mhmsadyq:


Oga, Akwa Ibom is even more important than Rivers in the south south.

What's the voting strength of Akwa Ibom?


I can see you are not politically smart.

ThrownBack:


It's Peter Obi state too. If you don't know, you don't know.

Who are the people that live in Rivers state?

LegendHero:


In the NC, it is usually 50/50, that zone is not sure for anybody. Even with the cry of Muslim-Muslim, I can bet you that Asiwaju will still get nothing less than 50% in that region.

We have Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa (50%). The only lost zone are Taraba, Benue, and Plateau. However in Benue, I can still bet it that Asiwaju will get 40% considering that the current APC candidate enjoys a followership in that state as the people favorite.

I can’t speak about the NE coz it’s Atiku zone and it will be hard to insinuate Asiwaju will win. However I am pretty sure Atiku win in that zone won’t be more than 60% coz it will be tight.

I give it to you,u are political calculus

ECASH120:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6CJs13-3xY

(Video of Sanwo-Olu and other APC governors commissioning projects in Rivers State)



https://thenationonlineng.net/wike-we-will-teach-those-underrating-rivers-lesson-with-our-votes/

Pride and arrogance are open route to destruction

LegendHero:


For anyone doubting the resolve of Wike to work for Asiwaju, this is your answer. I love the bolded, support who you will benefit from.

With Wike, Asiwaju can be sure of at least 25% of the votes which is a great feat considering the fact that both Obi & Atiku will dilute each other votes. If you fail to secure bloc vote from Rivers, where else will Atiku get the numbers in the South?

The only thing that can give Atiku a lifeline in this election is if Peter Obi withdraw for him coz for every one vote Peter Obi gets, it is -1 for PDP and +1 for APC.

God bless wicked Wike, the slayer of IPOB terrorists, and the nemesis of Atiku.

Nothing more accurate than this

Thank you for this analysis. Your head dey there.

LegendHero:


Lol if 60% is non-indigene, then Yoruba should be the 4th largest tribe.

Maybe you’ve killed all Yoruba finish and replaced them with non-indigene.

I always laugh at those who inflate Igbo people number in the SW. Eveb in Lagos, with how the Igbo vote bloc for PDP, if they come close to 25% in that state, they would have been selecting Lagos governor.

This is the maths.
You have Northerners and the rest of the SS tribe in Lagos too. You will also have Yoruba that are PDP so if you add them to that numbers, PDP candidate should be getting at most 45% in every election in Lagos.

It is only a dunce that will think non-indigenes are more than indigenes in the SW. you my brother, I’m sure you’re not one.

Princeoflagos10:
And for every vote for Kwankwaso in the NW is -1 for tinubu and A.P.C

Kwankwaso wey go finally collapse structure for Tinubu? Instead of Kwankwaso and Atiku to watch Obi become President, they will rather beg their supporters to vote Tinubu . You no sabi politics guy

CoronaVirusRelo:


You a realist!

A political mathematician

Be deceiving yourseif

With what am seeing amd hearing now...Atifku and his pdp cronies are already in serious trouble
with this type of disgruntled Wike who blows hot and cold over unsatisfaction from Atifku ...denying him...
vice-presidential slop...wike is already spoiling the games ..at all frontiers for the old FULANI cargo

nadisms:


This would have been possible in the former era but not in the era of BVAS

Rivers is on total lockdown for PO

Tinubunwill never get 25% from rivers.

Mark it somewhere....

Una go give another excuse after dem announce results. Maybe you will wail that the BVAS failed

LegendHero:


Well I don’t know except now that you told me.

Hello,MR Legend, im a fan of PETER OBI and i know ur a TINUBU FAN but i must commend u 4 d amount of respect u show ppl of opposing parties without any real insults or abuse

LegendHero:


Let me ask you a question.

—In the SE, do you agree that Atiku would have gotten all the votes Peter Obi would get if he were to be the only one on the ballot? That means Atiku is handicapped in the SE.

