BOLATINUBU01:
oga shut up, LP can't even av 10% in my state ondo, TINUBU will av at least 80% votes here

Aufbauh:
2023 Presidential Election Projection by Voting Patterns and Trends.

Although the 2023 Presidential election is expected to have more voters turnout due to reinvigorated electorate interest occasioned by improved electoral law and the competitiveness of the aspirants. Voting patterns and trends however will be an important clue on what is to come and shouldn't be undermine.

There's therefore no gainsaying that entrenched political interest and party structure as expected will play vital roles in this phenomenon. This is why political party and politicians alike speak to their strongholds, weak areas and swing locations.

Again every grassroot politician and political player understand this scientific process of politics through careful observation, analysis and inference.

So a careful study of this phenomenon can readily suggest which state(s) will be won and lose by a certain political party.

To predict the future we need a recourse to the event of the past.

It is noteworthy that the voting patterns and trends since 1999 hasn't change much hence could be an important guide in projecting the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. However the only notable alteration to this phenomenon in every election year is in the margin of votes.

My critical study of the Nigeria Presidential election result by states from 1993 through to 2019 has helped in arriving at this conclusion.

Suffice me to say that my projection was hinged primarily on 2019 presidential election result. The reason being that it is the most recent, most improved & credible since the 1993 election, and then the most practical or feasible as the case may be.

My projection shall be a breakdown analysis of the four front line political party by geopolitical zones.

North West Zone.
Underlying Fact:
The zone contribute more in vote to the electoral fortune of any aspirant, and it's also known to vote in one direction enbloc.
No wonder In 2019 presidential election the main opposition the PDP could only managed to secured the electoral requirement of 25% in just two states out of the seven states in the zone!
Sokoto (39%) and Jigawa (25%)

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP and NNPP is expected to win at least one state from the zone but will fail to secure the 25% in all the states in the zone.

The LP will perform woefully in this zone and will not be able to secure the 25% in any of the States.

North East Zone:
Underlying Fact: The predominantly Muslim states of Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe always tends to vote along same political interest. The two others are considered to be swing states.
Did you know that the main opposition party the PDP whose candidate Atiku is from the same zone score the least vote percentage in the two states of Borno (7%) and Yobe(8%) across the country? Fact!

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP is expected to win at least two states from the zone but will fail to secured the 25% in at least two states in the zone.

The NNPP is expected to make an appreciable outing in Bauchi state but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Taraba and Adamawa state, but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.
The stronger Atiku wax in this zone, the weaker the performance of Mr Obi.

Summarily any state in the NW and NE that the PDP didn't get up to 50% in the 2019 presidential election, the LP won't secure the electoral requirement of 25% in such state. QED!

North Central zone:
Underlying fact:
Most of the states in the zone are swing state except Niger and Kwara! The implication of this fact is that any of the legacy party can swing either state to it side. Although the winning margin is always minimal.
The APC won 4 out of the 6 states in the zone in 2019 while the PDP won Plateau and Benue state.

Voters considerations: Partly Religious, Party interest and Structural influence.

Observation:
The APC is expected to sustain their 2019 feat by winning at least 4 states in the zone due to their entrenched political structure that will be coordinated by their sitting Governors. It will also secure the electoral requirement of 25% in all the states of the zone.

The PDP however will be affected by the Obi's influence in the Christian dominated States of Plateau and Benue. The PDP structure will however help the party to secure the mandatory 25% in at least 5 states.

The NNPP will have a marginal outing in at least two states of the zone but will fail to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will make an appreciable outing in the zone by securing the mandatory 25% in at least two states.

South West Zone;
Underlying fact; Interestingly voting trends has shown that the SWern states can be swing.
However the marginal strong third force which is expected to split the opposition votes, and the entrenched political interest of the APC/ home boy effect in the zone will give the APC the clear lead.

Voters Considerations: Credibility and Party Interest.

Observation:
The APC won in four states of the zone in 2019, and it is expected to take a clear lead in all the states of the zone come 2023.

The PDP won in two states of the zone Oyo(41%) and Ondo(47%). However the party is expected to struggle in the zone come 2023 due to the underlying fact.
The party is expected to secure the mandatory 25% requirement in at least two states of the zone only if the sitting Governors in those States decide to work for the party.

