@ Shigidi,
you make perfect sense. With an EPS of 40k, I'd pay N10 for Japual, esp. with such a high growth rate. That gives us a PE of 25. If we assume Japaul has a growth rate of 100%, we get a PEG of 0.25 which is lower than all banks except Skye and Access. In otther words, based on growth, it's a relatively cheap stock.

Be sure to figure in the extra shares about to be sold when calculating EPS.

AY good job man,
@all what is really happening to dangote flour.

@easimoni
Just read your post, just a couple of questions brother.
Do you have any idea of when the Japaul PO would begin? And pls, are you suggesting that Access is over-rated or inflated? From what you said about AP, do you think its not going to go up soon enough? Thanks Man

@Atam-man,
Japaul should be out between September and October. I am saving big time for it. Personally, I wouldn't touch Access with a 10 meter pole cos it is first of all, a bank and secondly, i think the offer is just based on hype.
Any news on Dangote Flour?

Atam-Man:

@easimoni
Just read your post, just a couple of questions brother.
Do you have any idea of when the Japaul PO would begin? And please, are you suggesting that Access is over-rated or inflated? From what you said about AP, do you think its not going to go up soon enough? Thanks Man

Based on recently released, I can no longer rail against Access bank. Their results have been too good! It is now (in my humble opinion) a well-priced offer.

AP: 9 months was 2.7B, 12 months was 2.1B (PAT). 12 months was lower than 9 months! enough said. Dunno if they are losing money or if they mislead the public on interim results. I would not buy. In fact I just sold.

I need a stock broker. Ayala are you one?

My regards to everybodi on the thread, most especially to all the gurus, y'all doin a great job, it's simply amazing to watch this thread grow dis tall!

However, Hay Why La La isnt too happy cause of the current plummet in the share value of my darling GTB. I have therefore  decided to give an insight into what could be responsible for the downward trend in the share price of the 6th largest bank in Nigeria (by assets). Other comments as to the causative factor will be highly appreciated,

WHY THE PRICE Of GTB IS SLIDING,

The price of GTB is currently witnessing a plunge due to no other reason but the GDR offer which just got concluded. The reference price fixed at $12.75 was not matched by bidders in the local market; reports reaching the research desk has it that the GDR was bidded for @ a price of $11.20, translating to N1,411.20 for 50 shares of GTB @ an exchange rate of N126 to $1, since 1 GDR is equivalent to 50 shares of GTB. This brings down the valuation price of GTB to N28.22 per share (this is ridiculous!). The GDR is sure going to be a better option for investors with GTB trading @ N33.00 as @ 23rd of July, 2007. Arbitraging, the action embarked upon by investors due to the price differential between the GDR and the shares on the floor of the NSE, will definitely bring the two prices @ par in the not too distant future. GDRs’ prices should be fixed as the offer opens in subsequent times with GTB learning from the floating price scheme. A total of N134bn or $750m was realized from the offer as GTBank deposited the certificates to CSCS.



I therefore envisage a valuation price of N30.00 for GTB going by this current development, but please bear in mind the price will soon be on the upward trend as we await the interim dividend in two month’s time, we therefore forecast a price of N40.00 for GTB in the short-term.





Thank you

@ tellmemore, not yet,

@All
Judging by the bullish run made by banking stocks like UBA, OCEANIC & Zenith is it realistic to make a short term investment on first bank and expect it to rise to 50 naira in about three months?
And when will this stock's bull be unleashed , it is still being leashed?

hi all,
pls would ACCESS bank maintain a bull run after the public offer,

just asking because they have already marked down the price and declared dividend so why would investors scramble for it?

honest opinions pls

aylala2002:

Good all!!! Work has been tooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!! demandin,



Market pundits have the believe that the Nigerian Equities Market is witnessing a correction stage in the sense that the market having witnessed a boom in the first-half of the year with stocks returning as much as 900% capital gain, profit-taking has now resulted in the current share price plummet. The mad rush for penny stocks have thus resulted in price rallies across the board. Fundamentals will still continue to dictate stock pricing in any developing market. This is a period of CAUTIOUS-BUY.



