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Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph - Politics (7) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Ovamboland(m): 9:20am On Mar 06
theoldpretender:


Bubu is left wing when it comes to power, the downstream oil sector and education.

All those sectors are heavily subsidized. Yes, petrol inclusive.

If Buhari was a capitalist, he would have completely removed all subsidies meaning that power bills would be as high as 30000 for a single room apartment on meter, fuel would be costing as high as 300 naira per liter, and universities fees would be as high as 2million naira. And sold NNPC.

Even Trader moni and NPower are typical socialist ideas. Provide cash for the poor.

And by the way, doing all the above would have generated investment and jobs, but would have been resisted by most Nigerians as people unfriendly .Invest looted funds instead of doing tradermoni? Not people oriented

Nigerian governments have typically practiced a mixed economy. It keeps both the capitalist elite and the socialist poor happy

What is Social security in USA, and benefits for unemployment in UK , Canada, France?

Why must it be a bad thing when only Africans are benefiting? And suddenly becomes a wonderful thing when the same is done by a white country? Why are are African immigrants collecting this benefits in Western countries and even refuse to come back home to zero benefits?
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by ogtavia(m): 9:20am On Mar 06
priceaction:
They have started with their doom saying again. They talked about this 4 years ago, and they were proved wrong. At least we were able to survive and manage it well.This would have happened assuming ND avengers keep causing havoc but it was also well managed.The structures of Nigeria and Venezuela are different. venezuela is under sanction, nigeria, no. Venezuela has post unrest situations, not in nigeria, there is fractional supports of opposition government from surrounding countries including america but in nigeria, no opposition or parallel government as at now, and everyone has moved on except atiku and pdp that likely go to court. The structures on ground are not the same.

Yes, poor economic policies by buhari led government may allow some foreign investors to be skeptical about investing in nigeria but is not as bad as they foresee. The main problem is that many free and stolen money that many advanced countries like UK see from Nigerian government in the past has drastically reduced. They depend on those money to grow their own economy and now no free corrupt money while the one they are protecting are been put under pressure to be recovered. They should face their brexit wahala and leave us alone until things stabilize.


They depend on which money to grow their economy? Who told you those ones base their budgets on hypothesis? Even if they base their economy on projected earnings/incoming, trust me the impact is marginal. Let's not glorify an anti-economy govt on the altar of fighting corruption.

Most people don't know that the subject of the comparison between Nigeria and Venezuela here is the similarity in leadership ideology I.e left wing populism. Read about it before reading this post, it will help you understand the writer's mindset. He made mention of Russia but didn't talk about Italy and a few other European countries with such ideals. I have heard of an impending European economic crisis. This lends credence to it.

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by wirinet(m): 9:21am On Mar 06
grandstar:


Please learn to accept constructive criticism.

I wrote off this government within a month of his ascendency to power once he pegged the exchange rate. I knew the country was in the hands of someone with a lamentable understanding of economics.

Utomi, Soludo and especially Lamido Sanusi condemned his economic pilicies
. Lamido said there's nowhere in the world these policies have worked!

Please Google Sanusi condemns Buhari's policies. Also do the same for Soludo and Utomi.

Buhari brought this upon himself. Growth in the next 4years will average at most 3.5% a year compared to the 6% prior to that.

Give me links where Utomi, Soludo and Lamido Sanusi advised Buhari to float the naira. Did Soludo or Lamido Sanusi float the naira when they were CBN governor?

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by kannymoore(m): 9:23am On Mar 06
claycares:
A simple Google search. Human beings lie but data don't lie. About 50 million compared to about 200 million people. What a shame.

I dunno what you think but I personally believe that Nigeria doesn't have 200 million people!

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by 9jaRealist: 9:25am On Mar 06
JeromeBlack:
Did you miss where 2 leading economists were quoted or the fact that they used metrics such as GDP, income per head and strenght of currency to reach their verdict on Nigeria?

Telegraph might have their bias but Nigeria is rushing towards doom. If the economic recession and the devaluing of our currency in Nigeria are not enough for you to see the impending doom, then nothing will.

You can always find “leading economists” on both sides of every economic discourse. cheesy

Nonetheless, more interesting is that Renaissance Capital (whose Chief Economist is one of the two economists quoted) continues to ramp up its Nigeria operations, and its affiliated company Rendeavor recently broke ground on the massive Alaro City project in Ibeju-Lekki.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by YoungBlackRico(m): 9:26am On Mar 06
grandstar:


Please learn to accept constructive criticism.

