Lagos, Bayelsa, Rivers may be submerged in 50 years
By Paul Okunlola and Emmanuel Badejo

Seminar sponsored by the CCDI and Heinrich Boll Foundation, July 4, 2007

SHOCKING statistics unfolded by experts yesterday gave hints that Nigeria could lose up to one third of its entire land area over the next 50 years. The doomsday prediction can, however, be averted if appropriate measures are taken to tackle the growing consequences of climate change.

Put in stark terms: Rising sea levels from warming temperatures may see the whole of Lagos, Bayelsa and Rivers states go under water, with the inundation also covering up to half of Cross River and Delta states. And up North, advancing desert climate could render economic activities impossible in vast areas stretching across the region from Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states in the North-West, to Yobe, Borno, Adamawa and Taraba states in the North-East.

Though current estimates on how many people would be adversely affected in such scenario are not available, some studies conducted in 1992 had shown that up to six million people would be displaced by sea level rise of up to two metres alone.
But the impact, as several studies showed at a meeting on the extent of the global problem in Lagos, would extend far beyond land losses. Going by experts’ revealing on the issue, the impacts would also include significant threats to the nation’s economic nerve centre in the Niger Delta and large populations of subsistence farmers who would lose farmlands to polluted soils. Also to be expected would be loss of livelihood to fishing communities that would be compelled to relocate from their natural terrain; internal refugee problems from the displacement of large populations from affected areas; as well as worsened poverty levels due to the extent of impact on already poor communities.

But the threat is actually basically global. CCDI’s Kofo Adeleke, warned that by the end of this century, temperatures could rise by as much as four degrees Celsius, placing as much as half of the world’s species under threat of extinction.  “Any increase in temperatures that result in a rise in sea levels of above two metres would be clearly unmanageable,” said Dr. Stefan Cramer, of the Lagos-based Heinrich Boll Foundation.

Executive Director, Nigerian Conservative Foundation (NCF), Prof. Emmanuel Obot, said that global warming, arising from the climate change, would precipitate increase in the incidents of drought and flooding. In fact, Lake Chad, hitherto one of the largest lakes in the world has already dried up, due to the increase in global temperatures over the last few decades. The essence of the findings, Obot said, is that it was time Nigeria began paying attention to the emission of carbon-dioxide with a view to reducing levels and encouraging planting of trees.

Rising sea levels have definitely occurred through climate change, which has affected agriculture, fishery, petrol chemical industries and the human habitat. The fears of possible submergence of large portions of the Lagos Ocean front and other segments of Nigeria’s fragile coastline are not new. The occurrence of the first major sustained series of ocean surges in the period 1990-1991 had triggered a fierce debate among the academic community over the likelihood of Victoria Island in particular, going under the surging ocean waves. In subsequent years, huge sums of money have been spent on containing the advancing ocean through sand replenishment measures adopted to re-establish the popular Victoria beach on the Island.

Top among other interventions, she stressed, is the immediate undertaking of a new assessment of impacts of sea level rise on Nigeria’s coastline, in view of new data and future projections released this year by international scientists under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
http://finimanaturepark.org/lagos-bayelsa-rivers-may-be-submerged-in-50-years/

Sea Surges Could Uproot Millions in Nigeria Megacity
Reuters
November 19, 2008 | Nick Tattersall | LAGOS (Reuters)

Sea Surges Could Uproot Millions In Nigeria Megacity
Millions of people in Nigeria could be displaced by rising sea levels in the next half-century as ocean surges swamp some of t Africa’s most expensive real estate and its poorest slums, scientists say.

Africa’s most populous nation, stretching from the southern fringe of the Sahara to the Gulf of guinea, could come under triple attack from climate change as the desert encroaches on its northern pastures, rainfall erodes farmland in its eastern Niger Delta and the Atlantic Ocean floods it southern coast.

But the greatest concern is the sprawling commercial capital Lagos, one of the fastest growing cities in the world, spread over creeks and lagoons and dangerously close to sea level.