The NNPP will have a poor outing in the entire south.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Lagos with the prospect of securing the 25% requirement. Being an offshoot of the PDP, it'll take some votes from the PDP stronghold in the zone thereby depleting the PDP votes and enhancing the winning margin of the APC.
If the LP can put in more work they can be fortunate to benefit from the PDP crisis and secure 25% in at least two states of the zone.

South East zone:
Underlying fact: The zone is the only zone in the South that vote along the same direction and equally give their preferred candidate bloc vote.
The zone equally has the lowest voters turnout among the six geopolitical zones since the advent of the use of the card reader machine in an election.

Voters considerations: Ethnic, Religious and regional interest.

Observation:
The APC will have their poorest outing in the zone as the party managed in 2019 to secured the 25% in only Imo state. It woeful performance across the country is in Anambra state with a mere 5%. Although it is expected to do better in 2023, however the LP candidate home boy effect will affect fortune of any other political party in the zone.
Notwithstanding, the party is expected to secure the electoral requirement in at least one state (Ebony most likely) from the zone.

The PDP will be the biggest loser in the zone as the zone was once it unnegotiable and undisputed stronghold.
The PDP will finds it difficult to secure the mandatory 25% in any of the States as the zone is expected to turn up for their home boy. Also the PDP internal crisis with the G5 will equally affect the party in securing the requirement.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP is expected to win the five States in the zone due to the above stated underlying fact.

South South Zone:
Underlying fact: Notwithstanding that the zone almost vote along same political direction, it tends to be generous to any aspirant who can work hard enough to reap from it pluralism and diverse interest.
The effect of political structure and ethnic negotiations can not be overemphasize in the zone.
The zone remain the most unpredictable
Zone in the 2023 due to multiple interest and factors.

Voters Considerations: Party and Structural/Ethnic interest.

Observation:
The APC secured the electoral requirement of 25% in five States of the zone in 2019 and is bill to repeat such feat in 2023. However it is envisaged that the party will do better than 2019 in the zone and may likely swing Bayelsa state.

The PDP will have a mountain to climb in other to repeat it feat of 2019 in the zone.
The internal crisis with the G5, the crave for a president of southern extraction and Obi's candidacy are all factors that will affect the PDP in the zone.
However the PDP is expected to win at least two states in the zone and secure the mandatory 25% in at least four states of the zone.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP will have a marginal outing in the zone by taking advantage of the factors militating against the PDP candidate.
The party will put up a good show in at least four states of the zone but it's unclear whether the LP can muster the number to win any of the States in the zone. It will however secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least four states of the zone.

Summarily:
The APC candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 31 States of the federation (NW=7) (NE=6) (NC=6) (SW=6) (SE=1) ((SS =5)

The PDP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 16 states of the federation. (NW=2) (NE=4) (NC=4) (SE=0) (SW=2) (SS=4)

The NNPP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 2 states of the federation.(NW=2) (NE=0) (NC=0) (SE=0) (SW=0) (SS=0)

The LP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 14 States of the federation. (NW=0) (NE=0) (NC=3) (SW=2) (SS=4) (SE=5)

Verdict:
From the voting patterns and trends it is obvious the the APC presidential candidate is the only candidate that has the spread and reach to win the election by simple majority and also satisfying the electoral requirement of 25% in the 24 states of the federation.

Conclusion: This phenomenon has shown that politics is a scientific process that requires critical observation, analysis and inference. Election itself is not a big bang product that create shockers outside it possibilities. This is why election is in numbers and not in spurious innuendos.

With the facts and figures available it is therefore obvious that the major advantage of the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election will stem from the vote splitting among the main opposition party.
Hence by summing up the voting percentage of the main opposition party(the PDP) that severed lately into LP, NNPP and G5 shows that the opposition party might have stand a better chance against the ruling party only if they were united in one frontier. Just imagine Atiku/Obi ticket with Kwankwaso still in the PDP and having the full backing of the G5 Governors.

There's no gainsaying therefore that a vote for Obi in the south and some part of NC is a vote for Tinubu. Also a vote for Kwankwaso in the north is a share vote with Atiku and an added advantage to Tinubu.