I wrote off this government within a month of his ascendency to power once he pegged the exchange rate. I knew the country was in the hands of someone with a lamentable understanding of economics.

Utomi, Soludo and especially Lamido Sanusi condemned his economic pilicies. Lamido said there's nowhere in the world these policies have worked!

Please Google Sanusi condemns Buhari's policies. Also do the same for Soludo and Utomi.

Buhari brought this upon himself. Growth in the next 4years will average at most 3.5% a year compared to the 6% prior to that.
Constructive indeed!
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by 9jaRealist: 9:33am On Mar 06
kannymoore:
I dunno what you think but I personally believe that Nigeria doesn't have 200 million people!

Tend to agree.

Notice that since the introduction of the smart card reader, actual voters (not registered numbers) in Nigerian national elections has been in the 30 million region (28 million this year), even as our elections become more keenly contested and the population becomes more politically aware and active. We need to do the BASIC minimum requirement of every sovereign nation - count ourselves PROPERLY!
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Fidelismaria(m): 9:38am On Mar 06
Chai

Nigeria is doomed
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by grandstar(m): 9:43am On Mar 06
wirinet:
All you wrote is predicated on false economics


Pegging the exchange rate was a gamble that paid in the long run. If Buhari had not insisted on pegging the naira, I am sure the dollar would have been selling close to 1000 to the dollar by now.

Crude prices which our dollar supply almost exclusively depended on plummeted to $30, so dollars was in serious scarcity. In this environment, what do you think would have happened if the narrative was floated? Remember that at a time the dollar rose to N500 on the parallel market.
Luckily crude prices partially recovered and the government was able to manage the exchange rate again.
At that time the whole world was telling Nigeria to float the narrative (the IMF has always demanded we devalue the naira), but luckily Buhari stood firm. Countries that floated their currencies lived to regret it as they have not recovered from the 2015 oil crash till date.



That is totally untrue.

The country closest to us economically is Russia which survives on it's commodities and massively imports lots of consumer goods.

The Rouble was allowed to float and has lost half it's value. Note that Russia's economic worse are worsened by sanctions imposed on it and also because Russia's unpredictable policies drives away foreign investors. Nigeria therefore has an edge.

The dooms day senario you painted would never have occurred.

This is not the first time oil prices have crashed.

Prior to Buhari's ascendency, the Naira started dropping from around 160 in July 2014 to around 200 when Buhari took over the hot seat. The price of oil had fallen from over $100 in July 2014 to about $50.

Emefiele's allowing the Naira to depreciate was very prudent. You can even see that despite the steep fall in oil prices, the Naira did not suffer a sickening crash.

Buhari halted all such depreciation and senselessly pegged it without considering market forces. The rest is history.

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by grandstar(m): 9:46am On Mar 06
wirinet:


Give me links where Utomi, Soludo and Lamido Sanusi advised Buhari to float the naira. Did Soludo or Lamido Sanusi float the naira when they were CBN governor?

https://www.nairaland.com/4861949/lamido-sanusi-laments-buharis-economic
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Olumyco(m): 9:47am On Mar 06
GrossPrice:


Telegraph like Amnesty International will only generate content that makes them money.

Nigeria is currently second largest economy in Africa , and Lagos the sixth. Telegraph claims S.A is ahead of Nigeria.

Telegraph cites a "political blogger", in the U.K would the Telegraph ask a political blogger or a professor for an opinion?

But, Nigerians in Nigeria don't read or use their brains. We like asking a plumber how to fix an electrical fault.

Same way we need a western newspaper to tell us we are going to die, and fool's like you start clapping.

Foolish Nigerian Youth.

Nigeria is still currently the largest economy in Africa. Telegraph dont know anything based on what they wrote up there. Nigeria has never fallen from being number since 2014. These people will just come and be saying things that are invalid
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by theoldpretender(m): 9:49am On Mar 06
Ovamboland:


What is Social security in USA, and benefits for unemployment in UK , Canada, France?

Why must it be a bad thing when only Africans are benefiting? And suddenly becomes a wonderful thing when the same is done by a white country? Why are are African immigrants collecting this benefits in Western countries and even refuse to come back home to zero benefits?

Most African countries are resource dependent, which means that their economies float and sink with rises and falls in the commodities prices, which means they have to take loans when pricea fall, which makes them not have the capacity to sustain social welfare economies long term.