“Lagos is a megacity with 15 million people, half of them at two meters above sea level, and that puts them at risk as hardly any other big city in the world.” Stefan Cramer Nigeria Director for Germany’s Heinrich Boll Foundation think-tank and an adviser to the Nigerian government on climate change, said.

Speaking at the launch this week of a Nigerian documentary on climate change, Cramer said most scientists predict sea levels would rise by one meter over the next 50 years or so.

“In 50 years with a one-meter sea level rise, two million or three million people would be homeless. By the end of the century we would have two meters and by that stage Lagos is gone as we know it” he told Reuters.

Mansions, Shanties at Risk
Demand for housing has exploded at both ends of the market. Shantytowns where wooden huts perch on stilts have grown into the lagoon while engineers reclaim land to build multi-million dollar villas and apartments on the exclusive Lekki peninsula.

“Most of the construction in Lekki is bound to fail because it is built on sand, which has never been properly consolidated” Cramer said. “There’s only one option: moving to higher ground.”

Scientists predict heavier rains and higher sea levels could wipe out much of Bayelsa, one of the three main states in the Niger Delta, a vast network of mangrove creeks, which are home to isolated villages and to Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry.

"no. . .Where not sinking, The water's rising" lol a quote from one of my dumb friends. . . .anyway nice read

Nigeria needs to learn from the experience of Holland. The whole of the country is below sea level, but they have found ingenious ways to build dykes and other fortifications; they are also foremost when it comes to floating buildings that rise and fall with the tides.

For decades, we have been blindly mounting concrete assets in our most vulnerable areas. Lekki is an accident waiting to happen, the area is worth billions in property investments, but nothing serious is done about the annual excursions of the waves at barbeach. One day, it will be too late.

In the Niger, there are numerous dangers to health, from acid rain to gas flaring.  In 2005, the Federal High Court of Nigeria ordered the cessation of gas flaring, because it violates the "guaranteed constitutional rights to life and dignity". Has gas flaring stopped?
Not only has gas flaring been linked to cases of asthma, leukemia and other cancers in the ND, it also coats the soil surface and kills the vegetation.
The amount of gas we flare is equal to 40% of the Africa's total gas consumtion . The most silly part of gas flaring, is that we lose $2.5 billion per year, money that could be used to fix all of our coastal problems, from Lagos to Bakassi.

Beaf:

Nigeria needs to learn from the experience of Denmark. The whole of the country is below sea level, but they have found ingenious ways to build dykes and other fortifications; they are also foremost when it comes to floating buildings that rise and fall with the tides.
For decades, we have been blindly mounting concrete assets in our most vulnerable areas. Lekki is an accident waiting to happen, the area is worth billions in property investments, but nothing serious is done about the annual excursions of the waves at barbeach. One day, it will be too late.

In the Niger, there are numerous dangers to health, from acid rain to gas flaring. In 2005, the Federal High Court of Nigeria ordered the cessation of gas flaring, because it violates the "guaranteed constitutional rights to life and dignity". Has gas flaring stopped?
Not only has gas flaring been linked to cases of asthma, leukemia and other cancers in the ND, it also coats the soil surface and kills the vegetation.
The amount of gas we flare is equal to 40% of the Africa's total gas consumtion . The most silly part of gas flaring, is that we lose $2.5 billion per year, money that could be used to fix all of our coastal problems, from Lagos to Bakassi.

Some possible misinformation. Not Denmark but Netherlands (Holland).

Mr Fire:

Some possible misinformation. Not Denmark but Netherlands (Holland).

Thanks. Its edited now.

This is the most cogent reason why I was asking hard questions about the Eko Atlantic City. In my own research I found out that the city will have a sea wall (Levy) about 7 meters high. I wondered whether the planners considered this future sea level scenario.

Secondly, I had thought that the entire Lagos state needed a "comprehensive" sea wall that protects the whole state against future sea level increases. This is what I expected from a well thought out physical planning strategy (urban, regional, state and even national to cover places like Niger delta). I have not seen any such plans yet.

Nigeria being what it is, people are more interested in mega projects even if they aggravate the existing problems.

