OSINBAJO’S 2023 DILEMMA:
WHY HE MAY NOT RUN

BY. DR. GBENGA ADEFULU

Without any iota of doubt, Tinubu is Osinbajo’s benefactor. In fact, everything Osinbajo has achieved politically has had the imprimatur of Tinubu. From his first political job as Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos (1999 – 2007) and taking Tinubu’s VP slot on the APC presidential ticket in 2015 on a platter of gold, Osinbajo has ridden on the back of Tinubu. Where was Osinbajo when Tinubu bankrolled the party and sustained it through its metamorphosis from AD to AC, ACN, forged alliance with CPC after meeting Buhari which culminated in the merger of parties and eventual formation of APC? If anyone is asked: who owns APC today? The answer is SW/Tinubu and the North. In simple terms, Tinubu brought Osinbajo out of political obscurity. Osinbajo on his own has never contested an election or funded one? Even as running mate to Buhari, he lost his Ajah polling unit in 2019 and thereafter quietly relocated his polling unit to his hometown of Ikenne, Ogun State apparently in a bid to contest for the presidency in 2023 after the humbling and chastising in Lagos.

Given the foregoing, it is understandable that the camp of Tinubu will consider Osinbajo a traitor and betrayer for daring (or currently being rumoured) to contest the 2023 APC presidential primaries with his benefactor. In fact, it is the audacity of Osinbajo for them. Anyway, let’s assume Osinbajo decides to contest the primaries with Tinubu, what are his chances of winning the APC ticket (the fight) and more importantly, how would he win the 2023 presidential election (the war)? I will interrogate ‘the fight’ and ‘the war’ in succession.

The fight: There are two parts to the fight. Part A is funding the primary election. Can Osinbajo match Tinubu at the APC presidential primaries pound-for-pound and dollar-for-dollar? Does he have the financial warchest to buy over delegates? In 2014, Buhari said he took a loan to buy his APC nomination form. Could Buhari have defeated Atiku in the December 2014 APC presidential primaries without Tinubu mobilizing great financial resources to counter Atiku’s financial spend? Several groups including journalists, media broadcasters and TV commentators have recently called on Osinbajo to throw his hat in the ring against his benefactor. How many of these persons can assure Osinbajo of one delegate’s vote at the APC primaries? Even former Niger State Governor, Babangida Aliyu, a PDP member, recently endorsed Osinbajo. Can Aliyu deliver any delegate’s vote to Osinbajo at the APC primaries? How can the CEO of Coca Cola be recommending CEO candidates to Pepsi if not for sinister reasons? We will discuss more on the baleful objective of Aliyu’s endorsement later.

It may interest the reader to know that Osinbajo may not even know the chairman of his ward in Ikenne LGA in Ogun State. Does he know how votes are farmed out on election day proper? Is it for fun that Tinubu had bullion vans on election day in 2019? The reader is entreated to judge. As of today, can Osinbajo beat his chest and claim with foolproof assurance that he has any number of hardcore delegates on his side? Tinubu has delegates of Lagos, Osun, Ogun, Oyo, half of Ondo, Kano, Katsina, Kwara, Bauchi, Niger, Edo, Delta and Borno in the bag. If Fayemi joins the race, Fayemi has Ekiti delegates and maybe Kaduna and half on Ondo. For the delegates in the non-APC states (South South and South East predominantly), it is the highest bidder game. Does Osinbajo have the warchest to match Tinubu for the other states delegates in the North?

On the flip side, if Tinubu defeats Osinbajo at the APC primaries, that will be the end of Osinbajo’s political relevance in the South West. He will be totally ostracized and shamed for even having the audacity to wrestle with his benefactor. There have been threats of probable ostracization of Osinbajo from the APC South West political family should he even declare intention to contest the primaries with Tinubu. According to insiders in the Tinubu camp, “if not for blind greed and inordinate ambition, why will Osinbajo enjoy 8 years as VP on Tinubu’s slot (and sweat building a party) given on a platter of gold and not want to yield space for the next 8 years?” “Is he the only one?” “How ungrateful!”

