Read 4rm dis link http://sunnewsonline.com/webpages/news/national/2011/mar/29/national-29-03-2011-017.htm

Hmmn, a run-off? Same thing my dad said , looks like some folks know something we don't

I am one of those hoping for a runoff but as the days go by my confidence that a runoff with occur diminishes.

Buhari and Ribadu will not get 25% of the votes in 24 states period.

Jonathan is likely to win 25% in the following states:

Very Likely: 19 (Must get 25% in all 19)
Edo
Delta
Baylesa
Rivers
Cross River
Akwa Ibom
Abia
Enugu
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Plateau
Taraba
FCT
Kogi
Kwara
Benue
Lagos
Oyo

Likely: 3 (Must get 25% in all 3)
Ogun
Ondo
Osun

Battle Ground: 5 (Must get 25% in 2 out of 5)
Kaduna
Ekiti
Adamawa
Nasarawa
Niger

If Jonathan wins the popular vote and 25% in two of the battle ground states, then he wins on the first ballot.  Right now, I am pretty confident that he can get 25% in Ekiti and probably Kaduna.

My verdict is that for a runoff to happen, Buhari must win the popular vote.  He must spend the next 11 days in the Southwest: morning, noon, and night.  He must go to the markets, barber shops, churches, mosques, universities, restaurants.  Anywhere there is a registered voter in the SW, he must go.  Buhari must win 15% - 20% in the SW in order to make winning the popular vote probable.  I personally think he may need 25% in the SW to cement a popular vote victory.  This is my 2 cents.  I wish I was a Buhari campaign staffer. Even if it is as an unpaid adviser. I hope Buhari staffers are reading this.

danjohn:

I am one of those hoping for a runoff but as the days go by my confidence that a runoff with occur diminishes.

Buhari and Ribadu will not get 25% of the votes in 24 states period.

Jonathan is likely to win 25% in the following states:

Very Likely: 19 (Must get 25% in all 19)
Edo
Delta
Baylesa
Rivers
Cross River
Akwa Ibom
Abia
Enugu
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Plateau
Taraba
FCT
Kogi
Kwara
Benue
Lagos
Oyo

Likely: 3 (Must get 25% in all 3)
Ogun
Ondo
Osun

Battle Ground: 5 (Must get 25% in 2 out of 5)
Kaduna
Ekiti
Adamawa
Nasarawa
Niger

If Jonathan wins the popular vote and 25% in two of the battle ground states, then he wins on the first ballot.  Right now, I am pretty confident that he can get 25% in Ekiti and probably Kaduna.

My verdict is that for a runoff to happen, Buhari must win the popular vote.  He must spend the next 11 days in the Southwest: morning, noon, and night.  He must go to the markets, barber shops, churches, mosques, universities, restaurants.  Anywhere there is a registered vote in the SW, he must go.  Buhari must win 15% - 20% in the SW in order to make winning the popular vote probable.  I personally think he may need 25% in the SW to cement a popular vote victory.  This is my 2 cents.  I wish I was a Buhari campaign staffer.  Even if it is as an unpaid adviser.  I hope they have staffers reading this.

i think they know what they're doing.

just make sure you vote.