Onlytruth:

Posted by: Obiagu1
All I said was the maybe the GEJ government knows what the rest of us don't know about Nigerian demographics, and I stand by that.
Look, Nigeria politics is too complex to be narrowed down to zoning and rotational presidency.
Okay what happened to the PDP zoning arrangement? Are they abiding by it?

. . . I'll be back.

Don't wave the figures away with Nigerian politics being complex etc. It's a data and a fact we'll work with.

As for PDP zoning arrangement, I shoud be the one asking you that question. GEJ defied it, you supported him and zoning was killed.

Obiagu1:

Lagos is a city state, if we have mayors in Nigeria, definitely Fashola will be mayor of Lagos and not governor of Lagos, whereas Kano has several cities and towns, not just the city of Kano.

do you know that places like ikeja and mushin are cities in the real sense of the word?

asha 2:

do you know that places like ikeja and mushin are cities in the real sense of the word?

They all should be Lagos metropolis or greater Lagos. There are no separations.

Just like Toronto, thou Mississauga is supposed to be a city on its own, it's still part of greater Toronto.

Obiagu1:

But these figures tell you otherwise. The figure those organisations gave was false, absolutely false. They were just estimating when we have no reliable data to actually make a good and reasonable estimate.

Since I've followed elections in Nigeria, Kano state figures always cancels out Lagos own.
When you talk about Kano, it's huge with many towns.

It is what it is. I'm not saying that they are infallible, but I trust international demographers and statisticians more than I trust Nigerian FG ones. Even if they have an agenda, it will be less than that of the Nigerian FG.

Combine this with some of the other data sources we have, and it shouldn't be hard to see that something is wrong with the official #s.

Anyway, you can believe what you like. . . no big deal to me.

Obiagu1:

Lagos is a city state, if we have mayors in Nigeria, definitely Fashola will be mayor of Lagos and not governor of Lagos, whereas Kano has several cities and towns, not just the city of Kano.

Think about it this way. The 6 LGAs of Kano proper are estimated (by international bodies) to have a population of 3.4 million. Let's call this Kano Metro.

Lagos State is estimated (by international bodies) to have a population of 11 million+.

So somehow if one believes that the international figures are correct AND that Kano State is comparable in population to Lagos State, then somehow you must believe that the 38 LGAs in Kano State but not in Kano Metro have a population north of 7 million+  

So the question I have for you, do you truly believe that there are 7 million people who live in Kano State minus Kano Metro?  

In other words, if you deleted the Kano Metro area, Kano State would STILL be amongst the most populated states in all of Nigeria?

Kano might have more population than Lagos.

Also dont forget that the average Northerner is politically sensitised compared to Southerners.

In the SOuth especially Lagos, Middle class see elections, census as a bother and a day to rest at home while in the North they follow this like its the Quran

dayokanu:

Kano might have more population than Lagos.

Also dont forget that the average Northerner is politically sensitised compared to Southerners.

In the SOuth especially Lagos, Middle class see elections, census as a bother and a day to rest at home while in the North they follow this like its the Quran

i bielive the bolded.

eku_bear:


It is what it is. I'm not saying that they are infallible, but I trust international demographers and statisticians more than I trust Nigerian FG ones. Even if they have an agenda, it will be less than that of the Nigerian FG.

Combine this with some of the other data sources we have, and it shouldn't be hard to see that something is wrong with the official #s.

Anyway, you can believe what you like. . . no big deal to me.
Think about it this way. The 6 LGAs of Kano proper are estimated (by international bodies) to have a population of 3.4 million. Let's call this Kano Metro.

Lagos State is estimated (by international bodies) to have a population of 11 million+.

So somehow if one believes that the international figures are correct AND that Kano State is comparable in population to Lagos State, then somehow you must believe that the 38 LGAs in Kano State but not in Kano Metro have a population north of 7 million+

So the question I have for you, do you truly believe that there are 7 million people who live in Kano State minus Kano Metro?