The war: Let’s assume that Osinbajo defeats Tinubu at the primaries? How would he win the 2023 general presidential election against the PDP candidate (Atiku or Tambuwal or Bala Muhammed)? To start with, the fall-out of a Tinubu losing the primaries will be massive. First, Tinubu will be so bitter and will simply tell his APC goons in the South West to vote for PDP in 2023 just like he did in 2011 when ACN states voted for Jonathan based on some agreement Jonathan had with Tinubu. Does Osinbajo have the financial resources to mobilize for votes on election day, oil political machinery and so on starting from polling units to ward, local government, senatorial and state levels? Again, can Osinbajo farm out votes on election day without Tinubu? Can he connect and speak the language of the grassroots like MC Olumo who form a major plank of the Tinubu political machinery and vote-farming team on election day?

Some people say Osinbajo is a ‘saint’. Why wouldn’t he be a ‘saint’ when he has never built, funded and sustained a political machinery or party? There are over 176,000 polling units in Nigeria. How does a party mobilize its agents to man each polling unit to monitor and record votes, pay them, feed them, provide them logistics and so on? Has Osinbajo ever had to do all these? Where does the reader think the money will come from? Well, if he wins the APC ticket, he would have to do all these himself in 2023. He has never gotten his hands dirty because he has always gotten everything on a platter of gold. If Tinubu doesn’t get his hands dirty, how would there even be a party in the first place that Osinbajo would dream of flying its ticket? The price for the financial ‘dirtiness’ of Tinubu is the creation of a vibrant political party called APC which was able to wrestle power from PDP and on whose platform a ‘saint’ is anchoring his presidential dream. If Osinbajo is indeed a saint, he should follow the footsteps of Kingsley Moghalu, Attahiru Jega and Oby Ezekwesilili or Fela Durotoye by creating his own party from scratch, funding it and flying its presidential ticket. It is laughable when you hear Osinbajo’s support groups calling on Buhari/APC not to allow moneybags and politicians who have gotten their hands dirty to hijack the party? Such incredulity!

A politician who does not know how votes are procured or how elective and appointive positions are shared through horse-trading, compromises and so on among several interest groups and tendencies within a party will not appreciate the responsibility that comes with public office after assuming power. One of such poor judgement and utter lack of discretion was the sacking of Babachir Lawal by Osinbajo which irked the famed cabal/Aso Villa kitchen cabinet. As a smart politician, were Tinubu the Acting president, he would never have sacked Lawal because he knows Lawal represents some constituencies/interests within the party. At best, perhaps a suspension or directive to proceed on indefinite leave would have been fair. Apparently, Osinbajo strongly believed Buhari will succumb to his illness. Till date, Osinbajo has not been forgiven by the cabal for that action and several other missteps while in acting president’s capacity and they so much detest and do not trust him. When manna falls on your laps without even asking for it, you will never appreciate it. But if you toiled hard for it, you will value and guard jealously every ounce of it. Should such a fellow be given the Presidency on a platter of gold again, he will do incalculable damage. The North will not even risk it.

Also, several confirmed sources in Aso Villa alleged Buhari is in possession of a tape where Osinbajo gloated about taking power through a re-enactment of the ‘Yar-Adua—Jonathan model’ while Buhari was battling ill-health in the UK. Furthermore, he was reported to have been saying a loud ‘Amen’ to prayers at one of the RCCG parishes in Ogun State for “God to instantly elevate him to higher position without further delay” during Buhari’s illness which means God should take Buhari’s soul and pave the way for a substantive Osinbajo presidency. Such a fellow will never be allowed to smell the seat of the presidency as he is clearly inordinately ambitious.

Part B of ‘the fight’ is winning the 2023 election proper. In terms of voting pattern, the South South and South East will give 90% of their votes to PDP (Atiku or Tambuwal). A bitter Tinubu will deliver South West to PDP or at worst (due to Yoruba sentiments for Osinbajo), split South West votes 50:50 between PDP and APC. For the Southern Nigeria voting pattern, the probable best result is 0.5 APC/Osinbajo and 2.5 PDP/Atiku/Tambuwal.

For the Northern votes, this is where the challenge lies for Osinbajo. Atiku or Tambuwal are Northerners and Muslims. They connect to the people in terms of ethnicity and religion. Osinbajo has no conncection with them. In any case, Buhari’s secret candidate whom he does’t want to disclose or anyone to kill is Amaechi and not Osinbajo. Can Osinbajo, a Christian/Yoruba defeat Atiku/Tambuwal in the North West and North East? Never. What PDP needs to do is just tell the Northerners that Osinbajo is a Kafir (unbeliever) and it is a done deal. To make matters worse, Osinbajo is a Pastor. He will be easily de-marketed in North by PDP. In fact, this is one of the reasons Babangida Aliyu endorsed Osinbajo. Osinbajo flying APC’s presidential ticket in 2023 will make the job of PDP winning the election easier.

