Aiel123:
First and foremost, Atiku/Obi polled 598k votes while Buhari/Osinbajo polled 221K in Delta,2019 presidential election.
Now it's Atiku/Okowa,Obi/Datti and Tinubu/Shettima.
One of delta son in Okowa is gunning for VP under PDP.
Delta registered voters is about 3.5m so when we speak of 1M votes alone for Atiku & PDP that's 28.57% of delta total voters.
The question remains about it's feasibility.
I'll do an electoral analysis on the strength and weakness of (PDP & APC) in the state basically by federal constituency.
1) Warri federal constituency: PDP's stronghold. Recorded a massive 152k votes against 18k registered by APC in 2019. Udaughan lost his LGA to James Manager in the last senatorial district election.
2019: APC:10.76% PDP:89.23%
2023: APC:13% PDP:85%
2) Ughelli/Udu federal constituency:
Omo Agege from ughelli north, the LGA with the largest voting strength in ughelli/Udu federal constituency is APC's guber candidate. Edevbie,an aggrieved PDP guber aspirant is also from ughelli north. Ughelli south/ Udu is 50/50 and 45/50 for APC and PDP respectively.
2019: APC:54.09% PDP:45.90%
2023: APC:55% PDP:45%
3) Ndokwa/ Ukwuani federal constituency:
Osanebi, highly popular, is Omo Agege running mate. Onjeme, Sherrif running mate is also from this constituency. Osanebi was previously in PDP but later defected to APC. Also, Hon.Ossai Ossai lost his reelection primaries and Edevbie faction of PDP made him deputy to Edevbie pending the outcome of supreme court. Victor Ezechi,SA to Gov. Okowa won PDP ticket to represent this federal constituency.
2019: APC (without Osanebi) 14.10% PDP ( with Osanebi) 85.89%
2023: APC ( with Osanebi) 30% PDP (without Osanebi) 70%
4) Ika federal constituency: No long talk needed here.
2019: APC 20.74% PDP 79.25%
2023: APC 8% PDP 92%
5) Isoko federal constituency:
APC's senatorial candidate,Joel Thomas is from here. Also Leo Ogor of PDP. It will be battle royal with PDP winning as it was in 2019 and 2021 by election.
2019 APC 40.92% PDP 59.07%
2023: APC 40% PDP 60%
6) Ethiope federal constituency:
Ibori home base. APC lost a formidable ally in Ogboru.
2019: APC ( with Ogboru) 43.15% PDP 56.84%
2023: APC (without Ogboru) 40% PDP ( Ibori disenchantment) 55%
7) Burutu federal constituency:
Hon. Nicholas Mutu base. APC struggles here. Nothing changes now.
2019: APC 18.80% PDP 81.19%
2023: APC 20% PDP 80%
Bomadi/Patani federal constituency:
Hon. Julius Pondi and Sen. James Manager federal constituency. Small traces of APC here
2019: APC 7.28% PDP 92.71%
2023: APC 8% PDP 92%
9) Aniocha/Oshimili federal constituency:
Nwaboshi is from here. Nwoko from Aniocha, same as Elumelu, PDP's house of representatives candidate
LP will do well here especially asaba and environs. PDP and APC battles Oshimili north, albeit with a narrow victory for PDP. Aniocha is PDP's to lose.
2019: APC ( without Nwaboshi) 11.64% PDP ( with Nwaboshi) 88.35%
2023: APC ( with Nwaboshi)18% PDP+without Nwaboshi)72% LP: 10%
10) Okpe/ Sapele/Uvwie federal constituency:
Monday Igbuya is back to PDP though in Edevbie faction. He was apc candidate for this constituency in 2019 but lost to PDP's Efe.
Oborevwori and Oboro shares this federal constituency. APC will struggle to make an impact.
2019 APC.42.27% PDP. 57.72%
2023 APC. 40% PDP 60%
From the above analysis I hereby conclude that Delta is still PDP'S to lose but except massive voters turnout occurs a million votes isn't feasible going by recent trend in the state political atmosphere.
Deltans on NL
What do you think?
Pls... no uncouth statement and abuses is allowed
I believe we're are bigger than that.

I agree with almost everything except with slight modifications.senator nwaoboshi contribution will be bigger than what you are giving him.Ned is no match for him politically.you didnt factor in victor ochei,uboh...

In 2019 when DSP was just a senator,he cleared ughelli for buhari.now as a dsp,he will overrun urhobo land.sheriff can try but not edevbie.
In warri federal constituency,ejele is the only one pdp has bar uduaghan in itsekiri side.ayiri is really pulling creek boys for tinubu.pdp should still win ijaw areas but with lesser margin considering that manager,otuaro,Clark are aggrieved and orubebe is in apc.ogor has lost relevance in isoko land and ovuozorie Macaulay is neutral.with apc giving Joel senate ticket,apc should natlrrowly take isoko land... Labour votes will mostly come from delta north and south

Sammy07:


Na the same bvas Buh you know that's the first time they'll use bvas so everyone is being careful.

After they've studied Anambra and Ekiti. Theyvs mastered it

You see that Osun even those wey no get PVC dey votes, so far they see their names and VIN or someone helped them sees it.

