As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.

The people are already done with the traditional politicians, so based on this, Obi is the man to beat in this election.

The south must unite to vote Obi.

This sounds like a fair representation of how things stand now. But it's still 80 days to the elections, anything can come up that will swing voters.

The one Tambuwal did to you guys is still not enough lesson for you guys in the South. Underestimate the North at your own peril.

Atiku is your next president period and there will be no run off just saying so you have some peace of mind.

As it stands now even fools will not vote for a Tinubu presidency if it is not clear enough for you yet then just wait for few weeks into January then you will understand.

When you go for interview do you go with your parents to answer questions for you or will you employ a wanna be technocrat who came to your interview with people to answer questions for him?

Nigeria is a serious business please, we should stop joking with it.


TINUBU remains UNELECTABLE!
Shalom!

Almost a nice analysis except for the NE not voting Obi

Obi is on ground as well in North East much more than Tinubu. Remember NE has over 40% christian population. It's a religious battle for the second ballot

fiizznation:
The election is clearly between Tinubu and Atiku. I expect anybody with a little knowledge of politics and how Nigeria politics is should know this. Both Obi and kwankwaso are going no where. They DON'T have that structure to disrupt anything.

What they will eventually get in the election is nothing but pocket votes which won't do any harm to the major contestants (atiku and tinubu).

Either way I absolutely don't care about anybody that might eventually win between atiku and tinubu. My only hope is that the next administration should be better than this present one.

But do you agree that this election will go into a run-off? If you do, it means you'll agree that it's because of Obi and Kwankwaso. So, even though they don't have "structure" in your opinion, they have succeeded in disrupting the normal electoral process.

blank:
This sounds like a fair representation of how things stand now. But it's still 80 days to the elections, anything can up that will swing voters.

I agree anything can happen. A simple merger amongst any of them can turn things around.

If Obi is a northerner of hausa/fulani/kanuri extraction , he would be tagged mai gaisikiya. I predict runoff between obi and atiku. Atiku is likely next president of Nigeria. Good people cannot win election in crooked country. Obi can only win if Tinubu is disqualified which is not likely to happen. Tinubu could win if obi withdraws from the race.
I may be wrong i don't see Tinubu as the next president.

Obi will come out first followed by either Atiku/Tinubu, then any of those two that lost would support Obi whom is perceived to be neutral guy between Atiku and Tinubu.

Obi is kinda a boy to Atiku and Atiku would support him is he(Atiku) did not make the run off election. Same goes to Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

So Obi all the way for 2023 QED.

TooMuchStuff:
Almost a nice analysis except for the NE not voting Obi

Obi is on ground as well in North East much more than Tinubu. Remember NE has over 40% christian population. It's a religious battle for the second ballot

have those 40% promise you that they will vote obi? You guys are nothing but a pure clown, obi have balance ticket just like Atiku so I don't know where you are getting impression that NE or North Central Christian vote are for obi

Ruggedniggaone:
have those 40% promise you that they will vote obi? You guys are nothing but a pure clown, obi have balance ticket just like Atiku so I don't know where you are getting impression that NE or North Central Christian vote are for obi

. Guy don't play down on facts , Obi will win massively in the North central, you can take it to the bank, no amount of lies propaganda and blackmail can stop LP from winning the north central, the only States he will lose for Tinubu is kwara , kogi will be shared if not 60/40 because Igbo had almost 8 LGAs in kogi the rest Obi will get more than 50%, you can take to the bank, forget about old story of North being together, these areas ate not north , apart from that no indigenous minority tribe can Vote in anything that connects to herdsmen again because they there targets in their

Obinoscopy:
But do you agree that this election will go into a run-off? If you do, it means you'll agree that it's because of Obi and Kwankwaso. So, even though they don't have "structure" in your opinion, they have succeeded in disrupting the normal electoral process.

No sir there won't be any run off. There will be a clear winner and a loser. Atiku and Tinubu will get the required percentage in the six regions of the country. That's what structures do. The person that will win big in his base and and also win some states outside his stronghold will win the election.

Tinubu will win the southwest with a wide margin and win some states outside the southwest. I don't know about Atiku's acceptance in the northwest. Is not yet clear which candidate will win big in the region between Atiku and Tinubu. Though many of the youths are clamoring for Atiku and the elderly ones are still for APC. One can't just say yet!

