fstranger3:

Cos it rhymes.    .   . you seem like one of those crazy people doing it.


Who else spends ridiculous amount of time studying Biafra and Nigerian history!

PhysicsRND:

I think the Kano state figures are made up, though. But at the same time I just don't believe population density can be used for any convincing arguments for the whole country.

eku_bear:

Well is sort of can. There is no reason to believe that the rural North has 5 or 10X the population density of the rural South. We'd then need to understand why the rural parts of the North are amongst the most densely populated "rural" regions of the world. . . such as Northern Kano State being as densely populated as Rhode Island, and not too far off from New Jersey. . .

eku_bear:

Hrm. Will dig into this data a bit more later tonight.

Does anyone have previous census data broken down by zone or region? Or what is a good place to find this sort of data?

asha 80:

http://www.mongabay.com/igapo/Nigeria.htm

PhysicsRND:

Is the population of Ibadan three times that of Benin City? 

I think whoever made that data messed up, unless they know something that I don't.

Ibadan (Yoruba: Ìbàdàn or fully Ìlú Ẹ̀bá-Ọ̀dàn, the town at the junction of the savannah and the forest) is the capital city of Oyo State and the third largest metropolitan area in Nigeria by population after Lagos and Kano according to the 2006 Nigerian census. Ibadan is also largest in geographical area.[citation needed] At independence, Ibadan was the largest and the most populous city in Nigeria and the third in Africa after Cairo and Johannesburg. It is located in south-western Nigeria, 128 km inland northeast of Lagos and 530 km southwest of Abuja, the federal capital and is a prominent transit point between the coastal region and the areas to the north. Its population is 1,338,659

Benin City, a city (2006 est. pop. 1,147,188) and capital of Edo State, southern Nigeria, is a city approximately twenty-five miles North of the Benin River. It is situated 200 miles by road east of Lagos. Benin is the center of Nigeria's rubber industry, but processing palm nuts for oil is still an important traditional industry

PhysicsRND:

Is the population of Ibadan three times that of Benin City? 

I think whoever made that data messed up, unless they know something that I don't.

eku_bear:

Also, what are your thoughts about the population of the 5 Igbo states? Understated, overstated?

Either Nigeria is far less populated than commonly believed, or some states are being dramatically underestimated population wise.

I sort of lean towards the latter, but sort of want more information.

I found the 1991 census data, btw: http://www.nigerianmuse.com/projects/ElectoralReformProject/?u=Nigeria_Census_1991.html

eku_bear:

UN ranked Ibadan around 1.4 million as of 1985. I'd be surprised if it didn't grow at all in 25 years. . .

I imagine that Lagos has sucked away a lot of manpower out of the SW, but natural population growth and those who choose to move to Ibadan rather than Lagos would also contribute to growth.

But I sort of understand the sentiment behind your statement. All these great empires of the past (Benin, Sokoto Emirate, Kanem-Borno Empire), somehow they seem to have been outbred by Yoruba and especially Igbo.

eku_bear:

@asha80: For sure, Igboland (after Lagos and on par with Akwa Ibom) is one of the more densely populated regions in Nigeria.

However, after seeing this inflation in Kano, I sort of thought there would be more #s in Anambra, Imo and the rest of the SE. My (wild guess) was that perhaps the total figure (140 million in the country as of 2006) was correct, but that they just shifted population from the SE to the North.

But if the population of the SE zone isn't that under-inflated, maybe Nigeria is just far less populated than we think. Or did they just slice a little bit of population from each region of the south and add it to the north?

I'm kind of confused a bit now.

eku_bear:

Hrm. Will dig into this data a bit more later tonight.

Does anyone have previous census data broken down by zone or region? Or what is a good place to find this sort of data?

Kilode?!:

Try this title: Military Rule and Population Issues in Nigeria Author: Aderanti Adepoju Source: African Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 318 (Jan., 1981), pp. 29-47


We've had Several academic research works done on the obvious population falsification that's been going on in Nigeria since the early 60s

You can use Jstor is you have the access. I'm not sure if I can post the particular article due to copyright issues, and NL spambot, But I got this info from the journal.

STATES   '63 in Mil     '73 in Mil          %change

North East         7,793         15,380             6"8

Kano                  5,775         10,900             6"4

North West        5,734         8,500               3"9

North Central     4,098         6,790               5 1

Benue Plateau   4,009         5,170               2.5

Kwara                2,399         4,640               6.6

West                  9,488         8,920            -0.62

Lagos                1,444          2,470              5.4

Mid-West           2,536          3,240              2.5

East Central      7,228           8,060             1.1

South East       3,526           3,460              -0.51

Rivers               1,545           2,230               3.7

Source: Extracted from the Daily Times, Friday 10 May, 1974 p. 1. (via  African Affairs article above)


As you can see from the table, The SW, SE and most of the non core North regions decreased dramatically(to say the least) from 1963 to 1973. those regions recorded negative percentages LOL. It's like people moved out of the SE and SW

Mind boggling really! The discrepancies were protested by leaders in the south according to the 1981 article, but it stood, and it was encouraged by our military rulers after that.