The only way Osinbajo would win the 2023 presidential election is for PDP to field an Igbo man as presidential candidate. Not for anything in this world will the North vote an Igbo man. The PDP has realized this and that is why their strategy to reclaim the presidency is to do whatever it takes at all costs to win. That all-costs strategy is anchored on fielding a Northern Muslim. Even the Igbos themselves realized this and that is why David Umahi decamped from PDP to APC. Also, the Igbos are content getting VP slot under PDP and are not making much of a fuss about the rumoured interest of Tambuwal, Atiku and possibly Saraki in the PDP presidential ticket. As far as the Igbos are concerned, they would rather a Northerner wins than allow their eternal rivals, the SW win the presidency. Do not mind their grandstanding on zoning the ticket to South or South East lest heaven falls. It is no surprise that the one who hurriedly stormed Aso Villa to inform Buhari of his presidential ambition after Asiwaju did on January 10 has retreated to his village waiting for the presidency to fall on his laps while Tinubu aggressively pursues country-wide consultations and is securing endorsements concurrently almost on daily basis.

A Tinubu/Northern Muslim VP ticket is more sellable and stands a better chance of winning in the North in particular and in the entire country in general than an Osinbajo/Northern Muslim VP ticket for two reasons: faith handicap of Osinbajo and weak financial warchest. It is not for fun that Buhari failed on three occasions in the presidential elections and only succeeded at the fourth attempt after being packaged by Tinubu. A great political mistake anyone will make is underrating the importance, criticality and grassroots mobilization impact of Tinubu. It is not for fun that Fayemi visited Tinubu on the upcoming Ekiti APC guber primaries slated for January 27 in order to forge a common ground. Even if Fayemi's preferred candidate emerges APC’s guber flagbearer, the election proper on June 18 still has to be funded and prosecuted. You will not bet against Tinubu telling his supporters to vote for the opposition and even funding the opposition thereby stretching the limits of the meagre financial resources of Fayemi/Ekiti state. Even if Fayemi's candidate wins the guber election proper in June against the backdrop of a disenchanted Tinubu, victory would have been achieved at so great a cost that Fayemi will be left with no oxygen and financial firepower to even pursue his rumoured dream of participating in the APC presidential primaries.

Given the foregoing, head or tail, the 2023 election is a tall order for Osinbajo. The probability of Osinbajo winning 2023 is slimmer than a thread passing through the eye of a needle. Osinbajo needs Tinubu to win 2023 more than Tinubu needs Osinabajo to win. In fact, Tinubu does not need Osinbajo to win. Tinubu is a fighting machine on his own and a tested war general. For Osinbajo to succeed in the fight and more importantly, win the war, at the minimum, he needs Tinubu on his side. Definitely, going head-to-head with Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket is not the right strategy to get Tinubu on his side. This is the crux of Osinbajo’s 2023 dilemma. Enough said!
-Adapted by Rotimi Adebayo.

*My Advice!*

Promote your candidate.

Don't insult another person's candidate.

Don't insult your brother or friend, you might need him after elections.

The brother you insult today might be more relevant to your candidate than you.

Should your candidate succeed, you may be forgotten.

Should your candidate succeed, your reward may not be proportional to the goodwill you would have lost or the enemies you would have made in the course of supporting him/her.

In expressing support, watch the legal borders. Should you run into trouble in the process, you are on your own. Your candidate will abandon you.

Some of you don't even have direct access to your candidate, if so, you are still in elementary 1 of politics, so calm down.

Prepare your mind that the candidate you are supporting might loose. This will help you develop shock absorber.

Work hard for your candidate to succeed in the field, don't limit your activities to the social media. No matter how you insult in the course of supporting your candidate, you are not as important to him/her as that delegate/prospective delegate who doesn't have access to the social media.

Conduct yourself properly so that your activities on the social media won't discourage prospective supporters/sympathizers of your candidate.

Pursue your vocation/profession with renewed vigour. Politics shouldn't be played full time. Take note, no politician can pay your bills.

Explore life positively, put your minds in other aspects of life's endeavors, you would have realized how distracted you have been fixing your minds in politics and political positions.

Political positions are not the most satisfying and rewarding positions. Build a career and be known for something.

As we move gradually into elections, play safe and be safe. Your life and safety should be most important consideration to you.
Remember that *Once have I spoken, twice have I heard that power belongs to God.*
Above all, pray ceaselessly.