In other words, if you deleted the Kano Metro area, Kano State would STILL be amongst the most populated states in all of Nigeria?

I don't have anything to do with the estimates done by those organisations.
Nigerian census gave Kano population as 9,383,682 and Lagos as 9,013,534 and that's what I work with.

17 million for Lagos is completely rubbish, Lagos is not as big and congested as New York City (metro =19,006,798) or is it? You have to tell me.

The 17 million isn't what I cited though, is it? That is Lagos State internal figures. Tbh, I don't trust those #s any more than I trust the Nigerian FGs.

The figures I have the most confidence in are those done by the UN.

Anyway, pretty clear that Kano State is not as populated as Lagos State.

eku_bear:

The 17 million isn't what I cited though, is it? That is Lagos State internal figures. Tbh, I don't trust those #s any more than I trust the Nigerian FGs.

The figures I have the most confidence in are those done by the UN.

Anyway, pretty clear that Kano State is not as populated as Lagos State.

conducted by whom?

fstranger3:

conducted by whom?

What do you mean? Like, which of their employees specifically. . . ? That I wouldn't know.

eku_bear:

What do you mean? Like, which of their employees specifically. . . ? That I wouldn't know.

So what makes you think it is more credible than the official figure?

fstranger3:

So what makes you think it is more credible than the official figure?

Well, let's attack the problem from a slightly different perspective. Let's assume that the official Nigerian #s are roughly correct, and see what follows from this.

Kano in 2006, number listed is 9,401,288 (See here http://www.population.gov.ng/state/kanofinal.pdf).

Alright, so lets separate out the Kano Metro Area (See the 6 LGAs which constitute this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kano_State), Northern Kano and Southern Kano.

You can take the population of each LGA, divide by the size of the LGA in square km. I've tabulated that on the first sheet of the following spreadsheet: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsNUaGBnBF1KdHlLcjFpbmZmdUYtenJtMHd1aFBJS0E&hl=en&authkey=CITEqpoD#gid=0

We get a density of 5600 per sq km for Kano Metro, 377.72 for Northern Kano, 296.67 for Southern Kano.

So in other words, we are calculating the population density of Kano minus the city of Kano and its metro areas. The non-urban parts of Kano.

How does these areas compare to the rest of Nigeria?

Well, I grabbed the population/land mass data from Wikipedia and stored it in sheet two of the above spreadsheet.

Here is the result: http://i51.tinypic.com/10covgm.jpg

So if we believe the officially published figures, then we also believe that the local governments of Northern Kano are more densely populated than all states of Nigeria aside from Lagos, Anambra, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Enugu, Abia, and and Abonyi.

So we must then believe that Northern Kano is more densely populated than Cross River, Delta, Abuja, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, and Ekiti.

We must also believe that Southern Kano is more densely populated than Delta State, and only slightly less dense than Osun.

Now, from what you know about Nigeria, do you believe that non-urban Kano State is more densely populated than some of the more populated places in the south?

Maybe some might not be convinced about the falseness of the Kano #s from this, but for me this alone is enough. Then you tack on some of the other data available and it becomes pretty clear that the #s are fake.

^^^^

First of all, what you did is really  impressive and thorough and comprehensive.

That said, I have never been to Kano and despite people's claim, very few people have been able to come up with a more believe figure. My beef with the UN values is that the UN never comes down to conduct their research, most of what they post are computer generated and when they are not, they are merely hear says from , probably disgruntled southerners,working at the UN.


Now going by your  conclusion that Kano's calculated density cannot be true because it places it above states like Osun, Ogun and some other states. I spent 6 yrs in Osun state, specifically in Ife and have been to Osogbo as well, and DK can correct me if I am wrong, Osun state is one of the least dense states in Nigeria, I dont have figures. But in Ife, you can go miles  and miles without any semblance of life beyond thick forests. even, if you look at the land mass OAU occupied, I have never seen anything else like that.  The same can be said about Ogun, at least, I have been to Ikenne and, if my recollection serves me right, while travelling through the town, I felt like I was in the middle of nowhere. Other places like CR, Delta, and Ekiti, I am not sure about.  And, going by what I have heard both on and off NL about Kano, I am inclined to believe the official figures.