INSURANCE

A careful research on the insurance sector has revealed that a stock like LASACO which was overvalued is currently trading at its fair value (below N3.00), the only result from the insurance company was its 3 months result for 31 March in the 2006 fiscal year which showed a decline in PAT to N73 million from N78 million in 2005,



NEM is a N4.00 stock bearing in mind that its new issues are yet to be listed.



Mutual Benefit is a N6.00 stock on the short-term; it should be trading at par with Continental Re: bearing in mind their similar capital base, Crusader is undervalued so also is Wapic,



Cornerstone is another stock which is hibernating, a sudden upside is likely.



Watch out for Aiico, which will soon become a bigger general insurer, we also advice investors to gear-up for position taking in Continental Re (the sole-quoted Re-insurer in Nigeria with a minimum capital base of N10bn), this is a N10 stock on the medium-term to long-term. Custodian is also looking good, while UNIC is a bit dicey for now but with strong future prospects.



BANKING



I regard Access as a ‘sleeper’ for now, once the suspension is lifted. I project N30.00 by March 2008, the bank’s MD is projecting N38.00 for the same period, the management comprises of intelligent individuals who leverage on new innovations in utilizing its funds.



Afribank is a laggard hence efforts are being made to push the price to @ least N20.



FCMB can only shoot higher with a good dividend declaration, Diamond bank is a good HOLD same goes for Platinum (a merger possibility with Afribank is the current market-hearsay), Diamond-First inland is another merger plan in focus.



Wema could do a profit after-tax of N6bn in its full year result for March 2006 which brings it to a fair value of N15.00 per share. Unity is a SELL as it has no fundamentals. Sterling is a long-term buy. You can invest in GTB, Intercont, Oceanic, FBN, Zenith as a long term buy that will yield maximum returns.



UBA’s court case if immaterial will drive the price to above N65 by December. I believe Fidelity’s price is managed by its brokerage subsidiary due to its public offer proposals.



Skye should trade well above Fidelity’s price since Skye has 7bn shares Fidelity has 16bn while the two banks make the same P.A.T in their quarterly un-audited results.



I shall continue to X-ray some other sub-sectors as more interesting scenarios unfold. A sure security against price losses is to buy public offers, though Dunlop was a bad investment.

HOT RAVES OF THE MOMENT!

Niger Insurance, Ecobank (long-term), Royal Exchange, Aiico, Law Union, Intercont, Wapic Oceanic, the list is inexhaustive.


Other goodies 4 Y'all;

STOCKS & THEIR FUNDAMENTALS
GTBank
Scorecard:
• Floated the first Eurobond by a Nigerian Bank worth $350 million which was oversubscribed.
• Return on Equity of 27.8%-highest in the sector
• Capital base of N150bn post GDR Offer
• Retail customer base grew from 139,000 in 2005 to over 450,000 as at June 2007
Recommendation: Long-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 35.50
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 95.59
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.75
PE Ratio (Times) 24.32
EPS (N) 1.46
Entry Price (N) 35.55
Exit Price (N) 45.00
Year End February

Mutual Benefit Assurance
Scorecard:
• Largest composite insurance company in Nigeria with N10bn capital base.
• 1st insurer to initiate interim dividend payment scheme
• Injection of foreign investor’s funds (Augustus Group Washington)
• Wide range of insurance products
Recommendation: Medium-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 4.81
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 568.06
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.10
PE Ratio 40.49
EPS (N) 0.12
Entry Price (N) 4.82
Exit Price (N) 7.00
Year End December

WAPIC Insurance
Scorecard:
• The lead Nigerian risk underwriter of the launched NigComSat 1 to the tune of N2bn. The 5,086kg communications satellite, first of its kind to be launched by an African country, is designed to operate in the C, KU, KA and L bands and is Africa’s geostationary communications satellite expected to offer broadcasting telecoms and broadband services.
Recommendation: Long-Term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 7.97
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 99.25
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.18
PE Ratio 16.05
EPS (N) 0.50
Entry Price (N) 7.95
Exit Price (N) 12.00
Year End December