Whether Osinbanjo or Tinubu contest nai contest from Southwest, dem go still lose. North continues in 2023.

A proud South southerner.

He cares he runs or not the next Presidency is for Igbos.

Pius Anyim for President
Peter Obi for President



God punish all others.

Waiting on outcome of PDP primaries and Ohaneze framework. Better for Igbos to try and lose (God forbid it) than to sit down and shout "North." Which North?

He has seen the writing on the wall

I've said it before and I will say it again Tinubu and Osibanjo won't be president in 2023

The next president has an Igbo name to his names you can be rest assured

God bless the federal republic of Nigeria

Useless write up. The fact that tinubu funded APC doesn't mean he will ever smell presidency seat or rule Nigeria.

Tinubu will never be president of Nigeria. It is also no just for Osibanjo a YouTube man, to succeed Buhari in 2023

[quote author=d61073 post=109805256]OSINBAJO’S 2023 DILEMMA:
WHY HE MAY NOT RUN

BY. DR. GBENGA ADEFULU

Without any iota of doubt, Tinubu is Osinbajo’s benefactor. In fact, everything Osinbajo has achieved politically has had the imprimatur of Tinubu. From his first political job as Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos (1999 – 2007) and taking Tinubu’s VP slot on the APC presidential ticket in 2015 on a platter of gold, Osinbajo has ridden on the back of Tinubu. Where was Osinbajo when Tinubu bankrolled the party and sustained it through its metamorphosis from AD to AC, ACN, forged alliance with CPC after meeting Buhari which culminated in the merger of parties and eventual formation of APC? If anyone is asked: who owns APC today? The answer is SW/Tinubu and the North. In simple terms, Tinubu brought Osinbajo out of political obscurity. Osinbajo on his own has never contested an election or funded one? Even as running mate to Buhari, he lost his Ajah polling unit in 2019 and thereafter quietly relocated his polling unit to his hometown of Ikenne, Ogun State apparently in a bid to contest for the presidency in 2023 after the humbling and chastising in Lagos.

Given the foregoing, it is understandable that the camp of Tinubu will consider Osinbajo a traitor and betrayer for daring (or currently being rumoured) to contest the 2023 APC presidential primaries with his benefactor. In fact, it is the audacity of Osinbajo for them. Anyway, let’s assume Osinbajo decides to contest the primaries with Tinubu, what are his chances of winning the APC ticket (the fight) and more importantly, how would he win the 2023 presidential election (the war)? I will interrogate ‘the fight’ and ‘the war’ in succession.

The fight: There are two parts to the fight. Part A is funding the primary election. Can Osinbajo match Tinubu at the APC presidential primaries pound-for-pound and dollar-for-dollar? Does he have the financial warchest to buy over delegates? In 2014, Buhari said he took a loan to buy his APC nomination form. Could Buhari have defeated Atiku in the December 2014 APC presidential primaries without Tinubu mobilizing great financial resources to counter Atiku’s financial spend? Several groups including journalists, media broadcasters and TV commentators have recently called on Osinbajo to throw his hat in the ring against his benefactor. How many of these persons can assure Osinbajo of one delegate’s vote at the APC primaries? Even former Niger State Governor, Babangida Aliyu, a PDP member, recently endorsed Osinbajo. Can Aliyu deliver any delegate’s vote to Osinbajo at the APC primaries? How can the CEO of Coca Cola be recommending CEO candidates to Pepsi if not for sinister reasons? We will discuss more on the baleful objective of Aliyu’s endorsement later.

It may interest the reader to know that Osinbajo may not even know the chairman of his ward in Ikenne LGA in Ogun State. Does he know how votes are farmed out on election day proper? Is it for fun that Tinubu had bullion vans on election day in 2019? The reader is entreated to judge. As of today, can Osinbajo beat his chest and claim with foolproof assurance that he has any number of hardcore delegates on his side? Tinubu has delegates of Lagos, Osun, Ogun, Oyo, half of Ondo, Kano, Katsina, Kwara, Bauchi, Niger, Edo, Delta and Borno in the bag. If Fayemi joins the race, Fayemi has Ekiti delegates and maybe Kaduna and half on Ondo. For the delegates in the non-APC states (South South and South East predominantly), it is the highest bidder game. Does Osinbajo have the warchest to match Tinubu for the other states delegates in the North?