Now, you also have to realize that there is a substantial difference in lifestyle. Southerners are more educated and more likely to migrate to the city while the northerners for most part still maintain their pre-independence lifestyle and are more likely to set up abode in the so called non urban area.

Until a credible census is conducted, this argument will continue to rear its ugly head.

Are we really serious about dislodging the PDP from Aso Rock. Election is in February, yet the main oppositions are battling withing choice of Vice President in Mid February. JEG has already started serious campaign acrross the country while the supposed competitors are still "preparing".

I hate to say this but it will be a miracle for any of this unserious opposition to defeat GEJ in April. I forsee another 4 years of PDP misrule in Nigeria and we shall thoroughly deserve it when it comes.

DK made a very salient point there. The INEC figures in question are not describing or estimating how many Nigerians we have in each of the geopolitical zones but how many Nigerians, in each of the zone, were of voting age and were actually able to get their names on the voters' register ( note that in Nigeria, there's also a difference between getting registered at the registration centre and actually having your name appear on the voters' register).
That said, I sincerely hope the ACN party cleans up her act sooner that later, or if they're not sure of what to do with their sure votes, they should merge with CPC and earn them some extra votes.
What do you say we get PDP outta Aso Rock?

I thought Ngige was running for a senatoral seat? Someone help

If ANC or Tinubu pairs Ribadu with this Ben Akabueze,then, they can as well Kiss goodbye to their presidential dream. No one, i mean know one knows this Akaabueze of a man in the east ,except of course in Lagos.Even in Lagos most Igbo's know that an Igbo man is one of Tinubu's commissioner.They don't even know his name.Dr Chris Ngige still remain a very popular candidate even beyond the east.

@ eku-bear,
thanks for that interesting analysis,am impressed

hugooh42:

If ANC or Tinubu pairs Ribadu with this Ben Akabueze,then, they can as well Kiss goodbye to their presidential dream. No one, i mean know one knows this Akaabueze of a man in the east ,except of course in Lagos.Even in Lagos most Igbo's know that an Igbo man is one of Tinubu's commissioner.They don't even know his name.Dr Chris Ngige still remain a very popular candidate even beyond the east.

good point

andyprez:

I thought Ngige was running for a senatoral seat? Someone help

it really does'nt matter

Ngige will make more sense than that Ben Akabueze

^^ Correct.

Lets vote for change, i think Ribadu/Ngige is just a big joke

Where is the change if may ask.

wont sell. The igbos ar givin der vote 2 GEJ

The population of Lagos can not be determine by voter's registration,
because the foreigners living in Lagos did not take part in the voters
registration exercise, but in the a lot of people came from Niger and Chad
to take part in the exercise, it was in the news. Kano has population in the
urban area, agreed but not in the rural area. I once lived in yobe state and
for sure their population can be compared to that of Ebonyi state in the SE.
The north has land mass, but their population is not more than ours.

as for Ribadu, Ngige Goodluck, I don't really care where they
are from, but what you they have to offer to Nigeria our great
Nation. Some one who is not corrupt, who have good dreams
for the nigeria, who is ready to render selfless services, to the
people of Nigeria.

Ngige? the guy that went to the shrine with a bible?, lol! smh!

Lagos is definitely populated more than kano, while Lagos is a con-urbation and to some extent a developing megalopolis, the same can not be said of kano, in fact, the fact that Lagos has consistently beaten kano as the state with the highest number of eligible voters raises questions about the Northern dominated Federal Government claims that kano is more populated than Lagos. The ability to count cows as human being by the north was instilled in them by Britain.