Election in naija no be by much cappings but in more vote counting
Seun
Mynd44
OAMJ4
nlfpmod
seunmsg
LeoDeKing
Moh247
Okoroawusa
plaindealear
Omenka
NgeneKwenu
Arrewa

Johncarlo07:



Weyrey! Agbado don block ur brain. LP will nt get 10% in Ondo. Are u d only one voting?

I can stake wit all d money in my account, LP will get more dan 20% in Ondo.

U Agbadorians can populate nairaland nd make projections to suit your purpose. February will clear ur doubts.

Aufbauh:


Obi can't get 25% in the 24 states of the federation. I'm even magnanimous in my projection.

Let's even assume he'll get the 25% in all the 17 southern states, 3 from NC of Plateau, Benue, Kogi or Nasarrawa or 4. Then 2 from NE of Adamawa and Taraba. Do your mathematics, it's just 22 or 23 at most.


Election is not it'll shock una bla bla bla....

WhizdomXX:

Obi can get 25% in kaduna if his team works harder. That makes it 24 states.

aninibinladen:


You sit in a one bedroom shanty in Mushin and turn yourself to a seer predicting how the North will vote because the one who has siphoned the wealth of Lagos is contesting.

Aufbauh:

Let me open up your brain a little to an underlying fact: No sitting Governor's party has come below 2nd in a presidential election before in his state, particularly in the Northern States. Go and verify!

aninibinladen:


Well let me reconstruct your brain.

1. James Ngilari of the PDP was the sitting Governor when Goodluck lost the state in 2015.

2. Is Yuguda of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Bauchi when Goodluck lost the state in 2015.

3. Gabriel Suswam of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Benue when Goodluck lost the state in 2015

4. Ibrahim Dankwambo of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Gombe when Goodluck lost in 2015

5. Sule Lamido of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Jigawa when Goodluck lost in 2015

6. Mukthar Yero of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Kaduna when Goodluck lost in 2015

7. Rabiu kwankwaso was the sitting Governor of Kano when Goodluck lost in 2015

8. Ibrahim Shema of the PDP was the sitting Governor of Katsina in 2015 when Goodluck lost.

.....same goes for Kebbi, kogi, Niger etc

All Northern States.

Keep f.00ling yourself

Gossipninja:


Definitely. Location

aninibinladen:


You sit in a one bedroom shanty in Mushin and turn yourself to a seer predicting how the North will vote because the one who has siphoned the wealth of Lagos is contesting.

Did you factor in the fact that 2019 the two major parties had a fulani man contesting against another fulani man and the election favoured the one who had a cult following?

Ask yourself the following questions:

1. Does Tinubu have the cult like following Buhari had in the North?

2. Are the ordinary Northeners (without prompting) campaigning for Tinubu like they did for Buahri in 2019 and 2015?

3. Will the Hausa/Fulani give up the Presindecy for a Kanuri Vice President knowing fully well the ambition of shettima?

4. With a Tinubu win, the Yoruba's take the Presidency. The kanuri's will take the VP while the SS or SE takes the senate presidency, where does this place the hausa/fulani bloc? Will they be willing to relinquish the number 1 or 2 position for the first time since 1999 for a possible 4th position (which the NC might also be vying for), will the hausa/fulani accept to be without power knowing fully well they can easily get the Presidency?

5. Have you bothered following SM platforms or groups where northerners dominate? Have you bothered to feel the pulse of the northerners on the streets? If you have, does their utterances look like a people who will be voting Tinubu?

6. You made reference to the low % of votes Atiku got in some states but what you failed to understand was that it was a 'family' affair hence the result. Is Tinubu a Northerner?

7. You think Northerners are f.00ls and dummies and so a whole lot of you assume they don't read the things you put up on SM. The SW will vote en-mass for one of theirs but the f.00lish northerners will not replicate same up North because they're m.ugus right? You and your likes say this every day!

The two states certain for Tinubu in the North are Borno and Yobe. Kwara he might have but that's where it ends. Buhari himself won Nasarawa in 2019 with the slightest of margins, is it Tinubu that will come and better Buhari's numbers there? Can Lalong muscle anything in Plateau?