On the flip side, if Tinubu defeats Osinbajo at the APC primaries, that will be the end of Osinbajo’s political relevance in the South West. He will be totally ostracized and shamed for even having the audacity to wrestle with his benefactor. There have been threats of probable ostracization of Osinbajo from the APC South West political family should he even declare intention to contest the primaries with Tinubu. According to insiders in the Tinubu camp, “if not for blind greed and inordinate ambition, why will Osinbajo enjoy 8 years as VP on Tinubu’s slot (and sweat building a party) given on a platter of gold and not want to yield space for the next 8 years?” “Is he the only one?” “How ungrateful!”

The war: Let’s assume that Osinbajo defeats Tinubu at the primaries? How would he win the 2023 general presidential election against the PDP candidate (Atiku or Tambuwal or Bala Muhammed)? To start with, the fall-out of a Tinubu losing the primaries will be massive. First, Tinubu will be so bitter and will simply tell his APC goons in the South West to vote for PDP in 2023 just like he did in 2011 when ACN states voted for Jonathan based on some agreement Jonathan had with Tinubu. Does Osinbajo have the financial resources to mobilize for votes on election day, oil political machinery and so on starting from polling units to ward, local government, senatorial and state levels? Again, can Osinbajo farm out votes on election day without Tinubu? Can he connect and speak the language of the grassroots like MC Olumo who form a major plank of the Tinubu political machinery and vote-farming team on election day?

Some people say Osinbajo is a ‘saint’. Why wouldn’t he be a ‘saint’ when he has never built, funded and sustained a political machinery or party? There are over 176,000 polling units in Nigeria. How does a party mobilize its agents to man each polling unit to monitor and record votes, pay them, feed them, provide them logistics and so on? Has Osinbajo ever had to do all these? Where does the reader think the money will come from? Well, if he wins the APC ticket, he would have to do all these himself in 2023. He has never gotten his hands dirty because he has always gotten everything on a platter of gold. If Tinubu doesn’t get his hands dirty, how would there even be a party in the first place that Osinbajo would dream of flying its ticket? The price for the financial ‘dirtiness’ of Tinubu is the creation of a vibrant political party called APC which was able to wrestle power from PDP and on whose platform a ‘saint’ is anchoring his presidential dream. If Osinbajo is indeed a saint, he should follow the footsteps of Kingsley Moghalu, Attahiru Jega and Oby Ezekwesilili or Fela Durotoye by creating his own party from scratch, funding it and flying its presidential ticket. It is laughable when you hear Osinbajo’s support groups calling on Buhari/APC not to allow moneybags and politicians who have gotten their hands dirty to hijack the party? Such incredulity!

A politician who does not know how votes are procured or how elective and appointive positions are shared through horse-trading, compromises and so on among several interest groups and tendencies within a party will not appreciate the responsibility that comes with public office after assuming power. One of such poor judgement and utter lack of discretion was the sacking of Babachir Lawal by Osinbajo which irked the famed cabal/Aso Villa kitchen cabinet. As a smart politician, were Tinubu the Acting president, he would never have sacked Lawal because he knows Lawal represents some constituencies/interests within the party. At best, perhaps a suspension or directive to proceed on indefinite leave would have been fair. Apparently, Osinbajo strongly believed Buhari will succumb to his illness. Till date, Osinbajo has not been forgiven by the cabal for that action and several other missteps while in acting president’s capacity and they so much detest and do not trust him. When manna falls on your laps without even asking for it, you will never appreciate it. But if you toiled hard for it, you will value and guard jealously every ounce of it. Should such a fellow be given the Presidency on a platter of gold again, he will do incalculable damage. The North will not even risk it.

Also, several confirmed sources in Aso Villa alleged Buhari is in possession of a tape where Osinbajo gloated about taking power through a re-enactment of the ‘Yar-Adua—Jonathan model’ while Buhari was battling ill-health in the UK. Furthermore, he was reported to have been saying a loud ‘Amen’ to prayers at one of the RCCG parishes in Ogun State for “God to instantly elevate him to higher position without further delay” during Buhari’s illness which means God should take Buhari’s soul and pave the way for a substantive Osinbajo presidency. Such a fellow will never be allowed to smell the seat of the presidency as he is clearly inordinately ambitious.

Part B of ‘the fight’ is winning the 2023 election proper. In terms of voting pattern, the South South and South East will give 90% of their votes to PDP (Atiku or Tambuwal). A bitter Tinubu will deliver South West to PDP or at worst (due to Yoruba sentiments for Osinbajo), split South West votes 50:50 between PDP and APC. For the Southern Nigeria voting pattern, the probable best result is 0.5 APC/Osinbajo and 2.5 PDP/Atiku/Tambuwal.