—In the SS, do you agree to the above for Atiku too? Infact Tinubu vote that he would have gotten in the SS will not be affected by any of Atiku/Obi because those that will vote Tinubu will still vote him either ways. He will get some votes in Bayelsa, Delta, and Edo.

Atiku and Obi in the situation means that even if Asiwaju gets 25% in any of these states, Atiku or Obi will both share the remaining 75% and the margin will be too small to effect a change.

—In the NW/NE, those that will vote Tinubu will still vote him even tho truly the vote margin will eventually decrease. But APC structure will be APC structure, Atiku/Kwakwanso are banking on same PDP structure.

—In the NC, same thing will happen here. Some few people in Benue/Plateau will vote LP, and the guaranteed 50% that Atiku ought to have gotten in that NC will be shared by Peter Obi even if it’s just 15%. That will give the APC a small edge.

You truly Sabi politics. This is what will happen. APC will start being afraid, when Obi collapses structure for Atiku

etrouble:
Wike the wicked one.

Wickedness is not a Virtue that God Blesses

JAWBONE:


400k people voted for Adeleke out of sympathy. . Please go and learn politics. So if Adeleke was in SDP, Accord or LP. He would have won abi??
Abeg go and learn politics.

Segun Oni a former governor in Ekiti didn't even win Ekiti simply because he was in the wrong party. Seyi Makinde didn't win Oyo until he moved to PDP and you say party is not important.

The likes of Obaseki, Saraki and Diri who was in Osun from voting toll result announcement didn't have any impact on Osun elections

And I didn't say Wike will work for Atiku, I said Ortom.

I’m from Osun state and I knw wats on ground. Adeleke is the most popular candidate in osun state now after the demise of his brother..If he decamp to LP today I can bet it that he will win hands down. I can bet it anywhere. Oni’s is a political clout that run up and down, Ain’t amaze he came second and don’t forget APC had to spend heavily as far as 20k per votes in some areas. Provide me the link where Ortom said he will work for ATIKU after the primary.

skywalker240:

@ bolded

One is left but to wonder if you folks have ever stepped a foot in those three state's

Tinubu is currently the most loathed politician in those three state's

It would be easier for tinubu to get 25% from each south east state than those 3 state's

Please say what you know

My brother, that's not true.

I'm currently in Bayelsa and I can assure you that Tinubu will get the least 25-30% in each of those States. The smallest of which will be Bayelsa state.

Go and mark it somewhere

LegendHero:


In the NC, it is usually 50/50, that zone is not sure for anybody. Even with the cry of Muslim-Muslim, I can bet you that Asiwaju will still get nothing less than 50% in that region.

We have Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa (50%). The only lost zone are Taraba, Benue, and Plateau. However in Benue, I can still bet it that Asiwaju will get 40% considering that the current APC candidate enjoys a followership in that state as the people favorite.

I can’t speak about the NE coz it’s Atiku zone and it will be hard to insinuate Asiwaju will win. However I am pretty sure Atiku win in that zone won’t be more than 60% coz it will be tight.

Your analysis is one sided based mostly on party's affiliation, you need to factor tribal, regional and religious factor as well.
Atiku should not be waved aside, as an experienced politician, he has his cards close to his chest.
I know the card that he will be playing in the north. Atiku is more advantaged than all of Obi and Tinubu.
Tinubu's frail health will equally be employed against him especially in the North

GodsOwnMan:


I have been following the conversation between you and legend. Honestly, you talk too much for someone who doesn't even know the meaning of non-indigene. Something so basic you don't know, and yet you want to be taken seriously? GTFOH

Fly away Karen...

No one asked you talkative.