The North Central will clearly be divided between Atiku and Tinubu

The South South will likely go for PDP. PDP might win there but it won't be landslide victory.

The North east just like the northwest isn't guaranteed for anybody yet. Some states will go for APC while some will go for PDP.

The South east will be an open ground for everybody though if I want to bring sentiments in, I will give the region to Obi. But Obi won't even win his region because social media popularity don't win you elections. No matter how we want to spin it, your structure on ground does the magic for you.

Ruggedniggaone:
have those 40% promise you that they will vote obi? You guys are nothing but a pure clown, obi have balance ticket just like Atiku so I don't know where you are getting impression that NE or North Central Christian vote are for obi

Dingbat like you won't get it until the reality is blown on your face raw.
2023 is about religion demography and dominance.

Why would APC have Muslim Muslim ticket in a clear secular country with clear Christian majority?

Some of us live in the North all our lives. Gone to every corner of the North and South in the course of our jobs and professional practices. No single North state without core indigenous Christian community.
But suppressed by Muslim community via political power assistance gotten through the FG military govt over the past. States like nasarawa kaduna adamawa kogi are not supposed to be governed consistently by Muslims who are minority in them.

Tor.....na 80 days remain and this kinds of threads will stop appearing on Nairaland.

There will be no runoff in this election. Tinubu and Atiku will get the required 25% in all the 19 northern states. Atiku will get 25% or more in all the SS states and Tinubu will get 25% or more in all the SW states. Thats 24 states for both of them.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Edo, Ebonyi and Cross River states. Atiku should get up to 25% in Enugu, Abia, Ekiti and Ogun and Ondo and Oyo state.

Overall, whoever gets the highest vote between Tinubu and Atiku will be declared president at first round.

TooMuchStuff:
Almost a nice analysis except for the NE not voting Obi

Obi is on ground as well in North East much more than Tinubu. Remember NE has over 40% christian population. It's a religious battle for the second ballot

The Northern Christians will vote for only PDP or APC. They won't vote LP!! Even in the heart of southern kaduna were Christians constitute the majority there, they won't vote for LP.
Those guys aren't political naive like you guys think.

Atiku is the next President

copyrites:
The south must unite to vote Obi.

there is no way u will not recognize an Igbo person

Hate will always give them out

Obi should win all the SE and SS states

Though I still doubt he will win bayelsa and delta state(okowa is our son factor).
If he can get consistent 1 million votes from at least 6 states that is SE and SS combined that puts him on an edge.

I'm so sure he will get the required 25 percent from all south west state and north central
Thats the required 25 percent in 24 states accomplished.

He needs to make in road in the north east,he needs to convince the Christians there.
Atiku,kwankwaso and tinubu will cancel themselves in north west.
Though I see atiku getting 25 percent in all south south states.

It's dicey
If the election goes into a run off between atiku and obi, obi wins.

If it goes into a run off between atiku and tinubu, atiku wins.

If it goes into a run off between obi and tinubu, I really don't know who will win because I don't know who the north will vote for.

fiizznation:
The Northern Christians will vote for only PDP or APC. They won't vote LP!! Even in the heart of southern kaduna were Christians constitute the majority there, they won't vote for LP.
Those guys aren't political naive like you guys think.

And the regions that are politically smart are more better than others, enjoying economic prosperity.
Those people who are politically naive according to you are intellectually wise. Politics is about bringing development to the people.

OP, your analysis for the NW&NE is erroneous. I am 90% confident that Tinubu will get at least 25% in the 13 states. Yes, Atiku is influential in NE but he can't deny Tinubu getting 25%. It is this fact that makes Tinubu the most plausible winner of this political bout. He will get at least 25%in the following regions:
NW: All 7 states
NE: All 6 states
SW: All 6 states
NC: All 6 except Benue
SS: Only state I see foresee here is Edo
SE: None
FCT: Yes
TOTAL: 26 (with Edo), 25(without Edo)

Verdict : Tinubu has 25 states in the bag. The game is just to get the majority votes

As for Obi, I asssure you that the only states he might get up to 25% in the NW & NE are Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba. In the SW, only Lagos. That's already 15 states off his table and thus no possibility of winning

Bookmark this post and quote me after the 2023 elections

fiizznation:
No sir there won't be any run off. There will be a clear winner and a loser. Atiku and Tinubu will get the required percentage in the six regions of the country. That's what structures do. The person that will win big in his base and and also win some states outside his stronghold will win the election.