Most Western countries have diversified and highly industrial and innovation driven economies, and as such can afford social welfare programs TO an extent.... even they are going into debt sustaining such progammes.Like the US social security program which is heavily in debt, and the UKs NHS.

1 Like

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by frosbel2(m): 9:52am On Mar 06
9jaRealist:


Nigeria attracts by far the highest tech dollars in Africa (and btw, Google and Facebook have significant operations here).

Facebook has no office in Nigeria - their operations in Nigeria are managed from South Africa
Google has no office in Nigeria - their operations in Nigeria are managed from South Africa

They are not providing any employment opportunities for the Nigeria youth.

I recently asked a senior manager at Amazon why they had no offices in Africa , he said due to poor infrastructure. They only very recently opened one office in Cape Town, South Africa.

5 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by SIRTee15: 9:55am On Mar 06
Retrography:
Anything that comes from the West is the real deal... And that's how Africans have been enslaved in their thought process. *I remember when the US during Jonathan predicted that Nigeria will break up in 2015.*
Same way they refused to give us Ebola drugs. But we triumphed.

And didn't nigeria almost break up....
Thank God for Jonathan who was wise enough to give up power.....
Then, Buhari stupidity afterwards nearly put this country into another civil war....
Until Nigeria assemble a team that understands the dynamic economic system of the 21st century, I don't see us escaping the prophesy.....
Nigeria should also be restructured, serious states/regions should be allowed to develop while other ones who doesn't see the need to develop can continue to wallow in poverty......
Nigerian economy is oil dependent, so what happens when oil becomes irrelevant.....
The rest of the world has targeted 2030 to eradicate fossil fuel n go green energy e.g electric cars.....
So what to Nigeria when oil price finally goes downhill never to come up undecided undecided undecided undecided
Ur guess is as good as mine...

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Ayobami7(m): 9:55am On Mar 06
hmmmm
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Kylekent59: 9:57am On Mar 06
dheaven:
If Buhari can assemble good economic team in this new administration it wont happen.


Oh!!, It's now your eyes are opened after voting APC grin



Good economic teams are Atiku and Obi, but because of tribalism and religion you alacritcally denied them that chance to make Nigeria better.


E never even start grin

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by flow26: 10:00am On Mar 06
Just another doomsday prohecy. Buhari never glorified poverty.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by SIRTee15: 10:05am On Mar 06
kannymoore:


I dunno what you think but I personally believe that Nigeria doesn't have 200 million people!
I also don't believe that nonsense population....
These figures were fabricated during census for election motive....
Card readers has exposed the fraud of bogus election number b4 it's introduction....
The north uses the huge figures to allocate huge resources to themselves.....
Have u noticed that other Muslim populated countries in Africa don't have the kind of population coming from northern nigeria....
What makes northern nigeria different.....
Yes they have a high birth turnover but this is neutered by high child mortality ratio...
This is why most poor nations don't have huge population despite their high birth rate....
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by GuntersChain(m): 10:06am On Mar 06
they called buhari anti business president, the man that glorified poverty in his last campaign, ghana has more business suitor more than nigeria in the last three and half years, comparing nigeria to venezuela that has a parrallel government. Which way nigeria
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by teepain: 10:16am On Mar 06
priceaction:

Is not as bad as how they portrait it bro. 4 years ago was terrible than this, that's when I thought things would have gone uncontrollable, but here we are, the truth is that they are also fighting for their own interest. Countries may have thousands of grade A foreign investors but still, not be able to survive if economic crises happens.

Nigeria has not even had serious minded investors; majority of them are just portfolio investors with their Nigeria criminal counterparts.

1 Like

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by 9jaRealist: 10:22am On Mar 06
frosbel2:
Facebook has no office in Nigeria - their operations in Nigeria are managed from South Africa
Google has no office in Nigeria - their operations in Nigeria are managed from South Africa


They are not providing any employment opportunities for the Nigeria youth.

I recently asked a senior manager at Amazon why they had no offices in Africa , he said due to poor infrastructure. They only very recently opened one office in Cape Town, South Africa.

I personally know the Director of Africa Policy at Facebook (a classmate at Columbia Univ), and can assure you that Facebook has a hub in Nigeria, which was launched in May 2018. In fact, not only FB, but also Google and MEST each have a hub in Nigeria (with the Google Nigeria office quite prominent on Kingsway Road in Ikoyi). Meanwhile, Nigeria led Africa in foreign investment in tech for the past 3 consecutive years (2016-2018), including leading the way both in number and value of deals in 2018 (see WeeTracker’s Africa Venture Capital Report 2018).