For the Northern votes, this is where the challenge lies for Osinbajo. Atiku or Tambuwal are Northerners and Muslims. They connect to the people in terms of ethnicity and religion. Osinbajo has no conncection with them. In any case, Buhari’s secret candidate whom he does’t want to disclose or anyone to kill is Amaechi and not Osinbajo. Can Osinbajo, a Christian/Yoruba defeat Atiku/Tambuwal in the North West and North East? Never. What PDP needs to do is just tell the Northerners that Osinbajo is a Kafir (unbeliever) and it is a done deal. To make matters worse, Osinbajo is a Pastor. He will be easily de-marketed in North by PDP. In fact, this is one of the reasons Babangida Aliyu endorsed Osinbajo. Osinbajo flying APC’s presidential ticket in 2023 will make the job of PDP winning the election easier.

The only way Osinbajo would win the 2023 presidential election is for PDP to field an Igbo man as presidential candidate. Not for anything in this world will the North vote an Igbo man. The PDP has realized this and that is why their strategy to reclaim the presidency is to do whatever it takes at all costs to win. That all-costs strategy is anchored on fielding a Northern Muslim. Even the Igbos themselves realized this and that is why David Umahi decamped from PDP to APC. Also, the Igbos are content getting VP slot under PDP and are not making much of a fuss about the rumoured interest of Tambuwal, Atiku and possibly Saraki in the PDP presidential ticket. As far as the Igbos are concerned, they would rather a Northerner wins than allow their eternal rivals, the SW win the presidency. Do not mind their grandstanding on zoning the ticket to South or South East lest heaven falls. It is no surprise that the one who hurriedly stormed Aso Villa to inform Buhari of his presidential ambition after Asiwaju did on January 10 has retreated to his village waiting for the presidency to fall on his laps while Tinubu aggressively pursues country-wide consultations and is securing endorsements concurrently almost on daily basis.

A Tinubu/Northern Muslim VP ticket is more sellable and stands a better chance of winning in the North in particular and in the entire country in general than an Osinbajo/Northern Muslim VP ticket for two reasons: faith handicap of Osinbajo and weak financial warchest. It is not for fun that Buhari failed on three occasions in the presidential elections and only succeeded at the fourth attempt after being packaged by Tinubu. A great political mistake anyone will make is underrating the importance, criticality and grassroots mobilization impact of Tinubu. It is not for fun that Fayemi visited Tinubu on the upcoming Ekiti APC guber primaries slated for January 27 in order to forge a common ground. Even if Fayemi's preferred candidate emerges APC’s guber flagbearer, the election proper on June 18 still has to be funded and prosecuted. You will not bet against Tinubu telling his supporters to vote for the opposition and even funding the opposition thereby stretching the limits of the meagre financial resources of Fayemi/Ekiti state. Even if Fayemi's candidate wins the guber election proper in June against the backdrop of a disenchanted Tinubu, victory would have been achieved at so great a cost that Fayemi will be left with no oxygen and financial firepower to even pursue his rumoured dream of participating in the APC presidential primaries.

Given the foregoing, head or tail, the 2023 election is a tall order for Osinbajo. The probability of Osinbajo winning 2023 is slimmer than a thread passing through the eye of a needle. Osinbajo needs Tinubu to win 2023 more than Tinubu needs Osinabajo to win. In fact, Tinubu does not need Osinbajo to win. Tinubu is a fighting machine on his own and a tested war general. For Osinbajo to succeed in the fight and more importantly, win the war, at the minimum, he needs Tinubu on his side. Definitely, going head-to-head with Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket is not the right strategy to get Tinubu on his side. This is the crux of Osinbajo’s 2023 dilemma. Enough said!
-Adapted by Rotimi Adebayo.[/quo




You spent so much energy in making this write up. I wonder if the pay is worth it! You did not say anything about Nigerians that are tired of the status quo, and they are the final decision maker. As of Tinubu and Osinbanjo, the masses will prefer the latter, because he is not a politician. Forget about betrayal, a lot of things is at stake. Tinubu betrayed people too . You and I Know Osinbanjo is better off for the job.