Tinubu will win the southwest with a wide margin and win some states outside the southwest. I don't know about Atiku's acceptance in the northwest. Is not yet clear which candidate will win big in the region between Atiku and Tinubu. Though many of the youths are clamoring for Atiku and the elderly ones are still for APC. One can't just say yet!

The North Central will clearly be divided between Atiku and Tinubu

The South South will likely go for PDP. PDP might win there but it won't be landslide victory.

The North east just like the northwest isn't guaranteed for anybody yet. Some states will go for APC while some will go for PDP.

The South east will be an open ground for everybody though if I want to bring sentiments in, I will give the region to Obi. But Obi won't even win his region because social media popularity don't win you elections. No matter how we want to spin it, your structure on ground does the magic for you.

This one is still living in denial. You really don't know what is going on.

Tinubu and Atiku will win their respective regions but Obi won't, I laugh at your folly.

fiizznation:
No sir there won't be any run off. There will be a clear winner and a loser. Atiku and Tinubu will get the required percentage in the six regions of the country. That's what structures do. The person that will win big in his base and and also win some states outside his stronghold will win the election.

Tinubu will win the southwest with a wide margin and win some states outside the southwest. I don't know about Atiku's acceptance in the northwest. Is not yet clear which candidate will win big in the region between Atiku and Tinubu. Though many of the youths are clamoring for Atiku and the elderly ones are still for APC. One can't just say yet!

The North Central will clearly be divided between Atiku and Tinubu

The South South will likely go for PDP. PDP might win there but it won't be landslide victory.

The North east just like the northwest isn't guaranteed for anybody yet. Some states will go for APC while some will go for PDP.

The South east will be an open ground for everybody though if I want to bring sentiments in, I will give the region to Obi. But Obi won't even win his region because social media popularity don't win you elections. No matter how we want to spin it, your structure on ground does the magic for you.

You are still stuck in 1999

TooMuchStuff:

Dingbat like you won't get it until the reality is blown on your face raw.
2023 is about religion demography and dominance.

Why would APC have Muslim Muslim ticket in a clear secular country with clear Christian majority?

Some of us live in the North all our lives. Gone to every corner of the North and South in the course of our jobs and professional practices. No single North state without core indigenous Christian community.
But suppressed by Muslim community via political power assistance gotten through the FG military govt over the past. States like nasarawa kaduna adamawa kogi are not supposed to be governed consistently by Muslims who are minority in them.

okay obi go win entire North and south, are you happy now?

Idiotseverywher:
. Guy don't play down on facts , Obi will win massively in the North central, you can take it to the bank, no amount of lies propaganda and blackmail can stop LP from winning the north central, the only States he will lose for Tinubu is kwara , kogi will be shared if not 60/40 because Igbo had almost 8 LGAs in kogi the rest Obi will get more than 50%, you can take to the bank, forget about old story of North being together, these areas ate not north , apart from that no indigenous minority tribe can Vote in anything that connects to herdsmen again because they there targets in their

obi can even get 70% in kwara and 80% in kogi awon weyrey

Ruggedniggaone:
okay obi go win entire North and south, are you happy now?

I am gonnna be very clear with you.

Peter obi will win southeast and southsouth in a landslide, he will get many votes in southwest and northcentral.

ATiku will win northwest and northeast.

It’s the reality that you need to accept

Obinoscopy:
As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.

Seeing you write SS is a no go area for Tinubu rubbished the entire writeup. Made you appear grossly ignorant with respect to the subject matter.

The only place Obi will win is the East. He stands little chance in the SS, except a Wike comes to his aid, in which case he makes a good showing in Rivers.

FatherOfJesus:
Lol, which local government can Tinubu win in southsouth.

I am from Delta state, Tinubu cannot even win Omo agege’s local government.

It’s the reality, Tinubu is totally unsellable to us. We will even prefer an ATiku who still seem saber in thought process

From "Delta state" indeed. Some of you people on this forum are such disgusting liars, it's irritating engaging you guys.

Corrinthians:
Seeing you write SS is a no go area for Tinubu rubbished the entire writeup. Made you appear grossly ignorant with respect to the subject matter.

Lol, which local government can Tinubu win in southsouth.

I am from Delta state, Tinubu cannot even win Omo agege’s local government.

It’s the reality, Tinubu is totally unsellable to us. We will even prefer an ATiku who still seem saber in thought process