INEC needs improvement Abeq.

The verification has to be strong like NIN stuff

Yeaahh..
Something like,,
“Voter identification can only be done through the SCANNING OF BAR-CODE ALONE..
And no other means..”

Sammy07:


Exactly, once they see their names on the register or what do they call it then boom
They just use their VIN that's all

I dont get you.you mean one person can have plenty pvc

Salvador1:
this is where his failure starts.

No.buhari lowest votes was in anambra...this is where atiku got his only bloc vote and it is now gone.tinubu will get votes from IMO,ebonyi and maybe abia

BluntCrazeMan:
Yeaahh..
Something like,,
“Voter identification can only be done through the SCANNING OF BAR-CODE ALONE..
And no other means..”

If it is only barcode,it no longer becomes bvas na

garfield1:


I dont get you.you mean one person can have plenty pvc

No...
There is no need having plenty PVCs.
There is no need collecting many PVCs from people either .
They just have to collude with the INEC’s Adhoc Staff.
They will be telling the adhoc staff the names of people, and they would search on the BVAS and bring them up.
Then they would start testing their fingerprints until the machine accepts any of the fingers..
Then they would rejoice, and then vote.
..
He is now saying that the machine is even making it easy for them, in the sense that once they find any name on the BVAS system (even without using any Voters Card),, that any person who puts his fingerprint on the machine, the machine would just accept the fingerprint immediately..
No Second Testing.

garfield1:


If it is only barcode,it no longer becomes bvas na

The meaning of BVAS is in the verification and authentication of the voter, and not in the identification..
...
“Bimodal” here means, both fingerprints biometrics verification and Facial verification...
..
..
They can configure the Machine so that identification is purely by scanning of card

BluntCrazeMan:
No...
There is no need having plenty PVCs.
There is no need collecting many PVCs from people either .
They just have to collude with the INEC’s Adhoc Staff.
They will be telling the adhoc staff the names of people, and they would search on the BVAS and bring them up.
Then they would start testing their fingerprints until the machine accepts any of the fingers..
Then they would rejoice, and then vote.
..
He is now saying that the machine is even making it easy for them, in the sense that once they find any name on the BVAS system (even without using any Voters Card),, that any person who puts his fingerprint on the machine, the machine would just accept the fingerprint immediately..
No Second Testing.

True and several names are very similar...at least it is better than manual accreditation

garfield1:


True and several names are very similar...at least it is better than manual accreditation

That's it.
..
Let them stay there and be doing trial-and-error...
That is, after everybody might have finished voting..
Once they are tired of trying, they should pack-up...
...
..
Or, are they going to stay there and continue finding names??

Sammy07:


Oga i worked as INEC ad-hoc staff in the just concluded Osun election.

Forget about bvas Abeq. In a polling unit if they want all the registered voters to appear as accredited voters it's very possible.

Since the vIN alongside details is always posted.
To be able to vote, bvas requires you verify the person through VIN, or last name or Scan the bar code.

Then check the details, then the voters will thumbprint or you capture their face.

Oga, one person can register for 20 people so long he has their VIN

Cc: BluntCrazeMan
Forget about bvas been hard to Rig Abeq.
If they'll Rig, they'll rig

I said this to some uninformed obedient but they were blabbing around the forumn, this is not even all sef

I told them Tinubu has 7 million standby votes and thy took it lightly

garfield1:



I agree with almost everything except with slight modifications.senator nwaoboshi contribution will be bigger than what you are giving him.Ned is no match for him politically.you didnt factor in victor ochei,uboh...

In 2019 when DSP was just a senator,he cleared ughelli for buhari.now as a dsp,he will overrun urhobo land.sheriff can try but not edevbie.
In warri federal constituency,ejele is the only one pdp has bar uduaghan in itsekiri side.ayiri is really pulling creek boys for tinubu.pdp should still win ijaw areas but with lesser margin considering that manager,otuaro,Clark are aggrieved and orubebe is in apc.ogor has lost relevance in isoko land and ovuozorie Macaulay is neutral.with apc giving Joel senate ticket,apc should natlrrowly take isoko land... Labour votes will mostly come from delta north and south

Garfield the political analyst!
About Isoko I disagree.
All the rest I concur.
You and Efewestern share the same opinion of LP getting votes from delta south.

babyfaceafrica:


You people banking on bvas don't understand anything. All they need to do is register underage voters and they will use that to their advantage. I was an ad-hoc staff and you will see kids under 18 with voters card, and will demand to vote. You dare not refuse. Na you be there mama ni?

Then with this Atiku is the Next Nigeria president

Aiel123:

Garfield the political analyst!
About Isoko I disagree.
All the rest I concur.
You and Efewestern share the same opinion of LP getting votes from delta south.