Onlytruth:

This is the most cogent reason why I was asking hard questions about the Eko Atlantic City. In my own research I found out that the city will have a sea wall (Levy) about 7 meters high. I wondered whether the planners considered this future sea level scenario.

Secondly, I had thought that the entire Lagos state needed a "comprehensive" sea wall that protects the whole state against future sea level increases. This is what I expected from a well thought out physical planning strategy (urban, regional, state and even national to cover places like Niger delta). I have not seen any such plans yet.

Nigeria being what it is, people are more interested in mega projects even if they aggravate the existing problems.

Onlyfalse, the same folks from Holland referenced above as the best in the world are in charge of fortification at Eko Atlantic. Eko Atlantic fortification was designed way above specification to confront the worst weather challenges.

And please go sell the rest of your rubbish to your village folks. Trust me, they need your brilliant ideas over there.

No!!!

If Bayelsa and Rivers state is submerged, guess where they will be coming in droves It will be Alaigbo! Alaigbo is way too crowded as it is.

Onlytruth:

This is the most cogent reason why I was asking hard questions about the Eko Atlantic City. In my own research I found out that the city will have a sea wall (Levy) about 7 meters high. I wondered whether the planners considered this future sea level scenario.

I believe they did because testing was done out in the netherlands for this.

Onlytruth:

Secondly, I had thought that the entire Lagos state needed a "comprehensive" sea wall that protects the whole state against future sea level increases. This is what I expected from a well thought out physical planning strategy (urban, regional, state and even national to cover places like Niger delta). I have not seen any such plans yet.

I did read some time back of plans on a sea wall . . . well I think that might have been this Eko Atlantic project but this only stretches for about 7Km. So I am guessing the State will have to come up with a way of tackling with that issue  on its own.
I don't see much happening in the delta area in this. But I hope I am wrong!

Onlytruth:
Nigeria being what it is, people are more interested in mega projects even if they aggravate the existing problems.

Unfortunately!

EzeUche:

No!!!

If Bayelsa and Rivers state is submerged, guess where they will be coming in droves It will be Alaigbo! Alaigbo is way too crowded as it is.

Nigerian environment is poor everywhere, from North to South; whether it is from desert encroachment or ocean surges or decease brought on by these changes.
It would surprise you to find that the worst erosion in the country occurs in Igbo land, that needs to be urgently tackled as well, so xenophobic attitudes are self defeating.

Beaf:

Nigerian environment is poor everywhere, from North to South; whether it is from desert encroachment or ocean surges or decease brought on by these changes.
It would surprise you to find that the worst erosion in the country occurs in Igbo land, that needs to be urgently tackled as well, so xenophobic attitudes are self defeating.

Aren't we all Nigerians?  Erosion is bad, don't get me wrong, but it can be dealt with by replanting trees. But have whole states submerged cannot be dealt with in the form of a solitary nation. Global warming has to be tackled by all nations, not only the U.S.

You think Igbos will like the influx of new people into our region though?

Who told you Imo and Abia will be spared? Have you see what Abia turns into when the rains arrive?

Kobojunkie:

Who told you Imo and Abia will be spared? Have you see what Abia turns into when the rains arrive?

Imo and Abia is farther inland! We do not have to worry like these coastal people. Maybe Umuahia might be called Port Umuahia!

EzeUche:

Imo and Abia is farther inland! We do not have to worry like these coastal people. Maybe Umuahia might be called Port Umuahia!

Further inland? All areas below sea will likely be affected  . . . maybe those up in Okigwe, some of those up in Uturu, Isikwuato maybe spared but the rest of Abia and Imo, will probably be some of those first hit

Kobojunkie:

Further inland? All areas below sea will likely be affected  . . . maybe those up in Okigwe, some of those up in Uturu, Isikwuato maybe spared but the rest of Abia and Imo, will probably be some of those first hit

How do you know? I didn't know you were an oceanologist? All I can say is that the coastal communities have more to fear right now than city centers further upland.

Kobojunkie:

Further inland? All areas below sea will likely be affected  . . . maybe those up in Okigwe, some of those up in Uturu, Isikwuato maybe spared but the rest of Abia and Imo, will probably be some of those first hit

The articles mentioned all the states that are at risk. . . . . . . . .