Since I've followed elections in Nigeria, Kano state figures always cancel out Lagos own.
When you talk about Kano, it's huge with many towns.

Sorry I think this poster is missing something here Lagos is most densely populated State in Nigeria let us not always play politics with everything, every Nigeria is aware that Lagos is much much more populated than any state in the country Kano can be huge in whatever or having lots of towns and so on but that is not what count in population figure what count is figure per head. Please dont take it personal just shedding more light to it for you ok.

Moreso the thread is not about population now but about Ribadu and his men in ACN I think ACN need to up and doing on time before is too late for them. And Ribadu is getting to know now what is all about politics he need to know that the leadership of any party take the most decision and it will be fine you abide by it and move on with them or against it and move out this is the truth.

Their is a great lesson to learn here "I am so surprise to see an Ibo man as a commisioner in Lagos state I could not belief this now my fello Ibo brothers can we all see it now that this same yoruba people we hated so much offer an ibo a commissioner post please can we do that for any other tribe in this country holding such a post in any eastern states?Lets ask ourselves.

I wish ACN goodluck but they must not waste too much time orelse it will have a serious effect on their chance of camaning to even retain their states. God bless

I quite disagree.
The order is:
NW>SW>SS>NC>NE>SE.

Kano is as populous as Lagos, remember Lagos is a city state whereas Kano has several cities/towns.
Every muslem, Nigerians and non-Nigerians, troop to Kano like Southerners troop to Lagos.


Mr,
i quite disagree with ur analysis. although kano is popuklous but don't u ever compare it to lagos.

its between the NW and the SW- point blank and im even tlking bar Lagos.

The South-West zone with its 15million votes is expected to be a deciding battlefield. This is because despite its recent loss of two additional states to the opposition, the PDP still remains a formidable political party. Buhari may have to forget about winning states like Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo. Lagos is a major determinantwith its six million registered voters. The candidate who has majority of that vote will get a large chunk of South-West votes. It seems to be in favour of the incumbent president and the ACN candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu,.

The voting exercise put SW with 15 million Lagos with 6 million minus Lagos etc . . the Population figure will still be 9-10 million only counting Ogun Osun Ekiti Oyo Ondo.

the deciding factor is definitely the SW- even during the PDP primaries Oyo has 150 delegates- only 120 voted.

so what ever obiajulu who concluded that dumb graph is out of his mind. BAR Lagos SW is a deciding factor

I quite disagree.
The order is:
NW>SW>SS>NC>NE>SE.

Kano is as populous as Lagos, remember Lagos is a city state whereas Kano has several cities/towns.
Every muslem, Nigerians and non-Nigerians, troop to Kano like Southerners troop to Lagos.


Mr,
i quite disagree with your analysis. although kano is popuklous but don't u ever compare it to lago

Alright it's ok. Thanks

bisiaet:


Their is a great lesson to learn here "I am so surprise to see an Ibo man as a commisioner in Lagos state I could not belief this now my fello Ibo brothers can we all see it now that this same yoruba people we hated so much offer an ibo a commissioner post please can we do that for any other tribe in this country holding such a post in any eastern states?Lets ask ourselves.

firstly who told u igbos hate Yorubas? igbos have disagreement with Yorubas but nt hatred.
then the commissioner issue, so a group that has been said to constitutes a good 35% of the economic strength of lagos, > 30 % of the population having only one or two commissioners is fair? i think not

btw, even in zamfara there is an igbo commissioner there.

macjive01:

firstly who told u igbos hate Yorubas? igbos have disagreement with Yorubas but nt hatred.
then the commissioner issue, so a group that has been said to constitutes a good 35% of the economic strength of lagos, > 30 % of the population having only one or two commissioners is fair? i think not

btw, even in zamfara there is an igbo commissioner there.

I thought it was 90%

The last time I checked it was 95%, but since the emergence of the OPC, the number, I heard, has been pegged to 90%.