Access Bank
Scorecard:
• 1st Bank in Africa and 2nd Globally to implement Flex cube 6.2
• Currently ranked 9th in the banking industry
• Rated ‘A+’ by Global Credit Rating Company
• Over $500 million on on-lending relationship with all Major DFI and IFIs
• Leader in Government Securities Trading
• Ranked N0 1 Globally in utilization of IFC Trade Facility
Recommendation: Long-term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 19.32
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 177.59
Latest Dividend Per Share (N) 0.40
PE Ratio 16.64
EPS (N) 1.16
Entry Price (N) 1.32
Exit Price (N) 30.00
Year End March

Intercontinental Bank
Scorecard:
• The 5th largest bank in Africa by capital base
• Biggest bank in Nigeria by capital base
• Among the 1st 500 banks in the world
• Influx of foreign investors like Rand Merchant Bank, AIG Investment Group, RICO-a leading business group in the mid-east
• 1st Nigerian Bank to cross the $1bn capital base
Recommendation: Medium-term BUY Price as @ 9th July 2007 (N) 25.50
Year-till-date (% Appreciation) 87.50
Projected Dividend Per Share 0.65
PE Ratio 17.67
EPS (N) 1.44
Entry Price (N) 25.55
Exit Price (N) 39.00
Year End February




MY DISCLAIMER
This report contained herewith is produced by A.Y. as a guideline for investors who intend to trade in securities. The information contained herein is merely an invitation to treat and has no intention to create legal obligation. Therefore, investors have the option to invest without complete reliance on any part of the information contained thereof. hence, A.Y. LA LA shall not be liable civilly or criminally for actions taken as a result of the information provided herein. Please pardon my gramatical errors.



GOD BLESS Y'ALL AS You MAKE SUM KOOL MONEY.


Invest wisely!!!

Insightful and forensic analysis i dare say. But i didnt see anything relating to japaul oil in your analysis. That stock has got to be one of the most under-priced equity on the stock market.  Currently trading at about 6 Naira i understand its going to do a PO at offer price of of around 3 naira how cheaper can you get?
I was planning to take a position when the Kaduna and PH refineries are floated nect year but with the shenanigans going on now guess that`s the end of  the road as far as that is concerned

I need a broker email: ibe@myinfoaccess.com

aylala2002:

My regards to everybodi on the thread, most especially to all the gurus, y'all doin a great job, it's simply amazing to watch this thread grow this tall!

However, Hay Why La La isnt too happy cause of the current plummet in the share value of my darling GTB. I have therefore decided to give an insight into what could be responsible for the downward trend in the share price of the 6th largest bank in Nigeria (by assets). Other comments as to the causative factor will be highly appreciated,

WHY THE PRICE Of GTB IS SLIDING,

The price of GTB is currently witnessing a plunge due to no other reason but the GDR offer which just got concluded. The reference price fixed at $12.75 was not matched by bidders in the local market; reports reaching the research desk has it that the GDR was bidded for @ a price of $11.20, translating to N1,411.20 for 50 shares of GTB @ an exchange rate of N126 to $1, since 1 GDR is equivalent to 50 shares of GTB. This brings down the valuation price of GTB to N28.22 per share (this is ridiculous!). The GDR is sure going to be a better option for investors with GTB trading @ N33.00 as @ 23rd of July, 2007. Arbitraging, the action embarked upon by investors due to the price differential between the GDR and the shares on the floor of the NSE, will definitely bring the two prices @ par in the not too distant future. GDRs’ prices should be fixed as the offer opens in subsequent times with GTB learning from the floating price scheme. A total of N134bn or $750m was realized from the offer as GTBank deposited the certificates to CSCS.



I therefore envisage a valuation price of N30.00 for GTB going by this current development, but please bear in mind the price will soon be on the upward trend as we await the interim dividend in two month’s time, we therefore forecast a price of N40.00 for GTB in the short-term.





Thank you

I suspect a lot of folks who buy the GDR will opt to convert to ordinary shares soon because the dollar is not the favorite currency at the moment

hey all, another relatively cheap stock must be c and i leasing, this should finish the year with an eps of 40k, and a dps of 20 kobo, another potential 10 naira share in the next few months to come. who knows how long the japaul suspension will be, i want to know so i dont get mnoey stuck there for three months, i dont intend taking part in the po but prefer to buy from the floor. also according to proshare, standard alliance insurance will be coming to the market soon.