2019 will not be 2023, the dynamics and the actors are different. There will still be realignment in the coming weeks and as the election draws nearer the SE will be faced with the choice of either going ahead with Obi knowing he doesn't have traction in the North, going with Tinubu knowing a Tinubu win will mean waiting for 16 years for another shot or going with Atiku and waiting 8 years.

Instead of sitting in your Mushin room and allocating Northern votes, try to build your data by sampling the Opinions of northerners in the streets of Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi etc and on SM platforms like BBC hausa & VOA hausa. Trust me, once you do this, you will reset back to factory settings.

Aufbauh:



Kai......so you lack simple comprehension of a clear statement. I'd wish I can write your mother tongue.


I simply mean that the presidential candidate of the sitting governor cannot go below second position in that state. This implies that Tinubu can't go below 2nd position in all the APC states in the worst case scenario.

I never mean that a sitting governor can't lose his state to an opposition presidential candidate.

Meanwhile have you check the recent SBM projection?

aninibinladen:


Of what use is second position when in 2015 the second position in Katsina got 98,000 while the first got 1.3m? What use was it in Kano when it was 215,000 against 1.9m or Jigawa's 142,000 to 885,000?

Delude yourself, I told you to follow platforms where northerners are talking and make informed analysis instead of this arm chair projections!

I put it to you that asides the Governors, their aides and some journey men, majority of the core northerners are not discussing Tinubu.

Aufbauh:


Reality beckons so be ready to go back your Biafra or death as usual.
https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1603367064273670146?t=L2v1MQn-RHzRJAL8FupqAg&s=08
This is not too different from my projection except that they put some of the States BAT could easily win as Too close to call.

Aufbauh:


My projection is actually magnanimous to Obi as you & I know that Obi can't get 25% in Adamawa.
25% of vote cast is not really an easy figure to achieve. It's quarter of a whole.

I only got to know in my research that Atiku as a election veteran got barely 19% in kano 2019.

aninibinladen:


I thought you were a smart guy but alas..

In 2019, Pollster, Williams and Associates predicted an Atiku win.

The Economist also predicted a win by Atiku in 2019.

Bloomberg also saw Atiku winning, these are reputable organisations and not some SBM abi SDM.

By the way, We2geda has predicted a win by Obi in 2023.
Yet Atiku didn't win then, how?

You get my drift?

Oga stop wasting your time, go to BBC hausa or VOA hausa and smell the soup that is cooking.

BlazinGlory40:


Keep deceiving yourself. So northerners will vote tinubu over atiku? The joke is on you sir.

aninibinladen:


I thought you were a smart guy but alas..

In 2019, Pollster, Williams and Associates predicted an Atiku win.

The Economist also predicted a win by Atiku in 2019.

Bloomberg also saw Atiku winning, these are reputable organisations and not some SBM abi SDM.

By the way, We2geda has predicted a win by Obi in 2023.

You get my drift?

Oga stop wasting your time, go to BBC hausa or VOA hausa and smell the soup that is cooking.

BlazinGlory40:


Keep deceiving yourself. So northerners will vote tinubu over atiku? The joke is on you sir.

aninibinladen:


You sit in a one bedroom shanty in Mushin and turn yourself to a seer predicting how the North will vote because the one who has siphoned the wealth of Lagos is contesting.

Did you factor in the fact that 2019 the two major parties had a fulani man contesting against another fulani man and the election favoured the one who had a cult following?

Ask yourself the following questions:

1. Does Tinubu have the cult like following Buhari had in the North?

2. Are the ordinary Northeners (without prompting) campaigning for Tinubu like they did for Buahri in 2019 and 2015?

3. Will the Hausa/Fulani give up the Presindecy for a Kanuri Vice President knowing fully well the ambition of shettima?

4. With a Tinubu win, the Yoruba's take the Presidency. The kanuri's will take the VP while the SS or SE takes the senate presidency, where does this place the hausa/fulani bloc? Will they be willing to relinquish the number 1 or 2 position for the first time since 1999 for a possible 4th position (which the NC might also be vying for), will the hausa/fulani accept to be without power knowing fully well they can easily get the Presidency?

5. Have you bothered following SM platforms or groups where northerners dominate? Have you bothered to feel the pulse of the northerners on the streets? If you have, does their utterances look like a people who will be voting Tinubu?