Bye Karen

Honjoshy4u:




Oga, Tinubu will come distant third in the election. Go and campaign in front of ASUU, go and campaign in front of those APC maladministration have destroyed their livelihood and killed their loved ones. Go and campaign in front of those Nigerians that are finding it difficult to feed due to rise in commodities caused by your sinking party.
When you're done campaigning for Tinubu and APC in front of those set of people unhurt, then we can talk. Maybe you are a student at home now due to ASUU strike......

Tinubu is old greedy and sick. No reasonable person will give a sick Nation to a sick president unless your type that he plans to feed with agbado and cassava.

Oga, I don’t belong to any political party since APC didn’t give umahi or Osinbajo ticket so I don’t think I will vote coz they are my two candidates. My stake is the reality on ground, I don’t analyze politics with sentiments but with fact. It’s only a figment of ur imagination to think Obi that doesn’t av the support of the NW and NE will win come 2023, Did u think I reason like most of u??

If Obi has more than 5million votes, I think I’m bad student of politics and I will deactivate my account here. He can only manage to win 30% votes in the NC and over 70% in the SE…He can never get 20% in SW,NE and NW….I don’t do politics of emotions but with reality on ground, Yes he may be better than Tinubu and ATIKU combine but hey he didn’t av the numerical strength to win the game. If I’m saying jargons time will tell.

Armaggedon:
Wike is only feeling funky. Rivers is a PDP state and Atiku will still manage to win there. He should try not to fall out completely with Atiku, IN CASE...

I don't know y wine is pained. He did not win primary and is just shouting up and down...
Tinube wike umahi and el rufai are too power greedy

very interesting

LegendHero:



The only thing that can give Atiku a lifeline in this election is if Peter Obi withdraw for him coz for every one vote Peter Obi gets, it is -1 for PDP and +1 for APC.

.

Very few on Nairaland understand the basic arithmetic of elections.

anigbajumo:


Oga, I don’t belong to any political party since APC didn’t give umahi or Osinbajo ticket so I don’t think I will vote coz they are my two candidates. My stake is the reality on ground, I don’t analyze politics with sentiments but with fact. It’s only a figment of ur imagination to think Obi that doesn’t av the support of the NW and NE will win come 2023, Did u think I reason like most of u??

If Obi has more than 5million votes, I think I’m bad student of politics and I will deactivate my account here. He can only manage to win 30% votes in the NC and over 70% in the SE…He can never get 20% in SW,NE and NW….I don’t do politics of emotions but with reality on ground, Yes he may be better than Tinubu and ATIKU combine but hey he didn’t av the numerical strength to win the game. If I’m saying jargons time will tell.

Let time tell;, your analysis has been towards Tinubu winning the election. That was why I decided to reply. You're either an APC member or Tinubu's boy. You think 2019 and 2023 is the same? If Tinubu can not unite small Osun and deliver his cousin/ his home (Iragbiji) na Nigeria e go win? Time will tell!!!!

Gozac:

Who are the people that live in Rivers state?

Igbos, ijaws, kalabaris, etc. All of them owes the Igbos for their unflinching support of Goodluck Jonathan in 2010 and 2015.

safarigirl:
Person go siddon for Lagos, dey talk say Rivers state go vote Tinubu because of Wike


LOL

I pity BAT if that is how they are deceiving him

Do they vote in rivers? They allocate votes girl

Honjoshy4u:



Let time tell;, your analysis has been towards Tinubu winning the election. That was why I decided to reply. You're either an APC member or Tinubu's boy. You think 2019 and 2023 is the same? If Tinubu can not unite small Osun and deliver his cousin/ his home (Iragbiji) na Nigeria e go win? Time will tell!!!!

You are comparing Osun election to that of presidential election?? You are lost bro, You are new in politics. Time will tell if I’m right or wrong, I don’t belong to APC and not sympathetic to Tinubu my analysis is just the reality on ground.

LegendHero:


For anyone doubting the resolve of Wike to work for Asiwaju, this is your answer. I love the bolded, support who you will benefit from.