@ aylala and Dollyp, I also did the GTB calculations late last night and saw the GDRs are being sold at the equivalent of N147 = $1. Means people are better off selling the shares and buying the GDRs. Ay is right, to equalize the prices, GTB will have to fall to ~N30.

I get burned yet again!  Looks like I'll have to wait a long time.

@ ALL
i nwill like to know if there is anyone ine the hous ewho has information on INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE
Please i will like your input on this, because i am intrested in investing on this share if i get them
Please GURUs help a young brother out thanks

stanchuks:

@ ALL
i nwill like to know if there is anyone ine the hous ewho has information on INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE
Please i will like your input on this, because i am intrested in investing on this share if i get them
Please GURUs help a young brother out thanks

You should have bought this stock during their private placement which ended two weeks ago prior to listing. You will have to be a real hunter to track down and get this stock on the exchange as it will be scarce for some time to come.

Why? Those who presently have it will not be willing to sell!

It's a good buy though, if you can get it now.

@Everyone,
Please can anybody here confirm if Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede (CEO of Access Bank Plc) is a relative of the late Frank Aig-Imoukhuede of Vanguard Newpapers? And please, how are they related? Kind thanks for all replies

Please can someone suggest a link to find out the latest POs coming out. This would be helpful as I would have bought the INTEGINS PO that was closed some weeks back.

All,
I need a broker  e-mail  damolasns@yahoo.com
I would want to know whether it is better to give 100% discretinary order ( To buy and sell without consulting one)  to a broker
Thanks

Has firstbank started trading? i noticed it went up today. 288 deals in btw

enolase:

You should have bought this stock during their private placement which ended two weeks ago prior to listing. You will have to be a real hunter to track down and get this stock on the exchange as it will be scarce for some time to come.

Why? Those who presently have it will not be willing to sell!

It's a good buy though, if you can get it now.

Even if you did you will be making paper profit!

Your certificate will still be nowhere to be found. When it is finally sent to you you will have to verify and lodge it in CSCS. Most often those trades are cross deals, merging of accounts and consolidation of holdings just to jerk up the price.

People with short term view of the market will get heart attack looking at potential 'gains' that they've missed. If I am you, I will close my eyes to them!

the funny thing is that most of the insurance companies actually have their offers serious undersubscribed!!!! I know a re insurance company that did an offer at 85k and it was to have closed in Sept 2006. Now there asking me to come and buy at 95k prior to their listing! Why? It was undersubsribed and they needed money. Once I buy, it will be listed on teh NSE in a couple of weeks with teh pricegaining 5% everyday whereas no one has received the certificate yet!

IGI did a private placement about 12 months ago but no certificate yet! For all you know it was undersubscribed! let it get listed now and see what will ahppen!

@Wanaja
are u saying that we should stay off the insurance sector.i will really need your opinion and advise b4 i make a fatal mistake.im imploring you to pls help with some recommedation on this and other low priced stocks that u feel have prospects.
secondly if i buy stock during IPO,how do i ensure that its credited into my acct directly instead of issuing me a cert.
thirdly,if u think the insurance firm asking 2 pay 95k is worth investing in in the long term,im interested n if u dont minf u cud furnish me details.enurayce@yahoo.com is my email.waiting for ur response

@Wanaja
are u saying that we should stay off the insurance sector.i will really need your opinion and advise b4 i make a fatal mistake.im imploring you to pls help with some recommedation on this and other low priced stocks that u feel have prospects.
secondly if i buy stock during IPO,how do i ensure that its credited into my acct directly instead of issuing me a cert.
thirdly,if u think the insurance firm asking 2 pay 95k is worth investing in in the long term,im interested n if u dont minf u cud furnish me details.enurayce@yahoo.com is my email.waiting for ur response