Sorry delta central not south oh.in south,he will only have in warri south because of its urban status.the urhobo are very liberal so they will vote wella for obi.
The isokos have been begging for senate or guber and apc has obliged them so they will be grateful plus Leo ogor is ailing.Joel shook him in 2019.
When it comes to delta issues,I usually defer to Efewestern and fratermathy,tutudesz,ogidigbodigbo etc.they are objective.

oluwadabira111:
Then with this Atiku is the Next Nigeria president

Maybe

garfield1:


Sorry delta central not south oh.in south,he will only have in warri south because of its urban status.the urhobo are very liberal so they will vote wella for obi.
The isokos have been begging for senate or guber and apc has obliged them so they will be grateful plus Leo ogor is ailing.Joel shook him in 2019.
When it comes to delta issues,I usually defer to Efewestern and fratermathy,tutudesz,ogidigbodigbo etc.they are objective.

Yes...those guys gives you the brutal truth.
Bro.... I saw all the back and forth dragging about bvas.
You see why it's good to have structure?
No election has been free and fair.
Kyase had constantly hammered on this.

Aiel123:

Yes...those guys gives you the brutal truth.
Bro.... I saw all the back and forth dragging about bvas.
You see why it's good to have structure?
No election has been free and fair.
Kyase had constantly hammered on this.

Wike had GDI,it is still there.in Nigerian politics,structure is key that is why I still see tinubu winning the north.apart from party structure,he has personal structure which atiku doesnt have

Aiel123:

Yes...those guys gives you the brutal truth.
Bro.... I saw all the back and forth dragging about bvas.
You see why it's good to have structure?
No election has been free and fair.
Kyase had constantly hammered on this.

My brother
It’s in 2023 these people will understand the usefulness of structures

Sammy07:



It is not %turnouts that matters but the marginal difference.

For example

If 500k turnouts in Ekiti
Apc - 400k - 92%
PDP - 80k - 6%
Lp - 20k - 2%

Now 1M turnouts in Anambra
Apc - 100k - 10%
PDP - 300k - 30%
Lp - 600k - 60%

Who has won?
Stop using percentages

Even in your own calculation Labour Party still won.

garfield1:


Wike had GDI,it is still there.in Nigerian politics,structure is key that is why I still see tinubu winning the north.apart from party structure,he has personal structure which atiku doesnt have

Unless a great sabotaging occurs down North
One who have structure will always win (Tinubu)
Atiku has his own structure in the north but it isn't as strong as APC's.
Only Buhari broke the structure jinx.
He contested in opposition and even when the government in the ruling pary has governors and large political structure, Buhari always win those state.

Kyase:

My brother
It’s in 2023 these people will understand the usefulness of structures

True.
And by then noone will query the importance and necessity of structures.

Penguin2:


Even in your own calculation Labour Party still won.

That's the point I'm bringing out

Apc has 92% somewhere and 10% somewhere else yet lost

While lp has 60% somewhere and 2% elsewhere yet won.
Using percentages to calculate it is very wrong arithmetic

Aiel123:

Unless a great sabotaging occurs down North
One who have structure will always win (Tinubu)
Atiku has his own structure in the north but it isn't as strong as APC's.
Only Buhari broke the structure jinx.
He contested in opposition and even when the government in the ruling pary has governors and large political structure, Buhari always win those state.

No,buhari had a structure na.most of those CPC arm of apc were part of his structure from anpp.he needed help from pdp to even win.atiku used to depend on pdm of late yaradua but its gone.most of those with atiku are not his loyalists just haters of apc or businessminded people like him.is it not recently that tambuwal started working for him plus shekarau? Tinubu has been friends with wamakko,shettima,geidam etc for ages

garfield1:


No,buhari had a structure na.most of those CPC arm of apc were part of his structure from anpp.he needed help from pdp to even win.atiku used to depend on pdm of late yaradua but its gone.most of those with atiku are not his loyalists just haters of apc or businessminded people like him.is it not recently that tambuwal started working for him plus shekarau? Tinubu has been friends with wamakko,shettima,geidam etc for ages

What I meant is that Buhari use to win states controlled by ruling party when he was in opposition.

Aiel123:

True.
And by then noone will query the importance and necessity of structures.

Nobody

Aiel123:

What I meant is that Buhari use to win states controlled by ruling party when he was in opposition.

True but most of these states were originally anpp states like kebbi,sokoto,gombe,bauchi

If you’re not on ground here in Delta you won’t understand what is going to hit PDP for the presidential election in 2023. People are creating awareness for Peter Obi with their own money.

Iriruaga100:
If you’re not on ground here in Delta you won’t understand what is going to hit PDP for the presidential election in 2023. People are creating awareness for Peter Obi with their own money.

Even Edo

garfield1:


True but most of these states were originally anpp states like kebbi,sokoto,gombe,bauchi

Okay.
I'll check up northern states in Nigeria.
I don't really know of their politicking.

Aiel123:

Okay.
I'll check up northern states in Nigeria.
I don't really know of their politicking.

Are you from delta north

garfield1:


Are you from delta north

Yes proudly Ika.

Aiel123:

Yes proudly Ika.

Oh,no wonder.ika dont like identifying with igbos

garfield1:


Oh,no wonder.ika dont like identifying with igbos

Well the ikas I know relates well with Igbos but there's a limit to the relationship.
Even Okowa claimed he is Igbo.
You can now see why I'm so enthusiastic about the presidency.
Okowa as VP will benefit us very well.
Don't forget his wife is from agbor.