattered is that SW had never previously voted for buhari, so the SW swing added 4m to Buhari's margin in 2015. Buhari won by 2.7m votes, that came from the SW. Going forward PDp cannot dent that vote in the SW to the level it was pre 2015 which is what they will need to win the election. When a man has states that will deliver victories of + 1m, talking of Ekiti (50K) and Ondo (25k) or Kwara and Kogi is chump change and BTW Buhari won Ondo.

You say Tinubu does not matter, ask Buhari, Tinubu is the only reason Buhari is president today!!! he has said it many times without Tinubu he will still be winning in the North and failing to get the presidency. Dont confuse Tinubus acceptability in local SW politics and Tinubus leadership of the SW on the national stage....2 diffrent things. In local SW politics we dont like Tinubu interfering but nationally, he is (like him or not) the leader of the SW.

So my friend when you say I am talking nonsense, are my figures wrong? election is arithmetic, we are counting people, 1 + 1 is always 2 whether you are ibo, hausa, yoruba, fulani or efik, pdp or Apc. where are your numbers to disprove anything i have said? where are the people you want to count to defeat Buhari? because if it is 50k, 100k, 150k margins of victory you want to be counting in Ekiti, Kogi, Kwara, Gombe , taraba, adamawa etc you will cry come 2019 o! I have said it elsewhere, it is very possible APC will lose the senate and house in 2019 but on the presidential front, The SW/combination alliance is undefeatable, PDp simply dont have the numbers in the states they are likely to take back!

With a name like that He should be contesting for Almajiri leadership!

DEXTROVERT:
Only
Atiku
Can
Defeat
Buhari
Mark
My
Words

Others
Are
Agent
Of
APC sent to distabilize PDP

Atuku is politically outdated, if Atiku is surely the last man presidential candidate of PDP, then automatically you are giving Buhari huge opportunity for second term

donkaz2:
After making secondus the party Chairman I was expecting a Non-Northerner as the presidential candidate of the PDP but am surprise all the options of candidate are from the north, Duke no dey their agender.... Yet one mumu will say northerners are not in charge in Nigeria... Take it or leave it the north are in charge... Back to the matter Damkwambo is a great man, I know what he did to the kaleri boys of Gombe and how he gave the army order to protect coppers and all foreign bodies when election went wrong during Cpc vs PDP but I smell trouble in PDP I just hope their leaders are wise, next mother their will be factions from the party, say atiku faction and Saraki faction lolz

Brother but some failed governors re claiming they can't command even police under their jurisdictions to protect lives

PDP has a presidential aspirant in each of all the northern states except few.

Kwara - saraki
Kaduna - makarfi
Gombe - dankwambo
Adamawa - atiku
Sokoto - tambuwal
Benue - David Mark
Jigawa - sule lamido

Susu888:
.





Don’t make me laugh pls , u jst go ahead nd keep consoling urself with that. Even his opponents know that they’ve lost nd hv all committed political suicide especially the northern ones! They were not jst dumb but stupid to hv opposed buhari nd all they gained or were holding on to will be washed away by this giant tsunami of man. We northerners jst dey look while people like u keep fantasizing nd tlking trash out of sheer ignorance or is it jst denial una eyes go clear well well !!

@ the bolded...

that is the problem in this country!
every region is thinking of its own people and hiding info and insulting other regions...

NOW READ my comment again: you e dee that i said "IF" they can remove Buhari.

i refuse to insult you because its a stupid thing to do. We are trying to build one better nation not fight.

Ameko4ever:
If wishes were horses, I would have closed my eyes and open it just to see @HEDankwambo becoming the next president of our country. I'm not a politician, but the unusual works he's done in Gombe speaks so much of him. I wish him success in his political career.

I may not know much of this man, but peace enjoyed by the good people of Gombe despite almost 50/50 Christian/ Muslim plus development in the state is enough to testify of his religion / Ethnics tolerance, leadership quality and wisdom.
He will have my vote , though am an APC man.