With Wike, Asiwaju can be sure of at least 25% of the votes which is a great feat considering the fact that both Obi & Atiku will dilute each other votes. If you fail to secure bloc vote from Rivers, where else will Atiku get the numbers in the South?

The only thing that can give Atiku a lifeline in this election is if Peter Obi withdraw for him coz for every one vote Peter Obi gets, it is -1 for PDP and +1 for APC.

God bless wicked Wike, the slayer of IPOB terrorists, and the nemesis of Atiku.

Oga you're dreaming/delusional, Asiwaju to get 25 what? Woke can not force any of us to vote against our will. South south youths and the elderly say no Muslim Muslim ticket

This is sign of strategical planning ahead of the general election,

realignment is going on for the Jagaban in order to get some

prospective votes that will be added to his strong hold areas,

though, just 25% of votes in Rivers State will be good for Jagaban..

ABAT 2023 is a goal, not by screaming around social medias

LegendHero:


Lol if 60% is non-indigene, then Yoruba should be the 4th largest tribe.

Maybe you’ve killed all Yoruba finish and replaced them with non-indigene.

I always laugh at those who inflate Igbo people number in the SW. Eveb in Lagos, with how the Igbo vote bloc for PDP, if they come close to 25% in that state, they would have been selecting Lagos governor.

This is the maths. Is
You have Northerners and the rest of the SS tribe in Lagos too. You will also have Yoruba that are PDP so if you add them to that numbers, PDP candidate should be getting at most 45% in every election in Lagos.

It is only a dunce that will think non-indigenes are more than indigenes in the SW. you my brother, I’m sure you’re not one.

But PDP has scored 45% in the last two presidential elections in Lagos

ECASH120:
Wike would rather die than to support Atiku. Which means Atiku will get votes from North alone which will pave more way for Peter Obi.

God is really working.

And Tinubu will be rejected by Christians in both North and South.

The only remaining Muslims will have to split their votes for Tinubu and Atiku.
Is God not wonderful for Peter Obi?

you igbo won't kill me with laugh



see Okadigbo of 21 century

anigbajumo:


You are comparing Osun election to that of presidential election?? You are lost bro, You are new in politics. Time will tell if I’m right or wrong, I don’t belong to APC and not sympathetic to Tinubu my analysis is just the reality on ground.

Why are you denying your candidate? Are you not proud of him? Which election have you contested or actively participated in your life? How many political award have you won? Time will tell that you're absolutely wrong...
If Tinubu can't win his home Osun, were he brought his Boko Haram sympathiser VP to campaign, is it the North or other geo zone he will win? Charity begins at home.
Osun election showed he is overrated. After all in 2019 Atiku won over 45% of his region and Lagos State.
Buhari- 580,825. Atiku Abubakar448,015 in the home of National chairman.

Honjoshy4u:


Why are you denying your candidate? Are you not proud of him? Which election have you contested or actively participated in your life? How many political award have you won? Time will tell that you're absolutely wrong...
If Tinubu can't win his home Osun, were he brought his Boko Haram sympathiser VP to campaign, is it the North or other geo zone he will win? Charity begins at home.
Osun election showed he is overrated. After all in 2019 Atiku won over 45% of his region and Lagos State.
Buhari- 580,825. Atiku Abubakar448,015 in the home of National chairman.

You knw nothing about politics, You just come online to write rubbish. Where did u see me campaigning for Tinubu, just because my analysis Favours Tinubu u were saying rubbish. I av been predicting the outcome of election b4 I joined NL and I barely failed. If the APC Northern Governors are still behind Ashiwaju till December this year and Obi is still in LP I can assure you that APC will win 2023 presidential election infact if Wike or kwakwanso works for APC is just a plus not a winning factor and I’m sure one of them will work for APC. You are comparing the election that people votes for individual as yardstick to measure presidential election, who schooled you in politics?? Children has already taken over this forum, if PDP get 40% in Osun come 2023 I will deactivate my acct here…..