6. You made reference to the low % of votes Atiku got in some states but what you failed to understand was that it was a 'family' affair hence the result. Is Tinubu a Northerner?

7. You think Northerners are f.00ls and dummies and so a whole lot of you assume they don't read the things you put up on SM. The SW will vote en-mass for one of theirs but the f.00lish northerners will not replicate same up North because they're m.ugus right? You and your likes say this every day!

The two states certain for Tinubu in the North are Borno and Yobe. Kwara he might have but that's where it ends. Buhari himself won Nasarawa in 2019 with the slightest of margins, is it Tinubu that will come and better Buhari's numbers there? Can Lalong muscle anything in Plateau?

2019 will not be 2023, the dynamics and the actors are different. There will still be realignment in the coming weeks and as the election draws nearer the SE will be faced with the choice of either going ahead with Obi knowing he doesn't have traction in the North, going with Tinubu knowing a Tinubu win will mean waiting for 16 years for another shot or going with Atiku and waiting 8 years.

Instead of sitting in your Mushin room and allocating Northern votes, try to build your data by sampling the Opinions of northerners in the streets of Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi etc and on SM platforms like BBC hausa & VOA hausa. Trust me, once you do this, you will reset back to factory settings.

Gossipninja:


You dey mind these Urchins.

Tinubu will win in South West, but Atiku won't win the North.

Their eyes go clear from their delusion

aninibinladen:


You sit in a one bedroom shanty in Mushin and turn yourself to a seer predicting how the North will vote because the one who has siphoned the wealth of Lagos is contesting.

Did you factor in the fact that 2019 the two major parties had a fulani man contesting against another fulani man and the election favoured the one who had a cult following?

Ask yourself the following questions:

1. Does Tinubu have the cult like following Buhari had in the North?

2. Are the ordinary Northeners (without prompting) campaigning for Tinubu like they did for Buahri in 2019 and 2015?

3. Will the Hausa/Fulani give up the Presindecy for a Kanuri Vice President knowing fully well the ambition of shettima?

4. With a Tinubu win, the Yoruba's take the Presidency. The kanuri's will take the VP while the SS or SE takes the senate presidency, where does this place the hausa/fulani bloc? Will they be willing to relinquish the number 1 or 2 position for the first time since 1999 for a possible 4th position (which the NC might also be vying for), will the hausa/fulani accept to be without power knowing fully well they can easily get the Presidency?

5. Have you bothered following SM platforms or groups where northerners dominate? Have you bothered to feel the pulse of the northerners on the streets? If you have, does their utterances look like a people who will be voting Tinubu?

6. You made reference to the low % of votes Atiku got in some states but what you failed to understand was that it was a 'family' affair hence the result. Is Tinubu a Northerner?

7. You think Northerners are f.00ls and dummies and so a whole lot of you assume they don't read the things you put up on SM. The SW will vote en-mass for one of theirs but the f.00lish northerners will not replicate same up North because they're m.ugus right? You and your likes say this every day!

The two states certain for Tinubu in the North are Borno and Yobe. Kwara he might have but that's where it ends. Buhari himself won Nasarawa in 2019 with the slightest of margins, is it Tinubu that will come and better Buhari's numbers there? Can Lalong muscle anything in Plateau?

2019 will not be 2023, the dynamics and the actors are different. There will still be realignment in the coming weeks and as the election draws nearer the SE will be faced with the choice of either going ahead with Obi knowing he doesn't have traction in the North, going with Tinubu knowing a Tinubu win will mean waiting for 16 years for another shot or going with Atiku and waiting 8 years.

Instead of sitting in your Mushin room and allocating Northern votes, try to build your data by sampling the Opinions of northerners in the streets of Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi etc and on SM platforms like BBC hausa & VOA hausa. Trust me, once you do this, you will reset back to factory settings.

Aufbauh:


Interestingly I never predicted Atiku to win in 2019 so your warp reference is sterile.

If you're one of those ndi miracle workers then wait for your disappointed time which is imminent.

Nigeria presidency is not Anambra state governorship election boy. Obi himself knows that he can't win except for his ever believing zombidients.