EzeUche:

And I am ok with Aba being washed away. May clean the filth from the city.

Seriously, xenophobia has nothing to do with this topic. Every part of Nigeria has environmental issues; the whole country needs a plan.

ezeagu:

The articles mentioned all the states that are at risk. . . . . . . . .

so?

SHOCKING statistics unfolded by experts yesterday gave hints that Nigeria could lose up to one third of its entire land area over the next 50 years. The doomsday prediction can, however, be averted if appropriate measures are taken to tackle the growing consequences of climate change.

And nothing will be done.

We have not manage to fix NEPA we want to fix a sinking Lagos. Wao.

Kobojunkie:

so?

So you don't have to worry about Imo and Abia.

EzeUche:

How do you know? I didn't know you were an oceanologist? All I can say is that the coastal communities have more to fear right now than city centers further upland.

You don't have to be an oceanologist to know these things these days. That is why people need to educate themselves on the effects of global warming and how it might impact them.

Definitely those right on the coast have to fear but so do people not so far from the coasts. Considering the appalling drainage in the eastern states, where do you think all that water goes now? What do you think will happen if all that water can no longer just flow back and away into the sea?

Kobojunkie,

Before it gets to Imo and Abia that has no coastline, it would already have swallowed Ogun, Lagos, Ondo, Rivers, Delta, Edo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.

Mr Fire:

Kobojunkie,

Before it gets to Imo and Abia that has no coastline, it would already have swallowed Ogun, Lagos, Ondo, Rivers, Delta, Edo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.

OK . . . so before the ant climbing up my body gets to my face, it would have crawled up my feet, legs, arm, shoulder . . .  so what again are you saying? lol

The places at risk include southern Bayelsa, southern Rivers State (up to Port Harcourt) and parts of Lagos State. These places have very lowlands/swamps/mangroves which is probably why Port Harcourt wasn't built on the coast. For Imo and Abia to be completely flooded, there would have to be some serious ice melting going on in Canada, Greenland, Antarctica, etc. that makes up for all this water, by that time the world would have lost much of its land. As far as I know, water doesn't climb heights if its whole body isn't rising as well.

babapupa:


Onlyfalse, the same folks from Holland referenced above as the best in the world are in charge of fortification at Eko Atlantic. Eko Atlantic fortification was designed way above specification to confront the worst weather challenges.

And please go sell the rest of your rubbish to your village folks. Trust me, they need your brilliant ideas over there.

Hahahahaha. . . . . .hahahahaha. LIGHTS OUT!!!! LOL

EzeUche:

No!!!

If Bayelsa and Rivers state is submerged, guess where they will be coming in droves It will be Alaigbo! Alaigbo is way too crowded as it is.

Absolutely unnecessary fear mongering. Who told you that Alaigbo is already too crowded? Have you really driven around Igboland? Land plenty well well. Our brothers in the coastal areas are always welcome to settle with us if it gets to that stage.

No shaking at all.

otawa:

And nothing will be done.

We have not manage to fix NEPA we want to fix a sinking Lagos. Wao.

lmfao! 

More mega maga projects. Rolling on da floor.

Beaf:

Seriously, xenophobia has nothing to do with this topic. Every part of Nigeria has environmental issues; the whole country needs a plan.

Exactly my point. 100% spot on!

Onlytruth:

Absolutely unnecessary fear mongering. Who told you that Alaigbo is already too crowded? Have you really driven around Igboland? Land plenty well well. Our brothers in the coastal areas are always welcome to settle with us if it gets to that stage. 

No shaking at all. 

Biafra by way of nature force. If we cannot meet the sea, the sea will meet us instead. I'm kidding!

ezeagu:

Biafra by way of nature force. If we cannot meet the sea, the sea will meet us instead. I'm kidding!

I'm really rolling!

E be like say even nature supports Biafra.

Igbo folks these days (like Ezeuche) have since passed that usual Biafra definition. Their Biafra these days focus more on Igboland.

We'll do this on humanitarian grounds not on strategic basis. Nature is biased already!