BTW, Nigeria does not really need Amazon, with Jumia and Konga doing as well as they have (and each attracting significant foreign capital), just as Alibaba led the way in China before the influx of foreign competition. Amazon is a great brand but local knowledge is invaluable.

5 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by grandstar(m): 10:33am On Mar 06
theoldpretender:
Nigeria is not going to be Venezuela

1.Goverment here does not subsidze everything.

2.Our savings are at 40bn USD. Venezuela is down to its last 10bn.

3.We don't print money to solve economic issues.

4.We actually still manufacture stuff we consume here. Things like toilet roll, soap, some processed food, etc. Venezuela imports everything.

5.We. actually removed fuel subsidies when it was sustainable. Venezuela until recently subsidized fuel as low as 45 naira. At the expense of its forex.

6.Venezuela took over all its private companies. Nigeria? No way. We even sold off government shares in most private companies over the last 3 decades.

7.Nigeria has a more diversified economy than Venezuela.

Where Nigeria can become like Venezuela

1.Subsidies are still in place. This is costing us jobs in the oil sector as well as investment.

2.Power is worse than in Venezuela due to lack of deregulation. Discos are charging for power at a price lower than the cost of production. You see why we don't have light.

3.Corruption is still a problem, despite Buhari being there.

4.Bloated civil service, bloated National Assembly

5.Our education system is severely underfunded. Made worse by the fact that fees are too low to make up funding gaps.

6.Insecurity.Just as bad as Venezuela

The dooms day scenario painted isn't feasible as you said.

I however foresee a devaluation anytime soon. Perhaps in the next 2years.

Inflation rate has been over 10% yearly while the Naira has been stable. For the Naira to maintain it's competitiveness, a devaluation may be the only way out.

Anyway, it is too early to say. Maybe in 4 or 5 years time at the latest

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Esseite: 10:36am On Mar 06
Uglymugg:


800million people migrated from war torn syria and afghan to Europe. Where is the global problem? Point at it.

800million people and they didn't take over the country?..

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Uglymugg: 10:37am On Mar 06
Esseite:


800million people and they didn't take over the country?..

Hmm strange. I don't remember making that post. I guess I should quit this taking acid before I fry my brains.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by SmilingScorpion: 10:38am On Mar 06
onez:
This country is irredeemable with the tyrant in charge. A govt that glorifies poverty and demonizes wealth and prosperity. Ghana with a tiny population is attracting more wealth. By the time the Failure finishes with us, severe extreme poverty will find home in both south and north of Niger. Who will save us?

Wait let me telephone Superman!
Hello Superman
I have a job for you.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Esseite: 10:39am On Mar 06
Uglymugg:


Hmm strange. I don't remember making that post. I guess I should quit this taking acid before I fry my brains.

Lol...
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by urahara(m): 10:44am On Mar 06
grandstar:


Please learn to accept constructive criticism.

I wrote off this government within a month of his ascendency to power once he pegged the exchange rate. I knew the country was in the hands of someone with a lamentable understanding of economics.

Utomi, Soludo and especially Lamido Sanusi condemned his economic pilicies. Lamido said there's nowhere in the world these policies have worked!

Please Google Sanusi condemns Buhari's policies. Also do the same for Soludo and Utomi.

Buhari brought this upon himself. Growth in the next 4years will average at most 3.5% a year compared to the 6% prior to May 29, 2015

But @grandstar , how come the devaluation of the Russian ruble caused a recession swiftly. Doesn't that mean whether the currency was devalued or not , Nigeria economy was headed to collapse.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by wirinet(m): 10:52am On Mar 06
grandstar:


https://www.nairaland.com/4861949/lamido-sanusi-laments-buharis-economic

If you read the real import of the article, you will see that Sanusi is also speculating on the likely effect of each of the two directions.
This is what he said;

Noting that the president had been dealt an extraordinarily difficult hand, he added: “There are no easy options and devaluation is a bitter pill. ” During his own tenure as governor he had also resisted it but added that “I had reserves of over $40bn and an oil price at over $110,” he said.


He was of the opinion that devalution would be a lesser evil than pegging, but any of the options was bad and it was not of buhari's making.

At the time, there was a hinted debate between devaluation and pegging of the naira among top economists and the general public. The international financial organisations and some economists went for devalution, while some opted for holding out and pray crude prices improve.
Buhari went with pegging and luckily crude prices improved just in time.