Aufbauh:
2023 Presidential Election Projection by Voting Patterns and Trends.

Although the 2023 Presidential election is expected to have more voters turnout due to reinvigorated electorate interest occasioned by improved electoral law and the competitiveness of the aspirants. Voting patterns and trends however will be an important clue on what is to come and shouldn't be undermine.

There's therefore no gainsaying that entrenched political interest and party structure as expected will play vital roles in this phenomenon. This is why political party and politicians alike speak to their strongholds, weak areas and swing locations.

Again every grassroot politician and political player understand this scientific process of politics through careful observation, analysis and inference.

So a careful study of this phenomenon can readily suggest which state(s) will be won and lose by a certain political party.

To predict the future we need a recourse to the event of the past.

It is noteworthy that the voting patterns and trends since 1999 hasn't change much hence could be an important guide in projecting the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. However the only notable alteration to this phenomenon in every election year is in the margin of votes.

My critical study of the Nigeria Presidential election result by states from 1993 through to 2019 has helped in arriving at this conclusion.

Suffice me to say that my projection was hinged primarily on 2019 presidential election result. The reason being that it is the most recent, most improved & credible since the 1993 election, and then the most practical or feasible as the case may be.

My projection shall be a breakdown analysis of the four front line political party by geopolitical zones.

North West Zone.
Underlying Fact:
The zone contribute more in vote to the electoral fortune of any aspirant, and it's also known to vote in one direction enbloc.
No wonder In 2019 presidential election the main opposition the PDP could only managed to secured the electoral requirement of 25% in just two states out of the seven states in the zone!
Sokoto (39%) and Jigawa (25%)

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP and NNPP is expected to win at least one state from the zone but will fail to secure the 25% in all the states in the zone.

The LP will perform woefully in this zone and will not be able to secure the 25% in any of the States.

North East Zone:
Underlying Fact: The predominantly Muslim states of Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe always tends to vote along same political interest. The two others are considered to be swing states.
Did you know that the main opposition party the PDP whose candidate Atiku is from the same zone score the least vote percentage in the two states of Borno (7%) and Yobe(8%) across the country? Fact!

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP is expected to win at least two states from the zone but will fail to secured the 25% in at least two states in the zone.

The NNPP is expected to make an appreciable outing in Bauchi state but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Taraba and Adamawa state, but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.
The stronger Atiku wax in this zone, the weaker the performance of Mr Obi.

Summarily any state in the NW and NE that the PDP didn't get up to 50% in the 2019 presidential election, the LP won't secure the electoral requirement of 25% in such state. QED!

North Central zone:
Underlying fact:
Most of the states in the zone are swing state except Niger and Kwara! The implication of this fact is that any of the legacy party can swing either state to it side. Although the winning margin is always minimal.
The APC won 4 out of the 6 states in the zone in 2019 while the PDP won Plateau and Benue state.

Voters considerations: Partly Religious, Party interest and Structural influence.

Observation:
The APC is expected to sustain their 2019 feat by winning at least 4 states in the zone due to their entrenched political structure that will be coordinated by their sitting Governors. It will also secure the electoral requirement of 25% in all the states of the zone.

The PDP however will be affected by the Obi's influence in the Christian dominated States of Plateau and Benue. The PDP structure will however help the party to secure the mandatory 25% in at least 5 states.

The NNPP will have a marginal outing in at least two states of the zone but will fail to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will make an appreciable outing in the zone by securing the mandatory 25% in at least two states.

South West Zone;
Underlying fact; Interestingly voting trends has shown that the SWern states can be swing.
However the marginal strong third force which is expected to split the opposition votes, and the entrenched political interest of the APC/ home boy effect in the zone will give the APC the clear lead.

Voters Considerations: Credibility and Party Interest.

Observation:
The APC won in four states of the zone in 2019, and it is expected to take a clear lead in all the states of the zone come 2023.

The PDP won in two states of the zone Oyo(41%) and Ondo(47%). However the party is expected to struggle in the zone come 2023 due to the underlying fact.
The party is expected to secure the mandatory 25% requirement in at least two states of the zone only if the sitting Governors in those States decide to work for the party.