@Wanaja
are u saying that we should stay off the insurance sector.i will really need your opinion and advise b4 i make a fatal mistake.im imploring you to pls help with some recommedation on this and other low priced stocks that u feel have prospects.
secondly if i buy stock during IPO,how do i ensure that its credited into my acct directly instead of issuing me a cert.
thirdly,if u think the insurance firm asking 2 pay 95k is worth investing in in the long term,im interested n if u dont minf u cud furnish me details.enurayce@yahoo.com is my email.waiting for ur response

The Insurance industry is still in the midst of some form of investigation by the regulatory bodies.

enurayce:

@Wanaja
are u saying that we should stay off the insurance sector.i will really need your opinion and advise before i make a fatal mistake.im imploring you to please help with some recommedation on this and other low priced stocks that u feel have prospects.
secondly if i buy stock during IPO,how do i ensure that its credited into my acct directly instead of issuing me a cert.
thirdly,if u think the insurance firm asking 2 pay 95k is worth investing in in the long term,im interested n if u don't minf u cud furnish me details.enurayce@yahoo.com is my email.waiting for your response

Don't stay off the insurance sector but open your eyes wide! There is a lot of 'financial engineering' going on there. The sector is not as well regulated as the banking sector.

If you have a long term view then go for the insurance sector. The opportunities are there. Government policies are favourable. The sector is set for a boom. However, shine your eye.

As per the company going for 95k, it is a private placement. It came out last year and I ignored it. Officially, it closed Sept 2006. Just the same way the international energy closed in 2006 but they still collected from people till two weeks before listing.

I tend to invest for the LONG TERM though I can take advantage of short term opportunities. If I will place an order today, I will buy Nigerian German and May and Baker.

As per buying IPO's, First Bank will likely be the first to do e-allotment. let's see how that goes. At least we've had E-bonus already. However, note that it takes a while to complete a PO. The one for banks even take longer due to CBN verification. Hence, you need to have a LONG TERM view for PO's

@ wanajo, so which insurance companies will u advise, aylala suggests continental re; might reach 10 naira, which ones will u advise based on the fundamentals.

Okay the good times are here for the NSE, First Bank offer merely completed in July, hopes this means early release for share certificate.

NSE LIFTS SUSPENSION ON FBN SHARES

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) yesterday lifted the technical suspension placed on the shares First Bank of Nigeria Plc, following its recent public offering. The shares which were suspended at N40.40 gained N2.02 yesterday to close at N42.42. FBN had offered for subscription 1.6 billion ordinary shares of 50k each at N33 per unit and right issue of 1.4 billion ordinary shares of 50K each at N31 per unit, at a discounted rate of N7.40 per shares, N9.40 per share respectively. There are indications that the bank may have raked in over N500 billion from its recent offer. Thisday checks revealed that management of the bank is presently in talks with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with a view to absorbing all the over subscribed portion of its offer. In another development, the NSE yesterday listed 634 million ordinary shares of Airline Services and Logistics Plc at a nominal price of 50 kobo each at N4 per share. The shares attracted traders' attention as a total of 2.8 million ordinary shares valued at N12.1 million executed in 233 deals were sold. The shares which were listed at N4.00 each appreciated by 20 kobo per share, closing transactions at N4.20 per share. Meanwhile, the price movement chart of the NSE displayed 59 stocks that appreciated in their prices. Mobil Oil Nigeria Plc led the price gainers with N3.00 to close at N170.15 per share. On the other hand, prices of 54 stocks dropped. Nestle Nigeria Plc led on the price losers' chart. It recorded a loss of N5.70 to close at N214.30 per share. Thisday, p. 75.

@ easimoni, pls how do people manage to get the fair value of a stock(not projected price).
and do u think first banks run might get to 60 naira cos i hear it was 200% oversubscribed in the p.o

@ Wanaj0
i will like to know what you think of Sterling Bank Plc and livestock feeds plc, i actually took to your advise and asked my broker to get me Nigerian German Chemicals,but he suggested sterling bank and from fundamentals that i have gone through on this forum i also asked him to get me livestockfeeds

I will be grateful if anyone one in the forum has some kind of information that will strengthen what my broker told me yesterday,i have actually sent a buy order for these three stock

stanchuks, i think sterling bank is more of a long term buy(probably over a year) if thats what u want.but i think nigerian german in the next six months should be in the 25naira range
gud luck