. As far as the Igbos are concerned, they would rather a Northerner wins than allow their eternal rivals, the SW win the presidency. Do not mind their grandstanding on zoning the ticket to South or South East lest heaven falls. It is no surprise that the one who hurriedly stormed Aso Villa to inform Buhari of his presidential ambition after Asiwaju did on January 10 has retreated to his village waiting for the presidency to fall on his laps while Tinubu aggressively pursues country-wide consultations and is securing endorsements concurrently almost on daily basis.

We know their intention already and we have a plan in place to deal with them.

@ OP, Although you started very biased against Osinbanjo….but I eventually got each of your points clearly. You sound like one with insider info and if that is anything to go by….it’s really a tall order for Osinbanjo.

Smile i am ok so far the south west will be getting it, i dont have any problem some minority will be pained with this

Given the foregoing, head or tail, the 2023 election is a tall order for Osinbajo. The probability of Osinbajo winning 2023 is slimmer than a thread passing through the eye of a needle. Osinbajo needs Tinubu to win 2023 more than Tinubu needs Osinabajo to win. In fact, Tinubu does not need Osinbajo to win. Tinubu is a fighting machine on his own and a tested war general. For Osinbajo to succeed in the fight and more importantly, win the war, at the minimum, he needs Tinubu on his side.

The part in bold is the absolute truth. That’s why I would continue to appeal to Osinbajo supporters to go about the campaign with sense. Osinbajo needs Tinubu more than Tinubu needs him. Ojudu and others like him who are on the side of the VP should not complicate things for him.

Baawaa:
*My Advice!*

Promote your candidate.

Don't insult another person's candidate.

Don't insult your brother or friend, you might need him after elections.

The brother you insult today might be more relevant to your candidate than you.

Should your candidate succeed, you may be forgotten.

Should your candidate succeed, your reward may not be proportional to the goodwill you would have lost or the enemies you would have made in the course of supporting him/her.

In expressing support, watch the legal borders. Should you run into trouble in the process, you are on your own. Your candidate will abandon you.

Some of you don't even have direct access to your candidate, if so, you are still in elementary 1 of politics, so calm down.

Prepare your mind that the candidate you are supporting might loose. This will help you develop shock absorber.

Work hard for your candidate to succeed in the field, don't limit your activities to the social media. No matter how you insult in the course of supporting your candidate, you are not as important to him/her as that delegate/prospective delegate who doesn't have access to the social media.

Conduct yourself properly so that your activities on the social media won't discourage prospective supporters/sympathizers of your candidate.

Pursue your vocation/profession with renewed vigour. Politics shouldn't be played full time. Take note, no politician can pay your bills.

Explore life positively, put your minds in other aspects of life's endeavors, you would have realized how distracted you have been fixing your minds in politics and political positions.

Political positions are not the most satisfying and rewarding positions. Build a career and be known for something.

As we move gradually into elections, play safe and be safe. Your life and safety should be most important consideration to you.
Remember that *Once have I spoken, twice have I heard that power belongs to God.*
Above all, pray ceaselessly.

when Igbos were promoting their candidate in 2015 you guys were pulling them down and giving them insult of their lives And you think they will forget too quick.
Karma is a bastard.
Your hypocrite stinks.

The Koko is Tinubu's camp is fronting two candidates. Either of them is a win win for tinubu

seunmsg:


We know their intention already and we have a plan in place to deal with them.

Seen.

Back to the topic, this Hatchet man says the buharis preferred candidate which he must keep secret lest they kill him is Amaechi.

seunmsg:


The part in bold is the absolute truth. That’s why I would continue to appeal to Osinbajo supporters to go about the campaign with sense. Osinbajo needs Tinubu more than Tinubu needs him. Ojudu and others like him who are on the side of the VP should not complicate things for him.

Did osunbande anywhere or anytime tell any of you village people he was contesting presidential elections

BeardedmeatR:
Seen.

Back to the topic, this Hatchet man says the buharis preferred candidate which he must keep secret lest they kill him is Amaechi.

It’s a democracy so Amaechi is welcomed to join the presidential race. I will definitely support him if he emerged as the candidate of APC.

Osinbajo will only contest if he gets Buhari's support, if he does not he we will simply thank God and go back to his law profession after all he has achieved more than Tinubu in the political space.

But Tinubu can never smell the presidency , he is just trying to play a spoiler role. If you think Tinubu stand a chance in the North, then you are just deceiving yourself. Tinubu is perceived as very greedy and dubious, A Buhari who campaigned on integrity can not and will not campaign for a candidate who is perceived to have sold Lagos to himself and relatives.