The NNPP will have a poor outing in the entire south.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Lagos with the prospect of securing the 25% requirement. Being an offshoot of the PDP, it'll take some votes from the PDP stronghold in the zone thereby depleting the PDP votes and enhancing the winning margin of the APC.
If the LP can put in more work they can be fortunate to benefit from the PDP crisis and secure 25% in at least two states of the zone.

South East zone:
Underlying fact: The zone is the only zone in the South that vote along the same direction and equally give their preferred candidate bloc vote.
The zone equally has the lowest voters turnout among the six geopolitical zones since the advent of the use of the card reader machine in an election.

Voters considerations: Ethnic, Religious and regional interest.

Observation:
The APC will have their poorest outing in the zone as the party managed in 2019 to secured the 25% in only Imo state. It woeful performance across the country is in Anambra state with a mere 5%. Although it is expected to do better in 2023, however the LP candidate home boy effect will affect fortune of any other political party in the zone.
Notwithstanding, the party is expected to secure the electoral requirement in at least one state (Ebony most likely) from the zone.

The PDP will be the biggest loser in the zone as the zone was once it unnegotiable and undisputed stronghold.
The PDP will finds it difficult to secure the mandatory 25% in any of the States as the zone is expected to turn up for their home boy. Also the PDP internal crisis with the G5 will equally affect the party in securing the requirement.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP is expected to win the five States in the zone due to the above stated underlying fact.

South South Zone:
Underlying fact: Notwithstanding that the zone almost vote along same political direction, it tends to be generous to any aspirant who can work hard enough to reap from it pluralism and diverse interest.
The effect of political structure and ethnic negotiations can not be overemphasize in the zone.
The zone remain the most unpredictable
Zone in the 2023 due to multiple interest and factors.

Voters Considerations: Party and Structural/Ethnic interest.

Observation:
The APC secured the electoral requirement of 25% in five States of the zone in 2019 and is bill to repeat such feat in 2023. However it is envisaged that the party will do better than 2019 in the zone and may likely swing Bayelsa state.

The PDP will have a mountain to climb in other to repeat it feat of 2019 in the zone.
The internal crisis with the G5, the crave for a president of southern extraction and Obi's candidacy are all factors that will affect the PDP in the zone.
However the PDP is expected to win at least two states in the zone and secure the mandatory 25% in at least four states of the zone.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP will have a marginal outing in the zone by taking advantage of the factors militating against the PDP candidate.
The party will put up a good show in at least four states of the zone but it's unclear whether the LP can muster the number to win any of the States in the zone. It will however secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least four states of the zone.

Summarily:
The APC candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 31 States of the federation (NW=7) (NE=6) (NC=6) (SW=6) (SE=1) ((SS =5)

The PDP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 16 states of the federation. (NW=2) (NE=4) (NC=4) (SE=0) (SW=2) (SS=4)

The NNPP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 2 states of the federation.(NW=2) (NE=0) (NC=0) (SE=0) (SW=0) (SS=0)

The LP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 14 States of the federation. (NW=0) (NE=0) (NC=3) (SW=2) (SS=4) (SE=5)

Verdict:
From the voting patterns and trends it is obvious the the APC presidential candidate is the only candidate that has the spread and reach to win the election by simple majority and also satisfying the electoral requirement of 25% in the 24 states of the federation.

Conclusion: This phenomenon has shown that politics is a scientific process that requires critical observation, analysis and inference. Election itself is not a big bang product that create shockers outside it possibilities. This is why election is in numbers and not in spurious innuendos.

With the facts and figures available it is therefore obvious that the major advantage of the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election will stem from the vote splitting among the main opposition party.
Hence by summing up the voting percentage of the main opposition party(the PDP) that severed lately into LP, NNPP and G5 shows that the opposition party might have stand a better chance against the ruling party only if they were united in one frontier. Just imagine Atiku/Obi ticket with Kwankwaso still in the PDP and having the full backing of the G5 Governors.

There's no gainsaying therefore that a vote for Obi in the south and some part of NC is a vote for Tinubu. Also a vote for Kwankwaso in the north is a share vote with Atiku and an added advantage to Tinubu.