My argument then and now is that if you float the naira in a one commodity and import oriented country like Nigeria, you will not know or have control of where the naira will eventually stop. We have no other exports to balance out imports (dollar demand), so we could fall into runaway inflation.

If Sanusi believes in liberalisation of the currency, he would have floated the naira when he was at the helms of affairs. Would it not have been easier then when crude was selling for over $100 and the country was awash with dollars?

Sanusi's main concern was the corruption by banks and speculators as as result of the disparity between the parallel market and official market.

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by grandstar(m): 11:09am On Mar 06
urahara:


But @grandstar , how come the devaluation of the Russian ruble caused a recession swiftly. Doesn't that mean whether the currency was devalued or not , Nigeria economy was headed to collapse.


Russia was overly dependent on it's commodities especially crude oil for it's economic growth and also overly dependent on imports of almost everything else. This signaled that Russia needed to liberalise and deregulate more of it's economy.

Russia has one of the highest rates of highly educated people in the world. It should be a scientific powerhouse for instance but it's far from that. It could leverage on it's defence industry like Israel and become a respectable technological hub.

The crash of the oil price was the primary cause of the recession and not the devaluation. Had it not allowed the Rouble to float, the foreign reserves would have been wiped clean. They had learnt their lesson in 2019 when oil price crashed to $35 and their Central Bank blew $200b defending the currency because it left it at an overvalued rate. They were better prepared for a price fall this time.

The Economist magazine way way before the crash lamented that Russia's economic growth was simply fuelled by the price of crude oil. We're it to crash as it finally did, it would take the economy with it.

For real growth to restart, Russia needs to liberalise it's economy, set up business incubators, get rid of Putin, get sanctions on it lifted, give back Crimea to Ukraine, improve it's Ease of Doing Business and most importantly entrench the Rule of Law

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Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by urahara(m): 11:13am On Mar 06
grandstar:



Russia was overly dependent on it's commodities especially crude oil for it's economic growth and also overly dependent on imports of almost everything else. This signaled that Russia needed to liberalise and deregulate more of it's economy.

Russia has one of the highest rates of highly educated people in the world. It should be a scientific powerhouse for instance but it's far from that. It could leverage on it's defence industry like Israel and become a respectable technological hub.

The crash of the oil price was the primary cause of the recession and not the devaluation. Had it not allowed the Rouble to float, the foreign reserves would have been wiped clean. They had learnt their lesson in 2019 when oil price crashed to $35 and their Central Bank blew $200b defending the currency because it left it at an overvalued rate. They were better prepared for a price fall this time.

The Economist magazine way way before the crash lamented that Russia's economic growth was simply fuelled by the price of crude oil. We're it to crash as it finally did, it would take the economy with it.

For real growth to restart, Russia needs to liberalise it's economy, set up business incubators, get rid of Putin, get sanctions on it lifted, give back Crimea to Ukraine, improve it's Ease of Doing Business and most importantly entrench the Rule of Law

This kind of means that the main cause of the nigeriamn recession was the fall in oil price , do you agree ?
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by Ikeh01(m): 11:18am On Mar 06
Yes Nigeria is nothing but a clueless useless nation that only exist in a paper. To me,Venezuelan conditions may be better if NAIJA continue to exist like this.
Re: Nigeria About To Become The Next Venezuela - UK Telegraph by urahara(m): 11:19am On Mar 06
grandstar:



Russia was overly dependent on it's commodities especially crude oil for it's economic growth and also overly dependent on imports of almost everything else. This signaled that Russia needed to liberalise and deregulate more of it's economy.

Russia has one of the highest rates of highly educated people in the world. It should be a scientific powerhouse for instance but it's far from that. It could leverage on it's defence industry like Israel and become a respectable technological hub.

The crash of the oil price was the primary cause of the recession and not the devaluation. Had it not allowed the Rouble to float, the foreign reserves would have been wiped clean. They had learnt their lesson in 2019 when oil price crashed to $35 and their Central Bank blew $200b defending the currency because it left it at an overvalued rate. They were better prepared for a price fall this time.

The Economist magazine way way before the crash lamented that Russia's economic growth was simply fuelled by the price of crude oil. We're it to crash as it finally did, it would take the economy with it.

For real growth to restart, Russia needs to liberalise it's economy, set up business incubators, get rid of Putin, get sanctions on it lifted, give back Crimea to Ukraine, improve it's Ease of Doing Business and most importantly entrench the Rule of Law


Exactly just like ours too !!

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