Read the journal and search for others works too.

IMO, Nigeria is the probably the only geographical area on earth where human population decreases as you get closer to the sea.

Now, I do not have conclusive evidence, but my take is that we have a huge population robbery going on in Nigeria. probably for sinister political power reasons since the late 50's to early 60's.

My country is an interesting case-study really.

Kilode?!:

STATES   '63 in Mil     '73 in Mil          %change
West                  9,488         8,920            -0.62

Lagos                1,444          2,470              5.4

fstranger3:

^^^

What are you basing your 3% population growth on?

Isnt 1.5% growth a better estimate?

We are long far from the years when people give birth like rats

and in terms of population migration to the SW, people come and go. Some come and from there travel out, some are there temporarily for jobs and more a lot of people actually do go back to their state of origin.

eku_bear:

^-- Cool! Yeah I'm still in the office so have JSTOR access.

I'll download and read that one, as well as any others you might suggest.

I came across this one: http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/content/87/349/553.full.pdf

Since the previous censuses in Nigeria had been marred by cases of inflated figures, as early as 1972, arrangements for another population census in 1973
became finalized. The figures though admitted as the most thorough head count anywhere in the world were greeted by a number of protests. Chief Awolowo became the first national politician to publicly reject the 1973 census when he claimed that the figures were absolutely unreliable. The 1973 census became the ‘last straw’ factor that led to the demise of Gowon’s administration. Gowon’s successor, General Murtala Muhammed declined to use the controversial 1973 population census. Instead, the 1963 population census continued to be used. The indignation over the 1973 population census had not been totally erased from the political board of Nigeria before the Babangida administration conducted the 1991 population census. This was contentious and
acrimonious. It became the most controversial and maligned exercise (Salaudeen, 2004). The figures showed that the population of the northern states had surged by 62% from 1963 figures to 47 million, the East by 50% to 18 million the West rose by 10% over a period of 30 years.

The  Government  Statistician  commented  that  there  was  good
reason to  suppose the  census figures to  be  'slightly  defective in  the
Northern Provinces and much in  defect in  the  Southern Provinces'.
He estimated that the figures were probably understated by about five
per cent in  the Northern Provinces, ten per cent in Lagos and in  the
Abeokuta, Benin,  Cameroons, Ijebu,  Ogoja,  Ondo,  Oyo,  and Warri
Provinces of Southern Nigeria,  and  fifteen to  twenty per cent in  the
Onitsha, Owerri, and Calabar Provinces of Eastern Nigeria.

The population of the Southern Provinces was given as 8,37I,000  in
I92I  and only 8,493,000  in  1931,  while that of the Northern Provinces
increased from 9,998,ooo  in  I92I  to  II,435,000  in  I93I;  this tends to
confirm the impression that the 1931 census gave a gross under-estimate
for  Southern Nigeria.

It  seems  obvious  that  all  population  figures
between  I900  and  I93I  were largely inaccurate and may  have  been
consistently under-estimated. It is remarkable, however, that so much
population data should be  available at  all during the period,
in view of the administrative difficulties, the lack of money, and the scarcity of
qualified personnel.

Owing  to  the war,  there was no  further census enumeration until
that of I950-3,  which was conducted at different times throughout the
country. The census of Lagos was conducted in I950-I,  that of Northern
Nigeria between May and July  i952,  Western and Midwestern Nigeria
in  December  1952  and January  I953,  and Eastern Nigeria in  May,
June,  and August 1953

eku_bear:

^-- Lol, right in the middle of reading it. Was just about to post the following image, Table 1:

http://i51.tinypic.com/ie0ccj.png

Breaks down the results of the various surveys over time.

Prof Sam Aluko seems to have more faith in the 1950-1953 total pop #s than the 1963 #s.

One of these other guys made a case for the 1950-1953 result undercounting, or something, though (will dig up the criticism in a bit.)

Thing is, if you use the 1963 # of 55.66 million and the 2006 # of ~140 million, you get an annual growth rate of 2.168%. Which seems extremely low for a 3rd world country like Nigeria over that period of time. 2.5% minimum is the smallest I'd guess over that time period. So Aluko's case for the 1963 #s being grossly inflated seems solid (unless we either believe that Nigeria's pop was more than 140 million as of 2006, or the country had a very small growth rate. I don't believe either of these things personally.)

On the other hand, if you use the 1950-1953 # of 30.42 million, and assume 30.42 mil in 1963, then you get a growth rate of 2.92%. Which seems pretty reasonable overall for Nigeria.

This is actually getting sort of fun, lol.