His pedigree that is shrouded in a miasma of dubiety will count against him, the Yorubas have already given his real enemies all the information they need to use against him, when the real politicking starts - The north will only need to interpret those information provided by the Yorubas of course to their people in Hausa. Nobody will vote for someone who wants to sell Naijiriya.

You say Tinubu is a moslem, please tell a Hausa person that Tinubu's wife is a pastor and watch him hiss in disgust, a Tinubu whose wife is a pastor is a christian as far as the north is concerned, if he chooses a fellow Moslem, APC will be blackmailed and called an Islamic party, the international community ever careful of ensuring that Nigeria's precarious unity is maintained will indirectly pressure Buhari to discourage such, many Northern politicians will not like it and Buhari himself had told Tinubu in 2015 that he will never support a Muslim - Muslim ticket

The truth is : as powerful as Tinubu is in the Southwest, he has never been able to deliver up to 60% of southwest votes to his party at any time, in the last election PDP got as much as 48% of votes cast in the presidential election, in fact PDP got more votes in the southwest (1.7mn) than in the south east (1.65mn) you see and that was when the critical pentecostal christians were with Tinubu because of Osinbajo.
in 2023 if the pentecostals( and they are very fanatical) feel that their choice candidate was stopped by Tinubu you can guess what will happen.

So if Tinubu is unable to deliver the majority of votes cast in his stronghold how do you think he will be able to win. Look at the antecedents of past Yoruba leaders who took a shot at the presidency - Awolowo: got more than 80% of votes cast in the south west. Abiola did same. Obasanjo was an exception but in his first term he had the northern votes to compensate, in his second term realizing that he may have lost the critical northern vote, he rallied the south west and got more than 80% of the votes. Can Tinubu do this? If he doesn't how will he win? South south wont vote for him, south east wont vote for him middle belt will not vote him and of course the North will not vote massively for a candidate not there own, he will be extremely lucky to get 40% of votes cast there. His money can't buy all the votes ask Goodluck, the people deceiving him in the north simply collected his money and scrammed.

Tinubu at the end of the day will be brought down to earth, all the hype will be deflated, he will lose so bad he will be hurt, the most painful part is that people will say: Even his people did not vote for him.

THIS IS THE BEST WRITE UP HAVE SEEN ON NAIRALAND

[quote author=Munamu post=109805664][/quote]

All what you have penned up there is on one side of the equation, while PMB the balancing side.

If PMB, as the leader of the party, bulges and endorses PYO, that's game up for bullion van!

Long story short!

seunmsg:


We know their intention already and we have a plan in place to deal with them.

My dear, there’s no plan to stop South East because if you want to stop them, you will stop yourself. That’s why Tinubu camp has remained silent on South East while Atiku camp is begging. Go and read The PDP report on 2023 presidential elections. The team chaired by gov of Bauchi said that only two zones should be assuaged: South East and North East.
In APC, the hierarchy have finally had their way on consensus candidate. Tinubu camp have kicked against it, but there’s nothing they can do. Because if the East doesn’t vote in 2023, which can easily be achieved through IPOB sit-at-home, it will be a serious problem.
The plan is to either give Amaechi the ticket or Ogbonnaya Onuh.
Igbos will never vote a northerner. It will never happen in 2023. The worst is, no election.
But just be assured that none of Tinubu or Osibanjo shall be on the ticket.

JaroMan:

My dear, there’s no plan to stop South East because if you want to stop them, you will stop yourself. That’s why Tinubu camp has remained silent on South East while Atiku camp is begging. Go and read The PDP report on 2023 presidential elections. The team chaired by gov of Bauchi said that only two zones should be assuaged: South East and North East.
In APC, the hierarchy have finally had their way on consensus candidate. Tinubu camp have kicked against it, but there’s nothing they can do. Because if the East doesn’t vote in 2023, which can easily be achieved through IPOB sit-at-home, it will be a serious problem.
The plan is to either give Amaechi the ticket or Ogbonnaya Onuh.
Igbos will never vote a northerner. It will never happen in 2023. The worst is, no election.
But just be assured that none of Tinubu or Osibanjo shall be on the ticket.

I think Amaechi will be a compromise to the South East and Igbos. He is the only igbo I know the north will support, given the favour he has done to the north as transport minister and his popularity among northern governors during the time of Jonathan. Remember he won the chairmanship of the Governors forum with mainly northern votes against Jonathan's northern candidate.

But then will the Igbos and south east support Amaechi. He is viewed as a traitor among core Igbos.