Election in naija no be by much cappings but in more vote counting
Seun
Mynd44
OAMJ4
nlfpmod
seunmsg
LeoDeKing
Moh247
Okoroawusa
plaindealear
Omenka
NgeneKwenu
Arrewa

tiger28:
See this joker!

GEJ ,a Southerner WON OVERWHELMINGLY in the NORTH against Atiku( a Northerner)

OBJ ,a Southerner WON against A NORTHERNER.

I am a Bona-fide Northerner and I will trash the notion that a Northerner cannot vote against another Northerner.....we vote for party!

Tinubu will win this election because he understands Politics, who to align with and who to focus his attention on......Not wasting his time with Social media nonsense.He is too serious!

The other ones are just jokers, One is a Pompous Camerooninan who stays in Dubai more than in Nigeria.

The other foreigner is a Biafran who is just busy campaigning all over the diaspora as if the diasporeans will come to Nigeria to vote. You see him visiting Churches that he never visited before........
HOW will this move make my almajiri Brothers to vote for himHis Vice is even a Mauritanian .

Tinubu is the ONLY TRUE Nigerian here.

aninibinladen:


Boy? My friend earlier on you basically shared you work, school and life history here. Going by those numbers you are not only a boy but an infant!

I have told you what to do.

Tinubu has no traction in the core North, the only difference between he and Obi in the North is the two states of Borno & Yobe and the Governors masquerading around him.

The Core North is for Atiku & Kwankwaso, no amount of literature or delusion will change this.

aninibinladen:


Boy? My friend earlier on you basically shared you work, school and life history here. Going by those numbers you are not only a boy but an infant!

I have told you what to do.

Tinubu has no traction in the core North, the only difference between he and Obi in the North is the two states of Borno & Yobe and the Governors masquerading around him.

The Core North is for Atiku & Kwankwaso, no amount of literature or delusion will change this.

aninibinladen:


You sit in a one bedroom shanty in Mushin and turn yourself to a seer predicting how the North will vote because the one who has siphoned the wealth of Lagos is contesting.

Did you factor in the fact that 2019 the two major parties had a fulani man contesting against another fulani man and the election favoured the one who had a cult following?

Ask yourself the following questions:

1. Does Tinubu have the cult like following Buhari had in the North?

2. Are the ordinary Northeners (without prompting) campaigning for Tinubu like they did for Buahri in 2019 and 2015?

3. Will the Hausa/Fulani give up the Presindecy for a Kanuri Vice President knowing fully well the ambition of shettima?

4. With a Tinubu win, the Yoruba's take the Presidency. The kanuri's will take the VP while the SS or SE takes the senate presidency, where does this place the hausa/fulani bloc? Will they be willing to relinquish the number 1 or 2 position for the first time since 1999 for a possible 4th position (which the NC might also be vying for), will the hausa/fulani accept to be without power knowing fully well they can easily get the Presidency?

5. Have you bothered following SM platforms or groups where northerners dominate? Have you bothered to feel the pulse of the northerners on the streets? If you have, does their utterances look like a people who will be voting Tinubu?

6. You made reference to the low % of votes Atiku got in some states but what you failed to understand was that it was a 'family' affair hence the result. Is Tinubu a Northerner?

7. You think Northerners are f.00ls and dummies and so a whole lot of you assume they don't read the things you put up on SM. The SW will vote en-mass for one of theirs but the f.00lish northerners will not replicate same up North because they're m.ugus right? You and your likes say this every day!

The two states certain for Tinubu in the North are Borno and Yobe. Kwara he might have but that's where it ends. Buhari himself won Nasarawa in 2019 with the slightest of margins, is it Tinubu that will come and better Buhari's numbers there? Can Lalong muscle anything in Plateau?

2019 will not be 2023, the dynamics and the actors are different. There will still be realignment in the coming weeks and as the election draws nearer the SE will be faced with the choice of either going ahead with Obi knowing he doesn't have traction in the North, going with Tinubu knowing a Tinubu win will mean waiting for 16 years for another shot or going with Atiku and waiting 8 years.

Instead of sitting in your Mushin room and allocating Northern votes, try to build your data by sampling the Opinions of northerners in the streets of Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Bauchi etc and on SM platforms like BBC hausa & VOA hausa. Trust me, once you do this, you will reset back to factory settings.